Guild Wars 2

For GW2, numbers are up slightly, 3.9%, from 4Q 2014 with direct income (not including royalties) of 20,026 million KrW.

“The announcement of a GW2 expansion pack renewed user interest, which led to solid and consistent sales in Year 3 of GW2.”

Overall NCSOFT income is up Year over Year (YoY) by 5.6% but profits are down 2.6%. From last quarter NCSOFT income is down 20.0% and profits down 42.9%. Profits this quarter are 18.9% of this quarter’s income at 35,601 million KrW.

Lineage is up 61% YoY but down 31.7% from last quarter.
Lineage II is down 5% YoY and down 43.5% from last quarter.
AION is down 17.8% YoY and down 12.8% from last quarter.
B&S is up 39.2% YoY and up 8.9% from last quarter.
GW2 is down 20.3% YoY but up 3.9% from last quarter.
Wildstar is down 52.8% from last quarter.
Other Games is up 23.9% YoY and up 9.5% from last quarter.
Royalties are down 42.5% YoY and down 21.0% from last quarter.

GW2 is currently #3 in income this quarter behind Lineage and Blade & Soul. GW2 direct income (non-royalty) is 10.6% of NCSOFT’s quarterly income.

1Q 2015 numbers in millions of KrW

Lineage – 66,024
Lineage II – 11,010
AION – 18,258
Blade & Soul – 26,771
Guild Wars 2 – 20,026
WildStar – 2,593
Other – 17,800
Royalty – 25,631

You can get the English release here.

http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/quarterly.aspx

It is nice to see that the HoT did manage to get numbers up again. It shows how people are more interested in expansions as in the Living Story approach as no LS was able to do that, while only the announcement of an expansion does. Of course also the sales will have helped a lot to attract new peoples and from existing players who did buy a second account.

At the same time I notice in game that many of the people who came back during the announcement already left again, coming back when HoT really gets released. So if HoT gets released in Q3 and there will be no special events until then I expect again lower income in Q2.

Big question is how HoT will be sold (I expect good, while not as good as it could have been because of some of the damage done) and how it performs the half a year after release (so basically Q4 or more Q1). That will be very important for the long-longevity for GW2. If with HoT they manage to get rid of the never ending grind, and get a fun game gain where collecting becomes fun game-play then this game might have a long life-spawn, if not, I expect it will scale down after that.

guild wars is doing really good but who would expect other than that. From the report all i can say is poor wildstar people were so scared of free to play/buy to play but when i look at the numbers now I think they should be afraid if the game has any future since ncsoft doesnt mind closing a game within its first year if its not profitable enough
edit: B & S got such a boost because of the taiwan release right?

Devata.6589:

If with HoT they manage to get rid of the never ending grind, and get a fun game gain where collecting becomes fun game-play then this game might have a long life-spawn, if not, I expect it will scale down after that.

Because i will get bored to say to you the same things , when the x-packs launches (will have other targets) , lets do this again ….

4% of the population in WoD did rep farming to get ‘’vanity items’’ , as oposed in the previous x-pansions where those items offered Power/boost for raids/pvp
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1747902-Reputations-in-WoD-an-absolute-failure
So the ’’most’’ ppl that left GW2 , because they couldnt hunt the items ingame and not in the gem store its not true :P

PPl hate the idea for yearly x-packs + 3 months updates as you can see here in the forums (also in the moo champion poll)
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1773793-Do-you-want-a-1-year-expansion

In every game , there is a population drop after an x-pack
(WoD -30% population , -2,9 million ppl)

GW1 x-packs made 7 million per year
GW2 cant subtain itself with those numbers

Edit : If you want more items/gear in game , you wish will come true .
If you wish , less gem/gold transaction cost , i almost can guarantee it .
But if i see some old conversations again , i will Kamehame my pc :P

Killthehealersffs.8940:

Devata.6589:

If with HoT they manage to get rid of the never ending grind, and get a fun game gain where collecting becomes fun game-play then this game might have a long life-spawn, if not, I expect it will scale down after that.

Because i will get bored to say to you the same things , when the x-packs launches (will have other targets) , lets do this again ….

4% of the population in WoD did rep farming to get ‘’vanity items’’ , as oposed in the previous x-pansions where those items offered Power/boost for raids/pvp
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1747902-Reputations-in-WoD-an-absolute-failure
So the ’’most’’ ppl that left GW2 , because they couldnt hunt the items ingame and not in the gem store its not true :P

PPl hate the idea for yearly x-packs + 3 months updates as you can see here in the forums (also in the moo champion poll)
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1773793-Do-you-want-a-1-year-expansion

In every game , there is a population drop after an x-pack
(WoD -30% population , -2,9 million ppl)

GW1 x-packs made 7 million per year
GW2 cant subtain itself with those numbers

Edit : If you want more items/gear in game , you wish will come true .
If you wish , less gem/gold transaction cost , i almost can guarantee it .
But if i see some old conversations again , i will Kamehame my pc :P

Your example of where people did not want it is WoW, a P2P game. Sure, I would not want yearly expansion and a sub as well. Yearly expansion would be the B2P way of earning money so it would not need to have a sub and not to have the cash-shop focus.

Multiple people including me also did explain you multiple times you can’t compare GW1 to GW2 in exact numbers. So the 7 million is a irrelevant number. Want to compare GW1 to GW2 then use initial sale as 100% and then compare the income after a year / with the release of an expansion to that 100%. GW2 made with its expansions (campaigns) on average 100% of the money they made with the initial sale, GW2 does not even come close to that. Anyway, this has been explained so many times to you, it’s probably a waste of time.

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months
an extra —3 or -4 if the need time to create the next x-pack
= that means with yearly x-pansions there will less conent ingame (just like last year , when the game launhed in China or even this year content)……
Even the ppl in WoW hate it … and neither we have the next date for the WOw x-pack (they original planned 1 yeal x-packs – that one that the old gg are w8 to listen…)

And your idea of less money = that automatically GW2 will goes into the ’’passive’’ mode where it will stop risking to inovate things and will adopt the other games behavour , where they will w8 and copy-paste other games riskless ideas …

Cant you understand that ?
Or shall be harsh enought to be Banned again for 10 days , while i atacked a prestigious PvE raider in a CDI ?

My god wildstar is doing awful. Great game too. I was on their forum yesterday and they had white knights claiming the numbers for q1 would be through the roof because so many players were coming Back. Wow.

The expansion certainly increased hype. I just hope they release before Q2 is over or I suspect the numbers will be in free fall. There hasn’t been a content update in months and not even a release date for the expansion yet. It seems Anet put everyone on the expansion and forgot the game is still live.

Though once the expansion launches I suspect it will be a big boost to GW2.

Poor Wildstar. That game had a ton of potential, but it was just lacking something. I can’t even put my finger on it, but it is the first MMO i’ve ever played that I didn’t even make it to max level. Awesome combat though.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months

I’m not sure you understand how holidays work for adults. Or summers.

I feel bad for Wildstar.

Good job Anet…traditionally Q1 is always the weakest, yet GW2 managed to top Q4 which is traditionally the strongest Q!

And lol to Wildstar…people there are just denying reality – talking about a big influx of new players…yeah, we can see. I don’t feel sorry for that arrogant dev team. They will be THE next big MMO, competing with WoW? They made everything wrong one can possibly do wrong. Let it go, make it F2P and end the pain for your struggling community.

Wildstar had hype like HoT but they drowned. Why? Because engine was (is) awful. That was the first mmo I uninstalled after 5 mins because of 20fps average in starting area. You can’t make a game with no multicore support.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months
an extra —3 or -4 if the need time to create the next x-pack
= that means with yearly x-pansions there will less conent ingame (just like last year , when the game launhed in China or even this year content)……
Even the ppl in WoW hate it … and neither we have the next date for the WOw x-pack (they original planned 1 yeal x-packs – that one that the old gg are w8 to listen…)

And your idea of less money = that automatically GW2 will goes into the ’’passive’’ mode where it will stop risking to inovate things and will adopt the other games behavour , where they will w8 and copy-paste other games riskless ideas …

Cant you understand that ?
Or shall be harsh enought to be Banned again for 10 days , while i atacked a prestigious PvE raider in a CDI ?

I am not sure what you are getting at?

Are you saying that if GW2 was to release an expansion each year, that it will be less content in-game?

Also on your timeline, you basically leave 4-6 months of development for each expansion per year. Which isn’t entirly accurate. There are no summer breaks in the work place (Unless it’s a seasonal job, like landscaping, or house painting). And generally (at least in the US) any major holidays (i.e. Christmas, Thanksgiving, Independance day, etc.) usually only give a 3 day weekend, not muliple week breaks. In same cases, some employers may give a few additional days off between Christmas and New Years, but not often.

You also seem to be forgetting that Anet has been working on this project for quite some time. Its been aluded to many times last year that Anet was working on “big projects” in the background, but wouldn’t hint at or say anything else.

arakkune.1429:

guild wars is doing really good but who would expect other than that. From the report all i can say is poor wildstar people were so scared of free to play/buy to play but when i look at the numbers now I think they should be afraid if the game has any future since ncsoft doesnt mind closing a game within its first year if its not profitable enough
edit: B & S got such a boost because of the taiwan release right?

Yeah with numbers that low I don’t expect Wildstar to even go F2P or B2P, I expect Wildstar to just get canned by NCsoft.

Ragnarox.9601:

Wildstar had hype like HoT but they drowned. Why? Because engine was (is) awful. That was the first mmo I uninstalled after 5 mins because of 20fps average in starting area. You can’t make a game with no multicore support.

yet GW2 has no multi core support and succeeds….and when i was playing wildstar in beta i had a constant 60fps rate all the time.

sorudo.9054:

Ragnarox.9601:

Wildstar had hype like HoT but they drowned. Why? Because engine was (is) awful. That was the first mmo I uninstalled after 5 mins because of 20fps average in starting area. You can’t make a game with no multicore support.

yet GW2 has no multi core support and succeeds….and when i was playing wildstar in beta i had a constant 60fps rate all the time.

Well you were the lucky one with 60fps but 99% like me wasn’t so we quit.

Now if they ever get Blade & Soul to NA, I’d drop GW2 instantly.

DeamonSamurai.6504:

Now if they ever get Blade & Soul to NA, I’d drop GW2 instantly.

I’m in the same boat. Even if it is a P2P game and only play it Sundays. Had the luck to play it for a month or so in a private server, absolutely love it. <3

Azure.8670:

My god wildstar is doing awful. Great game too. I was on their forum yesterday and they had white knights claiming the numbers for q1 would be through the roof because so many players were coming Back. Wow.

whatever they are experiencing recently would be considered q2. q1 ended in march

honestly thought it would be a little higher, but eh whatevs.

That’s good Gw2 managed to raise some eyebrows, hopefully they can raise that number higher when the Xpack drops.

Side note, Wildstar needs to swallow their pride and go F2P already. Every time I see WS all I need is numbers falling rather quickly. I don’t see how doing that will impact them negatively. (Tera and Rift did the same thing, they are very much successful currently. They aren’t NCSoft but you get the point.)

Poor Wildstar I keep hoping it’ll rebound, and would even like to go back, but they don’t have the type of content I want. Great game in the wrong era. It’s combat and character system are top notch, miles above GW2. In a post-wow community saturated by wow clones though, a vertical-grinding, raid-centric game is not going to cut it. WS is an AWESOME game… it’s just the wrong one.

This can have a positive impact, in which they deliver the sheer amount of content ppl expect from a company that openly declared they worked on for 2-3 years?

Or it can have the negative impact in which they don’t deliver and ppl who were playing and hoping for HoT to be the holy grail of expansion will simply just give up and be done with the game.

If you ask me, that’s why you don’t see any more LS updates. They are feeling the pressure fullforce to deliver and know what’s at stake here…so all resources go exclusively into finishing/polishing this expansion. That being said, it doesn’t guarantee it will meet the demand and expectations they created by themselves for the active playerbase.

Killthehealersffs.8940:

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months

Lol no. First of all this isn’t high-school they don’t get Summer off and probably only get a couple days off for Christmas. Second, there would only be a few days a year where the company is shut down. Any other individual vacations would be planned in a way that work can still get done.

I love the armchair economists speaking with authority on these results. I wonder how many posts until we get to " … and so you see, this is why Anet needs to eliminate grind" or " … and so you see, this is why <precursors> or <mounts>"

Killthehealersffs.8940:

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months
an extra —3 or -4 if the need time to create the next x-pack
= that means with yearly x-pansions there will less conent ingame (just like last year , when the game launhed in China or even this year content)……
Even the ppl in WoW hate it … and neither we have the next date for the WOw x-pack (they original planned 1 yeal x-packs – that one that the old gg are w8 to listen…)

And your idea of less money = that automatically GW2 will goes into the ’’passive’’ mode where it will stop risking to inovate things and will adopt the other games behavour , where they will w8 and copy-paste other games riskless ideas …

Cant you understand that ?
Or shall be harsh enought to be Banned again for 10 days , while i atacked a prestigious PvE raider in a CDI ?

The current model resulted in less money, what I suggested was more based on the numbers. And as you see in results posted by the OP, even the mention of a expansion increases income. You can keep repeating it’s not what some people want, but the numbers seem to proof otherwise.

Can’t you understand that?

And about how it would not be possible to release an expansion in a year or you would get less content. Likely the biggest part of HoT has been build in a year because the Chinese release was only a year ago (tomorrow, to be exact) and before their attention shifted to the Chinese release they where still very much focused on the LS approach of releasing content in stead of expansions. So while they for sure will have some things in HoT that will have been worked on for a longer period, HoT will likely have been build mainly in a years time (and a few months).

“Or shall be harsh enought to be Banned again for 10 days , while i atacked a prestigious PvE raider in a CDI ?” So you think that if you attack somebody you are right? Well that maybe that is the problem?

It really amazes me how, even with these numbers, you can still try to claim yealy expansions are not the way to go. Living story, after living story income did decrease. Q4 of 2014 had multiple LS released, however, income was still lower, and that for a Q4 that is usually higher. Q1 only had one LS release, the big difference is that it was when the HoT expansion was announced, and incomes increases again. These numbers only back up my story about how yearly expansion are the way to go.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

The expansion certainly increased hype. I just hope they release before Q2 is over or I suspect the numbers will be in free fall. There hasn’t been a content update in months and not even a release date for the expansion yet. It seems Anet put everyone on the expansion and forgot the game is still live.

Though once the expansion launches I suspect it will be a big boost to GW2.

Poor Wildstar. That game had a ton of potential, but it was just lacking something. I can’t even put my finger on it, but it is the first MMO i’ve ever played that I didn’t even make it to max level. Awesome combat though.

While I did never play it, I did always wonder what the buzz was all about. It was basically WoW with alien cashed in it. It’s a mix I don’t think really fits. Then they did throw in some Team Fortress / Battlefield Heroes and used that cartoon style / humor. I just always wondered how the humor would keep working in a game like that. It works great in trailers but in-game?

Lastly they introduced this ‘great’ combat mechanism Combat Telegraphs. They made trailers about that.. it are lines / area’s on the floor you need to stay out of. That is not fun. People already complain about the dodging out of circles in GW2, but Wildstar’s telegraphs is 10 times worse / immersion breaking.

They also said they do not need to reinvent the wheel so can look at other games like WoW and they are 100% right (in fact, GW2 did try to hard to be different for the sake of being different. While they did come back on the a little)… but if they then also ask a subscription, why would people go from another game to that game? If it was B2P or likely even F2P it would have probably be more successful and made more money. However, again in an effort to try and increase result they lowered result. The same problem as GW2 has only with Wildstar was way, way worse.

CodeHavoc.7926:

That’s good Gw2 managed to raise some eyebrows, hopefully they can raise that number higher when the Xpack drops.

Side note, Wildstar needs to swallow their pride and go F2P already. Every time I see WS all I need is numbers falling rather quickly. I don’t see how doing that will impact them negatively. (Tera and Rift did the same thing, they are very much successful currently. They aren’t NCSoft but you get the point.)

“hopefully they can raise that number higher when the Xpack drops.” Obviously they can. The important question will be how income will go in the half year after HoT gets released. Will it manage to stay stable at a higher income (of course it will always drop a little after the initial release of the expansion) or will it be back at where is was in Q4 of 2014 when we are half a year later. (so if it released at the end of Q2 / beginning Q3 then the results of Q4 and Q1 will be most important for GW2) when looking at it for the longer run. It will be really interesting to see them, while we probably will know how it will go fast enough when playing HoT.

So they are on the decline from an overall standpoint, and broke ahead a little probably due to HoT hype and the recent GW2 fire sale.

BrooksP.4318:

So they are on the decline from an overall standpoint, and broke ahead a little probably due to HoT hype and the recent GW2 fire sale.

It wasn’t a fire sale it was increasing the base for HoT sales…

Guhracie.3419:

Killthehealersffs.8940:

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months

I’m not sure you understand how holidays work for adults. Or summers.

Ha, I was thinking the same thing.

Devata.6589:

Killthehealersffs.8940:

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months
an extra —3 or -4 if the need time to create the next x-pack
= that means with yearly x-pansions there will less conent ingame (just like last year , when the game launhed in China or even this year content)……
Even the ppl in WoW hate it … and neither we have the next date for the WOw x-pack (they original planned 1 yeal x-packs – that one that the old gg are w8 to listen…)

And your idea of less money = that automatically GW2 will goes into the ’’passive’’ mode where it will stop risking to inovate things and will adopt the other games behavour , where they will w8 and copy-paste other games riskless ideas …

Cant you understand that ?
Or shall be harsh enought to be Banned again for 10 days , while i atacked a prestigious PvE raider in a CDI ?

The current model resulted in less money, what I suggested was more based on the numbers. And as you see in results posted by the OP, even the mention of a expansion increases income. You can keep repeating it’s not what some people want, but the numbers seem to proof otherwise.

How can you say that with any authority? There never was a previous model and if you are talking GW, the largest quarter they ever had was 4Q2006 with 18,635 million KrW. GW2 has yet to be below that. The best 4 consecutive quarters of GW was 57,830 million KrW (2Q2006 to 1Q2007); the worst 4 consecutive quarters of GW2 was 80,490 million KrW.

The only thing GW had was a relatively steady stream of income during it’s first 3 years and that’s because it was from a time when PC games on shelves were still a thing, something that having a new box release every year or so helped, as well as stoking sales of the previous boxes. GW2 came out at a time when non-Sims, non-Blizzard PC games had maybe 6 linear feet of shelf space and BestBuy, WalMart and Target? Maybe one side of a small mid floor display at GameStop to hold all unsold PC games from the last 5 years?

Obtena.7952:

I love the armchair economists speaking with authority on these results. I wonder how many posts until we get to " … and so you see, this is why Anet needs to eliminate grind" or " … and so you see, this is why <precursors> or <mounts>"

Was it not you that in the other thread: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/No-grind-philosophy-1/page/4#post5026189 was trying to dis-miss the grind-problem acting as a armchair economist?

In the thread where I said expansions would be a good way to focus on in stead of the cash-shop (indeed so they could move away from the grind, as that thread was about grind). You even dismissed that because I was comparing GW1 to GW2 to come to that conclusion.

You are right, these numbers do not say anything about grind, or precursors or mounds. But they do say something about expansions.

BrooksP.4318:

So they are on the decline from an overall standpoint, and broke ahead a little probably due to HoT hype and the recent GW2 fire sale.

You sound so negative, but you can also use this information to make some conclusions bases on this.

So what can you conclude from it? Expansions are able to break the decline.

Behellagh.1468:

Devata.6589:

Killthehealersffs.8940:

But again you must read the reactions of the ppl in every forums and games …

GW2 Devs must takes the holidays Breaks (Christmass + Summer) = that means -3 less contents months
an extra —3 or -4 if the need time to create the next x-pack
= that means with yearly x-pansions there will less conent ingame (just like last year , when the game launhed in China or even this year content)……
Even the ppl in WoW hate it … and neither we have the next date for the WOw x-pack (they original planned 1 yeal x-packs – that one that the old gg are w8 to listen…)

And your idea of less money = that automatically GW2 will goes into the ’’passive’’ mode where it will stop risking to inovate things and will adopt the other games behavour , where they will w8 and copy-paste other games riskless ideas …

Cant you understand that ?
Or shall be harsh enought to be Banned again for 10 days , while i atacked a prestigious PvE raider in a CDI ?

The current model resulted in less money, what I suggested was more based on the numbers. And as you see in results posted by the OP, even the mention of a expansion increases income. You can keep repeating it’s not what some people want, but the numbers seem to proof otherwise.

How can you say that with any authority? There never was a previous model and if you are talking GW, the largest quarter they ever had was 4Q2006 with 18,635 million KrW. GW2 has yet to be below that. The best 4 consecutive quarters of GW was 57,830 million KrW (2Q2006 to 1Q2007); the worst 4 consecutive quarters of GW2 was 80,490 million KrW.

The only thing GW had was a relatively steady stream of income during it’s first 3 years and that’s because it was from a time when PC games on shelves were still a thing, something that having a new box release every year or so helped, as well as stoking sales of the previous boxes. GW2 came out at a time when non-Sims, non-Blizzard PC games had maybe 6 linear feet of shelf space and BestBuy, WalMart and Target? Maybe one side of a small mid floor display at GameStop to hold all unsold PC games from the last 5 years?

“How can you say that with any authority? There never was a previous model and if you are talking GW” We where talking about the GW1 model applied to GW2 based on the numbers. Explained in this comment: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/NCSOFT-1Q-2015-Results/first#post5061015

It was an ongoing discussion I had with Kill, but because he did not quote me I can understand how it’s a little confusing.

“The only thing GW had was a relatively steady stream of income during it’s first 3 years” So pretty much for it’s real life-spawn. After those 3 years the focus shifted to GW2. Anyway, it’s that steady income I talked about. A year (and two years) after release GW1 made about as much money as it did on release while GW2 had dropped a lot already. So when applied it to GW2 (and if it would work the same) you would have had made more money.

“that’s because it was from a time when PC games on shelves were still a thing” Not sure how you come to the conclusion that because people now also buy a lot of games online that would have any effect on this.

“something that having a new box release every year or so helped, as well as stoking sales of the previous boxes.” So what you are trying to say is that because people buy the game online this would not be true anymore? You do understand these results posted here very much suggest they do. Also you do not explain why it would not work anymore.

“GW2 came out at a time when non-Sims, non-Blizzard PC games had maybe 6 linear feet of shelf space and BestBuy, WalMart and Target? Maybe one side of a small mid floor display at GameStop to hold all unsold PC games from the last 5 years?” So.. what is your point? Many PC gamers buy there games online.. yeah.. fine. How does that change anything about how expansions increase sale and how yearly expansion might work for a more steady income overall? Missing the correlation here.

ArenaNet Needs More Shinies? We Get Shinies Fast!

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The only thing that can save GW2 is…

Playable Skritt.

I’m looking forward to the release of Rise of the Skritt next year, and with it, GW2’s inevitable salvation.

Devata.6589:

BrooksP.4318:

So they are on the decline from an overall standpoint, and broke ahead a little probably due to HoT hype and the recent GW2 fire sale.

You sound so negative, but you can also use this information to make some conclusions bases on this.

So what can you conclude from it? Expansions are able to break the decline.

Expansions will only continue to cause peaks, and depending on how well or how long those peaks last can be risky, not to mention how well it can sustain the fall. With HoT looking somewhat lackluster in scale and depending on price point, might set up future expansions to fail.

The negativity is mostly just confirmation of an assumption, because it somewhat shows that the current business model isn’t as sustainable as some think.

Devata.6589:

“How can you say that with any authority? There never was a previous model and if you are talking GW” We where talking about the GW1 model applied to GW2 based on the numbers. Explained in this comment: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/NCSOFT-1Q-2015-Results/first#post5061015

It was an ongoing discussion I had with Kill, but because he did not quote me I can understand how it’s a little confusing.

“The only thing GW had was a relatively steady stream of income during it’s first 3 years” So pretty much for it’s real life-spawn. After those 3 years the focus shifted to GW2. Anyway, it’s that steady income I talked about. A year (and two years) after release GW1 made about as much money as it did on release while GW2 had dropped a lot already. So when applied it to GW2 (and if it would work the same) you would have had made more money.

“that’s because it was from a time when PC games on shelves were still a thing” Not sure how you come to the conclusion that because people now also buy a lot of games online that would have any effect on this.

“something that having a new box release every year or so helped, as well as stoking sales of the previous boxes.” So what you are trying to say is that because people buy the game online this would not be true anymore? You do understand these results posted here very much suggest they do. Also you do not explain why it would not work anymore.

“GW2 came out at a time when non-Sims, non-Blizzard PC games had maybe 6 linear feet of shelf space and BestBuy, WalMart and Target? Maybe one side of a small mid floor display at GameStop to hold all unsold PC games from the last 5 years?” So.. what is your point? Many PC gamers buy there games online.. yeah.. fine. How does that change anything about how expansions increase sale and how yearly expansion might work for a more steady income overall? Missing the correlation here.

The point is that before the shift to digital purchasing, it was essentially free advertising having a box on the shelf. GW’s “new” campaigns kept the brand up in front of eyes of potential customers looking for a new game to buy. A new “expansion”, that campaigns weren’t really, drives sales of the original.

The loss of this vector of getting eyes on product is a big hit in terms of driving purchases. Since shelve space is a limited commodity, what was on the shelves were a mix of what’s new and what’s popular. It’s curated, yes by upfront money from distributors but you didn’t have a near unless number of games to choose from via digital download. Sure Steam recently added curated selections and try to guess your preferences and show you similar titles but that doesn’t replace walking down an aisle of PC games and having an interesting title or box art catch you eye. Or having a chunk of shelf space with a large number of the same title facing you, universal sign of “I’m new”.

So how many GW players started with a later campaign and back filled? So instead of their 1st title being on display for only a few months you have each campaign keeping the brand “Guild Wars” front and center for two years. Then you had the combo box sets appearing for several more years. All of that is free advertising of the brand. All of that drive player sales.

What we have now are a few shelves in stores that use to have multiple aisles for PC gaming. A potential player has to come here to buy the game since it’s not on Steam or any other PC digital distributor of games. GameStop didn’t even carry the box but sold you a serial number for download. Sure you can buy it from Amazon like everything else but again you have to be looking for the game first. Once off the shelve it’s out of sight out of mind.

This is a different era for selling PC games. What helped sales with GW doesn’t exist anymore. You aren’t getting impulse buyers at full price. You aren’t keeping a brand in front of people for years every time they visit the store. Therefore popping out an expansion every 6 to 12 months may work well for those already playing but it won’t drive new people to the game. Not the same way as before.

BTW I am the OP of this thread.

Azure.8670:

My god wildstar is doing awful. Great game too. I was on their forum yesterday and they had white knights claiming the numbers for q1 would be through the roof because so many players were coming Back. Wow.

That number, assuming no new box sales, is approximately 50-60K subscriptions. And maybe players who bought 6-12 month subscription packages are back playing but those who stopped haven’t.

Then there’s this rumor.

http://massivelyop.com/2015/05/13/rumor-wildstar-is-coming-to-steam-and-might-be-going-f2p/

That might get old players back to try the changes they’ve implemented and that may pull in some players who left after launch.

There is also this rumor about B&S.

http://massivelyop.com/2015/05/14/rumor-blade-soul-is-being-tested-internally-for-us-release/

B&S is slowly growing in earnings. Still it wasn’t a big hit like AION was when it came out but it’s currently #2 in income behind Lineage.

Devata.6589:

You are right, these numbers do not say anything about grind, or precursors or mounds. But they do say something about expansions.

This is how it start man. … <expansions, not LS> AMIRITE?!! I hope everyone’s padding is refreshed on their armchairs.

Behellagh.1468:

The point is that before the shift to digital purchasing, it was essentially free advertising having a box on the shelf. GW’s “new” campaigns kept the brand up in front of eyes of potential customers looking for a new game to buy. A new “expansion”, that campaigns weren’t really, drives sales of the original.

The loss of this vector of getting eyes on product is a big hit in terms of driving purchases. Since shelve space is a limited commodity, what was on the shelves were a mix of what’s new and what’s popular. It’s curated, yes by upfront money from distributors but you didn’t have a near unless number of games to choose from via digital download. Sure Steam recently added curated selections and try to guess your preferences and show you similar titles but that doesn’t replace walking down an aisle of PC games and having an interesting title or box art catch you eye. Or having a chunk of shelf space with a large number of the same title facing you, universal sign of “I’m new”.

So how many GW players started with a later campaign and back filled? So instead of their 1st title being on display for only a few months you have each campaign keeping the brand “Guild Wars” front and center for two years. Then you had the combo box sets appearing for several more years. All of that is free advertising of the brand. All of that drive player sales.

What we have now are a few shelves in stores that use to have multiple aisles for PC gaming. A potential player has to come here to buy the game since it’s not on Steam or any other PC digital distributor of games. GameStop didn’t even carry the box but sold you a serial number for download. Sure you can buy it from Amazon like everything else but again you have to be looking for the game first. Once off the shelve it’s out of sight out of mind.

This is a different era for selling PC games. What helped sales with GW doesn’t exist anymore. You aren’t getting impulse buyers at full price. You aren’t keeping a brand in front of people for years every time they visit the store. Therefore popping out an expansion every 6 to 12 months may work well for those already playing but it won’t drive new people to the game. Not the same way as before.

BTW I am the OP of this thread.

the “box” props still exists. Now , instead of seeing boxes in an aisle, people see reviews, features, and ads in their favorite online stores/websites. The expansion/dlc/new game sales are still showing having a new packaged (digitally) product brings in sales.

Now if you think expansion is bad for picking up new players/getting return players, you know whats worse? gem store, because only people playing see it.

anyhow the point, and it is true, if gw2 could continue to sell boxes to the initial purchasers as well as gw1 did, every year or so, they would have made more money than gw2 current business plan did.

The main flaw in the theory, is gw2 has not shown in the past the ability to create enough content/upgrades to compete with what gw1 brought to the table in terms of campaigns.

Never said expansion is bad. I’m saying the model that GW used isn’t as effective anymore in an age if digital distribution.

And since the game’s underpinnings are very different than GW2, there was no chance that GW2 could deliver a similar amount of content that each GW campaign did every 6-12 months. We got an 80 level true MMO vs three 20-level hub/instance quests MMO.

Sorry you are all comparing apples to emus here.

As I see it, there are two things a lot of people here seem to be ignoring. Yes, the uptrend in sales over last quarter is marginal, but last quarter was also the Christmas season which means beating it in the next quarter can be misleading. Most games don’t beat the Christmas quarter at all, because ‘tis the season’.

And let’s not forget, a lot of the sales we’ve seen are at 25% of the price of the game that originally launched 2.5 years ago. In order for a sale today to match a single sale, two-four copies would have had to been sold. So that 3% is pretty kitten ed good.

Without new content it’s even more surprising, since we are in a content drought.

Six million dollars a month is pretty good for a 2.5 year old game, particularly one that’s not had an expansion.

Now, some people in this thread have drawn the conclusion that the expansion path, instead of the cash shop path, is THE way to go, because sales have tapered and the expansion is bringing more cash in…even just the expectation of the expansion.

This is a bad conclusion to draw. No one is saying that the expansion isn’t something you should have in addition to a subscription or cash shop. The expansion is obviously going to bring in more numbers.

However when Guild Wars 1 managed this with just an expansion every year, the entire complexion of the genre was different. Competition was minimal. Guild Wars was the only MMO type game at the time without a sub. There was very little competitive. More to the point, the entire industry has changed back then. Games cost more to make. Shelf space for computer games back then was how they sold. That’s not true anymore. Shelf space for computer games has gotten smaller and smaller over the years. Having that boxed product for a computer game at this point only minimally affects sales.

At the end of the day this game is successful in sea of games that have been less successful. Even Blade and Soul which made more money this quarter, reached that height by releasing the game is a brand new area.

Some people are arguing the game would be MORE successful if it was done differently, but no one knows. And that it’s successful at all in this climate is telling.

Behellagh.1468:

Never said expansion is bad. I’m saying the model that GW used isn’t as effective anymore in an age if digital distribution.

And since the game’s underpinnings are very different than GW2, there was no chance that GW2 could deliver a similar amount of content that each GW campaign did every 6-12 months. We got an 80 level true MMO vs three 20-level hub/instance quests MMO.

Sorry you are all comparing apples to emus here.

digital distribution benefits as much or more from having a new product “in stores” impulse buying has only increased with the advent of digital sales.

some of the most profitable games use gw2 old models, and they make tons of cash. check call of duty 10 dirty OPs underdark.

and i agree, they have, up to this point not been able to make content fast enough to use expansions.
However, i think they have a more concrete plan now, and the content pipeline may get better.

They basically have their new formula
new Zones
mastery for special skills/progression PVE within the zone
new specializations (they should add some proffesions, but they dont wanna) for overall mechanics and new car smell.

with that as a basis, they can have a much more directed and therefor faster content pipeline.

things missing
small group content design/pipeline/accessibility
large group content design (though they say this is in the works)
more new car smell(new charachter animations, new functionalities, etc)

Vayne.8563:

As I see it, there are two things a lot of people here seem to be ignoring. Yes, the uptrend in sales over last quarter is marginal, but last quarter was also the Christmas season which means beating it in the next quarter can be misleading. Most games don’t beat the Christmas quarter at all, because ‘tis the season’.

And let’s not forget, a lot of the sales we’ve seen are at 25% of the price of the game that originally launched 2.5 years ago. In order for a sale today to match a single sale, two-four copies would have had to been sold. So that 3% is pretty kitten ed good.

Without new content it’s even more surprising, since we are in a content drought.

Six million dollars a month is pretty good for a 2.5 year old game, particularly one that’s not had an expansion.

Now, some people in this thread have drawn the conclusion that the expansion path, instead of the cash shop path, is THE way to go, because sales have tapered and the expansion is bringing more cash in…even just the expectation of the expansion.

This is a bad conclusion to draw. No one is saying that the expansion isn’t something you should have in addition to a subscription or cash shop. The expansion is obviously going to bring in more numbers.

However when Guild Wars 1 managed this with just an expansion every year, the entire complexion of the genre was different. Competition was minimal. Guild Wars was the only MMO type game at the time without a sub. There was very little competitive. More to the point, the entire industry has changed back then. Games cost more to make. Shelf space for computer games back then was how they sold. That’s not true anymore. Shelf space for computer games has gotten smaller and smaller over the years. Having that boxed product for a computer game at this point only minimally affects sales.

At the end of the day this game is successful in sea of games that have been less successful. Even Blade and Soul which made more money this quarter, reached that height by releasing the game is a brand new area.

Some people are arguing the game would be MORE successful if it was done differently, but no one knows. And that it’s successful at all in this climate is telling.

the last xmas quarter was a record low, i would hope they could outperform that.

Behellagh.1468:

Devata.6589:

“How can you say that with any authority? There never was a previous model and if you are talking GW” We where talking about the GW1 model applied to GW2 based on the numbers. Explained in this comment: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/NCSOFT-1Q-2015-Results/first#post5061015

It was an ongoing discussion I had with Kill, but because he did not quote me I can understand how it’s a little confusing.

“The only thing GW had was a relatively steady stream of income during it’s first 3 years” So pretty much for it’s real life-spawn. After those 3 years the focus shifted to GW2. Anyway, it’s that steady income I talked about. A year (and two years) after release GW1 made about as much money as it did on release while GW2 had dropped a lot already. So when applied it to GW2 (and if it would work the same) you would have had made more money.

“that’s because it was from a time when PC games on shelves were still a thing” Not sure how you come to the conclusion that because people now also buy a lot of games online that would have any effect on this.

“something that having a new box release every year or so helped, as well as stoking sales of the previous boxes.” So what you are trying to say is that because people buy the game online this would not be true anymore? You do understand these results posted here very much suggest they do. Also you do not explain why it would not work anymore.

“GW2 came out at a time when non-Sims, non-Blizzard PC games had maybe 6 linear feet of shelf space and BestBuy, WalMart and Target? Maybe one side of a small mid floor display at GameStop to hold all unsold PC games from the last 5 years?” So.. what is your point? Many PC gamers buy there games online.. yeah.. fine. How does that change anything about how expansions increase sale and how yearly expansion might work for a more steady income overall? Missing the correlation here.

The point is that before the shift to digital purchasing, it was essentially free advertising having a box on the shelf. GW’s “new” campaigns kept the brand up in front of eyes of potential customers looking for a new game to buy. A new “expansion”, that campaigns weren’t really, drives sales of the original.

The loss of this vector of getting eyes on product is a big hit in terms of driving purchases. Since shelve space is a limited commodity, what was on the shelves were a mix of what’s new and what’s popular. It’s curated, yes by upfront money from distributors but you didn’t have a near unless number of games to choose from via digital download. Sure Steam recently added curated selections and try to guess your preferences and show you similar titles but that doesn’t replace walking down an aisle of PC games and having an interesting title or box art catch you eye. Or having a chunk of shelf space with a large number of the same title facing you, universal sign of “I’m new”.

So how many GW players started with a later campaign and back filled? So instead of their 1st title being on display for only a few months you have each campaign keeping the brand “Guild Wars” front and center for two years. Then you had the combo box sets appearing for several more years. All of that is free advertising of the brand. All of that drive player sales.

What we have now are a few shelves in stores that use to have multiple aisles for PC gaming. A potential player has to come here to buy the game since it’s not on Steam or any other PC digital distributor of games. GameStop didn’t even carry the box but sold you a serial number for download. Sure you can buy it from Amazon like everything else but again you have to be looking for the game first. Once off the shelve it’s out of sight out of mind.

This is a different era for selling PC games. What helped sales with GW doesn’t exist anymore. You aren’t getting impulse buyers at full price. You aren’t keeping a brand in front of people for years every time they visit the store. Therefore popping out an expansion every 6 to 12 months may work well for those already playing but it won’t drive new people to the game. Not the same way as before.

BTW I am the OP of this thread.

Fact that there are less games on the shelves does not mean GW2’s expansion can’t be? Besides, you really think shelves are the only place where people see new games? Shelves are generally not the place where people learn about new games.

Obtena.7952:

Devata.6589:

You are right, these numbers do not say anything about grind, or precursors or mounds. But they do say something about expansions.

This is how it start man. … <expansions, not LS> AMIRITE?!! I hope everyone’s padding is refreshed on their armchairs.

Well, not so much not ls. But to say expansion would work better then LS I would not need these numbers. As you know I campaign for expansion for a long time.

Behellagh.1468:

Never said expansion is bad. I’m saying the model that GW used isn’t as effective anymore in an age if digital distribution.

And since the game’s underpinnings are very different than GW2, there was no chance that GW2 could deliver a similar amount of content that each GW campaign did every 6-12 months. We got an 80 level true MMO vs three 20-level hub/instance quests MMO.

Sorry you are all comparing apples to emus here.

I don’t think HoT will manage to raise sales to where it was at release simply because Anet already did some irreversible damage. Still I think yearly expansions would make for a better income even if it’s not able to match GW1’s rate (so compared to original sales). The simply fact that sales increase simply by the announcement supports that idea.. and there is no HoT on any shelve yet. So those shelves aren’t as important as you think.

About them not being able to make the content that fast.. It looks like HoT is only really in development for a year now.

Vayne.8563:

As I see it, there are two things a lot of people here seem to be ignoring. Yes, the uptrend in sales over last quarter is marginal, but last quarter was also the Christmas season which means beating it in the next quarter can be misleading. Most games don’t beat the Christmas quarter at all, because ‘tis the season’.

And let’s not forget, a lot of the sales we’ve seen are at 25% of the price of the game that originally launched 2.5 years ago. In order for a sale today to match a single sale, two-four copies would have had to been sold. So that 3% is pretty kitten ed good.

Without new content it’s even more surprising, since we are in a content drought.

Six million dollars a month is pretty good for a 2.5 year old game, particularly one that’s not had an expansion.

Now, some people in this thread have drawn the conclusion that the expansion path, instead of the cash shop path, is THE way to go, because sales have tapered and the expansion is bringing more cash in…even just the expectation of the expansion.

This is a bad conclusion to draw. No one is saying that the expansion isn’t something you should have in addition to a subscription or cash shop. The expansion is obviously going to bring in more numbers.

However when Guild Wars 1 managed this with just an expansion every year, the entire complexion of the genre was different. Competition was minimal. Guild Wars was the only MMO type game at the time without a sub. There was very little competitive. More to the point, the entire industry has changed back then. Games cost more to make. Shelf space for computer games back then was how they sold. That’s not true anymore. Shelf space for computer games has gotten smaller and smaller over the years. Having that boxed product for a computer game at this point only minimally affects sales.

At the end of the day this game is successful in sea of games that have been less successful. Even Blade and Soul which made more money this quarter, reached that height by releasing the game is a brand new area.

Some people are arguing the game would be MORE successful if it was done differently, but no one knows. And that it’s successful at all in this climate is telling.

“This is a bad conclusion to draw. No one is saying that the expansion isn’t something you should have in addition to a subscription or cash shop. The expansion is obviously going to bring in more numbers.”

You don´t really explain why it´s a bad conclusion. You talk about that we life in a different time (what you always say when we talk about the expansion approach) but how does that change anything to these numbers? Sales where going down and in Q1 (in fact a bad quarter in general) income manage to get up while the only big thing in the land of GW2 was the announcement of HoT.

You want GW2 to be successful for many years to come, maybe just accept that expansions work.

Still, yearly expansions are not going to cut it. I agree on that. If HoT is a bad expansion people get bored with soon again the next expansion would sell bad and GW2 will still be going to decline. An expansion is only able to get some people back and the first expansion will get many back that got bored with the game but are willing to give it a second try. Not many people going to give it a third or forth try.

So all this really seems to proof is that the model itself can work, not that the game can work.

As you know I see the way cosmetics are a grind (mainly because of the cash-shop and the way rewarding works (what I blame on the focus of the cash-shop) as the main problem of GW2 and one of the bigger reasons why those people coming back, did leave in the first. Now thats a discussion for another thread. But at least this seems to proof the expansion model can work, and even better then the cash-shop model. Now lets hope Anet will be able to make HoT able to hold the people that did leave in the first place because if they get bored again I don’t think many will be coming back for the second expansion, if there even will be a second expansion, and sales of GW2 will be back to the point of Q4 2014.

Only time can tell but while I know this sounds arrogant (I don’t care) the numbers only seem to suggest what I have been saying all along about the expansion model.

Devata.6589:

Fact that there are less games on the shelves does not mean GW2’s expansion can’t be? Besides, you really think shelves are the only place where people see new games? Shelves are generally not the place where people learn about new games.

Point being missed.

GW’s model sold as well as it did because there was a version of the game on shelves for years. The first three were each a stand alone game and not a true expansion. That means someone could buy the third one and like it enough to go back and buy the other two. Stores had the space to keep a game that came out 6 months ago on the shelf. With the current tiny amount of space stores currently devote to PC games that aren’t Sims or Blizzard means older games don’t get restocked after they sell out for as long as they use to.

So today if GW came out the first campaign wouldn’t still be on the shelf when the 2nd came out, or the 2nd when the 3rd came out. You don’t get the advantage of someone seeing the series. Some may not want to buy the 3rd if they can’t buy the 1st. Sort of like a book series, who wants to start at book 3. Or some may wrongly assume the later campaigns were expansions and you needed the original which isn’t on the shelf. You lose those sales.

Selling games is a lot like movies. You make the bulk of your sales during the first month or two and then you have a long tail in terms of sales income. So the fact GW2 is making more income every quarter than GW with the single sale and gem shop than spike/tail every six to twelve months works. And that’s important because ANet would not have been able to do what they did with GW for GW2 in getting enough content for a paid expansion before they ran into a cash flow crunch.

So do you think they were just stupid or something? Don’t you think they crunched the numbers at what they did with GW and abandoned it on a whim? No they couldn’t see a way that method would lead to as much money as a cash shop would over time. And so far they’ve been right. If they thought they could pull in another $100-200 million every 12-18 months don’t you think that would be their plan from the start?