Guild Wars 2

So China has passed a law that in May 2017 all “Loot Boxes” must have their odds revealed for contents within. This should include Black Lion Chests.

It’ll be interesting to find out how bad/decent some game’s loot box odds really are.

Can we draw any parallels from their odds once brought out into the open?

Depends on how precise the revealed odds are. If its numbers it’s one thing. If it’s categories such as common, uncommon, rare, very rare then you’re not going to get much from that than general info.

Since the chinese version of GW2 is different in many things from the EU/US release, the numbers from china will tell you next to nothing about the odds on a given item in the EU/US.
Unless ofc ANet would state that the odds are the same no matter the version, but I doubt they’ll give us any information about these things.

I think they will have to be probability %, as I doubt China will play the rare/common game. The have stated that “publishers are lucky that they(China’s Ministry of Culture) haven’t banned them outright”.

Regional odds are something I find much more likely. “Here’s China’s odds. Everywhere else has their own table.”

Essence Snow.3194:

So China has passed a law that in May 2017 all “Loot Boxes” must have their odds revealed for contents within. This should include Black Lion Chests.

It’ll be interesting to find out how bad/decent some game’s loot box odds really are.

Can we draw any parallels from their odds once brought out into the open?

Even when people know the odd, many will still buy BL Chests, a few will stop, and some will start.

For stuff that drops in game for free, I am not so sure posting numbers is a good thing — part of the fun is the community getting together to determine drop rates. Since it’s possible to collect ‘enough data’ on nearly all in-game RNG boxes, I think it’s more interesting if the rates are ‘hidden’ for us to learn.

Transparency is a good thing, for the stuff that costs RL money, but I won’t expect it will matter that much in the long run.

Considering this applies to boxes that involve real money I think it’s a good thing, I’ve always felt like gambling takes advantage of human weakness. There are those who gamble responsibly but there are many more who overspend (that’s the whole reason this is used in so many places). Perhaps having the data available will at least scare some people off from getting suckered in…

Lethalvriend.1723:

Considering this applies to boxes that involve real money I think it’s a good thing, I’ve always felt like gambling takes advantage of human weakness. There are those who gamble responsibly but there are many more who overspend (that’s the whole reason this is used in so many places). Perhaps having the data available will at least scare some people off from getting suckered in…

Don’t hold your breath. Having the data available doesn’t get people to play craps instead of blackjack or even blackjack instead of roulette or roulette instead of the other pure-luck games at casinos. Having the data available doesn’t stop people from expecting to win, when the house has the edge.

BL chests are a lot of fun if you are paying for the frisson of excitement you get just before opening. The contents have always been (and always will be) garbage, except for just enough lucky people to keep things interesting.

The odds used to be reported on the Wiki but people seem to have stopped updating the drop rate page. But having them didn’t stop people buying keys, it didn’t even stop them believing they would be the rare exception who would get something really good quickly and cheaply and being disappointed when it didn’t happen.

But I do think it’s a good idea to have the odds published. At least then people have the option of making an informed decision.

Illconceived Was Na beat me to the punch. Everyone knows that the odds are always in the casino’s favor, but they still flock to them. Greed will always trump sense.

Good law. Why did it take China to come up with it -.-

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

BL chests are a lot of fun if you are paying for the frisson of excitement you get just before opening. The contents have always been (and always will be) garbage, except for just enough lucky people to keep things interesting.

That’s not “fun”, that’s a gambling addiction.

And it’s absolutely ridiculous that such a backwards country as China is passing digital goods consumer laws 30 years ahead of the US’s. There should have been a law like this since the late 80s, if our country wasn’t consistently lead by people two generations behind the countries current needs.

Gerrand.3085:

Good law. Why did it take China to come up with it -.-

Because businesses and accountants don’t like transparency where the money they make is based on perceived value. Using TP as an example, the price of some Precurors are incredibly low, despite the fact that the legendary crafting should had otherwise set a floor on the price. It costs 500g to craft the Energizer, but they sell for 150g on TP because theres very little demand for them.

starlinvf.1358:

Gerrand.3085:

Good law. Why did it take China to come up with it -.-

Because businesses and accountants don’t like transparency where the money they make is based on perceived value.

And that is exactly why the law would be good.

Good new requirement for the gaming industry. Now if only the rest of the world would adopt it.

I don´t think China is a backward country… They are surprisingly advanced in a lot of things. Even their questionable things are very modern…

Why do you think we got the new preview feature? QoL, lol?

Most likely so that the Chinese version of GW2 can easily note chances there (I dont know the law so I dont know if common/rare/exotic/etc is enough or if you need values). Of course we’ll never see that in the EU/US version of GW2.

jheryn.8390:

Illconceived Was Na beat me to the punch. Everyone knows that the odds are always in the casino’s favor, but they still flock to them. Greed will always trump sense.

It’s not about greed. It’s a flat gambling addiction. People chase the high of that possible rare win. The very fact that it’s so hard to pull of is what makes it so intoxicating.

It ruins people’s lives and affects their friends and families. Not so much in games with hard limits on spending but absolutely in ones that have no ceiling.

It’s not something that should be encouraged on principle or on the fact that it incentivizes manipulative practices because it’s easy money.

Why put the effort into creating great, creative things people can by directly when some “uber rare bauble” item in a lottery box will net you far more money via whales and addicts?

starlinvf.1358:

Gerrand.3085:

Good law. Why did it take China to come up with it -.-

Because businesses and accountants don’t like transparency where the money they make is based on perceived value. Using TP as an example, the price of some Precurors are incredibly low, despite the fact that the legendary crafting should had otherwise set a floor on the price. It costs 500g to craft the Energizer, but they sell for 150g on TP because theres very little demand for them.

Legendary crafting sets a soft ceiling, not so much a floor.

In effect, if you can craft any precursor for 500-800g, it’s not going to sell for much more than that because crafters will undercut the price. However, if the drop rate is higher than demand, it could sell for less.

Ardid.7203:

I don´t think China is a backward country… They are surprisingly advanced in a lot of things. Even their questionable things are very modern…

Indeed – China is still middle-of-the-road on a per-capita basis but because of the population, they’re a wealthy country for trading purposes. And because political decisions are based on long-term stability rather than short-term electoral victories, they can pass legislation that would be very difficult in a democracy. That can be a good or a bad thing; it’s up to them to make it work.

I thought we already had this feature, I’ve been using preview on BL chests….

sephiroth.4217:

I thought we already had this feature, I’ve been using preview on BL chests….

It shows you what they may drop, but not how likely something like a “Rare” or “Very Rare” drop is. Or if there’s variation within a group. (“Rare” may actually cover a range of drop chances, for example.)

Never tell me the odds. – H. Solo

Substance E.4852:

jheryn.8390:

Illconceived Was Na beat me to the punch. Everyone knows that the odds are always in the casino’s favor, but they still flock to them. Greed will always trump sense.

It’s not about greed. It’s a flat gambling addiction. People chase the high of that possible rare win. The very fact that it’s so hard to pull of is what makes it so intoxicating.

It ruins people’s lives and affects their friends and families. Not so much in games with hard limits on spending but absolutely in ones that have no ceiling.

Not everyone who gambles is an addict. Addicts will find a way to to their addiction regardless; removing RNG boxes from games isn’t going to do much for them other than to take away one opportunity.

I think you’d have to provide some clear numbers of how many people buy keys due to addiction versus how many buy them for fun. With only anecdotal evidence to go by, i don’t think it’s a big enough problem that ANet (or any gaming company) should change policies to address it.

(Although, I think it would be great if there was a way for one to set a cash spend limit on accounts, for parents and others who might want to implement one.)

I’m sympathetic to addiction issues, for personal and humanitarian reasons. All the same, I don’t think it makes sense to include it as part of the discussion as to whether ANet/Western Hemisphere ought to publish drop rates on cashbox RNG (and the consequences if they end up being forced to, due to laws in China).

Ben K.6238:

Ardid.7203:

I don´t think China is a backward country… They are surprisingly advanced in a lot of things. Even their questionable things are very modern…

Indeed – China is still middle-of-the-road on a per-capita basis but because of the population, they’re a wealthy country for trading purposes. And because political decisions are based on long-term stability rather than short-term electoral victories, they can pass legislation that would be very difficult in a democracy. That can be a good or a bad thing; it’s up to them to make it work.

Also in a single party system it is very obvious which party is at fault if things are not doing well. With a 2+ party system you can always blame someone else.

As for these rates … they are probably completely determined by the Chinese publisher. ANet might not even know anything about those rates for the Chinese version.

Found this topic on the subject so I will condense it here:

For those that have no idea of what this is about, some background from Gamasutra

From the Devs part I would like to know how that Chinese decision affect the company and if that means only cash boxes (a.k.a. Black Lion Chest) or every, single, container in the game. (Champion Bags, PvP Boxes, PoP Up Chests, Crafting Bags. Just to mention a few.)

Also, where did you guys get this information that US/EU version is different from the Chinese one?

Wolf Fivousix.4319:

Also, where did you guys get this information that US/EU version is different from the Chinese one?

From ANet.

Basically, word came out that there were some unpopular things coming, but they were for the Chinese version only. The Devs posted and made it clear that those things (Like the VIP System) were not going to be in the game for us.

Hmm I disagree with the article’s conclusion about hurting sales because people are stupid when it comes to probability.

“1 in 10 chance of getting x” → “I’ll just buy 10” → “Maybe one more …”

Since one needs Gems to purchase said ‘Loot Boxes’, does it even apply? The microtransaction is not for the ‘Loot Box’, but for the Gems that may be used to purchase a plethora of items in the Gem Store.

Regardless, I don’t think Chinese law will have much affect in the West.

Ben K.6238:

Indeed – China is still middle-of-the-road on a per-capita basis but because of the population, they’re a wealthy country for trading purposes. And because political decisions are based on long-term stability rather than short-term electoral victories, they can pass legislation that would be very difficult in a democracy. That can be a good or a bad thing; it’s up to them to make it work.

And that “long term stability” decision making is also why having the most controlling censorship programs in the world.

China looks like a great country because the PRC does it’s best to make sure that neither foreigners nor citizens see the darker sides.

Wait is this a joke? Or did China actually pass a law that is that ridiculous?

mykemyk.7456:

Wait is this a joke? Or did China actually pass a law that is that ridiculous?

Why is it ridiculous? Why shouldn’t game companies publish the actual odds?

I have seen F2P games that have wikis with all the odds. Odds that are upwards of 98% returning “crap”, with the rarest items being in the 1/100,000 range. And then the community made spreadsheets to calculate the average returns, showing that the boxes were hugely crap. And people still spent hundreds or thousands of dollars buying those things.

dont be greedy, farming and gear are super easy in this game anyway

mykemyk.7456:

Wait is this a joke? Or did China actually pass a law that is that ridiculous?

Well if you paid $1 for a 1 in 1000 chance to get $1 worth back, would you gamble?

Problem with games is that they are completely unregulated. Sure some might play fair, but others wont. When physical casinos do that, its illegal. When games do it via boxes… they are laughing all the way to the bank.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

I think you’d have to provide some clear numbers of how many people buy keys due to addiction versus how many buy them for fun. With only anecdotal evidence to go by, i don’t think it’s a big enough problem that ANet (or any gaming company) should change policies to address it.

What do you consider to be the break point exactly? I have a feeling that many would consider buying $100 worth of keys a month to be innocent fun but would side-eye someone who spends $100 a month on lottery tickets despite the latter actually having some chance of a tangible payout.

You also don’t necessarily need to btfo your savings to be an addict. The nature of addiction is the inability to stop.

Putting in the % to win might not make that much of a difference, but it still might help give some people pause when they learn the chances of ever getting that “finally a win” release are all but impossible, or keep them from ever dipping their toe in the first place.

China, the land of (no/poorly) upheld regulations, isn’t about to slap a law like this on lottery boxes unless they were fairly convinced it would make a difference.

Palador.2170:

From ANet.

Basically, word came out that there were some unpopular things coming, but they were for the Chinese version only. The Devs posted and made it clear that those things (Like the VIP System) were not going to be in the game for us.

Thx Palador. I did some digging and seems like the version differences are aimed to monetization and user acquisition/retention. Any other major system than VIP that you know off?

Which brings me to topic, this version changes doesn’t seem to reflect a proper difference in game balancing, therefore I would assume drop rates remain the same overall.

Although there is plenty of drop research out there made by users, I would be very interested in officially knowing more about ArenaNet’s use of multiple drop tables. Or even if they still use them.