Guild Wars 2

If roughly 16 million votes were cast (source: today’s livestream), what does this tell us about the size of the active player base? Surely there’s a way to take a stab at that number (with some level of uncertainty). Personally, I voted about 500 times. How many times did you vote?

any engineers out there good at estimating? Statisticians?

Where is the 16 million number coming from?

Personally I vote about 200 times, but I know people who voted <10 as well.

I didn’t keep count of the number of times I voted, but I know it wasn’t 500… more like 100-150

Chopps.5047:

If roughly 16 million votes were cast, what does this tell us about the size of the active player base? Surely there’s a way to take a stab at that number (with some level of uncertainty). Personally, I voted about 500 times. How many times did you vote? Maybe this information helps.

any engineers out there good at estimating? Statisticians?

127 by me

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Where is the 16 million number coming from?

Personally I vote about 200 times, but I know people who voted <10 as well.

I heard that on the livestream today (twitch.tv/guildwars2). Maybe someone has the exact number? It was 16 million something.

Chopps.5047:

If roughly 16 million votes were cast, what does this tell us about the size of the active player base? Surely there’s a way to take a stab at that number (with some level of uncertainty). Personally, I voted about 500 times. How many times did you vote? Maybe this information helps.

any engineers out there good at estimating? Statisticians?

According to my calculations the estimated population of this game based on the vote is somewhere higher than 10, but lower than 16 million, with a 50% chance of error..

BTW, I think I voted about 150 times based on the amount of buttons I got as of last night, but I still had a lot of tokens I never used..

200 for me……………………………………

I can save you the trouble GW2 has approx. 500,000 players give or take a few thousand, who log in a average of 5 times per day for 2.5 million log ins…

So 16m votes, means the average votes cast was 32…

The average forum user will be much higher than that however, cause on average they play way more than average…

It’s to difficult to tell simply from taking a forum poll. People on the forums, especially ones who would actually reply to this thread bias the actual numbers. We also need to take into account some people bought the 2x vote, while many others simply didn’t want to vote because of all the clicking.

Anyway, ignoring everything I just posted I voted about 450 times.

GoldenTruth.2853:

It’s to difficult to tell simply from taking a forum poll. People on the forums, and especially ones who would actually reply to this thread bias the actual numbers. We also need to take into account some people bought the 2x vote, while many others simply didn’t want to vote because of all the clicking.

Anyway, ignoring everything I just posted I voted about 450 times.

Ah, these factors must create significant uncertainty in the estimate. Is there any way to bound this uncertainty? Perhaps a forum poll tells us something we can make an estimate from. I think someone with a better knowledge of statistics could make this more clear. Maybe we learn nothing from such a poll! Or maybe not?

I voted about 50 times to get support buttons for each candidate to get both minis. I logged in today about 5PM my time to cast 349 doubled to 798 meaningful votes, and got to decide whether to save the now Useless Tokens for nostalgia, since the actual polls closing time was artfully concealed unless you looked in just the right places. At least I have bonus unspent gems.

Since I think there are probably many thousands of other players who also thought the multiple statements in various places that the polls close August 5th meant at a minimum 11:59:59 PM August the 5th PDT, and more probably August 5th worldwide, that there is no way to use vote totals for any meaningful estimate.

omg.. yes lets try to tally the number of users when each user’s “vote” can vary from 0 to a few thousand.

uuuuuughh.

Meglobob.8620:

200 for me……………………………………

I can save you the trouble GW2 has approx. 500,000 players give or take a few thousand, who log in a average of 5 times per day for 2.5 million log ins…

So 16m votes, means the average votes cast was 32…

The average forum user will be much higher than that however, cause on average they play way more than average…

And where did the 500k get pulled from cause on most servers i see less then 10k a day (that is generous more like 5k)

My glasses slipped for a second while I was reading the title, and I saw “Estimating poop size based on vote tally”. And then I clicked on the thread anyway. I’m not sure if the absence of scatological statistics should be interpreted as a disappointment or a relief.

I don’t think we should use this as an estimate of the active playerbase. There are some problems with this. 1)Multiple votes: People can vote infinitely. 2)How can you be sure everybody participated?

I voted around 120 times.

I voted about 10 times for Evon, and 500~ times for Ellen.

Voting opened roughly two weeks ago. If we guess that players earn, say, 5 votes per hour on average from adventuring, that would give an average concurrent population of around 10k players.

That might seem like a lot, but spread over 48 servers that gives an average server population of <200 players adventuring (that is, not hanging out in town or doing jump puzzles or other things that don’t give votes)…which seems a little low but not abnormally so when you think about off-peak populations.

I voted around 200 times, all but a few were for evon.

I voted about 200-250 times (estimated).

I didn’t vote and i know a fair few people that didn’t take part. Not done anything to do with the living story since Aetherblades.

I had over 80 and less than 100 tickets.

I voted around 20 times.

Dante.1508:

Meglobob.8620:

200 for me……………………………………

I can save you the trouble GW2 has approx. 500,000 players give or take a few thousand, who log in a average of 5 times per day for 2.5 million log ins…

So 16m votes, means the average votes cast was 32…

The average forum user will be much higher than that however, cause on average they play way more than average…

And where did the 500k get pulled from cause on most servers i see less then 10k a day (that is generous more like 5k)

Same place your numbers got pulled from, probably.

Icy cold Coke in an 8-ounce glass bottle, back when they used cane-sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup — man. That was the stuff.

Gonna guess I voted somewhere between 100 and 150 times. Just a guess, though.

16 million votes
3 million copies sold

each account voted 5 times on average

Tachenon.5270:

Icy cold Coke in an 8-ounce glass bottle, back when they used cane-sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup — man. That was the stuff.

Gonna guess I voted somewhere between 100 and 150 times. Just a guess, though.

You can still buy that coke, but it’s more expensive since it’s usually imported from either Mexico or Canada, though I’m sure some American companies still do it. I think it’s usually about $24 for 36 twelve ounce bottles.

I voted somewhere between 200 times and 250 times.

DarksunG.9537:

omg.. yes lets try to tally the number of users when each user’s “vote” can vary from 0 to a few thousand.

uuuuuughh.

Lol, my thoughts exactly.

510+ based on the buttons in my inventory. I know a friend has more than that and another was maybe half of that.

I voted once.

I played every day this past 2 weeks…

About 10 for Evon and just under 500 for Kiel.

This means that it’s harder to get an accurate picture of population numbers due to people voting for both candidates at once.

Zaxares.5419:

About 10 for Evon and just under 500 for Kiel.

This means that it’s harder to get an accurate picture of population numbers due to people voting for both candidates at once.

The number in the OP is the total number of votes. So you voted 510 times.

Oops… Missed that part. XD