Guild Wars 2

Okay. There has been a bunch of chatter about drop rates, and what exactly will drop from heavy moldy bags. This started with a discussion about the Immobulous recipe requiring 250 giant eyes (ridiculously difficult to get) and spun into other threads.

People were stating how many hours they played the game and what they had gotten (x precursors, x dyes, et al).

I had some extra gold and decided to take a stab at a bunch of heavy moldy bags. I bought 1500 of them, the cost was approximately 87 gold, just a handful of silver over. For full disclosure, I have 2246 hours in game over 344 days.

The bags themselves contained 45 silver and all of the following mats, including three giant eyes!! (I included an overlay of my bank tab to show my existing giant eyes, I have 6 now, 9 total since starting GW2) I have put everything but the giant eyes onto the TP to see if I gained money, lost money or broke even. I will post a follow up once everything has sold.

Super big thanks to Wanze for reminding me that the scroll wheel can be re-mapped to a macro…..my hand would be dead otherwise.

Very cool! Thanks for the information

187 crucial T6 mats out of 1500 bags. I’d say I’m shocked at how low it is, but I’m not. Not anymore.

An interesting experiment! Certainly intrigued to see if you made any profit.

And yeah ouch on the giant eyes. 2.7k hours, never seen one drop – and ive opened thousands of bags – heavy and large!

Actually… it looks a LOT like you’re opening a bag of the wrong tier – the three Giant Eye had the same frequency as the three tier 5 putrid dusts, while you got 30 tier 6 rare dusts.

Nike.2631:

Actually… it looks a LOT like you’re opening a bag of the wrong tier – the three Giant Eye had the same frequency as the three tier 5 putrid dusts, while you got 30 tier 6 rare dusts.

Heavy carries both tier 5 and tier 6 with a prevalence towards 5. I will say that when I got a decent RNG roll (powerful blood, for example), I would often get 2 of that item. I noted it on ancient bone, powerful venom sacks, armored shell and powerful blood.

I am going to do this again with the same number of large moldy bags and see, those will have tier 4 and 5, again, leaning towards the lower tier 2 times out of 3. I will post the results and clean it up so all you see are the bags and the contents, first time at this sort of thing.

Cassocaster.4576:

I am going to do this again with the same number of large moldy bags and see, those will have tier 4 and 5, again, leaning towards the lower tier 2 times out of 3. I will post the results and clean it up so all you see are the bags and the contents, first time at this sort of thing.

Large Moldy Bags only drop t5 fine mats, no tier 4. Medium Moldy Bags drop t4 and t5.

Thanks for the research, Cassocaster. I eagerly await the results.

Wanze.8410:

Large Moldy Bags only drop t5 fine mats, no tier 4. Medium Moldy Bags drop t4 and t5.

Is there a link to the breakdown? I had thought they just tiered downward, overlapping, as the heavy ones do. More research needed, man there is a lot to this game.

That’s a pretty lucky roll on Giant Eyes, actually; their rate is something around 1 in 1000 heavy moldy bags.

Cassocaster.4576:

Wanze.8410:

Large Moldy Bags only drop t5 fine mats, no tier 4. Medium Moldy Bags drop t4 and t5.

Is there a link to the breakdown? I had thought they just tiered downward, overlapping, as the heavy ones do. More research needed, man there is a lot to this game.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Container

Keep in mind though, that not all loot tables are stated accurate. I got more than a dozen items dropping from various bags that were not listed on their loot tables on the wiki. Also, alot of containers arent covered at all on the wiki.

One bag actually drops lemongrass but there are not many of it on the TP. I forgot which one it was, as i only opened 50 of it that i got over 2 weeks of posting the highest bid. I made some profit of those bags but as the lowest seller was ~5 times higher than the highest bid and considering the low droprate, it was just not worth putting in buy orders. Might have been one of the Skritt Shinies or the Treat Sack (which isnt even listed on the wiki)
If the droprate of Giant Eyes isnt high enough for you, just go out in the world and try to find the Inquest Asurans that drop Bags of Laboratory Material, which currently has 37 buy orders sitting at over 1.5g (11g lowest seller), then buy giant eyes from the profit.

Ensign.2189:

That’s a pretty lucky roll on Giant Eyes, actually; their rate is something around 1 in 1000 heavy moldy bags.

sounds fair.

Omg, I remember when i first hit Orr soon after game release, i found one or 2 of those and merched them not knowing what they were or what they’ve used for grrr lol.

Wanze.8410

If the droprate of Giant Eyes isnt high enough for you, just go out in the world and try to find the Inquest Asurans that drop Bags of Laboratory Material, which currently has 37 buy orders sitting at over 1.5g (11g lowest seller), then buy giant eyes from the profit.

-checks gw2tp- O.o

What the heck? Why are people paying that much for those bags? I can’t think of anything that drops from a T3 lootbag that’s worth so much…

Zaxares.5419:

Wanze.8410

If the droprate of Giant Eyes isnt high enough for you, just go out in the world and try to find the Inquest Asurans that drop Bags of Laboratory Material, which currently has 37 buy orders sitting at over 1.5g (11g lowest seller), then buy giant eyes from the profit.

-checks gw2tp- O.o

What the heck? Why are people paying that much for those bags? I can’t think of anything that drops from a T3 lootbag that’s worth so much…

Follow up as well. Everything sold from the bags AT A LOSS of 6 gold. That’s not that bad for the amount of data I got. Considering it’s a RNG engine, that’s within 10% of purchase price AND I lost 15% to BLTP. Those out there that say flipping is bad for the economy, my loss makes your money stronger, if only microscopically.

Without the fees the gross sale and the actual items cost break even so I got the value I paid but with no time to allow the mats to grow value, they sold immediately for the loss.

EDIT: (clarified drop rate calculation)
Based on 1499 bags opened, my drop rate for giant eyes is slightly higher with what ANet says it should be. At .002% (2 tenths of 1%), that works out to 2 per thousand bags…..

Cassocaster.4576:

Follow up as well. Everything sold from the bags AT A LOSS of 6 gold. That’s not that bad for the amount of data I got. Considering it’s a RNG engine, that’s within 10% of purchase price AND I lost 15% to BLTP. Those out there that say flipping is bad for the economy, my loss makes your money stronger, if only microscopically.

Without the fees the gross sale and the actual items cost break even so I got the value I paid but with no time to allow the mats to grow value, they sold immediately for the loss.

Based on 1499 bags opened, my drop rate is slightly higher with what ANet says it should be. At .002% (2 tenths of 1%), that works out to 2 per thousand bags…..

Did you put in buyorders for the bags or bought directly? I bought 4k Heavy Loot bags yesterday at 3.5s
140g invested, sold the loot for 170g after fees and taxes, 30 min work.

Wanze.8410:

Did you put in buyorders for the bags or bought directly?

The lowest buy offer was 2 copper below the current sell price, there was no gap so I just bought them. They averaged about 5.8 silver per bag (1500 bags @ 87 gold). This was an experiment about the drop rates and not about making money, I am actually glad I didn’t lose more, I was set to lose about 10 as an acceptable amount for the test.

Cassocaster.4576:

Wanze.8410:

Did you put in buyorders for the bags or bought directly?

The lowest buy offer was 2 copper below the current sell price, there was no gap so I just bought them. They averaged about 5.8 silver per bag (1500 bags @ 87 gold). This was an experiment about the drop rates and not about making money, I am actually glad I didn’t lose more, I was set to lose about 10 as an acceptable amount for the test.

Ah, ok. Its never a good sign, if buy order and sell listing are so close together.

Neural.1824:

187 crucial T6 mats out of 1500 bags. I’d say I’m shocked at how low it is, but I’m not. Not anymore.

Thats actually a pretty good ratio, i am hovering around 1 t6 mat from every 100th Heavy moldy Bag.

It seems as though Porous Bones are more rare than Giant Eyes. Indeed they are more rare than most T6 mats. <Rubs hands>

Thanks for the info. I guess that player who has the Immobulus on the wiki is a very lucky person indeed. At this point I would have to say that the Immobulus is in a tier far above legendary (which are far too abundant to be special).

I agree. My 2 immobulus turn heads.

I’ve only seen 3-4 other players with the scepter, which is definitely more rare than most. However, I’ll say that I actually have never seen a person using abyssal scepter.

zamalek.2154:

It seems as though Porous Bones are more rare than Giant Eyes. Indeed they are more rare than most T6 mats. <Rubs hands>

Porous Bones are Soulbound on Acquire and I dont know what they have to do with Immobulus.

Wanze.8410:

Porous Bones are Soulbound on Acquire and I dont know what they have to do with Immobulus.

Did you leave your sense of humor at home?

zamalek.2154:

Wanze.8410:

Porous Bones are Soulbound on Acquire and I dont know what they have to do with Immobulus.

Did you leave your sense of humor at home?

I am at home…

;)

Wanze.8410:

I am at home…

I am not (and overworked) and therefore I find things such as more Giant Eyes than Porous Bones in the OP’s inventory amusing.

zamalek.2154:

Thanks for the info. I guess that player who has the Immobulus on the wiki is a very lucky person indeed. At this point I would have to say that the Immobulus is in a tier far above legendary (which are far too abundant to be special).

nah, i crafted the immobulus yesterday and it took about 4 days to get 250 giant eyes from the TP with buy orders. i put in buy orders around 1.2 gold each (most buy orders were around the 1 gold mark) because i quickly grew tired of outbidding the other buyers who were upping my bids by 1c multiple times each night.

there’s usually less than 300 giant eyes on the TP at any given time, but there are plenty just sitting in player’s inventories, ready to sell when the buy orders are listed at a decent price point.

Bossy Bessy.3829:

zamalek.2154:

Thanks for the info. I guess that player who has the Immobulus on the wiki is a very lucky person indeed. At this point I would have to say that the Immobulus is in a tier far above legendary (which are far too abundant to be special).

nah, i crafted the immobulus yesterday and it took about 4 days to get 250 giant eyes from the TP with buy orders. i put in buy orders around 1.2 gold each (most buy orders were around the 1 gold mark) because i quickly grew tired of outbidding the other buyers who were upping my bids by 1c multiple times each night.

there’s usually less than 300 giant eyes on the TP at any given time, but there are plenty just sitting in player’s inventories, ready to sell when the buy orders are listed at a decent price point.

That’s harsh. I made my scepters when they were 50s a piece. Lucky me.

Anyway, the price is getting crazy. Lol

Bossy Bessy.3829:

zamalek.2154:

Thanks for the info. I guess that player who has the Immobulus on the wiki is a very lucky person indeed. At this point I would have to say that the Immobulus is in a tier far above legendary (which are far too abundant to be special).

nah, i crafted the immobulus yesterday and it took about 4 days to get 250 giant eyes from the TP with buy orders. i put in buy orders around 1.2 gold each (most buy orders were around the 1 gold mark) because i quickly grew tired of outbidding the other buyers who were upping my bids by 1c multiple times each night.

there’s usually less than 300 giant eyes on the TP at any given time, but there are plenty just sitting in player’s inventories, ready to sell when the buy orders are listed at a decent price point.

This was about the drop rate, not the buy rate which is always 100%. The poster you quoted is saying the ability to farm the eyes for the weapon is an RNG nightmare compared to what’s needed for a legendary and I tend to agree. Anything is possible with gold, I am trying to determine what my expectations should be (and help others see their own chances) based on a fixed number of bags, whether purchased or acquired through game play.

Lilith Ajit.6173:

I agree. My 2 immobulus turn heads.

I’ve only seen 3-4 other players with the scepter, which is definitely more rare than most. However, I’ll say that I actually have never seen a person using abyssal scepter.

I recently upgraded from zojja’s to mists skins so I can sparkle when not bifrosting.

Solo.9027:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

I agree. My 2 immobulus turn heads.

I’ve only seen 3-4 other players with the scepter, which is definitely more rare than most. However, I’ll say that I actually have never seen a person using abyssal scepter.

I recently upgraded from zojja’s to mists skins so I can sparkle when not bifrosting.

Pretty! I do love that scepter!

I sparkle with my anomaly/immobulus and my bifrost. Although, I’m very happy with the wupwup skin I got for a dagger a couple fractals ago!

Wanze.8410:

Neural.1824:

187 crucial T6 mats out of 1500 bags. I’d say I’m shocked at how low it is, but I’m not. Not anymore.

Thats actually a pretty good ratio, i am hovering around 1 t6 mat from every 100th Heavy moldy Bag.

Eh? That’s running a little cold by my numbers (9,625 T6 Fine out of 68,605 Heavy Moldy Bags).

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Solo.9027:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

I agree. My 2 immobulus turn heads.

I’ve only seen 3-4 other players with the scepter, which is definitely more rare than most. However, I’ll say that I actually have never seen a person using abyssal scepter.

I recently upgraded from zojja’s to mists skins so I can sparkle when not bifrosting.

Pretty! I do love that scepter!

I sparkle with my anomaly/immobulus and my bifrost. Although, I’m very happy with the wupwup skin I got for a dagger a couple fractals ago!

Nice, to me Immobulus just screams asura for some reason but I play a stupid tree elf.

I went with tear of grenth dagger skin because ele dagger mainhand skills make the dagger disappear when you cast anyway. I may use my wup wup chest for a backup/stacking dagger skin though, its been sitting in my bank unopened since fractured update.

Ensign.2189:

Wanze.8410:

Neural.1824:

187 crucial T6 mats out of 1500 bags. I’d say I’m shocked at how low it is, but I’m not. Not anymore.

Thats actually a pretty good ratio, i am hovering around 1 t6 mat from every 100th Heavy moldy Bag.

Eh? That’s running a little cold by my numbers (9,625 T6 Fine out of 68,605 Heavy Moldy Bags).

Youre right, i meant 1 t6 fine mat in 10 bags. And i was also referring to heavy loot bags, not moldy ones. For heavy moldy bags my ratio is 123/1000.

Well, I was going to try this but the price spiked on heavy bags apparently.

Did it anyways. Will update with results.

EDIT:

Opened 1402 bags. Bought 1152 originally then bought another 250 since I didn’t get an eye.

Results:

T6:

12 Powerful bloods .855%
18 Venom sacs 1.283%
31 Vicious Fangs 2.211%
36 Elaborate totems 2.567%
19 Dust 1.355%
20 Vicious claws 1.425
19 Armored Scales 1.355%
21 Ancient Bones 1.497%

Total: 176 – 12.553%

t5:

Who cares

Giant Eye: 1 – .07% which is exactly what the wiki says.

Total loss? 8.3g

Lets say average drop is one eye for 1500 bags. 1500 X 250 = 375, 000 bags to open. At my loss that would be ~2,075g to get through bags at current price. Farming? Not physically possible. Only possible way to acquire eyes is through buy orders. To out right buy the eye off the TP(actually ~500 available.) would be ~530g. To acquire with highest buy order would be ~401g. There are currently no completed Immobulus scepters for sale.

Total cost to complete Immobulus at this moment:

Between 570g and 440g

Started with 1000 heavy moldy bags:

49 piles of t5 dust 98 Gossamer scrap
276 silk cloth 59 hardened leather
260 thick leather



58 t5 poison sacs 16 t6 poison sacs
56 t5 fangs 16 t6 fangs
49 t5 dust 22 t6 dust
51 t5 scales 17 t6 scales
50 t5 bones 11 t6 bones
70 t5 claws 20 t6 claws
55 t5 bloods 23 t6 bloods
17 t5 essence 5 t6 essence
9 t6 totems

0.139 t6 mat drop rate

I might as well throw my full Heavy Moldy Bag data set up here; it’s a big enough sample to figure out what you want to know to a pretty tight tolerance, and enough people have similar data sets that it’s not particularly valuable to me anymore:

20352 Silk Scrap
15225 Thick Leather Section
6099 Gossamer Scrap
4756 Hardened Leather Section
4116 Intricate Totem
4058 Large Bone
4155 Large Claw
4092 Large Fang
4113 Large Scale
4111 Pile of Incandescent Dust
3839 Potent Venom Sac
3950 Vial of Potent Blood
1053 Ancient Bone
978 Armored Scale
1474 Elaborate Totem
1012 Pile of Crystalline Dust
1017 Powerful Venom Sac
1543 Vial of Powerful Blood
1042 Vicious Claw
1506 Vicious Fang
73 Giant Eye
997 Vile Essence
329 Putrid Essence
220086 Copper Coins
68605 Total Bags

For anyone interested the rate of return on buying Heavy Moldy Bags, opening them and selling everything at lowest sell is ~2% as of the time of this post, and generally doesn’t deviate too much from that – buy orders fill very fast and prices respond pretty quickly.

It’s not a particularly good way of making money, but it is a very good way to buy T6 fine mats (since you don’t eat the 15% TP fee on the items you keep) for your own use.

Ensign.2189:

I might as well throw my full Heavy Moldy Bag data set up here; it’s a big enough sample to figure out what you want to know to a pretty tight tolerance, and enough people have similar data sets that it’s not particularly valuable to me anymore:

20352 Silk Scrap
15225 Thick Leather Section
6099 Gossamer Scrap
4756 Hardened Leather Section
4116 Intricate Totem
4058 Large Bone
4155 Large Claw
4092 Large Fang
4113 Large Scale
4111 Pile of Incandescent Dust
3839 Potent Venom Sac
3950 Vial of Potent Blood
1053 Ancient Bone
978 Armored Scale
1474 Elaborate Totem
1012 Pile of Crystalline Dust
1017 Powerful Venom Sac
1543 Vial of Powerful Blood
1042 Vicious Claw
1506 Vicious Fang
73 Giant Eye
997 Vile Essence
329 Putrid Essence
220086 Copper Coins
68605 Total Bags

For anyone interested the rate of return on buying Heavy Moldy Bags, opening them and selling everything at lowest sell is ~2% as of the time of this post, and generally doesn’t deviate too much from that – buy orders fill very fast and prices respond pretty quickly.

It’s not a particularly good way of making money, but it is a very good way to buy T6 fine mats (since you don’t eat the 15% TP fee on the items you keep) for your own use.

.1% drop rate on Giant Eyes.

So ridiculous.

68K bags and only 73 eyes. >_<

…

Well, I put buy order in for Immobulus because I’m not paying 580g for it. A man can dream can’t he?

Made my first Immobulus few weeks after it has been discovered. Giant eyes went from 4s to 25s… It took me a decent amount of money to complete (total 40g).
As it was a market quite abandoned at some point and I had many many skill points, i crafted maybe 5 or 6 more, with buy orders on giant eyes (between 50s and 80s) for quite good margins.
Two months ago, I bought maybe 150 giant eyes just before the price skyrocket (around 80s). When i saw the price increasing, i decided not to craft immobulus but wait for the good time to sell my giant eyes.
They were sold for 2.15g, so big margin without spending any skill point.

However, my little market of Immobulus crafting is now dead, but i enjoyed it a long time.
Immobulus is really the best, I have never seen anyone else with it on my server…

Thanks to everyone for posting their RNG results. Through this type of collaboration we can actually set expectations appropriately and help others see that the RNG gods impact us all no matter what the volume. Nice work.