Guild Wars 2

If your are thinking of throwing rares into the Mystic Forge in hopes of getting a precursor, now is a bad time. It’s set to spit out those krait weapons needed for that krait collection. Got 4 Krait weapons our of 5 tries. Save your resources till this is fixed.

Might be time to dial this down a little……

Tumult.2578:

If your are thinking of throwing rares into the Mystic Forge in hopes of getting a precursor, now is a bad time.

I wasn’t aware there was ever a good time for this.. =P

Well, if there is, it isn’t now.

RNG.

5 tries is not even close enough to a large enough sample to make any conclusions whatsoever.

You put in rares and got back another rare? That is hardly unusual.

A minimum of 5 tries a day over 2 months has generated an inordinate amount of krait weapons.
So yeah, 300 tries at least, generated this comment.
Didn’t say anything about receiving rares.

So basically continue to not throw things into the Mystic Toilet. Got it.

300 tries is still a way too small sample. There are probably thousands of tries every day.

Rare weapons have a much smaller skin pool than Exotics do, so it is entirely reasonably to see large periods of Krait skins in a row.

Sample size is not the point when you are looking at the vast majority of received items as being of one type.
That places a clear limit on what we are trying for.
If you think there’s not enough results, try it, and enjoy your krait weapons.
I am just saying that the krait weapon collection brought a greatly reduced chance of receiving a precursor.

Sample size is always the point when talking about irregularities.

Personally I tend to get about 50/50 when I use the MF, haven’t really reacted to getting more Krait weapons than other types.

And you don’t think that receiving so many of them is a result of a spin of the dial on the mystic forge towards krait weapons and away from precursors?

As I said, I have not reacted to getting more Krait weapons than other types, ergo I have not seen what you are describing.

Also keep in mind that the krait weapons are (as far as I am aware) Rare, and as such they would not have been a precursor anyway, seeing as precursors are Exotic.

The chance to get an Exotic in the Mystic Forge is quite low. And even if you are lucky enough to get that, you would still have to roll another roll (with an even smaller chance) to have that Exotic be an Precursor.

Yes, the krait weapons are rares. When you break it down to the rolls needed, it does make it unlikely that the MF was adjusted. I’ve been getting about 20% exotics on rares used, but also about 40% krait weapons. Hence my comment.

20% is the average for getting results from the next tier.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge

You have roughly 0.79% chance of getting a precursor when combining four exotics of the same type. Expect much less if doing rares.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Precursor_weapon

Yes, good info. And I consider those odds to be vastly superior to actually looting a precursor.

That’s funny. I’ve been getting Ceremonial weapons about 1-2/week on casual forges.

Tumult.2578:

And you don’t think that receiving so many of them is a result of a spin of the dial on the mystic forge towards krait weapons and away from precursors?

Distribution of possible Rare returns has nothing to do with the proportion of precursors returned.

It’s just backlogged and spewing all the krait GS’s out.
Anyone got a plunger?

RNG is RNG. Nothing more; nothing less.

Tumult.2578:

A minimum of 5 tries a day over 2 months has generated an inordinate amount of krait weapons.
So yeah, 300 tries at least, generated this comment.
Didn’t say anything about receiving rares.

Pro Tip: You could throw a million of them into the forge, and he’d still complain that your sample size was too small.

Forging rares on the highest table returns a rare 80% of the time. Of those rares, 7/17 will have the krait (crafted) skin, 6/17 will have the basic drop skin, and 5/17 will have the region specific skins (flame, norn, verdant, aureate, orrian).

Overall 31% of forges should return a krait weapon, or 39% of your rare returns.