Guild Wars 2

I have done it 35 times on the X10 recipe and all I get is 30 clovers?!?!?!? That is 3 /35 which is .08% ….. WHAT THE HECK IS THIS!?!?!

Its called random for a reason. Thats why no sane person is even using the MF for clovers any more, you get tons from reward tracks anyway, for free.

Dawdler.8521:

Its called random for a reason. Thats why no sane person is even using the MF for clovers any more, you get tons from reward tracks anyway, for free.

Lots of sane people don’t do content that has reward tracks.

For the OP: 35 tries is not enough to determine whether there’s an issue or not. The odds of getting only 3 successes is about 500:1; that’s bad luck, but not anything close to unprecedented for an MMO, especially one with so many players.

The 10x recipe is a lot faster, but the variance is a lot higher, because a single streak of fails means a lot of ecto/m-coins, whereas the 1x recipe is more tedious but is much more likely to offer near-average results.

Over the years, my average is just over 30%. I have the occasional hot streak and lots of unlucky streaks.

tl;dr if bad streaks frustrate you, swap to the 1x recipe (or take Dawdler’s advice and get your clover from the various reward tracks).

You just never do x10. X1 is much better solution.

Definitely unlucky.
As Ragnarox said, 1x is way better ( but, most of the times, i got the opposite issue… so i started to make and sell leggies ).

Legend of Rogue.5394:

I have done it 35 times on the X10 recipe and all I get is 30 clovers?!?!?!? That is 3 /35 which is .08% ….. WHAT THE HECK IS THIS!?!?!

It’s a matter of sheer luck. Sometimes you do 30 in a row and receive none, sometimes you receive several stacks.

Dawdler.8521:

Its called random for a reason. Thats why no sane person is even using the MF for clovers any more, you get tons from reward tracks anyway, for free.

I feel quite sane and used the mystic toilet to get about 66 Mystic clovers. It works just fine, although the last 7 were quite painful. I noted the success rates, for example I got only 5 out of the first 30 attempts. Next day, I got 15 out of 30 attempts. 20/60 was about the expected average. I also tried the recipes with 10 coins, and got lucky. When I got 3 × 10 clovers from 10 attempts, I stopped and switched back to the single coin recipe.

In my single coin attempts, I got a streak of 7 clovers once, and other losing streaks of 10 without any.

It’s just random, and you would need to forge more than 77 clovers to get close to the expected result. It sucks because we don’t craft 1000 mystic clovers. It’s even possible to not get a clover 20 times in a row, at a chance of 0.06% (if the wiki is right and the drop rate is 30-32%). If 1800 people craft 20 times, it is extremely likely that one of them has such a losing streak.

I know it won’t help easing your pain, but that day, you were that one guy. But maybe it makes you happy that while you were losing, someone else won more than the average, so the total probability in the game stays at 31%.

Shirlias.8104:

Definitely unlucky.
As Ragnarox said, 1x is way better ( but, most of the times, i got the opposite issue… so i started to make and sell leggies ).

It’s only better if your goal is to be average ^^

If you play your luck, you can get more than average by using the 10x recipe. If you craft 100 times, you will have less variance when using 1 coin, but that goes in both directions. You will have little chance to get more than average. If you craft 10 times using 10 coins, you could be lucky and get 40 or 50 clovers. You could also be very unlucky and get 10 or even nothing. It’s a fair gamble, unlike roulette, where high variance is better for you.

I must have good luck when it comes to clovers, i usually only need 150 coins to make about 80 clovers.

But bad luck when it comes to legendary precursor drops or chak egg sac. I’ve only gotten 1 precursor for 5 years of playing lol.

Faaris.8013:

I feel quite sane

Thats what they all say

Would have been nice if we could sell them I suppose. The only reason I didnt just throw hundreds of clovers away was that they added them to the vault.

Legend of Rogue.5394:

I have done it 35 times on the X10 recipe and all I get is 30 clovers?!?!?!? That is 3 /35 which is .08% ….. WHAT THE HECK IS THIS!?!?!

The game doesn’t remember all of your tries, each try is determined separately so it is not actually .08%. And X times in a row is perfectly random – even in a 50% / binary chance like a coin toss. That’s just how chance works.

I hate the MF and use it as little as possible and usually only for guaranteed recipes. I got my clovers from Chests of Loyalty.

Samnang.1879:

I must have good luck when it comes to clovers, i usually only need 150 coins to make about 80 clovers.

But bad luck when it comes to legendary precursor drops or chak egg sac. I’ve only gotten 1 precursor for 5 years of playing lol.

I’ve played since Beta and have received neither.

Ragnarox.9601:

You just never do x10. X1 is much better solution.

Well, not for me. I always use the x10 recipe. I make my clovers 1st thing when making a legendary (made 6 and close to 2 sets of legendary armor and back item) because of the other items they give, but I have had massive luck with clovers, have made over 600 and took maybe 100 tries with the 10x recipe.

Everyone time someone complains about the mystic forge recipe for mystic clovers, it’s always been because they have done the x10. If you want consistent results, with such a small sample size, to the x1 recipe.

Heimskarl Ashfiend.9582:

Ragnarox.9601:

You just never do x10. X1 is much better solution.

Well, not for me. I always use the x10 recipe. I make my clovers 1st thing when making a legendary (made 6 and close to 2 sets of legendary armor and back item) because of the other items they give, but I have had massive luck with clovers, have made over 600 and took maybe 100 tries with the 10x recipe.

Unless you have incredible luck and get 80 within 25 attempts, you’re just wasting resources.

I’ve made enough mystic clovers for all of the HoT legendary weapons and maybe over 15 of the core ones (can’t remember how many I sold) so I have a fairly good idea on the drop rate for the clovers. The x1 recipe is the best in the long run.

Neither the 1x nor the 10x is better than the other. They just give us an option to trade consistency (1x recipe) for convenience.

• 1x is more stable because more people are likely to get close to average results from ~249 attempts to get to 77 clover.
• 10x is faster because the average result only requires ~24 attempts, but it’s a lot more likely that you’ll need more than average.

If you plan to make 100 legendaries, then it’s unlikely to matter which method you use. Since most of us are unlikely to plan to make more than 1-2 at a time, reasonable people can differ about whether they value convenience more than consistency.

tl;dr are you feeling lucky, forger? go ahead, pull the 10x recipe. (otherwise stick to 1x)

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Neither the 1x nor the 10x is better than the other. They just give us an option to trade consistency (1x recipe) for convenience.

• 1x is more stable because more people are likely to get close to average results from ~249 attempts to get to 77 clover.
• 10x is faster because the average result only requires ~24 attempts, but it’s a lot more likely that you’ll need more than average.

If you plan to make 100 legendaries, then it’s unlikely to matter which method you use. Since most of us are unlikely to plan to make more than 1-2 at a time, reasonable people can differ about whether they value convenience more than consistency.

tl;dr are you feeling lucky, forger? go ahead, pull the 10x recipe. (otherwise stick to 1x)

I’m only saying it’s better because I don’t think that the number of attempts would be large enough to produce the average even if they crafted all of the legendary weapons. over the entire player base the percentages are the same but the individual player will still see large fluctuations.

Edit: Not arguing against what you said but just elaborating on my position.

I’ve crafted a half dozen Legendary weapons, and used the 1x recipe each time. It’s always a crap shoot (pun intended) but the more samples you take of a random process the more likely you are to see statistically valid results. But I’m a little skeptical of the random number generator itself.

In a truly random process there is no memory of prior outcomes. A coin can’t remember its previous results so every toss has a 0.5 probability of a head. But a pseudo-random number generator clearly has to use an algorithm, and the algorithms use the previous result to generate the next one. So while there is nothing actually random about the result it should appear random to a “casual observer.” And of course you can test the goodness of the RNG by constructing statistical tests. Bla..bla..bla..

But it has been my observation that when you get a clover, you are very likely to get another almost immediately. And then another. Then a long stretch of worry that you’ll run out of obsidian before you get another clover cluster.

tldr; Use 1x, and random may not be as random as you think.

Bad luck. I gotten 77 recently in like 100 something obsidian worth of x10 attempts which is a lucky attempt. My worst was a previous legendary that took 700 obsidian worth of attempts…

Ragnarox.9601:

You just never do x10. X1 is much better solution.

This. I just did clovers one at a time to get 50 and I got 50 in 148 tries, which is as expected.

You always have a 30% chance to get mystic clovers so it best to try and make mystic clovers in one shot instead of doing it on a daily basis. You luck is just bad atm. The more mystic clovers you create the more it will even out at ~30%.

If by broken you mean the developers have, for some unknowable reason, purposely made getting mats suck, than yes, clovers are broken, along with 9/10ths of the games crafting system.

i thought nice i go for a legendary to make gold but with this trash rng i waste all of my gold in this stuped forge, why so unfair. i havent received 1 single stack of clovers from forge and already 70 mystic coins and globs gone. what a company…

This is why I never use the recipe for 10.

Using the 1x recipe, I’ve always run right around the suggested amount of ecto/coins needed for 77.

titje.2745:

i thought nice i go for a legendary to make gold but with this trash rng i waste all of my gold in this stuped forge, why so unfair. i havent received 1 single stack of clovers from forge and already 70 mystic coins and globs gone. what a company…

Next time do the x1 recipe for more consistent results around the 33% average.

Ayrilana.1396:

titje.2745:

i thought nice i go for a legendary to make gold but with this trash rng i waste all of my gold in this stuped forge, why so unfair. i havent received 1 single stack of clovers from forge and already 70 mystic coins and globs gone. what a company…

Next time do the x1 recipe for more consistent results around the 33% average.

i tried, and got few but i dont understand why this unluck, we customers pay money for nice xpack but with this kind of gameplay we get punished, the op spend 350 coins for 30 clovers at that rate it dont matter if you lucky got the pre dropped you lose the money at clovers its just a pain for poor players. i cant say everything what i think becouse of infractions so i keep it friendly

i want a nice game, my rng got much better last few months so i play happy but i want also make profit on legendary but if they make me rage with mystic clovers. its very bad to me

titje.2745:

Ayrilana.1396:

titje.2745:

i thought nice i go for a legendary to make gold but with this trash rng i waste all of my gold in this stuped forge, why so unfair. i havent received 1 single stack of clovers from forge and already 70 mystic coins and globs gone. what a company…

Next time do the x1 recipe for more consistent results around the 33% average.

i tried, and got few but i dont understand why this unluck, we customers pay money for nice xpack but with this kind of gameplay we get punished, the op spend 350 coins for 30 clovers at that rate it dont matter if you lucky got the pre dropped you lose the money at clovers its just a pain for poor players. i cant say everything what i think becouse of infractions so i keep it friendly

i want a nice game, my rng got much better last few months so i play happy but i want also make profit on legendary but if they make me rage with mystic clovers. its very bad to me

You generally only use that many coins if you do the x10 recipe. I tend to spend between 230-250 coins using the x1 recipe.

I suggest anyone thinking about doing the x10 recipe, or having done it and are upset at their results, read the following:

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

The average rate for clovers from either recipe is roughly 33%. It’s in your best interest to do the recipe that requires more attempts as that means you’re more likely to approach the average.