Guild Wars 2

I know i’m going to flamed here but it is almost statistically impossible to salvage 7 rare in a row with a master kit and get no ectos. I will track more but for now i will just sell rares on the tp. Also very low salvage rate on dark mater with blk for exotics. I spoke with some other and they are having similar results with masters kits. btw masters kits net .9 ectos per rare. So i am asking others to record their statistics on salvage to see if there was a shift in the expected results after the patch

You’ll need a larger pool of info before that can be proved, but if you get it post it.

Here’s some required reading.

You can very easily salvage 10 rare items with actual salvage rate of 0.9 and still get only 1-2 ectos in return. It’s nothing out of the ordinary.

B/c we all know anet just wants you to do kitten longer so you stay in there messed up little fantasy world.. With so much broken atm I am amazed at the praise people are giving them. They need to fix class bugs that have been there from launch and stop the treadmill gear progression they have begun.

And i have tested this to. You don’t have any real chance of getting ectos anymore. I salvaged about 15 rares got 3. That’s a bit steep even for me.

It’s just another carrot on a stick anet is putting out there for us..

TheZeus.8617:

B/c we all know anet just wants you to do kitten longer so you stay in there messed up little fantasy world.. With so much broken atm I am amazed at the praise people are giving them. They need to fix class bugs that have been there from launch and stop the treadmill gear progression they have begun.

And i have tested this to. You don’t have any real chance of getting ectos anymore. I salvaged about 15 rares got 3. That’s a bit steep even for me.

It’s just another carrot on a stick anet is putting out there for us..

I salvage 100-200 rares per day. I get an average of ~90 ectos per 100 salvages for months now.

I flipped a coin and it came up Heads, therefore Tails must have a lower probability.

ecto savage rate didnt decreased at teq patch, it decreased since level 500 weapon/huntsman/artificer patch

People don´t know statistics yet they use them on as an argument for their posts.

There was a time where ectos worth 30+ silver and rares where 28+ silver each. this lasted for months. If the rate haven´t change on savaging then why would ectos worth 32+ silver and rares went down to 25. (OMG this sample is as big as 10000+ rares) I guess people who know nothing about how the actual statistic studies are made would say i need to buy the rare and savage it myself.

The decrease on ecto savage rate is a FACT even if people don´t want to accept it, but for those who already did, start thinking on the reason behind this change. Rares are more common since magic find increase was allowed.

If you allow people to reach their maximum gold potential they will be able to buy anything they wanted on the game. This is the reason why i have quited most of my previous game. You must have a goal if you want to keep playing this game, and since there is no actual ingame goal as Being top tier PvPer, Best WvW server, Complete all the Pve content, (noone of this feel rewarding )

The only thing left is to hoard large amount of currency I would say more than 2/3 of people who play GW2 daily only care about this. So Anet just want to make it harder.

Or the rare supplies went down during the QP and invasion farm trains. Then right after ascended weapons came out and everyone needed ectos to craft their way up to 500. (If I recall its ~10 discoveries to go from 475-500, and a little bit less from 425-450, and more if you didn’t want to wait for refinement to take you most of the way between 450-475). Each discovery takes 5 ectos and some people sold their crafted exotics to try to get money back, others salvaged them for dark matter (and hopefully more ectos to put back into crafting). And multiply that by three (slightly less ectos for artificer because of potions).

The demand for ectos is what put the price up, and also the month long of most people not getting rares off of world bosses (instead farming money, which also will drive up the cost of everything slightly because of inflation) which means less ectos.

to help your research (maybe? )

I salvaged 4 rares last night and got 8 ectos 2 rares produced 3 each while 2 produced 1 each and 2 produced none.

I’ve had terrible luck with ecto salvaging, but with the dropping price of rares/increasing price of ecto’s, i rather take the risk to salvage anyway. A few days ago i had like 0,4 ecto rate, very bad, today i think i’ve had 1,4 ecto rate.

All about luck. My advice is, if you dont want risk either sell the rares, or stack them and salvage 20+ rares in row. Then bad luck streaks will have a hard time keeping themselfs up against RNG probability (that being said, everything is still possible.).

Yeah, high ecto and rare prices can very easily be explained by the sudden increase in demand, same thing for t6 mats, for a while there oris became 13s, I don’t salvage that many rares but I don’t think it has decreased.

Considering I’ve salvaged 4 items and they’re all 0 I agree, something must be done about the chances of getting 0 they need to change it to 1 so that we can all progress. As it stands I pretty much make more money by selling the few rares and exotics I find instead of risking getting 0. That’s what I’ll be doing from now on since they don’t listen to their playerbase about this issue.

if a lot of people are getting 0 isn’t it possible that it’s a bug, not a decrease in rate?

Kim Of Sin.4178:

I know i’m going to flamed here but it is almost statistically impossible to salvage 7 rare in a row with a master kit and get no ectos.

I don’t think that word means what you think it means…

Seems every time there is a new patch, a new thread like this appears.

I salvaged around 70 ecto-viable rares once, using a Mystic Salvage Kit, and didn’t get even one ecto back. This was monthes ago before any complaints about nerfed ecto rates from salvaging, and before the salvage rate bug Anet actually confirmed once was introduced aswell.

I’m just a terribly unlucky person. RNG will be RNG.

That being said, it would be nice if Anet would put some RNG fail-safes in the game for those of us who are terribly unlucky. I’m pretty sure GW2’s RNG is algorithm based, rather than true RNG. At least my experiences in the game appear to have suggested this.

I just wish they’d drop the whole RNG element from the salvaging process. It makes finding yellows very unrewarding if you are left with nothing to show for them.

Afaik you get roughly 8 ectos for every 10 yellows you salvage. But then you get 2-3 ectos for roughly 10% of them meaning roughly half your salvages are duds.

Why can’t they just say “right, 1 ecto for every salvage”? Isn’t there enough RNG involved in finding the yellow item in the first place?

all those people calling BS and saying stupid things as ecto rate is the same as before and you can get atleast 1 ecto for each rare go spend all your gold buying rares they are 24 silver cheapest lvl 80 ones and go sell ectos for 32 silver.

1 of 2 posibilities, iether you Win and hence repeat the process to end up with infinite amount of gold, or you realize that rare prices drop for a good reason.

salvaged 7 rares in a row , 0 ecto. As I said in an earlier thread similar to this , something is not right at the moment and it’s not rng.

You (the OP and the others agreeing with them) are the people casinos LOVE.

“This guy just rolled two dice 6 times and didn’t come up 7 or 11 on any of his rolls! Clearly he is ‘on fire’ and I should bet he won’t this time.”

“This guy just rolled two dice 6 times and didn’t come up 7 or 11 on any of his rolls! Clearly he is ‘used up’ and I should bet he will crap out this time.”

These are both examples of the gambler’s fallacy, and they are both wrong. To the guy who said “rare prices are below ecto prices” they should be, because the expected return is .9 ectos per rare. In fact, most rares are, gasp, 90% of the costs of an ecto. Shocking how the market can make right decisions when it’s users can’t.

Benkei.6293:

all those people calling BS and saying stupid things as ecto rate is the same as before and you can get atleast 1 ecto for each rare go spend all your gold buying rares they are 24 silver cheapest lvl 80 ones and go sell ectos for 32 silver.

1 of 2 posibilities, iether you Win and hence repeat the process to end up with infinite amount of gold, or you realize that rare prices drop for a good reason.

You wouldn’t win. The salvage rate is reckoned to be approximately 0.9 ectos per rare (if it hasn’t changed). 32 silver x 0.9 = 28.8 silver, then once you take the 15% TP cut off that, you’re down to.. about 24.5 silver. And I’m not seeing high level rares cheaper than that.

Prices look to be exactly where they should be, if ecto salvage rates have not changed.

Ugh.

As it stands you need ectos for quite a few things. It’s disheartening to have salvaged several rares, which, as they are, are rares, and get nothing out of it.

Play safe and sell the rares, OR.. just salvage though them in large blocks (Without counting) and deposit your ectos. When you suddenly can’t deposit ectos, you will be happy to know that there is a good stack in your inventory!

Ecto salvage rates have bugged in the past. I don’t know why people think it’s so far fetched for it to happen again. I don’t think anet ninja nerfed ecto rates but it’s possible that it’s bugged. I and many others in my guild think something may be up. I know rng is rng so it’s hard to say if rates are truly down.

Lowest ecto salvage rates I’ve had in months. So few salvage above 1 this past month. no 3’s, a couple 2’s…. SO MANY 0’s.

600 Rares salvaged today, only got 442 ectos out of them. I normally get somewhere in the upper 500s.

Edit: I take it back. Must have just been getting unlucky for a while. People posting their recent salvage rates on ectos convinced me it is still about the same.

I salvaged 3 Lvl 80 rares this morning with a black lion kit and got one each from two of them and nothing from the other one

Saturday night I salvaged 150 rare armors with master salvage kits, I got 139 ectos. 135 would be the accepted average.

Last week before the patch I kept track a bit as I was salvaging another 150 rare armors. The first 10 yielded 15 ectos. The next 10 yielded 3. In small batches you will have streaks both good or bad. After 100 I had 88 ectos and at 150 I had 137.

Random is random.

Another mathematics lesson for you all.

The mathematical principle that governs probabilities in these situations is called the law of large numbers. It basically states that given ‘enough’ attempts, the number of successes vs. failures will balance out to their expected probabilities, in this case, 0.9 ectos per rare salvaged. Now, OP, I know 7 is a lot of your fingers, but you have to count a lot higher before you can say things like ‘rates are nerfed’. Try at least 200. I could calculate what the cutoff on trials is to get 95% confidence on any change in the rates but that would require me to dig out my statistics textbook…

like I posted elsewhere, I’m seeing an increase in ectos if anything this update…

Kim Of Sin.4178:

I know i’m going to flamed here but it is almost statistically impossible to salvage 7 rare in a row with a master kit and get no ectos. I will track more but for now i will just sell rares on the tp. Also very low salvage rate on dark mater with blk for exotics. I spoke with some other and they are having similar results with masters kits. btw masters kits net .9 ectos per rare. So i am asking others to record their statistics on salvage to see if there was a shift in the expected results after the patch

Improbable things do happen.

With 0.9 ectos per rare, to not get one in 7 salvages is a chance of 47%. That’s hardly “statistically impossible”. In fact … it’s statistically inevitable to happen to every single person in the game sooner rather later later.

Do the math before claiming things.

marnick.4305:

Improbable things do happen.

With 0.9 ectos per rare, to not get one in 7 salvages is a chance of 47%. That’s hardly “statistically impossible”. In fact … it’s statistically inevitable to happen to every single person in the game sooner rather later later.

Do the math before claiming things.

I think you did the math incorrectly. You did .9^7, but that’s not quite right. If it was just a 90% chance to get 1 ecto or a 10% chance to get 0 ectos, you’d be correct. Instead, it seems like it’s something more like 3 “rolls” per salvage with a rate of ??% chance for an ecto.

In that case, the chance of getting 0 ecto on 7 salvages is actually .??^21.

Or maybe I’m way overthinking it/completely wrong. But 47% seems far too high of a rate for 0 ecto on 7 salvages.

dakotahkid.2685:

to help your research (maybe? )

I salvaged 4 rares last night and got 8 ectos 2 rares produced 3 each while 2 produced 1 each and 2 produced none.

You salvaged 4 rares and post results of 6 lol….

marnick.4305:

Kim Of Sin.4178:

I know i’m going to flamed here but it is almost statistically impossible to salvage 7 rare in a row with a master kit and get no ectos. I will track more but for now i will just sell rares on the tp. Also very low salvage rate on dark mater with blk for exotics. I spoke with some other and they are having similar results with masters kits. btw masters kits net .9 ectos per rare. So i am asking others to record their statistics on salvage to see if there was a shift in the expected results after the patch

Improbable things do happen.

With 0.9 ectos per rare, to not get one in 7 salvages is a chance of 47%. That’s hardly “statistically impossible”. In fact … it’s statistically inevitable to happen to every single person in the game sooner rather later later.

Do the math before claiming things.

Except it’s not. There are four outcomes per roll, each with their own probability. We don’t know what that is, nobody really bothered recording every salvage attempt to see if it’s 0,1, 2 or 3 ectos to establish a base line. What we do know is that with a large enough sample, it averages out to around 0.90. As far as we know there could be a 30% chance or even higher of getting none and it’s the chances of 2 or 3 that brings the average up to 0.90. All we can say for certain with master kits is it’s not a D4-1 ectos per salvage, that would yield 1.50 per.

ZilentNight.5089:

dakotahkid.2685:

to help your research (maybe? )

I salvaged 4 rares last night and got 8 ectos 2 rares produced 3 each while 2 produced 1 each and 2 produced none.

You salvaged 4 rares and post results of 6 lol….

Well when you only have four digits per hand… Ha Ha Ha

are we really doing this thread again

Aycee.9162:

600 Rares salvaged today, only got 442 ectos out of them. I normally get somewhere in the upper 500s.

decent sample size. This does look a bit low….

Wukunlin.8461:

Aycee.9162:

600 Rares salvaged today, only got 442 ectos out of them. I normally get somewhere in the upper 500s.

decent sample size. This does look a bit low….

looks completely made up to me…

The Ecto prices and the rare market are unaffected, thus the salvage rate is fine. If there were a bug like last time it would be reflected in the market.

Behellagh.1468:

Except it’s not. There are four outcomes per roll, each with their own probability. We don’t know what that is, nobody really bothered recording every salvage attempt to see if it’s 0,1, 2 or 3 ectos to establish a base line. What we do know is that with a large enough sample, it averages out to around 0.90. As far as we know there could be a 30% chance or even higher of getting none and it’s the chances of 2 or 3 that brings the average up to 0.90. All we can say for certain with master kits is it’s not a D4-1 ectos per salvage, that would yield 1.50 per.

A while ago, I did a salvage test where I salvaged 200 rares and recorded reach result (You may have posted in there). It was 64 results of 0 ectos out of 200, so a 32% chance of getting 0 ectos. Assuming this is the correct probability, the probability of getting 0 ectos from 7 salvages is 0.03%.

However, this argument still remains unconvincing. Improbable things do happen. And as always, there’s absolutely no documentation in this thread.

Benkei.6293:

ecto savage rate didnt decreased at teq patch, it decreased since level 500 weapon/huntsman/artificer patch

People don´t know statistics yet they use them on as an argument for their posts.

There was a time where ectos worth 30+ silver and rares where 28+ silver each. this lasted for months. If the rate haven´t change on savaging then why would ectos worth 32+ silver and rares went down to 25. (OMG this sample is as big as 10000+ rares) I guess people who know nothing about how the actual statistic studies are made would say i need to buy the rare and savage it myself.

The decrease on ecto savage rate is a FACT even if people don´t want to accept it, but for those who already did, start thinking on the reason behind this change. Rares are more common since magic find increase was allowed.

If you allow people to reach their maximum gold potential they will be able to buy anything they wanted on the game. This is the reason why i have quited most of my previous game. You must have a goal if you want to keep playing this game, and since there is no actual ingame goal as Being top tier PvPer, Best WvW server, Complete all the Pve content, (noone of this feel rewarding )

The only thing left is to hoard large amount of currency I would say more than 2/3 of people who play GW2 daily only care about this. So Anet just want to make it harder.

Having nothing at all to do with how many ectos people need to level their crafting from 400 to 500 in three different disciplines. You didn’t think that would increase ecto prices?

I think maybe you’re drawing a hard to defend confusion here.

You’re saying the crafting patch spiked the price of ectos and you’ve randomly decided to blame it on salvages.

Three professions, countless ectos needed by a bunch of people are going to drive the price of ectos up.

Ursan.7846:

Behellagh.1468:

Except it’s not. There are four outcomes per roll, each with their own probability. We don’t know what that is, nobody really bothered recording every salvage attempt to see if it’s 0,1, 2 or 3 ectos to establish a base line. What we do know is that with a large enough sample, it averages out to around 0.90. As far as we know there could be a 30% chance or even higher of getting none and it’s the chances of 2 or 3 that brings the average up to 0.90. All we can say for certain with master kits is it’s not a D4-1 ectos per salvage, that would yield 1.50 per.

A while ago, I did a salvage test where I salvaged 200 rares and recorded reach result (You may have posted in there). It was 64 results of 0 ectos out of 200, so a 32% chance of getting 0 ectos. Assuming this is the correct probability, the probability of getting 0 ectos from 7 salvages is 0.03%.

However, this argument still remains unconvincing. Improbable things do happen. And as always, there’s absolutely no documentation in this thread.

Your sample size wasn’t huge, but it’s large enough to get an estimate, so the chance of 0 is probably around 30 to 35% probably around. So some noob maths gives these percentages
100*.3^7=.022% 100*.32^7=.034% 100*.33^7=.043% and 100*(1/3)^7=.046% 100*.35^7=.064%

Considering the amount of players and the amount of rares each player salvages, I’d say .03% and the others are rather high. For example, the .03% would average 3 times out of every 10,000 times 7 ectos get salvaged in a row, and the community as a whole salvages a LOT of rares.

Just did a batch of 50 rares, got 53 ectos. Did another batch a little while ago and got just short of 9 ectos per 10 rares. Both times I had streaks where I got nothing, but it was later made up for multiple 2/3 ectos at a time in a row. That’s just how random things play out.

If you told a typical person to make a random list of 1’s and 0’s they would exclude long streaks (which would naturally occur). Their list would be far from being actually random. I think this is what a lot of people here are expecting… an unnaturally uniform distribution of exctos within a small sample size.

A sample size of 4,7,whatever isn’t enough. Heck even the 100 or so that I did aren’t conclusive because of the nature of things being random (although it’s far better than the single digit sample sizes).

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Wukunlin.8461:

Aycee.9162:

600 Rares salvaged today, only got 442 ectos out of them. I normally get somewhere in the upper 500s.

decent sample size. This does look a bit low….

looks completely made up to me…

The Ecto prices and the rare market are unaffected, thus the salvage rate is fine. If there were a bug like last time it would be reflected in the market.

Good thing not everything depends on what it looks like to you. I’m not saying the salvage rate went down or up, especially since I had pretty good results today, I just decided to post my outcome of my daily salvages for yesterday since it was relevant to the topic.

timmyf.1490:

marnick.4305:

Improbable things do happen.

With 0.9 ectos per rare, to not get one in 7 salvages is a chance of 47%. That’s hardly “statistically impossible”. In fact … it’s statistically inevitable to happen to every single person in the game sooner rather later later.

Do the math before claiming things.

I think you did the math incorrectly. You did .9^7, but that’s not quite right. If it was just a 90% chance to get 1 ecto or a 10% chance to get 0 ectos, you’d be correct. Instead, it seems like it’s something more like 3 “rolls” per salvage with a rate of ??% chance for an ecto.

In that case, the chance of getting 0 ecto on 7 salvages is actually .??^21.

Or maybe I’m way overthinking it/completely wrong. But 47% seems far too high of a rate for 0 ecto on 7 salvages.

I did the math incorrectly, I know. But I did it in a way that favors your argument, not mine. Because one can get between 0 and 3 ectos, the chance to get no ecto at all is actually larger than 0.9%. As such, getting no ecto at all over 7 salvages is a very realistic 50+%.

When I do the math wrong, I always try to swing to the side I disagree with, for sake of arguments. But the argument is even stronger from my side. 7 salvages in a row without ectos is extremely likely to happen to every player sooner rather than later.

Aberrant.6749:

Just did a batch of 50 rares, got 53 ectos. Did another batch a little while ago and got just short of 9 ectos per 10 rares. Both times I had streaks where I got nothing, but it was later made up for multiple 2/3 ectos at a time in a row. That’s just how random things play out.

If you told a typical person to make a random list of 1’s and 0’s they would exclude long streaks (which would naturally occur). Their list would be far from being actually random. I think this is what a lot of people here are expecting… an unnaturally uniform distribution of exctos within a small sample size.

A sample size of 4,7,whatever isn’t enough. Heck even the 100 or so that I did aren’t conclusive because of the nature of things being random (although it’s far better than the single digit sample sizes).

I remember reading about how people think random should look like and how it really looks. The guy said, look at the stars in the sky in deep space. They are distributed randomly and they are not smoothly spread out. They are ‘lumpy’. Some places have lots of stars and some have few. And that is true randomness. True randomness has stretches where there are lots and stretches where there are few, including the salvage rates of ectos.

Ursan.7846:

Behellagh.1468:

Except it’s not. There are four outcomes per roll, each with their own probability. We don’t know what that is, nobody really bothered recording every salvage attempt to see if it’s 0,1, 2 or 3 ectos to establish a base line. What we do know is that with a large enough sample, it averages out to around 0.90. As far as we know there could be a 30% chance or even higher of getting none and it’s the chances of 2 or 3 that brings the average up to 0.90. All we can say for certain with master kits is it’s not a D4-1 ectos per salvage, that would yield 1.50 per.

A while ago, I did a salvage test where I salvaged 200 rares and recorded reach result (You may have posted in there). It was 64 results of 0 ectos out of 200, so a 32% chance of getting 0 ectos. Assuming this is the correct probability, the probability of getting 0 ectos from 7 salvages is 0.03%.

However, this argument still remains unconvincing. Improbable things do happen. And as always, there’s absolutely no documentation in this thread.

Well last week or the week before I posted that I noticed that in one 10 item run I only got 3 ectos. The 10 items before that I got 15. These are extremes and the problem with a small samples size. It tricks a person into believing the odds are off but combine them and I got my 0.90.

It’s also impossible to toss heads 10 times in a row. Right. Right???