Guild Wars 2

Hello everyone,

I have been saving up some champion bags in my bank for the last couple of few weeks. I was wondering when I should open them. From my own analysis I could split this decision into two parts:

• In the economy blog posted by Arenanet there was some information about an upcoming nerf to salvaging. Since every champion bag gives a green item this should without a doubt affect the value of the bags.

• Also, I was wondering whether the content of a champion bag is determined on drop or determined when you open it? Will I get potential new HoT drops from the champion bags I got in the last couple of weeks?

The only thing we know for certain is salvage nerf. Anything else is a gamble and very speculative. I’d open them now.

Noah.4756:

Hello everyone,

I have been saving up some champion bags in my bank for the last couple of few weeks. I was wondering when I should open them. From my own analysis I could split this decision into two parts:

• In the economy blog posted by Arenanet there was some information about an upcoming nerf to salvaging. Since every champion bag gives a green item this should without a doubt affect the value of the bags.

• Also, I was wondering whether the content of a champion bag is determined on drop or determined when you open it? Will I get potential new HoT drops from the champion bags I got in the last couple of weeks?

Concerning two, you will get new drops from your old bags, if they decide to adjust the loot tables.

I saved mine, just in case they do it.

Those who know the answer to your question, can’t tell you. Those who try to tell you, don’t know. It’s all speculation.

I’ve stored several types of containers in the past, in anticipation of a massive game upheaval. I’ve “guessed” correctly one out of four times. (That sounds bad, until you remember that if I guess correctly this time, it would be 2/5, which is as close to 50-50 as I could get with only five tries.)

tl;dr flip a coin: if you’re right, great; if you’re wrong, you can blame an inanimate object for your losses.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Those who know the answer to your question, can’t tell you. Those who try to tell you, don’t know. It’s all speculation.

I’ve stored several types of containers in the past, in anticipation of a massive game upheaval. I’ve “guessed” correctly one out of four times. (That sounds bad, until you remember that if I guess correctly this time, it would be 2/5, which is as close to 50-50 as I could get with only five tries.)

tl;dr flip a coin: if you’re right, great; if you’re wrong, you can blame an inanimate object for your losses.

Actually, 3/5 is as close to 50-50 as 2/5.

What do i win?

Maybe open half now and half later?

I didn’t know about this nerf – I doubt many people do and now ive read it as someone who is sitting on a lot of champ bags and quietly levelling a character to level 53 I feel really hacked off..

‘Despite keeping a heavy sink of materials in the new endgame weapon journeys, the changes were nowhere close to balancing the current numbers . To help get us closer to where we want to be, we’ll simultaneously roll out changes to the salvaging of some materials’

Have I actually got this right? the well known pretty rubbish loot drops in this game are actually going to be nerfed? as if 2 blues and green wasn’t bad enough they are now going to salvage into less sellable mats because thewy think we need more scarcity?

Why arnt people seeing the potential here that drops are going to be even worse? why arnt people getting annoyed? have I missed something here?!

Rococo.8347:

I didn’t know about this nerf – I doubt many people do and now ive read it as someone who is sitting on a lot of champ bags and quietly levelling a character to level 53 I feel really hacked off..

‘Despite keeping a heavy sink of materials in the new endgame weapon journeys, the changes were nowhere close to balancing the current numbers . To help get us closer to where we want to be, we’ll simultaneously roll out changes to the salvaging of some materials’

Have I actually got this right? the well known pretty rubbish loot drops in this game are actually going to be nerfed? as if 2 blues and green wasn’t bad enough they are now going to salvage into less sellable mats because thewy think we need more scarcity?

Why arnt people seeing the potential here that drops are going to be even worse? why arnt people getting annoyed? have I missed something here?!

Maybe you missed the rest of the blog post? “Some of these changes will reduce output to help us maintain scarcity, and some will rebalance heavily input materials with more rare materials to help even out some of the variation of scarcity we currently have.” Less gossamer and thick leather sections, more wool and linen? Who knows?

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Those who know the answer to your question, can’t tell you. Those who try to tell you, don’t know. It’s all speculation.

I’ve stored several types of containers in the past, in anticipation of a massive game upheaval. I’ve “guessed” correctly one out of four times. (That sounds bad, until you remember that if I guess correctly this time, it would be 2/5, which is as close to 50-50 as I could get with only five tries.)

tl;dr flip a coin: if you’re right, great; if you’re wrong, you can blame an inanimate object for your losses.

Actually, 3/5 is as close to 50-50 as 2/5.

What do i win?

Actually, you don’t win. :P
as I could get with only five tries as Was Na has tried four times with only one more try remaining, with the one success, 2/5 is as close as he can get, with the one extra

rhapsody.3615:

Rococo.8347:

I didn’t know about this nerf – I doubt many people do and now ive read it as someone who is sitting on a lot of champ bags and quietly levelling a character to level 53 I feel really hacked off..

‘Despite keeping a heavy sink of materials in the new endgame weapon journeys, the changes were nowhere close to balancing the current numbers . To help get us closer to where we want to be, we’ll simultaneously roll out changes to the salvaging of some materials’

Have I actually got this right? the well known pretty rubbish loot drops in this game are actually going to be nerfed? as if 2 blues and green wasn’t bad enough they are now going to salvage into less sellable mats because thewy think we need more scarcity?

Why arnt people seeing the potential here that drops are going to be even worse? why arnt people getting annoyed? have I missed something here?!

Maybe you missed the rest of the blog post? “Some of these changes will reduce output to help us maintain scarcity, and some will rebalance heavily input materials with more rare materials to help even out some of the variation of scarcity we currently have.” Less gossamer and thick leather sections, more wool and linen? Who knows?

Keep in mind that gossamer is rarer than silk so it won’t be totally great. At least with orihalcum you could forge into sword blades and make some really nice weapons like firebringer and infinite light.

No – I didn’t miss the rest of the blog post I just posted and quoted the salient points – regardless…

‘“Some of these changes will reduce output to help us maintain scarcity,’ still means those 2 blues and a green will now net you even less gold than they did before – because this isn’t a straight – replace kittene cheapo mats with those more in demand because only SOME mat salvages will be rebalanced and also salvage drops will still remain level dependant – to deal with the issue of hardly any linen requires giving linen to higher armor/weapon level salvages and I doubt that’s going to happen

…Scarcity of salvage mats is because hardly anyone has many low level characters and it isn’t like WoW where you could just take your Vet to Hinterlands and knock everything out for those level mats…

Bottom line they will be reducing the amount of mats you get in many cases and even when they are replacing cheap mats with hose more in demand the end price will lower on the TP – so you will still be getting LESS over all out of salvaging those loot bags – that’s my take home from it and I don’t like it one bit.

In most cases when they “adjusted” contents of the champ bags, it was down not up. Yes, there might be new drops (mats and unique weapons), but they will likely be HoT-specific, and thus will drop from HoT-specific champ bags. Which you don’t have.

Personally, i’d open them. People like Wanze can afford to run risks like that (i assume he is running more than one at the same time, and quite likely enough of those will pay off that he will end up ahead anyway), but i can’t. Whether you can, only you can decide.

I cant speculate Astral, I don’t play the TP im just a natural pack rat hoping to get some decent drops to supplement my miserly income. But thanks for the tip…

Open/salvage then save the mats.

Can only advice you to open them right now, since you don’t know what will exactly happen to salvaging after 23 october.

Scoundrel.2139:

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Those who know the answer to your question, can’t tell you. Those who try to tell you, don’t know. It’s all speculation.

I’ve stored several types of containers in the past, in anticipation of a massive game upheaval. I’ve “guessed” correctly one out of four times. (That sounds bad, until you remember that if I guess correctly this time, it would be 2/5, which is as close to 50-50 as I could get with only five tries.)

tl;dr flip a coin: if you’re right, great; if you’re wrong, you can blame an inanimate object for your losses.

Actually, 3/5 is as close to 50-50 as 2/5.

What do i win?

Actually, you don’t win. :P
as I could get with only five tries as Was Na has tried four times with only one more try remaining, with the one success, 2/5 is as close as he can get, with the one extra

I do win. Because he then would have said the last or the 5th try, not with 5 tries

Let’s make up an oversimplified example. Suppose that now when you open a champ bag you have a 90% chance of getting item A and a 10% chance of getting item B. Because of this, item A sells for 10 silver and Item B sells for 100 silver (1 gold).

Now, imagine that HoT comes out and they exactly reverse these two things. Now B drops 90% of the time and A drops 10% of the time. It takes a little while, but the prices reverse and B sells for 10 silver and A sells for a gold piece. Actually, what will happen initially is that the price of B will drop fast and the price of A will come up slowly because some people have been hording A (because A was easy to get before HoT).

So, if you open now, you’ll be doing well when HoT comes out and if you wait for the prices to flip. If you wait until HoT comes out to open your bags, by the time you realize what the new drop rates are, odds are the opportunity for profit has diminished.

ON THE OTHER HAND . . . . If a new item never before seen in the game drops from the new bags – we’ll call it C – and maybe it’s a very rare and very valuable drop used to craft precursors, then you’ll wish you kept those bags unopened. Everyone will desperately be farming bags, bags that you already have . . . or maybe you don’t.

I’ve been saving them up, but on the other hand I don’t have that many and usually you just get junk anyway from champ bags. With as few as I’ve got I’m willing to take the risk. They aren’t that great anyway.

rhapsody.3615:

Rococo.8347:

I didn’t know about this nerf – I doubt many people do and now ive read it as someone who is sitting on a lot of champ bags and quietly levelling a character to level 53 I feel really hacked off..

‘Despite keeping a heavy sink of materials in the new endgame weapon journeys, the changes were nowhere close to balancing the current numbers . To help get us closer to where we want to be, we’ll simultaneously roll out changes to the salvaging of some materials’

Have I actually got this right? the well known pretty rubbish loot drops in this game are actually going to be nerfed? as if 2 blues and green wasn’t bad enough they are now going to salvage into less sellable mats because thewy think we need more scarcity?

Why arnt people seeing the potential here that drops are going to be even worse? why arnt people getting annoyed? have I missed something here?!

Maybe you missed the rest of the blog post? “Some of these changes will reduce output to help us maintain scarcity, and some will rebalance heavily input materials with more rare materials to help even out some of the variation of scarcity we currently have.” Less gossamer and thick leather sections, more wool and linen? Who knows?

It’s likely we will get less mithril ore, elder wood logs and thick leather sections. Maybe less (minor) runes as well. I assume we will get more cloth. It would make sense if we could get access more easily to lower tier cloths such as wool and linen. Although I’m not sure if they would just give those to us by salvaging level 80 greens. Last but not least, I’m hoping they will add certain parts of the precursor crafting to the champion bags as well. Which is probably why I’m going to save the champion bags.

I’ll look back at this thread when the expansion launches. Then everyone can either laugh at me or envy me.

Wanze.8410:

Scoundrel.2139:

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Those who know the answer to your question, can’t tell you. Those who try to tell you, don’t know. It’s all speculation.

I’ve stored several types of containers in the past, in anticipation of a massive game upheaval. I’ve “guessed” correctly one out of four times. (That sounds bad, until you remember that if I guess correctly this time, it would be 2/5, which is as close to 50-50 as I could get with only five tries.)

tl;dr flip a coin: if you’re right, great; if you’re wrong, you can blame an inanimate object for your losses.

Actually, 3/5 is as close to 50-50 as 2/5.

What do i win?

Actually, you don’t win. :P
as I could get with only five tries as Was Na has tried four times with only one more try remaining, with the one success, 2/5 is as close as he can get, with the one extra

I do win. Because he then would have said the last or the 5th try, not with 5 tries

It’s a simple tally.

“Only 5 tries”. He has used 4. He has one left, bearing in mind he said “in only” and “as close I can get with”. With one success and 1 try remaining, 3/5 is an impossibility.

You lose, general Kenobi! :P