Guild Wars 2

The way mystic clovers are gained is unfair. Since the rng never works in my favor, I’ve spent over a stack of ectos, coins, and shards, all for only 40 clovers. At this rate it will cost me 2 stacks to get the 77 needed and we all know my luck is just gonna slow it down to around 3 stacks. Why should I need to pay up 2-3 stacks of these materials for the same thing that someone else could pay 150 or so for. It’s not rewarding the skillful player… only the lucky ones. There should be another way to acquire these so that players with unlucky accounts have a way to know EXACTLY what they need to get them. I know there are pvp tracks (2 each is hardly rewarding) and the monthly login chest (8/month is quite the time gate -_-) but these are not enough.

The introduction of precursor crafting was a huge step in getting rid of this unfair luck favored path in getting a legendary… mine as well finish the job and provide another (not luck based) way of getting these clovers so the unlucky accounts don’t waste 100s of gold in the mystic toilet.

~Thanks

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Made 10 leggies but I never had a prob. I normally swap between recipe of 10 and 1 it works for me.

yeah.. there is no problem with the Mystic Clover rate… made 16 legendaries here, on average 1 stack each of ectos, coins and obbys hards for 77 clover. more or less 1/3.

do it one at a time, so that it follows closely the 1-in-3 average rule.

I ususally was very lucky with my clovers, making sometimes 80 with about 12-15 tries. Then, for my latest Legendary Astralaria – I ‘wasted’ 280 (28 10-recipe rolls) of all the needed items only to get 50 mystic clovers. It was frustrating. RNG can be a kitten.

There are several PvP reward tracks that give you clovers upon completion (can’t check which ones, because I’m at work right now). Now, let me tell you that mystic clovers are the first thing you have to craft in the legendary weapon process (if you didn’t do it that way, you did it wrong). Why? Because the T6 materials you’re getting (that are worth a lot btw) will help you in the crafting of the gift of might and the gift of magic that are also needed for the gift of fortune.

Now, if you’re crafting a new legendary weapon (Astralaria, etc. ) you can always sell the T6 materials you’re getting from the forge to buy more Ectos (because obsi is worth Karma and mystic coins and philosopher’s stones/crystals drop everywhere and are cheap).

I once tried to make T6 Mats with the 10 piece recipe. Was unlucky enough to only get clovers even though I didn’t need them.

BunjiKugashira.9754:

I once tried to make T6 Mats with the 10 piece recipe. Was unlucky enough to only get clovers even though I didn’t need them.

Yep..when i need clovers i get mats. When i once tried for mats, i got clovers.

There is a morale to this story somewhere…

NumenorLord.6539:

There are several PvP reward tracks that give you clovers upon completion (can’t check which ones, because I’m at work right now). Now, let me tell you that mystic clovers are the first thing you have to craft in the legendary weapon process (if you didn’t do it that way, you did it wrong). Why? Because the T6 materials you’re getting (that are worth a lot btw) will help you in the crafting of the gift of might and the gift of magic that are also needed for the gift of fortune.

Now, if you’re crafting a new legendary weapon (Astralaria, etc. ) you can always sell the T6 materials you’re getting from the forge to buy more Ectos (because obsi is worth Karma and mystic coins and philosopher’s stones/crystals drop everywhere and are cheap).

Every single reward track besides the dungeon ones gives clovers, from 2 to like 8

Uncle Dalty.8327:

The way mystic clovers are gained is unfair. Since the rng never works in my favor, I’ve spent over a stack of ectos, coins, and shards, all for only 40 clovers. At this rate it will cost me 2 stacks to get the 77 needed and we all know my luck is just gonna slow it down to around 3 stacks. Why should I need to pay up 2-3 stacks of these materials for the same thing that someone else could pay 150 or so for. It’s not rewarding the skillful player… only the lucky ones. There should be another way to acquire these so that players with unlucky accounts have a way to know EXACTLY what they need to get them. I know there are pvp tracks (2 each is hardly rewarding) and the monthly login chest (8/month is quite the time gate -_-) but these are not enough.

The introduction of precursor crafting was a huge step in getting rid of this unfair luck favored path in getting a legendary… mine as well finish the job and provide another (not luck based) way of getting these clovers so the unlucky accounts don’t waste 100s of gold in the mystic toilet.

~Thanks

Were you using the 1-clover or 10-clover recipe? They both have the same odds (~1:3), but if you get an unlucky streak, it will feel worse using the 10-clover recipe. There’s a ~9% chance of getting only 4 successes in 25 tries, which would mean 40 clovers for a cost of 250 ecto. In contrast, there’s virtually no chance of getting only 40 successes in 250 tries.

In other words, use the 1-clover recipe unless you are feeling lucky.

play spvp, I have more clovers than I know what to do with

How in the hell playing in the toilet has anything to do with making you a skillful player, lol?

Loosmaster.8263:

How in the hell playing in the toilet has anything to do with making you a skillful player, lol?

Remember when your math teacher said to pay attention you will use this later in life…

Welcome to later in life. Those who understand math use the “toilet” to make lots and lots of money.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Loosmaster.8263:

How in the hell playing in the toilet has anything to do with making you a skillful player, lol?

Remember when your math teacher said to pay attention you will use this later in life…

Welcome to later in life. Those who understand math use the “toilet” to make lots and lots of money.

The recipe for Mystic Clovers is fixed. No skill involved. They’re Account Bound so no money making there unless you’re selling the pre or legendary. Math has nothing to do with this unless I’m missing something.

You can also get guaranteed clovers simply by logging in. If you really hate RNG crafting clovers, and refuse to PvP, just stop crafting them, collect all the other mats, and know you’ll finish your legendary in X months.

For me it is loads of times the opposite of what I need….

• Need clovers > gets loads of T6 materials
• Want to get T6 material > gets clovers
• (frost toolbox , axe/mining pick /sickle) need sickles gets axes
• need axes > gets sickles

• No rng but: spamming join in with the thought “Oh i get in any moment”
• 10 mins later i start to complain “omg I can’t get in” > few clicks further joined in

Why is this world so tough xD
(complaining didn’t work yet for precursor drops, do they still drop? :P )

Loosmaster.8263:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Loosmaster.8263:

How in the hell playing in the toilet has anything to do with making you a skillful player, lol?

Remember when your math teacher said to pay attention you will use this later in life…

Welcome to later in life. Those who understand math use the “toilet” to make lots and lots of money.

The recipe for Mystic Clovers is fixed. No skill involved. They’re Account Bound so no money making there unless you’re selling the pre or legendary. Math has nothing to do with this unless I’m missing something.

Ofcourse math is part of this. An item got a specific drop rate, let’s say 1% or 1 in 100.
If you get more than 1 out of 100 you are lucky. If you get less than 1 out of 100 you are unlucky. But at some point like after 300 times and still haven’t got one the chance is lower you still dont get it , or call it “more unlucky” and the chance you will get it will increase. But this still doesn’t say a thing when the item will drop “it’s a chance” and because of RNG = RNG.

Some one already said the answer. Use the 1 obsidian recipe instead of 10

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Clover

But using the 1 recipe also means you have less chance to be lucky and hit it big.

Fowidner.6930:

But at some point like after 300 times and still haven’t got one the chance is lower you still dont get it , or call it “more unlucky” and the chance you will get it will increase.

No! The chance doesn’t change in any way, no matter how “unlucky” you have been. If you have a 1 in 100 chance and miss 1000 times (which is improbable) then the chance to get it is STILL 1:100.

What you get is a distribution whose AVERAGE is 1 in 300, to use @Fowidner’s odds. In 1000 trials you actually have a 2.06% chance to get 8 or more but a 3.55% chance of getting nothing. That’s the nature of probability of independent trials.

Anet already gives a way to get clovers without RNG involved, with daily login and PvP rewards system. This is already called a nerf and I don’t think it need more changes.
I don’t really see where the way to get them is unfair either.

If you try the mystic forge, just don’t use the 10 items recipe. You just get more chance with 1 by 1 because of probability.

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Nonsense, I’m an outlier account since day one.

To the OP, /wiki Mystic Clover and look at all of the ways to obtain them not just the forge.

Gremix.2514:

Fowidner.6930:

Ofcourse math is part of this. An item got a specific drop rate, let’s say 1% or 1 in 100.
If you get more than 1 out of 100 you are lucky. If you get less than 1 out of 100 you are unlucky. But at some point like after 300 times and still haven’t got one the chance is lower you still dont get it , or call it “more unlucky” and the chance you will get it will increase. But this still doesn’t say a thing when the item will drop “it’s a chance” and because of RNG = RNG.

Gambler’s Fallacy

That’s why I said the sentence after, because I knew people would react -_- “this still doesn’t say a thing when the item will drop”

To bring it back to the coin. To throw 1 time head (no drop) is easier than throwing 100 times head (no drop) without throwing tail (drop). But each time you throw you still have 50% chance… For a drop chance its the same: 1 out of 100 its more likely you have at least 1 after killing 300, or you are just unlucky. But I don’t say it has to drop very soon because each time you kill it’s 1% drop… It’s not predicting anything it only says if you are a lucky or unlucky at that moment.

Aidenwolf.5964:

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Nonsense, I’m an outlier account since day one.

To the OP, /wiki Mystic Clover and look at all of the ways to obtain them not just the forge.

Not Nonsense. Just maths. Each event is it’s own event unaffected by anything that has come before. Look it up.

There is NO such thing as luck. There IS such a thing as probability though. Luck you wish for, probability you manage.

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Your initial premise is wrong. Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

Blude.6812:

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Your initial premise is wrong. Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

My initial premise is spot on unless Anet have confirmed that some accounts have better odds than others, which they haven’t because they don’t.

Yes there will be accounts who were on the outer edges of probability, but there will not be many with the majority of accounts sitting near the average(because that is how probability works).

If an account that has historically come in well below the average(unlucky) and an account that has historically come in well above the average(lucky) both forge for clover they have the EXACT same odds of getting that clover.

It’s just maths.

Ps. Got a link for Anet confirming these ‘outlier’ accounts?

Blude.6812:

Your initial premise is wrong. Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

I guess I’m one of them then because I’m coming up on 10k hours without a precursor drop nervous laugh

Over the weekend, I created enough mystic clovers for 5 legendary weapons. I used the smaller output recipe as you get more consistent results. I only needed to use maybe 20 more of each component beyond the five stacks but that is RNG. I’ve gotten the 77 clovers in as few as 220 forges while the average is 231 forges.

I went for my Mystic Clovers before I really focused on my T6 mats or getting the gold for Icy Runestones.

That way when I got a bunch of random mats, I could either keep them (the mats I needed) or sell them for money toward the Icy Runestones (or other characters gear…).

I’m also in no huge rush to make my legendary. So giving up ectos wasn’t a huge problem for me. Because I’ll eventually get the amount I need.

Blude.6812:

Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

You’ve misunderstood what they “acknowledged.”

• There are no accounts that are inherently luck or unlucky.
• Given 7 million accounts, it wouldn’t be surprising that 7 accounts have the luck (good or bad) with a million to one odds.
• Those accounts would be considered “outliers” in the sense of being exceptionally lucky (good or bad), but that doesn’t mean there is anything special about the accounts — they have the same odds of getting a precursor from any drop today as anyone else.

Regardless, none of this matters in terms of the OP, who is talking about getting bad luck forging for clovers — the OP just suffered bad luck and (assuming the 10-clover recipe), it wasn’t even that unusual (just frustrating).

Blude.6812:

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Your initial premise is wrong. Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

No, ANet admits that there would be outlying accounts because probability says there will be outlying accounts.

Behellagh.1468:

Blude.6812:

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Your initial premise is wrong. Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

No, ANet admits that there would be outlying accounts because probability says there will be outlying accounts.

EXACTLY. There won’t be many, but they will be there. And as I’ve said, if they roll on a clover, they still have the same chance as everyone else.

Blude.6812:

FlashAhAhh.4307:

There is no such thing as an “Unlucky” account. Each roll of the dice is a completely separate event that is not dependent on anything that has happened before it.

That being said, I get your frustration. But the whole point of the MF is to remove gold from the economy which benefits everyone, and it does that bloody superbly (don’t talk to me about how many rares and exotics I’ve flushed chasing Dusk which I DO NOT EVEN WANT! lol)

I’ve never known a computer game that didn’t operate on RNG for loot.

Just stick with it, you never know, you might finish it off in the next stack!

P.S Luck is just what overly optimistic or pessimistic people call probability.

Your initial premise is wrong. Anet has acknowledged there are ‘outlier’ accounts on both the positive and negative side. They MAY be rare, but they do exist in this game. Anet just hasn’t figured out what to do with them.

There will likely be outlier accounts but no one account is more likely to fall under being labeled that. All accounts have an equal probability of being an outlier.