Guild Wars 2

I know this is not a new topic…and I will forwarn you this post is little more than a rant.

Having said that, yesterday I ran just shy of 100 shards, ectos, and coins, along with a similar mountain of crystals and philosopher’s stones, through the Mystic Forge. For my trouble, time, and gold, I got one clover…

Now, it was my understanding that clovers were supposed to be roughly a one-in-three return, whereas I got one-in-a-hundred. Rolling the dice nearly 100 times should be a large enough sample that something close to the true statistical odds should be emerging here…so something was amiss.

At those odds, I would need something like 1,500,000 karma and thousands? of skill points just to grind out the clovers needed for a legendary…nevermind all the other requirements. Utterly ridiculous.

The problem with RNG is that it can be so easily manipulated by the devs, because we have no idea what is really going on. I might have been completely wasting all my time gathering the materials to get clovers. Say Anet decides there are too many legendaries in the game….they simply manipulate the RNG for clovers…then BANG…no one is getting a legendary. This obviously would not be posted in the update bulletins, just like the constant manipulations of the Orr farming locations are not posted.

I can tell you I am not wasting my time with the Mystic Forge any longer…it would be idiotic to do so. I just wish I knew that before I blew the time and resources already.

Of course this doesn’t even begin to touch upon the issue of getting the precursor…at this point I would not even attempt it.

I find the situation infuriating, personally. Not the way to build a loyal game-base, Anet.

Thanks for indulging my rant.

I figured out not to waste my time with the MF within like 2 weeks of discovering it. The only thing it’s good for is the ‘for sure’ recipes like Mystic salvage kits.

If that is indeed true (1 clover in 100 attempts), well that is unlucky in the extreme.

Having said that, I agree, the RNG levels in this game are OTT, ripe for manipulation and generally a bad way to go about things.

Hmm, I personally do the Clover x10 recipe and have gotten 50 clovers in roughly 15 attempts. If you are legitimately claiming you only got 1 clover in 100 attempts then you, sir, are at the extreme of the RNG and that really sucks. Might be worth doing the x10 recipe in the future instead of doing one at a time. Just put 10x of the mats in the forge.

I have a hard time believing you got only one clover. If you failed Mystic Forge that many times, you must have gotten t6 mats to cover expenses.

I get too many clovers. My return rate is about 50%. Of course I’m doing it to get mats, not clovers, so the whole thing makes perfect sense. Every time I get clovers I get annoyed.

it is good to get rid of greens to occasionally get rares. To get a precursor it is meaningless.

I don’t like the way a legendary is created at all, gambling is just a bad way to do this since people would spend different amounts of ressources to get one. One player might be extremely lucky while others like the OP are left behind.

Why isn’t there a way to get this via tasks which can be found in a checklist which don’t depend on RNG? For tasks which are really challenging to accomplish instead of pure luck.

In general, you will be much happier with the game when you come to the realization that the random elements in the game will never give you anything you want.

Kain Francois.4328:

I have a hard time believing you got only one clover. If you failed Mystic Forge that many times, you must have gotten t6 mats to cover expenses.

Nope happens all the time. It’s not an RNG system when the same thing happens to the same people all the time.

Some people get nothing, some people get everything, and their right it’s not a good way of doing things at all.

When normal mats are needed for the game to function and for players to reach their goals it’s never a good process to cut 1 set of people off and give another set of people everything 98% of the time.

Other then throwing some low level gems in there for a daily completion, I refuse to use it.

This is the reason many of us call it the mystic toilet

I’m not sure why a few of you are doubting my story… What reason would I have to make it up?

It was not quite 1 in 100….I ran 90-something shards…not sure the exact number. But the odds were horrendous for sure.

And yes, I made a ton of gold out of the experience…by selling a lot of high level crafting stuff that kicked out of the MF. The problem is that gold will not buy shards and it won’t buy crystals/stones.

What I learned…since getting a legendary (precursor and clovers) is heavily dependent on the MF RNG….that is a venture I am DONE with…for sure.

I guess I wised up late but at least I wised up.

It’s literally a slot machine.

I don’t drive by the Casino every day just to yell at the establishment. Instead, I just don’t go to the Casino.

There’s nothing wrong with having the forge, but i would like to see it as a secondary thing. It’s such a primary crafting tool, it’s a bit silly.

munkiman.3068:

There’s nothing wrong with having the forge, but i would like to see it as a secondary thing. It’s such a primary crafting tool, it’s a bit silly.

Thats kind of my main point… The MF is too central a part of the game to be this “broken”.

I have done pretty much everything PVE and WVW that there is to do in the game. Chasing legendaries was about the only thing left. I guess you can buy a precursor (for an insane amount of gold) but legendaries need clovers, and there is no way to get clovers other than to play the MF.

I am also arguing that the RNG odds have to be deliberately manipulated on some basis. I “rolled the dice” too many times with too few resulting clovers for it to simply be “bad luck”.

The Stain.4169:

munkiman.3068:

There’s nothing wrong with having the forge, but i would like to see it as a secondary thing. It’s such a primary crafting tool, it’s a bit silly.

Thats kind of my main point… The MF is too central a part of the game to be this “broken”.

I have done pretty much everything PVE and WVW that there is to do in the game. Chasing legendaries was about the only thing left. I guess you can buy a precursor (for an insane amount of gold) but legendaries need clovers, and there is no way to get clovers other than to play the MF.

I am also arguing that the RNG odds have to be deliberately manipulated on some basis. I “rolled the dice” too many times with too few resulting clovers for it to simply be “bad luck”.

Yes, unfortunately there are quite a few people i know with that kind of bad luck. It’s all a bit disheartening.

This mystic forge IMO is a joke, I have personally burned close to 200 rare or exo level 75+ hammers trying to get my precursor and have 99.9% given up trying. I am up to 40 clovers and my cost well exceeds anything that could be classed as fun doing so. I dont see what part of Legendary is luck? Isnt legendary something that should come from legendary acheivements? I hate the fact people can sell Legendary weapons on the trader because something that in the game sense should be priceless shouldnt be sold. As it currently stands the only people I could think would sell something that takes so much time and effort would be RMT (real money traders) because why would you grind out something like that which is the top tier in the game and most desirable skins to obtain just to sell it to have more gold in the bank? I mean really? doesnt that make sense? I would love to see Legendarys account bound but NOT bind on equip so once you have one you can always swap it to alts if you choose. Legendarys as they are currently just seem to me as a good money maker for RMT’rs and that needs to change. Also the RNG is in deffinate need of a revamp and lastly PRECURSOR SCAVENGER HUNT!!!!! cant stress that enough!

I would dearly love to know how ANETs random number generator works. If they use a seed number, and that is what is the most common, is that seed number fixed or does it vary? If it is fixed, is it fixed to a character or to an account? If it is varied how often does it change? By date/time or some other parameter?

A fixed seed number will return a repeating sequence of results and is not truly random at all. If the sequence of results given to you as determined by the seed number gives you trash then that is all you could ever expect. That would explain some of the wide discrepancies where some people are extremely lucky while others are extremely unlucky.

Although there are many sites on the web that explain rng you could start here for a more in depth discussion of what I am talking about.

http://www.math.utah.edu/~pa/Random/Random.html

Theftwind.8976:

I would dearly love to know how ANETs random number generator works.

I don’t pretend to know how this sort of thing works, but I think the odds of probability of a certain outcome from the MF are constantly manipulated by Anet, in order to steer the game in the direction they want it to go. For example, it has been widely reported that Anet felt people were getting far too many legendaries, far faster, then they had intended when the game was developed. With that in mind, have you ever heard of anyone pulling a precursor from the MF in the past 6 months? I sure haven’t. AFAIK people who really want a legendary bite the bullet and buy the precursor from the TP (where THOSE come from I have no idea).

Along the same lines, my near 1-in-100 rate of pulling clovers from the MF would statistically be EXTREMELY unlikely (not impossible, admittedly) if indeed the MF spit out clovers at the 33% rate that is widely believed.

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I think Anet messes with the odds in the MF based on whatever direction they want the game to go. Even if I am wrong, the perception is the fatal flaw with the RNG system…it inherently breeds frustration and distrust by its very nature…because there is no accountability between effort/investment and results. Why would you deliberately introduce those factors into a game that people play for enjoyment?

Since this RNG debacle started I have been wondering if ANET will now have to rewrite the esrb for GW2 to include the warning about gambling within the game for those with gambling addictions.

One clover in 100 attempts just isn’t possible. You mean you went 0 for 10 on the 10 clover recipes? That sucks but isn’t terribly unusual. You should have got a bunch of T6 mats back from missing a lot.

Also, when you willingly roll the dice and lose, take responsibility for losing. This isn’t a fused ticket. It’s mystic clovers. Anet has always left it the same. Many people have legendaries (myself included) and have taken data to know that, basically, 0 for 100 rolls is less likely than mystic forging a precursor.

item/gold sinks working at it’s finest.

Nothing wrong with that.

RNG at it’s finest~

“We wanna make a game that’s all about skill” (paraphrasing), let’s reward them based on luck though ^^b

The Stain.4169:

I’m not sure why a few of you are doubting my story… What reason would I have to make it up?

It was not quite 1 in 100….I ran 90-something shards…not sure the exact number. But the odds were horrendous for sure.

And yes, I made a ton of gold out of the experience…by selling a lot of high level crafting stuff that kicked out of the MF. The problem is that gold will not buy shards and it won’t buy crystals/stones.

What I learned…since getting a legendary (precursor and clovers) is heavily dependent on the MF RNG….that is a venture I am DONE with…for sure.

I guess I wised up late but at least I wised up.

Do you know how many people would LOVE to trade skill points and karma for gold? This isn’t a flaw in the game…and for my money the ten recipes work a lot better then the individual ones.

Im Mudbone.1437:

Since this RNG debacle started I have been wondering if ANET will now have to rewrite the esrb for GW2 to include the warning about gambling within the game for those with gambling addictions.

In Australia it has it written on the box, says Gambling, its classed as M too which is strange because its not age related more of a guideline, funnily in Aus Gambling is illegal to anyone under 18 years of age but on the internet it seems ok..

Chopps.5047:

One clover in 100 attempts just isn’t possible. You mean you went 0 for 10 on the 10 clover recipes? That sucks but isn’t terribly unusual. You should have got a bunch of T6 mats back from missing a lot.

Also, when you willingly roll the dice and lose, take responsibility for losing. This isn’t a fused ticket. It’s mystic clovers. Anet has always left it the same. Many people have legendaries (myself included) and have taken data to know that, basically, 0 for 100 rolls is less likely than mystic forging a precursor.

How the heck is this even a valid answer?

We argue that RNG is bad, and I always get the smart kitten remark of “random is random!” but you can say 1 in 100 clover attempts isn’t possible. Welp… it is! Random is random!

Gah. The people that have their things sure are unwilling to recognize glaring problems that affect other people.

The Stain.4169:

I know this is not a new topic…and I will forwarn you this post is little more than a rant.

Having said that, yesterday I ran just shy of 100 shards, ectos, and coins, along with a similar mountain of crystals and philosopher’s stones, through the Mystic Forge. For my trouble, time, and gold, I got one clover…

Now, it was my understanding that clovers were supposed to be roughly a one-in-three return, whereas I got one-in-a-hundred. Rolling the dice nearly 100 times should be a large enough sample that something close to the true statistical odds should be emerging here…so something was amiss.

At those odds, I would need something like 1,500,000 karma and thousands? of skill points just to grind out the clovers needed for a legendary…nevermind all the other requirements. Utterly ridiculous.

The problem with RNG is that it can be so easily manipulated by the devs, because we have no idea what is really going on. I might have been completely wasting all my time gathering the materials to get clovers. Say Anet decides there are too many legendaries in the game….they simply manipulate the RNG for clovers…then BANG…no one is getting a legendary. This obviously would not be posted in the update bulletins, just like the constant manipulations of the Orr farming locations are not posted.

I can tell you I am not wasting my time with the Mystic Forge any longer…it would be idiotic to do so. I just wish I knew that before I blew the time and resources already.

Of course this doesn’t even begin to touch upon the issue of getting the precursor…at this point I would not even attempt it.

I find the situation infuriating, personally. Not the way to build a loyal game-base, Anet.

Thanks for indulging my rant.

Yea dude..I feel you. I hate it. It’s not engaging… all I feel when rolling the dice is ‘I can’t wait for this b.s. to be over with’. But hey, that’s what they made. farm, farm, farm.

I agree with the notion that i is easier to grind out the gold to buy a legendary (and a lot less frustrating). RNG is RNG so obviously other people find it easier but for me it’s just a mundane task..nothing fun about it.

I dislike the RNG.

I got all my clovers using the 10 amount per use. I got back better than what the odds say on the wiki. I had a 50% return rate.

I may never get a precursor in the mystic toilet and I’m pretty sure someone has already gotten several from there.

Dante.1508:

Im Mudbone.1437:

Since this RNG debacle started I have been wondering if ANET will now have to rewrite the esrb for GW2 to include the warning about gambling within the game for those with gambling addictions.

In Australia it has it written on the box, says Gambling, its classed as M too which is strange because its not age related more of a guideline, funnily in Aus Gambling is illegal to anyone under 18 years of age but on the internet it seems ok..

The gambling they’re talking about though isn’t like the RNG of the chests. The gambling they’re likely talking about is placing bets on the cowtapult, which is more like a simulation of actual gambling.

It’s legal because you can only win in game currency at it, not real money.

While possible, I call bluff. One in 100 on a 1/3 chance is so improbable, it’s hard to believe. If you’d say 10 in 100 I would have been inclined. Probably OP is exaggerating to make the argument better, while actually it makes it worse.

I’m very slowly going for my 77 by doing 5 when it’s the MF daily. Currently I’m at 32% for 27 clovers. That’s small, sure, but at 70 tries, the pattern sure starts emerging.

The Stain.4169:

I know this is not a new topic…and I will forwarn you this post is little more than a rant.

Having said that, yesterday I ran just shy of 100 shards, ectos, and coins, along with a similar mountain of crystals and philosopher’s stones, through the Mystic Forge. For my trouble, time, and gold, I got one clover…

Now, it was my understanding that clovers were supposed to be roughly a one-in-three return, whereas I got one-in-a-hundred. Rolling the dice nearly 100 times should be a large enough sample that something close to the true statistical odds should be emerging here…so something was amiss.

At those odds, I would need something like 1,500,000 karma and thousands? of skill points just to grind out the clovers needed for a legendary…nevermind all the other requirements. Utterly ridiculous.

The problem with RNG is that it can be so easily manipulated by the devs, because we have no idea what is really going on. I might have been completely wasting all my time gathering the materials to get clovers. Say Anet decides there are too many legendaries in the game….they simply manipulate the RNG for clovers…then BANG…no one is getting a legendary. This obviously would not be posted in the update bulletins, just like the constant manipulations of the Orr farming locations are not posted.

I can tell you I am not wasting my time with the Mystic Forge any longer…it would be idiotic to do so. I just wish I knew that before I blew the time and resources already.

Of course this doesn’t even begin to touch upon the issue of getting the precursor…at this point I would not even attempt it.

I find the situation infuriating, personally. Not the way to build a loyal game-base, Anet.

Thanks for indulging my rant.

You’ve become a better player. Good for you !

It took me a week to realize I was in over my head when I started working towards a legendary.

The Stain.4169:

I know this is not a new topic…and I will forwarn you this post is little more than a rant.

Having said that, yesterday I ran just shy of 100 shards, ectos, and coins, along with a similar mountain of crystals and philosopher’s stones, through the Mystic Forge. For my trouble, time, and gold, I got one clover…

Now, it was my understanding that clovers were supposed to be roughly a one-in-three return, whereas I got one-in-a-hundred. Rolling the dice nearly 100 times should be a large enough sample that something close to the true statistical odds should be emerging here…so something was amiss.

At those odds, I would need something like 1,500,000 karma and thousands? of skill points just to grind out the clovers needed for a legendary…nevermind all the other requirements. Utterly ridiculous.

The problem with RNG is that it can be so easily manipulated by the devs, because we have no idea what is really going on. I might have been completely wasting all my time gathering the materials to get clovers. Say Anet decides there are too many legendaries in the game….they simply manipulate the RNG for clovers…then BANG…no one is getting a legendary. This obviously would not be posted in the update bulletins, just like the constant manipulations of the Orr farming locations are not posted.

I can tell you I am not wasting my time with the Mystic Forge any longer…it would be idiotic to do so. I just wish I knew that before I blew the time and resources already.

Of course this doesn’t even begin to touch upon the issue of getting the precursor…at this point I would not even attempt it.

I find the situation infuriating, personally. Not the way to build a loyal game-base, Anet.

Thanks for indulging my rant.

food for thout.

Martrim.1078:

The Stain.4169:

I know this is not a new topic…and I will forwarn you this post is little more than a rant.

Having said that, yesterday I ran just shy of 100 shards, ectos, and coins, along with a similar mountain of crystals and philosopher’s stones, through the Mystic Forge. For my trouble, time, and gold, I got one clover…

Now, it was my understanding that clovers were supposed to be roughly a one-in-three return, whereas I got one-in-a-hundred. Rolling the dice nearly 100 times should be a large enough sample that something close to the true statistical odds should be emerging here…so something was amiss.

At those odds, I would need something like 1,500,000 karma and thousands? of skill points just to grind out the clovers needed for a legendary…nevermind all the other requirements. Utterly ridiculous.

The problem with RNG is that it can be so easily manipulated by the devs, because we have no idea what is really going on. I might have been completely wasting all my time gathering the materials to get clovers. Say Anet decides there are too many legendaries in the game….they simply manipulate the RNG for clovers…then BANG…no one is getting a legendary. This obviously would not be posted in the update bulletins, just like the constant manipulations of the Orr farming locations are not posted.

I can tell you I am not wasting my time with the Mystic Forge any longer…it would be idiotic to do so. I just wish I knew that before I blew the time and resources already.

Of course this doesn’t even begin to touch upon the issue of getting the precursor…at this point I would not even attempt it.

I find the situation infuriating, personally. Not the way to build a loyal game-base, Anet.

Thanks for indulging my rant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzpndHtdl9A

food for thout.

Got to love when their attempt to troll is undermined by said troll’s inability to spell.

I just crafted Sunrise and I was amazed at how many obsidian shards, ecto, and coins I went through to get 77 clovers. I started out with using karma to buy the shards but after spending about 400,000 karma and running out of shards I used my fractal relics and ended up spending all I had (4025) on shards to finally have enough to make the clovers. That is not including the rares salvaged to get ecto and the 6 toons at level 80 and way too many hours spent playing GW2.

It’s not just your bad luck. If you go by crafting guides for legendary weapons it seems like it used to take less in materials than some are reporting more recently.

It took way too much just to craft the sunrise. I will not be crafting another legendary for about a year, if I ever do that again?

I am just stoked that summer is finally on its way and winter is done… The game provides entertainment when it’s cold outside but is no match to having fun in the sun..

@OP: I hear you. I feel the same. I know its not nearly as much as some people, but I threw about 130 rare shortbows in there trying to get The lover. Nope. Got a lot of exotics though.

And about the clovers, I’ve had semi OK luck…34 I think right now.

But yeah, to obtain a legendary you need obscene amounts of money and good luck.

Why dont you think about the mystic forge recipes? Go wiki them, some are really nice and, in my opinion, rival some of the legendary skins. For probably half the price in mats and no precursor. And I dont think there are tons of people with them.

Im deciding between getting several awsome looking mystic forge skins, or one uber rare legendary skin.

With all everyone is going through to obtain the oh-so hard to obtain legendary, just think about the Thief who prefers/likes dagger/dagger must go through to get 2 Incinerators.

Im Mudbone.1437:

With all everyone is going through to obtain the oh-so hard to obtain legendary, just think about the Thief who prefers/likes dagger/dagger must go through to get 2 Incinerators.

My main is a thief

I switch between p/p, p/d, d/d builds. But I always run with a shortbow for travel, for AOE, and for range(when Im running d/d). I use it probably half of the time. So I decided to go after dreamer, although incinerator is nice.

The Stain.4169:

With that in mind, have you ever heard of anyone pulling a precursor from the MF in the past 6 months? I sure haven’t. AFAIK people who really want a legendary bite the bullet and buy the precursor from the TP (where THOSE come from I have no idea).

Now you have.

I pulled Spark off the Mystic Toilet a couple days ago.

I tried the toilet to see what was up… and after 10 tries no clovers and some wooden planks. No thank you, I’m just going to buy it off the TP in 2023.

My wife got all her clovers in two sessions at the forge. Her drop rate on clovers using the 10 recipe was better than 50%. RNG sucks sometimes.

My drop rate for clovers is at least 50% for the ten clover formula. It sorta sucks actually, think I’m going to the single clover formula since that works “worse”.

I’m fine with the RNG on the forge…as far as “Greens” into “Yellows”, goes. I forged 19 rares, just from the “Greens” that dropped, while farming the “Instigator” events in Southsun. I broke all of them down, using a “Black Lion Kit”, and got 36 ectos. Those sold for 7g 16s. The sigils, and runes added another 1g 2s. A little under 10g isn’t bad, for a couple hours of event farming.

Now as far as “Precursors”, and other “Legendary” related items go??…those have terrible RNG.

EDIT: After thinking about it, I feel that the “Clovers” aren’t THAT bad. At least you end up getting some T6 mats, or some lodestones if you fail

The clovers arent bad at all. About 30% chance to get them, with a fairly high chance to get something else towards your Legendary the other 70% of the time (ie T6 materials). Half the cost is just pure time played (karma and skill points).

Getting the precursor however… Not so much fun. I still havent gotten any exotic whatsoever from dragon events since the launch of the game (I get maybe 1 rare per 10 events, ignoring the new standard yellow)… And I’ve still gotten two precursors out of the forge in that time. RNG ftw.

You guys are sort of eluding to my point here…

I don’t think it is RNG…or at least that the RNG does not work the same all the time, for all players. The statistics seem to support what I am saying. Some players get virtually no clovers, and others are scoring over 50% (even if they don’t want clovers). As long as the statistical sample is large enough (debateable I suppose) that pretty strongly supports that something is going on besides RNG.

In my case, I was going for my second legendary, when the MF kicked my kitten Maybe the system knocks the percentages waaaayyyy down in that situation? I kept pretty close track the first time around and scored around 25% on the clovers…which was doable.

Now I am close to 1%…which is not doable at all. Since clovers are the only ingredient to legendaries that MUST come from the MF (you can buy precursors), it makes sense that Anet would manipulate the odds of them coming out of it,if for whatever reason they want to control the number of legendaries that can be obtained.

This is the first MMO game I have played. One of the things that has most surprised me about GW2 is Anet’s determination not just to fix glitches and provide new gameplay through updates, but also to try to manipulate and control the way people play the game. I refer to the constant nerfing of farming locations, attempts to force level 80 players out of Orr, and things of that sort.

I am of the opinion that the same sort of thing is going on with the MF. I think RNG from the MF is different with different players at different times….dependent on a wide range of factors I could not even theorize on.

In my case, maybe already having a legendary changes the odds of getting clovers…and makes it virtually impossible to accumulate enough for another?

Myst.5783:

The Stain.4169:

With that in mind, have you ever heard of anyone pulling a precursor from the MF in the past 6 months? I sure haven’t. AFAIK people who really want a legendary bite the bullet and buy the precursor from the TP (where THOSE come from I have no idea).

Now you have.

I pulled Spark off the Mystic Toilet a couple days ago.

A guildie got both Dusk from the Mystic Forge 2 weeks ago, so it’s still possible and doable.

rizzo.1079:

I figured out not to waste my time with the MF within like 2 weeks of discovering it. The only thing it’s good for is the ‘for sure’ recipes like Mystic salvage kits.

Pretty much this. Every time it’s on the list for the daily I usually give it 5 clover attempts. So far I’ve spent almost 2 stacks of shards to get almost 60 clovers, which sucks because that’s a ton of ecto and coins down the tube too.

Point is, it’s just random and that does suck. You just got unluckier than usual. Don’t give up though, just don’t make it a habit because that’s when you start getting livid with your hard earned items and money literally being thrown away in your face.

I just bought 16 rare axes the other night for my daily (I was at 4/5 and was lazy so I decided to forge a few things). I wanna say it was like 3-6g for all of them and I decided to do axes instead of shields, greatswords, 1h swords, rifles, whatever – for variety reasons (it seems I’m always dumping in greatswords for a payout do I decided to change it up a bit).

Dumped 4 in. Got a rare back. 4 more – rare. 4 more – rare. 4 more – rare. So out of the 16 I bought, I was left with 4 more rares. Dumped those in to finish off my daily and I got the Tooth of Frostfang.

I’ve gotten very unlucky with clovers too though. When I discovered the 10 at a time recipe, I tried it out 5 times. 50 attempts turned into 5 with not a single clover in return. I did, right after, 50 single attempts and got over 20 clovers. Just the way RNG works, I guess. It sucks.

Edit: for the people wondering about whether or not precursors are still being “awarded” through the mystic forge, read my post.

I was wondering if Anet might have adjusted the odds on the Mystic Forge after the Secret of Southsun Cove patch.

The reason for this query has to do with the large number of items being dropped on that map along with the increased Magic Find boost available.

I did my own test of sorts. Normally I toss my greens in the Mystic Forge to generate rares and did so the other day after having a whole inventory full of them. Normally I get a rare about 1 in 4, 1 in 5 attempts, sometimes worse but rarely at that. I tossed about 40 or more in there (I did no formal count but my bags are large enough to guess) and got one rare.

Since then I have been NPCing those greens because it is far more profitable to do that than lose on such a grand scale.

My next test was to get a daily requirement. I usually take some T1 stones and toss them into the Mystic forge to get this done quickly just for kicks and I try to get some better mats like Silver Doubloons and such. Normally I can get one or two in a few minutes and move on. I did not get even one that day.

These are little things but I note the difference in the success rate and make my adjustments.

If I was someone trying for a precursor I would wait for a few weeks and test with some lower level successes after this content has been re-worked before playing with the expensive items or the desperately required ones.

If it is “raining” drops with new content, that forge puts on a thief’s mask.

Not surprising

My first 5 10x10 combines all came out clovers. I was like what are people complaining about....then my next 13 10x10 came up blanks.

So while I don’t disagree with the idea that clover rng is bad design and unnecessary, I feel this math needs to be said. Based on statistics gathered by a very large number of attempts doing this recipe, the return rate was approximated to be very close to 33%. What does that mean in terms of not getting a clover? It says there is a 66% chance you will not get one.
Since you did 90 tries and only got one clover, you are suggesting that you got, at the very minimum, 44 failures in a row. Probably more. The probability of this happening is at most .66 to the 44th power. Better known as .000001%. So please, people, rng can suck but please don’t assert that this particular situation is common. Math has proven the likelyhood of this to be so far under 1% that if all 3 million players tried this exact thing, its unlikely that even 3 people would have this happen.

Edit: To the OP, if this really happened to you I could see why you think they manipulate the odds (for what it is worth, my clovers actually happened more often the second time needing them).
But I see lots of people saying this is normal or basing their assumptions on what is not out of the normal range. Like needing 40 greens for a rare as opposed to the normal 20. Based on the 20% odds to get a rare using greens, getting no rares in 10 attempts has a 10% chance. So getting one rare is clearly not unusual. The original situation, however, is almost impossibly uncommon.