Guild Wars 2

I just wanted to say, what a kittening stupid idea to add the Crimson Lion as drops in BL chests so close to the initial release.

:(

It doesn’t really matter, as the chances of getting one of the unique dye’s is very very low from that.

Guessing you invested heavily in Imperial Gold/Red dye on the TP?

I invested enough gold to make me feel kittened enough to start this thread.

To heartless: prices are now well bellow the limit to turn a profit, if you had bought them when they were in the gem store. So yeah, it matters.

Yeah, heaven forbid that people who speculate should run any risks.

Risks, sure. Having random decisions from the Big Brother change the balance of things, sry, feels unjustified.

Well the knee jerk reaction to the patch notes which looks to have caused a number of players to dump their stock hoping to catch the falling knife. Might be a good time to buy simply because we don’t know what the long term impact of getting them in BLTC is. True, any “regular” supply is worse than a DeBeers situation of dripping them onto the market from hoarded stock but when has ANet never return a means to obtain specialty dyes or tradeable minis?

Don’t use them to try and turn a profit then? ANet rotates the dyes in and out the BLC, they have for quite awhile now. The put the last set in pretty close to the release of the last set of the others too.

I’m glad for the Shadow dyes, I hadn’t finished collecting them myself as I focused on getting two Shadow Abyss ones for my accounts.

agrante.2810:

Risks, sure. Having random decisions from the Big Brother change the balance of things, sry, feels unjustified.

Unjustified? Because , you know, we’ve never seen all the other special dye packs rotate in and out of the Black Lion Chests. Oh no, this is just unprecedented.

agrante.2810:

Risks, sure. Having random decisions from the Big Brother change the balance of things, sry, feels unjustified.

I’m sorry, but this is the very NATURE of speculation….

You are trying to guess what MIGHT become more valuable over time, based upon it only being available for a short period.

Knowing as we all do that they have put the special dye kits into the BLC, this is not an area that would be a great area to speculate in.

As for it being a random decision….. again, they’ve done it for EVERY SINGLE OTHER dye pack.. why did you think this one would be any different.

I’m not trying to be mean here – I speculate on a lot of stuff too, and I have both gained and lost money doing it. But it sounds like you are blaming ANet for you losing money on a speculation investment because they did what they’ve been doing all along.

Same thing happened to me with some of the glacial dye investments a while back.

And just when I bought all the electro dyes at uber high prices (like 80+ gold EACH), they were introduced to the black lion chest drops and became a hell of a lot cheaper.

You can’t win… You just have to learn to never invest in these limited time dyes (and by ‘limited time’ dyes I mean temporarily-available-in-gemstore-then-once-removed-they-are-added-in-as-drops-to-the-black-lion-chest-and-then-brought-back-again-to-the-gemstore-every-few-months-just-to-annoy-players-who-are-holding-onto-them-as-investments).

It’s not random. It’s been a fairly clear pattern that a couple times a year, ANet re-introduces kits or adds them as drops to BL Chests (or other containers). The pattern also shows that prices eventually go back up, albeit more slowly.

I’ve gotten burned a few times on holding onto colors too long, so I started paying closer attention: anytime I get so greedy I’m salvaging like Wile E Coyote looking at the Roadrunner, I know it’s either time to sell or time to hide any colors away for a few months — something is about to happen.

I am sorry that you (or anyone) got burned by this, but not so sorry that I support the criticism of ANet’s decision. I think the community/economy benefit by ANet not letting speculation dominate too many markets and by periodic disruptions to high-end niches.

tl;dr kittens [sic] happen when you speculate.

Don’t take big risks if you can’t handle big losses.

Ameepa.6793:

Don’t take big risks if you can’t handle big losses.

In fairness, the OP’s complaint is that this appeared to be a tiny risk. I would argue that the lesson is to remember that scarce resources do not always remain scarce indefinitely. In other words, don’t assume there’s little risk when you speculate based on current supply, especially when it comes to gem shop RNG drops.

OP based his speculation on supply and demand.

He didn’t base his speculation based on anet undercutting him.

This was not cool. Don’t buy gemstore stuff, anet will just undercut you.

You’re speculating. You win some, you lose some.

You lost this one.

So playing the TP got the OP burned? Did it not occur to you to unload them all as soon as the info that they would be in the BL chests hit? Would have at least limited your losses.

I don’t think that the dye supply will be largely affected by this. It’s a too rare drop, plus there’s only a chance to get a limited dye.

All that’s left to do is buy more of them whilst it’s a buyer’s market. Everyone who speculates gets burned from time to time. It’s just a fact. Most people will only tell you about their successes though. The more times you fail, the more often you will be able to spot bad decisions in purchasing.

To be honest, I think that the prices are only decreasing at the moment because many speculators are panicing and selling their dyes. I assume that the drop rates for those dye kits are the same like the rates for the last set of dye kits, and they dropped very rarely (single digit percentage, I think).

Thanathos.2063:

I don’t think that the dye supply will be largely affected by this. It’s a too rare drop, plus there’s only a chance to get a limited dye.

You are wrong. A simple history of all other special dyes and what happened when they got added to BL chests will tell you… They lose 50-80% of their value. Dropping fom 60 to 3 gold in one instance.

BL chests are spammed by people gambling for BL tickets. Everything else gets dumped onto the market in mass quantities. The true demand for these dyes isn’t anywhere near 300 gems for a 20% chance, but at least with a cartelized market buyers could get their money back if the particular dye that dropped to them wasn’t the one they wanted.

On the other hand, now may be the time to pickup the devalued dyes that aren’t in BL chests. Anymore (eg Abyss Dye, Enameled Dyes)

Thanathos.2063:

To be honest, I think that the prices are only decreasing at the moment because many speculators are panicing and selling their dyes. I assume that the drop rates for those dye kits are the same like the rates for the last set of dye kits, and they dropped very rarely (single digit percentage, I think).

There is that, but there’s likely also been an increase in the number of people keyfarming since the announcement of the upped Ticket Scrap rates. There really isn’t that much demand for dyes on a given day, so any noticeable increase in supply will drastically affect prices – even without this panicked selling by people who’d tried to speculate.

nekretaal.6485:

OP based his speculation on supply and demand.

He didn’t base his speculation based on anet undercutting him.

This was not cool. Don’t buy gemstore stuff, anet will just undercut you.

ANet undercutting him???? They simply now added it to the drop table for chests. You know the ones that cost 84-125 gems to open (unless you are still farming keys)? And it’s not like it’s a common drop from the chest. And it’s still the dye kit if I’m not mistaken so still a 19 in 25 chance of not getting one of the exclusive ones.

News hit, other speculators dumped or did you believe all that supply came from chests?

“So they’re panicking right now, they’re screaming “SELL! SELL!” to get out before the price keeps dropping. They’re panicking out there right now, I can feel it."

Criticisms aside, something that might help is to learn to diversify your portfolio. Investing heavily in a small set of things can net you huge profits if they take off, or, as you’ve just experienced, huge losses if the market crashes. If you invest instead in a variety of items, then you’re less susceptible to “random” occurrences like this one.

No worries, dropped one, got a 2s worth common dye out of it </3

They need to make this kind of moves to limit the profitability of speculation. If we could take some safety timeframe for granted, risk would be pretty much nonexistant.

Adding Shadow Dye Kits to BL chests while they’re still in the gem store, THAT’s the truly ridiculous thing.

I’m surprised to find most of the criticism here to be actually mature and pertinent. I know dyes’ rarity is a rollercoaster and I was playing with that. It’s just that I was hoping for a reasonable amount of time to pass before the first refresh in supply. For these ones it was much much sooner than I was expecting.

Similar thing for the Abyss dyes, they are being added to BL chests as they are still available to be bought directly. Was this ever done before? It’s just too random. If this is supposed to be a message saying ‘dyes are for high risk gamblers’ then I’d like to see a higher return, and dye prices are not going up high enough, fast enough imo.

(does anyone want to argue that the profit return on some dyes is worth the randomness/risk?)

Vargamonth.2047:

They need to make this kind of moves to limit the profitability of speculation. If we could take some safety timeframe for granted, risk would be pretty much nonexistant.

Adding Shadow Dye Kits to BL chests while they’re still in the gem store, THAT’s the truly ridiculous thing.

Why? Chest have always been Gem Shop samplers. Dye kit is 125 gems for one. Keys are 125 gems for one. Drop rate for one of these dye kits is under 2% per chest. ANet certainly isn’t losing anything here.

I smiled, both on the inside and outside, when I read the OP.

agrante.2810:

I’m surprised to find most of the criticism here to be actually mature and pertinent. I know dyes’ rarity is a rollercoaster and I was playing with that. It’s just that I was hoping for a reasonable amount of time to pass before the first refresh in supply. For these ones it was much much sooner than I was expecting.

Similar thing for the Abyss dyes, they are being added to BL chests as they are still available to be bought directly. Was this ever done before? It’s just too random. If this is supposed to be a message saying ‘dyes are for high risk gamblers’ then I’d like to see a higher return, and dye prices are not going up high enough, fast enough imo.

(does anyone want to argue that the profit return on some dyes is worth the randomness/risk?)

There are two relevant things here:

1. Just because something has never been done before (I don’t actually know if it hasn’t, as I haven’t really cared about the Gem Store all that much) doesn’t mean that it can’t be done. Nor does it necessarily make it a bad thing. In this case, the Black Lion Chests are just random items from the Gem Store (plus some exclusives based on the Gem Store content), and putting any given thing from the Gem Store is open. The fact that you can still buy them means nothing. The Chests are for getting random things at a “discount” (looking at it from how much it would cost in Gems to buy the same thing), and there’s absolutely no reason that they can’t put things still on the Gem Store in them.

2. Price means absolutely jack-squat. This is a nearly 100% non-regulated free market, and it’s entirely based on supply and demand (the only regulations in place are more for abusing the game, not so much the market). If Dyes suddenly cost 10000g to buy, what do you think would happen? People would suddenly go out and demolish the Gold:Gem ratio, and cause the price on the dyes to plummet in the process. Then you’re suddenly left in the exact same spot as you are now: it’s not profitable to do this. And that’s the point: not everything is designed to be a pure-profit method, and not everything has to “be worth it” in a gold gained methodology. This not being worth it from a gold perspective means absolutely nothing, as the point of it is to be worth it from a “I want this for the intrinsic item” perspective. And for people that actually like these little gambling tidbits, it’s presumably pretty worth it (see this for some lulzyness showing it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMuLD4rjUM0 ).

And the risk you take by trying to flip the dyes is entirely by you taking too long and them giving players some way to obtain it outside of the Trading Post. Obviously the price will continue to go up while overall supply cannot be increased, so your goal is to get as close to that point without going over. It’s entirely your fault when you misgauge when you think that’s going to happen. It’s not unreasonable for them to do it at any point, and it’s not unreasonable for them to do it for extended periods of time. Heck, they could literally never take it out of the Black Lion Chest, and it still wouldn’t be unreasonable. They would, however, be playing around with the risk of players wanting something new and getting annoyed with them, or their version of the exact same coin.

Similarly, randomness is better for good speculators, as it means that you can more reasonably obtain lows and sell to highs. You just need to be better at predicting what they’re going to go with to not lose everything (the higher the gamble, the better the pay-off).

Behellagh.1468:

Vargamonth.2047:

They need to make this kind of moves to limit the profitability of speculation. If we could take some safety timeframe for granted, risk would be pretty much nonexistant.

Adding Shadow Dye Kits to BL chests while they’re still in the gem store, THAT’s the truly ridiculous thing.

Why? Chest have always been Gem Shop samplers. Dye kit is 125 gems for one. Keys are 125 gems for one. Drop rate for one of these dye kits is under 2% per chest. ANet certainly isn’t losing anything here.

Most of these dyes start losing value when they’re made available through BL chests (which are not directly related to the gemstore in many, probably most, cases).
On top of the direct decrease in value, it becomes much more common for sellers to find their listings buried under several other cheaper ones and to rely on buy orders, which is another profit cut.

With this change, they achieve nothing but make one of their gem products less interesting. I can’t imagine how ANet would benefit from that.

Vargamonth.2047:

Behellagh.1468:

Vargamonth.2047:

They need to make this kind of moves to limit the profitability of speculation. If we could take some safety timeframe for granted, risk would be pretty much nonexistant.

Adding Shadow Dye Kits to BL chests while they’re still in the gem store, THAT’s the truly ridiculous thing.

Why? Chest have always been Gem Shop samplers. Dye kit is 125 gems for one. Keys are 125 gems for one. Drop rate for one of these dye kits is under 2% per chest. ANet certainly isn’t losing anything here.

Most of these dyes start losing value when they’re made available through BL chests (which are not directly related to the gemstore in many, probably most, cases).
On top of the direct decrease in value, it becomes much more common for sellers to find their listings buried under several other cheaper ones and to rely on buy orders, which is another profit cut.

With this change, they achieve nothing but make one of their gem products less interesting. I can’t imagine how ANet would benefit from that.

But ANet doesn’t care about TP value. All they care about is Gem Shop sales as keeping the Chests “fresh”.

I’m idly curious as to whether those upset by a loss in profits are taking an actual net loss or just not making as much money as they expected. The former could well be upsetting, though I don’t think that upset should be aimed at ANet. The latter, well, even smaller profits can add up, right? It seems silly to me to be upset that you made 50 gold when you expected to make 150, for example. You still made gold!

Donari.5237:

I’m idly curious as to whether those upset by a loss in profits are taking an actual net loss or just not making as much money as they expected. The former could well be upsetting, though I don’t think that upset should be aimed at ANet. The latter, well, even smaller profits can add up, right? It seems silly to me to be upset that you made 50 gold when you expected to make 150, for example. You still made gold!

Nah, this is about losses, not reduced profit. I can give you an example. The buy price (offer) for one of them was at the time I invested stable around 71g; the sell price is about the same, so it’s a 15% loss, now; 2 days ago when I started this post was 20g less. Looks like it’s recovering though; one can only hope.

I get the point of Behellagh, that these decisions are probably based on Gem sales expectations. On the other hand though, making sure people feel rewarded is a sure way to maintain a recurring player base, and that in the long run also drives a lot of Gem purchases. Maybe the number is people that enjoy the trading aspect of the game is not that large to influence the decisions on dye availability. I’m over it now, and I learned something. Let’s move on.

agrante.2810:

Donari.5237:

I’m idly curious as to whether those upset by a loss in profits are taking an actual net loss or just not making as much money as they expected. The former could well be upsetting, though I don’t think that upset should be aimed at ANet. The latter, well, even smaller profits can add up, right? It seems silly to me to be upset that you made 50 gold when you expected to make 150, for example. You still made gold!

Nah, this is about losses, not reduced profit. I can give you an example. The buy price (offer) for one of them was at the time I invested stable around 71g; the sell price is about the same, so it’s a 15% loss, now; 2 days ago when I started this post was 20g less. Looks like it’s recovering though; one can only hope.

I get the point of Behellagh, that these decisions are probably based on Gem sales expectations. On the other hand though, making sure people feel rewarded is a sure way to maintain a recurring player base, and that in the long run also drives a lot of Gem purchases. Maybe the number is people that enjoy the trading aspect of the game is not that large to influence the decisions on dye availability. I’m over it now, and I learned something. Let’s move on.

This is Beanie Babies all over again.

I’m quite sure ANet didn’t introduce these kits with the intent that players were going to buy them as investments rather than personal use. But since the dyes you get are RNG the dyes needed the ability to be sold on the TP, doubly so now that they unlock across the account. Players have taken that, along with ticket skins, minis, contracts and have tried to make it into a business. That’s what screws them in the end when they try to speculate with these items.

Again, in the case with Shadow Dyes, their inclusion in the chests don’t really affect supply in a big way since you can still buy them. And you know who’s going to win with the returning dyes like the Crimson Lion Dyes? Those who buy these off the TP now at significantly reduced prices and waiting for the panic to subside.