Guild Wars 2

IPhyton.2348:

Dahkeus.8243:

“will said crash be good for the game?”

There’s a lot of rhetorical charge in that statement, lol.

The economy will be fine. We’ll see some definite change in the economy, but hardly anything to be called a crash.

Well lots of ppl with high ticket items on the tp will loose thousands of gold, in my case I will have 3k gold stuck in the tradepost forever or loose hundreds if gold by relisting. Thats somewhat a crash, since it affects a large portion of players.

people having 3k gold total, less alone that much tied in the TP, are not a “large portion” of the community. On the contrary, they are a tiny minority.

Of course it crashed. Why do you think they announced a dungeon gold nerf on the same day there was a dev post that basically said “the upcoming changes are going to screw over the market for a few weeks until it settles again, so watch out!” (paraphrasing, but you get the point).

For the average player that doesnt have more than 50g saved up at any given time, its probably a good thing in the end, and for the smart speculators who sold early, its also a good thing, so really the only ones screwed over are the bad speculators (not going to lie, I count in here, probably lost 500g already), and to them, well, thats the downpoint of speculating, it can go wrong sometimes.

I would expect a mild spurt of deflation from the change to dungeon rewards. This would occur slowly, as the change in the gold inputs has to work its way through trading post fees and grinding price shifts before it moves to gold supply. This is probably already happening.

This effect is certainly being drowned out by the upheaval of the expansion, the new goods that it introduced, and the big velocity effects that come with it (idle savings get tapped to buy new items from the expansion). At least in the short run this would drown out the deflationary effect of the dungeon gold nerf. We wouldn’t expect to see the deflation from that until this rush has passed.

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

Ensign.2189:

I would expect a mild spurt of deflation from the change to dungeon rewards. This would occur slowly, as the change in the gold inputs has to work its way through trading post fees and grinding price shifts before it moves to gold supply. This is probably already happening.

This effect is certainly being drowned out by the upheaval of the expansion, the new goods that it introduced, and the big velocity effects that come with it (idle savings get tapped to buy new items from the expansion). At least in the short run this would drown out the deflationary effect of the dungeon gold nerf. We wouldn’t expect to see the deflation from that until this rush has passed.

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.
If you mean Legendary Weapons, their prices have been pretty stable and you cant really see a significant price drop before or after HoT.

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

ZachAttack.3957:

And that’s my point. Most rare things I’ve seen are crashing, most notably crafting materials.

The point some ppl in this thread seem to ignore is that dungeons were the absolute highest liquid gold generated in game. The sw farm excuse falls on its face since the farm does not generate gold only mats and items. So with less ways to get gold = lower prices on everything which is good but screws over ppl who earned their items for sale at the tp that will now cost them to relist and at a much lower price. My main gripe here is that, soon ppl who spend real money for gems to gold conversion, will have more gold than players who dont. That creates pay to win scenario which in gw2 would be pay to skin.

What you keep ignoring is that overall gold faucets havent been nerfed, they have been shifted to content that anet will focus its development ressources on in the future, for example fractals and raids.

They expect a higher percentage of the player base to participate in that content compared to the players that used to run dungeons.

So even though individual gold rewards for people that used to run dungeons might get nerfed, the overall gold supply will stay the same because many more players will earn more gold rewards from playing their favourite content.

Lol shifted? A dungeon tour yielded 50g a frac daily run is 5g your math is wrong bud.

Not if 10 more players run fractals for every player running dungeons in the past.

Look, John SMith made a Q&A on reddit after he put the blogpost about economical changes, where he explained this.

You should check it out

Meh.. Im not a sheep and im calling as im seeing it. Goals are pointless with poor or wrong execution.
I love GW2 and have faith the devs want the best in general but opinions shouldnt be biased based on attachment to someone or what/who they are.

I agree with you. Anet should give us Precursors for free since we paid real money for this game.

Deflation =/= economic crash…

Wanze.8410:

Ensign.2189:

I would expect a mild spurt of deflation from the change to dungeon rewards. This would occur slowly, as the change in the gold inputs has to work its way through trading post fees and grinding price shifts before it moves to gold supply. This is probably already happening.

This effect is certainly being drowned out by the upheaval of the expansion, the new goods that it introduced, and the big velocity effects that come with it (idle savings get tapped to buy new items from the expansion). At least in the short run this would drown out the deflationary effect of the dungeon gold nerf. We wouldn’t expect to see the deflation from that until this rush has passed.

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.
If you mean Legendary Weapons, their prices have been pretty stable and you cant really see a significant price drop before or after HoT.

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

I believe he’s referring to the things I was talking about- very rare items that can sell for upwards of 100 gold, like farming nodes, ascended recipes, etc. And if I’m right in thinking that that is what he’s referring to, than it makes sense.

I believe the real problem with the current economy is the steepening of solid gold transactions like commander tag which cost a flat 300 gold, and the things like 12 silver threads needed for crafting. While the value of gold goes up… the price of those items remains static, essentially increases many “needed” items in price.

This does not mean they don’t see the problem… but like I responded to John, the problem wasn’t the removal of gold from dungeons it was the lack of any gold coming from other sources as it was promised. Fractals were supposed to be the new gold income, but they set the price of keys at 1 gold, so you essentially lose gold from fractals now… at least liquid gold. which means there is no fresh gold coming into the economy outside of trash loots from npcs and people who sell their greens instead of salvaging… this is a huge huge problem for the economy in the long run.. taking out 50-70% of the community bringing in 10-15 gold a day, and putting in them bringing in 20-70 silver will create a downfall in the price of every item on the auction house… this creates a larger wealth gap than before essentially taking us back to the early days of gw2.. the only problem with this is… at this point there are players with 10-20k gold banked that will allow them to easilly manipulate entire markets because the prices will get so low… this is why quick instead of gradual inflation decreases will cause problems.. I just hope they solve the fractal situation soon.. maybe adjust the price of keys so it yields slightly higher than what you put into it… or adjust the drop rate of the more rare 20 silver 1 gold and 5 gold trash drops. In my testing the average yield from a key was 12.6 silver, at a cost of 20 silver per key. After 1000 boxes. There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

I just hope they solve the fractal situation soon.. maybe adjust the price of keys so it yields slightly higher than what you put into it… or adjust the drop rate of the more rare 20 silver 1 gold and 5 gold trash drops. In my testing the average yield from a key was 12.6 silver, at a cost of 20 silver per key.

It’s pretty clear you arn’t supposed to make money when buying keys

Solution: Don’t buy keys

Wanze.8410:

Ensign.2189:

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.
If you mean Legendary Weapons, their prices have been pretty stable and you cant really see a significant price drop before or after HoT.

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

legacy items – items that are impossible or extremely difficult to acquire now. people who have these stored up are in some cases dumping them in order to raise money. However, the pre-HoT price for these items was ‘what the market would bear’ so as soon as the temporary need to raise money goes away, the prices of those markets should return to where they were before. Maybe a little lower IMO.

ZachAttack.3957:

Wanze.8410:

Ensign.2189:

I would expect a mild spurt of deflation from the change to dungeon rewards. This would occur slowly, as the change in the gold inputs has to work its way through trading post fees and grinding price shifts before it moves to gold supply. This is probably already happening.

This effect is certainly being drowned out by the upheaval of the expansion, the new goods that it introduced, and the big velocity effects that come with it (idle savings get tapped to buy new items from the expansion). At least in the short run this would drown out the deflationary effect of the dungeon gold nerf. We wouldn’t expect to see the deflation from that until this rush has passed.

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.
If you mean Legendary Weapons, their prices have been pretty stable and you cant really see a significant price drop before or after HoT.

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

I believe he’s referring to the things I was talking about- very rare items that can sell for upwards of 100 gold, like farming nodes, ascended recipes, etc. And if I’m right in thinking that that is what he’s referring to, than it makes sense.

farming nodes and asc recipes got new a rush of supply from opened chests after launch last week and the recipes got new faucets from the karma vendors. Their price didnt drop because there is less gold in the economy, its added supply.

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

If you take a closer at our economy, the only thing that effected the pricing of items in TP are items associated with upgrading guild halls. So the removal of liquid gold from dungeons did not effect the prices of high priced skins.
What you are viewing as a problem of removing gold from dungeons is merely people allocating their funds from shiny personal purchasing to contribution in purchasing items for the guild hall nothing more nothing less.

You have a valid point on guild hall items price, but regarding high ticket items and even medium ones is that the amount of gold a person can make on a game session is a fraction of it was thefore it does impact said items. Actually impact all items which is good in many ways but bad for veterans who will loose a big chunck of their personal gains stuck in the tp.

We got our 4th or fifth upgrade done this morning in our guild hall and the only gold we had to pay was the 100g for the claiming expedition, i wouldnt call that a huge gold sink.

The mats used to upgrade to GH dont cost any gold to create (unless they are untradeable vendor items), they get created by investing time. The only gold sink for this is the 15% fees and taxes, if you decide to buy it from there rather than farming it yourself.

False.

How’d your guild get those runes of holding for 18 slot leather bags? Or the 200 small runes of holding that are required on one of the upgrades? You have to spend gold to get them, there is no other way. Elonian wine? There are definitely more material sinks to the upgrades than there are gold sinks, but the gold sinks are there, too.

Aye.8392:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

If you take a closer at our economy, the only thing that effected the pricing of items in TP are items associated with upgrading guild halls. So the removal of liquid gold from dungeons did not effect the prices of high priced skins.
What you are viewing as a problem of removing gold from dungeons is merely people allocating their funds from shiny personal purchasing to contribution in purchasing items for the guild hall nothing more nothing less.

You have a valid point on guild hall items price, but regarding high ticket items and even medium ones is that the amount of gold a person can make on a game session is a fraction of it was thefore it does impact said items. Actually impact all items which is good in many ways but bad for veterans who will loose a big chunck of their personal gains stuck in the tp.

We got our 4th or fifth upgrade done this morning in our guild hall and the only gold we had to pay was the 100g for the claiming expedition, i wouldnt call that a huge gold sink.

The mats used to upgrade to GH dont cost any gold to create (unless they are untradeable vendor items), they get created by investing time. The only gold sink for this is the 15% fees and taxes, if you decide to buy it from there rather than farming it yourself.

False.

How’d your guild get those runes of holding for 18 slot leather bags? Or the 200 small runes of holding that are required on one of the upgrades? You have to spend gold to get them, there is no other way. Elonian wine? There are definitely more material sinks to the upgrades than there are gold sinks, but the gold sinks are there, too.

Already mentioned.

Wanze.8410:

SelenaDread.2814:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

If you take a closer at our economy, the only thing that effected the pricing of items in TP are items associated with upgrading guild halls. So the removal of liquid gold from dungeons did not effect the prices of high priced skins.
What you are viewing as a problem of removing gold from dungeons is merely people allocating their funds from shiny personal purchasing to contribution in purchasing items for the guild hall nothing more nothing less.

You have a valid point on guild hall items price, but regarding high ticket items and even medium ones is that the amount of gold a person can make on a game session is a fraction of it was thefore it does impact said items. Actually impact all items which is good in many ways but bad for veterans who will loose a big chunck of their personal gains stuck in the tp.

We got our 4th or fifth upgrade done this morning in our guild hall and the only gold we had to pay was the 100g for the claiming expedition, i wouldnt call that a huge gold sink.

The mats used to upgrade to GH dont cost any gold to create (unless they are untradeable vendor items), they get created by investing time. The only gold sink for this is the 15% fees and taxes, if you decide to buy it from there rather than farming it yourself.

I was talking about specific odd items that are not readily kept on hand in the guild bank, for instance the 18 Slot Thick Leather Pack used for the Mine which normal sells for 2g 50s spiked to 4g on Friday.

yeah the greater and superior runes of holding that are used to craft those bags and are also needed directly for later upgrades are the only direct gold sinks i could think about from items needed for GH upgrades

The only thing concrete is that the economy is fluctuating due to the release with the new expansion which is to be expected with the introduction of new items and uses for old items.

So advising of an economic crash ( severely doubtful ) can only be determined when the dust has settled and we have data to compare & analyze.

Oh look. The economy just crashed just now.

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

Aye.8392:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

If you take a closer at our economy, the only thing that effected the pricing of items in TP are items associated with upgrading guild halls. So the removal of liquid gold from dungeons did not effect the prices of high priced skins.
What you are viewing as a problem of removing gold from dungeons is merely people allocating their funds from shiny personal purchasing to contribution in purchasing items for the guild hall nothing more nothing less.

You have a valid point on guild hall items price, but regarding high ticket items and even medium ones is that the amount of gold a person can make on a game session is a fraction of it was thefore it does impact said items. Actually impact all items which is good in many ways but bad for veterans who will loose a big chunck of their personal gains stuck in the tp.

We got our 4th or fifth upgrade done this morning in our guild hall and the only gold we had to pay was the 100g for the claiming expedition, i wouldnt call that a huge gold sink.

The mats used to upgrade to GH dont cost any gold to create (unless they are untradeable vendor items), they get created by investing time. The only gold sink for this is the 15% fees and taxes, if you decide to buy it from there rather than farming it yourself.

False.

How’d your guild get those runes of holding for 18 slot leather bags? Or the 200 small runes of holding that are required on one of the upgrades? You have to spend gold to get them, there is no other way. Elonian wine? There are definitely more material sinks to the upgrades than there are gold sinks, but the gold sinks are there, too.

Some ppl in these forums will fight you on their point even when is clearly wrong or misguided. Better off ignoring some posts in my experience. I see your point btw.

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

You don’t feel any remorse declaring a fact without any knowledge of said fact?

I’m very curious

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

You don’t feel any remorse declaring a fact without any knowledge of said fact?

I’m very curious

No, just didnt feel like beating a dead horse.

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

This is so wrong and shows you don’t understand something fundamental. Buying gold doesn’t bring new gold into the economy. You’re buying gold from other players.

Originally there was a pool of gold and gems they put into that feature to prime the pump and allow people to purchase both gold and gems at launch. It was a set amount 3 years ago and not added to since. Now players buy gems with real money to buy gold from other players who have put gold in to buy gems from them. The game is not creating new gold. It’s exchanging gold and gems between players.

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

You don’t feel any remorse declaring a fact without any knowledge of said fact?

I’m very curious

No, just didnt feel like beating a dead horse.

So by answering no, it is safe to assume (by the mention of beating a dead horse) you understand that converting gems into gold does not create liquid gold….

Which brings of further questions of what your original argument actually meant?

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

You don’t feel any remorse declaring a fact without any knowledge of said fact?

I’m very curious

No, just didnt feel like beating a dead horse.

So by answering no, it is safe to assume you understand that converting gems into gold does not create liquid gold….

Assume what you wish. I never claimed buying gems created gold, I said anet wants you to buy gems if you want a chunk of gold now that its not viable to farm it in game at any decent rate. Where the gold comes from was never an argument. That said I rather not engage with know it all and self promoting attitudes.

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

You don’t feel any remorse declaring a fact without any knowledge of said fact?

I’m very curious

No, just didnt feel like beating a dead horse.

So by answering no, it is safe to assume you understand that converting gems into gold does not create liquid gold….

Assume what you wish. I never claimed buying gems created gold, I said anet wants you to buy gems if you want a chunk of gold now that its not viable to farm it in game at any decent rate. Where the gold comes from was never an argument. That said I rather not engage with know it all and self promoting attitudes.

Sloppy wording then. You certainly managed to give that impression.

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

The statement, buy gems and convert to gold, after a post about liquid gold infusion implies that you think that’s where new gold is coming in. It’s an irrelevant remark otherwise since it only shifts gold between players and doesn’t create wealth which is what your thread is about, creation of wealth through ingame gold.

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

SelenaDread.2814:

IPhyton.2348:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

Then dont?!

You don’t feel any remorse declaring a fact without any knowledge of said fact?

I’m very curious

No, just didnt feel like beating a dead horse.

So by answering no, it is safe to assume you understand that converting gems into gold does not create liquid gold….

Assume what you wish. I never claimed buying gems created gold, I said anet wants you to buy gems if you want a chunk of gold now that its not viable to farm it in game at any decent rate. Where the gold comes from was never an argument. That said I rather not engage with know it all and self promoting attitudes.

I apologize if it comes off that way, I am trying sincerely to understand your point of view in this thread.

From my point of view: You post about the imminent crash of the economy which is in regards to the removal of liquid gold in the game. You proclaim afterwards that Anet wants you to purchase Gems to convert into gold.

That would be two contradicting theories as if that was true the gold would deplete completely, which means you can no longer buy gold with gems. Anet would lose a source of income, and as a company that is a big no, no.

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

If everyone stopped converting gold into gems today and I wanted to buy a million gold it would be available. You keep saying that the gold to be converted is only from in game but that just isn’t true. If you are willing to pay, arenanet is willing to sell, even if it means making it out of thin air. I don’t care what anyone says, we all know that well will never go dry.

Lobo Dela Noche.5127:

Wanze.8410:

IPhyton.2348:

Jiggawattz.2697:

There is some variation there, but it is FAR from the liquid gold infusion we were promised to offset the balance of the decline of dungeon income.

That! But we know the why. Buy Gems and convert to gold.

You obviously dont know how the gem exchange works, so its pointless arguing with you.

If everyone stopped converting gold into gems today and I wanted to buy a million gold it would be available. You keep saying that the gold to be converted is only from in game but that just isn’t true. If you are willing to pay, arenanet is willing to sell, even if it means making it out of thin air. I don’t care what anyone says, we all know that well will never go dry.

Can you please provide proof of your claims?

On a side note: you would not be able to purchase the 1 million in gold….that is unless you had access to 817 credit cards or sources of payments.

Also: $81 700….jeez

Dollar => Gem conversion is stable.
Gem <=> Gold conversion is unstable.

Gem value never change.
But the more gold coins exists, the less a single gold coin have value.

That’s why prices changes on BLTP. Same for gems.
More gold exists in the game → Gem costs more.
Less gold exists in the game → Gem costs less.

It’s that simple, Arena.net have nothing to do, it balances itself.

John Smith.4610:

Couple of replies:
1. Ensign is, as usual, pretty dead on.
2. 12.6 Silver from key output is off from my understanding of that design, so I’m going to look into that.
3. A market like this isn’t going to crash, it could grow unhealthier over time, but that’s why we iterate.

Don’t suppose you want to give any nightfury hints like you did for the last MF recipe that got introduced… pretty please…

Kulvar.1239:

Dollar => Gem conversion is stable.
Gem <=> Gold conversion is unstable.

Gem value never change.
But the more gold coins exists, the less a single gold coin have value.

That’s why prices changes on BLTP. Same for gems.
More gold exists in the game -> Gem costs more.
Less gold exists in the game -> Gem costs less.

It’s that simple, Arena.net have nothing to do, it balances itself.

You seriously didn’t think this one through.
Why do gems spike from 80g to 95g? because all of a sudden the game magicly generates 22.5% gold out of nothing?
Gem—Gold ratio depends on how many people are willing to spend real money on gems to convert to gold and players spending their gold on gems. Anet is the broker that takes a % of each transaction to make these transactions a gold sink.

Wanze.8410:

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.

It’s akin to the velocity of other commodities. During normal times people hold on to ectos, T6, etc – and when the xpack hit, people are likely to sell down some of those reserves to buy other things (like buying into the flax boom). This introduces extra supply to the market and pushes prices down. This extra supply is due to an inventory reduction not due to differences in drops / production, so it is temporary.

Basically, ‘sell the old stuff the buy the new stuff’ is something you’d expect to happen in the short run, which makes prices on old stuff lower and prices on new stuff higher than it would be in the long run.

Wanze.8410:

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

Precursor markets are insane right now. The rate of return on crafting rares to throw into the forge is pushing 100% right now – you are expected to nearly double your money from throwing rare swords, staves, greatswords, etc into the forge. All the players who usually provide that service are clearly preoccupied with new content because the returns are simply nuts.

Ensign.2189:

Wanze.8410:

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.

It’s akin to the velocity of other commodities. During normal times people hold on to ectos, T6, etc – and when the xpack hit, people are likely to sell down some of those reserves to buy other things (like buying into the flax boom). This introduces extra supply to the market and pushes prices down. This extra supply is due to an inventory reduction not due to differences in drops / production, so it is temporary.

Basically, ‘sell the old stuff the buy the new stuff’ is something you’d expect to happen in the short run, which makes prices on old stuff lower and prices on new stuff higher than it would be in the long run.

Wanze.8410:

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

Precursor markets are insane right now. The rate of return on crafting rares to throw into the forge is pushing 100% right now – you are expected to nearly double your money from throwing rare swords, staves, greatswords, etc into the forge. All the players who usually provide that service are clearly preoccupied with new content because the returns are simply nuts.

Yeah, I was pretty confident that t5 mats would fall even more than what we seen in the last month before HoT, so in the last couple of weeks, i already crafted 20k mithril plated dowels on 2 acccounts, as well as greatsword hilts and blades and staff components. During the weekend, i was trading heavily on new items and actually played alot of content, but last night i started putting in buy orders for t5 fine mats, crafted greatswords and forged 3 dusk and 1 dawn. I was quite pleased with my personal prediction of crafting costs but i assumed that precursor prices would go down a couple of hundred gold, not back up again. As i got more dusks than dawns and was able to sell 2 of them for 1300g, i actually had an ROI of over 150%.

During last halloween and wintersday, i didnt prepare for mass forging, so it basically had me occupied the whole day for 1 or 2 pres, while i already got 4 today and probably will forge 2 more now. Not having to refine takes off alot of labour time.

But yeah, I also think its healthy for the economy, that prices tank sometimes, as it releases old gold from old buy orders, that most of the time, is from inactive accounts.
And those accounts get used as material dump for unwanted goods.

Wanze.8410:

ZachAttack.3957:

Wanze.8410:

Ensign.2189:

I would expect a mild spurt of deflation from the change to dungeon rewards. This would occur slowly, as the change in the gold inputs has to work its way through trading post fees and grinding price shifts before it moves to gold supply. This is probably already happening.

This effect is certainly being drowned out by the upheaval of the expansion, the new goods that it introduced, and the big velocity effects that come with it (idle savings get tapped to buy new items from the expansion). At least in the short run this would drown out the deflationary effect of the dungeon gold nerf. We wouldn’t expect to see the deflation from that until this rush has passed.

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.
If you mean Legendary Weapons, their prices have been pretty stable and you cant really see a significant price drop before or after HoT.

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

I believe he’s referring to the things I was talking about- very rare items that can sell for upwards of 100 gold, like farming nodes, ascended recipes, etc. And if I’m right in thinking that that is what he’s referring to, than it makes sense.

farming nodes and asc recipes got new a rush of supply from opened chests after launch last week and the recipes got new faucets from the karma vendors. Their price didnt drop because there is less gold in the economy, its added supply.

While that may be true, you can also say the price fell even further due to people who have been holding onto these items selling in order to afford new shinies as well.

ZachAttack.3957:

Wanze.8410:

ZachAttack.3957:

Wanze.8410:

Ensign.2189:

I would expect a mild spurt of deflation from the change to dungeon rewards. This would occur slowly, as the change in the gold inputs has to work its way through trading post fees and grinding price shifts before it moves to gold supply. This is probably already happening.

This effect is certainly being drowned out by the upheaval of the expansion, the new goods that it introduced, and the big velocity effects that come with it (idle savings get tapped to buy new items from the expansion). At least in the short run this would drown out the deflationary effect of the dungeon gold nerf. We wouldn’t expect to see the deflation from that until this rush has passed.

What you’re seeing with the dip in legacy prices is people dumping those items to raise cash to buy new items, which is exactly what you would expect to see. Outside of shifts due to changes in production (stuff related to precursors with the new materials, armor crafting patches, etc), those should be transitory and those markets would be expected to recover after the rush.

I see a temporary spurt of deflation in game as healthy. Without capital markets, debt, or contracts, you don’t have any of the real stickiness problems of a real economy, and increasing the real value of gold rewards, and people’s savings, is probably a good thing.

While i agree with most of your post, i dont know really know what you mean by the highlighted paragraph.
If you mean Legendary Weapons, their prices have been pretty stable and you cant really see a significant price drop before or after HoT.

Precursors went down a bit in the last weeks before launch but already recovered over the weekend. Today, the cheapest dusk on the tp was listed at 1500g, i sold one for 1300g today. And that is despite forging costs (mithril/elder wood/t5 fine mats or rare weapons) losing over 50% of value in the last few weeks.

I believe he’s referring to the things I was talking about- very rare items that can sell for upwards of 100 gold, like farming nodes, ascended recipes, etc. And if I’m right in thinking that that is what he’s referring to, than it makes sense.

farming nodes and asc recipes got new a rush of supply from opened chests after launch last week and the recipes got new faucets from the karma vendors. Their price didnt drop because there is less gold in the economy, its added supply.

While that may be true, you can also say the price fell even further due to people who have been holding onto these items selling in order to afford new shinies as well.

Most people knew before that they will need gold for new stuff in hot, so if they had expensive items, they would list it before hot releases, not wait until its live, risk the chance of new supply coming in and then sell to a buy order.

While some people certainly sold their shinies after HoT to raise funds, i dont see how this would be an indication of a crashing economy as a whole.

Most items go up and down in price over the period of a year, depending on supply and demand and seasonal changes to it.

I was so turned off by some of the economic changes that I logged out shortly after HoT went live. I barely could log in for the next day or so. For a crash, right now players are more than likely burning through savings. Once that dwindles, then things will more than likely start to become unhealthy. And, I measure that more by overall satisfaction, happiness, and level of reward the players express.

No one is discussing the one faucet that was completely removed from the game on Friday too. It’s not replaceable by the upcoming Raids or any other present content. The reclassification of mats also reduce gold generation from vendors.