Guild Wars 2

Broken forums are broken.

Jana.6831:

Got 3 keys as a drop after the patch. Don’t ask me how many chests, got a few more than usual in 80 zones though.

You have gotten 3 BL keys to drop from Mobs in the last 6 days?
Jana do yourself a favor and play your nearest lottery IMMEDIATELY! Lady Luck is indeed watching over you.

I unfortunately, dwell on the other side of the equation. Since launch I run at about 1000hrs per key.

Yalora Istairiea.6287:

Jana.6831:

Got 3 keys as a drop after the patch. Don’t ask me how many chests, got a few more than usual in 80 zones though.

You have gotten BL3 keys to drop from Mobs in the last 6 days?
Jana do yourself a favor and play your nearest lottery IMMEDIATELY! Lady Luck is indeed watching over you.

I unfortunately, dwell on the other side of the equation. Since launch I run at about 1000hrs per key.

For real, that’s amazing. I’m still at a whopping zero. Since early release.

Yalora Istairiea.6287:

Jana.6831:

Got 3 keys as a drop after the patch. Don’t ask me how many chests, got a few more than usual in 80 zones though.

You have gotten 3 BL keys to drop from Mobs in the last 6 days?
Jana do yourself a favor and play your nearest lottery IMMEDIATELY! Lady Luck is indeed watching over you.

I unfortunately, dwell on the other side of the equation. Since launch I run at about 1000hrs per key.

Actually, it would be a bad time to play since the luckier one gets the less likely something just as lucky to happen is. It’s like winning the jackpot or any large amount on slots. Just take your winnings and get out of town.

In 3 years I’ve gotten 6 keys. I’m eagerly awaiting this increase and totally expect ANet to be raining keys down upon us all.

If that doesn’t happen maybe ANet could put in a gemstore purchase that unlocks “It’s Raining Keys!” For a mere 4000 gems your account will get a key a day from killing a Moa.

Well, to begin. 2 key drops in over 9000 hours played. Since this change I’ve completed 9 maps, working on my 10th without a key drop or a key as a map completion reward, an I’ve looted a total of 7 black lion chests. I see no increase anywhere, except the price of skins slowly beginning to get further and further out of reach.

Agemnon.4608:

Yalora Istairiea.6287:

Jana.6831:

Got 3 keys as a drop after the patch. Don’t ask me how many chests, got a few more than usual in 80 zones though.

You have gotten 3 BL keys to drop from Mobs in the last 6 days?
Jana do yourself a favor and play your nearest lottery IMMEDIATELY! Lady Luck is indeed watching over you.

I unfortunately, dwell on the other side of the equation. Since launch I run at about 1000hrs per key.

Actually, it would be a bad time to play since the luckier one gets the less likely something just as lucky to happen is. It’s like winning the jackpot or any large amount on slots. Just take your winnings and get out of town.

Well, in an effort to not get off topic chasing Probability Theory down the rabbit hole. Let me just say as someone who generally is not on speaking terms with the Lady of Luck; sometimes, all be it very rarely, but sometimes, I do get on a lucky streak, but only for very short periods of time. In these rare occasions I tend to play the luck streak for its short run and then, as you say, ‘get out of town’.

So bringing this back on the OP’s topic, since I only see 1 key in about 1000hrs, only having 6 days since the patch, would not allow enough time to make a viable sampled determination.

As for those of you who have had a lesser drop rate then myself, I am truly sorry.

I have yet to get a key drop since the recent change.
ANet has made it so you get one key per week maximum (per account) from doing the personal story stuff to cut down on key farming.
I’m assuming that the drop rate from monster kills will be based on this somehow, probably either slightly more often or slightly less often.

Remember, farming keys takes actual cash money out of ANet’s pockets. That’s why they nerfed it. If you spend real life money to buy keys, ANet gets money. They are well within their rights, but it seems kind of petty.

I predict that the cost of black lion skins will go up so high that the market will practically dry up. Most of the skins aren’t that good anyhow. Trade in skins that cost 1 ticket will dominate by far. Older skins will not be worth it. Who wants to farm for six months to get enough keys to get a skin? What would you charge for such a skin if you sold it? I’d want at least a thousand gold, but that’s me.

Based on my calculations, if you farm keys under the current system and get 52 keys a year, you’ll get enough tickets/ticket scraps to have 3 or just under 3 tickets. Assuming you buy the skins when they first come out, that’s 3 skins a year.

This is based on the drop rate of 0.323 ticket scraps per chest and 0.02 full tickets per chest. So, it takes roughly 31 chests to get 10 ticket scraps and 50 chests to get one full ticket. In 52 weeks you would expect to get 1 full ticket and 17 ticket scraps (on average). Of course some people will get lucky and some people will get unlucky. Some people won’t get that full ticket even after a full year of farming.

The psychological appeal of buying keys and opening chests is kind of like playing a slot machine or scratching off those things on lottery tickets. To some people this sort of thing is horribly addictive and they are the ones that will spend cash to buy keys (that and people who are actually wealthy in real life). Most people won’t see the appeal.

Cyninja.2954:

The hypothetical situation looks way bleaker when applied to actual drop rates, does it not?

Bleak hypotheticals are going to look bleaker than optimistic ones. Your numbers aren’t “actual” drop rates; they are just your best wild guess based on extrapolating from your experience.

The point of the original thought experiment was to show that the replacement drop rate does not have to be noticeable to make up for the difference between pre-farming and post-farming. I never claimed to be offering “actual” or even “likely” rates — they are just plausible enough to illustrate the concept.

my tl;dr remains the same: we just don’t have enough data to make predictions.

“Remember, farming keys takes actual cash money out of ANet’s pockets. "

Maybe kinda but those of us who buy gems will buy them anyway for outfits and converting gems to gold for guaranteed dyes and mats for crafting ascended since even loads of farming can’t net you enough. We’re just buying other stuff instead of keys instead of keys cutting into our preplanned budget.

Whether or not key farmers were few or numerous, imo one thing they did was put a steady, downward pressure on the price of new skins. I don’t think most key farmers were sensitive to the costs of farming keys. The time was free. Selling the results to craft to level, offset some or all of the costs so that was free. So when many key farmers got a skin to sell, it was a “free skin”. This meant they didn’t price it according to the true cost to acquire. The “free” key farmed skins undercut the skins bought with gemstore keys.

Now though even for key farmers the price is higher. Presumably a key farmer who gets a skin after 6 months of key farming is going to value it higher and either use the skin for themselves or not be as willing to sell cheaply. (Of course this depends on people actually acting rationally when it comes to pricing and not just getting whatever they can).

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Cyninja.2954:

The hypothetical situation looks way bleaker when applied to actual drop rates, does it not?

Bleak hypotheticals are going to look bleaker than optimistic ones. Your numbers aren’t “actual” drop rates; they are just your best wild guess based on extrapolating from your experience.

The point of the original thought experiment was to show that the replacement drop rate does not have to be noticeable to make up for the difference between pre-farming and post-farming. I never claimed to be offering “actual” or even “likely” rates — they are just plausible enough to illustrate the concept.

my tl;dr remains the same: we just don’t have enough data to make predictions.

Absolutely true, I stated so that the numbers I used are subjective and derived from what people have been reporting as their drop rate.

Does not change the fact that going by this subjective drop rate, we are miles away from the drop rate needed to in any shape or form compensate for the loss of keyfarming.

Why? Because keys would have to be falling out of the sky literally in order to make even a dent in the supply that was provided by keyfarmers.

Also, as was stated, supply developements on the TP favor the theory of key and opened black lion chests being behind what they used to be.

Almost 32 hours spent killing mobs in level 80 areas(Orr mostly), nothing.

INcrease is insignificant.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Nick Lentz.6982:

since launch of gw2, I have gotten 4. Since the “buff” 0, this is anets money we are talking about, they prolly only raised it 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000001%

Ahhhhh. But I think you’re missing something. What happens next after a few keys drop for Mr Average Player?

Let’s say they did raise it substantially. Let’s say the Mr Average Player who hasn’t been buying keys and didn’t do key runs now gets one key a month as a drop. Some time passes. One day he looks and he has 6 or 7 scraps. All he needs is a bit more and he could have a shiny new weapon skin. What can he do to get those last few scraps?

He could do key runs but at one a week it will take him around 2-3 months to get 3 or 4 more scraps. If he wants to get those last few scraps in a timely manner, he will need to buy keys. If keys drop more frequently but not too often then ANet gets key purchases from people who do not ordinarily buy.

Yupyupyup. It’s a good marketing stategy.
Some people buy lottery tickets. I buy BLC keys. I might have a teeny tiny problem ;P
Nah..I can resist, but that feeling I get when a key actually DOES drop? It’s like Christmas morning when I was a little kid! They have been dropping more frequently for me, and I’ve definitely seen an increase in keys as part of BLC chest loot. (actually, I think I’ve gotten more as chest loot than as world drops, but definitely at least 3 keys have dropped for me since the update, whereas I got maybe TWO in the rest of the time I’ve played since launch. The first time it happened I was so shocked. I didn’t even know they were part of the loot table.

Novuake.2691:

Almost 32 hours spent killing mobs in level 80 areas(Orr mostly), nothing.

INcrease is insignificant.

Are you farming, or are you playing as you would normally? I haven’t had any keys drop in Orr at all, but I have gotten them in other areas, including SW (once). Mostly I got them during map exploration activities and DE’s.

Guys and girls, you do realise 2 things happened with the change:

1: drop rate of black lion keys increased.

2: drop rate of black lion chests increased.

So while Anet are saying they giving us something, they are infact not, as the chests always had a higher drop rate so we got more chests than keys. So this will just be the same.

If they had just increased the drop rate of the keys alone then I believe we would see a difference. As for waiting until the data is in, there is no need.

Just check the data from the past 12 months, as nothing has changed.

Move along, nothing to see here.

Was Mining in Orr today .Ran into an event Daggerstormed a large amounts of incoming Undead boom Key think my fourth in three years:)

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

Guys and girls, you do realise 2 things happened with the change:

1: drop rate of black lion keys increased.

2: drop rate of black lion chests increased.

So while Anet are saying they giving us something, they are infact not, as the chests always had a higher drop rate so we got more chests than keys. So this will just be the same.

If they had just increased the drop rate of the keys alone then I believe we would see a difference. As for waiting until the data is in, there is no need.

Just check the data from the past 12 months, as nothing has changed.

Move along, nothing to see here.

I was scoring a BL chest almost daily, but recently I’ve been finding 2 or 3 after a couple of hours of PvE play. No keys though.

Mesada.1723:

Was Mining in Orr today .Ran into an event Daggerstormed a large amounts of incoming Undead boom Key think my fourth in three years:)

My past key drops have been from unexpected sources. But on my first day with an alt account, Ebonblade dropped from a bandit under the Shaemoor Fields Bridge, and a key dropped on water pipes defense. I had to mail a chest from my main account to use it. I got a Toxic Skale mini and some junk.

Renkencen.6127:

Ever since the patched, I have gotten 3 chest from EoTM but no keys so far. I’m guessing it must of been a 0.0001% increased.

or maybe a 100% increase on a 0.0000001% drop rate which would give us a whopping 0.0000002% chance.

Wasn’t much of a key farmer, I average 1 or 2 key runs a week so no big change for me. All I hope for is that this will speed up the return on the 1200g worth of BL weapons skins I have sitting in the TP.