Carapace Coat Box
I can’t disagree with the central point: tiny RNG is fine (in my opinion) for special rewards; it’s not ok to tie collections to it.
And worse, they already have a solution for this with BL skins: scraps — scraps are reasonably common while full tickets are not. So if you open a pile of BL chests, you are always making progress towards a ticket.
I wish they would do the same thing for
- Carapace coat boxes (one of the few that can’t be bought — in effect, bandit crests count as scraps for the other pieces)
- Amber-covered Insects (you have to depend on RNG)
- Similar items for the new maps.
At least, in the case of the new legendary/precursor collections, any RNG seems to be high enough that most everything drops with decent frequency.
Ironically enough, after posting this, my 2nd and 3rd runs both yielded coat boxes.
As relieved as I am, I still feel like many people had this content completely ruined for them by the decision to roadblock completion with a RNG drop…
Some of the achievements required are enough to make completion feel like quite an accomplishment, I really see no point in forcing people to repeat it over and over until they can hit the RNG… TWICE.
To those that will argue that all accounts are created equally and that RNG is RNG… I can tell you 100% for sure that is BS. I know too many people that have crazy successful luck with things like forging precursors, and it is far too consistent to be a coincidence or a statistical anomaly.
In an interview some time ago John Smith spoke about account RNG, and “outliers” and basically explained that there will be people that will consistently be rewarded with premium loot more often then the average player, and that there will also be an equal and opposite group that will basically never be rewarded as well as the average player. Not only did reading that make me cringe and think it was an absolutely terrible way to deal with “RANDOM Number Generation” but also, that it is not really random if the outcome is somehow manipulated to create these “outliers”.
But, like I said in my original post, I don’t usually take much issue with rolls, because I tend to do a little better then average, it just seems bizarre to me that Anet would knowingly create or even allow accounts to exist that would basically be born losers when it comes to RNG, that seems like a great way to make a terrible experience for those poor souls.
Anyways, good luck and have fun!
I honestly thought you got one the first time you killed Vinewrath and it was RNG after that.
There used to be many posts/threads lamenting the over-abundance of Coat Box drops. I know I still have many, many in the bank. They do seem to drop quite often; certainly more than any other.
Just the luck of the draw, I guess.
I honestly thought you got one the first time you killed Vinewrath and it was RNG after that.
That is how it works, yes. But you need all three coats for the achievement, so getting the next two coat boxes is RNG-gated.
There used to be many posts/threads lamenting the over-abundance of Coat Box drops. I know I still have many, many in the bank. They do seem to drop quite often; certainly more than any other.
Why do you still have them in the bank? I forget if you can salvage them or not, if so I did that, if not I think I’d just combine four of them in the forge, but either way, no point leaving them sitting around, they’re just boxes of rare armor bits.
you spend complaining about it on the forums, you’d be
done by now.”
….In an interview some time ago John Smith spoke about account RNG, and “outliers” and basically explained that there will be people that will consistently be rewarded with premium loot more often then the average player, and that there will also be an equal and opposite group that will basically never be rewarded as well as the average player….
How many times have I claimed some people have ‘lucky’ accounts and others don’t, only to be told to shut up? Reading what you wrote was like having a knife in the back from ANet, if this is true then it proves they manipulate RNG to reward only a small group in order to keep the carrot dangling in front of the rest of us. A carrot that almost invariably leads us tottering towards the gem store and trading post to buy the items we’re never lucky enough to get via drops.
It’d be interesting to see the ANet list of lucky accounts along with how much real money those people have spent buying gems. I’m almost at a point now where I’d bet the answer is next to none. It’s my suspicion now that spending real money on gems will forever remove you from the lucky list as ANet have broken that barrier and you can now be milked.
Welcome to the Internet, exposing characters since the early 80’s.
Ha! Just the opposite of the theory that spending money on Gems enables a ‘lucky’ account we’ve heard for years. /shakes head
Ha! Just the opposite of the theory that spending money on Gems enables a ‘lucky’ account we’ve heard for years. /shakes head
Not from me. If I disagree with a theory am I not allowed to advance my own in its place? Both are unproven and so until that changes both are equally valid or invalid depending upon your view.
Welcome to the Internet, exposing characters since the early 80’s.
….In an interview some time ago John Smith spoke about account RNG, and “outliers” and basically explained that there will be people that will consistently be rewarded with premium loot more often then the average player, and that there will also be an equal and opposite group that will basically never be rewarded as well as the average player….
How many times have I claimed some people have ‘lucky’ accounts and others don’t, only to be told to shut up? Reading what you wrote was like having a knife in the back from ANet, if this is true then it proves they manipulate RNG to reward only a small group in order to keep the carrot dangling in front of the rest of us. A carrot that almost invariably leads us tottering towards the gem store and trading post to buy the items we’re never lucky enough to get via drops.
It’d be interesting to see the ANet list of lucky accounts along with how much real money those people have spent buying gems. I’m almost at a point now where I’d bet the answer is next to none. It’s my suspicion now that spending real money on gems will forever remove you from the lucky list as ANet have broken that barrier and you can now be milked.
Outliers prove that the system is random. A lack of outliers would prove that the system was managed (so that lucky and unlucky accounts were things that could be toggled on and off in order to maintain an even level of drops).
Your conclusion is disproved by your premise.
Outliers prove that the system is random.
No.
Values should approach the mean as the number of samples is increased.
If I have two 6-sided dice, and one of them averages 3.5 after a very large number of rolls, and the other averages 5 and never rolls a 1, that is not proof that the dice are random; it is evidence that the second die is loaded.
Applying this to GW2 is a little more tricky: we don’t know how big a sample size we need, and self-reported perceived drop rates are full of biases.
(edited by The Red Squirrel.7039)
Ha! Just the opposite of the theory that spending money on Gems enables a ‘lucky’ account we’ve heard for years. /shakes head
If that is the case, where are my precursors lol.
If it was even $100 a good RNG drop I probably have every precursor by now lol.
Officer of Power Overwhelming[ZERK].
First term Forum PvE Specialist.
I honestly thought you got one the first time you killed Vinewrath and it was RNG after that.
That is how it works, yes. But you need all three coats for the achievement, so getting the next two coat boxes is RNG-gated.
Oh, thanks for the explanation. I don’t have any interest in the luminescent set, so I hadn’t gone out of my way for it (though I’m sure I have all 3 coats unlocked).
Outliers prove that the system is random.
No.
Values should approach the mean as the number of samples is increased.
If I have two 6-sided dice, and one of them averages 3.5 after a very large number of rolls, and the other averages 5 and never rolls a 1, that is not proof that the dice are random; it is evidence that the second die is loaded.
Applying this to GW2 is a little more tricky: we don’t know how big a sample size we need, and self-reported perceived drop rates are full of biases.
As always, the gambler’s fallacy rears its head.
The fact that there is a 1/6 chance for any number to come up does not mean that they will each show up equally because each and every time you throw the dice is completely independent from any other time you throw the dice. There is no force that exists in a random system to “even out” the results to match the odds.
In a random system, it is possible for an outlier to exist (such as a dice that is thrown 1 million times yet never turns up a 6). This is evidence that there is NOT a force acting on the result to correct it.
In a non-random system, results are modified to reduce outliers.
I’ve only been to the Silverwastes map once and just discovered it’s existence about a week ago because I’ve been away for the game for a good while.
I participated and killed the Mordemoth boss and he dropped the coat box for me first try.
Judging by your post… is it a rare drop and I was just one of those guys who happened to get it first time ever killing it?
I assumed it dropped the coat box relatively often considering my wife did it at the exact same time I did and received the box also.
I’ve only been to the Silverwastes map once and just discovered it’s existence about a week ago because I’ve been away for the game for a good while.
I participated and killed the Mordemoth boss and he dropped the coat box for me first try.
Judging by your post… is it a rare drop and I was just one of those guys who happened to get it first time ever killing it?
I assumed it dropped the coat box relatively often considering my wife did it at the exact same time I did and received the box also.
It was mentioned that it always drops on the first kill.
Outliers prove that the system is random.
No.
Values should approach the mean as the number of samples is increased.
If I have two 6-sided dice, and one of them averages 3.5 after a very large number of rolls, and the other averages 5 and never rolls a 1, that is not proof that the dice are random; it is evidence that the second die is loaded.
Except that each players is a serie of a number of X random die rolls. And even though that number might be quite high, I doubt it is high enough to smooth the difference of luck between players.
Take your dice and do 100;1000 or whatever high number you want, of separate series of 100 rolls. Most of these series will score an average of 3.5; +-1. But some of these series will score an average of 1-2 and 5-6. These are the expected outliers.
….In an interview some time ago John Smith spoke about account RNG, and “outliers” and basically explained that there will be people that will consistently be rewarded with premium loot more often then the average player, and that there will also be an equal and opposite group that will basically never be rewarded as well as the average player….
How many times have I claimed some people have ‘lucky’ accounts and others don’t, only to be told to shut up? Reading what you wrote was like having a knife in the back from ANet, if this is true then it proves they manipulate RNG to reward only a small group in order to keep the carrot dangling in front of the rest of us. A carrot that almost invariably leads us tottering towards the gem store and trading post to buy the items we’re never lucky enough to get via drops.
It’d be interesting to see the ANet list of lucky accounts along with how much real money those people have spent buying gems. I’m almost at a point now where I’d bet the answer is next to none. It’s my suspicion now that spending real money on gems will forever remove you from the lucky list as ANet have broken that barrier and you can now be milked.
Outliers prove that the system is random. A lack of outliers would prove that the system was managed (so that lucky and unlucky accounts were things that could be toggled on and off in order to maintain an even level of drops).
Your conclusion is disproved by your premise.
I think my point was missed. I’m not denying the existence of outliers, I’m taking issue with the statement that accounts (or people as John Smith said) will be consistently lucky. If RNG is random every time and has no reference to an account then what are the odds of any particular account consistently hitting the outlier or in this case receiving the best rewards? That was my point which then led me to assume there must be an external influence acting upon RNG.
Welcome to the Internet, exposing characters since the early 80’s.
….In an interview some time ago John Smith spoke about account RNG, and “outliers” and basically explained that there will be people that will consistently be rewarded with premium loot more often then the average player, and that there will also be an equal and opposite group that will basically never be rewarded as well as the average player….
How many times have I claimed some people have ‘lucky’ accounts and others don’t, only to be told to shut up? Reading what you wrote was like having a knife in the back from ANet, if this is true then it proves they manipulate RNG to reward only a small group in order to keep the carrot dangling in front of the rest of us. A carrot that almost invariably leads us tottering towards the gem store and trading post to buy the items we’re never lucky enough to get via drops.
It’d be interesting to see the ANet list of lucky accounts along with how much real money those people have spent buying gems. I’m almost at a point now where I’d bet the answer is next to none. It’s my suspicion now that spending real money on gems will forever remove you from the lucky list as ANet have broken that barrier and you can now be milked.
Outliers prove that the system is random. A lack of outliers would prove that the system was managed (so that lucky and unlucky accounts were things that could be toggled on and off in order to maintain an even level of drops).
Your conclusion is disproved by your premise.
I think my point was missed. I’m not denying the existence of outliers, I’m taking issue with the statement that accounts (or people as John Smith said) will be consistently lucky. If RNG is random every time and has no reference to an account then what are the odds of any particular account consistently hitting the outlier or in this case receiving the best rewards? That was my point which then led me to assume there must be an external influence acting upon RNG.
The odds of being an outlier are low, which is what makes them outliers and not the normal distribution.
If I roll a 6 10 times in a row I’m an outlier. Nothing external acted upon my die to make me an outlier, it was just a very rare occurrence that happened to happen.
Most of the people who feel they are unlucky are also contributing to that feeling by not taking the appropriate steps to maximize their chances. The so called “lucky” people tend to engage in many TIMES more dice throws which of course is going to have many TIMES more chances to pay out.
It’s a combination of outliers and playstyles.
I think my point was missed. I’m not denying the existence of outliers, I’m taking issue with the statement that accounts (or people as John Smith said) will be consistently lucky. If RNG is random every time and has no reference to an account then what are the odds of any particular account consistently hitting the outlier or in this case receiving the best rewards? That was my point which then led me to assume there must be an external influence acting upon RNG.
The odds are low. Very low. But high enough for them to be a visible occurrence. And there is no account that constantly drop a precursor and high value exo on each boss loot box.
To those that will argue that all accounts are created equally and that RNG is RNG… I can tell you 100% for sure that is BS. I know too many people that have crazy successful luck with things like forging precursors, and it is far too consistent to be a coincidence or a statistical anomaly.
In an interview some time ago John Smith spoke about account RNG, and “outliers” and basically explained that there will be people that will consistently be rewarded with premium loot more often then the average player, and that there will also be an equal and opposite group that will basically never be rewarded as well as the average player. Not only did reading that make me cringe and think it was an absolutely terrible way to deal with “RANDOM Number Generation” but also, that it is not really random if the outcome is somehow manipulated to create these “outliers”.
I think people have misunderstood the quote mentioned above. What he meant was that, as a natural result of randomness, there will always be some people who experience the “outlier” phenomenon (both positively and negatively), however this is not to say that it has been manipulated – simply that this is the way the dice roll some times!