Guild Wars 2

Ironically, the randomness of the system is significantly contributes to these posts continually popping up.

So are there any plans on fixing this because you can’t tell us that system is fair at all its like saying that bashing a player in the head with bat is as fair as not bashing the player in the head with blindfold.Maybe something of the kind of pity drops?

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

No offense, but I will never believe that for a second. Ive played a lot for over 3 years in every gamemode and I have never once gotten a single precursor drop from any source. At the same time I have known people who have been able to forge dozens literally dozens some over 100 precursors, one person got a precursor their first week. Meanwhile I am still at 0 because of RNG in over 3 years, so you will excuse me for not believing you.

X T D.6458:

No offense, but I will never believe that for a second. Ive played a lot for over 3 years in every gamemode and I have never once gotten a single precursor drop from any source. At the same time I have known people who have been able to forge dozens literally dozens some over 100 precursors, one person got a precursor their first week. Meanwhile I am still at 0 because of RNG in over 3 years, so you will excuse me for not believing you.

Go to the TP. Buy 10000 level 75+ exotic weapons. Throw them all into MF. You will get your precursors.

No offense, but I will never believe that for a second. Ive played a lot for over 3 years in every gamemode and I have never once gotten a single precursor drop from any source. At the same time I have known people who have been able to forge dozens literally dozens some over 100 precursors, one person got a precursor their first week. Meanwhile I am still at 0 because of RNG in over 3 years, so you will excuse me for not believing you.[/quote]

…they were able to forge dozens, some OVER 100 precursors.
Well, you say you play a lot. Do you throw stuff into the mystic forge non stop, like people that got dozens, HUNDREDS of precursors, are you trolling, HUNDREDS?! You do not get hundreds of prec by, as you said, playing every game mode, you get that by stuffing down rares and exos worth MINES FULL OF GOLD PIECES down the mystic forge. Seriously.
And a friend of you got a prec in their first week of playing, well boo hoo, that is something that happens.
Did you also say, playing Ludo/Aggrevation as kid, that you did not beliefe that one of your siblings got a six before you did? Did you then also say “No, I don’t believe we have had the same chance, I have heard of people rolling hundreds of sixes with their dice before I did, this can’t be fair!”
Honestly. I just comes down to luck, and not personal luck, just statistical “Maybe you get it, maybe you don’t” luck. Luck doesn’t mean, “Everyone get’s one prec after 1k hours, then the next one after 2k hours” etc. etc, no, luck in this case is “Oh, this mob/event/chest/whatever dropped something for you, well, maybe it will be a prec, unlikely but possible, or maybe it will be some junk, which is very likely, but not the only thing possible, let’s run our super complicated algorithm to sort this out.”

Ayrilana.1396:

Blood Red Arachnid.2493:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Blood Red Arachnid.2493:

Right now I have yet to hear a disproof of unlucky people in general, let alone game accounts.

The burden is on those seeking to change the status quo to prove that there is a problem that needs to be addressed. There’s been no evidence shown in this thread (or any other) that demonstrates that the results are anything other than predictable.

At any given moment, some people have had better drops and some have had worse. Everyone agrees that happens.

The question raised in this thread is whether that same ‘luckiness’ applies to the same accounts tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow…and there’s zero evidence for that.

tl;dr past performance cannot be used to predict future earnings.

The thing is, that conclusion is just pressing the prior assumption that these drops are all independent of each other. If they aren’t, well…

BTW I don’t think there are lucky or unlucky accounts. I just recognize that, without the actual code displayed for determining luck and drops, that there’s no evidence to discern between a fair system that has a random awards resembling a bell curve, or a system that is randomly unfair, and this distribution of unfairness itself resembles a bell curve.

Let’s assume that Anet released the actual code. Do you think most of the players would even understand it? They’d be relying on the what others say about it which is no different that relying on what Anet says about it.

It’s quite a bit different, really. Peer review and third party verification are useful things, and they speak volumes more than whatever company officially sanctioned post will say.

Nash.2681:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Granted and accepted. But this doesn’t explain why you guys still stick to this kitten concept. I remember this very thread where we were called to discuss about rng as a concept, still everything is tied to RNG. Even more so when it’s possible to get some of the most valuable items (precursors) for the least challenging content (killing trash mobs in open world).
An no, I do not consider precursor crafting as a relief here. A mindless grindfest that simply doubles the cost for a legendary is no compensation for those cursed by rngsus.

Dude, rng is everywhere in all MMOs. In fact, grind and MMOs almost always go together hand in hand. Why don’t you propose an alternative system of reward. How about all character have a job in game so we can accumulate credit to pay for our items. Meanwhile, why don’t you also propose an alternative system for the economy so I don’t have to be stuck in a job

around 3700 hours of gameplay > 0 precursor…

if i play 3 hours a day EVERY day of the year that would be 3,5 years of gameplay EVERYDAY! > 0 precursor

So yeah ok, i dont mind it but saying we all have the exact same chance on RNG?
right..

nicknamenick.2437:

around 3700 hours of gameplay > 0 precursor…

if i play 3 hours a day EVERY day of the year that would be 3,5 years of gameplay EVERYDAY! > 0 precursor

So yeah ok, i dont mind it but saying we all have the exact same chance on RNG?
right..

…Do you people even understand the concept of chance? Of “random” things? Honestly. It gets really really tiring.

Nonoka.7028:

nicknamenick.2437:

around 3700 hours of gameplay > 0 precursor…

if i play 3 hours a day EVERY day of the year that would be 3,5 years of gameplay EVERYDAY! > 0 precursor

So yeah ok, i dont mind it but saying we all have the exact same chance on RNG?
right..

…Do you people even understand the concept of chance? Of “random” things? Honestly. It gets really really tiring.

“Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.”

I have 14 chars.

And out of the 14, only my Ranger have the “best” luck of all. She has netted me 3 pre-cursors so far.
Spark, Venom and The Hunter (from the Mystic Toilet and a dungeon chest)

My Ele (first char for my account) is probably the second best “luck” char. She has netted me multiples Exotics and rares, even from a lowly enemy such as a crab or deer.

My second ele gives me kittens drops.

My only Necromancer/Reaper will drop occasional Exotics. Maybe once every 100 world boss or meta boss kills. (Just a rough estimate, I don’t keep accurate counts, just be warn)

My first Mesmer gives me kitten drops but not as worst as my second Mesmer.

My Chronomancer is the worst with only bonus box rares with the occasional rares from bosses.

The others, well, lets just say I rarely use them due to them giving me whites, blue and greens most of the time.

So, you tell me if there isn’t a luck factor in a character…..

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Where does that leave Magic Find?

off the intel website, some further reading https://software.intel.com/en-us/articles/intel-digital-random-number-generator-drng-software-implementation-guide

An RNG is a utility or device of some type that produces a sequence of numbers on an interval [min, max] such that values appear unpredictable. Stated a little more technically, we are looking for the following characteristics:

Each new value must be statistically independent of the previous value. That is, given a generated sequence of values, a particular value is not more likely to follow after it as the next value in the RNG’s random sequence.
The overall distribution of numbers chosen from the interval is uniformly distributed. In other words, all numbers are equally likely and none are more “popular” or appear more frequently within the RNG’s output than others.
The sequence is unpredictable. An attacker cannot guess some or all of the values in a generated sequence. Predictability may take the form of forward prediction (future values) and backtracking (past values).

Since computing systems are by nature deterministic, producing quality random numbers that have these properties (statistical independence, uniform distribution, and unpredictability) is much more difficult than it might seem. Sampling the seconds value from the system clock, a common approach, may seem random enough, but process scheduling and other system effects may result in some values occurring far more frequently than others. External entropy sources like the time between a user’s keystrokes or mouse movements may likewise, upon further analysis, show that values do not distribute evenly across the space of all possible values; some values are more likely to occur than others, and certain values almost never occur in practice.

Beyond these requirements, some other desirable RNG properties include:

The RNG is fast in returning a value (i.e., low response time) and can service a large number of requests within a short time interval (i.e., highly scalable).
The RNG is secure against attackers who might observe or change its underlying state in order to predict or influence its output or otherwise interfere with its operation.

nicknamenick.2437:

Nonoka.7028:

nicknamenick.2437:

around 3700 hours of gameplay > 0 precursor…

if i play 3 hours a day EVERY day of the year that would be 3,5 years of gameplay EVERYDAY! > 0 precursor

So yeah ok, i dont mind it but saying we all have the exact same chance on RNG?
right..

…Do you people even understand the concept of chance? Of “random” things? Honestly. It gets really really tiring.

“Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.”

But still, the thing is there really is NO safe way to to compare just playtime. The content you participate in makes a real big difference. Like I said before, spending 3k hours, just whipping out your credit card every other day, buying hundreds and thousands of exos after the gem to gold exchange, you WILL get a lot more precursors and even other rare items than any normal player doing just WvW or plain old “I complete been there, done that on /15 chars”, or, and those people also exist, those who roleplay in the capital cities like 70% of their time in the game. If I spend 100 hours chestfarming in the silverwaster, I will get loads more stuff from there than going for a 100 hours EotM train – because played time is no factor for things. In a chestfarm, I get like what, 20-30 guaranteed champ bags + every now and then stuff like carapace boot chests, obsi shards, and sometimes an essence of time from all the sand I get.
When I walk through the EotM with a zerg, I can get nowhere near this many champ bags from there as I can with a CF. And now, In the same, just let me make up some numbers here, you got say 1000k bags from chestfarming, and maybe 300 bags from eotm. which isn’t very little, let’s be honest, but 1000k times a small chance of getting a prec is a lot better than 300 times a small of chance of getting a prec.
And it is alright for you to questions things as people SEEMINGLY have better luck than you, but then you still have no idea, not the lightest idea, of how and how effective they spend their time in the game. And hell, if you have a guildie that keeps pinging his new prec from the MF, don’t automatically beliefe them. Nothing’s easier than either whipping out a credit card to get it, or to just copy the chat code of the item in question from the wiki.

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

I don’t for once believe that. The fact that my Ranger is the only one able to drop Pre-cursors, while my first char an Ele which I played for the majority of the hours I spend in GW2 could only get as best Exotics even during Mystic Toilet dropping.

When I got The Hunter, you know how many rares I drop into the Mystic Toilet?
A total of 4.
Yes, 4.

As for the Spark, its the same story. 4 total.

And on both occasions, it was because I wanted to get rid of the rares that is hogging up my bags I didn’t expect it.

As for the Venom, I couldn’t remember where i got it, but I think it was during a dungeon run with my Ranger….

While my Ele which is my main char most of the time with hundreds and hundreds of World Boss kills and Dungeon runs, meta runs, best she has got is only Exotics. Even fractals runs (lets not count the bonus chest where you get Asc rings, because I got about 3 of those, while the rest are bought by laurels) and even on purpose dropping rares into the Mystic Toilet. My ele is 0 precursors after 1439 hours+. Remember, with the most World Boss Kills and Champ kills and dungeon runs, Fractal runs.

While my Ranger is 203hours+ and she is 3 pre-cursors and counting. I don’t like using my Ranger because it’s boring and with a pet, I am always just standing there pew pewing.

My Guardian and Necro are occasional Exotic drops. Like 1 or 2 after a long long time.

My Mesmers 2 of them hardly get me anything worth while.

My warriors? I don’t remember getting anything better than rares, And those are from the bonus chest, not the boss chest.

As for the rest of my characters, it’s white, blue and greens…….

SirDrygan.1823:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

I don’t for once believe that. The fact that my Ranger is the only one able to drop Pre-cursors, while my first char an Ele which I played for the majority of the hours I spend in GW2 could only get as best Exotics even during Mystic Toilet dropping.

When I got The Hunter, you know how many rares I drop into the Mystic Toilet?
A total of 4.
Yes, 4.

As for the Spark, its the same story. 4 total.

And on both occasions, it was because I wanted to get rid of the rares that is hogging up my bags I didn’t expect it.

As for the Venom, I couldn’t remember where i got it, but I think it was during a dungeon run with my Ranger….

While my Ele which is my main char most of the time with hundreds and hundreds of World Boss kills and Dungeon runs, meta runs, best she has got is only Exotics. Even fractals runs (lets not count the bonus chest where you get Asc rings, because I got about 3 of those, while the rest are bought by laurels) and even on purpose dropping rares into the Mystic Toilet. My ele is 0 precursors after 1439 hours+. Remember, with the most World Boss Kills and Champ kills and dungeon runs, Fractal runs.

While my Ranger is 203hours+ and she is 3 pre-cursors and counting. I don’t like using my Ranger because it’s boring and with a pet, I am always just standing there pew pewing.

My Guardian and Necro are occasional Exotic drops. Like 1 or 2 after a long long time.

My Mesmers 2 of them hardly get me anything worth while.

My warriors? I don’t remember getting anything better than rares, And those are from the bonus chest, not the boss chest.

As for the rest of my characters, it’s white, blue and greens…….

do you realize that all your chars are on 1 Account?

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

SirDrygan.1823:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

I don’t for once believe that. The fact that my Ranger is the only one able to drop Pre-cursors, while my first char an Ele which I played for the majority of the hours I spend in GW2 could only get as best Exotics even during Mystic Toilet dropping.

When I got The Hunter, you know how many rares I drop into the Mystic Toilet?
A total of 4.
Yes, 4.

As for the Spark, its the same story. 4 total.

And on both occasions, it was because I wanted to get rid of the rares that is hogging up my bags I didn’t expect it.

As for the Venom, I couldn’t remember where i got it, but I think it was during a dungeon run with my Ranger….

While my Ele which is my main char most of the time with hundreds and hundreds of World Boss kills and Dungeon runs, meta runs, best she has got is only Exotics. Even fractals runs (lets not count the bonus chest where you get Asc rings, because I got about 3 of those, while the rest are bought by laurels) and even on purpose dropping rares into the Mystic Toilet. My ele is 0 precursors after 1439 hours+. Remember, with the most World Boss Kills and Champ kills and dungeon runs, Fractal runs.

While my Ranger is 203hours+ and she is 3 pre-cursors and counting. I don’t like using my Ranger because it’s boring and with a pet, I am always just standing there pew pewing.

My Guardian and Necro are occasional Exotic drops. Like 1 or 2 after a long long time.

My Mesmers 2 of them hardly get me anything worth while.

My warriors? I don’t remember getting anything better than rares, And those are from the bonus chest, not the boss chest.

As for the rest of my characters, it’s white, blue and greens…….

It is hard to get a precursor with 3 or 5 rares

Btw do you want to tell us that you threw a total of 8 rares into MF and you got 2 precursors? You have to include ALL of your attempts if you want to prove something.

Roxanne.6140:

Nash.2681:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Granted and accepted. But this doesn’t explain why you guys still stick to this kitten concept. I remember this very thread where we were called to discuss about rng as a concept, still everything is tied to RNG. Even more so when it’s possible to get some of the most valuable items (precursors) for the least challenging content (killing trash mobs in open world).
An no, I do not consider precursor crafting as a relief here. A mindless grindfest that simply doubles the cost for a legendary is no compensation for those cursed by rngsus.

Dude, rng is everywhere in all MMOs. In fact, grind and MMOs almost always go together hand in hand. Why don’t you propose an alternative system of reward. How about all character have a job in game so we can accumulate credit to pay for our items. Meanwhile, why don’t you also propose an alternative system for the economy so I don’t have to be stuck in a job

Did I just hit a nerve or something?
There have been dozens or hundreds suggestions in the thread I mentioned, no need to repeat them over and over again. I would link it to you if the search engine of this forum would work properly.
RNG to a certain extend is fine and spices things up, but the way it’s implented in GW2 is just poor and lazy design. Same goes for grind, it’s ok and almost neccesary to a certain extend to keep people on board and playing, as long as it’s wrapped in interessting and somewhat challenging content.

Nash.2681:

Roxanne.6140:

Nash.2681:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Granted and accepted. But this doesn’t explain why you guys still stick to this kitten concept. I remember this very thread where we were called to discuss about rng as a concept, still everything is tied to RNG. Even more so when it’s possible to get some of the most valuable items (precursors) for the least challenging content (killing trash mobs in open world).
An no, I do not consider precursor crafting as a relief here. A mindless grindfest that simply doubles the cost for a legendary is no compensation for those cursed by rngsus.

Dude, rng is everywhere in all MMOs. In fact, grind and MMOs almost always go together hand in hand. Why don’t you propose an alternative system of reward. How about all character have a job in game so we can accumulate credit to pay for our items. Meanwhile, why don’t you also propose an alternative system for the economy so I don’t have to be stuck in a job

Did I just hit a nerve or something?
There have been dozens or hundreds suggestions in the thread I mentioned, no need to repeat them over and over again. I would link it to you if the search engine of this forum would work properly.
RNG to a certain extend is fine and spices things up, but the way it’s implented in GW2 is just poor and lazy design. Same goes for grind, it’s ok and almost neccesary to a certain extend to keep people on board and playing, as long as it’s wrapped in interessting and somewhat challenging content.

this thread?
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/

So reading through this, I know that RNG is applied to the Account – but does that mean that the Bell Curve/outlier/etc are all tied to that one account – so if it’s an outlier account – all characters would have the same favourable luck?

Or is it the Character that become the outlier?

Sorry for newbi question – as it seems I have one character that is luckier than the others, but that might just be me being superstitious

nottsgman.8206:

Nash.2681:

Roxanne.6140:

Nash.2681:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Granted and accepted. But this doesn’t explain why you guys still stick to this kitten concept. I remember this very thread where we were called to discuss about rng as a concept, still everything is tied to RNG. Even more so when it’s possible to get some of the most valuable items (precursors) for the least challenging content (killing trash mobs in open world).
An no, I do not consider precursor crafting as a relief here. A mindless grindfest that simply doubles the cost for a legendary is no compensation for those cursed by rngsus.

Dude, rng is everywhere in all MMOs. In fact, grind and MMOs almost always go together hand in hand. Why don’t you propose an alternative system of reward. How about all character have a job in game so we can accumulate credit to pay for our items. Meanwhile, why don’t you also propose an alternative system for the economy so I don’t have to be stuck in a job

Did I just hit a nerve or something?
There have been dozens or hundreds suggestions in the thread I mentioned, no need to repeat them over and over again. I would link it to you if the search engine of this forum would work properly.
RNG to a certain extend is fine and spices things up, but the way it’s implented in GW2 is just poor and lazy design. Same goes for grind, it’s ok and almost neccesary to a certain extend to keep people on board and playing, as long as it’s wrapped in interessting and somewhat challenging content.

this thread?
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/

Exactly, 22 pages full of discussion and suggestions. +1

I wonder how the RNG algorithm works. Humans have yet to make a true random number generation system. I presume it’s only fair state would simply include the errors proposed, just a selector between 1-X, where ultimately the selection isn’t truly independent (because that’s why the algorithm isn’t truly random since that doesn’t actually exist yet), but also beyond player and developer interference.

This gives me a lot to think about when designing my own stuff.

Short answer to the OP: yes. Some accounts are luckier than others. This is simply a function of the pseudo RNG used by the game- you will always get characters and accounts that seem ‘luckier’ than others- but in reality they are just coming up near the edges of the probability curve.

Of more interest is the extra chance of crafting a precursor if you don’t log in to the game on certain toons for a while- when you return to the game, they seem to have a better chance of getting ‘lucky’ than another account/toon that you use everyday. But again, this can simply be the outlier on the curve.

Personally I seemed to have one toon that was luckier than others at crafting precursors prior to H0T release, being my engineer. Since H0T, his ‘luck’ has deserted him and I have not managed to craft one on any toon.

X T D.6458:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

No offense, but I will never believe that for a second.

This is why they generally end up giving up responding to threads like this. It’s why I continue to get a chuckle out of them every time they appear.

Nothing they could ever say will convince those who have already made their minds up.

SirDrygan.1823:

<rng testimony>

So, you tell me if there isn’t a luck factor in a character…..

There isn’t a luck factor in a character. Unless you’re running character-specific MF buffs.

Milkshake.4038:

SirDrygan.1823:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

…… [snip]..

It is hard to get a precursor with 3 or 5 rares

Btw do you want to tell us that you threw a total of 8 rares into MF and you got 2 precursors? You have to include ALL of your attempts if you want to prove something.

I rarely use my ranger, so when I get 4 rare weapons, I will drop them into the forge. and that is how much I drop into the mystic toilet when I am on my ranger. Believe it or not. I don’t care.

The majority of the drops are on my Ele…

CptTrips.6512:

SirDrygan.1823:

John Smith.4610:

snip…….

do you realize that all your chars are on 1 Account?

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Yup. Sorry, I seem to be talking about char luck rather than account luck.

Anyway, I think accounts have nothing to do with luck, it’s the char that has the luck. I believe according to what I have observe, the “luck” is dependent on the char. You may get a char that will drop pre-cursors or get chars that will drop more whites than blues/greens or even yellow. Something like that..

X T D.6458:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

No offense, but I will never believe that for a second. Ive played a lot for over 3 years in every gamemode and I have never once gotten a single precursor drop from any source. At the same time I have known people who have been able to forge dozens literally dozens some over 100 precursors, one person got a precursor their first week. Meanwhile I am still at 0 because of RNG in over 3 years, so you will excuse me for not believing you.

Do you not understand the concept of RNG? I played for 2+ years and go no precursors, then 2 drops for me within a month of each other, and now more than a year has passed and no more has dropped.

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

And what proof can you give us that what you say it true?

Blanche Neige.7241:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

And what proof can you give us that what you say it true?

What actual proof is there it isn’t true?

For the people using the reasoning along the lines of, “Omg I have 10x the hours of my friend, but they have more precursor drops than me!!!!”: you need to realise that your number of hours are not equivalent to the amount of time you have spent doing things that you COULD obtain a precursor from.
For the sake of this explanation, imagine the drop rate of precursors in WvW is 3 times that of a level 80 OW PvE area. A WvW player may spend, let’s say, 1k hours in game and obtains 3 precursors (can’t even imagine this actually happening, it’s just anecdotal). Now, his avid PvE player friend may spend 1k hours wandering around in OW PvE and only obtain 1 precursor. Just because they’ve spent the same amount of time in game, it doesn’t mean they’ve spent the same amount of time doing the same things.
I hope this makes sense. My point is some people with apparent 4k+ hours who are complaining about the RNG ingame and ‘rigged accounts’, etc., could have spent half that time afking and have not taken that into consideration. This is where I believe the large discrepancy between ‘hours played’ and ‘precursors dropped’ comes from.

The question has been asked and answered, even by Anet.... why not close this thread, I cant believe this is still a thing.

Amurond.4590:

X T D.6458:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

No offense, but I will never believe that for a second.

This is why they generally end up giving up responding to threads like this. It’s why I continue to get a chuckle out of them every time they appear.

Nothing they could ever say will convince those who have already made their minds up.

SirDrygan.1823:

<rng testimony>

So, you tell me if there isn’t a luck factor in a character…..

There isn’t a luck factor in a character. Unless you’re running character-specific MF buffs.

I understand what you mean these people will just not believe you because they don’t want to but tbh the devs have the same pose towards this issue they’re saying something without backing it up with evidence. How is this any less wrong then refusing to accept this truth/lie?

Mosferre.1246:

So reading through this, I know that RNG is applied to the Account – but does that mean that the Bell Curve/outlier/etc are all tied to that one account – so if it’s an outlier account – all characters would have the same favourable luck?

Or is it the Character that become the outlier?

Sorry for newbi question – as it seems I have one character that is luckier than the others, but that might just be me being superstitious

Outlier accounts are created through rng and can become lucky accounts through rng.

One account can get 5 precursors from the forge from the first 100 weapons he throws in and another one can not receive a single pre from 10000 weapons thrown in. However, the chance to get a precursor from the next forge attempt was, is and will always be the same for both accounts and all characters on it.

SirDrygan.1823:

I rarely use my ranger, so when I get 4 rare weapons, I will drop them into the forge. and that is how much I drop into the mystic toilet when I am on my ranger. Believe it or not. I don’t care.

The majority of the drops are on my Ele…

I believe you, everything that has a non zero chance can happen. Your case is very very rare (chance is like 1:500 000), but I bet there are at least a dozen other characters in the game who got 2 precursors from their first 2 attempts.

Can you make a controlled test with these 2 characters? Same number of attempts, similar items (lvl80 rares for example). If you make 3000 attempts on both characters that would be enough.

Nash.2681:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Granted and accepted. But this doesn’t explain why you guys still stick to this kitten concept. I remember this very thread where we were called to discuss about rng as a concept, still everything is tied to RNG. Even more so when it’s possible to get some of the most valuable items (precursors) for the least challenging content (killing trash mobs in open world).
An no, I do not consider precursor crafting as a relief here. A mindless grindfest that simply doubles the cost for a legendary is no compensation for those cursed by rngsus.

You would either have RNG or a method that would be a grind. If items were any easier then everyone would have items sooner and there would be nothing for them to work towards. Imagine if you were able to obtain every skin in the game through casual play within a year and every skin released after that with not so much effort.

This is an MMO, and like other MMO’s, there’s RNG and grind. Fortunately, in GW2, this grind isn’t required as it’s just for cosmetic items only as no content is locked behind a grind except for high level fractals. Even then, you’re not experiencing anything different than you did for the previous levels.

All the anecdotes and n=1 conjectures are amusing to read.

Although I think there’s a huge lacking of superstitions to give all these stories more flavor… someone must kiss a lucky stone before attempting a MF precursor, or pet their lucky cat before opening a dragon chest… something. Are those plastic trolls with the wild-colored hair still a thing people use for luck?

~EW

I was talking about this with a guildie at the weekend, he said he gets about 1 exotic a month if he’s lucky while i was talking to him i threw the mornings rares in the forge and got 4 exotics in 5 tries.

Yes we all have the same odds of finding items, i myself think my account is lucky.
Had several precursors from drops and forge, more exotics than i can count and had probably around 70-80 ascended boxes including teq hoarde 4 times.

I find it a little sad some people have such crappy luck hope it turns around soon for those players.

ToT.7018:

I was talking about this with a guildie at the weekend, he said he gets about 1 exotic a month if he’s lucky while i was talking to him i threw the mornings rares in the forge and got 4 exotics in 5 tries.

Yes we all have the same odds of finding items, i myself think my account is lucky.
Had several precursors from drops and forge, more exotics than i can count and had probably around 70-80 ascended boxes including teq hoarde 4 times.

I find it a little sad some people have such crappy luck hope it turns around soon for those players.

Well yes you were lucky with those 5 attempts, but what about the rest? People tend to only remember their winnings, like gamblers who say: ‘Hey I have won 1000 dollars!’ But he doesn’t say anything about losing 10k earlier.

ToT.7018:

I was talking about this with a guildie at the weekend, he said he gets about 1 exotic a month if he’s lucky while i was talking to him i threw the mornings rares in the forge and got 4 exotics in 5 tries.

Yes we all have the same odds of finding items, i myself think my account is lucky.
Had several precursors from drops and forge, more exotics than i can count and had probably around 70-80 ascended boxes including teq hoarde 4 times.

I find it a little sad some people have such crappy luck hope it turns around soon for those players.

In your friend’s case, does he do the same as you and throw their rares into the forge?

My odds i would say probably just over 1 exo every 3 tries. Me and my friend sort of joke about it, i get lot of exos not many pre’s he gets lots pre’s not many normal exos.
I played with him almost since start and both of our accounts are ‘lucky’

Since Saturday i had 18 exos for salvaging (no black lion kits) mostly from fractals and have probably listed the same again on the trade post.

So i can quite understand why people think there is bad and good accounts.

Ayrilana.1396:

ToT.7018:

I was talking about this with a guildie at the weekend, he said he gets about 1 exotic a month if he’s lucky while i was talking to him i threw the mornings rares in the forge and got 4 exotics in 5 tries.

Yes we all have the same odds of finding items, i myself think my account is lucky.
Had several precursors from drops and forge, more exotics than i can count and had probably around 70-80 ascended boxes including teq hoarde 4 times.

I find it a little sad some people have such crappy luck hope it turns around soon for those players.

In your friend’s case, does he do the same as you and throw their rares into the forge?

Yes that particular friend does use the forge, he’s just not lucky at all

ToT.7018:

My odds i would say probably just over 1 exo every 3 tries. Me and my friend sort of joke about it, i get lot of exos not many pre’s he gets lots pre’s not many normal exos.
I played with him almost since start and both of our accounts are ‘lucky’

Since Saturday i had 18 exos for salvaging (no black lion kits) mostly from fractals and have probably listed the same again on the trade post.

So i can quite understand why people think there is bad and good accounts.

With that chance you should be a millionaire now. You have ~20% chance to get an exotic from 4 level 80 rares.

Milkshake.4038:

ToT.7018:

My odds i would say probably just over 1 exo every 3 tries. Me and my friend sort of joke about it, i get lot of exos not many pre’s he gets lots pre’s not many normal exos.
I played with him almost since start and both of our accounts are ‘lucky’

Since Saturday i had 18 exos for salvaging (no black lion kits) mostly from fractals and have probably listed the same again on the trade post.

So i can quite understand why people think there is bad and good accounts.

With that chance you should be a millionaire now. You have ~20% chance to get an exotic from 4 level 80 rares.

I have enough gold to last me don’t worry lol, have made several legendaries including some as presents for my friends. Also have lots of things from gem shop from converting gold. As I said I cant complain about luck at all.
Just trying to show good/bad side of accounts.

ToT.7018:

I have enough gold to last me don’t worry lol, have made several legendaries including some as presents for my friends. Also have lots of things from gem shop from converting gold. As I said I cant complain about luck at all.
Just trying to show good/bad side of accounts.

But the 1/3 chance you mentioned is unbelievable to me. Maybe if you make 100 attempts and you are lucky. If you make 1000 attempts and you get 330+ exotics, then something is wrong.

Blood Red Arachnid.2493:

Ayrilana.1396:

Blood Red Arachnid.2493:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Blood Red Arachnid.2493:

Right now I have yet to hear a disproof of unlucky people in general, let alone game accounts.

The burden is on those seeking to change the status quo to prove that there is a problem that needs to be addressed. There’s been no evidence shown in this thread (or any other) that demonstrates that the results are anything other than predictable.

At any given moment, some people have had better drops and some have had worse. Everyone agrees that happens.

The question raised in this thread is whether that same ‘luckiness’ applies to the same accounts tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow…and there’s zero evidence for that.

tl;dr past performance cannot be used to predict future earnings.

The thing is, that conclusion is just pressing the prior assumption that these drops are all independent of each other. If they aren’t, well…

BTW I don’t think there are lucky or unlucky accounts. I just recognize that, without the actual code displayed for determining luck and drops, that there’s no evidence to discern between a fair system that has a random awards resembling a bell curve, or a system that is randomly unfair, and this distribution of unfairness itself resembles a bell curve.

Let’s assume that Anet released the actual code. Do you think most of the players would even understand it? They’d be relying on the what others say about it which is no different that relying on what Anet says about it.

It’s quite a bit different, really. Peer review and third party verification are useful things, and they speak volumes more than whatever company officially sanctioned post will say.

In this topic there are people seriously thinking there’s some hidden bug that Anet’s programmers can’t find. And you expect them to believe someone else who will say the code is clean? They will still think the same…

Milkshake.4038:

ToT.7018:

I have enough gold to last me don’t worry lol, have made several legendaries including some as presents for my friends. Also have lots of things from gem shop from converting gold. As I said I cant complain about luck at all.
Just trying to show good/bad side of accounts.

But the 1/3 chance you mentioned is unbelievable to me. Maybe if you make 100 attempts and you are lucky. If you make 1000 attempts and you get 330+ exotics, then something is wrong.

Yes, if something like that happens, you should definitely post a result of it somewhere, because it would strongly suggest there is an actual bug.
Though, so far i heard a lot of people claiming such occurences, but (beyond that one infamous ecto case) never saw anyone posting anything to back it up.

Mosferre.1246:

So reading through this, I know that RNG is applied to the Account – but does that mean that the Bell Curve/outlier/etc are all tied to that one account – so if it’s an outlier account – all characters would have the same favourable luck?

Or is it the Character that become the outlier?

Both, and neither. Both, because depending on whether you compare accounts or characters, those will be the outliers. Neither, because you don’t become the outlier. You are (or aren’t) one – and only at that specific moment. An Account/Character that was an outlier yesterday may be deep in the middle of the bell curve a month later (and vice versa). Being or not being an outlier at any moment does not (as Wanze mentioned) affect your chances of getting good drops on the next try at all. It is only a measure of your past results.

Curo.2483:

So we’ve all heard the “my friend has better RNG than me stories”, and most of us know that computers cannot actually create random numbers, and there must be a ‘random seed’ based off something. And if we put 2 and 2 together, it looks like some accounts have better RNG due to some sort of innate calculation tied to their account.

So the question is this: are we just wearing tinfoil hats, and the fact that my friend with 900 hours in the game has 4 precursors and 2 unlimited bank access contracts. compared to my zero anything over 4.5k hours, is just to be chalked up to RNG? I get that. But how many people can relate to this story? Yes, we all know about biases. But how long are we going to say things like “random is random” (which we know it isn’t), and “your sample size is low” (which by this time, is not), and “you’re not factoring in other variables” (which we are)?

When are we going to actually look at “lucky” accounts (and I use quotes there because we know computers can’t generate random numbers)? Can we start talking about things like “is it right”, and “how can we level out this uneven distribution of wealth through drops?” When can we stop insulting each others’ intelligence, and address the issue at hand?

Computers may not be able to generate truly random numbers,but they are “random” enough as to suit that purpose. My answer to you is..“confirmation bias”,“sample size”.
Do a little bit of reading. There are no innately lucky or unlucky accounts.

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Then how do you explain a person getting 5 precursors in 20 forges? Luck? Hell no because that same guy will get a precursor drop off a mob in WvW then the next day will get 3 ascended chests and the next day will get another pre off a random mob…. While a person like me can play for 4k hours and not get a single pre.

Beast Sos.1457:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Then how do you explain a person getting 5 precursors in 20 forges? Luck? Hell no because that same guy will get a precursor drop off a mob in WvW then the next day will get 3 ascended chests and the next day will get another pre off a random mob…. While a person like me can play for 4k hours and not get a single pre.

Same here around 5K hours; no matter what I play or what I put in the forge (& I did put a lot before the prec annoucement like all my yellow weap since 3 years) I never got one.

During this time lot of people of my guild got prec from forge.

Fractal is the same kind of bullkitten: 1 guildmate get an ascended chest almost every 4 days (even 2 sometimes), me none since one month.

So please stop with the “everything fine” when it’s not.

Beast Sos.1457:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Then how do you explain a person getting 5 precursors in 20 forges? Luck? Hell no because that same guy will get a precursor drop off a mob in WvW then the next day will get 3 ascended chests and the next day will get another pre off a random mob…. While a person like me can play for 4k hours and not get a single pre.

Time played in the game does not influence whether you will get a precursor drop. Just like someone playing the lottery for 60 years is no more likely to win than someone who has played for one year. You need to take a closer look at probability.

papry.8096:

Beast Sos.1457:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Then how do you explain a person getting 5 precursors in 20 forges? Luck? Hell no because that same guy will get a precursor drop off a mob in WvW then the next day will get 3 ascended chests and the next day will get another pre off a random mob…. While a person like me can play for 4k hours and not get a single pre.

Same here around 5K hours; no matter what I play or what I put in the forge (& I did put a lot before the prec annoucement like all my yellow weap since 3 years) I never got one.

During this time lot of people of my guild got prec from forge.

Fractal is the same kind of bullkitten: 1 guildmate get an ascended chest almost every 4 days (even 2 sometimes), me none since one month.

So please stop with the “everything fine” when it’s not.

Hours played doesn’t matter when it comes to precursor drops.

Everything is fine. You’re only focusing on the outliers on either end which is not representative of how things are.

Ayrilana.1396:

papry.8096:

Beast Sos.1457:

John Smith.4610:

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

Then how do you explain a person getting 5 precursors in 20 forges? Luck? Hell no because that same guy will get a precursor drop off a mob in WvW then the next day will get 3 ascended chests and the next day will get another pre off a random mob…. While a person like me can play for 4k hours and not get a single pre.

Same here around 5K hours; no matter what I play or what I put in the forge (& I did put a lot before the prec annoucement like all my yellow weap since 3 years) I never got one.

During this time lot of people of my guild got prec from forge.

Fractal is the same kind of bullkitten: 1 guildmate get an ascended chest almost every 4 days (even 2 sometimes), me none since one month.

So please stop with the “everything fine” when it’s not.

Hours played doesn’t matter when it comes to precursor drops.

Everything is fine. You’re only focusing on the outliers on either end which is not representative of how things are.

I don’t pretend to do statistics & in all truth; I don’t care. This is just unrewarding.
Spending time in the game to have bad reward most of/all the time(no precursor & almost no ascended chest drop) whereas someone have a lot.
That’s the point there.