Guild Wars 2

A couple of questions about the MF:
1) Is it cheaper (cost against precursor drop rate) to put exotics or rares in the MF?
2) Overall do people make a gain or a loss by using the forge to try to get a greatsword precursor?
Im wondering because I’m not great at grinding dungeons; I get bored very quickly. World bosses are just as bad, especially when Tequatl drops nothing but greens.
Can I have honest opinions and facts. Thank You

Save your money and buy it off TP.

This one tip will save you not only hundreds if not potentially thousands of gold, but it will save you a lot of broken keyboards.

EDIT: to answer your questions. 1) Rares are cheaper. 2) LOSE. LOSE HEAVILY.

haha ok, thanks again Draknar

1.) I find it cheaper to put rares than exotics, especially if you do your own crafting.
2.) If there ever was an overall profit to be made from forging, the profit would be long gone or miniscule.

I always use this saying

“The successes of the few are paid for by the failures of the many”

As evident in my sig, you can see that my successes have been subsidized by the failures of many

Haha no problem. I’m a victim of the Mystic Toilet, thought I could help save you money.

There are some people in the game, however, who dump weapons into Mystic Forge that seem to get precursors regularly.

Many believe there is a phantom variable that affects RNG. I am one of these conspiracy theorists. It’s just hard for me to buy into true RNG when one account can get 20+ precursors from MF and another get none. You would expect in the long run it all to average since each individual MF submission is its own RNG.

The vast majority of players lose small fortunes in the MF.

Honestly if I were you I would try to save up 100g, buy a bunch of the cheapest level 80 Rare greatswords you can and throw them in the MF. If you get a precursor then you may very well be one of the chosen few. If you get nothing worth noting (you will get exotic greatswords, but they will end up only being worth 2-3g, which will not cover your costs) then don’t bother with MF anymore.

Then again, it could all really be random. There have been instances in other games where RNG was claimed to have been truly random only for it to be discovered later there was in fact a line of code that contradicted the system. It has been discussed in other conspiracy threads.

All I know is that if Anet were to one day say “oh dang our bad there was a variable that made certain accounts have better odds on X loot table lawlz” that nobody would be surprised. Anet makes mistakes, nobody can deny that.

Vol.7601:

1.) I find it cheaper to put rares than exotics, especially if you do your own crafting.
2.) If there ever was an overall profit to be made from forging, the profit would be long gone or miniscule.

I always use this saying

“The successes of the few are paid for by the failures of the many”

As evident in my sig, you can see that my successes have been subsidized by the failures of many

Here’s one of those RNG demons now lol. Ignore everything Vol has to say in regards to MF. He gets precursors constantly from MF, I swear. How many have you gotten to date?

Born To Strike.6073:

A coule of question about the MF:
1) Is it cheaper (cost against precursor drop rate) to put exotics or rares in the MF?
2) Overall do peole make a gain or a loss by using the forge to try to get a greatsword precursor?
Im wondering because I’m not great at grinding dungeons; I get bored very quickly. World bosses are just as bad, especially when Tequatl drops nothing but greens.
Can I have honest opinions and facts. Thank You

1) depends on many factors, the cost of the exotics, on average exotics is 1/100 combines if you pay 4 gold per exotic, and reuse whatever comes out, your lookin at 12 gold per round 100 combines would basically be about a 66% chance that you get it.

2)rares are about 1/1000 combines, or 3000ish rares for a 66% chance of success. however, if you sell exotics you get, you MAY recoup some costs.

at the end of the day its a gamble, so you just got to hope to win. regardless what path you choose.
If you are unlucky you will be screwed in either case.

Get a precursor from the Mystic Forge is a gamble, you may get luck and get it in a few tries, or spend thousands of gold trying to get a precursor that cost hundreds, but in the end the house always wins, no matter or what.

Belzebu.3912:

Get a precursor from the Mystic Forge is a gamble, you may get luck and get it in a few tries, or spend thousands of gold trying to get a precursor that cost hundreds, but in the end the house always wins, no matter or what.

in this case, i wouldnt say the house always wins, better to say the losers pay for winners. the value is determined by the winners and the buyers.

I was thinking more lore-wise referring to Zomorros but looking at the game economy, the vast majority of losers pays for the few winners.

Assuming this guy is correct, you have a 1 in 800 chance to get a precursor when combining 4 rare weapons in the forge. This means that you need 800 tries to get a precursor on average. The current sell price for Dusk is 1310g, so if it costs you less than 1g 63s 75b per try you can expect to save money.

But the problem is of course, that no one can guarantee, that you get a precursor after 800 tries. You may need way more tries and with such a low probability, the variance is high.

Vol.7601:

1.) I find it cheaper to put rares than exotics, especially if you do your own crafting.
2.) If there ever was an overall profit to be made from forging, the profit would be long gone or miniscule.

I always use this saying

“The successes of the few are paid for by the failures of the many”

As evident in my sig, you can see that my successes have been subsidized by the failures of many

I officially hate you… Lol. I have played since headstart and the most expensive drop I have ever gotten was worth 1g. I currently have 2g to my name. And I can count all the exotics I have gotten as drops in almost 2 years, P.S. It is under 20.

This proves to me that some accounts have INCREDIBLE LUCK compared to others.

Ignavia.7420:

Assuming this guy is correct, you have a 1 in 800 chance to get a precursor when combining 4 rare weapons in the forge. This means that you need 800 tries to get a precursor on average. The current sell price for Dusk is 1310g, so if it costs you less than 1g 63s 75b per try you can expect to save money.

But the problem is of course, that no one can guarantee, that you get a precursor after 800 tries. You may need way more tries and with such a low probability, the variance is high.

1/800 means that if you try 800 times, you have about a 66% chance of success. sooo yeah.

phys.7689:

1/800 means that if you try 800 times, you have about a 66% chance of success. sooo yeah.

To be exact, it a 63.24% chance of success. It’s not that much of a difference, but still noticeable. Some more numbers: To have a success rate of 50%, you need 555 tries, for a success rate of 66% it’s 863 tries, for 75% it’s 1109 tries, for 90% it’s 1841 tries and for 99% it’s 3682 tries. So even if you throw about 11046 rares in the mystic forge you could be the one unlucky person in 100 that still does not get a precursor.

Got Dusk today after 900 lvl80 rare greatsword tries in MF. I spent about 500g. Thank you RNG GOD.

Draknar.5748:

Haha no problem. I’m a victim of the Mystic Toilet, thought I could help save you money.

There are some people in the game, however, who dump weapons into Mystic Forge that seem to get precursors regularly.

Many believe there is a phantom variable that affects RNG. I am one of these conspiracy theorists. It’s just hard for me to buy into true RNG when one account can get 20+ precursors from MF and another get none. You would expect in the long run it all to average since each individual MF submission is its own RNG.

The vast majority of players lose small fortunes in the MF.

Honestly if I were you I would try to save up 100g, buy a bunch of the cheapest level 80 Rare greatswords you can and throw them in the MF. If you get a precursor then you may very well be one of the chosen few. If you get nothing worth noting (you will get exotic greatswords, but they will end up only being worth 2-3g, which will not cover your costs) then don’t bother with MF anymore.

Then again, it could all really be random. There have been instances in other games where RNG was claimed to have been truly random only for it to be discovered later there was in fact a line of code that contradicted the system. It has been discussed in other conspiracy threads.

All I know is that if Anet were to one day say “oh dang our bad there was a variable that made certain accounts have better odds on X loot table lawlz” that nobody would be surprised. Anet makes mistakes, nobody can deny that.

Guess what, its not anet openly admit it https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Official-Response-Drop-Rate-of-Legendary-Precursors/first

LinseyMurdock.4165:

We’ve seen players discussing the topic of crafting legendary precursor weapons and claiming that we’ve made changes to make this more difficult. We’d like to be clear that we did not make any across the board changes to reduce the drop rate, nor was it our intention to significantly increase the difficulty in acquiring these precursor weapons.

We did fix a few bugged recipes that were rewarding Legendary precursors more often than they should have been. These recipes were mostly using Rares in the level 70-75 range and mostly affected the precursors for the greatswords and the dagger. This has had some effect on the drop rate when using lower level rares to attempt to get a precursor but it was never intended for that to be the best way of acquiring these weapons. The recipes for throwing in level 80 exotics have not changed at all.

We have been watching the prices climbing on Legendary precursors and share your concerns about some of them becoming too expensive. We will continue to monitor the situation and will make any adjustments we feel are necessary.