Getting the precursor
So I thought that if I want a shot at that precursor I need more chances of getting anything, meaning more attempts on same day, meaning more daggers. I figured 50 attempts should be ok for a fair chance of getting it
Something that a lot of people don’t realize is that there is no magic number when dealing with a random event.
If you have a 1% chance of getting a precursor (I don’t know what the actual chance is, this is just for example), then the average is 1 precursor per 100 attempts. But the thing is, there’s no one counting attempts and saying “oh, he’s tried 99 times that means he gets it next time.” You might get it the first time, or make 200 trips to the forge for nothing.
You have a 1% chance the first time you make the attempt, a 1% chance the tenth attempt, and a 1% chance the 100th attempt. Each attempt is a “fresh” event and is not influenced by the previous attempts.
Making 50 attempts in one day does not increase your chances any more than making one attempt per day for 50 days. It just means if you get lucky then you get lucky now instead of maybe getting lucky six weeks from now.
Yeah but when you do 50 attempts in a row technically you have a higher chance of getting the precursor. When I say higher chance I don’t mean the chance itself in getting it, but you have more chances at it.
I did not (and do not) flush any dosh down the mystic toilet. Opted to buy my Dawn relatively cheap a few months ago.
However, when I get 4x 210 tokens I buy random offhands and flush them down. Pearl comes out.
This is exactly what I dislike about the forge—Random, no skill—AND after all the untold riches Zomorras gets from the forge, his lady “friends” still have the hide to ask for donations to help the city of Lion’s Arch rebuild!!! What a travesty!!!! It’s disgusting! I feel sick to my stomach.
Anyone see that youtube video of some dude putting 1500 rare greatswords into the forge? O.M.G. Nearly slit my wrists just watching.
Yeah but when you do 50 attempts in a row technically you have a higher chance of getting the precursor. When I say higher chance I don’t mean the chance itself in getting it, but you have more chances at it.
That’s my point. You think you have a higher chance, but what you are doing is making more attempts at exactly the same chance.
Yeah but when you do 50 attempts in a row technically you have a higher chance of getting the precursor.
No you don’t, the forge has no memory.
actually it doesn’t mean 1 out of 100 attempts if there is a 1% chance. It means that when you put those daggers into the Mystic toilet, it creates a table of 100 spots, with 1 spot being the Precursor, and then a roll happens and if that roll happens to be the same number where the precursor is, then you get it. When you try again, that table gets clearned, rebuilt with the precursor being placed somewhere else on that table, and the roll happens again.
This is why someone can go through 1000 attempts and never see it.
actually it doesn’t mean 1 out of 100 attempts if there is a 1% chance. It means that when you put those daggers into the Mystic toilet, it creates a table of 100 spots, with 1 spot being the Precursor, and then a roll happens and if that roll happens to be the same number where the precursor is, then you get it. When you try again, that table gets clearned, rebuilt with the precursor being placed somewhere else on that table, and the roll happens again.
This is why someone can go through 1000 attempts and never see it.
Whatever the actual mechanic is, that’s what I said. Each attempt is a unique event that is not affected by previous attempts.
You could flip a coin ten times and see it come up heads every time. It’s a very small chance, but statistically it is possible. But if someone were to see you do it he would most likely accuse you of cheating because the way a typical person thinks, a coin SHOULD NOT come up heads every time you flip it unless you are cheating somehow.
But the coin doesn’t care.
(edited by tolunart.2095)
Rebuilding a loot table is tedious unnecessary work, it is vastly preferable to maintain a constant table of possible results instead.
This is why RNG blows, when it’s the only way to get a Legendary. So they solved that for us: spend money buying gold at the gem store!
Bah
This is why RNG blows, when it’s the only way to get a Legendary. So they solved that for us: spend money buying gold at the gem store!
Bah
The alternative: make it easier to obtain a legendary weapon. Everyone who wants one grinds until they get it, or two or three… and in a month the complaints start…
“It doesn’t feel Legendary when there’s six other guys standing around with the same GS on their backs…”
“There’s nothing to do now, gimme more stuff…”
“I bought ten Dusks from the TP and overnight the price drops, I lost 2000 gold…”
etc.
If you gotta have it now, get out the credit card. Otherwise, prepare yourself for a long term activity and watch for the market to crash.
The alternative: make it easier to obtain a legendary weapon. Everyone who wants one grinds until they get it, or two or three… and in a month the complaints start…
Are you implying farming the dosh for a manipulated precursor is hard? ‘cause it isn’t, it’s just tedious.
The alternative: make it easier to obtain a legendary weapon. Everyone who wants one grinds until they get it, or two or three… and in a month the complaints start…
Are you implying farming the dosh for a manipulated precursor is hard? ‘cause it isn’t, it’s just tedious.
No, I have seen a constant stream of posts going back months saying nothing more than “GIMME MY SHINY NOW!” Such are the consequences of Anet giving in.
This thread gave the me courage to gamble all my T5 materials.
I don’t want a legendary but I’d take the gold if I get one.
Mystic Toilet, here I go!
(Watch me come here 30 min later filled with regret)
So I just dropped 96 Rare Greatswords which should be about… 30g~35g?
Got 5 Exotics worth squats (2~3g).
Mystic Toilet is still a Toilet.
So I thought that if I want a shot at that precursor I need more chances of getting anything, meaning more attempts on same day, meaning more daggers. I figured 50 attempts should be ok for a fair chance of getting it
Something that a lot of people don’t realize is that there is no magic number when dealing with a random event.
If you have a 1% chance of getting a precursor (I don’t know what the actual chance is, this is just for example), then the average is 1 precursor per 100 attempts. But the thing is, there’s no one counting attempts and saying “oh, he’s tried 99 times that means he gets it next time.” You might get it the first time, or make 200 trips to the forge for nothing.
You have a 1% chance the first time you make the attempt, a 1% chance the tenth attempt, and a 1% chance the 100th attempt. Each attempt is a “fresh” event and is not influenced by the previous attempts.
Making 50 attempts in one day does not increase your chances any more than making one attempt per day for 50 days. It just means if you get lucky then you get lucky now instead of maybe getting lucky six weeks from now.
Exactly. It’s why financial advisors don’t recommend that you just buy more lottery tickets to increase your wealth. When the odds are fixed, each time you play you face the same odds. And, consequently, there will be players who get a precursor on the first try and there will be players who never get a precursor. Most will fall somewhere in between. At 1500 hours logged I got my first precursor as a drop from a random mob. Sadly it was Venom, an aquatic weapon. And, conceivably, you might well get the precursor you want in 10,000 hours or so by drop.
And this is why Anet is exploring alternate ideas around getting the precursor. Humans just aren’t wired for RNG. Our tendency is to create order and exclude ambiguity, defying all odds. It never feels quite right to be at the mercy of chance. Even the old capricious gods fell to heroic sword of order and predictability. Hopefully the game will move in the direction of reward for play in all it’s various systems.
The alternative: make it easier to obtain a legendary weapon. Everyone who wants one grinds until they get it, or two or three… and in a month the complaints start…
I didn’t say make it easier. I said take the RNG out of it.