On the forums and on Reddit, people everywhere are talking about how many Precursors they’ve been getting on their Beta slots. Well, I decided to test out my RNG luck for myself, and dumped the following:
Genesis x 1
Combustion x 1
Random Exotic Warhorn x 1
Mystic Stone
This was my one and only attempt on my Theif and got the attached pic. It leads me to speculate that either I hit the RNG jackpot, or Anet stealth buffed the Precursor chance at the Mystic Forge. I’m thinking the latter, because there have been so many reports of Precursors in the past 24 hours.
Well, he stated he was testing out the RNG after reading about how many people spoke of the better loot from the Forge on their Beta slots, so I presumed he also did the same on his own. Also, I don’t think the Beta slot would restrict you to just a revenant..I think.
Well, he stated he was testing out the RNG after reading about how many people spoke of the better loot from the Forge on their Beta slots, so I presumed he also did the same on his own. Also, I don’t think the Beta slot would restrict you to just a revenant..I think.
Not really conformation of anything Smooth, but for funs I just did the same thing pretty much. Hopped over to LA on my Thief and went and spent 2400 dungeon tokens on swords. Enough for two rolls. First roll: Ceremonial Sword of w/e. Second roll: Zap falls into my lap. O.o
The majority of the reports are coming tor 2 reasons.
- people are exploiting the infinite exotics. For no gain mind you, but thats where the pres are coming from. And of course once a few start, many follow so they can head to the forums or reddit and start a thread about their cursed luck, or to beg Anet to allow them to keep it.
- people are lying to get on the bandwaggon. This happens a lot for the forums.
The majority of the reports are coming tor 2 reasons.
- people are exploiting the infinite exotics. For no gain mind you, but thats where the pres are coming from. And of course once a few start, many follow so they can head to the forums or reddit and start a thread about their cursed luck, or to beg Anet to allow them to keep it.
- people are lying to get on the bandwaggon. This happens a lot for the forums.
well, i don’t want to give people hope, but after i read the forum; i tried crafting at MF
with 3 weapon +mytic forge stone (not “no mane”; weapons from achivements) adn i got a Precursor, at the 2nd try.
On the forums and on Reddit, people everywhere are talking about how many Precursors they’ve been getting on their Beta slots. Well, I decided to test out my RNG luck for myself, and dumped the following:
Genesis x 1
Combustion x 1
Random Exotic Warhorn x 1
Mystic Stone
This was my one and only attempt on my Theif and got the attached pic. It leads me to speculate that either I hit the RNG jackpot, or Anet stealth buffed the Precursor chance at the Mystic Forge. I’m thinking the latter, because there have been so many reports of Precursors in the past 24 hours.
I doubt they changed it, its still the same.
The difference is that people forged way more exotics this weekend (mostly from beta gear chests) and it was a “trending topic”. Even before the weekend, there were a couple of topics in general on mystic forging pres, mostly due to the devaluation of t5 mats since the balance patch, which made forging pres cheaper.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
For me, it’s hard to grasp getting Dawn from 3 random Exotics and a Mystic Stone. Several months ago, I was dumping random Exotic weapons and ended up with Venom, but that was after a bunch of tries. I’m thinking that maybe it was due to me using expensive Exotics? Genesis is quite pricey… Or it could be that I used Exotics with skins I didn’t discover?
I don’t have enough spare Exotic weapons to test this out, so I was hoping for others with valid claims from people not using their Beta slots (i.e. pix).
lots of people try (because their beta slot gives them so many free exotics)
most people fail, as expected – because this is not a remarkable result, few are compelled to post about it
a few people succeed ( perhaps more, perhaps less than the actual absolute chance – that’s just RNG at work ) – a disproportionate number of these report their success to other people
result: anyone reading somewhere where such reports are posted sees what seems to be an unusually high success rate.
I made a Rev, didn’t like it and so before deleting I dumped everything into the Toilet. Second dump and I got The Legend.
I didn’t make lots of Rev’s, I didn’t dump stuff into the Toilet in the hope of a pre, I did it as the stuff was free and it felt fun to throw them in without concern. I know I can’t keep the pre and have no complaints, it just felt good to actually see it appear and have it for a few days after three years of hoping for one.
“Judge a person’s character by how they behave when given anonymity.”
Welcome to the Internet, exposing characters since the early 80’s.
For me, it’s hard to grasp getting Dawn from 3 random Exotics and a Mystic Stone. Several months ago, I was dumping random Exotic weapons and ended up with Venom, but that was after a bunch of tries. I’m thinking that maybe it was due to me using expensive Exotics? Genesis is quite pricey… Or it could be that I used Exotics with skins I didn’t discover?
I don’t have enough spare Exotic weapons to test this out, so I was hoping for others with valid claims from people not using their Beta slots (i.e. pix).
The chance to get a pre from exotics is the same at every try (about 0.7% according to research). It doesnt matter if:
you use a mystic stone with 3 exotics
you use named exotics or not
you use level 75-79 exotics or lvl 80
you unlock a skin through the forge attempt
you forge in the morning or during prime time
you use a low level character or level 80
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
And there is that poor soul somewhere out there who happened to dump plenty of exotics into the forge and got nothing.
Seriously, one person getting lucky doesn’t mean everyone else will too.
That’d be me.
After all the talk about getting precursors (and deciding I was done with my revenant) I made 2 new ones, threw everything they had in the forge and everything that came out back in and was left with a Dire Orrian Longsword of Rage.
Along the way I did get some named exotics, including getting trolled by Khrysaor the Golden Sword and Imryldyeen.
(On a related note if someone has called their revenant ‘Stupid Forge Test’ it’s a safe bet they’re aware they can’t keep anything and don’t need whispers telling them they’re being stupid.)
Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).
For me, it’s hard to grasp getting Dawn from 3 random Exotics and a Mystic Stone. Several months ago, I was dumping random Exotic weapons and ended up with Venom, but that was after a bunch of tries. I’m thinking that maybe it was due to me using expensive Exotics? Genesis is quite pricey… Or it could be that I used Exotics with skins I didn’t discover?
I don’t have enough spare Exotic weapons to test this out, so I was hoping for others with valid claims from people not using their Beta slots (i.e. pix).
You’ve been around long enough to know you just got lucky. It has nothing to do with any new skin voodoo, expensive exotics, etc. I threw all of my Exotic Hunter collection weapons into the forge, and mostly ended up with level 78 basic skins. Last night, I forged four named exotic level 80 scepters for the mystic forge daily, and no precursor. I did get something with a superior sigil of force, so that was nice.
For me, it’s hard to grasp getting Dawn from 3 random Exotics and a Mystic Stone. Several months ago, I was dumping random Exotic weapons and ended up with Venom, but that was after a bunch of tries. I’m thinking that maybe it was due to me using expensive Exotics? Genesis is quite pricey… Or it could be that I used Exotics with skins I didn’t discover?
I don’t have enough spare Exotic weapons to test this out, so I was hoping for others with valid claims from people not using their Beta slots (i.e. pix).
You’ve been around long enough to know you just got lucky. It has nothing to do with any new skin voodoo, expensive exotics, etc. I threw all of my Exotic Hunter collection weapons into the forge, and mostly ended up with level 78 basic skins. Last night, I forged four named exotic level 80 scepters for the mystic forge daily, and no precursor. I did get something with a superior sigil of force, so that was nice.
I read this thread after trying one round of exotics in the forge, then decided to give it one last go (I had some dungeon tokens left over). I wound up getting Storm.
I suppose I just got lucky too.
Those armadillos would be a lot cooler if they looked more like real armadillos. mmm armadillos
-BnooMaGoo.5690
For me, it’s hard to grasp getting Dawn from 3 random Exotics and a Mystic Stone. Several months ago, I was dumping random Exotic weapons and ended up with Venom, but that was after a bunch of tries. I’m thinking that maybe it was due to me using expensive Exotics? Genesis is quite pricey… Or it could be that I used Exotics with skins I didn’t discover?
I don’t have enough spare Exotic weapons to test this out, so I was hoping for others with valid claims from people not using their Beta slots (i.e. pix).
You’ve been around long enough to know you just got lucky. It has nothing to do with any new skin voodoo, expensive exotics, etc. I threw all of my Exotic Hunter collection weapons into the forge, and mostly ended up with level 78 basic skins. Last night, I forged four named exotic level 80 scepters for the mystic forge daily, and no precursor. I did get something with a superior sigil of force, so that was nice.
I read this thread after trying one round of exotics in the forge, then decided to give it one last go (I had some dungeon tokens left over). I wound up getting Storm.
I suppose I just got lucky too.
Yes. And there are hundreds, probably thousands of attempts that did not get a precursor this week.
I understand what Wanze is saying, but if other player’s claims are true, then the bar skews from lucky RNG drop to potentially changed forge mechanics.
If one person gets lucky, they’re one of the outliners on the probability scale. But if many get lucky, chances are less that they all got lucky without the help of some unknown deviation.
I attached a graph I found that should help illustrate the chance.
I understand what Wanze is saying, but if other player’s claims are true, then the bar skews from lucky RNG drop to potentially changed forge mechanics.
If one person gets lucky, they’re one of the outliners on the probability scale. But if many get lucky, chances are less that they all got lucky without the help of some unknown deviation.
I attached a graph I found that should help illustrate the chance.
Thats true but you fail to provide substancial evidence that more people like usual got lucky (map chat, forums and personally crafting 1 pre cursor with a lucky roll isnt enough).
While it might be true that more precursors per day were forged since the last patch (causing all that chatter about pre forging in map chat, forums, reddit etc) and through beta weekend its much more likely that the cause of it was an unusual high amount of exotics being thrown into the forge per day (from beta gear boxes) and not a ninja buffed forge rate or forge related bug.
This weekend people who usually dont have the gold to gamble away with exotic weapons had the opportunity to test out the precursor droprate with them without having to pay the price, if they have an unlucky streak and many took advantage of it, at least going for it until they had the first pre.
I didnt pre order yet, so i didnt participate but if i would, i would probably spend my whole game time during that weekend forging exotics, just for personal research.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Just for fun, just now, I spent about 140 gold on named exotics. I had 21 mystic forge stones, so I forged 21 times using one stone each time. I also forged 4 more times with just 4 exotics. 0 precursors. So there are 25 attempts, 26 if you count the forge I did esterday.
Months ago, 4 of my friends and a few guildmates got precursors all within a few days of each other. I got Rage one evening, then again the next morning. Haven’t gotten a precursor since. This is just how it works.
If you’re going to present a theory like this, you need a large sample size. Hearsay isn’t enough.
I understand what Wanze is saying, but if other player’s claims are true, then the bar skews from lucky RNG drop to potentially changed forge mechanics.
If one person gets lucky, they’re one of the outliners on the probability scale. But if many get lucky, chances are less that they all got lucky without the help of some unknown deviation.
I attached a graph I found that should help illustrate the chance.
Thats true but you fail to provide substancial evidence that more people like usual got lucky (map chat, forums and personally crafting 1 pre cursor with a lucky roll isnt enough).
While it might be true that more precursors per day were forged since the last patch (causing all that chatter about pre forging in map chat, forums, reddit etc) and through beta weekend its much more likely that the cause of it was an unusual high amount of exotics being thrown into the forge per day (from beta gear boxes) and not a ninja buffed forge rate or forge related bug.
This weekend people who usually dont have the gold to gamble away with exotic weapons had the opportunity to test out the precursor droprate with them without having to pay the price, if they have an unlucky streak and many took advantage of it, at least going for it until they had the first pre.
I didnt pre order yet, so i didnt participate but if i would, i would probably spend my whole game time during that weekend forging exotics, just for personal research.
The rumors covered both Beta slot forging, and regular slot forging. Mine was done on my main. I’ve done 3 more Exotic tries since, and so far nothing. But with my small sample size of 4, I’m at a 25% success rate. I’m guestimating Mea to be a 3.7% with getting Zap. Tman, Seyiwaji and Quarktastic are at 50%. This is on the assumption that they’re all telling the truth. Squishy and rhapsody are at 0%, which would have been the norm.
So yes, more attempts = more successes. But take away the ones who tested it on the Beta slot, and you still have a pretty sizable number of people getting Precursors on regular character slots.
The rumors covered both Beta slot forging, and regular slot forging. Mine was done on my main. I’ve done 3 more Exotic tries since, and so far nothing. But with my small sample size of 4, I’m at a 25% success rate. I’m guestimating Mea to be a 3.7% with getting Zap. Tman, Seyiwaji and Quarktastic are at 50%. This is on the assumption that they’re all telling the truth. Squishy and rhapsody are at 0%, which would have been the norm.
So yes, more attempts = more successes. But take away the ones who tested it on the Beta slot, and you still have a pretty sizable number of people getting Precursors on regular character slots.
If you’re going to present a theory like this, you need a large sample size. Hearsay isn’t enough.
Yeah, I’m looking to craft more Exotic Giver GS and try.
Those people that got a pre from exotics on their normal characters, would have also gotten one, if the beta wasnt going on but in that case, they probably wouldnt mention it on the forums or reddit.
So they wouldnt add to the rumors either.
Just because people are more vocal atm about their precursor drops doesnt mean that more pres are forged in relation to exotics thrown in.
And I wouldnt suggest to craft givers gs either, unless you want to use them to level your weaponsmith.
Right now it costs 5.5g to craft one but you could buy at least a dozen different gs around the 4g mark directly, 3g on buy order.
If that is your way to go about forging, you would probably make a loss in the long run because you pay 66% more than me per average forge attempt with exotics and 150% more if i use self crafted rares.
Thank you for your gold.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
For me, it’s hard to grasp getting Dawn from 3 random Exotics and a Mystic Stone. Several months ago, I was dumping random Exotic weapons and ended up with Venom, but that was after a bunch of tries. I’m thinking that maybe it was due to me using expensive Exotics? Genesis is quite pricey… Or it could be that I used Exotics with skins I didn’t discover?
I don’t have enough spare Exotic weapons to test this out, so I was hoping for others with valid claims from people not using their Beta slots (i.e. pix).
The chance to get a pre from exotics is the same at every try (about 0.7% according to research). It doesnt matter if:
you use a mystic stone with 3 exotics
you use named exotics or not
you use level 75-79 exotics or lvl 80
you unlock a skin through the forge attempt
you forge in the morning or during prime time
you use a low level character or level 80
You forgot,
*forge facing east at sunrise(ingame)
Be careful what you wish for, Anet might just give it to you “HoT”
“…let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we shall die;.”
And I wouldnt suggest to craft givers gs either, unless you want to use them to level your weaponsmith.
Right now it costs 5.5g to craft one but you could buy at least a dozen different gs around the 4g mark directly, 3g on buy order.
If that is your way to go about forging, you would probably make a loss in the long run because you pay 66% more than me per average forge attempt with exotics and 150% more if i use self crafted rares.
Thank you for your gold.
Thanks for the heads up. I’ve been using Givers because I have such a massive stock of Orichalcum, Ancient Wood, Ectos, and Snowflakes. I should be more mindful of their values, esp. with the increase of Ecto prices.
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