If u think about it, precursor is almost free
there is a flaw with your logic…it is not a guarantee that if you try 5 times, you’ll get at least one exotic
there were times when i put 4 rares into the mystic forge 10 times, a total of 40gs (10G) and came away empty handed
there were other times when i put 4 rares in twice, 8 (2G), and came away with an exotic
you have to remember for a 20% chance….you could do it 80 times and not get an exotic, and then your next 20 would be an exotic each time…though this is probably a far reach though
the above video is someone using 9G to buy 40 GS….and only getting one exotic to sell (4G)…a loss of 5G
(edited by Jordo.5913)
If it cost 25s to craft a lvl80 rare gs, it will cost 1g for the first attempt and 75s pre additional attempt since u have a gs left over from the first attempt.
If Mystic Toilet has a 20% chance of upgrading. So out of every 16gs which is about 4g, u will recieve a exotic gs, which can be sold for 4g.
Does not work this way.
I wasted almost 300g in the mystic toilet, using rares and selling exotics. I did not come away with a precursor, and I lost 300g. I wasted almost 1000 hours and 300g to come away empty handed. How is it almost free again?
I find the return on the mystic forge assuming you don’t get a precursor(quite a safe bet for most), is around 60-70% of the value of the items that you put in(also assuming you don’t reforge the exotics).
My last attempt(on the 10/1/13) consisted of 320 rare gs which cost 97.8g in mats to craft, I ended up with 2 rare gs and 21 exotics left over(exotics prices ranged from 2.1g-4.8g) and returned roughly 67g(before sales tax), so its not free but if you are lucky you don’t loose everything just think of it as downgrading your current gold by X% :P.
The time you have to put into it isn’t free.
80 Ranger | 80 Mesmer | 80 Thief | 80 Guardian | 40 Engineer
“The learned is happy, nature to explore. The fool is happy, that he knows no more.”
-Alexander Pope
“The learned is happy, nature to explore. The fool is happy, that he knows no more.”
-Alexander Pope
Exotics don’t all sell for 4g.
(edited by Lafiel.9372)
I paid 411g for my Dawn. It’s not free.
This week I tried maybe 30 times and got 2 exotics.
Learn2probability
You’re doing it wrong. Dumping in rares is going the cheap-but-inevitably-expensive way, when you could a) use the coin from creating multitudes of rares to either buy ecto for exotics, or b) salvage that ecto from the rares you’ve created to create exotics instead. Exotics will give you infinitely more chance at getting that precursor than rares will. It’s not wise to take the example of the lucky few who managed to drop as little as 4 lots of rares into the Mystic Toilet before somehow landing that precursor, because the odds are that you’ll be in the vast majority that’s still trying for it.
I noticed the vid included in the first reply, there’s one even better than that. Some dude threw in 1500 rare Greatswords into the toilet and managed to get 81 exotics in return, but no precursor from the rares. Back then (late last year) it was around 280g worth of weapons (which now would be ~500-600g), but the only ‘win’ he had would have been the exotics, from which he had a decent chance of forging that precursor.
The old-school Arrow-Key warrior.
“Obtaining a legendary should be done through legendary feats…
Not luck and credit cards.”
“Obtaining a legendary should be done through legendary feats…
Not luck and credit cards.”
from all the reply, it seems like the mystic toilet is broken, and the rate is 2% instead of 20%.
Excuse my ignorance, but where did you get the idea that the MF has a 20% chance to yield a precursor?
“The higher the level and rarity of the items to be combined directly translates to a greater chance of getting a precursor.” 1
Pulling numbers out of your posterior is not a good idea. Also, probabilistics don’t work that way. Pseudo-random number generators (which are used to generate “Randomness” via software) work a bit differently and I bet my left hand that if there indeed is a X% chance of a precursor to pop out of the forge, that probability applies to the forge itself (read: used by all players), not to a player itself.
1 https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Official-Response-Drop-Rate-of-Legendary-Precursors/first#post379209
well according to wiki, there is a rough 20% chance of upgrading the rarity of the item, so from rare, u get exotic. So unless they change something, the chance of upgrading rarity don’t seem right, or missing a zero.
from all the reply, it seems like the mystic toilet is broken, and the rate is 2% instead of 20%.
its still 20%
but your math is WAAY off
20% on each attempt isn’t 100% at 5 attempts
and you can even get exotics wich only sell for 1g, wich in return increases the loss of gold,
and not in a single way can i see where it will be ’’almost’’ free
“If at first you don’t succeed, destroy all the evidence that you tried.”
from all the reply, it seems like the mystic toilet is broken, and the rate is 2% instead of 20%.
Each time you use the Mystic forge, you have a 20% chance of success, which means 80% chance of failure. Now each time the probability is calculated and is independent of your other times that you tried, but you always have a 20% chance of success independent of your other tries. It it very possible to go through 1000 tries and never get a success, but you still had a 20% chance every time to get a success, you just got unlucky and hit the 80% failure every time.
I highly doubt the Mystic forge is broken, you just do not understand probabilities and how they work. having a 20% chance does not equal to 1 out of 5 times you are guaranteed a success, or even 20 out of 100 times.
20% is still pretty high, but I cannot c how much of a crappy luck to have gotten only 1 exotic after so many attempts.
To clear things up: 20% chance doesnt mean 100% with 5 trys, thats correct. BUT when you throw huge numbers of GS into the MT, lets say 1000×4 you will get 200 upgrades on average. I can use Wiki, too!
SO, in theory, you put maybe 8×4 swords in the toilet (i kinda like this name), get one exotic, then put 2×4 swords in and get another one.
When a huge number of player throws a huge number of swords into that thing and get a huge number of NOT exotics, then the chance isnt 20%.
It it very possible to go through 1000 tries and never get a success, but you still had a 20% chance every time to get a success, you just got unlucky and hit the 80% failure every time.
Chance for exo after 1000 trys, when chance for a single try=20%: 1-(1-0.2)^1000 =… well my calculator says 100%. And its a good calculator. So its sth like 99.999999999999%
OP is right, if you do this for a long time and the Sell and Buy Numbers are correct and the chance for upgrade is 20% and you have enought money to support this long enought, then its for free.
(edited by Molch.2078)
To make it more clear I just used a random number generator using the number from 1 to 100, and counted each time I got a number that ended with a 2 or a 7 (included the single digits as well) so that is 20% of the numbers. I did this 100 times, a number ended with a 2 or a 7 only came up 9 times. Does this mean I only had a 9% chance each time I pressed the generator button to get a number with a 2 or a 7? Nope, I still had a 20% chance of the generator showing me a number that ended with a 2 or a 7.
20% is still pretty high, but I cannot c how much of a crappy luck to have gotten only 1 exotic after so many attempts.
In WoW there was a quest where you had to kill yetis till one of them dropped a staff belonging to a dead wizard. In WoWhead it was stated the chance of it dropping was something like 30% chance, I ended up killing 437 yetis before that thing finally dropped for me, I saw several other people coming in and getting the staff to drop during my time, but it took 437 kills to get something that had a 30% chance to drop. I just got unlucky.
20% is still pretty high, but I cannot c how much of a crappy luck to have gotten only 1 exotic after so many attempts.
In WoW there was a quest where you had to kill yetis till one of them dropped a staff belonging to a dead wizard. In WoWhead it was stated the chance of it dropping was something like 30% chance, I ended up killing 437 yetis before that thing finally dropped for me, I saw several other people coming in and getting the staff to drop during my time, but it took 437 kills to get something that had a 30% chance to drop. I just got unlucky.
better get that checked out.
20% is still pretty high, but I cannot c how much of a crappy luck to have gotten only 1 exotic after so many attempts.
In WoW there was a quest where you had to kill yetis till one of them dropped a staff belonging to a dead wizard. In WoWhead it was stated the chance of it dropping was something like 30% chance, I ended up killing 437 yetis before that thing finally dropped for me, I saw several other people coming in and getting the staff to drop during my time, but it took 437 kills to get something that had a 30% chance to drop. I just got unlucky.
better get that checked out.
lol, I don’t even know if that quest even exists anymore, I have heard that some expansion changed all the level 1-60 areas
besides, what is there to check out? I had 436 kills that rolled the 1 of the 70 times it could fail, instead of rolling 1 of the 30 times it could drop. The positive side is I got a crap ton of leather since my character was a skinner =D
Indeed, Big Z is quite the tempermental guy…I got mine off 5 tries ending up with the precursor that I needed (Dusk), and I have two guildies who have tossed in over 20 sets each with no dice. One eventually got his precursor (not the one he wanted, but just sold it and bought the one he did), and the other is still trying.
I am saving the RNG Clover game for last, hoping the Balth Temple deal is worked out before then, lol.
LOL @ the people who don’t understand probability, yet reference it. No, 20% doesn’t mean a guarantee of 1 per 5 attempts but it does mean an average of 1 per 5 attempts. That means that while over the short term you may get unlucky (or lucky) in the long run you will get an exotic 1/5 of the time. Considering how many attempts it takes to get the precursor, you should be pretty darn close to the average.
The flaw in the OP’s post isn’t the probability part of it, it’s in a) calculating the value of the exotic and b) assuming that the MF returns 20% of rares as exotics. You don’t make 4g from selling an exotic and the 20% figure is just an estimate from the wiki. It could easily only be 15% or less.