Guild Wars 2

@ Devata

Except for HOT which many people complained didn’t offer content for them. There are people who play neither the HOT zones, nor raid. So if they were in small guilds, what did HOT offer them? The revenant and an elite spec?

To that end, WvW players didn’t think HoT delivered that much either.

Expansions, as I’ve said many times, don’t guarantee a lot of content for everyone. They simply guarantee some content.

There’s also the issue of price for the content that’s available which a lot of people seemed to have an issue with.

Just having an expansion is not the answer. In fact, some MMOs have been killed by expansions.

Vayne.8563:

Substance E.4852:

Vayne.8563:

The cash shop is pervasive now. There are people who want to spend money to get stuff rather than play the game. My sons are both like that, because that’s the environment they grew up in.

They see a new game, they buy the game and then spend money on downloadable content or in the cash shop or whatever. That’s how they’re trained to think.

Not having the ability to do that could hurt the game, because people will have less options. As nuts as it sounds, not everyone wants to play a game they’re playing.

They’d rather take short cuts with cash.

That sounds like a personal issue your kids have that you’re projecting onto others.

Yes no one plays face book games and spends money on gems. Candy Corn Crush didn’t make a ton of money. Farmville didn’t make a ton of money. It was all just my kids. Keep telling yourself that.

Or maybe it’s endemic to the way the world works now and that’s why more and more games, like Archeage, and BDO are putting more and more emphasis on cash shops, in many of the same ways. People don’t copy the formula if it doesn’t work . At the very least you should realize that.

Sounds to me like you’re not paying attention to what’s actually been going on.

Sounds to me like you want to back peddle.

People wanting to throw money at the screen to buy things in a game they play is not the same thing as people buying an outfit in a game that they then stop playing or have no desire to play.

Mobile games are also designed to require payment to keep playing. Try playing virtually any mobile/browser game without cracking open your wallet and you will find yourself not playing very much at all. It’s not even remotely the same thing as a kid buying an outfit in Maplestory, feeling completely satisfied by that alone, and then going to do something else as soon as they have it.

Sykper.6583:

Vayne’s correct.

Cash Shops or variants of ‘Paying for extra content’ are the future of current gaming. I would even extend it outside of MMOs or Mobile Games, some recent shooters have iterations like Loot Boxes that have a similar reward system. Currently playing Titanfall 2, I can get random cosmetic rewards on a whim, but they recently introduced new ‘Prime’ Titans that I can pay a bit of cash for that give me an alternative, different cosmetic look to my Titan which carries different voiceovers and executions.

We are getting away from Subs folks.

I’d dispute that. In fact I would say the PC market is somewhat pushing back against the practice. The decline in GW2, the severe pushback against the current swtor xpac which is blatant price gouging in this vein.

Its all leading to more niche games which do away with these anti consumer practices. Enhancing this will be Amazon’s platform which will make it easier and easier to develop online games with good netcode and synergies with social media.

Now look back at what I have been saying about how the game is grindy (what I blame to the cash-shop focus) and how that burns people out especially over a longer period. Just think about it.

I’d much prefer each type of content to give unique/exclusive rewards rather than all types of content giving access to all types of rewards. I just don’t see the cash-shop as the big issue here, for a long time they had a good balance of in-game and cash shop rewards, all LS1 episodes had loads of new skins to get by playing the appropriate content, every 2 weeks you had new rewards to find and play content to get. LS2 had much less skins to go for in-game.

You mean in the 3 quarters before HoT. Well you should then see if those sales aligned up. I don’t think the sales where active during the full 3 quarters but don’t know for sure.

I attached an image with clearer quarters. Let’s find out what happened at each quarter so this mystery is solved once and for all!

The lowest point of the game’s revenue (pre HoT) was at Q4 2014 which was around the end of LS2. Then it started going up with a bigger bump on Q2 2015, then declined again until Q3 2015, then HoT was released. So we have to see what happened at Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2015. There was no content released during those 3 quarters at all, so let’s see the Sales!

Q1: January 2015-March 2015
HoT was first announced on January 2015
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/announcing-the-first-guild-wars-2-expansion/
there was also a massive 75% sale:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/this-weekend-guild-wars-2-at-pax-south-an-unprecedented-sale-and-double-xp-for-all/
and gem store sales:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/pact-fleet-survival-pack-black-lion-chest-update-and-end-of-season-sale-continues-in-the-gem-store/
character slot sales:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/weekend-sale-character-slot-expansions/
and March sales, one new item discounted every day:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/march-daily-sales-in-the-gem-store/
and another 75% off sale!
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/pax-east-is-coming/
There are more but I’ll stop here as we can clearly see Q1 2015 had the expansion reveal AND loads of sales (including 75% off 2 times). It didn’t really need new content to keep it up.

Still, between the 3 quarters, Q1 was the weakest in revenue.

Let’s go to Q2 2015 where the little bump is.
First we got the LS2 complete pack:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/new-hairstyles-rainbow-unicorn-finisher-living-world-season-2-complete-pack-and-stronghold-beta-sale-in-the-gem-store/
so players who missed LS2 could buy it (with gems) and experience it.
and…
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/guild-wars-2-heart-of-thorns-is-available-for-pre-purchase/
Pre-purchase of HoT started towards the end of Q2 2015 which is probably why we got that bump. It’s not surprising that there was that bump there during pre-purchase, is it? I wonder though, was that bump smaller than expected because they refunded everyone who paid during their 2 massive sales?

For all players who purchased the Guild Wars 2 core game from our website and registered it between January 23, 2015 and June 16, 2015 in anticipation of Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns, we will automatically refund what you paid for the core game should you decide to pre-purchase Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns from our website or in-game store any time through July 31, 2015.

So those who bought the game during those two massive 75% sales got refunded… Are refunds showing on the revenue?

And finally we got to Q3 2015, the final quarter before HoT release
First as every year an anniversary sale:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/anniversary-sale/
and some other minor gem store promotions.

Vayne.8563:

Or maybe it’s endemic to the way the world works now and that’s why more and more games, like Archeage, and BDO are putting more and more emphasis on cash shops, in many of the same ways. People don’t copy the formula if it doesn’t work . At the very least you should realize that.

Sounds to me like you’re not paying attention to what’s actually been going on.

There was a time companies / people did not believe in cash-shops. Then there was a time that almost every company wanted to go for a P2P MMO, and they pretty much all failed.

The fact that people and companies copy things don’t mean they are good. Companies don’t know have all knowledge and in fact, in a pursue for money they very often make bad decisions. There are many examples of this.

The thing with the cash-shop approach is that it’s a risk-low approach. Even is sales of the game (or numbers of players) are low, you still get a pretty easy flow of income. If the games fails you can basically keep two people in place to put in some cash-shop junk so the investment will be payed back or losses will be as low as possible.

This is likely also one of the reason the many games where P2P failed, moved to a cash-shop model.

Now with a B2P game, is the game sells bad you will have lost a big part of your investment. There is not other income and an expansion will likely sell bad as well.

On the other hand, you can create a quality better game and if so if you manage to get a good player-base you have the potential to earn much more in the long term. (GW2 had that potential, not all games do)

Sadly many companies and investors prefer to go for the quick money. They don’t care if a game dies of after 3 years. They just invest in the next game and do the same trick again. If you can do that is a risk-low way you are golden from a financial perspective.

However, I prefer to see the company that believes in their product, that go’s for the long-term and so wants to create the best game where no compromises are made for the payment-model. The quality of the game should pay itself.

That is because I also like to look at it from the perspective of the gamer, not only form the perspective of the financial people. Now I know that a company needs to make money, but if you do this right you can make even more money. So there is a gain for both. I am very sorry for also looking at my own interest and so asking for something that can be best for both.

That something is happening a lot does not mean it’s the best you can have, or is the one you should settle for.

maddoctor.2738:

Sykper.6583:

Currently playing Titanfall 2, I can get random cosmetic rewards on a whim, but they recently introduced new ‘Prime’ Titans that I can pay a bit of cash for that give me an alternative, different cosmetic look to my Titan which carries different voiceovers and executions.

It’s also worth mentioning that Titanfall 2 DLCs are completely free (at least so far) and there is no paid season pass, unlike how it is for other popular shooters. They expect to make money through those cosmetic rewards and offer their new gameplay content for free.

Which to me looks exactly how the LS1 of GW2 was. Free content/gameplay updates with lots of cosmetic-only paid updates. We’ll see how it goes and if in the end it’s better than the paid DLC approach. (paid DLC = paid expansions)

There are also other ways. Honestly I would not be surprised as Blizzard is planning to move to a system as I am asking for with WoW. They already made it so you can pay the sub with in-game gold (not sure how much gold and how hard to get that) and are moving their expansion-releases closer to each other.

Then there is Overwatch from the same developer. That game has an initial sale, it does have a cash-shop but only sells loot-boxes you also get in-game. Now I do think cosmetics are bad in a MMO because it’s an element of the game, it’s part of the RPG experience, but considering Overwatch is a shooter that is not really a thing. However the way I see it, their long-term plans to earn money is not the cash-shop or the game (as there will be no expansions) but E-sports and merchandise. An approach I love because it has zero negative impact on the game itself.

And then there are of-course the many more traditional games that also work with the traditional B2P-game.

So luckily I also see approaches that are not going for a cash-shop focus approach.

Vayne.8563:

But the point I was making is a lot of us older gamers are uncomfortable with cash shops, because we didn’t grow up with them.

Devata played a game on computer 10 years ago which had a cash shop, but it was far less intrusive. The game wasnt’ centered around the cash shop. My point has always been times and expectations change. The cost of making games has changed. The competition has change. Players expectations have changed.

Saying I don’t like the cash shop because a ten year old game didn’t center as much around the cash shop and was still successful is irrelevant, unless you can prove that game with the same strategy would have made it today.

Yeah, that is of-course also a way to dismiss the discussion. It’s just that I am used to something and that is it.

That is to easy. I have given many reasons why I think it’s bad. It can also be used in a not so bad way.

That cash-shops are being used a lot does not make them good. In fact they already have a bad name for P2W. They where used a lot and where all P2W, it took a while before everybody started to dislike them for that.

I am just saying that cosmetics cash-shops can be just as bad, especially in a game like GW2. The fact that it’s being used a lot does not mean it’s good.

Vayne.8563:

@ Devata

Except for HOT which many people complained didn’t offer content for them. There are people who play neither the HOT zones, nor raid. So if they were in small guilds, what did HOT offer them? The revenant and an elite spec?

To that end, WvW players didn’t think HoT delivered that much either.

Expansions, as I’ve said many times, don’t guarantee a lot of content for everyone. They simply guarantee some content.

There’s also the issue of price for the content that’s available which a lot of people seemed to have an issue with.

Just having an expansion is not the answer. In fact, some MMOs have been killed by expansions.

Obviously an expansion does not guarantee good content, nor does LS. Nothing does. However an expansion-based approach should give you the time and ability to just focusing on making quality content. Not content that is compromised because of you having to get people to buy stuff from the cash-shop.

maddoctor.2738:

You mean in the 3 quarters before HoT. Well you should then see if those sales aligned up. I don’t think the sales where active during the full 3 quarters but don’t know for sure.

I attached an image with clearer quarters. Let’s find out what happened at each quarter so this mystery is solved once and for all!

The lowest point of the game’s revenue (pre HoT) was at Q4 2014 which was around the end of LS2. Then it started going up with a bigger bump on Q2 2015, then declined again until Q3 2015, then HoT was released. So we have to see what happened at Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2015. There was no content released during those 3 quarters at all, so let’s see the Sales!

Q1: January 2015-March 2015
HoT was first announced on January 2015
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/announcing-the-first-guild-wars-2-expansion/
there was also a massive 75% sale:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/this-weekend-guild-wars-2-at-pax-south-an-unprecedented-sale-and-double-xp-for-all/
and gem store sales:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/pact-fleet-survival-pack-black-lion-chest-update-and-end-of-season-sale-continues-in-the-gem-store/
character slot sales:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/weekend-sale-character-slot-expansions/
and March sales, one new item discounted every day:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/march-daily-sales-in-the-gem-store/
and another 75% off sale!
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/pax-east-is-coming/
There are more but I’ll stop here as we can clearly see Q1 2015 had the expansion reveal AND loads of sales (including 75% off 2 times). It didn’t really need new content to keep it up.

Still, between the 3 quarters, Q1 was the weakest in revenue.

Let’s go to Q2 2015 where the little bump is.
First we got the LS2 complete pack:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/new-hairstyles-rainbow-unicorn-finisher-living-world-season-2-complete-pack-and-stronghold-beta-sale-in-the-gem-store/
so players who missed LS2 could buy it (with gems) and experience it.
and…
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/guild-wars-2-heart-of-thorns-is-available-for-pre-purchase/
Pre-purchase of HoT started towards the end of Q2 2015 which is probably why we got that bump. It’s not surprising that there was that bump there during pre-purchase, is it? I wonder though, was that bump smaller than expected because they refunded everyone who paid during their 2 massive sales?

For all players who purchased the Guild Wars 2 core game from our website and registered it between January 23, 2015 and June 16, 2015 in anticipation of Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns, we will automatically refund what you paid for the core game should you decide to pre-purchase Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns from our website or in-game store any time through July 31, 2015.

So those who bought the game during those two massive 75% sales got refunded… Are refunds showing on the revenue?

And finally we got to Q3 2015, the final quarter before HoT release
First as every year an anniversary sale:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/anniversary-sale/
and some other minor gem store promotions.

I agree that the game-sales could be a reason and maybe the cash-shop sales a little. On the other hand, there are sales all the time.

As far as I know the pre-order is being counted at the quarter of the launch (not 100% sure, could not find an official statement, answer should be in one of the NCsoft streams I think) so they can also not make a difference.

Then the S2 pack. Well those that where active did not have to buy it because they already had it. That means it was mostly interesting for new or returning player, now what was a reason for players to return or start playing? The only news there was, was the expansion. So even if S2 pack sales where a reason, it was mainly because of the expansion announcement.

This is an element you seem to forget. Obviously much of the money in those quarters came from the cash-shop, and the game sales as that are the only way they could make money. But don’t forget that the news of the expansion might have been a big driver for those sales.

It’s hard to really proof the one of the other, but only for Q1 you have a big list of sales that could drive the sales even without the expansion-news. Q2 and Q3 where not that different from your average quarter.

AHAHAH I am sorry , have you thought what you are typing ?
(as usual 17 months now ?)
You try to apease to different ppl …using diferend ways of thinking (dont steal my job plz:P)

Devata.6589:

There are also other ways. Honestly I would not be surprised as Blizzard is planning to move to a system as I am asking for with WoW. They already made it so you can pay the sub with in-game gold (not sure how much gold and how hard to get that) and are moving their expansion-releases closer to each other.

Ppl are FORCED play online for 6-8 hours a day for 13-16 days to gather those 100.000 -110.000 gold and get the sub free (and the price goes up in most servers)
And they have cash shop too (without the ability to buy them with gold)

Your idea … HAH !
My idea …. say that you idea …. is lame :P

Devata.6589:

Then there is Overwatch from the same developer. That game has an initial sale, it does have a cash-shop but only sells loot-boxes you also get in-game. Now I do think cosmetics are bad in a MMO because it’s an element of the game, it’s part of the RPG experience, but considering Overwatch is a shooter that is not really a thing. However the way I see it, their long-term plans to earn money is not the cash-shop or the game (as there will be no expansions) but E-sports and merchandise. An approach I love because it has zero negative impact on the game itself.

The cash shop and and a portion of those money will go/funnel the E-sport .
The company looses money when they have to rent/organise the place for the next tournament and give away the rpize money to the winners .
They will get some money when the attract new players (buy once the account) and theres a humogous chance they will keep playing and spending MORE real money compared to the price of the box in the longterm via the gemstore

Edi:
You have to get rid of this silly normal human mentality of :
‘’i was right’’
‘’i told you so’’
a) So you will feel right with yourself and wash your hands ’’clean’’ and walk away (just like the PvPers) (otherwise i will be your dark-chocolate with a bitter taste , so you wont feel this human satifaction)
Regadles of your silly predictions that ppl want to buy more x-pack , rather that using the gemstore ….
Even those 3m F2P created accounts only a minority buy it and the company is looking new ways to entice ppl to buy them ..

b) And when new games will be realeased , you will link theses silly threads with those silly predictions that ppl love to buy the x-packs and try to boss around their forums to become a Diva (dont steal my job)

Just like you linked me the thread of the Crysis 2 forums ….with the comment :
There wont be a 3rd crysis if the game dont focus on the hardcores …otherwise if will fail like Castlevania…(and 2 other games) , rather than succed such as this…this.this…

If you dont have ideas to allure those 3 million F2P account , about how to buy the x-pack ….dont talk so highly about you or your predictions , while you pretent to ‘’know something’’ , in this 4th Devata megathread , otherwise i will w8 you next year to start all over again :P

@Devata

There was a time when people didn’t have vaccinations and lots of people died. It wasn’t that companies didn’t believe in cash shops, so much as cash shops weren’t at that time shown to be an efficient way to make money. There was never a time when companies didn’t want to make money, at least, no time I can think of.

You know, I’m an older guy. I remember a lot of things about gaming from the beginning of games, and there have been a lot of changes to gaming over the years. I remember a time before there were hint books but I’d never say there was a time companies didn’t believe in them. They hadn’t thought of them yet. I remember before hint books, Sierra had a 900 number hint line that you could call and pay by the minute. Game companies didn’t used to not believe in stuff.

It used to cost less to make games, they weren’t as big a business and there was less competition. Anyone who starts a sentence was there was a time is probably going to be wrong. People always talk about how great the old days where, while ignoring that fact that there was plenty wrong with this days too, or that things about those days were hidden behind closed doors and now we’re out in the open.

It doesn’t matter if you personally like cash shops or not, because there are too many people who simply don’t care. Pay to win is a different matter, but cash shops in and of themselves, it’s normalized now, whether or not there was a time when they weren’t.

And this industry changes very very quickly. There was a time when people thought castor oil was a good treatment for being sick but I wouldn’t want to go back to it.

Point 1. Games are more competitive now.
Point 2. Games cost more to make now.
Point 3. Games out now have to compete with other games.
Point 4. Games have serious investors now who need to be fed.

It would be interesting to see the entire game budget for Guild Wars 1 and compare it to the entire game budget for Guild Wars 2.

It doesn’t matter what happened 10 years ago, because there’s simply no guarantee the same formula would work today. And as it stands, you’d have to not only be willing to take the risk it will work, but you’d have to convince investors it would work.

And even subscription games now generally have cash shops. You’re fighting a losing battle here and your main points are they used to be able to do it and that you don’t like it.

It’s not a strong platform.

Vayne.8563:

And even subscription games now generally have cash shops. You’re fighting a losing battle here and your main points are they used to be able to do it and that you don’t like it.

It’s not a strong platform.

Well then devs have to move away from using game systems that only exist to keep people playing and p2w type items in the cash shop and make good repeatable content that players will want to keep playing and buying purely convenience and cosmetic items in the cash shop.

morrolan.9608:

Vayne.8563:

And even subscription games now generally have cash shops. You’re fighting a losing battle here and your main points are they used to be able to do it and that you don’t like it.

It’s not a strong platform.

Well then devs have to move away from using game systems that only exist to keep people playing and p2w type items in the cash shop and make good repeatable content that players will want to keep playing and buying purely convenience and cosmetic items in the cash shop.

MMOs have always used game systems that exist only to keep people playing at least themepark ones did. Even if that mechanism was having a rare boss spawn once every three days randomly. They didn’t make that mechanic to make the game fun. They made it to keep people playing. It’s just how things are. Today there are other ways to keep people playing.

The more competition there is, the more you have to compete.

morrolan.9608:

Sykper.6583:

Vayne’s correct.

Cash Shops or variants of ‘Paying for extra content’ are the future of current gaming. I would even extend it outside of MMOs or Mobile Games, some recent shooters have iterations like Loot Boxes that have a similar reward system. Currently playing Titanfall 2, I can get random cosmetic rewards on a whim, but they recently introduced new ‘Prime’ Titans that I can pay a bit of cash for that give me an alternative, different cosmetic look to my Titan which carries different voiceovers and executions.

We are getting away from Subs folks.

I’d dispute that. In fact I would say the PC market is somewhat pushing back against the practice. The decline in GW2, the severe pushback against the current swtor xpac which is blatant price gouging in this vein.

Its all leading to more niche games which do away with these anti consumer practices. Enhancing this will be Amazon’s platform which will make it easier and easier to develop online games with good netcode and synergies with social media.

You can dispute it if you like but I’ve not seen major boycotts against cash shops. I’ve seen groups of people who don’t like them and I don’t believe they’re some kind of majority in any way shape or form. Because younger people are being trained that cash shops is the norm. They’ll simply just wait you guys out. There’s no reason not to.

My kids aren’t 15. They’re in their 20s. They have plenty of friends and they all expect to spend money on games after they buy them. Pretty much like I expect to overspend on popcorn and candy when I go to a movie. That’s a complete ripoff to me but hasn’t changed in my lifetime.

There’s always going to be resistance to change, but change still occurs.

Devata has been saying all along this game would do better if it abandoned the cash shop and just made expansions, with no real evidence of it. I’m saying there’s no real evidence of it.

Do I love cash shops? No, I don’t. But I do acknowledge games are harder/more expensive to make than ever, and they have to be funded. So I look for games were cash shops aren’t the game itself, and you can play and buy stuff when you like…games like Guild Wars 2.

And by games I’m pretty much just talking about MMORPGs. Boxed games don’t generally have a cash shop, but then, I play them a lot less and end up paying more per hour anyway.

Devata.6589:

So luckily I also see approaches that are not going for a cash-shop focus approach.

Single player games no longer use the expansion model although that worked very well in the past. They now use DLCs, and DLCs are not expansions, they are usually tiny and almost never justify their cost. Even worse, companies make DLCs as requirements for other DLCs, so in order to experience DLC 2, you must first buy/play DLC 1. The average gamer needs to understand that DLC is probably the worst business model in the industry for single player games. And you seem happy that many games continue to follow that model… B2P in our era equals DLC, not expansions, and DLCs are completely anti-consumer. Players everywhere need to STOP BUYING DLC.

Now that single player is out, let’s see the effects of expansions on multiplayer games.
Just see at how much of a disadvantage someone is in PVP or WvW without owning HoT and no access to elite specializations. How much at a disadvantage someone is for not having HoT in fractals, or for their builds because they can’t access HoT stats. Enough said. Expansions fracture player bases, expansions are artificially forced on players.

As for cash shops, there are multiple versions. I hate cash shops that offer any kind of advantage to the player who uses them. I hate cash shops that offer items that are more powerful than those found in-game, mounts that are faster, weapons that deal more damage, armor/outfits that offer stat boosts and so on. Those kinds of cash shops I despise with a passion and I don’t want to touch a game with such cash shops ever again.

And finally on the idea of grind due to the cash shop:
You are saying that cash shops lead to grind, I disagree completely. Cash shops that allow you to buy items with gold lead to grind, if you could only buy cash shop items with cash then you couldn’t grind for them, could you? The problem with the so called grind in GW2 isn’t with the cash shop but with the gold→gem conversion. Games that have simple cosmetic cash shops do not feel grind-y (you can’t grind to get those items), offer no advantage of abilities/skills, and do not fracture the player base on multiple types of content. It’s the most consumer friendly approach

Killthehealersffs.8940:

Devata.6589:

There are also other ways. Honestly I would not be surprised as Blizzard is planning to move to a system as I am asking for with WoW. They already made it so you can pay the sub with in-game gold (not sure how much gold and how hard to get that) and are moving their expansion-releases closer to each other.

Ppl are FORCED play online for 6-8 hours a day for 13-16 days to gather those 100.000 -110.000 gold and get the sub free (and the price goes up in most servers)
And they have cash shop too (without the ability to buy them with gold)

Your idea … HAH !
My idea …. say that you idea …. is lame :P

That is not my idea, In fact I would not do this because it could also mean people feel the pressure to grind gold with all the negative effects I mentioned here.

Having said that, by having that option to get play-time without a sub and moving expansions closer together they do shift some of the focus (from an income perspective) of the sub towards the expansions. That is a step into the direction that I am talking about here yes. I do not know how much further they will go with that, but it is a step into that direction.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

Devata.6589:

Then there is Overwatch from the same developer. That game has an initial sale, it does have a cash-shop but only sells loot-boxes you also get in-game. Now I do think cosmetics are bad in a MMO because it’s an element of the game, it’s part of the RPG experience, but considering Overwatch is a shooter that is not really a thing. However the way I see it, their long-term plans to earn money is not the cash-shop or the game (as there will be no expansions) but E-sports and merchandise. An approach I love because it has zero negative impact on the game itself.

The cash shop and and a portion of those money will go/funnel the E-sport .
The company looses money when they have to rent/organise the place for the next tournament and give away the rpize money to the winners .
They will get some money when the attract new players (buy once the account) and theres a humogous chance they will keep playing and spending MORE real money compared to the price of the box in the longterm via the gemstore

I don’t claim to know the details on how to generate money with e-sports. But I do think companies can make money with it by sponsorships and so on. I do not think it just cost them money. At least when they are able to get it popular. Similar to how normal sporting-events raise a lot of money.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

b) And when new games will be realeased , you will link theses silly threads with those silly predictions that ppl love to buy the x-packs and try to boss around their forums to become a Diva (dont steal my job)

Just like you linked me the thread of the Crysis 2 forums ….with the comment :
There wont be a 3rd crysis if the game dont focus on the hardcores …otherwise if will fail like Castlevania…(and 2 other games) , rather than succed such as this…this.this…

If you dont have ideas to allure those 3 million F2P account , about how to buy the x-pack ….dont talk so highly about you or your predictions , while you pretent to ‘’know something’’ , in this 4th Devata megathread , otherwise i will w8 you next year to start all over again :P

You still find it hard to swallow that I also had that Crysis 4 prediction correct? There where a few more, like how I predicted that the sub-based model for all those MMO’s would fail.

But if it does give you a good feeling to know I can also be right, here is a prediction I had wrong. Also for Final Fantasy XV I said the sub-model would not work. However it looks like that one is doing just fine.

I am not sure what mega threads, but I don’t see a reason to make another thread about this. In a way this was my closing thread for this subject because I talked about it so much. I might comment in some other threads but should not be a lot.

About how to get expansions to sale again. I think it will be really hard, but I did make a suggestion for that. The only way I can see that happen is if they make it and market it as basically being GW3. But they then also better get that right, else there is really no way to recover from it if they don’t manage to make something that people indeed see as GW3 (or again have something that means people leave in the first half year. And you know, a grindy game will do that).

Can we a get a cliff notes version lol.

Vayne.8563:

It doesn’t matter if you personally like cash shops or not, because there are too many people who simply don’t care. Pay to win is a different matter, but cash shops in and of themselves, it’s normalized now, whether or not there was a time when they weren’t.

And this industry changes very very quickly. There was a time when people thought castor oil was a good treatment for being sick but I wouldn’t want to go back to it.

Point 1. Games are more competitive now.
Point 2. Games cost more to make now.
Point 3. Games out now have to compete with other games.
Point 4. Games have serious investors now who need to be fed.

It would be interesting to see the entire game budget for Guild Wars 1 and compare it to the entire game budget for Guild Wars 2.

It doesn’t matter what happened 10 years ago, because there’s simply no guarantee the same formula would work today. And as it stands, you’d have to not only be willing to take the risk it will work, but you’d have to convince investors it would work.

And even subscription games now generally have cash shops. You’re fighting a losing battle here and your main points are they used to be able to do it and that you don’t like it.

It’s not a strong platform.

I will say this again, not sure why I have to repeat this for over 3 years. I talk about a FOCUS on the cash-shop. Not every cash-shop is the same. If GW2 had a cash-shop as we see in WoW everything would be fine. But it does not because GW2 is focusing on the cash-shop to generate income. Blizzard is not.

When you say “Pay to win is a different matter” you are missing a thing. Those cash-shop worked as well and where used a lot. Until people start to get more and more irritated by them.

A cash-shop is bad when it has a negative effect on the game itself. Something you do see when companies focus on the cash-shop to generate it’s money. In a game like GW2 a cosmetic cash-shop like we have here is just as bad as a P2W one. In fact for GW2 it might be even worse because GW2 has such a huge focus on cosmetics. Any MMORPG does, but GW2 shines in this perspective. People don’t use the nickname fashion wars for nothing.

It will be a matter of time before people get frustrated of these shops as well, just as they did with the P2W shops.

Yes things changed. But in multiple ways what means that one positive might level out one negative.
For example:

Point 1. Games are more competitive now. (Well I don’t even think this is true. as long as we have Internet there have been competitive games)
Point 2. Games cost more to make now. (Yes, while the money you can make with them has also increased)
Point 3. Games out now have to compete with other games. (True, so quality should also be good or people might go for another game.)
Point 4. Games have serious investors now who need to be fed. (Same as point 3)

maddoctor.2738:

Devata.6589:

So luckily I also see approaches that are not going for a cash-shop focus approach.

Single player games no longer use the expansion model although that worked very well in the past. They now use DLCs, and DLCs are not expansions, they are usually tiny and almost never justify their cost. Even worse, companies make DLCs as requirements for other DLCs, so in order to experience DLC 2, you must first buy/play DLC 1. The average gamer needs to understand that DLC is probably the worst business model in the industry for single player games. And you seem happy that many games continue to follow that model… B2P in our era equals DLC, not expansions, and DLCs are completely anti-consumer. Players everywhere need to STOP BUYING DLC.

Now that single player is out, let’s see the effects of expansions on multiplayer games.
Just see at how much of a disadvantage someone is in PVP or WvW without owning HoT and no access to elite specializations. How much at a disadvantage someone is for not having HoT in fractals, or for their builds because they can’t access HoT stats. Enough said. Expansions fracture player bases, expansions are artificially forced on players.

~

“They now use DLCs, and DLCs are not expansions”
No but in many ways a season pas is. In games where you have maps a DLC is usually one or 3 maps. A season pas gives you multiple DLC’s what combines to something similar to an expansion.

Sure there are still a few negatives about that approach. Look for example at Battlefield 1, it had two expansions that did not only introduce new maps but basically a new subject / theme. That is something you often miss with DLC’s. But other then that season passes are pretty much expansions.

“Now that single player is out, let’s see the effects of expansions on multiplayer games.”
Same is true for cash-shops, normals DLC (if we do not see that as an expansion) or a sub.

Cash-shop always take something from the game, so you are missing that. In GW2 that is mainly the best cosmetics what removes the joy of going for them in-game. DLC’s have the same effect as expansion, they remove a part of the game and sub take away time.

So the effect that you take something away is there in all the cases. The question is, what is best for the quality of the game.

maddoctor.2738:

And finally on the idea of grind due to the cash shop:
You are saying that cash shops lead to grind, I disagree completely. Cash shops that allow you to buy items with gold lead to grind, if you could only buy cash shop items with cash then you couldn’t grind for them, could you? The problem with the so called grind in GW2 isn’t with the cash shop but with the gold->gem conversion. Games that have simple cosmetic cash shops do not feel grind-y (you can’t grind to get those items), offer no advantage of abilities/skills, and do not fracture the player base on multiple types of content. It’s the most consumer friendly approach.

Cash-shop focus! And yes that is in relationship to GW2. Cash-shop focus does not have to lead to grind in a more general sense.

If I would have to find a way to describe the effect of cash-shop focus in a way that it is applyable to almost any game I think the term ‘frustrating’ would be best.

A cash-shop focus leads to frustration.

In a P2W shop the frustration is that you are getting unfairly killed because people simply have better weapons.

In a game where you can convert cash to in-game money and the other way around you will usually see that to get the items you would normally want, you need to grind a lot so that is frustrating.

But even if you take that away, the company needs to make money so is likely to still put best (looking) items into the cash-shop if they want to earn their money with the cash-shop. Then it is frustrating that you might complete all that hard content, but other people have way better stuff because they did just buy it. It’s removes the game-value from in-game items.

BTW, you say “ buy items with gold lead to grind”. Like I said, grind is in perspective to how GW2 implements it yes, and this is a big part of it, but it’s also the other way around. The fact that you can buy gold means the content will be created so you want to buy gold.. aka grindy. If there would be no good reason to buy the gold it would not make them enough money.

Games that focus on a cash-shop, and sell cosmetics but where you can not convert the currency might not be grindy, but still ‘frustrating’ or / and / by missing game-play.

But it is good to see that we both agree that in GW2, the cash-shop focus makes the game grindy.

Mylerian.9176:

Can we a get a cliff notes version lol.

Feel free to make one

Devata.6589:

Mylerian.9176:

Can we a get a cliff notes version lol.

Feel free to make one

Business model:
Gemstore bad
Expansions good

Just for grins and giggles, and for the ‘what it’s worth department’.

Massively OP’s Best of 2016 Awards: BEST MMORPG BUSINESS MODEL OF 2016

“Massively Overpowered’s end-of-the-year 2016 awards continue today with our award for Best MMORPG Business Model of 2016, which is a new award we’re doling out for the first time this year thanks to a proposal from reader strangesands. This award is intended to recognize a live MMORPG of any age that has demonstrated an exemplary business model specifically in 2016, regardless of its past performance. Don’t forget to cast your own vote in the just-for-fun reader poll at the very end!”

“The Massively OP staff pick for Best MMORPG Business Model of 2016 is…”

“GUILD WARS 2”

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Just for grins and giggles, and for the ‘what it’s worth department’.

What I find interesting is that there are no B2P MMO’s that sell XPac’s but have no store, either on that list or anywhere else. And yet, according to the OP, such a model would be best not only for him but for ANet. Guess he “knows” better than anyone who is actually in the business.

Also fwiw, I would have voted for ESO over GW2 despite the DLC costing money and ANet offering some for cost/some for free … except that ESO just introduced gamble boxes.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Devata.6589:

Mylerian.9176:

Can we a get a cliff notes version lol.

Feel free to make one

Business model:
Gemstore bad
Expansions good

So the same thing they have been lamely bleating from time immemorial every chance they get. Thanks.

@Devata

If Guild Wars 2 had a cash shop like they do in WoW, there would be no Guild Wars 2. It would be gone. It would be dead. Because not every player spends money in the cash shop, we know that from specific posts, but everyone who plays WoW pays a sub. So you either charge everyone every single month, or you have a cash shop to make up the difference. Those are your options and those are your only options.

So let’s say that Guild Wars 2 had a sub and a less intrusive cash shop. That would mean it would have to get $15 from every player every month. How did that work out for TSW, SWToR and ESO? ALl of them were forced to go free to play. Every single one of them. TSW never really recovered. By starting with a subscription., they chased away a good percentage of their potential player base.

SWTOR had a terrible start and ended up firing a large percentage of their staff, either a third or half, I keep confusing the number with TSW. ESO probably did a bit better, but still underperformed and was forced to go free to play.

AFAIK there are no games that don’t charge a sub that don’t have a more intrusive cash shop. You think expansions can cover that, but it was far faster/easier to make a Guild Wars 1 expansion than it was to make a Guild Wars 2 expansion. We know this because the devs have said so.

Just the idea that Guild Wars 1 was largely instanced and content was developed for exactly x amount of players with no scaling and no random people wandering by makes it a much easier game to develop. That it was pathed made it much easier to develop. Guild Wars Prophecies has 209 quests at launch, and one starting area. Guild Wars 2 had five starting areas, five races and over 1500 dynamic events, plus far more of it was voiced, which is very expensive.

Anet could not put out an expansion every year, cash shop or no cash shop. They’d have to mostly depend on box sales and for today’s that is simply not going to be enough.

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

Vayne.8563:

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

That’s because @Devata believes at the core of his being that ANet “could” do it.

Devata.6589:

Sure there are still a few negatives about that approach.

Please don’t tell me that you like Season Passes. Just don’t. The worst thing that has ever happened in gaming is the Season Pass where you pre-buy a bunch of random DLCs together, a bunch of DLCs that you don’t even know what they will contain or if they will interest you. Paid Season Passes and DLC need to die. It’s the first time I’ve ever seen someone say that they like Season Passes.

So the effect that you take something away is there in all the cases. The question is, what is best for the quality of the game.

Remove cosmetics, not content, that’s the best for the quality of a game. With an expansion you remove content, with a cosmetic cash shop you remove some cosmetics. It’s an easy choice for me.

A cash-shop focus leads to frustration.

And being forced to buy an expansion to get access to higher level caps, better/different gear stats, more powerful skills and abilities is not frustrating?

Which one is more frustrating?
a) You cannot compete with others because they have the expansion and are objectively better than you at beating the game, and they have access to more content than you do.
b) They have a shinny that you don’t have.

I’d take b) any time. Not to mention how expensive expansions are and you can only get the complete package. For example, let’s say I want the elite specs to compete in PVP but don’t give a kitten about Raids or the Hot zones. I can’t buy just the elite specs. Expansions are expensive and limit your choice, they are all or nothing packages.

In a P2W shop the frustration is that you are getting unfairly killed because people simply have better weapons.

Note that expansions bring new skills (elite specs for example in GW2), you should know how FRUSTRATING it is to get killed in PVP by a Druid, a Tempest, and so on, while you don’t have access to those. The power creep is real with expansions and it’s not that bad in GW2 because at least here they don’t increase level caps here. But even here, expansions ARE a source of P2W frustration. Expansions are P2W by definition, a cash shop doesn’t need to be P2W.

In game where you can convert cash to in-game money and the other way around you will usually see that to get the items you would normally want, you need to grind a lot so that is frustrating.

And with an expansion model you don’t even have access to the content of the expansion to get the items you want. Without HoT I wouldn’t even dream of getting the rewards from the Raid, or the Bladed/Leystone armor skins for example.

Behellagh.1468:

Vayne.8563:

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

That’s because @Devata believes at the core of his being that ANet “could” do it.

Yeah, i know he/she does, but Anet has said they can’t. Devata’s reasoning is they did it before, but for all sorts of reasons, a modern day expansion is going to take a lot longer and cost much more money. That’s the long and short of it.

Someone should tell Devata that long-term goals are a staple of the MMO genre. It’s against MMO developers’ interests to give players the shiny as fast as they want. At least with cosmetics, the grind is a choice. I’ll settle for that over RNG-based grind, even in sub games. I remember trying for a tanking sword in a WotLK dungeon in order to be an off-tank as a secondary build. Despite ~40 runs, the thing dropped once and the drop was ninja’d. I’d much rather farm gold by doing whatever the kitten I want in GW2 to that.

Then there’s the thing where developers determine how much effort is cost-effective. The OP seems to believe that all of the cosmetics that are in the store would be in the game under his model. I’m considerably more realistic. I doubt (very much) an XPac-only business model would offer any more items via play than we currently see, and that’s even if XPac-only would generate comparable revenue, which I doubt.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Someone should tell Devata that long-term goals are a staple of the MMO genre. It’s against MMO developers’ interests to give players the shiny as fast as they want. At least with cosmetics, the grind is a choice. I’ll settle for that over RNG-based grind, even in sub games. I remember trying for a tanking sword in a WotLK dungeon in order to be an off-tank as a secondary build. Despite ~40 runs, the thing dropped once and the drop was ninja’d. I’d much rather farm gold by doing whatever the kitten I want in GW2 to that.

Then there’s the thing where developers determine how much effort is cost-effective. The OP seems to believe that all of the cosmetics that are in the store would be in the game under his model. I’m considerably more realistic. I doubt (very much) an XPac-only business model would offer any more items via play than we currently see, and that’s even if XPac-only would generate comparable revenue, which I doubt.

It’s not just Devata, really. People who feel really strongly about something, often inflate in their mind how many people feel the same. It’s why hard core players believe the game can’t survive without them. It’s why casual players believe HOT had lackluster sales because of them, it’s why dungeon runners think that things went south because they weren’t catered to, and it’s why Devata, who has very strong feelings about grind and cash shops, believes this game isn’t doing well. The stronger you believe something the more likely you are to believe that others must feel the same way. That’s just human nature.

I’ve made that mistake myself many times in the past, but I’ve learned from it. I now realize for every person who feels like I do, there are at least half a dozen who feel differently.

Devata feels strongly so the people who dislike the grind and gem store are obviously going to cause the game to take in his/her mind. But this isn’t about one person. It’s about human nature.

The odds are the lackluster numbers of the last two quarters has less to do with any one reason, and more to do with a myriad of reasons. Those who think like Devata, whatever percentage that is, will have some affect. Dungeon Runners who left when HoT launched, will have some affect. Small guilds who can’t afford to upgrade guild halls will have some affect. People who think HoT is too hard or too grindy will have some affect.

All together, those groups have a tremendous affect. It’s not any one thing. It’s that Anet managed to alienate large swathes of people, combined with a content drought, combined with pricing the expansion too high, combined with not giving an extra character slot.

No one thing is the reason HoT didn’t do as well as expected. They are contribute.

Well….this game is by no means a money milking game….seriously these guys make no attempts at draining our money. That being said, yes sometimes they annual can go to the lower millions, but thats fine. As for the future of the game….its very very bright. This game will go on for many years to come. The potential is very big.

“… Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.”
—Juvenal

Even if the store were to go (and it won’t), I doubt we’d see the volume of skins we see in the store as in game rewards. With store skins, it’s individual items or sets designed to drive sales this week/month. There’s a business reason to pump that stuff out.

The business reason to produce skins tied to content is throttled by the speed at which content can be produced. When the content is produced, the rewards are produced and that’s that. Maybe once or twice in the life of the game, maybe not, rewards get added after the fact. I remember in GW, ANet added all-quest completion chests to UW/FoW). In fact, the new FoW/UW rewards were put in when GW was on maintenance mode, iirc. As long as new content is being produced, new rewards are going to go there, not into old content.

Vayne.8563:

The odds are the lackluster numbers of the last two quarters has less to do with any one reason, and more to do with a myriad of reasons. Those who think like Devata, whatever percentage that is, will have some affect. Dungeon Runners who left when HoT launched, will have some affect. Small guilds who can’t afford to upgrade guild halls will have some affect. People who think HoT is too hard or too grindy will have some affect.

All together, those groups have a tremendous affect. It’s not any one thing. It’s that Anet managed to alienate large swathes of people, combined with a content drought, combined with pricing the expansion too high, combined with not giving an extra character slot.

No one thing is the reason HoT didn’t do as well as expected.

Devata, this is what you should have said at the beginning if you wanted to be taken seriously on an empirical level (which you so deeply appear to want). You noted somewhere, “why should I have to summarize other opinions?” – to me that indicates that you’re simply ignoring potentially confounding variables. Vayne pretty much did it here without taking too long or overselling a single point.

A few people have touched on this, but I think it merits greater discussion: NCSoft/ANet seem uninterested in marketing this game. Granted, I got into GW2 after HoT launched, so I have completely missed out on whatever advertising blitz that may have occurred. I also acknowledge that the game is old, and conventional wisdom might say that we’re past the point of a sincere marketing strategy now. That being said, this game is still moving forward, and I believe what I love about it still distinguishes it from every other game out there. There’s still something to market if you still want to sell more of this game.

I heard nothing – absolutely nothing – in the US about GW2 outside of Dulfy when I decided to try the free core game a few months ago, and then bought into HoT shortly thereafter. I wouldn’t have even considered GW2 if I wasn’t so sorely disappointed in SWtoR at the time.

I did start seeing some banner ads for GW2 after I actually bought HoT and ran a ton of GW2 google searches and wiki browsing. What I saw was utterly dumbfounding: you all remember this ad for GW2? There’s a thread on this ad already, with its detractors and defenders.

I think this ad is terribly, terribly misguided. Sadly, I also think it’s emblematic of how those at the helm of this game see their own product. The non-game footage part is just…. dramatic-type music with a voiceover trying to make these disparate scenes seem epic. GW2’s particular artistic look and dynamic game world, which I believe set it apart from other products, are not meaningfully revealed in the brief moment of game-like scenery we see at the end. And instead of the Pact, the Legions, or even the Orders, all we get in that scene is this huge melee of all this hodgepodge happening. It looks like any other shiny/nonsensical/Asia-Pacific moneygrabber out there, and the ad itself displays that region of the world’s unfortunate mass-media habit of preferring spectacle at the expense of telling a compelling and coherent narrative.

If this is pretty much the perspective from which they plan on selling GW2, I fear for the future of the game. I’d have to find advertising records and try to match them with the ups and downs in the data provided, but as any marketer will tell you, ROI on advertising is notoriously slippery to observe with certainty. That being said, I just wonder if the marketing for GW2 contributed meaningfully to the declines in numbers.

First of all, Sorry for the late reaction. Have been busy.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

You didnt tell me how to sell the x-pack ..

What you mean, how to sell it? I said they should market it as GW3 if they want another opportunity to get more people where we are now. So I do not understand you question.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

Once again theres 3 millions F2P accounts THAT DONT HAVE THE OPTION TO CHANGE GOLD FOR THE GEMS …SO NO1 IS RUSHING THEM TO GET THE COSTUMES AND THEEY DONT HAVE THE DEASESE (ppl ‘’feel forced’’ to grind gold and buy the costume NOWNOWNOW)

No but they are then left with unrewarding content, because many of those nice rewards have moved to the cash-shop. Sure, not everybody is into cosmetics so if you are one of those then it might be less of a problem. But the best GW2 has to offer for you then is WvW, and if I am correct you need to get to level 60 to unlock that. I can imagine many people get bored before that. When most of us started playing servers where filled with people, many people where leveling. That also increase the enjoyment, but that is much lower now.
Anyway, I am not here to address the F2P approach. It is not an approach I would have gone for, so why should I have to tell you how to get those people to buy the game (not the expansion, the game!). So your question, how to get F2P players to buy the game should be addressed to Anet, not to me.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

Use your predictions or your maths (like einstein) to give me the solution/future

If you mean, how can you earn enough money with the B2P model. Luckily for you the calculation for that is already in the Excel. While that is obviously just a calculation based on the numbers we have.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

Edit: You are simply arguing with vayne and mad about what is ’’right’’ and talk ‘’general stuff’’ so the conversations go on in circles and the thread stays in the first page .

The conversation with Vayne is indeed going into circles, I give you that. I don’t care for it to be on the first page. 3 days after I posted it, it went to the 3th page and I forgot about it but later noticed somebody commented it and so I answer. I am sorry for answering people who comment in a thread I post :s You want me to ignore you? Just let me know.
Not to mention that mad said he would update the numbers every month, so there would not even be need for me, even if I wanted to.
Honestly, I rather see the people simply talking about the long-term numbers in general that only having this discussion with me about the cash-shop focus. But when people comment to me, I react back, later (like now) or sooner.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

if ppl didnt agree with me , the thread would be dead

Lol, in the OP I already said most people who were still on the forums would likely NOT agree with me. The main reasons these types of threads are up a longer time is because many people clearly are interested in those numbers. (Not so much the cash-shop focus discussion). That is also why we see a thread about the quarterly reports almost every time they get released.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Just for grins and giggles, and for the ‘what it’s worth department’.

Massively OP’s Best of 2016 Awards: BEST MMORPG BUSINESS MODEL OF 2016

“Massively Overpowered’s end-of-the-year 2016 awards continue today with our award for Best MMORPG Business Model of 2016, which is a new award we’re doling out for the first time this year thanks to a proposal from reader strangesands. This award is intended to recognize a live MMORPG of any age that has demonstrated an exemplary business model specifically in 2016, regardless of its past performance. Don’t forget to cast your own vote in the just-for-fun reader poll at the very end!”

“The Massively OP staff pick for Best MMORPG Business Model of 2016 is…”

“GUILD WARS 2”

Nice, but it’s just a price by some of their readers. Not really anything objective. Do you know who all won the Nobel price of piece? A few deserved it but I for sure would not be in that list.

Objectively from a financial viewpoint we have seen dropping results so in that perspective their current model is not successful.

I also checked the site and did notice a few strange things. It’s a price for a business model, but is awarded to a game? That is like an award for best brand car, and then selecting a specific car instead of a brand. GW2 has a cash-shop model maybe in combination with a B2P model (depending how you define it). There are many games with that model.
Then the first reaction they posted on the site starts with. “Andrew Ross (@dengarsw): Guild Wars 2’s buy-to-play model especially stands out” Well, it’s great that Andrew loves the B2P model, I do to as all you know. It is what made GW1 (and so GW2) big. But it’s not what GW2 is implementing. So it’s getting credits for something it does not have. It is getting credits for what I am asking here.

“It feels the most fair still. I dislike the cash shop that often comes with games using this model, but as long as it sticks to cosmetics over lockboxes, I’m fine with it.” That is a personal opinion and really depends on your perspective. When you are not into hunting down cosmetics in game that that is fine, else it sucks just as hard as a P2W cash-shop. In other MMO’s my main way of playing was hunting down such items (mini’s, ranger-pets, skins, toys, mounts). In GW2 that part was completely destroyed (well turned into a grind), luckily there was WvW so I spend a lot of time doing that or just doing things with the guild. WvW was not negative effected by the cash-shop so looking from that perspective I can understand somebody might be fine with it. Just as that people who don’t care for combat might be fine with a P2W cash-shop.

Another person also comment on this “But it’s given away several chapters of content as well as the base game now, and the cash shop is entirely ignorable in a way that simply cannot be said of other F2P and B2P hybrid models. (Classic Guild Wars could defeat it in a duel, but it hardly seems fair to include a maintenance mode game in these lists!)”
That it is ignorable is true, that that can’t be said for other models is false. It are games, games are optional. Everything is ignorable. And in a P2W game you can still play without buying weapons. I sometimes played some shooter with friends. Can’t remember the name but it was P2W (best weapons were sold for cash). That did mean you had a disadvantage but if you were fine with that you could just ignore it. You could still win.
What is also interesting to note here is that he says GW1’s model was better. You know, the B2P model I talk about here.
That is also the thing, the fact that other models (and implementation of them) are worse does not mean your model is great. It might be the best of what there is, but that does not mean it’s great.
The model I promote here is currently not being used by any big MMO. Funny enough that model is mentioned twice in the comments about GW2. That does say something if you ask me.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Just for grins and giggles, and for the ‘what it’s worth department’.

What I find interesting is that there are no B2P MMO’s that sell XPac’s but have no store, either on that list or anywhere else. And yet, according to the OP, such a model would be best not only for him but for ANet. Guess he “knows” better than anyone who is actually in the business.

Also fwiw, I would have voted for ESO over GW2 despite the DLC costing money and ANet offering some for cost/some for free … except that ESO just introduced gamble boxes.

This ‘they know better’. You know, those in the business have been trying to put out MMO’s with the P2P model the last 10 years al almost all failed. After WoW only FINAL FANTASY XIV was able to implement a P2P model and maintain it while many, many, many did try and failed.

Many people did see that would not work, but the people in the business did not see it.

Not so long ago they all did not believe in the F2P / cash-shop model. A few companies used it and had success with it and now they all jump on that bandwagon.

And you think those people in the business have all the knowledge?

Honestly, those investors that make these decisions have no idea. They invest money in a lot of things and simply look at proven methods. They did see WoW making a lot of money with the P2P model and so massively jumped on that model. Only now, more as 10 years later they seem to finally understand that that model is not so great after all. (Not for them, not for their games, not now anyway)

Now they all jump on the cash-shop model, and they might very will switch to another model in the future once that has proven itself.

Honestly, thinking they know better is being foolish. They have proven to not knowing better.

If a game sells well, they invest money for a new release, but don’t even notice that while sales where good, reception was bad and so the next game will sell bad. It will be the bad sales of that next game that makes them stop investing for a new release.

Can I proof I am right or know better than them here? No, but I did proof I knew better than them with the Crysis example Killthehealersffs.8940 is referring to all the time. For those people a game is just an investment, but most of them don’t know anything about it. And because they provide them money, they usually have a lot to say about the payment-model.

Anyway, you keep believing in those people who have factually proven to not know, simply because they are in that business.

Vayne.8563:

@Devata
If Guild Wars 2 had a cash shop like they do in WoW, there would be no Guild Wars 2. It would be gone. It would be dead.

The numbers suggest different. Anyway, you are always asking for facts when somebody makes claims. You have made multiple claims in this thread where I asked for facts, so far you failed to give one. This is another claim where I am going to ask you to proof that. At least I have numbers who suggest something else.

Vayne.8563:

Because not every player spends money in the cash shop, we know that from specific posts, but everyone who plays WoW pays a sub.

So, not everybody pays money in the cash-shop in GW2. More people likely do, however if they had an expansion every year to 1,5 year (yes, of a good quality) most people would likely buy that and so pay money for the game anyway. You know, like they did with GW1.

Vayne.8563:

So you either charge everyone every single month, or you have a cash shop to make up the difference. Those are your options and those are your only options.

Or you sell an expansion every year to 1,5 year. Like GW1 did. You forgot that option.

Vayne.8563:

So let’s say that Guild Wars 2 had a sub and a less intrusive cash shop.

You are switching from subject again. Not talking about a P2P model. So let’s not.

Vayne.8563:

Just the idea that Guild Wars 1 was largely instanced and content was developed for exactly x amount of players with no scaling and no random people wandering by makes it a much easier game to develop. That it was pathed made it much easier to develop. Guild Wars Prophecies has 209 quests at launch, and one starting area. Guild Wars 2 had five starting areas, five races and over 1500 dynamic events, plus far more of it was voiced, which is very expensive.

Yeah, we did go by this already. GW2 is bigger, and so needs more people to develop. At the same time GW2 also has a bigger (possible) player base and so can earn much more. And if GW2 was able to keep those people over the longer run (what they now do not seem to be able to) they could keep financing that.

So the question is if the B2P model raises enough money to do so. We cannot proof this factually because it’s talking about another reality, but the numbers at least suggest it’s very well possible.

Vayne.8563:

Anet could not put out an expansion every year, cash shop or no cash shop. They’d have to mostly depend on box sales and for today’s that is simply not going to be enough.

If Anet focused on the expansion I am pretty sure they could be able to put out an expansion in 1 to 1,5 year.

Based on statements from Anet linked earlier in this post we already know HoT was mostly build within a year. So here you can not only not proof your statement, it can be proven wrong. Sure, how things went with HoT was far from ideal, suddenly making that switch. But if they could have planned that a little better things might have goon way better.

Vayne.8563:

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

That is how investments work. People first invest money to pay those things, then a product get released and they earn their payment back. You act as if this is impossible, what is funny as that would mean GW2 was impossible. Development of GW2 took about 5 years, in that time GW1 was being ignored and so did not make them a lot of money. However rent, insurance, electricity and employees where paid.

Because GW2 sold very well you would likely have enough overhead to not even need any new external investments but could use some of the profit of GW2 to pay the development of the first expansion. (If only they did that). Every next expansion, part of the income can then go for the development of the next expansion, the rest is profit. Its mind bubbling that I have to explain these type of things. Everybody understand this but you have been bringing this argument up for year and I keep saying this for year. Not sure why I even keep doing this. You simply do not want to understand.

Behellagh.1468:

Vayne.8563:

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

That’s because @Devata believes at the core of his being that ANet “could” do it.

I might be wrong. We do however know that their current approach was good for the first 1,5 year or so and then started to drop off more thenthey had hoped.

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

Vayne.8563:

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

That’s because @Devata believes at the core of his being that ANet “could” do it.

I might be wrong. We do however know that their current approach was good for the first 1,5 year or so and then started to drop off more thenthey had hoped.

Which doesn’t mean they can do it. They’re already said how long it takes them to make a single map, let alone a whole expansion. You’re just not willing to change with the times. You think what’s possible ten years ago in that climate is possible now. I find it extremely unlikely.

Elsewhere you talked about facts. The fact is, I didn’t come into this forum making a substantial claim, you did. Ergo I don’t need a single fact to refute something I believe to be untrue. And I have given many facts, that you ignore.

It’s a fact that the industry has changed. That there’s more competition and more free competition. Unless you’re willing to say this is not a fact.

It is my strong belief, I’ve certainly seen it mentioned enough, that making a game today is far more expensive than making on 10 years ago, at least as far as a AAA MMO goes. It may not be a fact, but just the price of voice acting in games alone now has gone through the roof.

It is a fact that we simply can’t know how Guild Wars 1 would do today. It’s not possible to know.

The problem is, you’re the one stating “facts” and drawing conclusions from those facts. In drawing those conclusions you’re ignoring:

1. The fact that the landscape has changed dramatically in the ten years since Guild Wars 1 was released.

2. That games are more expensive to make.

3. That a number of complaints have been address on these forums by large numbers of people that have nothing to do with the cash shop, and even the grind is only a minor complaint compared to many of the other complaints we’ve seen.

4. That Anet themselves have said straight out they can’t make expansions as fast as they made them for Guild Wars 1.

5. Fact: All four Guild Wars 1 titles had less quests than Guild Wars 2 had dynamic events at launch. I’ve said it many times. Because we were told by Anet that you need at least three times the number of DEs over quests, since you can’t guarantee people will run into them.

Now if I posted some stats and drew conclusions, I’d be required to defend those conclusions, but I’m not the one making claims here. I’m saying your claims have no evidence at all. Your evidence is low sales numbers. There’s no way to draw a why from it. No way at all. There’s no reason I should have to prove that, it’s self-evident.

@Killthehealersffs.8940

You always refer to my Crysis prediction example. Were I made that prediction against what the people in the business where doing (so who knew what they where doing according to some).

I just got this news hot off the press. http://crytek.com/news/crytek-outlines-future-plans-and-focuses-on-return-to-core-competencies

I figured it was worth to share it here, and specifically with you. Just to remind people that business can be wrong and some people on a forum can be right.

Remember Crysis at one point had an almost legendary status, we still got the meme But Can It Run Crysis? But even they can make mistakes as we can see.

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

Vayne.8563:

You say having a less intrusive cash shop is the answer, so if expansions cant’ be made as quickly, how are you planning on paying rent, insurance, electricity and 300 plus employees?

That’s because @Devata believes at the core of his being that ANet “could” do it.

I might be wrong. We do however know that their current approach was good for the first 1,5 year or so and then started to drop off more thenthey had hoped.

Didn’t want to resort to this. Air the dark dirty secrets of ArenaNet but if this doesn’t change your mind I don’t know what will. All you have to do is examine the audited annual reports from NCSOFT which breaks out the income and profit of their subsidiaries including ArenaNet.

Looking at the audited annual reports reveals an ugly truth. ArenaNet as an entity never made a profit from Guild Wars.

In 2005 GW sold 41,308 million KrW. ArenaNet only saw 10,608 million KrW of that and almost made a profit, their loss was only 168 million KrW.

In 2006 GW sold 52,560 million KrW. ArenaNet only saw 13,400 million KrW of that and their loss was 2,022 million KrW.

In 2007 GW sold 42,058 million KrW. ArenaNet only saw 12,020 million KrW of that and their loss was 2,975 million KrW.

In 2008 GW sold 26,228 million KrW. ArenaNet only saw 8,131 million KrW of that and their loss was 10,148 million KrW.

In 2009 GW sold 17,127 million KrW. ArenaNet only saw 5,254 million KrW of that and their loss was 21,658 million KrW.

ArenaNet had to pay off the development cost of GW just like an author or a band paying off their advance. And in 2009 they announced work on GW2. [sarcasm]It sure looks like that box expansion plan for GW really worked out for them.[/sarcasm] By the end of 2012, the last time ANet was broken out as it was “absorbed” into NC West Holdings along with NC Interactive and Carbine, ANet had liabilities, aka debt, of 128,000 million KrW. That’s the year GW2 sold 164,854 million KrW and ANet saw 68,000 million of that and actually had a profit of 28,000 million KrW.

This is part of the reason they decided that to maintain their B2P/no subscription approach, went with the cash shop.

Edit: This also makes the taking over of distribution by ANet for HoT a lot of sense so they could book more of that income without letting NC Interactive suck up a sizable cut.

What I find interesting about this isn’t the numbers, it’s the fact that this should have been the FIRST place anyone looking at financial data to establish a hypothesis about the state of the game should have went.

Well the audit reports aren’t as easily retrieved as the quarterly numbers are which only reveal game and regional sales and NCSOFT’s profit. In the early days they included some but they “simplified” their investor information over the years to the basic facts.

Devata.6589:

What you mean, how to sell it? I said they should market it as GW3 if they want another opportunity to get more people where we are now. So I do not understand you question.

Again you are not answering my question …
There are 3 million F2P games that refused to buy the x-pack
.The company is looking ways to entice those 3m F2P to buy the x-pack…
How they can do it ?
You have the maths and the Excell

Should they offer a Porsce if you buy the x-pack and play for 600 hours ?

Devata.6589:

No but they are then left with unrewarding content, because many of those nice rewards have moved to the cash-shop. Sure, not everybody is into cosmetics so if you are one of those then it might be less of a problem. But the best GW2 has to offer for you then is WvW, and if I am correct you need to get to level 60 to unlock that. I can imagine many people get bored before that. When most of us started playing servers where filled with people, many people where leveling. That also increase the enjoyment, but that is much lower now.
Anyway, I am not here to address the F2P approach. It is not an approach I would have gone for, so why should I have to tell you how to get those people to buy the game (not the expansion, the game!). So your question, how to get F2P players to buy the game should be addressed to Anet, not to me.

What rewards have been moved from the Core game to the cash shop ?
Dont use these silly round and round conversation to me plz :P
Lets be pro

You are making the claims that ppl love to pay 60 dollars and buy the x-pack .
Youare claiming that ppl feel forced to GRIND GOLD NOWNOWNBOW and that cause Burnout .
Youare making this silly threads , claiming that the population of GW1 bought the x-packs and they where happy , so they can try to replicate it here .
Where is your data ABOUT HOW TO ENTICE THOSE 3 MILLION TO PAY 60 DOLLARS ??
They cannot trade gold for gems, SO THEY ARE NOT FORCED TO GRIND THE ITEMS THE GEMSTORE !!!

Devata.6589:

If you mean, how can you earn enough money with the B2P model. Luckily for you the calculation for that is already in the Excel. While that is obviously just a calculation based on the numbers we have.

How can we entice 3 million F2P accounts to buy the x-pack , so the company gets 180 millions and they dont need the gemstore ???
Give ideas , about how to entice them and then remove the gemstore !!!

Devata.6589:

Killthehealersffs.8940:

if ppl didnt agree with me , the thread would be dead

Lol, in the OP I already said most people who were still on the forums would likely NOT agree with me. The main reasons these types of threads are up a longer time is because many people clearly are interested in those numbers. (Not so much the cash-shop focus discussion). That is also why we see a thread about the quarterly reports almost every time they get released.

These thread dont have anything to do about the qurter updates, but rather your are trying to push your futile ’’idea’’ 17 months now , that they should remove from the gemstore and sell more x-packs .
But you go round and round and use the words ‘’my predictions-my calcalations’’
I will feel a little bored to repeat the same conversations when the 2-years-next-x-pack shows up , so i am having my now , and gather some lost steam :P

Devata.6589:

@Killthehealersffs.8940

You always refer to my Crysis prediction example. Were I made that prediction against what the people in the business where doing (so who knew what they where doing according to some).

I just got this news hot off the press. http://crytek.com/news/crytek-outlines-future-plans-and-focuses-on-return-to-core-competencies

I figured it was worth to share it here, and specifically with you. Just to remind people that business can be wrong and some people on a forum can be right.

Remember Crysis at one point had an almost legendary status, we still got the meme But Can It Run Crysis? But even they can make mistakes as we can see.

You where linking me a threads at the 9th or 17th or 21th or 22th page , about you made a prediction that :
There wont be a crysis 3 , if the company dont catter to the hardcore, otherwise if will fail like Castlevania and other 2 games
If i am wrong , just link me your post :P

And ’’these’’ predictions you are making here, you will use them to pewpew in other video games forums :P
I know how ppl think :p
I have been ’’serving’’ since 14 , as healer , worthy/interesting/magnetic and not so worthy targets :P

Devata.6589:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Just for grins and giggles, and for the ‘what it’s worth department’.

Massively OP’s Best of 2016 Awards: BEST MMORPG BUSINESS MODEL OF 2016

Nice, but it’s just a price by some of their readers. Not really anything objective. Do you know who all won the Nobel price of piece? A few deserved it but I for sure would not be in that list.

Objectively from a financial viewpoint we have seen dropping results so in that perspective their current model is not successful.
I also checked the site and did notice a few strange things. It’s a price for a business model, but is awarded to a game? That is like an award for best brand car, and then selecting a specific car instead of a brand. GW2 has a cash-shop model maybe in combination with a B2P model (depending how you define it). There are many games with that model.

………………………………..
That is also the thing, the fact that other models (and implementation of them) are worse does not mean your model is great. It might be the best of what there is, but that does not mean it’s great.
The model I promote here is currently not being used by any big MMO. Funny enough that model is mentioned twice in the comments about GW2. That does say something if you ask me.

They should hire you to work for them ….
you know a lot better than the rest of them or their readers…
Why you limit yourself here 17 months now and you dont spread your wings to create a game ?

I am comfused….
How much round conversation you will do ?
You where saying in Vayne that the company was OK with the x-packs sold and that why they will aim to releases them in shorter period …
Should they sold more x-packs or not ….why you make a comment on Flesh that the data shows that it doesnt work , while you claim in Vayne thateverything is ok?

The ’’plans’’ of yours …a game that sells only x-packs and not a gemstore …..STILL HAVENT CONCUDE ABOUT HOW WE CAN PURSADE THE 3 MILLION F2P ACCOUNTS TO BUY THE X-PACKS …

Dont worry i will make these thread , so the rest of the community see your ‘’true self’’ :P
I will be your short verion ‘’into the depth of Devata mind’’
(wanna work as a security guard at a lesser madhouse with me … its fun :P
If you behave them with gently way , they will boot you from the child hospital to join them 24/7 )

Behellagh.1468:

Looking at the audited annual reports reveals an ugly truth. ArenaNet as an entity never made a profit from Guild Wars.

You should’ve said that in page 1. But really Anet made no profit from Guild Wars? That sounds extreme to be honest

It doesn’t surprise me that Guild Wars 1 wasn’t particularly profitable. First game from a new start up that was always considered a niche game is unlikely to drive any real profits. I didn’t have the numbers and I wasn’t going to look for them.

But as someone who spent many years researching, it was easy to spot the flaws in the argument that if Guild Wars 2 did what Guild Wars 1 did it would be more successful. It was always possibly something that could happen but there was no real case for it.

It’s just a pet theory that one person feels so strongly about that it seemed self-evident. Unfortunately my history with research left me more doubtful. A good percentage of things most of us believe to be true really aren’t.

maddoctor.2738:

Pre-purchase of HoT started towards the end of Q2 2015 which is probably why we got that bump. It’s not surprising that there was that bump there during pre-purchase, is it? I wonder though, was that bump smaller than expected because they refunded everyone who paid during their 2 massive sales?

While it was a prepurchase, and the money arrived then, we do know (though i don’t remember where i heard that at the moment) that it got assigned to the quarter when HoT got released. So, Q1 and Q2 would not be impacted by it.

maddoctor.2738:

Behellagh.1468:

Looking at the audited annual reports reveals an ugly truth. ArenaNet as an entity never made a profit from Guild Wars.

You should’ve said that in page 1. But really Anet made no profit from Guild Wars? That sounds extreme to be honest

Not really if you watch the industry, game studios close all the time while distributors are forever. NC Interactive and NC Europe had banner years in 2012 compared to 2011 because of their cut of the Guild Wars 2 pie in 2012.