Guild Wars 2

Okay, I just noticed this last night and it threw me off.

About 95% of all items on the TP are taking hikes in price. So I asked why, and mapchat said speculation of inflation because of HoT. Okay, cool, but… T2 mats? Uhhh?

Not quite sure I understand why Charged Cores and Charged Lodes, basically anything charged is sinking in price faster than a brick.

And then one person told me they believe that Ancient wood is to be used in Guild Hall construction, hence the massive price hike on that.

Yet the price on Ecto is staying pretty much steady, as is Ori.

So my question, should I devote my time to farming Ancient wood for whatever my purposes for it may be?

I use to have a famous intuition for the game market but anet effectively killed that with the dawn of Ascended weapons. Only to get worse with Ascended armor…

We have 9 days and in 9 day, I want to do something… I want to gather. But I am not sure what I should gather… Just once I would like to use what time I have to my advantage and gather items that will be valuable with the dawn on this expansion.

Help?

I usually pick a zone and just go around and kill things, do events and harvest everything. Sometimes I do it while I am doing map completion on a char that does not have it. Sometimes a low level area and sometimes a mid level and then sometimes a higher level. Sometimes I do several zones, it all depends on what I feel like at the time.
Yes I know the new legendaries don’t need the vanilla map completion for making them but I still like to get all the wp’s and stuff to un-fog what I can, lol.

If you want sure bets I would do the follow:

Ascended items. Run as many daily fractal tiers as you can. Ascended items are becoming salvageable with HoT and will drop items needed for legendary item construction. Can’t go wrong here.

PvP potions. You can get 6 PvP potions a day. Once the new reward tracks launch with HoT they will give shards of glory which are a tradable PvP currency that is used to make legendary weapons. Many people don’t like/want to PvP so these will be expensive. If you have PvP potions saved up you can get a few of these shards on launch day.

Anything at vendor price. If you buy something at vendor price the only way it can go is up. Most you can lose is 15% exchange fee. Since John Smith specifically said he wanted to fix broken markets it is likely that at least some of the things that have been sitting at vendor value for years will see a fix.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Anything at vendor price. If you buy something at vendor price the only way it can go is up. Most you can lose is 15% exchange fee. Since John Smith specifically said he wanted to fix broken markets it is likely that at least some of the things that have been sitting at vendor value for years will see a fix.

Um, by this, are you telling me that in the case of the commonly known expensive item: The Charged Lodestone is now “fixed”?

Oh and why Thick leather sections and Small Fangs bounced up in price?

These are the “fixes”? Is that what you mean?

(in a way make sense, since Ascended armor, we learned Anet has a habit of making otherwise useless items extremely valuable in a blink… Silk cough)

I’m not trying to be rude, I’m just trying to understand the methods behind Anet’s madness

Jaymee.1560:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Anything at vendor price. If you buy something at vendor price the only way it can go is up. Most you can lose is 15% exchange fee. Since John Smith specifically said he wanted to fix broken markets it is likely that at least some of the things that have been sitting at vendor value for years will see a fix.

Um, by this, are you telling me that in the case of the commonly known expensive item: The Charged Lodestone is now “fixed”?

I’m not trying to be rude, I’m just trying to understand the methods behind Anet’s madness

Their methods are they are trying to eliminate free gold coming into the game and create a cushion before HoT drops, creating new cash faucets and material farms, and the new map system is going to let players earn rewards more consistently compared to just RNG bags, as each zone will have a level appropriate reward cycle, like Orr giving out giant eyes and t6 materials, and blood tide giving linen scraps and the like when you complete an event.

I think another thing they are trying to do is increase he incentive to craft rather than just grind and buy what you want off the TP, judging by the dungeon reward nerfs and moving that gold to fractals, which is and of itself a gold sink because of ascended materials.

[quote=5609105;TheLastNobody.8319:
I think another thing they are trying to do is increase he incentive to craft rather than just grind and buy what you want off the TP, judging by the dungeon reward nerfs and moving that gold to fractals, which is and of itself a gold sink because of ascended materials. [/quote]

Which is funny to me as I am the type of player who does more crafting than battlefield fighting

After the announcement of massive re-balancing, people immediately ran off to speculate. The fun part is that for every person who’ll walk away from the changes rich, there will likely be 10 who will end up losing hundreds of gold. Really good market players will likely make a fortune on the price changes even before HoT hits just from people trying to speculate.

Personally? I am going to spend the limited time I have online before HoT to get a bit more gold + dungeon tokens. Tokens will be significantly harder to get, and as JS said, he is planning to keep gold valuable. Currently I don’t have enough capital to try playing the HoT market lottery since I bought a few items I expect to go up in price for personal use, so I won’t worry too much about it.

In a recent announcement about HoT a dev stated that there were some materials that had been under utilized. That sparked speculation on what materials will be the new silk.

Jaymee.1560:

Okay, I just noticed this last night and it threw me off.

About 95% of all items on the TP are taking hikes in price. So I asked why, and mapchat said speculation of inflation because of HoT. Okay, cool, but… T2 mats? Uhhh?

Not quite sure I understand why Charged Cores and Charged Lodes, basically anything charged is sinking in price faster than a brick.

And then one person told me they believe that Ancient wood is to be used in Guild Hall construction, hence the massive price hike on that.

Yet the price on Ecto is staying pretty much steady, as is Ori.

So my question, should I devote my time to farming Ancient wood for whatever my purposes for it may be?

I use to have a famous intuition for the game market but anet effectively killed that with the dawn of Ascended weapons. Only to get worse with Ascended armor…

We have 9 days and in 9 day, I want to do something… I want to gather. But I am not sure what I should gather… Just once I would like to use what time I have to my advantage and gather items that will be valuable with the dawn on this expansion.

Help?

Well they announced that there will be changes in drop rates to make really cheap mats have value and lower the price of more expensive mats by providing more reliable and player directed methods of attaining them. That’s causing some players to go into hoarding mode. So players are shotgunning the market. Buying a bit of everything.

Speculation is going to cause more market chaos than the actual changes.

Your best bet is probably to sacrifice a goat to the great twenty-sided die in the sky and do a barrel roll. If that doesn’t work, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Labjax.2465:

Speculation is going to cause more market chaos than the actual changes.

Your best bet is probably to sacrifice a goat to the great twenty-sided die in the sky and do a barrel roll. If that doesn’t work, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Human sacrifice?

Behellagh.1468:

Jaymee.1560:

Okay, I just noticed this last night and it threw me off.

About 95% of all items on the TP are taking hikes in price. So I asked why, and mapchat said speculation of inflation because of HoT. Okay, cool, but… T2 mats? Uhhh?

Not quite sure I understand why Charged Cores and Charged Lodes, basically anything charged is sinking in price faster than a brick.

And then one person told me they believe that Ancient wood is to be used in Guild Hall construction, hence the massive price hike on that.

Yet the price on Ecto is staying pretty much steady, as is Ori.

So my question, should I devote my time to farming Ancient wood for whatever my purposes for it may be?

I use to have a famous intuition for the game market but anet effectively killed that with the dawn of Ascended weapons. Only to get worse with Ascended armor…

We have 9 days and in 9 day, I want to do something… I want to gather. But I am not sure what I should gather… Just once I would like to use what time I have to my advantage and gather items that will be valuable with the dawn on this expansion.

Help?

Well they announced that there will be changes in drop rates to make really cheap mats have value and lower the price of more expensive mats by providing more reliable and player directed methods of attaining them. That’s causing some players to go into hoarding mode. So players are shotgunning the market. Buying a bit of everything.

That ship sailed a long time ago.

All that now buying out the tp have my empathy cause they hopped too late on the train

1) T2 : For ascended crafting. T2 is a material that level 80 rarely get, but still need for ascended crafting. With raid and fractal a lot of people are probably trying to get their ascended armor/weapons ready for HoT or stocking them. T3 and T4 is in the same situation.

2) People think that lodestone will be more on par with the expansion. Meaning that thing like Molten and Glacial will receive more new recipe, but charged core will probably won’t receive new ones. People are waiting to buy them cheaper. In the Q&A with John Smith, he does seem to like the charged lodestone is more expansive, so I don’t know.

3) I don’t think I saw any of that, but guild hall will probably take a lot of different material.

My guess is wait and see.

TheLastNobody.8319:

Labjax.2465:

Speculation is going to cause more market chaos than the actual changes.

Your best bet is probably to sacrifice a goat to the great twenty-sided die in the sky and do a barrel roll. If that doesn’t work, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Human sacrifice?

Yeah, you could try human sacrifice next. As long as it’s not an actual human. Just use a blow-up doll instead.

Zaron.1987:

Behellagh.1468:

Jaymee.1560:

Okay, I just noticed this last night and it threw me off.

About 95% of all items on the TP are taking hikes in price. So I asked why, and mapchat said speculation of inflation because of HoT. Okay, cool, but… T2 mats? Uhhh?

Not quite sure I understand why Charged Cores and Charged Lodes, basically anything charged is sinking in price faster than a brick.

And then one person told me they believe that Ancient wood is to be used in Guild Hall construction, hence the massive price hike on that.

Yet the price on Ecto is staying pretty much steady, as is Ori.

So my question, should I devote my time to farming Ancient wood for whatever my purposes for it may be?

I use to have a famous intuition for the game market but anet effectively killed that with the dawn of Ascended weapons. Only to get worse with Ascended armor…

We have 9 days and in 9 day, I want to do something… I want to gather. But I am not sure what I should gather… Just once I would like to use what time I have to my advantage and gather items that will be valuable with the dawn on this expansion.

Help?

Well they announced that there will be changes in drop rates to make really cheap mats have value and lower the price of more expensive mats by providing more reliable and player directed methods of attaining them. That’s causing some players to go into hoarding mode. So players are shotgunning the market. Buying a bit of everything.

That ship sailed a long time ago.

All that now buying out the tp have my empathy cause they hopped too late on the train

Was explaining why, not suggesting a course of action.

Jaymee.1560:

About 95% of all items on the TP are taking hikes in price. So I asked why, and mapchat said speculation of inflation because of HoT.

Mapchat reflects conventional wisdom, which is totally lacking in wisdom. 90% of the time when someone says inflation it means ‘I have no idea what I am talking about but things are changing and change is bad and inflation is bad so inflation is coming’. Don’t read much into it.

Prices are going up across the board because a big patch is about to hit and people are speculating on what changes it might bring. Unlike a real world stock market, it’s pretty difficult to take short positions on commodities in GW2, only long positions – that is, if I want to bet that some item will drop in price, the best I can really do is not hold any of it, while on world equity markets I would be buying a ton of put options.

So when there’s a surge of speculative activity the surge is mostly long bets, which pushes prices up. That’s what you are seeing now.

Jaymee.1560:

Okay, cool, but… T2 mats? Uhhh?

Izzy mentioned on reddit that new players dabble in crafting and that involves a lot of T1 and T2 mats. With an expansion hitting and lot of new/returning players and new characters being rolled, there’s a pretty reasonable expectation of a lot of low level crafting going on.

Jaymee.1560:

Not quite sure I understand why Charged Cores and Charged Lodes, basically anything charged is sinking in price faster than a brick.

Some weeks ago someone on reddit data-mined some of the upcoming map bonus rewards and found that the rotation includes cores and lodestones; Jon Peters re-iterated in his recent economy post that map bonus rewards are going to provide a direct method of farming a lot of materials. With a much more reliable way to farm charged cores and lodestones imminent, people are (rightly) expecting their price to drop down, with the presumption that people will target those for map rewards.

Jaymee.1560:

And then one person told me they believe that Ancient wood is to be used in Guild Hall construction, hence the massive price hike on that.

Yet the price on Ecto is staying pretty much steady, as is Ori.

So my question, should I devote my time to farming Ancient wood for whatever my purposes for it may be?

Well now we are getting into markets that are pure speculation. Who knows what guild halls will require material-wise? If it takes a lot of wood then sure, those price increases are justified and we could see them go higher – if it doesn’t the market may correct right back. If you have a strong feeling about it go ahead and make a bet; personally I have no strong feeling one way or another and would be happy to sell into that market to fund bets elsewhere.

Ecto is so consistently steady that I barely ever want to make big moves in that market – A.Net has intervened directly into it (Crystalline Dust) enough that I don’t expect any wild swings, and I’d only want to get involved if it looked like it was starting to get well outside of historical bounds where A.Net has started to intervene. Call it a push.

Jaymee.1560:

We have 9 days and in 9 day, I want to do something… I want to gather. But I am not sure what I should gather… Just once I would like to use what time I have to my advantage and gather items that will be valuable with the dawn on this expansion.

The big piece of general advice is that a new expansion is about to hit and everyone is going to want the new stuff, not the old stuff. I think that, in general, big bets on old content with new content about to hit are naive – when push comes to shove people will be looking to sell what they have to raise cash for new materials to craft new items.

Plus, we have a dungeon gold nerf that’s going to exacerbate an exodus from that content – who is going to be running dungeons for coin with a whole bunch of new content to do? That throttles new gold injections into the economy and puts pressure on prices downward.

Heading into the expansion I want cash. Lots of cash.