Guild Wars 2

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There is indeed a spike there, but it’s a spike in the drop, compared to where GW2 was coming from. My comment at Vayne was based on his statement that GW2 took a long time to drop. The spike you talk about does not help to prevent the drop.

Hope that explains what I am trying to say.

Then about that spike. First be aware that Q4’s tent to have higher numbers. Nonetheless there clearly is a spike. The content did obviously help. I am also not saying that content patches don’t help. But they don’t seem to be able to keep GW2 at a stable result over a longer period. At least not at the result where you want it to be. Maybe it manages to get it stable round the 15000 (KRW Mn) but in my opinion that is not where you want a game like GW2 to be. It’s like phys said. GW2 should be on another level.
The Q2 spike was right after the announcement of the Expansion. So people anticipating on the expansion and so coming back to the game is likely a reason for that spike. I also mentioned that in the OP. Simply knowing there will be an expansion seems to result in more income then season 2 manage to get.

Devata.6589:

Simply knowing there will be an expansion seems to result in more income then season 2 manage to get.

That’s also because Season 2 was weak. Maybe it would’ve been much better if they used an expansion system but all I’m saying is that if their releases were able to reach expansion-like quality/quantity we wouldn’t be having this discussion because GW2 would’ve been much higher, at least in my opinion.

If you take a look at the content we got after LS1 finished you can see the real problem.

After LS1, before LS2:
From April 2014 to June 2014 we got no new content at all! 3 months of no new content, we got a Feature pack but no actual content to play.

LS2:
From July 2014 to January 2015 we got 2 maps and some Living World story (LS2)… 7 months with 2 maps which were mostly used for farming.

Content drought:
From February 2015 to October 2015 we got nothing.

Basically from March 2014 that Scarlet was defeated to October 2015, one and a half year, we got 2 farm maps and some not-repeatable LS2 story and some festivals that were basically the same old. I don’t think it’s fair to say that the gem store model was the major issue for the revenue drop. It was the lack of content that caused the drop.

That’s 1 year and 6 months of 2 zones… no fractal, no dungeon, even the WvW tournament we got lasted for half the duration. The 2014 Fall tournament lasted 1 month, the previous ones lasted 2 months.

Compare all the above to LS3 so far. Since LS3 started we got:
3 zones which are arguably bigger, filled with more events and things to do than Dry Top and Silverwastes, we also got 2 fractals, one good (Chaos) and one awesome (Nightmare), 2 new PVP maps and all that in 5 months.

In 5 months of LS3 we got MORE content than 18 months before HoT! Can they keep it up? We’ll see. But if they do I expect their revenue to go up. Now if they keep it up and at the same time announce an expansion and release it without a content drought then even better!

tl;dr The reason there was a massive drop in revenue was the lack of content, not the gem store or that they didn’t follow the expansion model.

maddoctor.2738:

Devata.6589:

Simply knowing there will be an expansion seems to result in more income then season 2 manage to get.

That’s also because Season 2 was weak. Maybe it would’ve been much better if they used an expansion system but all I’m saying is that if their releases were able to reach expansion-like quality/quantity we wouldn’t be having this discussion because GW2 would’ve been much higher, at least in my opinion.

If you take a look at the content we got after LS1 finished you can see the real problem.

After LS1, before LS2:
From April 2014 to June 2014 we got no new content at all! 3 months of no new content, we got a Feature pack but no actual content to play.

LS2:
From July 2014 to January 2015 we got 2 maps and some Living World story (LS2)… 7 months with 2 maps which were mostly used for farming.

Content drought:
From February 2015 to October 2015 we got nothing.

Basically from March 2014 that Scarlet was defeated to October 2015, one and a half year, we got 2 farm maps and some not-repeatable LS2 story and some festivals that were basically the same old. I don’t think it’s fair to say that the gem store model was the major issue for the revenue drop. It was the lack of content that caused the drop.

That’s 1 year and 6 months of 2 zones… no fractal, no dungeon, even the WvW tournament we got lasted for half the duration. The 2014 Fall tournament lasted 1 month, the previous ones lasted 2 months.

Compare all the above to LS3 so far. Since LS3 started we got:
3 zones which are arguably bigger, filled with more events and things to do than Dry Top and Silverwastes, we also got 2 fractals, one good (Chaos) and one awesome (Nightmare), 2 new PVP maps and all that in 5 months.

In 5 months of LS3 we got MORE content than 18 months before HoT! Can they keep it up? We’ll see. But if they do I expect their revenue to go up. Now if they keep it up and at the same time announce an expansion and release it without a content drought then even better!

tl;dr The reason there was a massive drop in revenue was the lack of content, not the gem store or that they didn’t follow the expansion model.

Back when Season 2 was released people where praising it. I clearly remember that. It wasn’t until after that season that they started to complain about it. Who is not to say the same will happen with season 3?
Also many people where praising the content releases for at least the first two years. Something you are now pointing out as being negative (well after Season 1).

Personally I liked the fact that season 2 was not temporary content like season one, but other than that I preferred Season one. I did not like the PS setup of season 2.

You talk about Dry Top and Silverwaste as being farm maps, that is something I do relate to the mentality that this game did grow into and that I do blame on the cash-shop focus. Getting anything did mean grinding and so any new content was being explored as possible grind-opportunity. Those maps turned out to be good for that so people used it for that. At the same time imho they were burning themselves out.
Both theories could be true obviously. The numbers will not be able to proof any of those.
Personally I do not think that even if content would now get better, it will help a lot. Like I have said many times before (unrelated to the cash-shop). In my opinion your first expansion (and the half year after it) is the last opportunity to make things right. But people who left now are not likely to come back for a second expansion and as they will not come back they will also not see if the game has been improved even if it did.

Perhaps if one looked at what was on offer in the Gem Store during the spikes (especially those during little content release periods), one might find more information about revenue.

Good luck.

Devata.6589:

Back when Season 2 was released people where praising it. I clearly remember that. It wasn’t until after that season that they started to complain about it. Who is not to say the same will happen with season 3?

There is a big difference between LS2 and LS3. There were no fractals/dungeons in LS2 but we already got 2 in LS3. There were no PVP maps in LS2, we already got 2 in LS3. Sure lots of people liked LS2 for what it gave, I personally liked LS2 for what it was, non-temporary content and it had new zones instead of revamps of old zones. I liked LS2 and many others also did. I think LS3 is a great step forward.

Personally I do not think that even if content would now get better, it will help a lot.

I disagree. LS3 has the potential of becoming expansion-like which should’ve been the answer to the expansion model in the first place. Release in the LS all content that you usually get in expansions is what they promised… I think the big failure was the change to the expansion model. They wanted to release an expansion and diverted all their resources to it, meaning the game got no updates for a very long time. If they released Heart of Thorns through an LS system, piece by piece, we might’ve had a much better experience, but we’ll never know now.

In my opinion your first expansion (and the half year after it) is the last opportunity to make things right.

Half year after the expansion we got only Raids so not enough content to make things right. I’m hopeful that with the current direction of LS3 they can turn this around and revenue starts climbing. Will they succeed? My personal magic crystal ball says yes. Others might have a different view.

maddoctor.2738:

I disagree. LS3 has the potential of becoming expansion-like which should’ve been the answer to the expansion model in the first place. Release in the LS all content that you usually get in expansions is what they promised… I think the big failure was the change to the expansion model. They wanted to release an expansion and diverted all their resources to it, meaning the game got no updates for a very long time. If they released Heart of Thorns through an LS system, piece by piece, we might’ve had a much better experience, but we’ll never know now.

There are a few problems with this theory.

First of all, if nobody is here to see it, it is not going to be popular, and imo it will be very hard to get people back to see it. They have been disappointed twice before.

Second, you got the ‘failure because of move to expansions’ the other way around. Anet did never want to go for the expansions. But their living story approach did fail them. Numbers did keep going down. They where forced to move to the expansion.

Lastly, the problem with the LS approach is that you have to pay the game with the gem-store. What requires a focus on it, what in turn results in the many grind we did see (And what I till this day blame as the reason for the decline in the first place). That is why I have been in favor of an expansion model vs the cash-shop (LS) model. My complains about that model where here long before it financially was a problem.

Many people now may look at the last two quarters but seem to forget that the problem of sales dropping has been here for a long time. The company also did see that problem and it’s likely the reason why they did go for an expansion.

maddoctor.2738:

Half year after the expansion we got only Raids so not enough content to make things right. I’m hopeful that with the current direction of LS3 they can turn this around and revenue starts climbing. Will they succeed? My personal magic crystal ball says yes. Others might have a different view.

The last quarter should have shown that already. LS3 started on 26th of July, so Q3 have 2 full months of LS3 but numbers are lower then Q2. Q4 will possibly be a little better because it’s Q4, also an official announcement of the second expansion might help a little. But I am afraid that at this point it will be close to impossible to turn the tide.

Like I said in my OP, the only way I could see that happen, is if Anet manage to market the second expansion as GW3, but then it will also need some huge game-changers.

I understand that many people who read my comments here, or have been reading the comment during the 3 years I was most active here might think I am very negative or dislike the game.

That is not really the thing. Sure I dislike things about the game, but I do think the core is great and I did think the game had huge potential. But what everybody should also understand is that I was active in these forums trying to prevent the game from going down, or at least did what I could, knowing that would not be a lot.

I did not succeed in that, and in many ways this is my closing thread about this subject. I might (or might not) be on the forums in the future, talking about any subject (patch, bug, api) or talking about the next expansions (and it’s results). But you will not see me talking about this subject of the cash-shop (that I have been repeating for over 3 years) a lot more. Simply because I my opinion it’s to late for that now.

This thread really is a look back at the last years. Maybe it can be beneficial to anybody, maybe not. Who knows. However, if I disliked the game so much I would not have taken the time to work out that sheet and come back now.

I will take the game for what it is.. now. A game in the scope of GW1. What is imho a shame as it could have been much more.

You do realise the drop off after season 1 was because of the debacle over servers crashing and kicking over 1/4 of the community on a live one time event that was handled badly by ANet and ended up with a lot of very kittened off players, some of who are only returning to the game now, don’t you? If that had been handled better, it is much more likely that the player base would still be quite high. As for content, there is plenty to keep people interested in the current market, but you will always get drop off.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Vayne.8563:

I’m almost 100% certain Guild Wars 1 had a rapid fall of as well four years after lauch, because, get this, it was a four year old game.

Four years after GW launch? Yeah, in all likelihood the game made very little, but not just because it was old. At that point, ANet was 1.5 years past the release of Eye of the North, which was 1.5 years after they stopped development on the game. GW was on life support.

Guild Wars Beyond did come out with several chapters after that, though. We’re only a year off the last expansion, which wasn’t as well received as expected, and the next expansion hasn’t come out yet.

But as I said, this data is pointless data,. because it’s comparing a 10 year old non-MMO with a new MMO with a completely different set of sensibilities.

Suppose for argument sake that Guild Wars 1 had 20 free competitors. Not buy to play, but free to play? Do you really think it would have had the same sales anyway?

Pointless comparison is pointless. It proves nothing. Literally nothing. It suggests that ten years ago, there was less competition for the gaming dollar.

Guild Wars 2 gets 12.9M € (-48%, which the studio explains by the economic model buy-to-play MMO and the absence of paid extension but ensures that the figure will go up with new updates)

but

NCsoft publishes growing quarterly accounts (up 37%), but still thanks to its historical MMOs. But analysts question the ability of the group to renew itself.

http://www.jeuxonline.info/actualite/51099/nouveau-trimestre-croissance-ncsoft-attendant-avenir

maddoctor.2738:

tl;dr The reason there was a massive drop in revenue was the lack of content, not the gem store or that they didn’t follow the expansion model.

100% agree. The long content drought really hurt this game in the long run. I left for a time, too. I would not have come back at all, but I have an unusual and ‘special’ connection with this game – I actually met my wife here!

I can only hope that the recent influx of content (and perhaps another expansion?) is sustainable. Otherwise, people will loose interest yet again. GW2 might be able to come back from a bad year, but two? According to the analysis presented in this thread, ANET really needs to continue their current course of content updates for the foreseeable future.

I don’t think it’s possible to come to any reasonable conclusions or even speculation with such shallow access to information. You could speculate all you want about why there were drops in revenue. Not even Anet knows, unless players tell them. Even then, self-reporting is not too reliable.

I think HoT was a divergent direction from the original, but other than that, there isn’t much else to say it’s why something happens to revenues.

Frankly, I think they should make us pay for LS … I don’t see a problem with that. I can’t actually believe they can make this model work with all the free content we get. If anything, that’s an impressive feature they should promote.

Feersum Endjinn.4179:

You do realise the drop off after season 1 was because of the debacle over servers crashing and kicking over 1/4 of the community on a live one time event that was handled badly by ANet and ended up with a lot of very kittened off players, some of who are only returning to the game now, don’t you? If that had been handled better, it is much more likely that the player base would still be quite high. As for content, there is plenty to keep people interested in the current market, but you will always get drop off.

The Karka invasion you mean? That was one of the best things ever in Guild Wars 2. It was amazing. But it indeed had it flaws. People getting kicked off and the fact that it was on one specific moment meaning multiple people could not be there for that event.

There would be a few good solutions for it. For example, having it take place multiple times. Not so much as leaving it go on for multiple days (like the ending of S1) but for example having it take place on 3 occasions and if you had not done it before you could then join on one of the other moments. Also make the real playable content and rewards part of the aftermath that stays in the game, not part of the one-time event, that should just be a story basically. Also simply having more of those events and recording them to watch back. Then it would not be that big of a problem if you missed a few. And of course they should solve the server problem. Instead, for season 2 we got more a personal story approach. Not a very fun solution imho.

So that event was not bad, it was really cool how we shaped the world (remember us cutting those trees?), but it had some flaws and the solution resulted in something that could in no way match with that event.

Bad solutions for problems is a trend we have also seen in GW2 a lot.

Anyway, I wonder how you come to the conclusion that that was the reason for people to leave. I don’t remember any of our guild-members leaving for that reason. The results sadly don’t help us here because it was still part of the first 2 quarters that was the initial peak because people where still buying the game at that time. Nonetheless, the quarter after it was still only outdone at a later time by the release of HoT. So I think the claim that that one event was the big problem for GW2 is not very strong.

Vayne.8563:

IndigoSundown.5419:

Vayne.8563:

I’m almost 100% certain Guild Wars 1 had a rapid fall of as well four years after lauch, because, get this, it was a four year old game.

Four years after GW launch? Yeah, in all likelihood the game made very little, but not just because it was old. At that point, ANet was 1.5 years past the release of Eye of the North, which was 1.5 years after they stopped development on the game. GW was on life support.

Guild Wars Beyond did come out with several chapters after that, though. We’re only a year off the last expansion, which wasn’t as well received as expected, and the next expansion hasn’t come out yet.

But as I said, this data is pointless data,. because it’s comparing a 10 year old non-MMO with a new MMO with a completely different set of sensibilities.

Suppose for argument sake that Guild Wars 1 had 20 free competitors. Not buy to play, but free to play? Do you really think it would have had the same sales anyway?

Pointless comparison is pointless. It proves nothing. Literally nothing. It suggests that ten years ago, there was less competition for the gaming dollar.

“Guild Wars Beyond did come out with several chapters after that, though. We’re only a year off the last expansion, which wasn’t as well received as expected, and the next expansion hasn’t come out yet.”
Yeah that was released more as two years after the real last big patch. It was also a story to set up for GW2. Simply because of that patch, you can’t suggest that GW1 was basically still a fully supported game for all that time. For many people (including Anet) GW1 was basically end of life as after Q1 2008 and then slowly people start leaving. That is likely also a reason why Guild Wars Beyond was not very popular. Many people had left, waiting for GW2. They could not be bothered going back 2 years later for a few more storylines.

You can dismiss the data as much as you want. You have pretty been dismissing most negative data, logic and common sense in every discussion on these forums since the beginning. Usually with an argument like “Anet has better information” and “You don’t know for sure how it would have been if things where different”. That is of course always true, and the numbers obviously are not perfect. GW1 was not a true MMO, while many people did see it as an MMO-like game. And yes, things do change over time. Nonetheless, it’s the best data we have and it does say something. Data to make predictions or to show alternative realities are never 100% accurate but are use on a daily basis to make business decisions, predict the weather and much more. Again, yes it’s not perfect but it’s still useful, it tells us something.

At least I did my best to come with as objective possible data as I could.

One thing that however is a fact, is that last quarter was the worse quarter for GW2 while we did get Season 3. The quarter before was the worst quarter until then and many people suggested it would likely get better the next quarter because of season 3 and that it was just one quarter.
I could not find the post on this forum that I did read back then but here is a reddit post about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/4x5b9s/ncsoft_2nd_quarter_2016_revenues/

I guess that defending most decision Anet made, and ignoring logic, data and common sense did not help this game a lot.

I fear for Q1 (not so much for Q4 as Q4’s tent to be on average higher) if there is no news about a new expansion by then. And even if there is a new expansion, if people don’t see it as GW3 I expect it to be so sell less as HoT. But at least it should help for a little bump.

carabidus.6214:

maddoctor.2738:

tl;dr The reason there was a massive drop in revenue was the lack of content, not the gem store or that they didn’t follow the expansion model.

100% agree. The long content drought really hurt this game in the long run. I left for a time, too. I would not have come back at all, but I have an unusual and ‘special’ connection with this game – I actually met my wife here!

I can only hope that the recent influx of content (and perhaps another expansion?) is sustainable. Otherwise, people will loose interest yet again. GW2 might be able to come back from a bad year, but two? According to the analysis presented in this thread, ANET really needs to continue their current course of content updates for the foreseeable future.

The results don’t support this. Season 3 had been running for 2 of the 3 months of Q3, however Q3 had lower results as Q2. Also Season 2 had lower results then the half year after it, while that half year there was an almost complete content drought. The reason it likely did get up is because of the announcement of HoT.

Sure it’s better to have stuff to do in the game (Other then just grinding) and content patches do help with that, but it’s not the only / complete solution.

People need to be busy (that can also be with things like quests and running dungeons, does not have to be something like a season release), they have to like what they are doing and must be exited for what is to come.

If you make good content and have an expansion every year – 1,5 year with maybe one bigger batch in-between the expansions and a minor story (small patches like the beginning of season 1) working towards that expansion then imho you have a pretty healthy and over the longer term sustainable player-base.

Now if you make grindy content partly because you try to get people to buy Ingamar stuff (and so get people boring), some patches once in a while that some people like and other don’t, and an expansion every few years then you slowly see people leave.

Problem then is that even if S3 or Expansion 2 is good, people are not playing, so they don’t see it. People will come back once or so, that is why HoT was so very important. But most of the people who where disappointed with HoT or the first half year after is (basically, most people who left by now) will not come back for S3 or even the second expansion. In that manner it sadly just is to late.

Obtena.7952:

Frankly, I think they should make us pay for LS … I don’t see a problem with that. I can’t actually believe they can make this model work with all the free content we get. If anything, that’s an impressive feature they should promote.

People seem to not bother even if it’s free. Sure they could earn more money with selling from from those who are but you are creating a extra barrier.

With an expansion it works different, people are more excited, they also expect and (usually) get more for it. There tends to be more for everybody. That might also be part of the reason you now see that multiple game companies sell there DLC bundled together (season pass) so you can still sort of buy it like an expansion (for FPS’s where it’s mainly new maps that can work, for an MMO not so much imho because people expect a wider range of content).

Selling seasons as DLC creates a new barrier for something people are less interested in, but still it will feel like they are missing parts of the game by not buying it. So that does not feel good. I think it might create a bigger reason to not play for anybody other then those who really like these season patches. So ArenaNet would be able to make more money on most of you guys (those still playing) but having an even harder time getting and holding other / new / old players.

Also don’t forget that the seasons are for a big part about story telling. Sure there is now a new map every part but still it’s for a big part about the story. That is great for the WoodenPatatoe’s under us (the lore and story people) but there are many who don’t care as much about that, probably most.

So I don’t think that selling that as DLC is a good idea. If anything it should be the ‘bigger free patch’ in-between expansions. The way they now also seem to use it. Problem is that people already got bored by the game (I still blame the grind) before the season was released.

@Devata

No Devata, you’ve been the one using flawed logic.

The stuff you’re saying you’ve been saying for years. You had to wait four years before you could even post that oh look, I’m right. Sales are down. You draw the conclusion they’re down because of the gem store or because of the way Anet didn’t make a buy to play game in the exact image you said would work. There’s no evidence, not one shred of it, that your way would have provided greater sales even now, but there’s more.

You went in looking for the flaw. Looking for it. If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Let me ask you the simplest question.

How do you know the content drought isn’t responsible for lost sales. How do you know the dungeon decision isn’t responsible for lower income? How do you know that the difficulty change between HOT and the core game aren’t the issue?

All you can state is that sales have dropped. That’s it. You can’t offer any real evidence of why they’ve dropped.

The fact is, the cash shop and the system in place has been around since launch and you’ve had to wait four years to “prove your point”.

That’s not how logic works. Logic works by taking facts and they figuring out how those facts came to be. It is absolutely a fact that Guild Wars 2 has had it’s lowest quarter profits since launch. You don’t have to prove that, because that’s right.

But there have been many many complaints on these forums about a multitude of issues, including balance issues, the game becoming more grindy and less casual, the price of the expansion for the amount of content offered, the perception that casuals have been left behind, the way dungeons had been nerfed, there are so many ways to explain a loss of income (which probably coincides with two things, loss of a player base combined with veterans finding ways to farm that allow them to buy gems with gold instead of cash).

There’s no way you can actually draw the conclusions you draw, unless you’d already made up your mind that was the reason in the first place.

If you were right, you wouldn’t have had to wait four years to make your post.

Let me take a crack at it.

First none of us have any sense of the current break down of source of reported income (NOT PROFIT) for GW2. What percentage are game account keys Vs Gem Sales? Has it gone up or down since the game shipped relative to the number of active players? What percentage of active players buy gems in a month? What is the average amount purchased by those players? Has those amounts gone up or down? All of that is important as it determines the direction development goes. If active population is dropping, there would be a push to make the game more compelling to try and sell more licenses. If the cash spent per player in the Gem Shop is dropping, need more desirable items in the Gem Shop. Etc.

There is extremely limited data we can derive from the quarterly numbers (which don’t include China BTW) which are sales (again NOT PROFITS). Q4s tend to be higher as GW2 is a NA + EU game and that quarter encompasses the holiday season. The initial quarters when the game and the expansion came out are higher than the later quarters, as the bulk of game account sales are made during those times. And that’s about it. Everything this point on are tea leaves and entrails.

2Q14 till 3Q15, an 18 month period that includes the time after LWS1, includes LWS2 and the “content drought” that led up to the quarter HoT was released was actually fairly flat. Hype might have kept players playing through 1Q15 to 3Q15 "drought. Note that pre-purchase aren’t counted in the quarter that they are made but the quarter the game is shipped.

HoT sales weren’t out of this world. The ploy of providing a P4F version of the base game hoping for a game license sale didn’t pan out as well as they expected, as stated in a investor conference call. The lack of a less expensive expansion when they decided to bundle in the original game left a bad taste in players mouths. Even after tossing in the free character slot on pre-purchases by existing players only blunted the complaint, not eliminate. Those who sat on the fence until the game shipped weren’t encouraged by the laundry list of complaints of all the “gotchas” that came hand in hand with the hyped features. Guild Halls were expensive to build. Scribing was super expensive to level. Crafting precursors were expensive and time consuming. Elite Specializations required you to clear a fair chunk of HPs on the HoT maps. The four maps weren’t all that large, even when you take the multiple levels into account. Mastery system slowed your progress through the maps and story, etc. Some of these were fixed quickly. Some took until the Spring Update in 2Q16 to fix but by then many who hadn’t bought the expansion simply wrote off the game to pursue “newer” free MMOs. That’s my take on why we dropped from roughly $20 million a quarter before HoT to $15 million a quarter after the expansion.

(continues)

But let me look at something a little different than just GW2 sales.

Below I’ve included three charts. The first shows game income by region, as NCSOFT breaks them into. Note that after 1Q2014 they combined NA and EU sales which I think was do to the restructuring that created the NC West Holding company as well as NCSOFT licencing off day to day operation and localization of AION and Lineage 2 in Europe, shifting any income from those games to royalties than income to an NCSOFT subsidiary.

Notable dates on the region chart. AION came out in South Korea 4Q08 which is that surge. AION came out everywhere else 3Q09 which is the surge in NA+EU. Also as you can see before GW2, NA+EU wasn’t a strong region but after it became their 2nd largest region. The income bump 2Q14 in NA+EU was Wildstar being released, the bump in 1Q16 was partially due to HoT but primarily due to Blade &Soul being released in region.

This is illustrated in the 2nd and 3rd charts. Since reported GW2 income as well as Wildstar is limited to the NA+EU region, if you factor them out you can see how NCSOFT’s remaining games are doing in the region, which was roughly between $2.5-5 million a quarter until Blade & Soul was released. But, with very limited data, next quarter will tell, it looks as if B&S will follow AION’s boom-bust pattern in NA+EU. The last chart shows a percentage breakdown of income source from the region.

My point here is that in the big picture, NA+EU are very relevant in NCSOFT’s income and GW2 makes up the bulk of that. NCSOFT has had very limited success here until GW2. And if B&S burns out as I expect it to, GW2 will still be the cornerstone of it’s income from NA+EU. I don’t think they will interfere with their one very successful NA studio and game.

I fully expect 4Q16 to see GW2 to be once again above 70% of the source of NA+EU region’s income, bolstered by the game license sale, a returning population and B&S income continue to fall.

That’s my 2 copper.

1/2

@Devata

No Devata, you’ve been the one using flawed logic.

Where?

Vayne.8563:

The stuff you’re saying you’ve been saying for years. You had to wait four years before you could even post that oh look, I’m right. Sales are down.

That is the thing with long-term. It takes a long time to take effect. In all those years I talked about the long term. I always said, this is bad for the long term. I made it a little more specific when they announced HoT, then I said HoT should be good (in my opinion that means less grind yes) or people would leave during the first half year after that. And that would be bad because I also believe people would not come back if they god disappointed after the first expansion.

And I do think HoT came just in time (well, the announcement) else in my opinion things would have goon down sooner.

Have a look here: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-A-Soultion-For-All/first#post2243092 a from of me from a few years ago (Can’t see the post, but it’s one of my earlier post). I then already clearly talk about the long-term.

“So unless you are only focusing on making some fast money on the short run (that is mostly not what MMO’s are about, they are supposed to make money over a longer period) it is just bad management.” I think I even mentioned in a few post that the longer period I talked about was > 3 years or something.

And here is one of my last post (to you!) before this thread, almost a year ago now: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/hot/This-game-isn-t-as-grindy-as-other-MMOs/first#post5817481 “It’s up to Anet to fix this problem before the filter starts working again. Imho that is within the first half year of the release of HoT.”

You act like if I have been stating the game was failing and now after 4 years that the numbers are down are coming here to show that I am right. But of course we both know that is not true. I have always talked about the longer term, I made it more specific with the release of HoT that the first half year of HoT would be important. And now that we have 2 full quarters after that first half year I am back to come and look at the results.

Vayne.8563:

You draw the conclusion they’re down because of the gem store or because of the way Anet didn’t make a buy to play game in the exact image you said would work. There’s no evidence, not one shred of it, that your way would have provided greater sales even now, but there’s more.

I think it’s because of the cash-shop approach yes. I do not say these numbers proof that. I did however use the numbers to compare it to GW1 and looked of what the results would be if GW2 would manage to keep as popular (in comparison to it’s initial peak) as GW1 did. In that case it would have made much more money.

That is no factual proof, but it’s the closes we can come when making the comparison on the models based on objective data.

Vayne.8563:

You went in looking for the flaw. Looking for it. If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Let me ask you the simplest question.

Like how? Just as I always talked about the long-term I also talked a lot about the comparison with GW1 because of it’s model. So I now made that same comparison. That is not looking for a flaw.

Vayne.8563:

How do you know the content drought isn’t responsible for lost sales. How do you know the dungeon decision isn’t responsible for lower income? How do you know that the difficulty change between HOT and the core game aren’t the issue?

Like I said before. I never said these numbers proof that the cash-shop approach is the reason. In my opinion it is, I always talked about how that would be bad for the long term and now we do see a drop pretty much where I predicted it would be. But that does indeed not proof it.

Go back to my OP and read it again. I clearly say that in my vision or my idea this approach is (partly, or for a big part) the reason. But at no point do I say these numbers proof that.

So you are trying to debate with me about something that I did not say. They call that a straw-man.

2/2

All you can state is that sales have dropped. That’s it. You can’t offer any real evidence of why they’ve dropped.

That is right. I can proof they drop, I can make a comparison to GW1 and I can look at what I predicted in the past. That is all I can do because that is what we have data for, and so that is what I do with the data. I also give my opinion about why that is the case. I do not say this data proofs that.

Vayne.8563:

The fact is, the cash shop and the system in place has been around since launch and you’ve had to wait four years to “prove your point”.

You started with that and you also now since the beginning I talked about the long-term. I liked a old post to proof that as well. Luckily we do have the data to proof that.

Vayne.8563:

That’s not how logic works. Logic works by taking facts and they figuring out how those facts came to be. It is absolutely a fact that Guild Wars 2 has had it’s lowest quarter profits since launch. You don’t have to prove that, because that’s right.

Logic also falls apart when you take facts out. Like how you trying to win this debate by saying I had to wait for years to proof my point as if it simply took this long for the numbers to do down and I was always saying it was failing. That sounds logical. It sounds like you have a point. Until you put the fact that I always talked about the long-term and I talked about how the first half year after HoT would be important. Now with that fact you logic falls apart. Because with that fact you see I have not just been waiting for it to fail but always look to this moment in time.

Vayne.8563:

But there have been many many complaints on these forums about a multitude of issues, including balance issues, the game becoming more grindy and less casual, the price of the expansion for the amount of content offered, the perception that casuals have been left behind, the way dungeons had been nerfed, there are so many ways to explain a loss of income (which probably coincides with two things, loss of a player base combined with veterans finding ways to farm that allow them to buy gems with gold instead of cash).

Yeah multiple things probably have played a role. I just say what in my opinion plays the biggest role. In my opinion the cash-shop focus is a big reason for the grind, and the grind is what makes people bored and if people get bored by a game they will leave.

But I also added some other issues myself in my own OP. (No traditional quest, no seamless zones) So it’s not like I act as if the cash-shop focus is the only problem. I do however think is the base of the problem. Because imo it makes the game grindy and so boring and if a game is boring the rest also does not matter much anymore. You can have great balancing in a game, but if the game is boring that is imo a biggest problem.

Vayne.8563:

There’s no way you can actually draw the conclusions you draw, unless you’d already made up your mind that was the reason in the first place.

Only I did not draw that conclusion based on the results as you are suggesting in this post.
The numbers show what they show and not more. The cash-shop focus is my opinion about it. It’s not something these numbers factually proof nor did I say that they did.

Vayne.8563:

If you were right, you wouldn’t have had to wait four years to make your post.

Now please explain this one.

You are the one who wants factual data. I always talked about the long term and later more specific about how the first half year after HoT would be important. That means the first possibility to make this post is when the results of the first quarter after the period I talked about is available. That would be Q2, but one quarter does not say that much, besides back then there was a lack of content that many people where blaming it on so now with the numbers of Q3 (that includes 2 months of S3) it’s the only moment for me to make this post.
There has never been a better moment and there will never be a better moment.

Devata.6589:

Vayne.8563:

No Devata, you’ve been the one using flawed logic.

Where?

Devata.6589:

That is right. I can proof they drop, I can make a comparison to GW1 and I can look at what I predicted in the past. That is all I can do because that is what we have data for, and so that is what I do with the data. I also give my opinion about why that is the case. I do not say this data proofs that.

Your analysis offers no reason whatsoever for why your opinion should be preferred over other reasons. In fact, those other reasons have appeared in abundance on these boards and elsewhere since HoT launched. Until this thread dropped, I hadn’t seen any overall complaints about the cash shop since you stopped posting almost a year ago. Sure, I see complaints about items being too costly, gold conversion to gem rates, outfits v. armor and other store issues, but not, “The store is bad and why I stopped playing.”

In short, you looked at numbers and drew a conclusion without any consideration for other available data. That’s flawed analysis.

Nice information, Devata. Unfortunately it is wasted here in this forum. The responses here are almost as predictable as the sun rising.

And I’ve always contented Devata that during the extended development of GW2 ANet realized that a paid “box” B2P business model similar to GW couldn’t support the size of the team required to meet such a release schedule. Especially if you expected a similar amount of content for each expansion following the model set by GW’s campaign releases.

Now you are going to scoff at that but you only have to look at how fast ANet is delivering content in the last four years and honestly ask yourself if they could pull off a Cantha or Elona GW like expansion. The latest AMA stated it takes each of the LWS3 teams 6 months for each episode. Content that takes less than 6 hours to do the story and how long to get all the achievements and grow tired of the area? And you think that all the content creation groups except a “live team” could create another core Tyria size, level 1-80 MMO in 12 to 18 months? It’s going to take two years to see another HoT sized expansion. Blizzard still relies on monthly subs to provide the cash flow for their expansion release schedule and you think ANet could do it on just game sales which exponentially drop off over time? Right.

It’s clear that to maintain ANet’s “buy once, play forever” philosophy, no subscriptions or even the “voluntary” subscription approach with a monthly VIP level would be allowed. That left a cash shop or winning Powerball when it’s over $500 million every few years.

Behellagh.1468:

But let me look at something a little different than just GW2 sales.

Below I’ve included three charts. The first shows game income by region, as NCSOFT breaks them into. Note that after 1Q2014 they combined NA and EU sales which I think was do to the restructuring that created the NC West Holding company as well as NCSOFT licencing off day to day operation and localization of AION and Lineage 2 in Europe, shifting any income from those games to royalties than income to an NCSOFT subsidiary.

Notable dates on the region chart. AION came out in South Korea 4Q08 which is that surge. AION came out everywhere else 3Q09 which is the surge in NA+EU. Also as you can see before GW2, NA+EU wasn’t a strong region but after it became their 2nd largest region. The income bump 2Q14 in NA+EU was Wildstar being released, the bump in 1Q16 was partially due to HoT but primarily due to Blade &Soul being released in region.

This is illustrated in the 2nd and 3rd charts. Since reported GW2 income as well as Wildstar is limited to the NA+EU region, if you factor them out you can see how NCSOFT’s remaining games are doing in the region, which was roughly between $2.5-5 million a quarter until Blade & Soul was released. But, with very limited data, next quarter will tell, it looks as if B&S will follow AION’s boom-bust pattern in NA+EU. The last chart shows a percentage breakdown of income source from the region.

My point here is that in the big picture, NA+EU are very relevant in NCSOFT’s income and GW2 makes up the bulk of that. NCSOFT has had very limited success here until GW2. And if B&S burns out as I expect it to, GW2 will still be the cornerstone of it’s income from NA+EU. I don’t think they will interfere with their one very successful NA studio and game.

I fully expect 4Q16 to see GW2 to be once again above 70% of the source of NA+EU region’s income, bolstered by the game license sale, a returning population and B&S income continue to fall.

That’s my 2 copper.

“Guild Halls were expensive to build. Scribing was super expensive to level. Crafting precursors were expensive and time consuming.” Expensive, not hard or challeging. This relates to my complain about grind.

“My point here is that in the big picture, NA+EU are very relevant in NCSOFT’s income and GW2 makes up the bulk of that. NCSOFT has had very limited success here until GW2. And if B&S burns out as I expect it to, GW2 will still be the cornerstone of it’s income from NA+EU. I don’t think they will interfere with their one very successful NA studio and game.” You are right. GW2 was very proffitable for Ncsoft and stillis profittable. From an investor’s viewpoint GW2 was a succes. They made there money. However I am not simply looking from that perspective. Many MMO-gamers want their game to be popular over many years. Many people are still playing Lineage 1 and WoW so I am also looking from that persepctive.

When GW2 will now get stuck around the 15 million a quarter it means the game is in a much smaller scope then it used to be. You will likely see that in the number og players but it might also result in the team having to shrink down. All things I would expect most people where would prefer not to see happening.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Devata.6589:

Vayne.8563:

No Devata, you’ve been the one using flawed logic.

Where?

Devata.6589:

That is right. I can proof they drop, I can make a comparison to GW1 and I can look at what I predicted in the past. That is all I can do because that is what we have data for, and so that is what I do with the data. I also give my opinion about why that is the case. I do not say this data proofs that.

Your analysis offers no reason whatsoever for why your opinion should be preferred over other reasons.

I never said it does.

IndigoSundown.5419:

In fact, those other reasons have appeared in abundance on these boards and elsewhere since HoT launched. Until this thread dropped, I hadn’t seen any overall complaints about the cash shop since you stopped posting almost a year ago.

There have been many complains about grind over the years. It’s really the grind that I blame, but I also say that the focus on the cash-shop is the most likely reason for the grind. That is my opinion.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Sure, I see complaints about items being too costly, gold conversion to gem rates, outfits v. armor and other store issues, but not, “The store is bad and why I stopped playing.”

Again no, imo it’s the grind, the grind make people bored and that is why they leave. It’s not because of the cash-shop. The cash-shop is in my opinion the underlying reason for it.
It’s like if you have soup and people don’t like it, they will not eat it. The reason they don’t like it might be some ingredient (they might not even know that is in there). If they complain it’s about the taste of the soup, not that ingredient that is to blame for the taste.

IndigoSundown.5419:

In short, you looked at numbers and drew a conclusion without any consideration for other available data. That’s flawed analysis.

No it’s more that you drew (or Vayne) the conclusion that I said that these results proof that the cash-shop is to blame. I never did do that.

I still think this is the reason, but there is no way I can factually proof that. Nor can any other reason be proven by the data we have.

—

Also noticed how I talked about the multiple weaknesses in the data (see OP). If I was just trying to proof a point by playing with data I would not mention those things. I simply try to show the results and made a comparison with GW1 in an as fair possible way.

Neural.1824:

Nice information, Devata. Unfortunately it is wasted here in this forum. The responses here are almost as predictable as the sun rising.

Well I expected a lot of negative feedback. Like I said in my OP “Over the years my opinions where not always welcomed here” and I did not expect it to be much better now. In fact, I expected that most people who would back me up back then had left the game by now only leaving those who mostly defend the game to be left in the forums.

That is fine. I have been active in these forums for multiple years, something I usually am not in game-forums. To me it seemed fair to come back when we had the numbers about the period I always talked about. In fact, some people even asked me to do so. That is why I am now here.

I am sure that most of the people here do like this game a lot, but they also must see things are not going so great. One would hope that they came to their senses and after having defended 90% of any decisions over the last years (and see where that did bring us) they are now willing to look a little more critical to things. Blind love does not help.

In fact, defending almost everything out of blind love might be part of the problem.

Anyway, it does not matter. I did what I did feel I had to do. It’s up to them what they do with it.

Behellagh.1468:

And I’ve always contented Devata that during the extended development of GW2 ANet realized that a paid “box” B2P business model similar to GW couldn’t support the size of the team required to meet such a release schedule. Especially if you expected a similar amount of content for each expansion following the model set by GW’s campaign releases.

Now you are going to scoff at that but you only have to look at how fast ANet is delivering content in the last four years and honestly ask yourself if they could pull off a Cantha or Elona GW like expansion. The latest AMA stated it takes each of the LWS3 teams 6 months for each episode. Content that takes less than 6 hours to do the story and how long to get all the achievements and grow tired of the area? And you think that all the content creation groups except a “live team” could create another core Tyria size, level 1-80 MMO in 12 to 18 months? It’s going to take two years to see another HoT sized expansion. Blizzard still relies on monthly subs to provide the cash flow for their expansion release schedule and you think ANet could do it on just game sales which exponentially drop off over time? Right.

It’s clear that to maintain ANet’s “buy once, play forever” philosophy, no subscriptions or even the “voluntary” subscription approach with a monthly VIP level would be allowed. That left a cash shop or winning Powerball when it’s over $500 million every few years.

We don’t know for sure but it looks like most of the content for HoT was built within 1,5 year (Based on comments made by Anet). The LS team is not the complete development-team.

“And you think that all the content creation groups except a “live team” could create another core Tyria size, level 1-80 MMO in 12 to 18 months? It’s going to take two years to see another HoT sized expansion.
~
and you think ANet could do it on just game sales which exponentially drop off over time? Right.”

Thing is, if they would focus so much on expansions instead of other things not only could expansions come faster but would likely also be of a higher quality. That might then have resulted in less of a drop. In fact that is what we did see with GW1. Mainly expansion-based, less of a drop over time and most expansions / campaigns well within 1,5 year. GW1 released its expansions in 0,5 to 1 year. Also an expansion is usually not as big as the original game. So no, I am not talking about another core Tyria size, level 1-80 MMO.
Of course GW2 is much bigger so it takes more time. Then again, they also have more time (when following my approach), instead of 0,5 to 1 year, 1 to 1,5 year and have a much bigger team. And then yes I do think they can push out a full expansion (not the size of the core game) in 1 to 1,5 year.

“It’s clear that to maintain ANet’s “buy once, play forever” philosophy, no subscriptions or even the “voluntary” subscription approach with a monthly VIP level would be allowed. That left a cash shop or winning Powerball when it’s over $500 million every few years.”
If you do not believe in the expansion approach yes. You don’t believe in it because you think they cannot push out expansions with that speed. I think they can.

Well, everything shows the same. Sinking revenue, sinking interest (big game sites like Gamespot not even tested HoT – imagine that…). Popularity is down to nothingness, on Twitch GW2 is behind almost all major competitors. They usually get 20 views, compare that to WoW – 10 years old – with tens of thousands of viewers…

No, they misconcepted it right after release not going for expansions but living story and then decided to actually make an expansion, but only half-baked which was clearly initially though as living story releases. Then we get the expansion with only 4 maps and a high price tag. Bam! That’s why people leave. That’s why they do now everything to change that and I really, really hope they will release the next expansion next year. Otherwise even less people are returning.

The problem is if they released an expansion every 1 year wouldn’t that mean we get nothing in-between? Remember that between expansions we didn’t get much in GW1.
I think releasing something every 2 months, like the LS3 release schedule, is better than releasing bigger chunks of content over longer periods. It keeps people interested and playing, instead of playing for a week or two then stop and wait for the next expansion.

maddoctor.2738:

The problem is if they released an expansion every 1 year wouldn’t that mean we get nothing in-between? Remember that between expansions we didn’t get much in GW1.
I think releasing something every 2 months, like the LS3 release schedule, is better than releasing bigger chunks of content over longer periods. It keeps people interested and playing, instead of playing for a week or two then stop and wait for the next expansion.

There are of course a few ways they could address the period between expansions. I can only say how I would address it. I don’t know if you remember the very start of season 1, even before it was named season 1? We did have very small patches back then that added a house somewhere or put some signs up (to show refugees the way).
I would mostly do such small patches, they might not even have content attached to them but simply tell a story, something for the player base to talk about. Maybe a road that is being constructed. You could even have minor unrelated side-stories like a family house that did go up in flames.
That keeps the game-world alive without required to much work from the devs. Right in-between the patches (so 6 to 9 months after the release of the last expansion and before the next one) I would put out one bigger patch that does have more content. Maybe a new dungeon or some other event.
All those patches together simply set up the story for the next expansion.
If the expansion itself is good enough it should hold enough content to keep players busy for 1 to 1,5 year. And then there are also the holiday-patches and the one bigger patch in-between to keep people busy.
Personally I think that would work just fine. As we could see from the Q2 and Q3 of 2015 the lack of content is not the biggest problem especially if people have an expansion on the horizon.
Of course all this can be nice but only works if people enjoy the content. If people get bored by it (what imho is happening because of the grind) it does not really matter. Then again, with a focus on expansion there is less reason for the game to be grindy as I personally blame the cash-shop focus for making the game grindy.
So I do think you could make it work and keep the players happy between the expansions. I think even WoW only has like one mayor content-patch between expansions, and used to have an expansion once every 2 years. Still that worked fine for them.

Btw, I want to make clear that I am not blaming HoT for where we are now. HoT simply did not fix the problem. Imo without HoT we would be at a similar point today. Simply take the down-going trend from before the announcement of HoT (so until Q1 2015) and continue that. If you do that we would now probably be at the similar place.

HoT was imo not the problem, but it should have been the cure for the problem. Sadly whatever was the problem with GW2 (you know what where the main reasons for that according to me) did not get cured with HoT. That resulted in the people who came back for HoT leaving again and the game simply returning to the ongoing downward trend it was on before HoT.

Devata.6589:

Btw, I want to make clear that I am not blaming HoT for where we are now. HoT simply did not fix the problem. Imo without HoT we would be at a similar point today. Simply take the down-going trend from before the announcement of HoT (so until Q1 2015) and continue that. If you do that we would now probably be at the similar place.

HoT was imo not the problem, but it should have been the cure for the problem. Sadly whatever was the problem with GW2 (you know what where the main reasons for that according to me) did not get cured with HoT. That resulted in the people who came back for HoT leaving again and the game simply returning to the ongoing downward trend it was on before HoT.

Still not really sure why the actual complains we see about HOT are ignored by you to fill in the pet theory you’ve been shopping for years now, with relatively little support.

Your statement is sales are down. Sales are down in lots of games. You still can’t compare a ten year old game to a current game and you’ve given me no reason why you should be able to and expect congruent results. The entire playing field is difffernt, but you keep ignoring that.

There were tons of complaints about HoT. Not just a few, but a lot. Considering how many complaints their were, I’m not sure how you can conclude that HoT isn’t one of the reasons sales are down.

Aside from the fact that there’s almost never one reason for anything, in this case we have a bevy of reasons that have been covered again and again on these forums, from content drought to the price of the expansion, to the power creep to the dungeon nerf to the new WvW map to the small guild issues…it’s all been covered in excrutiating detail.

We rarely see complaints about the cash shop. Certainly not in any kind of numbers.

All this bears out is that the game is struggling with player retention and I’m pretty sure a content drought combined with lacklustre expansion sales is more than enough of a reason to cause that kind of drop in revenue.

ProtoGunner.4953:

Well, everything shows the same. Sinking revenue, sinking interest (big game sites like Gamespot not even tested HoT – imagine that…). Popularity is down to nothingness, on Twitch GW2 is behind almost all major competitors. They usually get 20 views, compare that to WoW – 10 years old – with tens of thousands of viewers…

No, they misconcepted it right after release not going for expansions but living story and then decided to actually make an expansion, but only half-baked which was clearly initially though as living story releases. Then we get the expansion with only 4 maps and a high price tag. Bam! That’s why people leave. That’s why they do now everything to change that and I really, really hope they will release the next expansion next year. Otherwise even less people are returning.

Looking at Twitch right now, None EST. WoW – 15,700; Runescape – 6,100; Black Desert – 1,400;; Lineage II – 1,200; SWTOR – 750; Elder Scrolls – 530; Guild Wars 2 – 510

So we have MMOs that are old and have millions of players and ones that came out F2P this year in NA/EU. Also Twitch viewer ship for a game is very caster based as 40% of the viewers for any particular game listed above are from a single caster. If a caster’s following was built playing a particular game, of course they will continue to play that game. Also Twitch is international so games more popular outside of the NA, for instance nearly all Lineage II streams aren’t in English reflecting the fact that Lineage II isn’t popular in NA.

1/2

There were tons of complaints about HoT. Not just a few, but a lot. Considering how many complaints their were, I’m not sure how you can conclude that HoT isn’t one of the reasons sales are down.

Because if we look back to before the announcement of HoT, GW2 was already in a downtrend. If you would ignore the HoT part and simply continue that trend we would now be at a similar place. That is why. It’s not that hard.

Vayne.8563:

Aside from the fact that there’s almost never one reason for anything, in this case we have a bevy of reasons that have been covered again and again on these forums, from content drought to the price of the expansion, to the power creep to the dungeon nerf to the new WvW map to the small guild issues…it’s all been covered in excrutiating detail.

It´s funny. All these years you have been mainly using the defense “people on these forums are the vocal minority” and ANET had better numbers as us so they knew what they where doing. And now suddenly when you can use the comments on the forum this is not a problem anymore? And then you dare to say that I am bending the facts so they better fit my theory? No, you are now here bending things so they best fit your ideas.

Also you forget about that other complain you did hear a lot, the grind!
Obviously there are multiple reasons, but that does not mean there can be one main reason.

Vayne.8563:

We rarely see complaints about the cash shop. Certainly not in any kind of numbers.

No, but we did hear a lot of complains about the grind. The difference is that many people complain about what they dislike while I try to find the reason for that thing. In this case I consider that the cash-shop focus.

Vayne.8563:

All this bears out is that the game is struggling with player retention and I’m pretty sure a content drought combined with lacklustre expansion sales is more than enough of a reason to cause that kind of drop in revenue.

You are sure that it’s the content drought combined with lackluster expansion sales. Well I don’t think the sales where not that bad at all, if you consider where the game was at that moment. And the results clearly suggest that the content drought is not the main issue. I know it’s what many of the people here think (No wonder, they tent to be the ones who did love the LS approach) but the numbers simply do not back this up. And yes, the numbers do show something about this. During the content drought we had the half year before HoT the results where better then during the Season 2 releases just before that. And this last quarter (Q3 2016) had lower results then Q2 while Q3 had two full months of season 3. In fact in the discussion about Q2 many people (those that believe in the content drought being the problem) including you suggested it would likely go up in Q3.

In that thread you where using the same arguments you have always done.. you know something along the lines of ’It’s a fact that you don’t know how it would have been if (alternate reality)…’ and ‘you don’t have the numbers to back that up’. You have been refusing to look at numbers and at logic since the beginning. Only trying to dismiss anything.

But let’s also look at some other things you where saying.. Here is that thread: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/GW2-Sales-2Q16-a-new-All-Time-Low/first (I finally found it)

“Do you know what a trend is? What will you say if you come back next quarter and the sales are higher? ”

Well here we are with the numbers of Q3 are lower. The question is, what do you say now. Ah yeah, still the same.

“A long content draught with nothing but raids will do that to you. ”

Ah here is the content drought reason again. So can you proof that? I do my best to come with as much as objective data as I can and you only try to dismiss everything. But you make statements without any form of proof or data to back it up. In fact the data suggest you are plain wrong! So please proof this claim!

2/2
“It isn’t over till it’s over. HoT had a lot of issues that had nothing to do with HoT that absolutely affected HoT sales. You can say I told you so all you want but I bet the next expansion is going to be a different story, because that’s how Anet tends to roll. They learn from the first one and the next one gets better.”

Wondering if you are willing to keep this claim up? Because I expect the next expansion to do worse, with the exception if they manage to market it basically as GW3. (Now it’s commented here we can later use that as a fact of what has been said).

“Living Story Season 1 was arguably the worst grind because it was time limited. People had a month to get what they wanted and then it was gone forever. How is that friendly to casual players?
Living Story Season 2 had hard bosses and hard achievements with an armor set locked behind it that you could only get if you banged away at it.”

Heey look, even you acknowledge the grind. Something you did forget to mention in this thread. How convenient.

And now for the holy grail!
Page 5, the end of one of your comments
“It’ll be more interested to see the next quarter, since they put the game on sale for half price. That might have a positive affect on sales, particularly with the LS 3 coming out.”
You did feel this Q3 might have been better. Partly because of S3. What make sense because you believe in this content drought theory. So you where interested in Q3. And now we have Q3 and the numbers are in fact negative?? Well, now you still won’t change your mind. You still hold on to this content drought theory without any good facts to back it up and you still dismiss people like me who come with other reasons. This is blind love at work right here. Please Vayne, for your own sake, open your eyes.

Vayne.8563:

Still not really sure why the actual complains we see about HOT are ignored by you to fill in the pet theory you’ve been shopping for years now, with relatively little support.

You know what, lets turn the tables here for a moment.

About since half a year after release I have been suggested the road they where on was bad. That they should focus on expansion-sales instead of cash-shop sales.

People like you, including you have been defending the LS approach (and so indirectly the cash-shop focus) for all that time.

That was the struggle going on, on these forums between us.

Of course Anet always new better what they where doing according to you.

What happened? Results for GW2 did go down and down. You guys (people who defended the LS approach) where still defending it when also Anet came to the conclusion that it was not working. More then 2 years after I first stated it would not work.

Anyway, by that time Anet announced an the expansion. So finally they did at least a part of what I suggested and that was the first time since release that the numbers did go up again!

I also said, great. It’s a little late but still good that they finally have an expansion. However HoT should solve this grind-problem. Anet should finally move back to a true expansion model. Because else half a year after the release we will end up where we left of.

Anet did fix things with HoT but not the thing that I personally did see as the main problem. And now we are exactly where I predicted we would be.

No I can not proof that that is also the reason I gave. But my track record is pretty good. I said the LS approach would not work, and it did not work (Not as Anet wanted it). I said we needed expansions and when they announced an expansion the sales finally did go up (Something their approach (that you supported) was not able to do!), and I said if they did not fix this cash-shop focus, that after the first half year of HoT we would be where we are now.

Now the track-record of you? You (and people like you) have been defending the LS and results only dropped. Only when Anet changed there mind on that what you defended the sales did go up again.

Last quarter you suggested Q3 might go up because of S3, but it did not.

You have been proven wrong for 4 years strait. However you still keep on to your own reality. Please wake up.

Stop trying to dismiss anything people are saying you disagree with. Take a step back and look what you have been saying and how that worked out so far!

You can hope Anet did not do what they did partly because they did feel supported by people like you.

Behellagh.1468:

ProtoGunner.4953:

Well, everything shows the same. Sinking revenue, sinking interest (big game sites like Gamespot not even tested HoT – imagine that…). Popularity is down to nothingness, on Twitch GW2 is behind almost all major competitors. They usually get 20 views, compare that to WoW – 10 years old – with tens of thousands of viewers…

No, they misconcepted it right after release not going for expansions but living story and then decided to actually make an expansion, but only half-baked which was clearly initially though as living story releases. Then we get the expansion with only 4 maps and a high price tag. Bam! That’s why people leave. That’s why they do now everything to change that and I really, really hope they will release the next expansion next year. Otherwise even less people are returning.

Looking at Twitch right now, None EST. WoW – 15,700; Runescape – 6,100; Black Desert – 1,400;; Lineage II – 1,200; SWTOR – 750; Elder Scrolls – 530; Guild Wars 2 – 510

So we have MMOs that are old and have millions of players and ones that came out F2P this year in NA/EU. Also Twitch viewer ship for a game is very caster based as 40% of the viewers for any particular game listed above are from a single caster. If a caster’s following was built playing a particular game, of course they will continue to play that game. Also Twitch is international so games more popular outside of the NA, for instance nearly all Lineage II streams aren’t in English reflecting the fact that Lineage II isn’t popular in NA.

I think what he is saying, is that GW2 is starting to be invisible for the masses out there. It’s one of the many MMO’s that ones was a thing, instead of being one of the big MMO’s.

Of course you would prefer it to be one of the big MMO’s. Imho GW2 had the possibility to be one of those big ones, also still today. That is why I did get into GW2 and not in the many other MMO’s.

Devata.6589:

Again no, imo it’s the grind, the grind make people bored and that is why they leave. It’s not because of the cash-shop. The cash-shop is in my opinion the underlying reason for it.

IndigoSundown.5419:

In short, you looked at numbers and drew a conclusion without any consideration for other available data. That’s flawed analysis.

No it’s more that you drew (or Vayne) the conclusion that I said that these results proof that the cash-shop is to blame. I never did do that.

I still think this is the reason, but there is no way I can factually proof that. Nor can any other reason be proven by the data we have.

I did not say you claimed to prove anything. I said, to rephrase it, your conclusions are largely unsupported by the data because you ignore many reasons stated by many posters.

See, you can have an opinion all you like. However, when you post that opinion in a thread in which you offer facts, you’re attempting to convince others that your opinion is correct. Since you (now) cite one complaint (perceived grind) and ignore the remainder, your argument is unconvincing — except perhaps to those who already believe as you do.

Considering we will be able to purchase a whole slew of new licensed merchandise, I don’t think we have to worry about ArenaNet’s business model.

ArenaNet isn’t likely to close its doors anytime soon.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Devata.6589:

Again no, imo it’s the grind, the grind make people bored and that is why they leave. It’s not because of the cash-shop. The cash-shop is in my opinion the underlying reason for it.

IndigoSundown.5419:

In short, you looked at numbers and drew a conclusion without any consideration for other available data. That’s flawed analysis.

No it’s more that you drew (or Vayne) the conclusion that I said that these results proof that the cash-shop is to blame. I never did do that.

I still think this is the reason, but there is no way I can factually proof that. Nor can any other reason be proven by the data we have.

I did not say you claimed to prove anything. I said, to rephrase it, your conclusions are largely unsupported by the data because you ignore many reasons stated by many posters.

See, you can have an opinion all you like. However, when you post that opinion in a thread in which you offer facts, you’re attempting to convince others that your opinion is correct. Since you (now) cite one complaint (perceived grind) and ignore the remainder, your argument is unconvincing — except perhaps to those who already believe as you do.

I do not ignore the remainder. Everybody is free to give their opinions about it. Why would I be required to sum up all the opinions that people have? That make no sense.

I simply provide data and do so because I have been making claims in the past (based on my ideas) about how things would go / be where we are now.

In addition to that I also mention my opinion why that is.

Now the fact that my predictions came true and where based on the assumption that the cash-shop focus was to blame (That is the link between the two and why both are mentioned here by me) might support that theory a little. But other then that I do not say these numbers proof that.

And obviously I always try to debate with people and so also try to convince people of my point.
I am open for other suggestions, but the main reason I hear here (content drought) just does not do it for me. Thats what you do in a debate. But again, I don’t feel I have to point out everybody opinion.

So this “Since you (now) cite one complaint (perceived grind) and ignore the remainder” makes no sense. I do not ignore other complains. In fact, I did provide two addition reasons other then the cash-shop focus myself in the OP. Lack of traditional quests and no seamless zones.

Everybody is free to comment their ideas and we can debate them as well. The main other opinion I do see here is the content drought, but the numbers do suggest that is incorrect. So they might not proof my theory is right, they do however suggest (not proof) that the content drought theory is false.

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

Considering we will be able to purchase a whole slew of new licensed merchandise, I don’t think we have to worry about ArenaNet’s business model.

ArenaNet isn’t likely to close its doors anytime soon.

ArenaNet is indeed not likely to close its doors anytime soon. But that does not mean GW2 is in the pace it could or should be. Especially from the gamers perspective.

But lack of traditional quests was a selling point, I just recently watched the Gamescon presentation from 2010. As for seamless zones, that’s a day 1 design decision on both the server and client side.

Devata.6589:

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

Considering we will be able to purchase a whole slew of new licensed merchandise, I don’t think we have to worry about ArenaNet’s business model.

ArenaNet isn’t likely to close its doors anytime soon.

ArenaNet is indeed not likely to close its doors anytime soon. But that does not mean GW2 is in the pace it could or should be. Especially from the gamers perspective.

Nor, again, worry about its business model. Unless, of course, you speak for all gamers. I know lots try to do so.

The bigger problem isn’t about generating new content fast enough but instead making that content enjoyable enough to keep coming back for.

Right now, a majority of the game’s systems simply aren’t fun, and the few that may be are locked behind ones which aren’t fun.

They could start with profession design considering most elements of combat aren’t even a good time anymore.

@Devata, yes, I did defend the LS approach. Anet changed that approach with the expansion which I never claimed to be in favor of, though I understand why they did it.

The FACT remains, there’s a trend that the game isn’t doing as well, but there’s not even nearly enough data to suggest anyone one cause or even any major cause for it.

However, whether the forums are a vocal minority or not, it stands to reason that the more people complaining on the forums, the more likely it is to be a problem to more people not complaining.

So, if a bunch of people are complaining that the game is too hard, for some people it is. We’re not seeing and have never seen major complaints about the cash shop.

There’s simply no evidence here except that the trend is less income,. after an expansion that didn’t do well.

But you were the one arguing for the expansion model and I was the one arguing against it. As it stood too many people on the forums spoke too loudly about having an expansion, Anet changed it’s path mid-way leading to all sorts of issues, including a content drought and the result is less sales.

My guess is, and it’s just a guess, that the shift more toward your philsophy is what hurt the game, rather than the living story focus, which was gone for the content drought.

In other words, your numbers seem to back up my theory a whole lot more than they back up your theory.

DeceiverX.8361:

The bigger problem isn’t about generating new content fast enough but instead making that content enjoyable enough to keep coming back for.

Right now, a majority of the game’s systems simply aren’t fun, and the few that may be are locked behind ones which aren’t fun.

They could start with profession design considering most elements of combat aren’t even a good time anymore.

Fun isn’t a static value. I’m almost 100% positive that the stuff you’d find fun, I’d find unfun.

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

Devata.6589:

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

Considering we will be able to purchase a whole slew of new licensed merchandise, I don’t think we have to worry about ArenaNet’s business model.

ArenaNet isn’t likely to close its doors anytime soon.

ArenaNet is indeed not likely to close its doors anytime soon. But that does not mean GW2 is in the pace it could or should be. Especially from the gamers perspective.

Nor, again, worry about its business model. Unless, of course, you speak for all gamers. I know lots try to do so.

Devata, you simply have no evidence at all that the reasons you’ve stated previously are the reasons Anet is in this position and I strongly suspect if they launched the game the way you suggested they launch it, they probably would have done worse sooner.

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

ProtoGunner.4953:

Well, everything shows the same. Sinking revenue, sinking interest (big game sites like Gamespot not even tested HoT – imagine that…). Popularity is down to nothingness, on Twitch GW2 is behind almost all major competitors. They usually get 20 views, compare that to WoW – 10 years old – with tens of thousands of viewers…

No, they misconcepted it right after release not going for expansions but living story and then decided to actually make an expansion, but only half-baked which was clearly initially though as living story releases. Then we get the expansion with only 4 maps and a high price tag. Bam! That’s why people leave. That’s why they do now everything to change that and I really, really hope they will release the next expansion next year. Otherwise even less people are returning.

Looking at Twitch right now, None EST. WoW – 15,700; Runescape – 6,100; Black Desert – 1,400;; Lineage II – 1,200; SWTOR – 750; Elder Scrolls – 530; Guild Wars 2 – 510

So we have MMOs that are old and have millions of players and ones that came out F2P this year in NA/EU. Also Twitch viewer ship for a game is very caster based as 40% of the viewers for any particular game listed above are from a single caster. If a caster’s following was built playing a particular game, of course they will continue to play that game. Also Twitch is international so games more popular outside of the NA, for instance nearly all Lineage II streams aren’t in English reflecting the fact that Lineage II isn’t popular in NA.

I think what he is saying, is that GW2 is starting to be invisible for the masses out there. It’s one of the many MMO’s that ones was a thing, instead of being one of the big MMO’s.

Of course you would prefer it to be one of the big MMO’s. Imho GW2 had the possibility to be one of those big ones, also still today. That is why I did get into GW2 and not in the many other MMO’s.

Yes, that was my point. It’s the whole recognition value of the franchise. There are a ton of Overwatch, LoL, Dota, Warcraft, Diablo etc. cosplays, jokes, memes, comics, fanart etc. Of course this doesn’t represent the reputation or the success of a game/franchise, but I don’t see anything near this from GW. GW is dead, people ask me if I tell them I play GW: ‘Oh really? This still does exist?’

If popularity is so low of course people won’t play it. It’s one of the many MMOs in the soup of MMOs and in my opinion GW deserved better. I don’t know where this comes from but maybe it has to do with the rather flat characters and non-recognizable, distinguished protagonists. It’s a shame be cause artistically GW is an absolutely stunning franchise.