Guild Wars 2

Is it a set percentile chance per tinfoil or is it an actual global raffle? exploiters are going to have an advantage either way.

How can you exploit something that’s account bound?

Paradox.1380:

How can you exploit something that’s account bound?

By opening upwards of 20k ToT bags against a couple of thousands of the non exploiters.

there are people that have opened more than 20k bags just trying to get a mini.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Gwynefyrdd-the-Halloween-miniature/first

at least one person in there has opened a million bags. i think he said he only got a stack of tin foil tickets though. I think you could also buy tickets from the gemstore, so the 10 or so that the average person put in (i think i put in about 10) wont mean anything compared to the gemstore people who actually are trying to get these things.

EDIT: it seems that it will be a global thing and not a percentile since there was an actual quantity of items in his inventory (not that a percentile thing would matter since RNG seems pretty rough anyway-see above thread for evidence of that)

Effectively the same odds of getting a legendary from the toilet – if not worse.

The more hope and belief you have the lower chances you have.

Last week ArenaNet posted on twitter that 137,944,233 Trick or Treat bags had dropped so far. That would be about 2.7 million Shiny Foil Candy Wrappers if all those bags were opened (there’s only ~100k bags on the TP, but who knows how many players have stockpiled, plus all the bags that dropped over the weekend).

If I had to guess, I’d say at least 4 million entries. It is indeed a raffle, one of the german devs posted details:

https://forum-de.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Halloween-Waffen-Event/first#post409056

Karizee.8076:

Last week ArenaNet posted on twitter that 137,944,233 Trick or Treat bags had dropped so far. That would be about 2.7 million Shiny Foil Candy Wrappers if all those bags were opened (there’s only ~100k bags on the TP, but who knows how many players have stockpiled, plus all the bags that dropped over the weekend).

If I had to guess, I’d say at least 4 million entries. It is indeed a raffle, one of the german devs posted details:

https://forum-de.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Halloween-Waffen-Event/first#post409056

The issue is not the amount of ToT globally its their distribution and the exploit impact on it. Which they oh so casually omitted.

Apolo.5942:

Is it a set percentile chance per tinfoil or is it an actual global raffle? exploiters are going to have an advantage either way.

An actual global raffle. There are 1000 skins for EU and NA together, which will be randomly assigned among all the tinfoils (and then mailed to their owners). We don’t know how many tinfoils there will be, but most likely estimations place them at 3-5 million or so (hard to tell, as we don’t know how many of them will come from the gemshop). So, one tinfoil gives you one in 3-million (or worse) chance of gettin a skin. If you want a specific skin, multiply that by 5 or 10 (depending on skin).

There are people that gathered several thousands of those tinfoils, by the way (look at the Gwynefyrdd thread).

Apolo.5942:

Paradox.1380:

How can you exploit something that’s account bound?

By opening upwards of 20k ToT bags against a couple of thousands of the non exploiters.

And still I’m going to win with my 1 entry.

Astralporing.1957:

There are people that gathered several thousands of those tinfoils, by the way (look at the Gwynefyrdd thread).

Always nice to have access to an exploit.

Fun fact: Those 137 million ToT bags would have dropped over 1.3 billion pieces of Candy Corn. There’s currently only 5.5 million on the TP.

Most players have no clue how vast this economy is.

Apolo.5942:

The issue is not the amount of ToT globally its their distribution and the exploit impact on it. Which they oh so casually omitted.

1. There’s no exploit (as confirmed by Anet).
2. people that opened upwards of 100k bags were, for the most part, not farmers, but people that bought them off TP.

Apolo.5942:

Astralporing.1957:

There are people that gathered several thousands of those tinfoils, by the way (look at the Gwynefyrdd thread).

Always nice to have access to an exploit.

…TP is an exploit? I admit, i have always wandered about that [/sarcasm]

Astralporing.1957:

Apolo.5942:

The issue is not the amount of ToT globally its their distribution and the exploit impact on it. Which they oh so casually omitted.

1. There’s no exploit (as confirmed by Anet).
2. people that opened upwards of 100k bags were, for the most part, not farmers, but people that bought them off TP.

Apolo.5942:

Astralporing.1957:

There are people that gathered several thousands of those tinfoils, by the way (look at the Gwynefyrdd thread).

Always nice to have access to an exploit.

…TP is an exploit? I admit, i have always wandered about that [/sarcasm]

See my signature.

To my knowledge, the rules are thus. You throw your conspiracy theory about how Anet is attempting to sabotage the game onto the forums. The person with the best and most plausible theory is rewarded a shiny metal hat, via an unreleased peer-to-peer trading system, in-game, by a Dev who is not a Dev but totally is a Dev.

Apolo.5942:

Astralporing.1957:

Apolo.5942:

The issue is not the amount of ToT globally its their distribution and the exploit impact on it. Which they oh so casually omitted.

1. There’s no exploit (as confirmed by Anet).
2. people that opened upwards of 100k bags were, for the most part, not farmers, but people that bought them off TP.

Apolo.5942:

Astralporing.1957:

There are people that gathered several thousands of those tinfoils, by the way (look at the Gwynefyrdd thread).

Always nice to have access to an exploit.

…TP is an exploit? I admit, i have always wandered about that [/sarcasm]

See my signature.

You haven’t actually read my post past first line, have you?

Maize balm farming seems cool, but in reality it is small change compared to people that can just buy off those bags in massive quantites.

It is also small change compared to the number of total bags coming from plain classic labyrinth farming.

I don’t understand how opening more ToT bags than other people is an exploit.

I’ve probably gotten above the average number of tinfoil wrappers (although I didn’t keep track) because I’ve spent the entire of Halloween farming bags in the Labyrinth, and spending all the gold I earned in the process (including the profits from selling everything in the bags) on buying more bags.

But it’s something anyone could do. Most people wouldn’t want to because it’s very boring and you lose a lot of gold, but it’s hardly an exploit.

Danikat.8537:

I don’t understand how opening more ToT bags than other people is an exploit.

Because you have cash for it.
You can afford something others can’t.

I think they should be called hackers too.

Ban them all. Forever. Ever. Kthx.

Tao.5096:

Danikat.8537:

I don’t understand how opening more ToT bags than other people is an exploit.

Because you have cash for it.
You can afford something others can’t.

I think they should be called hackers too.

Ban them all. Forever. Ever. Kthx.

So having more gold than someone else is an exploit? By that logic we should remove gold (and probably other currencies) from the game completely because at any given time there will be a new person who has no gold at all.

I can’t speak for anyone else but in my case I only had gold to buy ToT bags because I spent all of Halloween farming the Labyrinth, and sold everything I got from it. At the start I had about 20 silver total because I’d been buying silk to make ascended armor. at the end I had about 30 silver because I spent everything I got on bags.

Bug From Wikipedia:
A software bug is an error, flaw, failure, or fault in a computer program or system that causes it to produce an incorrect or unexpected result, or to behave in unintended ways.

Exploit From Wikipedia:
An exploit (from the English verb to exploit, meaning “using something to one’s own advantage”) is a piece of software, a chunk of data, or a sequence of commands that takes advantage of a bug, glitch or vulnerability in order to cause unintended or unanticipated behavior to occur on computer software, hardware, or something electronic (usually computerized).

Chris Cleary BS PR answer on why they allowed it:
In a player driven economy, the demand of an item surpassing the supply generated by the playerbase will increase the value of it. While there are some items in these bags that are not based around cosmetics (the low drop rate of T6 mats), the price of these bags is directly relative to the cosmetic value that is being placed on them. While currently profitable, that profit is derived directly from other players and their willingness to play a higher price. In essence, this is a transfer of wealth not wealth generation.

So this is either an intentional game feature to give SOME players the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them, Thus rendering the whole “Player Driven Economy” a meaningless term. Or It is an unintended feature thus a bug thus an exploit.

Tao.5096:

Danikat.8537:

I don’t understand how opening more ToT bags than other people is an exploit.

Because you have cash for it.
You can afford something others can’t.

I think they should be called hackers too.

Ban them all. Forever. Ever. Kthx.

This sounds like real life politics… You have too much money, you need to redistribute it to make things, “fair”.

Just because I spent several hundred gold on ToT bags, doesn’t make it an exploit… What about the people who bought foil wrappers on the gem store? Is that an exploit?

Apolo.5942:

So this is either an intentional game feature to give SOME players the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them, Thus rendering the whole “Player Driven Economy” a meaningless term. Or It is an unintended feature thus a bug thus an exploit.

Erm, what exactly is a “not intended feature” here, considering that the balm works exactly as designed?

And farming generally gives some players (those that farm) the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them (by selling them to people that did not decide to farm). That’s the whole idea behind that activity. The fact that you don’t want to do that doesn’t make it an exploit.

(also, again, for every bag that comes from maize balm farming there are hundreds that come from normal labyrinth drops. Not sure where you see that huge impact)

Astralporing.1957:

Apolo.5942:

So this is either an intentional game feature to give SOME players the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them, Thus rendering the whole “Player Driven Economy” a meaningless term. Or It is an unintended feature thus a bug thus an exploit.

Erm, what exactly is a “not intended feature” here, considering that the balm works exactly as designed?

And farming generally gives some players (those that farm) the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them (by selling them to people that did not decide to farm). That’s the whole idea behind that activity. The fact that you don’t want to do that doesn’t make it an exploit.

(also, again, for every bag that comes from maize balm farming there are hundreds that come from normal labyrinth drops. Not sure where you see that huge impact)

The exploit is where and how you use the valm not where you get it from.

At the time of this posting farming ToT from Maize Balm will earn you a net profit of 45.25 silver (that is after the purchase of another Maize Balm to continue the chain) in the time it takes you to load a map. That is if you have access to the map to do the exploit.

Sephas.8793:

Tao.5096:

Danikat.8537:

I don’t understand how opening more ToT bags than other people is an exploit.

Because you have cash for it.
You can afford something others can’t.

I think they should be called hackers too.

Ban them all. Forever. Ever. Kthx.

This sounds like real life politics… You have too much money, you need to redistribute it to make things, “fair”.

Just because I spent several hundred gold on ToT bags, doesn’t make it an exploit… What about the people who bought foil wrappers on the gem store? Is that an exploit?

Nope that is pay to win which is acceptable in the context of this game.

Danikat.8537:

So having more gold than someone else is an exploit? By that logic we should remove gold (and probably other currencies) from the game completely because at any given time there will be a new person who has no gold at all.

I can’t speak for anyone else but in my case I only had gold to buy ToT bags because I spent all of Halloween farming the Labyrinth, and sold everything I got from it. At the start I had about 20 silver total because I’d been buying silk to make ascended armor. at the end I had about 30 silver because I spent everything I got on bags.

That was a full time sarcasm where I used gold as an example, because this topic about exploits remind me of those old QQ “Legendary can be bought in tp” etc stuff.

There is no exploit in fact.
You can win with submitting 1 foil, and you can lose with submitting 5mil foils.

As the more you submit the higher your chance is, but still doesn’t change the fact it’s RNG.

I remember raffles in other games, where people spend even 1 000 euro to win main prize and they still lost to those who didn’t even spent a penny.

It’s a gamble. It doesn’t matter if someone has 0.1% chance or 0.000000001% chance.
As long as you don’t have 100% chance to win, you can lose.

And I find it funny that people don’t want to accept this fact.

Gobble D Goop.4081:

at least one person in there has opened a million bags.

I think for all that time, money or effort the guy probably deserves a skin :O

Apolo.5942:

Astralporing.1957:

There are people that gathered several thousands of those tinfoils, by the way (look at the Gwynefyrdd thread).

Always nice to have access to an exploit.

Not sure if this is an exploit though, since ANet developed this to very much to allow for multiple entries.

Apolo.5942:

Sephas.8793:

Tao.5096:

Danikat.8537:

I don’t understand how opening more ToT bags than other people is an exploit.

Because you have cash for it.
You can afford something others can’t.

I think they should be called hackers too.

Ban them all. Forever. Ever. Kthx.

This sounds like real life politics… You have too much money, you need to redistribute it to make things, “fair”.

Just because I spent several hundred gold on ToT bags, doesn’t make it an exploit… What about the people who bought foil wrappers on the gem store? Is that an exploit?

Nope that is pay to win which is acceptable in the context of this game.

Wanted to argue against the ‘pay to win’ part, however since it is a raffle, and there are clear distinctions between winning and losing (i.e. getting a skin or not) I guess pay to win is actually being used accurately for once… if we ignore the randomness… I guess pay to stand-a-better-change-of-winning doesn’t sound as nice. Ok I’m confused, let’s just call it pay to win, simple and clean.

[quote=4537075;Tao.5096:]

op, im not sure what “exploit” you are referring to…

maize rat farm?
not an exploit

rebinding mouse click to scroll wheel to open bags faster?
not an exploit

I think he’s saying that the people who clicked so many bags were using tools to help them click.

But, just buying bags and then selling everything proved to be almost break even, which means that players who had money and wanted to open a lot of bags, could have opened as many as they wanted.

nekretaal.6485:

I think he’s saying that the people who clicked so many bags were using tools to help them click.

But, just buying bags and then selling everything proved to be almost break even, which means that players who had money and wanted to open a lot of bags, could have opened as many as they wanted.

1 Maize balm 8s instant 9 tot bags 54s

nightwulf.1986:

To my knowledge, the rules are thus. You throw your conspiracy theory about how Anet is attempting to sabotage the game onto the forums. The person with the best and most plausible theory is rewarded a shiny metal hat, via an unreleased peer-to-peer trading system, in-game, by a Dev who is not a Dev but totally is a Dev.

Winner of today’s internet

I put 4 in, so obviously I’m going to be a winner

Apolo.5942:

nekretaal.6485:

I think he’s saying that the people who clicked so many bags were using tools to help them click.

But, just buying bags and then selling everything proved to be almost break even, which means that players who had money and wanted to open a lot of bags, could have opened as many as they wanted.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IG3OcP6WB8

1 Maize balm 8s instant 9 tot bags 54s

why do you think its an exploit? because of a really drastic difference in supply of maize balm versus demand for ToT bags?

believe it or not, since the drop rate on maize balm is about 1/25 this specific instance is a negative feedback loop that will eventually raise the price of maize balm once ToT bags arent flooding all the markets in their drop tables.

a real problem occurs when its a positive feedback loop, such as if you got 45 bags from a single balm. but anet has already said “working as intended”.

nekretaal.6485:

I think he’s saying that the people who clicked so many bags were using tools to help them click.

But, just buying bags and then selling everything proved to be almost break even, which means that players who had money and wanted to open a lot of bags, could have opened as many as they wanted.

currently, ToT bags return 4s30c when you sell everything. They cost 5s3c, so that’s a 14.5% loss. not a complete loss, but still a loss.

You get about 1 foil wrapper every ~47 ToT bags.
If 137,944,233 ToT bags have dropped, then let’s say only 100 million were opened.
That would generate 2.1 million foil wrappers.
Then there’s more from personal ToT bags and the gem store.
So the raffle is probably somewhere around 2.5 million tickets.
If you have 1 ticket in the raffle, you have about a 1 in 2,500 chance of winning a skin (1000 × 1 / 2500000 = 0.0004)
That guy on reddit claims to have opened 1 million bags (which would cost ~60,000g, and he could sell everything back to the TP for ~51,000g), which would make about 21,300 foil wrappers. He will get about 8 or 9 skins: (1000 × 21300 / 2500000 = 8.52)

It’s not an exploit to work hard, save gold, then choose when and where you want to spend it.

insanemaniac.2456:

rebinding mouse click to scroll wheel to open bags faster?

Wish I thought of that when I was opening all of my bags….

Apolo.5942:

nekretaal.6485:

I think he’s saying that the people who clicked so many bags were using tools to help them click.

But, just buying bags and then selling everything proved to be almost break even, which means that players who had money and wanted to open a lot of bags, could have opened as many as they wanted.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IG3OcP6WB8

1 Maize balm 8s instant 9 tot bags 54s

You are ignoring the fact, that the balms do come from somewhere. It doesn’t really matter how fast you farm that instance, because in the end you are limited not by how fast you can click, but by the number of balms.

…and i could name at least one other instance, which actually gives infinite number of white crittes, so requires no reentry at all (unless Anet took it out in some of the last patches, haven’t been there in some time).

In the end, the only “exploit” i see here is that you didn’t want to work for your drops, but are envious of people who did. And last time i checked, hard work was not considered an exploit at all.

You are clearly misunderstanding what an exploit is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploit_%28video_gaming%29

This is a quote from Chris speaking for Anet

Chris Cleary.8017:

In a player driven economy, the demand of an item surpassing the supply generated by the playerbase will increase the value of it. While there are some items in these bags that are not based around cosmetics (the low drop rate of T6 mats), the price of these bags is directly relative to the cosmetic value that is being placed on them. While currently profitable, that profit is derived directly from other players and their willingness to play a higher price. In essence, this is a transfer of wealth not wealth generation.

As far as this specific spawn of ambients is concerned, it’s defiantly one of the faster ones to farm. As long as the playerbase is willing to pay for that item, and the demand remains higher than the supply, it will be profitable. This is not an exploit, it’s the playerbase saying “thank you for farming this, because we didn’t want to”.

So an exploiting is basically us using a bug in a way it was not intended to our advantage, Maize balm was an item with an intended effect so regardless of what you think about it, or what i think about it, If Anet allows it it’s NOT an Exploit

Before making any assumptions i never agreed with allowing it, nor did i participate in it but it’s not an exploit.

So, playing more and getting more drops is an exploit, now? Sounds like American educational theory. Johnny doesn’t study anywhere near as much as Sam, but he deserves an A, too. :p

Apolo.5942:

So this is either an intentional game feature to give SOME players the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them, Thus rendering the whole “Player Driven Economy” a meaningless term. Or It is an unintended feature thus a bug thus an exploit.

Why do you say some? Everyone had (and still has) the ability to spawn a private map with ambients that can be turned into candy cane elementals: Fractals swamp.

It may not be as efficient as the other instance, but still an available option.

Apolo.5942:

So this is either an intentional game feature to give SOME players the ability to gather coveted resources and profit from them, Thus rendering the whole “Player Driven Economy” a meaningless term. Or It is an unintended feature thus a bug thus an exploit.

Actually ALL players had the ability, some just did not know they had that ability and so gave it up (I am one of those who did not know and so gave up that ability).

It really does seem that those who opened the most ToT bags, and so who had the most foil wrappers, were those who bought the bags off of the TP, not necessarily those who farmed ambients.

Rebound.3409:

The more hope and belief you have the lower chances you have.

What if you realize your odds are 0 therefor your hope and belief are 0? Does that mean I have a 100% chance to get one?

fellyn.5083:

What if you realize your odds are 0 therefor your hope and belief are 0? Does that mean I have a 100% chance to get one?

The only winning move is not to play.

Pandaman.4758:

fellyn.5083:

What if you realize your odds are 0 therefor your hope and belief are 0? Does that mean I have a 100% chance to get one?

The only winning move is not to play.

Shall we play a game?