Guild Wars 2

Would love to hear people’s horror stories!

Btw I leave you with this
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dzsRXRSnjrs&feature=fvwrel

Try not to be disheartened too much after watching

When I visited the forge months ago, I got Dusk on the first try as well. That was a week or so after I had gotten Dawn on the first try. Just rares. HA!

100 shortbows here, 100 there… After graduating I used all of my gems on 400 more shortbows and got nothing.
:(
But yay for whoever got Dusk. You?

Dawdler.8521:

When I visited the forge months ago, I got Dusk on the first try as well. That was a week or so after I had gotten Dawn on the first try. Just rares. HA!

Are you going to try and make eternity?

I have might have an inside man that might have told me that once a week, one of the precursors has its MF chance stealth increased. ’Splains multiple people getting Spark on their first try one week, and The Lover on their first try the next.

Does your magic find you have on actually play a role in the mystic forge I.e. should I stack MF before using the Toliet?

lilstev.3498:

Does your magic find you have on actually play a role in the mystic forge I.e. should I stack MF before using the Toliet?

That was a popular belief in the early days…but I believe a Dev came out to say the it has no effect on the Mystic Forge.

So I’m just guessing exotics increase your chances at drops than rares or at least that would make more sense.

lilstev.3498:

So I’m just guessing exotics increase your chances at drops than rares or at least that would make more sense.

Imo, using exotics is a waste. Your chances are so slim either way, you might as well use rares and sell the exotics to buy more rares and keep trying.

lilstev.3498:

So I’m just guessing exotics increase your chances at drops than rares or at least that would make more sense.

Well, rares in the Forge produce an exotic with something like a 20% chance. Exotics produce an exotic with a 100% chance. Precursors are always exotic, so if rares in the Forge produce a rare, there is no chance it will be a precursor, while an exotic always produces an exotic and therefore the result always has a chance to be a precursor.

So, on average tossing 400 exotics into the MF gives you 100 chances to produce a precursor, while 400 rares gives you 20 chances to produce a precursor. If the cost of the rares is less than 20% of the cost of the exotics it’s probably worth it to use rares, otherwise you are better off using exotics.

lilstev.3498:

So I’m just guessing exotics increase your chances at drops than rares or at least that would make more sense.

This is correct. The higher the rarity and lvl, the higher chance at getting a precursor. Though no one knows exactly how much of a higher chance it is.

I’m going to be honest, I really want a set % of chance said by anet. At the very least, I want to know my chances of survival before going into the lions den.

SeNoZinD.9874:

I’m going to be honest, I really want a set % of chance said by anet. At the very least, I want to know my chances of survival before going into the lions den.

Anet is now focused on monetization, rather than gameplay and the players, so they have no reason to tell you numbers.

I’m gonna derail the thread now with a positive story

I’ve been recording my mystic toilet stuff over the months. I have been keeping them to myself, but seeing as how I’ve gone off GW2 in liu of the recent grind additions I figure I’ll share my data.

I’ve made ~950 rare-on-rare combinations (lvl 80 rares, always same-type). Of which i received no precursors (0% success rate).

I’ve also made 131 exotic-on-exotic combines (Level 76-80, usually same-type). Of which I received 4 precursors (~3% success rate).

Of the precursors I recieved:

• x1 Lover in 10 shortbow combines
• x1 Legend in 26 staff combines
• No Dawn or Dusk in 14 greatsword combines
• x1 Colossus in 15 hammer combines
• No leaf of Kudzu in 15 longbow combines
• No Chosen after 31 shield combines
• No Spark in 3 dagger combines
• No Hunter in 14 rifle combines
• x1 Storm in 3 mixed-exotic combines.

In total I spent 556g on exotics to flush into the mystic toilet, and made a net profit of ~1,450g

In conclusion
If you want a precursor, you gotta chuck exotics in there, you’re wasting your time and resources on rares, and if you do that, you might just come out with a profit (I wasn’t even doing the combines because I needed them, I was in it for the money)

Very interesting. I’ve been told that the crafted exotics, like pearl ones, give a lower chance of producing a precursor. In your experience, was that generally the case? Or was it sort of up in the air, and random?

RNG gods have a twisted sense of humor.

Slave Driver in CoF p1 just spat a Zap.

ps: already got 2 Bolts. u bit late almighty fellas.

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Very interesting. I’ve been told that the crafted exotics, like pearl ones, give a lower chance of producing a precursor. In your experience, was that generally the case? Or was it sort of up in the air, and random?

I don’t believe it to be true. I tried many combinations of all-pearl, and all-named and the combines that actually spat out Precusors were never specifically all-named ones.

However, with a sample size of 4 precursors, you can’t really say with certainty, in fact it’d be nearly impossible to get such a large sample of precursors to conclusively say whether or not it is a factor

Ryuujin.8236:

I’m gonna derail the thread now with a positive story

I’ve been recording my mystic toilet stuff over the months. I have been keeping them to myself, but seeing as how I’ve gone off GW2 in liu of the recent grind additions I figure I’ll share my data.

I’ve made ~950 rare-on-rare combinations (lvl 80 rares, always same-type). Of which i received no precursors (0% success rate).

I’ve also made 131 exotic-on-exotic combines (Level 76-80, usually same-type). Of which I received 4 precursors (~3% success rate).

Of the precursors I recieved:

• x1 Lover in 10 shortbow combines
• x1 Legend in 26 staff combines
• No Dawn or Dusk in 14 greatsword combines
• x1 Colossus in 15 hammer combines
• No leaf of Kudzu in 15 longbow combines
• No Chosen after 31 shield combines
• No Spark in 3 dagger combines
• No Hunter in 14 rifle combines
• x1 Storm in 3 mixed-exotic combines.

In total I spent 556g on exotics to flush into the mystic toilet, and made a net profit of ~1,450g

In conclusion
If you want a precursor, you gotta chuck exotics in there, you’re wasting your time and resources on rares, and if you do that, you might just come out with a profit (I wasn’t even doing the combines because I needed them, I was in it for the money)

There is no way you purchased 524 exotics for 556g (even assuming you reused some of them and only had to purchase 400) this is still an outrageous assumption, unless you purchased them at the start of the game when they were worth next to nothing.

I only use the mystic toilet for dailies.

Clouded Judgement.7834:

There is no way you purchased 524 exotics for 556g (even assuming you reused some of them and only had to purchase 400) this is still an outrageous assumption, unless you purchased them at the start of the game when they were worth next to nothing.

Well, I just went to gw2spidy and searched for weapons, exotic, level 80.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/type/18?rarity_filter=5&min_level=80&max_level=80&sort_min_sale_unit_price=asc

Skip over the items with no listings (which show a min sale offer of 0 copper) and you will see several pages of weapons selling for 1.25 to 1.4 gold.

He could easily have purchased 400 exotics for 556 gold, from what I can see.

My horror story? You’ll have nightmares, but okay.

I’ve played Guild Wars 2 since launch and once I hit 80, I immediately began buying and tossing rares/exotics into the mystic forge every day. I began throwing in rares/exotics when I had about 1,400 gold so I could buy them off of the TP. I made it my goal to never go below 1,200 gold, and when I hit that mark, I would run CoF part 1 until I recuperated the money I had spent.

So I threw in rares/exotics every single day in the hopes for even a glimpse of a precursor. I must’ve thrown in well over 5,000 rares and over 2,000 exotics into the mystic toilet, and finally, I just said, “Screw it.” I spent all of my 1,400 gold on rares and threw them all into the mystic toilet hoping for a precursor. I didn’t even get a single. decent. exotic. I swear, the best exotic I got was worth about 3 gold. I very nearly broke my laptop in half after I got all that trash.

There is a massive issue when I can throw that much gold into the MF and get a bunch of crap and a laugh or two from the devs.

At the end, I probably threw away about 10,000 rares and 4,000 exotics. And yes, I am very aware that I could have simply “bought” the precursor, but for some reason, I thought the Mystic Forge actually liked me.

This definitely reminded me why I don’t gamble. I’m cursed with never, ever winning and losing everything I have.

I was so peeved in the end though, that I calmly salvaged all of my exotic gear/trinkets from all of my characters, and put everything I earned in the guild bank – I think a noob got 424 of my ectos and he was pretty happy about that. I told my guild that I dumped stacks of tier 6 mats in the bank and I saw like 300 members rush to the LA bank to grab it all haha.

There’s my sob story for you.

tolunart.2095:

lilstev.3498:

So I’m just guessing exotics increase your chances at drops than rares or at least that would make more sense.

Well, rares in the Forge produce an exotic with something like a 20% chance. Exotics produce an exotic with a 100% chance. Precursors are always exotic, so if rares in the Forge produce a rare, there is no chance it will be a precursor, while an exotic always produces an exotic and therefore the result always has a chance to be a precursor.

So, on average tossing 400 exotics into the MF gives you 100 chances to produce a precursor, while 400 rares gives you 20 chances to produce a precursor. If the cost of the rares is less than 20% of the cost of the exotics it’s probably worth it to use rares, otherwise you are better off using exotics.

You should also factor in the mystic forge stones, which everyone is currently sitting on a hefty bunch of.

Ryuujin.8236:

I’m gonna derail the thread now with a positive story

I’ve been recording my mystic toilet stuff over the months. I have been keeping them to myself, but seeing as how I’ve gone off GW2 in liu of the recent grind additions I figure I’ll share my data.

I’ve made ~950 rare-on-rare combinations (lvl 80 rares, always same-type). Of which i received no precursors (0% success rate).

I’ve also made 131 exotic-on-exotic combines (Level 76-80, usually same-type). Of which I received 4 precursors (~3% success rate).

Of the precursors I recieved:

• x1 Lover in 10 shortbow combines
• x1 Legend in 26 staff combines
• No Dawn or Dusk in 14 greatsword combines
• x1 Colossus in 15 hammer combines
• No leaf of Kudzu in 15 longbow combines
• No Chosen after 31 shield combines
• No Spark in 3 dagger combines
• No Hunter in 14 rifle combines
• x1 Storm in 3 mixed-exotic combines.

In total I spent 556g on exotics to flush into the mystic toilet, and made a net profit of ~1,450g

In conclusion
If you want a precursor, you gotta chuck exotics in there, you’re wasting your time and resources on rares, and if you do that, you might just come out with a profit (I wasn’t even doing the combines because I needed them, I was in it for the money)

Colossus after 40g~ worth of rares
Leaf of kudzu after 60g worth of rares
Spark after 140g worth of rares

In conclusion, if you want a precursor, just know that your chances suck either way and its all about RNG. Sorry but the higher percentage from using exotics could only be a 0.0005% increase for all we know

Clouded Judgement.7834:

There is no way you purchased 524 exotics for 556g (even assuming you reused some of them and only had to purchase 400) this is still an outrageous assumption, unless you purchased them at the start of the game when they were worth next to nothing.

Closer to ~400 exotics. Remember, while you need 4 exotics to make a combination attempt, you receive back an exotic in the event of not obtaining a precursor, so subsequent attempts only require 3 more exotics.

The bulk of these were bought around 3 months ago using buy orders with an average value of 1.4g per unit at that time.

Balkanwarrior.5132:

In conclusion, if you want a precursor, just know that your chances suck either way and its all about RNG. Sorry but the higher percentage from using exotics could only be a 0.0005% increase for all we know

While a sample size of 130ish is far from 5 sigma certainty, it’s certainly enough to narrow down the success rate to several percent either sisde.

Ryuujin.8236:

While a sample size of 130ish is far from 5 sigma certainty, it’s certainly enough to narrow down the success rate to several percent either sisde.

It narrows it down to between 0.63% and 7.5% at 98% confidence, roughly. The floor is more valuable, but this is you getting incredibly lucky over a small sample size.

When my material supplies build up enough I will craft rare and exotic greatswords and flush them down the toilet. To date I would roughly estimate around 400 exotics and well over 2000 rares. My results? Nothing. Not one precursor. The Random Number Gods hate me with a passion. Is there a Temple someplace where I can go and confess my sins and hopefully gain back their favor?

I once got the weapon that looks like spark, the cheap one, not the expensive one, it looked like spark so I was happy for a moment there, then I realized that it’s usoku’s needle and only cried for 3 hours…

Galtrix.7369:

My horror story? You’ll have nightmares, but okay.

I’ve played Guild Wars 2 since launch and once I hit 80, I immediately began buying and tossing rares/exotics into the mystic forge every day. I began throwing in rares/exotics when I had about 1,400 gold so I could buy them off of the TP. I made it my goal to never go below 1,200 gold, and when I hit that mark, I would run CoF part 1 until I recuperated the money I had spent.

So I threw in rares/exotics every single day in the hopes for even a glimpse of a precursor. I must’ve thrown in well over 5,000 rares and over 2,000 exotics into the mystic toilet, and finally, I just said, “Screw it.” I spent all of my 1,400 gold on rares and threw them all into the mystic toilet hoping for a precursor. I didn’t even get a single. decent. exotic. I swear, the best exotic I got was worth about 3 gold. I very nearly broke my laptop in half after I got all that trash.

There is a massive issue when I can throw that much gold into the MF and get a bunch of crap and a laugh or two from the devs.

At the end, I probably threw away about 10,000 rares and 4,000 exotics. And yes, I am very aware that I could have simply “bought” the precursor, but for some reason, I thought the Mystic Forge actually liked me.

This definitely reminded me why I don’t gamble. I’m cursed with never, ever winning and losing everything I have.

I was so peeved in the end though, that I calmly salvaged all of my exotic gear/trinkets from all of my characters, and put everything I earned in the guild bank – I think a noob got 424 of my ectos and he was pretty happy about that. I told my guild that I dumped stacks of tier 6 mats in the bank and I saw like 300 members rush to the LA bank to grab it all haha.

There’s my sob story for you.

This is so eerily similar to the exact same thing to happen to an ex-guild member of mine. He had the same type of bad luck as you (I don’t think he had quite as much as you though). He would always seem to be in the party with others that got the awesome precursor drops from random mobs, but never him. Never any good drops actually. One day he just said “f- it” and spent every single gold he had trying to forge the precursor for his legendary. He didn’t get anything of any real value at all, got completely peeved, salvaged all his stuff, put it in the guild bank, and quit the game forever. This was around January-ish? He still hasn’t played again.

Geikamir.6329:

Galtrix.7369:

My horror story? You’ll have nightmares, but okay.

I’ve played Guild Wars 2 since launch and once I hit 80, I immediately began buying and tossing rares/exotics into the mystic forge every day. I began throwing in rares/exotics when I had about 1,400 gold so I could buy them off of the TP. I made it my goal to never go below 1,200 gold, and when I hit that mark, I would run CoF part 1 until I recuperated the money I had spent.

So I threw in rares/exotics every single day in the hopes for even a glimpse of a precursor. I must’ve thrown in well over 5,000 rares and over 2,000 exotics into the mystic toilet, and finally, I just said, “Screw it.” I spent all of my 1,400 gold on rares and threw them all into the mystic toilet hoping for a precursor. I didn’t even get a single. decent. exotic. I swear, the best exotic I got was worth about 3 gold. I very nearly broke my laptop in half after I got all that trash.

There is a massive issue when I can throw that much gold into the MF and get a bunch of crap and a laugh or two from the devs.

At the end, I probably threw away about 10,000 rares and 4,000 exotics. And yes, I am very aware that I could have simply “bought” the precursor, but for some reason, I thought the Mystic Forge actually liked me.

This definitely reminded me why I don’t gamble. I’m cursed with never, ever winning and losing everything I have.

I was so peeved in the end though, that I calmly salvaged all of my exotic gear/trinkets from all of my characters, and put everything I earned in the guild bank – I think a noob got 424 of my ectos and he was pretty happy about that. I told my guild that I dumped stacks of tier 6 mats in the bank and I saw like 300 members rush to the LA bank to grab it all haha.

There’s my sob story for you.

This is so eerily similar to the exact same thing to happen to an ex-guild member of mine. He had the same type of bad luck as you (I don’t think he had quite as much as you though). He would always seem to be in the party with others that got the awesome precursor drops from random mobs, but never him. Never any good drops actually. One day he just said “f- it” and spent every single gold he had trying to forge the precursor for his legendary. He didn’t get anything of any real value at all, got completely peeved, salvaged all his stuff, put it in the guild bank, and quit the game forever. This was around January-ish? He still hasn’t played again.

Oh yeah, I’m pretty convinced that some accounts are tagged with bad luck and some are tagged with good luck. One of my friends mystic forged two precursors in a row about 3 weeks before this happened to me, and when this did happen I just snapped. I still haven’t played, but I visit the forums every once in awhile to see if any new content is worth checking out. I haven’t seen any content that would even be close to bringing me back to this game though. And actually, you would be surprised how common this event is. I told my guildies I was done and they said, “Good luck, have fun with the other 50+ guild members playing WoW.” I asked them what they meant by that, and they said that about 50 people did the same thing I did.

I bought about 48 rare shields for like 11g just to test out this mystic toilet precursor stuff and got nothing. Then I said one day…. Me and my guildies go and kill these world bosses everyday and many of us get like 15-20 rares from this so I created the Guild Go-Fish where after we do our daily rotation of bosses we exchange rares with each other. If I have a greatsword and you have a shield we switch and we both need each others item we trade with each other.

It just so happens that I accumulated my first 4 shields from this Go-Fish and threw them in the forge and got the precursor lol. After this all my guildies got in on the Go-Fish idea.

Fyi for those curious I have a lvl 77 n 78 rare along with 2 80s that made the precursor.

I spent maybe 1g in wp costs, and got a dusk for about 700k karma.

Tom Gore.4035:

You should also factor in the mystic forge stones, which everyone is currently sitting on a hefty bunch of.

If the wiki is to be believed, using 3 weapons + a stone can just as well give you an exotic armour as an exotic weapon, which you don’t want if you’re chasing precursors.