Guild Wars 2

I just bought 75 Toxic Dye kits and received only one of the newly released dyes.

Extrapolating out, this means that the chances of getting a particular one of the new dyes is less than half of the chance of forging a precursor. With every other dye kit, I would have expected to receive about 10-17 of the new dyes out of 75.

…. But RNG is RNG right? maybe I was just unlucky….

The problem with this thinking is that the prices of the new dyes are 4x to 5x as other dyes (for example flame & frost) at this point in the demand cycle. While last time, dyes topped out at 10-15g while dyes were still gemstore purchasable, this time dyes are up to 40-70g. Prices of gemstore items do tend to measure gem prices more so than simply demand. If rarity was stealth nerfed by 4-5x, then my results were not unlucky, but typical.

Circumstantially, the limited evidence seems to suggest that the price of new dyes was stealth raised by a substantial amount without any notification saying so.

Buyer Beware.

The price could be higher because maybe less people are buying the dye packs. Personally I don’t buy any RNG items from the gem store (except a mini pack once in a while). Others have been getting burned by these RNG items and maybe that means less sales. Less sales means fewer dyes on the TP, which usually leads to higher prices.

Another possibility is that these colors are more highly desired than the flame and frost colors.

I don’t even bother with the dye kits lol.

Even if I got one, it’s just abysmally expensive to get multiples of the same dye over a single account. Look at the Charred dye, that’s going for almost 100 gold now.

Kinda lame how paid things are done with RNG. I can understand drop loots.

It always amazes me that people “invest” in RNG. When was the last time you heard a financial adviser suggest that you just buy more lottery tickets to increase your chance of winning (and increase your wealth). RNG items in the game fulfill the same function as lotteries in life. Sure, some people will win, and some will win big, but the odds are it won’t be you.

I bought 4 dye packs and got 5 of the new dyes, so, RNG is RNG, don’t buy them if you don’t support RNG. They wouldn’t sell them if nobody bought them.

Also, gold is worth alot less now than when the flame and frost dye packs were first released.

With so much more gold in-game, and in players’ pockets, they can afford to buy things at higher prices…thus, sellers are able to list for a higher price. I don’t think ArenaNet has anything to do with the player-controlled prices of items.

I bought one kit, got one dye….which I am saving to sell at a later time, when such dyes are unavailable from the gem store. Took a chance on a possible investment, and it paid off….for me.

Even before microtransactions in MMOs there were player-run casinos using in-game dice rolls. People just love to gamble. The more conservative among us may not understand, but there are still tons of people out there willing to try their luck.

Yeah, I highly disagree with RNG in the store, and really wish Anet would get rid of that aspect. Dyes are character bound, so people are going to need to buy dyes for each of their characters. But I guess there is enough people who do not mind gambling, because they certainly are not getting money from me on any RNG items.

Anecdotes are worthless, although my 75 unit sample is probably large enough to extrapolate. Look at the market prices.

These new dyes are trading at multiples compared to the release of the last new dyes only weeks ago, or the F&F rerelease about 2 months ago.

nekretaal.6485:

Anecdotes are worthless, although my 75 unit sample is probably large enough to extrapolate. Look at the market prices.

These new dyes are trading at multiples compared to the release of the last new dyes only weeks ago, or the F&F rerelease about 2 months ago.

I think the green dyes did bad because not many people wanted greens and most of the colors where very close in color. The f&f were on their second go around and most of those where bought either by people who did not get them the first time or investors after seeing how high the prices went the first time they were released.

You did have horrible rng with your kits but I am not sure if the tp is reflecting a new bad rng rate. My guess is that people are not buying the rng kits as often and are just getting the dyes straight off the tp- so there are less available and they cost more. Some of these newer colors are pretty nice as well so I think more people want them.

nekretaal.6485:

I just bought 75 Toxic Dye kits and received only one of the newly released dyes.

Extrapolating out, this means that the chances of getting a particular one of the new dyes is less than half of the chance of forging a precursor.

So, you have evidence showing that the odds of forging a precursor are 1 in 37 or better?

You actually BOUGHT 75 toxic dye kits? Sorry, but if you are that foolhardy, you deserve the narrowest RNG range possible.

You should be guaranteed a special dye for buying the pack, I originally thought it was just random which special dye you got. Well.. I won’t be buying any more, I’ll just save up to buy them off the TP if I want one.

“You actually BOUGHT 75 toxic dye kits? Sorry, but if you are that foolhardy, you deserve the narrowest RNG range possible.”

Why? Why should this person be more punished than anyone else? I agree that buying that much RNG is silly but I’ve done it for silly fusion tickets. I learned my lesson on the matter.

On the topic at hand. I love the color green. Clearly I am in the minority in this as the green dyes weren’t are popular. (lucky me – sort of)

Blues, and Purples are a lot more popular colors wise and so the prices are way higher on the TP. I don’t think it’s less people buying them, although that would be nice.

As of yesterday afternoon there was an average of 30 dyes of each of the new colors with the exception of Limenotte (sp?) which had about 78 (seems the most common or least desired). We know the drop rate is bad this mean a lot of pack are being opened for these to get posted.

unfortunately for those of us who dislike this system Anet is making what appears to be lots of profit.

I still propose that if they want to keep the RNG nature of these dyes make in 1 of the 6 not 1 of 25 with 19 terrible fillers no one wants.

Someone else suggest that these special dyes only be account wide which would be amazing. We probably won’t see that though.

nekretaal.6485:

I just bought 75 Toxic Dye kits and received only one of the newly released dyes.

Extrapolating out, this means that the chances of getting a particular one of the new dyes is less than half of the chance of forging a precursor. With every other dye kit, I would have expected to receive about 10-17 of the new dyes out of 75.

…. But RNG is RNG right? maybe I was just unlucky….

The problem with this thinking is that the prices of the new dyes are 4x to 5x as other dyes (for example flame & frost) at this point in the demand cycle. While last time, dyes topped out at 10-15g while dyes were still gemstore purchasable, this time dyes are up to 40-70g. Prices of gemstore items do tend to measure gem prices more so than simply demand. If rarity was stealth nerfed by 4-5x, then my results were not unlucky, but typical.

Circumstantially, the limited evidence seems to suggest that the price of new dyes was stealth raised by a substantial amount without any notification saying so.

Buyer Beware.

That’s how enablers(the game designers) to gambling get the suckers in the flow of things, before we know it there are going to be online gaming gamblers anonymous clinics popping up because of companies like this and just like gambling establishments there is not one iota of concern beyond making the next sucker spin that wheel so they can make that almighty dollar.

I guess I shouldn’t mention I bought two dye kits and got two of the new dyes. Dye kits are really the only area I see decent RNG. Lord knows the toilet has been unmerciful to me. Both in-game and out…

I think that topic wasn’t made for other people to decide if buying dye kits from the gem store is a smart or foolish idea. I might be wrong….

I’m all the way on the other spectrum. I have RNG bad luck, so I never even open random dyes I get as drops in game, and I would not try to buy kits of the BL gem store, because I’d end up like the OP. I quickly determined the best thing is to sell all random dyes (at 23s each I’m sure I’ve made A LOT of gold doing that), and then buy the exact color I want. Seemed cheaper in the long run. If I ever decide to make a legendary I will not try the RNG show at the MF either – I will grind gold to buy a precursor as that seems more satisfying.

I am sorry about your luck, OP. I think this happens in the same way with precursors. I talked to a person this morning that had 2 dropped, while I have about 1000 hrs in and have seen zip. Ergo, one person buys 3 dye packs and gets 2 rare dyes while you open 75 and get 1. That stinks when you’re the one with bad luck.

Don’t gamble with real money or gold in the gem store. If you want keys do the 25 minute key farm. If you want one of the new dyes your better off buying it on the TP. Same goes for the minis.

From my experience anything on the gem store that says “chance” in the description = don’t buy. I really like this game but the word “chance” is really vague and I wish they would post the odds when they mention “chance”. Even when I go to Vegas I know what the odds are. That is why when I go there I don’t gamble.

These dyes are more expensive than previous sets because their colors are more desirable, as others have indicated. Even a set of 75 is way too small to tell us anything conclusively. However, this is TERRIBLE luck and I do feel bad for you.