Exotic drop rate problem?

Exotic drop rate problem?

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

I always thought it was strange that when I swap equipment in inventory I see what I was just wearing as if it was “loot” on the right-hand side of my screen just above my mini map, like I just got them. I also thought it stranger that my character would even vocalize a “got rare loot” line when this happened. “You can never have too much treasure” and “Nice gear!” sound familiar to anyone else? I think it has always been like this since day 1, and I swap equipment sets a lot on my characters.

I also always thought this game could benefit from one of those systems you hear about in other games, where if you keep trying at something based on random number generation, the odds get slightly better each time you fail until you succeed. When you succeed the “bonus” resets back down to zero or decreases again. It’s luck with a hint of predictability over a long time, and I have always felt in GW2 like I have one of those “very unlucky accounts” people talk about so much, and Magic Find doesn’t seem to do anything for me. But I do understand the Law of Large Numbers and I try not to be superstitious. I know it has never been officially discussed whether or not Guild Wars 2 implements a system like this.

About a month ago, I thought about both of these things at the same time. I wondered, what if the game believes it has good drops, and the reason is because there is a system like this in place: maybe it increments up to better chances at rare or exotic drops until you get one. But what if it treats swapping equipment in inventory as “looting it again” and resets that counter every time you switch to different armor/weapons/trinkets in inventory?

I have stopped swapping my equipment, and I subjectively and on a small sample size feel like I might possibly be getting slightly better loot now (disclaimer: no math or guarantees here – just my pure subjective speculation).

Has anyone else ever thought it was weird that their character talked about swapping their armor or weapons sets as if they were freshly earning rare loot that was “Better than moot loot?” And does anyone else think that that WOULD interfere with an incrementing-odds loot system if the game used one? Do you feel like you have a “lucky” or “unlucky” account, and do you regularly swap character gear on your account?

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Posted by: Shalloe.4867

Shalloe.4867

if that was the case then crafting exotics would also have them same effect.

I’ve been playing my warrior mainly for the last week and just started switching weapons a lot more then I use to (Use to always have Great sword and Rifle and never change but started dropping rifle for sword/axe combo when I don’t need range) but have been getting a much higher rate of exotics drop and rare and exotic essence of luck from salvaging. Which I can only assume is due to the birthday boosters 100% magic find increase working :-)

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Posted by: Jahroots.6791

Jahroots.6791

I swap weapons now and again, never armour or trinkets. Been getting more or less the same loot for the last year and some. Lots of rares but very few exotics, and always low-end crap like ‘Stardust’.

Wouldn’t say that my luck is much different from anyone else’s though. Players have been complaining about bland loot as long as I can remember.

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Posted by: Khisanth.2948

Khisanth.2948

I have played my Elementalist and Engineer extensively. There were probably times where I’ve played both for over a month(at multiple hours per day) without ever swapping and not get any exotic drop either. If the system exists and ramps up that slowly then I would say it is irrelevant whether or not it exists on a personal level.

On the other hand doing a scale 10+ fractal seems to give higher boost to drop than anything else in the game.

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Posted by: Dusty Moon.4382

Dusty Moon.4382

I don’t have any issues with this system – Exotics are supposed to be RARE and not easy to get.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

It certainly doesn’t harm your odds to believe in lucky charms, totems, or any other superstition. But don’t expect your luck to change because of it either.

In fact, you could actually harm your rate of acquisition:

  • Not swapping means you might be tagging fewer foes, thus getting fewer drops.
  • Regardless of drop rates, fewer drops means fewer everything.

You want to increase your chances of getting some exotics? Kill more foes more quickly. Getting 100 chances to roll for loot is going to be better than getting only 50 chances.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Odyssey.2613

Odyssey.2613

I don’t know if this is exactly on topic, but I’ll share an experience of mine. I have the worst luck with loot in this game. I’m talking 99.9% of the time it’s utter garbage, while everyone else in my party/guild gets epic swag. Even back in GW1 this was the case. My guildies and I had a running joke that Anet hates me and put my name on a ‘black’ list.

Anyways, I had crap loot all the way up to 115% magic find. I’m talking like 1 exotic a month, if that. Then when I got to 116% to my sheer amazement, I was getting 3-7 exotics a week.

I think Anet’s drop table isn’t based so much on exact percentages, but more of a tier system. For me, the proofs in the pudding.

From my experience, if you want better loot, there are two things you can do.

1. Find/get yourself to that next Magic Find tier
2. Take a month or two break from the game.

The dev team has proven they can’t balance a 2×4 on a cinder block.

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Posted by: ozmaniandevil.6805

ozmaniandevil.6805

Well make of this what you will:

I have played the game for 2 years. Always thought I had an unlucky account. Other people were getting the good drops, including precursors, seemingly all the time. Meanwhile, I had seen an exotic drop maybe once a month, although definitely more when I ground out the FGS champ train for a couple months. And I will also admit I got 2 ascended gear drops in one week there (though never again). I have thrown tons of rares and exos into the MF to no avail.

Anyway, come about 3 weeks ago, all of a sudden I’m getting exos like mad. I mean, seriously, 11 exotic drops in TWO DAYS. So I think “wow, I’m gonna go check and see if my luck at the MF has changed”… and what do you know… I got The Lover from throwing 4 random level 80 rares in there (weapons and armor mish mash).

So, I have no idea how this RNG thing is supposed to work… but it’s maddening 99% of the time. I hit my 1% I guess so I can’t complain anymore.

I hope that everyone who has suffered for the last 2 years with garbage drops can finally get their day also.

TL;DR: If you feel lucky, you probably are. If you don’t … well, stay away from the MF until you do.

Isle of Janthir – Knights of the Rose (KoR)

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

I might not have been clear about what I thought the potential “problem” was in my original post. What I mean is, clicking on that Soldier’s set you use in WvW to wear it instead that Berserker’s set you use for dungeons that you have on right now makes the icons for your Berserker’s set come up as “loot” just above your mini-map. Your character also calls out one of these lines: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Item#Notes which is what your character does when they believe they are looting something.

…the problem is, if that is the case, and if the game uses a system where, say, every time you kill a mob you get a +0.001% at a rare or better item, but where that number just resets to whatever the base chance is when you actually get one of those… then the bonus is resetting back to zero when you switch between your Berserker’s dungeon gear set and your Soldier’s WvW gear set. This would mean that accounts where the user only has one gear set for their character and doesn’t keep an alternate set would feel more lucky, because they wouldn’t be rolling false positives on rare loot to reset the counter.

No one knows if they actually use this incrementing counter system because they have never officially discussed it. But other games do. It eventually, over a very long period of time, makes getting something guaranteed, so it helps add to the fun factor if you find yourself on the statistical outlier tail-end of never getting any good loot, and it also means people who get good loot a lot aren’t getting a bonus because the bonus resets every time they do. It just keeps you from needing to appreciate the Law of Large Numbers when you go months without so much as a single Exotic. Keeps anyone from being a super-statistical outlier either way. So if they do use that system, then the fact that clicking your other armor set on your character makes them go “ooh, a new shiny! such loot! so rares! wow!” might be an indication that we’re getting false positives that keep the low-looting tail-end not actually getting any new loot.

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

if that was the case then crafting exotics would also have them same effect.

…I hadn’t thought about that. It would mean that frequent crafters would be just as bad off as people who hop between game modes and have different gear sets for each mode. :/

I swap weapons now and again, never armour or trinkets. Been getting more or less the same loot for the last year and some. Lots of rares but very few exotics, and always low-end crap like ‘Stardust’.

raises hand I actually still don’t even have the Stardust skin unlocked, though at least two of my guildies got that to drop the last few times we were all playing together – lol.

If the system exists and ramps up that slowly then I would say it is irrelevant whether or not it exists on a personal level.

On the other hand doing a scale 10+ fractal seems to give higher boost to drop than anything else in the game.

Even if the system exists but it ramps up slowly, it still means you won’t find yourself in the statistical outlier tail-end that finds themselves never getting something. Yeah, systems like that can’t ramp up too fast or it becomes LootFest2K14, but they still help prevent super-long dry spells, so I’ll still take it.

Also: does being in a fractal put you on a higher loot table? Maybe I should get into them…

It certainly doesn’t harm your odds to believe in lucky charms, totems, or any other superstition. But don’t expect your luck to change because of it either.

In fact, you could actually harm your rate of acquisition:

  • Not swapping means you might be tagging fewer foes, thus getting fewer drops.
  • Regardless of drop rates, fewer drops means fewer everything.

You want to increase your chances of getting some exotics? Kill more foes more quickly. Getting 100 chances to roll for loot is going to be better than getting only 50 chances.

It is true that more kills = more rolls for loot. I hope I was clearer in what I thought the possible loot problem might be in the post just above this one. I’m not avoiding pressing my weapon-swap key (~ by default) to get better loot, but I am worried that my character seems to think that Soldier’s set I keep in my bag is “new shinies” every time I equip it. Actually, even if the system works exactly as I am musing here, more kills would also mean a faster ramp-up. So we’re all in agreement that our weapons all need a few more notches in them.

Anyways, I had crap loot all the way up to 115% magic find. I’m talking like 1 exotic a month, if that. Then when I got to 116% to my sheer amazement, I was getting 3-7 exotics a week.

1. Find/get yourself to that next Magic Find tier
2. Take a month or two break from the game.

Your post is totally on-topic, btw. I think I’m probably in a decent spot with Magic Find, but it just doesn’t seem to be cutting it for me. As for the taking a break from the game, are you saying that taking an absence from the game might impact drops when you return? That would be an interesting theory to “re-hook” players who had left for a while… hm… that would be really smart, actually…

Anyway, come about 3 weeks ago, all of a sudden I’m getting exos like mad. I mean, seriously, 11 exotic drops in TWO DAYS. So I think “wow, I’m gonna go check and see if my luck at the MF has changed”… and what do you know… I got The Lover from throwing 4 random level 80 rares in there (weapons and armor mish mash).

I really like your post. Helps give me hope that better loot-times are on the way. Ever since I stopped swapping to my other armor set I feel like I might be doing a bit better, but again that’s just a tiny sample size and I know how the Law of Large Numbers works with random spreads over a large period of time. Still lightens my heart a bit to hear your story, and congratulations are in order, btw, so gratz!

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Posted by: MithranArkanere.8957

MithranArkanere.8957

Wait, wait, wait.

Exotic gear drops from enemies?

No way. I have over 5K hours of gameplay and I’ve never seen one such drop. You are lying.

SUGGEST-A-TRON says:
PAY—ONCE—UNLOCKS—ARE—ALWAYS—BETTER.
No exceptions!

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Posted by: GOSU.9574

GOSU.9574

The reward system of this game is horrible, there is no doubt. Everything is set up to be earned by TOIL. You will grind and grind for this, grind and grind for that. Satisfying drops? Almost unheard of. You will TOIL for Laurels, TOIL for Ectos, TOIL for shards, TOIL for gold. You will WORK at this game of LEISURE or you will not be “rewarded”.

There aren’t many MMOs where you kills something uber and you get jack when it comes to a satisfying reward. GW2 is one of them. If you get something it will be going into a stack that is required to stack very high before you can get your TOILED reward.

It seriously drains any fun you thought you would have doing uber events/mobs/whatever. You will WORK, oh yes, the STICK is stronger than the CARROT.

Hey dude you are walking into a wall.

smack..Wut?…smack…smack…

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Posted by: Tao.5096

Tao.5096

dropping exotics once in a while.

See no change in exotic droprate.

Did I ever tell you, the definition, of Insanity?

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Posted by: Cynn.1490

Cynn.1490

I had actually been thinking about this as well. I recently noticed getting more exotics after becoming a little more casual with the game. Originally I had thought that it was because I was playing less, but when I was playing more heavily on one character and swapping armor sets a lot between WvW, dungeons, and world boss train I didn’t notice this at all, I only noticed after I started just swapping characters instead of gear. After the mention of the character calling out gear quality while swapping this actually makes sense. I don’t know if a system that affects drop tables exists in the game, but if it does I could see this accidentally affecting the tables.

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Posted by: Invictus.1503

Invictus.1503

Sometimes I think people forget what words mean. Rare is defined as “(of a thing) not found in large numbers and consequently of interest or value.” Exotics are supposed to be even more rare (similar in comparison to how Rare is to Uncommon"

Drop rate is fine (though my own personal luck seems to suck)

It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt.

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Posted by: Ceridwen.6703

Ceridwen.6703

Hello! I have what could be considered a typically unlucky account (enforced because I’m typically a negative person, even when I try hard not to be. The curse of a naturally down-turned mouth? I’m just not sure). I had one lucky week earlier in the year, when the dungeons were spitting exotics at me like they had some kind of intolerance, and -

*dons tin foil hat*

- the joke was at least two other guildies got the same exotic weapon (not armour, you’ll note) at the same time, which is clearly some kind of supernatural occurrence. I’ve not had hardly a bean since, and don’t get me started on precursors...

...they’re a myth! Invented just to torment me, because I did something heinous in a past life, or something.

*tin foil hat off*

There’s no such thing as unlucky or lucky accounts, but we do colour the outcomes with our perceptions. Chin up, anyone in the unlucky boat (I’m with you, honest!) - we’ll have our day. Some day.

“Ph’nglui mglw’nafh Steve R’lyeh wgah’nagl fhtagn.”

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Posted by: tigirius.9014

tigirius.9014

I’ve had an incessently unlucky account. Seriously, there are whole weeks I go without ever picking up anything but junk. I’ve told my friends that I must be the garbage man of Tyria.

The reasons I call it unlucky aren’t just because I play in the open world, but because I’ve done things with other players in the same guild, typically the same things over and over again only to find the same people getting the same high end loot when they haven’t had much over me in the magic find area. Other people who’ve run with these lucky accounts have had higher magic find than both of us but end up not getting anything hardly doing the same activity day in and day out.

Then there’s the whole chest thing, gone are the days when you’d actually be excited to find some hidden area because the rewards there are simply the same blues and greens you typically get from any trash mob. So exploring is dead.

If it weren’t for the fact that I maxed all of my crafting long ago high enough to make items that I could salvage rather easily, I’d never see an ecto outside of buying them from the store and even that was nerfed.

And before someone comes on here and says something snarky about the tin foil hat, trust me I’ve played 24 mmos at no time in my entire gaming history has this happened save for this game! I get better drops on more stingy games out there than this game, which makes me wonder, just how bad is their DR system.

Balance Team: Please Fix Mine Toolbelt Positioning!

(edited by tigirius.9014)

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Posted by: GOSU.9574

GOSU.9574

Sometimes I think people forget what words mean. Rare is defined as “(of a thing) not found in large numbers and consequently of interest or value.” Exotics are supposed to be even more rare (similar in comparison to how Rare is to Uncommon"

Drop rate is fine (though my own personal luck seems to suck)

This was somewhat acceptable when Exotics were the end game gear, even back then the drop rates were even WORSE. Thats right, new players, they improved drop rates some time ago. However, they are still miserably bad. That once in several weeks Exotic you may get 99% chance you can’t or won’t even use. It’s really bad, it’s really sad. Leisure games such as MMOs are fun due to getting exciting drops from tough battles. Not in GW2. You get a measured item that stacks. After enough stacks you can redeem it or craft it into something else. Then you redeem that or craft it further, eventually you may get the item you are after. This is really bad, nuff said. Completely unsatisfying for a game of leisure. TOIL. You will WORK your kitten off to play our game. FUN!

Hey dude you are walking into a wall.

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

Exotic gear drops from enemies?

I feel this way sometimes too, and like I said, if the game has a system like I described but it thinks your alternate armor set is a new one every time you swap to it, it keeps the rate even more abysmal… :/

Everything is set up to be earned by TOIL… It seriously drains any fun you thought you would have doing uber events/mobs/whatever.

I don’t disagree with you. Sometimes the very low drop rate kinda breaks my spirit a bit too, and while it does make some sense to keep rares/exotics kind of rare, as others have correctly pointed out in this thread, if there is an “increasing odds” system like I suggested in this thread but it treats re-equipping your old/other armor set as getting it new again, I can see how that would move the drop rate from “insult” to borderline “injury” status.

dropping exotics once in a while.

See no change in exotic droprate.

Nice to know they’re still dropping. I am curious, like I mentioned in my initial post, how often you swap armor or other equipment from inventory as well. This would help me see if my theory holds any water.

After the mention of the character calling out gear quality while swapping this actually makes sense. I don’t know if a system that affects drop tables exists in the game, but if it does I could see this accidentally affecting the tables.

So maybe it’s not just me. I know I’m sick of my character saying “you can never have too much treasure” for my dusty old backup armor set. And if the game really believes he is getting a bunch of new gear every time he swaps, it could really mess with the loot system, no?

I don’t have any issues with this system – Exotics are supposed to be RARE and not easy to get.

Sometimes I think people forget what words mean. Rare is defined as “(of a thing) not found in large numbers and consequently of interest or value.” Exotics are supposed to be even more rare (similar in comparison to how Rare is to Uncommon"

Drop rate is fine (though my own personal luck seems to suck)

I agree with you both. The theory I am posing here is that the game might have a system in the background that is not working properly because equipping your alternate armor set might be throwing a wrench in it. This would not be intended if that system did exist, and isn’t directly related to the base item drop rate.

There’s no such thing as unlucky or lucky accounts, but we do colour the outcomes with our perceptions. Chin up, anyone in the unlucky boat (I’m with you, honest!) – we’ll have our day. Some day.

Good to keep a positive attitude. But since you mentioned feeling unlucky… do you keep some extra weapons or armor in your bags that you equip from inventory? The reason I asked about “lucky/unlucky accounts” was because of my possible theory that swapping gear is resetting a factor in how good the loot you get is.

I’ve had an incessently unlucky account. Seriously, there are whole weeks I go without ever picking up anything but junk. I’ve told my friends that I must be the garbage man of Tyria.

And before someone comes on here and says something snarky about the tin foil hat, trust me I’ve played 24 mmos at no time in my entire gaming history has this happened save for this game! I get better drops on more stingy games out there than this game, which makes me wonder, just how bad is their DR system.

At the very least, know that you are not alone. What do you think of the theory I am suggesting here that equipping an alternate armor set from inventory might be shooting us in the foot? Do you keep a spare armor set for a character and switch to it sometimes?

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Posted by: Jahroots.6791

Jahroots.6791

It’s interesting that ‘yellow’ is the only tier defined as Rare, all of the others suggest a level of quality rather than scarcity.

A little rarity is a good thing and adds a sense of value to some items, but the massive gap in the frequency of Rare and Exotic items hardly seems warranted.

Our loot tables need to be spiced up in a general way though. There’s too many items in this game that you almost never see.

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Posted by: tigirius.9014

tigirius.9014

Exotic gear drops from enemies?

I feel this way sometimes too, and like I said, if the game has a system like I described but it thinks your alternate armor set is a new one every time you swap to it, it keeps the rate even more abysmal… :/

Everything is set up to be earned by TOIL… It seriously drains any fun you thought you would have doing uber events/mobs/whatever.

I don’t disagree with you. Sometimes the very low drop rate kinda breaks my spirit a bit too, and while it does make some sense to keep rares/exotics kind of rare, as others have correctly pointed out in this thread, if there is an “increasing odds” system like I suggested in this thread but it treats re-equipping your old/other armor set as getting it new again, I can see how that would move the drop rate from “insult” to borderline “injury” status.

dropping exotics once in a while.

See no change in exotic droprate.

Nice to know they’re still dropping. I am curious, like I mentioned in my initial post, how often you swap armor or other equipment from inventory as well. This would help me see if my theory holds any water.

After the mention of the character calling out gear quality while swapping this actually makes sense. I don’t know if a system that affects drop tables exists in the game, but if it does I could see this accidentally affecting the tables.

So maybe it’s not just me. I know I’m sick of my character saying “you can never have too much treasure” for my dusty old backup armor set. And if the game really believes he is getting a bunch of new gear every time he swaps, it could really mess with the loot system, no?

I don’t have any issues with this system – Exotics are supposed to be RARE and not easy to get.

Sometimes I think people forget what words mean. Rare is defined as “(of a thing) not found in large numbers and consequently of interest or value.” Exotics are supposed to be even more rare (similar in comparison to how Rare is to Uncommon"

Drop rate is fine (though my own personal luck seems to suck)

I agree with you both. The theory I am posing here is that the game might have a system in the background that is not working properly because equipping your alternate armor set might be throwing a wrench in it. This would not be intended if that system did exist, and isn’t directly related to the base item drop rate.

There’s no such thing as unlucky or lucky accounts, but we do colour the outcomes with our perceptions. Chin up, anyone in the unlucky boat (I’m with you, honest!) – we’ll have our day. Some day.

Good to keep a positive attitude. But since you mentioned feeling unlucky… do you keep some extra weapons or armor in your bags that you equip from inventory? The reason I asked about “lucky/unlucky accounts” was because of my possible theory that swapping gear is resetting a factor in how good the loot you get is.

I’ve had an incessently unlucky account. Seriously, there are whole weeks I go without ever picking up anything but junk. I’ve told my friends that I must be the garbage man of Tyria.

And before someone comes on here and says something snarky about the tin foil hat, trust me I’ve played 24 mmos at no time in my entire gaming history has this happened save for this game! I get better drops on more stingy games out there than this game, which makes me wonder, just how bad is their DR system.

At the very least, know that you are not alone. What do you think of the theory I am suggesting here that equipping an alternate armor set from inventory might be shooting us in the foot? Do you keep a spare armor set for a character and switch to it sometimes?

That’s a very interesting theory actually I’ll have to try that you see I keep a whole set of armor in there for dps roles and switch, I keep alternative weapons all exotic. That could very well be if there is a script checking our loot in our inventory to limit our loot from open world that would go a long long way to explaining my experience. I’ll have to try that over the next few weeks to see if this changes by moving this loot into the bank! Thanks for that thought I hadn’t considered that as an issue. IF they do have this system it’s very much misguided considering the number of people who carry extra weapons at the very least.

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Posted by: Tobias Trueflight.8350

Tobias Trueflight.8350

I don’t know about a “problem” and I keep a couple Rares in my one bag for when I need melee – both a sword and greatsword (Ranger, you know.) and a shortbow for a lot of closer-range fights as opposed to longbow.

I see Exotics very rarely, and usually with no warning. And not even ones with cool skins – “Ironfist”, for instance.

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Posted by: Ceridwen.6703

Ceridwen.6703

There’s no such thing as unlucky or lucky accounts, but we do colour the outcomes with our perceptions. Chin up, anyone in the unlucky boat (I’m with you, honest!) – we’ll have our day. Some day.

Good to keep a positive attitude. But since you mentioned feeling unlucky… do you keep some extra weapons or armor in your bags that you equip from inventory? The reason I asked about “lucky/unlucky accounts” was because of my possible theory that swapping gear is resetting a factor in how good the loot you get is.

On a couple of my characters I do, but not all of them.

Today, after I posted my earlier comment in this thread, I did an event and received a pair of Zhed’s (exotic) Boots. These are actually the ones I tend to purchase for the appropriate characters. I didn’t need them today, however, and sold them instead. This was on my main character, who has one and a sixth spare armours, plus extra weapons for swapping about.

Without wanting to second guess you or be too forward, try and think more positively (perhaps even to the point of ignoring the loot and enjoying other parts of the game), and see if it makes a difference?

Or a nice letter to Anet with cupcakes demanding politely requesting answers regarding RNG.

“Ph’nglui mglw’nafh Steve R’lyeh wgah’nagl fhtagn.”

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Posted by: Khisanth.2948

Khisanth.2948

It’s interesting that ‘yellow’ is the only tier defined as Rare, all of the others suggest a level of quality rather than scarcity.

A little rarity is a good thing and adds a sense of value to some items, but the massive gap in the frequency of Rare and Exotic items hardly seems warranted.

Our loot tables need to be spiced up in a general way though. There’s too many items in this game that you almost never see.

Meh … most of the time with an exotics it’s “hurray … I can get more ectos out of this than a rare” or “I guess I could use more Dark Matter” or “the rune/sigil on this will sell nicely”. Sure it’s always nice to get one but is it ever exciting? After two years I don’t think there has been a single one.

The only interesting thing about items in this game is the appearance and way too many items share the same skin.

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Posted by: Loading.4503

Loading.4503

I personally feel like there’s something similar to that with drop rates, it seems like I’ll go for a while without getting anything then I get like 5 exotics at once and then back to nothing for a while.

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Posted by: Theftwind.8976

Theftwind.8976

I personally feel like there’s something similar to that with drop rates, it seems like I’ll go for a while without getting anything then I get like 5 exotics at once and then back to nothing for a while.

I posted a possible explanation for the above observance a few times. If they are using a fixed seed in their random number generator you will see patterns like this as a fixed seed generator will start repeating results after awhile.

Go here for a read and down to the second paragraph under “Setting Seeds”

http://www.codeproject.com/Articles/28548/Pitfalls-in-Random-Number-Generation

Theftwind (HoD)

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Posted by: Astralporing.1957

Astralporing.1957

Nice to know they’re still dropping. I am curious, like I mentioned in my initial post, how often you swap armor or other equipment from inventory as well. This would help me see if my theory holds any water.

It doesn’t, they don’t use Diablo3-like system, but a flat chance one instead (there were some mentions on this from devs in the first year of the game, when they tried to explain how MF works). Mind you, due to DR, effectively you have an opposite system, in which the longer you farm, the less chance you have of dropping anything good.

(but just for your information – i do switch weapons from inventory, and i actually get a lot of rares and exotics, even precursors occasionally. And i don’t really farm, i just kill everything that moves and gets in my way when i am going somewhere).

I posted a possible explanation for the above observance a few times. If they are using a fixed seed in their random number generator you will see patterns like this as a fixed seed generator will start repeating results after awhile.

They are extremely unlikely to use a separate seed for every player (and type of rng). If they used the same seed for every rng-related roll on the account (which would cover way more than just drop generation) it would already skew the result to mask any possible patterns. If they used the same seed for all accounts (which they likely do, because this is the most sensible thing) any patterns from faults of pseudorandom engine would disappear completely.

I do admit that the results often seem weird, but there are other likely explanations for this (with the most probable one being, that it’s just our mind that plays tricks on us by bringing to our notice any “patterns”, and at the same time completely ingoring usual patternles behaviour).

Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November

(edited by Astralporing.1957)

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Posted by: Theftwind.8976

Theftwind.8976

They are extremely unlikely to use a separate seed for every player (and type of rng). If they used the same seed for every rng-related roll on the account (which would cover way more than just drop generation) it would already skew the result to mask any possible patterns. If they used the same seed for all accounts (which they likely do, because this is the most sensible thing) any patterns from faults of pseudorandom engine would disappear completely.

See the 1957 after your name or the 8976 after mine? If that number is used as the fixed seed would it not give each account a separate seed? They have never stated how their generator functions or what type they used. At one time they were going to have a CDI on it but that went by the wayside. I am not a math genius but have monkeyed with random number generators way back when I was fooling around with coding but until they give us a hint to what type of rng they use all possibilities are open for discussion.

Theftwind (HoD)

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Posted by: Astralporing.1957

Astralporing.1957

See the 1957 after your name or the 8976 after mine? If that number is used as the fixed seed would it not give each account a separate seed?

Why? Why would they do that? It would require them to run a separate rng generator process for every player. That would be extremely dumb. I don’t have that good opinion of Anet lately, but even i wouldn’t expect them do be that bad.
And I’m not even going to comment on the idea that they would use a fixed seed…

Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November

(edited by Astralporing.1957)

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

See the 1957 after your name or the 8976 after mine? If that number is used as the fixed seed would it not give each account a separate seed?

Why? Why would they do that? It would require them to run a separate rng generator process for every player. That would be extremely dumb. I don’t have that good opinion of Anet lately, but even i wouldn’t expect them do be that bad.
And I’m not even going to comment on the idea that they would use a fixed seed…

There are 1,000s of way they could code RNG, but not as many that are efficient and sensible. Why would they purposely create a system that would cause some accounts to have permanently better “luck” than others? How does that fit ANet’s design philosophies?

If you choose to believe that there are such things as lucky and unlucky accounts, go ahead. It’s a (mostly) free country. At the same time, I’ll continue to put my faith in the evidence, which doesn’t support such a claim.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: ozmaniandevil.6805

ozmaniandevil.6805

Aren’t drop rates based on the mob? Like, troll #47 has a .0009% chance to drop an exotic? And therefore, with RNG, it will drop maybe 2 exos in a row and then none for the next “x” amount of times it is killed. But, each and every time it is killed, it has the same chance of dropping an exotic. I thought this is how it works. Your magic find % would increase the drop rate per mob. I honestly don’t feel it has anything to do with changing armor. I’ve used the same armor on my necro for about 7 months and have had good and bad “luck”.

Isle of Janthir – Knights of the Rose (KoR)

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Posted by: IndigoSundown.5419

IndigoSundown.5419

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west. I still get almost zero exotic drops. I don’t think there’s a connection.

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

A little rarity is a good thing and adds a sense of value to some items, but the massive gap in the frequency of Rare and Exotic items hardly seems warranted.

Agree completely. I don’t think these things should drop like candy, but at the same time, it almost seems like something is suppressing the drops too much to be intended at times.

That’s a very interesting theory actually I’ll have to try that you see I keep a whole set of armor in there for dps roles and switch, I keep alternative weapons all exotic. That could very well be if there is a script checking our loot in our inventory to limit our loot from open world that would go a long long way to explaining my experience. I’ll have to try that over the next few weeks to see if this changes by moving this loot into the bank! Thanks for that thought I hadn’t considered that as an issue. IF they do have this system it’s very much misguided considering the number of people who carry extra weapons at the very least.

Since creating this topic, I feel like I have seen more exotics than I have in a long time (supported by absolutely no hard data at all). I stopped changing my armor/equip (or washing it lol) and my character stopped talking about what fascinating new loot it was. I’m starting to think I could be on to something here…

I don’t know about a “problem” and I keep a couple Rares in my one bag for when I need melee – both a sword and greatsword (Ranger, you know.) and a shortbow for a lot of closer-range fights as opposed to longbow.

I see Exotics very rarely, and usually with no warning. And not even ones with cool skins – “Ironfist”, for instance.

It would be interesting to keep an eye on it and see if you ever get a rare or exotic shortly after swapping. Not saying it would be impossible if this system was in place, but it would be less likely because it would be at the “default rate.”

Without wanting to second guess you or be too forward, try and think more positively (perhaps even to the point of ignoring the loot and enjoying other parts of the game), and see if it makes a difference?

Or a nice letter to Anet with cupcakes demanding politely requesting answers regarding RNG.

Hah, if I could bake tasty cupcakes I might consider it (or consider switching my line of work!) I do enjoy the game very much, but have often looked for connections between systems, and really, this is all just because my character saying “Nice gear!” for the (insert multiple here) time in a day I was swapping armor got me thinking if he really thought he was getting something new and nice.

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west. I still get almost zero exotic drops. I don’t think there’s a connection.

That would actually be consistent with my theory that swapping equipment resets the drop rate down to base.

…and to everyone talking about RNG seeds, don’t they all usually just go off of a clock, so probably Server Time for GW2?

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Posted by: Tobias Trueflight.8350

Tobias Trueflight.8350

It would be interesting to keep an eye on it and see if you ever get a rare or exotic shortly after swapping. Not saying it would be impossible if this system was in place, but it would be less likely because it would be at the “default rate.”

I would be behind this, except . . .

. . . I mostly just do World Boss tours and hang around trying to get materials to barter off to friends. Or help people do events/skill points. Rather than trying to farm . . .

Seeking assistants for the Asuran Catapult Project. Applicants will be tested for aerodynamics.

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

It would be interesting to keep an eye on it and see if you ever get a rare or exotic shortly after swapping. Not saying it would be impossible if this system was in place, but it would be less likely because it would be at the “default rate.”

I would be behind this, except . . .

. . . I mostly just do World Boss tours and hang around trying to get materials to barter off to friends. Or help people do events/skill points. Rather than trying to farm . . .

I’m just curious about how it works, and kinda fascinated with the idea now that it’s in my head. All things considered I’m probably pretty casual myself and I don’t really think I have the patience to “farm” as you put it. That being said, if keeping the same stinky old armor set on all the time prevents me from actively shooting myself in the foot when it comes to loot, well… maybe I’ll just keep it on for a while longer until this gets sorted out.

Anyway, I was just curious. An experiment “For science!” and all of that. More information in the players’ hands goes a long way.

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Posted by: wiredrawn.7298

wiredrawn.7298

I’ve taken a break twice now from this game since I started playing, both times when I came back after an extended break first thing I did was modify my equipment, traits and weapons. Each time for the first day at least I’ve gotten more exotics then while playing steadily. Also for additional information not sure if it’ll help you guys I was only playing EotM, simply because I could hop in play around, hop out change things up and go right back in.

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

I’ve taken a break twice now from this game since I started playing, both times when I came back after an extended break first thing I did was modify my equipment, traits and weapons. Each time for the first day at least I’ve gotten more exotics then while playing steadily. Also for additional information not sure if it’ll help you guys I was only playing EotM, simply because I could hop in play around, hop out change things up and go right back in.

An interesting theme seems to be coming up in this thread: that taking an absence from the game and then returning may be netting people better drops for a while after they return. That would make sense as a thing to do, because you probably want to “re-hook” a player like that back into the game. I’m looking back at these posts from earlier:

I recently noticed getting more exotics after becoming a little more casual with the game. Originally I had thought that it was because I was playing less…

From my experience, if you want better loot, there are two things you can do.

1. Find/get yourself to that next Magic Find tier
2. Take a month or two break from the game.

Is this something other people have experienced as well? Getting significantly better drops after returning to GW2 from a long(er) break or absence? There might be something to this.

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Posted by: IndigoSundown.5419

IndigoSundown.5419

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west. I still get almost zero exotic drops. I don’t think there’s a connection.

That would actually be consistent with my theory that swapping equipment resets the drop rate down to base.

I think you need to reexamine that scenario. If I never swap equipment and almost never get exotics, it’s because the crappy base drop rates never improve in the first place.

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west. I still get almost zero exotic drops. I don’t think there’s a connection.

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west.

as often as the sun rises in the west.

in the west.

…nope. Just my poor reading comprehension skills coupled with the fact that apparently I am a moron. Lol, my apologies on this one.

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Posted by: IndigoSundown.5419

IndigoSundown.5419

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west. I still get almost zero exotic drops. I don’t think there’s a connection.

I swap equipment about as often as the sun rises in the west.

as often as the sun rises in the west.

in the west.

…nope. Just my poor reading comprehension skills coupled with the fact that apparently I am a moron. Lol, my apologies on this one.

I wondered if that was it. No worries, mate.

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Posted by: rhapsody.3615

rhapsody.3615

Hmm well all I can add for the OP is that I always switch armor before tequatl, and the only exotic I’ve gotten from him is the spoon. I have been fooled into thinking I got an exotic zerker armor with superior rune of strength, because of the way armor looks like loot when you swap, but unfortunately I usually play with game sounds off and I’ve never heard my characters comment on their armor as loot.

I have noticed an increase in exotic drops lately (I’m almost afraid to make Anet aware of the situation xD). For the last month, and after hitting 155% magic find, exotics have been dropping more frequently. I had a week long streak where I was getting 1-2 exotics per day, and most of them out of chests. I looted Xanthium of Dreams (my first precursor priced loot ever) from aether path chest about two weeks ago.. A few nights ago I was joking with a friend about how I’ve never gotten a precursor, and “here let me throw these random exotics away in the forge” and out popped Rage. The next morning I threw four more exotics in, and got Rage AGAIN. It’s not the best precursor, but it’s an extra 80 gold anyway. The mystic forge seems to be upgrading my items slightly more frequently than it used to.

They say magic find only increases the chance of getting a higher tier loot as a drop from an enemy kill, but I have noticed better loot overall from chests and the mystic forge after getting over 155% MF. Edit: forgot to add, after a week long break from the game, it seemed like every champ bag was giving me t6 mats and that’s about the time my lucky streak started.

(edited by rhapsody.3615)

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

Hmm well all I can add for the OP is that I always switch armor before tequatl, and the only exotic I’ve gotten from him is the spoon. I have been fooled into thinking I got an exotic zerker armor with superior rune of strength, because of the way armor looks like loot when you swap, but unfortunately I usually play with game sounds off and I’ve never heard my characters comment on their armor as loot.

I have noticed an increase in exotic drops lately (I’m almost afraid to make Anet aware of the situation xD). For the last month, and after hitting 155% magic find, exotics have been dropping more frequently. I had a week long streak where I was getting 1-2 exotics per day, and most of them out of chests. I looted Xanthium of Dreams (my first precursor priced loot ever) from aether path chest about two weeks ago.. A few nights ago I was joking with a friend about how I’ve never gotten a precursor, and “here let me throw these random exotics away in the forge” and out popped Rage. The next morning I threw four more exotics in, and got Rage AGAIN. It’s not the best precursor, but it’s an extra 80 gold anyway. The mystic forge seems to be upgrading my items slightly more frequently than it used to.

They say magic find only increases the chance of getting a higher tier loot as a drop from an enemy kill, but I have noticed better loot overall from chests and the mystic forge after getting over 155% MF. Edit: forgot to add, after a week long break from the game, it seemed like every champ bag was giving me t6 mats and that’s about the time my lucky streak started.

It’s really interesting that I came in with one theory in this thread, but that another seems to be emerging.

First of all, gratz! Sounds like your proverbial loot-ship has finally come in.

You say you took a break for about a week? With no signing in? And that all of this happened after that? Or was just the T6 mat stuff after the break?

And yeah, I do also find it interesting about Tequatl and never getting any good loot, but then I’ve never seen any good loot from Teq either, even after stopping swapping my armor sets.

…I should take my characters swimming more if I’m going to continue to never swap/wash their armor anymore.

Has anyone else noticed a connection either between how often they swap armor or from taking a break and what their loot was like?

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Posted by: rhapsody.3615

rhapsody.3615

Hmm well all I can add for the OP is that I always switch armor before tequatl, and the only exotic I’ve gotten from him is the spoon. I have been fooled into thinking I got an exotic zerker armor with superior rune of strength, because of the way armor looks like loot when you swap, but unfortunately I usually play with game sounds off and I’ve never heard my characters comment on their armor as loot.

I have noticed an increase in exotic drops lately (I’m almost afraid to make Anet aware of the situation xD). For the last month, and after hitting 155% magic find, exotics have been dropping more frequently. I had a week long streak where I was getting 1-2 exotics per day, and most of them out of chests. I looted Xanthium of Dreams (my first precursor priced loot ever) from aether path chest about two weeks ago.. A few nights ago I was joking with a friend about how I’ve never gotten a precursor, and “here let me throw these random exotics away in the forge” and out popped Rage. The next morning I threw four more exotics in, and got Rage AGAIN. It’s not the best precursor, but it’s an extra 80 gold anyway. The mystic forge seems to be upgrading my items slightly more frequently than it used to.

They say magic find only increases the chance of getting a higher tier loot as a drop from an enemy kill, but I have noticed better loot overall from chests and the mystic forge after getting over 155% MF. Edit: forgot to add, after a week long break from the game, it seemed like every champ bag was giving me t6 mats and that’s about the time my lucky streak started.

It’s really interesting that I came in with one theory in this thread, but that another seems to be emerging.

You say you took a break for about a week? With no signing in? And that all of this happened after that? Or was just the T6 mat stuff after the break?

Sorry that your thread went off on a tangent! And yes, all of this stuff happened after that break. It’s hard to pinpoint or come up with any theory, because I switch between pve and wvw a lot. Loot definitely seems better, at least from the one exotic every two weeks or so I was getting before

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Posted by: Odyssey.2613

Odyssey.2613

The “taking a break for better loots” technique was present in GW1 for me as well. So it doesn’t take a giant leap of the imagination to assume they copy pasted large chunks of their old system into their new system.

The dev team has proven they can’t balance a 2×4 on a cinder block.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

Both games use “diminishing returns” to make it harder for bots (and to get us to explore a bit more). You can end DR easily by leaving the area you’ve been farming for hours or swapping toons. I know people who have 2-3 guardians, so that they can farm Cursed Shore without worrying about DR.

As far as swapping weapons or any other “superstitions” — it’s fine to believe in them, even though all the evidence suggests that the only thing that really matters in getting more loot is to kill more stuff more quickly, with as much Magic Find as you can afford.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: AlienMenace.7516

AlienMenace.7516

Sorry that your thread went off on a tangent! And yes, all of this stuff happened after that break. It’s hard to pinpoint or come up with any theory, because I switch between pve and wvw a lot. Loot definitely seems better, at least from the one exotic every two weeks or so I was getting before

No need to be sorry at all. This is all related to what I was discussing and I’m not the kind of person who goes into a situation with Theory A in my head and then gets disappointed that Theory B seems to be a possibility as well. Truth be told, we don’t have a lot of facts on how these systems work, but we never will have that data unless we start by asking questions. I find what everyone has said here to be both enlightening and helpful.

The “taking a break for better loots” technique was present in GW1 for me as well. So it doesn’t take a giant leap of the imagination to assume they copy pasted large chunks of their old system into their new system.

While I think it might be a bit of a disservice to GW2’s overhauled core engine to assume GW1 code even could be copy-pasted directly into GW2, I think it’s fair to say that if the same minds designed it, they may well have designed it using the same concepts, which would result in a similar outcome. If it’s something they believe is an important mechanic, they’d probably try to implement it whenever they can.

Both games use “diminishing returns” to make it harder for bots (and to get us to explore a bit more). You can end DR easily by leaving the area you’ve been farming for hours or swapping toons. I know people who have 2-3 guardians, so that they can farm Cursed Shore without worrying about DR.

As far as swapping weapons or any other “superstitions” — it’s fine to believe in them, even though all the evidence suggests that the only thing that really matters in getting more loot is to kill more stuff more quickly, with as much Magic Find as you can afford.

DR is the flipside of the last comment, and is also likely at play. We know about hitting immediate DR walls when we wind up doing the same thing or playing the same way a lot, but maybe there’s a more subtle, overarching DR that goes away with lots of inactivity. In that case, there would be no “boost,” only a return to normal. That would also mean a portion of us were under some amount of DR while playing, which might explain why so many people report being dissatisfied with their drops.

…and I’m just going to quote myself here:

I’m not avoiding pressing my weapon-swap key (~ by default) to get better loot, but I am worried that my character seems to think that Soldier’s set I keep in my bag is “new shinies” every time I equip it.

True, I still have no facts here, but I’m not avoiding weapon-swap by keybind, so much as armor-swap from inventory. It just makes me think the game thinks I’m looting new rare loot when my character makes one of these callouts:

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Item#Notes

That being said, I still agree with you completely that the best way to get more loot is simply to perform as many rolls for loot as possible. In this case, as you said: kill as many things as possible with as high Magic Find as possible.