Is the RNG system truthly random?

Is the RNG system truthly random?

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Posted by: Shadowmoon.7986

Shadowmoon.7986

This game rely on alot of RNG for it’s drop system. It also should be commonsense that the RNG isn’t truthly RNG, but uses a pseudorandom number generator that uses some unknown seed to generate these number to determine drops. But I have also observed that drops tend to identical, for example wvw chest that spawn the exact same item. I am wondering if anyone else has noticed that drop tend not to be so random. That either you or a friends tends to get the same item over and over again. I noticed this alot in fractals where i would get a disproportional amount of one fractal weapon, while others got disproportional amount of other fractal weapons.
What it come down to is for a game that rely on Skinner Box RNG reward schemes, I don’t even feel like the PRNG is random enough to consider as a fair RNG system. Those of us with bad seeds will never get the items they wants. And for some items, there is no nonRNG alternatives.
Anet should at least release what the drop % is for items, not hide behind vague wording(rare or very rare tells me nothing). At least then I know the pseudo odds.
I’m also wondering what they use as their Seed. It might explain why there are lucky accounts and unluck accounts.

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Posted by: Fyrebrand.4859

Fyrebrand.4859

But I have also observed that drops tend to identical, for example wvw chest that spawn the exact same item. I am wondering if anyone else has noticed that drop tend not to be so random. That either you or a friends tends to get the same item over and over again.

Well, it is as random as an RNG can be, but each chest or mob only has a limited pool of possibilities to draw from. It’s not like you can kill a boss and expect to get any random item that exists in the game.
And as I’m sure you know, some items or types of items have a higher drop chance than others. Just because a precursor is in the loot pool does not mean it has an equal chance to drop as any green or yellow pair of pants. And no, for those who are going to say it, “I have done this boss 100 times, it should be guaranteed by now” is not a sensical thing to say.

I noticed this alot in fractals where i would get a disproportional amount of one fractal weapon, while others got disproportional amount of other fractal weapons.

See, that is an indicator of confirmation bias right there. If a certain item has a disproportionately high chance of dropping, then you all should be getting the same drops all the time — not different ones. I mean, do you think the game’s code is actually programmed to ramp up the drop chance of certain items, on a per-account basis? Sounds pretty “conspiracy theory” to me. What would be the advantage to ArenaNet, to even pull something like this?

Those of us with bad seeds will never get the items they wants…
It might explain why there are lucky accounts and unluck accounts.

Magical thinking. Everyone is playing the same game.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

If there were a gem shop item that would reseed my account, I’d buy it in a heartbeat.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: nikdik.1934

nikdik.1934

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

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Posted by: IndigoSundown.5419

IndigoSundown.5419

I get a wildly disproportional amount of item drops with the Shaman’s prefix, blue, green and gold. That would suggest to me that Shaman’s prefix items have a large set of numbers assigned to them. However, it could also mean that RNG hates me, whether it’s truly random or not.

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Posted by: Labjax.2465

Labjax.2465

If you try to make sense of luck (outside of carefully controlled testing environments) you will invent patterns where there are none and see trends that are gone before they’ve started.

In other words, you can safely assume they’re using the strongest algorithm for it that they can come up with. Beyond that, luck is luck – sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and if you could do a perfectly controlled test, your luck would hit around whatever the average is, over time.

But because you really can’t do a perfectly controlled test (specially considering that the devs are privy to all the separate mob item pools and we are not), you will forever find patterns in luck because the human brain wants to see patterns in everything and you may never hit the average at all.

Or words to that effect.

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Posted by: Amnariel.3659

Amnariel.3659

The Precursors and Exotics are the unique items ingame rest Blue,Green,Yellow are random created and knowing the fact that you can have the same item twice and 3x of any item I could say that but because theres 3vs1(Blue,Green,yellow)(Exotic) you have great chances to get garbage.
I wouldn’t be bothered if they give something useful at salvage part…not only +10 luck 1Mithril or 1 silk scrap or 1orichalcum…

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Posted by: Zok.4956

Zok.4956

This game rely on alot of RNG for it’s drop system. It also should be commonsense that the RNG isn’t truthly RNG, but uses a pseudorandom number generator that uses some unknown seed to generate these number to determine drops.

We do not know which algorythms are used for the random number generation. And we do not know what source of entrophy the system uses for the random number generation.

But a pseudo random generator that gets its seed from an entrophy source (like /dev/random in linux) is good enough for cryptograpic software (like OpenSSL) and could for game issues be seen as “truthly random”.

But I have also observed that drops tend to identical, for example wvw chest that spawn the exact same item. I am wondering if anyone else has noticed that drop tend not to be so random.

Not all items/events share the same “global game wide loot table” but have their own. So the drops are random (factor in the item probability in the loot table) in relation to their own loot table.

Those of us with bad seeds will never get the items they wants.
(…)
It might explain why there are lucky accounts and unluck accounts.

I do not think that player accounts or chars have their own “seed” for a pseudo random number generator. Why should they? It does not make any sense from a system and software development perspective.

I think the explanation is quite simple. Random is random und luck is luck.

If you roll a dice, that has the numbers 1 to 100 on it, 100 times, it could be that you have rolled every number from 1 to 100, or it could be that you only have rolled the numbers 1-50 and never got the numbers 51-100, etc…

Within such “small samples” the “luck” is not spread evenly and the human brain tries to see patterns where none exist.

Every player gets the same chances, but that does not mean that every player gets the same items.

Greetings.

(edited by Zok.4956)

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Posted by: Manasa Devi.7958

Manasa Devi.7958

Recently, I’ve had something happen to me a few times that makes me doubt the RNG. When I click through piles of sand, I sometimes get groupings of 3: 3e geodes from 3 subsequent double-clicks or 3 lockpicks. Both have happened several times.

This could of course happen with a fair and proper RNG, but given the droprates of those things, it should be very unlikely and I wouldn’t expect it to happen several times in a short period of time.

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Posted by: Asgaeroth.6427

Asgaeroth.6427

I don’t think there’s an RNG at all. The game is too much based on the economics of certain drops. Everything hinges on precursors being rare, and in RNG the precursors have a chance to drop. The odd patterns I see in my loot paired with the absurd volume of items I’ve seen come and go through my inventory has convinced me that the loot is scripted and precursors get let out manually. Anet is not going to leave their entire economy to chance. Precursors are handed out individually to people who meet certain flags and only when it wont hurt the market price.

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Posted by: cesmode.4257

cesmode.4257

The system actually looks at your forum posts, and based on your positivity in the forums, it favors your chances.

Me…I get…nothing.

Karma is as abundant as air, and as useless as the Kardashians.

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Posted by: Vayne.8563

Vayne.8563

The system actually looks at your forum posts, and based on your positivity in the forums, it favors your chances.

Me…I get…nothing.

It might work the other way around. The less you get, the less positive your forum posts. lol

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Posted by: cesmode.4257

cesmode.4257

The system actually looks at your forum posts, and based on your positivity in the forums, it favors your chances.

Me…I get…nothing.

It might work the other way around. The less you get, the less positive your forum posts. lol

Very true.

Karma is as abundant as air, and as useless as the Kardashians.

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Posted by: Sytherek.7689

Sytherek.7689

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

Agreed. Very ‘agreed’.

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Posted by: Vayne.8563

Vayne.8563

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

Agreed. Very ‘agreed’.

I absolutley disagree with this. I salvage a lot of my blues and greens, hoping for silk or linen. If I were a medium class, and got only leather from salvages, I’d be very very sad.

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Posted by: Morsus.5106

Morsus.5106

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

Then playing a light armor class would be more lucrative since that’s how you get silk.

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Posted by: CureForLiving.5360

CureForLiving.5360

If there were a gem shop item that would reseed my account, I’d buy it in a heartbeat.

Assuming of course ANet has a random number generator running for every single account…

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

Would suck for those of us with alts. Most of my alts have been equipped with items I couldn’t use on my main. Also of course those types of items can potentially net you a couple of gold in the AH.

Recently, I’ve had something happen to me a few times that makes me doubt the RNG. When I click through piles of sand, I sometimes get groupings of 3: 3e geodes from 3 subsequent double-clicks or 3 lockpicks. Both have happened several times.

This could of course happen with a fair and proper RNG, but given the droprates of those things, it should be very unlikely and I wouldn’t expect it to happen several times in a short period of time.

Probably just your perception playing tricks on you. Although I guess if you want to scientifically document it after a few thousand piles of sand we might be able to see a tentative pattern, although we’d ideally look for a far far larger sample size :P

The system actually looks at your forum posts, and based on your positivity in the forums, it favors your chances.

Me…I get…nothing.

I don’t get nothing either, although I don’t think it has anything to do regarding the sentiments expressed on this here forum. Also such a system would be more complicated to implement (to run autonomously) then a better pseudo-RND.

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

Then playing a light armor class would be more lucrative since that’s how you get silk.

Oh I need silk so much… so I might be seeing the upside to this system…

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Posted by: Sariel V.7024

Sariel V.7024

I get a wildly disproportional amount of item drops with the Shaman’s prefix, blue, green and gold. That would suggest to me that Shaman’s prefix items have a large set of numbers assigned to them. However, it could also mean that RNG hates me, whether it’s truly random or not.

Prefixes ARE kinda tied to regions and skins. Do you play a lot in Norn territory?

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Posted by: Blude.6812

Blude.6812

This game should go the Diablo 3 route of having random loot but every drop is usable by your class.

Agreed. Very ‘agreed’.

Second that.

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Posted by: Theftwind.8976

Theftwind.8976

As I mentioned many times it all depends on whether they are using a fixed seed or a random seed. Here is a link on RNGs and if you scroll partway down to the heading “Setting Seeds” you will find an explanation of what I am trying to say. Fixed seed rngs are faster to return a result but have the tendency to return a repeating pattern of results.

http://www.codeproject.com/Articles/28548/Pitfalls-in-Random-Number-Generation

So in essence if you begin a gaming session and the beginning part of your “pattern” gives poor results and end that session the next time you start a session you will again start at the beginning of that pattern and get the same results. That is why people will report “streaks” of good luck if they play long enough as they will reach a part of the result table that is “good” but they will suffer again from mediocre returns if they restart the session.

Theftwind (HoD)

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Posted by: IndigoSundown.5419

IndigoSundown.5419

I get a wildly disproportional amount of item drops with the Shaman’s prefix, blue, green and gold. That would suggest to me that Shaman’s prefix items have a large set of numbers assigned to them. However, it could also mean that RNG hates me, whether it’s truly random or not.

Prefixes ARE kinda tied to regions and skins. Do you play a lot in Norn territory?

I remember getting tons of them in Orr as well, though that was some time ago.

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Posted by: Sariel V.7024

Sariel V.7024

I get a wildly disproportional amount of item drops with the Shaman’s prefix, blue, green and gold. That would suggest to me that Shaman’s prefix items have a large set of numbers assigned to them. However, it could also mean that RNG hates me, whether it’s truly random or not.

Prefixes ARE kinda tied to regions and skins. Do you play a lot in Norn territory?

I remember getting tons of them in Orr as well, though that was some time ago.

I did a quick search through some weapon data from the API… about 98% of Shaman’s weapons are Norn, Etched, or Shiverpeaks weapons (all Norn territory drops). The rest are Pearl weapons or named exotics. You will get some of the Norn stuff in Orr, but really I think you should be seeing a greater variety.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I think it is random in the sense, it generate a random item.

But it is very possible same item been generate because the random generator feed the same information more than once to different query.

That being said I think it is just people being paranoid. I don’t think there are even that many equipment item in a level range. So it is very likely you just happen to roll the same item twice.

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Posted by: HELLruler.4820

HELLruler.4820

It’s not as random as a human, it uses a complex algorithm to “random” stuff. But the numbers get changed so much that it’s pretty random lol

So yeah, RNG is totally random, and that’s why it sucks

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Posted by: Brother Grimm.5176

Brother Grimm.5176

Recently, I’ve had something happen to me a few times that makes me doubt the RNG. When I click through piles of sand, I sometimes get groupings of 3: 3e geodes from 3 subsequent double-clicks or 3 lockpicks. Both have happened several times.

This could of course happen with a fair and proper RNG, but given the droprates of those things, it should be very unlikely and I wouldn’t expect it to happen several times in a short period of time.

That’s actually one of the flaws of computers generating RNG values. Every RNG type function needs a SEED number (not the same as a possible ACCOUNT or CHARACTER seed number the OP is speculating about) to generate the RNG value. WHERE this seed number comes from is USUALLY the system real time clock…..so similar values ARE more possible (or likely) if the RNG values are generated very close together. Again, speculation based on programming experience, not any inside knowledge of what Anet’s code does.

And on the issue of Account and / or Character based hidden “luck” stats (or seed values):

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Posted by: mattm.4516

mattm.4516

As I mentioned many times it all depends on whether they are using a fixed seed or a random seed. Here is a link on RNGs and if you scroll partway down to the heading “Setting Seeds” you will find an explanation of what I am trying to say. Fixed seed rngs are faster to return a result but have the tendency to return a repeating pattern of results.

http://www.codeproject.com/Articles/28548/Pitfalls-in-Random-Number-Generation

So in essence if you begin a gaming session and the beginning part of your “pattern” gives poor results and end that session the next time you start a session you will again start at the beginning of that pattern and get the same results. That is why people will report “streaks” of good luck if they play long enough as they will reach a part of the result table that is “good” but they will suffer again from mediocre returns if they restart the session.

Interesting read. Thanks!
Just out of curiosity: Does you knowledge influence your playstyle in any way? e.g. do you keep on playing when you start to get some good drops?

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Posted by: Guhracie.3419

Guhracie.3419

My theory is that it has to do with numerology, our user names, and the Da Vinci Code. (The novel, not an actual code.)

“Be angry about legendary weapons, sure, but what about the recent drought of content?”
-Mike O’Brien
Because we can’t be angry about both?

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Posted by: Zackie.8923

Zackie.8923

it is random, because it is not equal for everyone

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Posted by: Astralporing.1957

Astralporing.1957

I get a wildly disproportional amount of item drops with the Shaman’s prefix, blue, green and gold. That would suggest to me that Shaman’s prefix items have a large set of numbers assigned to them.

Yeah, shaman, cleric and carrion seem to be most popular. You also need to take into consideration the fact, that different world bosses seem to have different drop tables (most likely it is zone dependant, but may have some individual tweaks). For example Claw [Shiverpeaks] often drops norn weapons with shaman prefix, while drops from Golem [Maguuma] seem to contain disproportionate amount of carrion verdants.

Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November

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Posted by: Theftwind.8976

Theftwind.8976

Interesting read. Thanks!
Just out of curiosity: Does you knowledge influence your playstyle in any way? e.g. do you keep on playing when you start to get some good drops?

Currently if I get on a lucky streak I will try to extend my session as long as possible. I am thinking about setting aside a whole day of gaming and track each and every drop to see if I get a streak or not and then do it over a day or two later. If it is a fixed seed I should see the same pattern of results. That is going to take a lot of effort however and I would rather the devs tell us if it is a fixed or random seed they are using in their rng.

Theftwind (HoD)

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Posted by: Labjax.2465

Labjax.2465

FWIW, here’s what random.org says on the subject. Kind of interesting – they use atmospheric noise apparently.

RANDOM.ORG offers true random numbers to anyone on the Internet. The randomness comes from atmospheric noise, which for many purposes is better than the pseudo-random number algorithms typically used in computer programs.

http://www.random.org/

But yeah, your typical seeding setup is not perfect. However, I don’t think the typical algorithms are poor enough for your average person to predict anything without running thousands of iterations at a time (which is highly unlikely in most scenarios).

So the good news is, the tin foil hat is a bit understandable; I’m not sure there’s a single algorithm/seeding process that is perfectly random. The bad news is, the imperfections are probably not significant enough to justify the paranoia that you might have about a particular character, account, etc.

As far as I know, others are correct that seeding can create some weird “streaks” of luck, but ultimately, it’s a temporary thing – not something that’s going to stick with a permanent thing like a character.

Keep in mind that even true randomness is going to result in some people being “luckier” than others – at least in the short-term. Have you ever noticed how at the end of some big events, you’ll see people linking highly rare items that they’ve just looted? I’d bet you anything those are the anomalies at the events – the outlier “lotto” winners who, out of a large pool of people/rolls, got a lucky die roll.

Or words to that effect.

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Posted by: havellian.4073

havellian.4073

What I am about to say, in the view of most will almost certainly be an anecdote and probably worthless in the eyes of statisticians… but for what it’s worth…
Everything (slightly) rare i’ve gotten have come in doubles and triples. 3 crystal guardians while opening champ bags, 2 mini tequatls, 2 foxfire in one tree, etc. etc…

Of course I hardly get anything rare and when i do, it turns out not to be very valuable so this is not a good sample at all, but at least based on my experience, the system certainly doesn’t seem all that random. Anyone else experience something similar?

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

What I am about to say, in the view of most will almost certainly be an anecdote and probably worthless in the eyes of statisticians… but for what it’s worth…
Everything (slightly) rare i’ve gotten have come in doubles and triples. 3 crystal guardians while opening champ bags, 2 mini tequatls, 2 foxfire in one tree, etc. etc…

Of course I hardly get anything rare and when i do, it turns out not to be very valuable so this is not a good sample at all, but at least based on my experience, the system certainly doesn’t seem all that random. Anyone else experience something similar?

That’s pretty typical for random results with odds in the 1-30% range. When you flip a coin you don’t get HTHTHTHT. Instead, you maybe get a couple of heads, a tail, a few more heads, a few tails, etc.

Tracking over short periods of time, you’ll see a pattern (hey, today, I’m getting heads 58% of the time — did they nerf the tails drop rate?).

People are really, really clever about spotting patterns (it’s one of our survival skills) and our intuition about randomness suffers.

Even state-supported lotteries (some of the most over-analyzed sets of random numbers we’ll ever see) show patterns, but only because we don’t have a lot of data from them. The question isn’t, “how many times have we seen 32 show up since the lottery began,” it’s “what are the odds of seeing 32 the next time?”

So in response to the OP: yes, the RNG system is truly random, as far as any players have been able to determine from the data collected. According to John Smith, the data he sees also demonstrates true randomness.

(While it’s true that computers only simulate ‘true’ randomness, we wouldn’t be able to measure any difference between that & simulated RNG — there just won’t be enough “dice rolls” to demonstrate any meaningful difference.)

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: aRestless.6213

aRestless.6213

Many people here already wrote smart things about randomness and RNGs, but I wanted to stress the “seed thing”:

From a developer’s perspective, a seperate RNG or seed for each player makes no sense at all. The same RNG will be used for many events and players. For example, if you deal a critical hit is also decided by an RNG and so is the (partially) random movement of NPCs.

While it may be true that pseudo random number generators (and especially those who are used in a non-cryptographic environment) put out odd patterns, the amount of queries to the RNG between your loot-drops or even between two blows with your weapon is so incredibly high, that any pattern that might exist will be long gone when you let the RNG roll the dice for you the next time. So: Even if the RNG isn’t truly random, the number of events needing the RNG between two of your dice rolls definitively is.

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Posted by: Otaur.9268

Otaur.9268

I have a bad seed and would pay to be re-seeded… I almost bought a second account just for this, but decided against it since i have put so much time and money into my current account. It would just be nice to get more drops. When you see ppl getting ascended chests all the time in WvW and PvE, it would be nice to know what those are. Although, I have gotten a few Exterminator’s, Guild Defender’s, and Truth’s…

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Posted by: Astralporing.1957

Astralporing.1957

I have a bad seed and would pay to be re-seeded…

Sigh, and here we go again. Read the thread, seriously. Especially the post directly above yours.

Actions, not words.
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Posted by: Labjax.2465

Labjax.2465

When you see ppl getting ascended chests all the time in WvW and PvE, it would be nice to know what those are.

I guarantee you that you are witnessing the outliers. Next time says they got an ascended chest / links one, ask the rest of the group what they got. Bet you it’ll be the same random crap that you did.

Or words to that effect.

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Posted by: Piogre.2164

Piogre.2164

I have a bad seed and would pay to be re-seeded… I almost bought a second account just for this, but decided against it since i have put so much time and money into my current account. It would just be nice to get more drops. When you see ppl getting ascended chests all the time in WvW and PvE, it would be nice to know what those are. Although, I have gotten a few Exterminator’s, Guild Defender’s, and Truth’s…

I should point something out here.

Following a drop you get, you have a large variety of possibilities for what you get next. There is a small chance you will get the same thing, even if that thing is a green. But I can almost guarantee that your chance of getting an exotic (any exotic) is less likely- and yet, people get exotics all the time. The thing to remember here is that this chance of getting the same thing you just got, while small, is re-rolled countless times during a single play session, just like the chance of getting an exotic. And yet, when you do get a repeat, you remember it.

I’m not saying there is no issue with the RNG- I’ve heard a lot of (unverified) stuff about some accounts having statistically better chances of forge precursors. I’m just saying that your example of a repeat drop is not necessarily evidence for this.

[VIG], SoR
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Posted by: Zok.4956

Zok.4956

That’s actually one of the flaws of computers generating RNG values. Every RNG type function needs a SEED number (not the same as a possible ACCOUNT or CHARACTER seed number the OP is speculating about) to generate the RNG value. WHERE this seed number comes from is USUALLY the system real time clock…..so similar values ARE more possible (or likely) if the RNG values are generated very close together. Again, speculation based on programming experience, not any inside knowledge of what Anet’s code does.

From my experience, this usually is not.

And I would say, if a programmer bases the pseudo random Generator seed on the real-time-clock and not on some source of enthropy (like /dev/random in linux) than the programmer has made an error.

There is a difference in algorithms that have to generate a “unique number” (for which the RTC is a acceptable source) and ones that have to generate a “random number” (for which the RTC is not a acceptable source).

Greetings.

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Posted by: Elidath.5679

Elidath.5679

There is a difference in algorithms that have to generate a “unique number” (for which the RTC is a acceptable source) and ones that have to generate a “random number” (for which the RTC is not a acceptable source).

As for the first part, it is true only in a single thread/single processing unit environment. On a multithread and/or clustered environment, multiple process can access the same clock value and generate the same output. In fact, I’ve seen this problem only two weeks ago : a (bad) production system used the clock to determine the session ID of connected users. Two users connected at the same time. Wasn’t pretty, you can imagine ^^’
As for the randmoness, you can use part of the clock value in certain conditions: sure, the date/hours component are easily predictable, but the millisecond value usually is totally random from a human perception. If you know your calls will be few and far between, it is a perfectly valid method. Now, in a MMORPG, with a huge amount of rolls/second, it would indeed be too weak.

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Posted by: Zok.4956

Zok.4956

There is a difference in algorithms that have to generate a “unique number” (for which the RTC is a acceptable source) and ones that have to generate a “random number” (for which the RTC is not a acceptable source).

As for the first part, it is true only in a single thread/single processing unit environment. On a multithread and/or clustered environment, multiple process can access the same clock value and generate the same output.

Yes, of course, the RTC method works only if it really is uniqe, which means that no two (or more) calls ever get the same value. So the granularity of the clock should be so fine/small that there is no “simultaneousness” within one clock cycle or (if thats not practical) there should some other methods to prevent this.

Greetings.

Is the RNG system truthly random?

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Posted by: rhodoc.2381

rhodoc.2381

I dont think it is truly random. Like the mystic forge that gives you + 1 tier. You throw 250 and it gives you between 40 and 200 right. (40 + 200)/2 makes 120. So i have to get avarage of 120 in the long term. But i can say that this is more likely avarage 60-70.

[VcY] Velocity – Gargamell

Is the RNG system truthly random?

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Posted by: Manasa Devi.7958

Manasa Devi.7958

I dont think it is truly random. Like the mystic forge that gives you + 1 tier. You throw 250 and it gives you between 40 and 200 right. (40 + 200)/2 makes 120. So i have to get avarage of 120 in the long term. But i can say that this is more likely avarage 60-70.

Those numbers don’t have to be generated with equal chance to be considered truly random. When smaller stacks have a higher chance to turn up than bigger stacks, the average is dragged down. Averages over non-linear sets are weighted averages and involve a more complex calculation than (lowest possibility + highest possibility) / 2.

Consider lotteries: some people win nothing (0), some people win 10 million. This doesn’t mean that participating people win (10,000,000 + 0)/2 = 5 million on average.

Is the RNG system truthly random?

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Posted by: aRestless.6213

aRestless.6213

As some of you might know there exists something called Law of large Numbers which says, that if a statistical experiment is performed a large number of times, the portion of the different possible outcomes will eventually converge to their probability. Meaning: If you kill and loot a mob over and over and over again, and the chance of dropping a precursor is, let’s say, 0.1%, then eventually and approximateley 0.1% of your overall drops will be precursors.

BUT for small probabilites the Law of large Numbers should better be called “Law of freaking huge numbers which are not likely to ever reach”. Every experiment which any of you performs is way too small to conclude anything and if your big samples are of the form “I know so many people which…” that’s heavily influenced by confirmation bias as already mentioned before in this thread.

To give you an example: At least in germany, there is a common belief that babies are more likely to be born when there’s a full moon – a belief, that is shared by many nurses. However – there is no statistical evidence for that. None at all. And the same thing happens here.

Never lose track of your friends again, with Who’s Talking for Overwolf

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Is the RNG system truthly random?

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Posted by: tigirius.9014

tigirius.9014

When it comes to game it’s not. There’s always a margin for error, the thing is that RNG really isn’t the biggest problem in this game, it’s the economy. The game is made so that the developers are the gold sellers. In that environment it’s always against the players because the items most needed are squeezed until they become so expensive new players have two choices, spend loads of money to convert to buy the things they need to catchup or spend 10 months farming by which time their buddies might have moved on to another game entirely.

It’s really not as brilliant as people say it is what it is imo is a very eastern model sometimes it gets more extreme than this game however it always starts with games with the same model this game has and becomes bigger and bigger until finally players are charged per second for being logged in like they do on many titles in China.

Also you have to look at the legal side of things. Recently a UK court ruled that games cannot advertise themselves as F2P if they indeed require some sort of purchase direct or otherwise in order to progress in the game within a normal time frame. That means, that all this real life cost to catchup to your buddies when you’re new because that’s the only reasonable way your character will progress would be illegal in some places, and no it doesn’t matter that some people have gotten lucky and built up funds because they actually won the lottery in loot tables, it’s an overall bad design economically.

To use a modern day analogy, this economy would be like being born an adult, walking out into the world and relying on a not so random chance of actually finding cash on mobs you see around you, but with a twist, the cash you are looking for sometimes disappears before you can loot it being replaced with lint because of an adjustment to how much the economist watching you thinks you should get, and an unfair system called DR which pretty much removes loot entirely if the “fates” believe you’ve gotten too much already! “He killed three mobs so far and looted $20 that must mean he’s not a real person, so therefore he’s only going to get lint until an unknown timer goes off”

That’s basically what’s happening in this game. Oh and I almost forgot, the magic find thing doesn’t actually increase the quantity and barely scratches the surface for most on making the quality of what you find better so you might actually find 1 diamond ring 1 time in a year and then never find even another gold ring the entire year afterwords with this system.

The RNG problem I’m seeing however is in the crafting materials and in essential things like needing 6 of a single type of enchants for armor. Whoever thought this was a good idea should not be making economic decisions for anyone, really, because enchants are absolutely a must especially in a game in which balance is an everchanging thing in PVE. It’s not at all simple or cheap to change out your build in this game and trying to craft these items yourself even at 500 gets really expensive when lodestones are involved.

Balance Team: Please Fix Mine Toolbelt Positioning!

Is the RNG system truthly random?

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Posted by: Brother Grimm.5176

Brother Grimm.5176

I have a bad seed and would pay to be re-seeded…

….so many tin-foil hats to distribute and so little time…..ORDER UP!

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We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances