Guild Wars 2

I explored 16 maps since the last weeks and have noticed a significant low “Drop rate” of Black Lion Keys for Map completion. If I am not wrong, I count only 2 keys for 16 maps. I did World completion with all characters I have, but never received so little reward. Was there any change to the drop rate?

The wiki has drop-rate research for BLC keys by map completion: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Map_completion/Drop_Rate

It’s around a 25% chance of getting a key… and you don’t get them for the starter cities (or southsun cove, according to the wiki). Of those 16 maps, how many were starter cities?

Sometimes RNG just sucks.

~EW

There are no starter citys in my calculation (after 24 Characters with map completion, that fact is well known to me). Explored:

- Bloodtide Coast
- Lornar’s Pass
- Timberline Falls
- Gendarran Fields
- Harathi Hinterlands
- Queensdale
- Kessex Hills
- Brisban Wildlands
- Metrica Province
- The Silverwastes
- Dry Top
- Bloodstone Fen
- Verdant Brink
- Auric Basin
- Tangled Depths
- Dragon’s Stand
- Southsun Cove (not in my Calculation)

I received 2 keys, perhaps it was even only 1 (miscalculated because of personal story).

Edit:
- Dredgehaunt Cliffs just now → no key as well

EphemeralWallaby.7643:

The wiki has drop-rate research for BLC keys by map completion: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Map_completion/Drop_Rate

It’s around a 25% chance of getting a key… and you don’t get them for the starter cities (or southsun cove, according to the wiki). Of those 16 maps, how many were starter cities?

Sometimes RNG just sucks.

~EW

Really? I could have sworn I got a few in starter cities. Did something change? Am I misremembering in my old age?

I’m going to have to pay more attention as I level my younger characters.

Same thing happened to me. I got 2 out of my world completion across all those maps. But hey got lots of transmutation charges (which i prefer anyways, I think the BL stuff is kinda lame). Yay

Endless Soul.5178:

Really? I could have sworn I got a few in starter cities. Did something change? Am I misremembering in my old age?

I’m going to have to pay more attention as I level my younger characters.

It’s possible that in the early days of GW2 the Black Citadel / Hoelbrak / Rata Sum / Divinity’s Reach / Grove could reward keys… but I don’t remember that far back (dang my old-age to heck). Even if so, it’s been a long time since that was the case.

~EW

EphemeralWallaby.7643:

Endless Soul.5178:

Really? I could have sworn I got a few in starter cities. Did something change? Am I misremembering in my old age?

I’m going to have to pay more attention as I level my younger characters.

It’s possible that in the early days of GW2 the Black Citadel / Hoelbrak / Rata Sum / Divinity’s Reach / Grove could reward keys… but I don’t remember that far back (dang my old-age to heck). Even if so, it’s been a long time since that was the case.

~EW

When the game started, cities gave you one copper. After some complaining it was changed to a trans stone. It then changed to a trans charge after wardrobe.

Maria Murtor.7253:

I explored 16 maps since the last weeks and have noticed a significant low “Drop rate” of Black Lion Keys for Map completion. If I am not wrong, I count only 2 keys for 16 maps. I did World completion with all characters I have, but never received so little reward. Was there any change to the drop rate?

Yea massive drop. I’ve done similar amount of maps and only got 2 keys as well and that includes 2 of the HoT maps all the end zones in core game and starter zones. I use to get them %50 of the time, but now they’re non-existent.

Tman.6349:

EphemeralWallaby.7643:

Endless Soul.5178:

Really? I could have sworn I got a few in starter cities. Did something change? Am I misremembering in my old age?

I’m going to have to pay more attention as I level my younger characters.

It’s possible that in the early days of GW2 the Black Citadel / Hoelbrak / Rata Sum / Divinity’s Reach / Grove could reward keys… but I don’t remember that far back (dang my old-age to heck). Even if so, it’s been a long time since that was the case.

~EW

When the game started, cities gave you one copper. After some complaining it was changed to a trans stone. It then changed to a trans charge after wardrobe.

Back in my day, 1 copper was actually worth something!

(thanks for the clarification )

~EW

Maria Murtor.7253:

There are no starter citys in my calculation (after 24 Characters with map completion, that fact is well known to me). Explored:

- Bloodtide Coast
- Lornar’s Pass
- Timberline Falls
- Gendarran Fields
- Harathi Hinterlands
- Queensdale
- Kessex Hills
- Brisban Wildlands
- Metrica Province
- The Silverwastes
- Dry Top
- Bloodstone Fen
- Verdant Brink
- Auric Basin
- Tangled Depths
- Dragon’s Stand
- Southsun Cove (not in my Calculation)

I received 2 keys, perhaps it was even only 1 (miscalculated because of personal story).

The probability of getting at least 3 keys over the course of those 17 maps is about 83%. You were just unlucky.

Dredgehaunt Cliifs now too. Just my luck … But it has never been so bad.

The trouble is what you think you remember after doing all 16 maps is not necessarily accurate and therefore not useful for drop-rate research.

You may be remembering it incorrectly, or you may have gotten a run of bad, but not unusual, luck which stands out more than the times you got average (or above average) numbers of keys.

This is why the wiki page says “Make your decision to update this table before completing the map. If you update it because you got a specific item the percentages will not be accurate.”

If you want to prove that the drop rate has gone down the best thing to do is to record the rewards you get from each map as you get them.

EphemeralWallaby.7643:

The wiki has drop-rate research for BLC keys by map completion: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Map_completion/Drop_Rate

It’s around a 25% chance of getting a key… and you don’t get them for the starter cities (or southsun cove, according to the wiki). Of those 16 maps, how many were starter cities?

Sometimes RNG just sucks.

If there’s a 25% chance of a key per map and you complete 16 maps, you’ve got a 19.7% chance of getting no more than two keys. http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

So, this is a perfectly likely event; humans are just bad at statistics shouldn’t trust their gut feelings on what is likely or not. In particular, we expect much less variance than most random systems actually provide. That is, you will get results far away from the average much more often than you expect.

Mapache.4852:

So, this is a perfectly likely event; humans are just bad at statistics shouldn’t trust their gut feelings on what is likely or not. In particular, we expect much less variance than most random systems actually provide. That is, you will get results far away from the average much more often than you expect.

Indeed.

We humans will see “25% chance” and think that means that “4 out of 16” is “normal” and anything lower is not (although we’re none too impressed with 5 or 6 out of 16 — we think that’s just slightly better than normal).

Yep, very luck based.

~6 weeks ago I complained on forums how I had 1 key in 12 maps

And from my current notes from a new fresh start I have 9 keys in 20 maps.

Overall I’m at 10 keys in 32 maps which gets closer to the wiki research.

So unless someone is ready to pour a lot of time into farming towards 100 maps at least, RNG can screw you over pretty hard. (Even then u could go 5 keys in 100 maps and someone else 40 keys, that’s RNG for you).

I have a feeling Bloodstone Fen also does not drop keys. After all it is just as easy to complete as Southsun is and takes very little time/effort.

I have done this map on 6 chars now and no key. 3 More chars to go out of my 9 so I am still hoping I will get 1 there.

Bloodstone Fen does indeed give keys, I’ve gotten one on the three characters i’ve done it on so far.

in my 4 years of playing i have only got 2 keys drop…….

I must have gotten all your map completion bl key luck.

sorudo.9054:

in my 4 years of playing i have only got 2 keys drop…….

How many zones did you complete?

I recently completed my 10th world completion and decided to save the keys I got for completing maps to see how many one world completion would give me. I also completed Southsun Cove, Dry Top and the Silverwastes during this run, even though they are not part of 100% world completion (they’re fast and easy to complete anyway). I got 4 keys out of 28 maps. I haven’t kept track of how many keys I got for my previous world completions, but I do have to admit this feels like a rather low result. Still, it’s RNG so it could just have been a less lucky run. Not that I mind, though. I needed the transmutation charges more than I need the keys.

Edit: 27 maps. I just checked and Southsun Cove does not give a key on completion. Starter areas do, according to the wiki.

TheNecrosanct.4028:

I got 4 keys out of 28 maps.

Edit: 27 maps.

• The chances of getting 4 or fewer keys from 27 maps (assuming a 25% drop rate/map) is just under 16%, according to the binomial distribution formula
• By way of comparison, the chance of getting exactly 7 keys (25%, the presumed drop rate) from 28 maps would be 17%

In other words, not only was your luck bad, but it’s not even bad enough to be remarkable.

TheNecrosanct.4028:

Starter areas do, according to the wiki.

In case you’re making a distinction from what I said much earlier…. yes, the starter areas can… but the starter cities (Hoelbrak, Grove, etc) don’t; which is what I stated.

~EW

Paulytnz.7619:

I have a feeling Bloodstone Fen also does not drop keys. After all it is just as easy to complete as Southsun is and takes very little time/effort.

I have done this map on 6 chars now and no key. 3 More chars to go out of my 9 so I am still hoping I will get 1 there.

The map rewards in Southsun were nerfed because after it was put in people were making characters to run that map, delete and repeat. The only chars that can get in Bloodstone to get map completion rewards are level 80s, unlike Southsun which could be reached by level 2. So even though it’s as easy as Southsun it’s not as farmable.

16 maps is a way too small sample. Combine this with the fact that people probably don’t come here to complain about getting more than 4 keys from 16 maps and you see how fruitless it is to discuss drop rates on the forum.

xlion.3065:

16 maps is a way too small sample. Combine this with the fact that people probably don’t come here to complain about getting more than 4 keys from 16 maps and you see how fruitless it is to discuss drop rates on the forum.

Then don’t discuss it….

Lite Ning Strike.5203:

xlion.3065:

16 maps is a way too small sample. Combine this with the fact that people probably don’t come here to complain about getting more than 4 keys from 16 maps and you see how fruitless it is to discuss drop rates on the forum.

Then don’t discuss it….

Lite Ning Strike.5203:

xlion.3065:

16 maps is a way too small sample. Combine this with the fact that people probably don’t come here to complain about getting more than 4 keys from 16 maps and you see how fruitless it is to discuss drop rates on the forum.

Then don’t discuss it….

I didn’t. I discussed the discussion. A meta discussion, so to say. haha.

I did some personal research on this topic, since I’m an altaholic and maintain an Excel spreadsheet of map/story completion. I discovered that on at least 5 different characters I got exactly one Black Lion Key for map completion per zone (Kryta, Ascalon, Orr, etc). The actual map awarding the key varied from character to character, but one key per zone seems to be all I get.

I’ll continue documenting as I continue working on map completion, because science!

I can confirm that you definitely can get keys from completing Bloodstone Fen.

UnfairOphelia.9763:

I did some personal research on this topic, since I’m an altaholic and maintain an Excel spreadsheet of map/story completion. I discovered that on at least 5 different characters I got exactly one Black Lion Key for map completion per zone (Kryta, Ascalon, Orr, etc). The actual map awarding the key varied from character to character, but one key per zone seems to be all I get.

I’ll continue documenting as I continue working on map completion, because science!

I’ve gotten more than one per zone. And while I think 5 characters going through 27 maps is too small a sample size, it’s still a very interesting coincidence.

Since there are five zones, Ophelia has gotten 5 keys/toon 5x, a drop rate of a about 18%, which is low compared to the wiki’s numbers — there’s approximately a 4.7% chance of getting 25 or fewer keys from 135 zones.
(For what it’s worth, there’s about a 15-16% chance of getting 33 or 34 keys from 135 zones, i.e. the average.)

Danikat.8537:

I can confirm that you definitely can get keys from completing Bloodstone Fen.

So can I as of today. I knew it did as my guildie who’s only completed the zone once got one, but that’s hearsay. On a whim today I tossed another alt up there to zip through completion. And behold! (Nothing major — one scrap, one Set II mini, and of course a booster).

I explored 2 more maps and got 1 Key on each map. It seems my streak of bad luck is finally over. So, as I said: It was just bad luck the other times.