Guild Wars 2

maddoctor.2738:

Again a thread about expansions… haven’t you heard? They don’t reveal any information about upcoming releases so we will get the expansion announcement a week before it’s released :P

Anet: “GW2 expansion coming next week!”
Players: “Wait what?”

I personally would not mind in the least if they did this.

Ashen.2907:

scerevisiae.1972:

60k is a grad programmer fresh out of uni. Snr devs, dev mgrs, architects etc will be well clear of 100. In any case, 100k is a realistic mean salary figure, once on-costs and insurances are taken into account.

The average game dev salary for the region where ANet is located is between 70k and 80k. The cost to employ is between 1.2 and 1.3 x base salary. The 100k estimate mentioned is a bit high but is significantly closer to normal than the 60k mentioned as a counter argument.

http://www.salarylist.com/company/ArenaNet-Salary.htm
Figures are relatively old (2012 – likely around the release date), so I’d deduct some K’s to match the current trend.

P.S. There’s even a direct phone line for the HQ on the right side of the page…would be most interesting to see, if the number is actually legit.

Where is list of North Korea’s most popular mmorpgs?

Junkpile.7439:

Where is list of North Korea’s most popular mmorpgs?

don’t think they are allowed to play mmorpgs

anet pays lower than average for the area according to glass door posts. average 40k per designer and 80k per programmer. no idea what other staff get paid, but most likely the higher ups get paid in the millions. They also have general overhead costs, marketing costs and equipment costs. They are doing alright, but not great.

GW2 is already profitable, it will never be a flop, overall. But that is based on the past, when they look at current revenue, and reinvestment into the GW2 product, people will look at how much is this making now, and is it worth money to try to invest in the product, or would it be better spent putting the company on a new product.
GW2 was so far, most effecient upon release. where they made in the first two quarters, more than they made in the second year.
(2012 q3-4 compared to entire 2013+2014 q1 or 165000mk > 148,000mk)

this basically implies, they should probaby have stuck to a b2p game style, with semi yearly expansions, and modest cash shop offerings. they would likely have had more return buyers, even though they would have had a greater drop off for the next 2-3 quarters before the expansion hits, pre expansion hype may even have made it a drop off for only 1-2 quarters

hindsight is 20/20 and it looks pretty clearly like the a yearly expansion of meaty well honed proportions would likely have made them more money, and satisfied many people.

Tweaks to the game have not retained, nor expanded playerbase/profits.
They now are operating at earnings level thats between blade and soul and Wildstar. Will gw2 die? probably not, but if it continues on this path, you can expect very small reinvestment and probably budget cuts.
UNLESS, the people in charge think that this trend is about to be reversed by some actions/plans.

Which is possible. A really good expansion hype complete with previews of some of the best new systems/features they are adding would probably do wonders.
An insanely strong LS (complete with heavy features, not just story could also do it)

essentially they need a real strong showing of new content, or previews of content coming and a lot better PR than they have been getting recently.

but make no mistake, they are currently on the lower end of OK for what the title expectations are. aion was making 36,000mk+ 3 years after release, and now, 5 years after release, 32,000mk.
no, gw2 is not doing well as compared to what the company’s other top games have been doing, in the long term.

If it were on the “lower end of OK” why didn’t they lose a single one during the recent lay-offs?

Seeing as lower end of OK would suggest it is not doing well enough and as such it would make sense to lay-off a bunch of people, which very clearly didn’t happen (despite happening to all the other western companies of NCSoft.)

lordkrall.7241:

If it were on the “lower end of OK” why didn’t they lose a single one during the recent lay-offs?

Seeing as lower end of OK would suggest it is not doing well enough and as such it would make sense to lay-off a bunch of people, which very clearly didn’t happen (despite happening to all the other western companies of NCSoft.)

gw2 has been coasting on a huge release for a long time. The fact that other western projects failed is not a bonus. It would imply they may be better off not publishing in the west. If my home brew games are making me more money, with less costs/risks why should i invest overseas?

also, i would say this is the turning point, up till now, i would personally be taking more of a wait and see approach, but now? the game with 165kmw in 2 quarters has dropped off to the point its earnings are only 19kmw in a quarter. Aion many consider a flop, but fact remains, 3 -5 years into its development, it doesnt seem to go below 20kmw and has hills and valleys up to 30kmw. It also has a smaller staff.

but now, with consistent downward earnings, averaging 5-10% per quarter, (which would put it at 17 mill next quarter if this trend continues, having probably reached saturation on new box sales.

nah this is not good. Swtor made 165million last year, compared to gw2 reporting 90million US in the last 4 quarters, FFXI which is supposedly nearing 3 million players, would be pulling 3×15million per month, or 45 mill. even if its inaccurate and they only have 2 mill, thats still 30 mil per month, or 120 mil a year, not counting box sales.

for comparison, 19krm translates to roughly 17 million. So yeah, they are doing lower side of OK right now.

Like i said though this isnt the end of the world, as long as they turn the trend around, by some means, its no big deal to have one or two lukewarm quarters. The key thing people are looking to see, is what is arenanets bottom (earnings) going to be?

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Just look at the quarterly reports corresponding to the release of each of the major titles over the past 2 years and you will see a dip in profit for GW2 that never recovers.

In particular look for:

WoW expansions
Wildstar
ESO
Archage
FF some large number

Now correlate that with the ‘I just recently returned to GW2’ threads on Reddit / GW2 forum that occur 2-3 months after those other MMO launches…

Speaks volumes of the quality of GW2 over its peers in the MMO market – GW2 has a great platform and Anet should see the golden opportunity they have to further strengthen their position with a great xpac annoucement to reel in other players who left.

Yargesh.4965:

maddoctor.2738:

Again a thread about expansions… haven’t you heard? They don’t reveal any information about upcoming releases so we will get the expansion announcement a week before it’s released :P

Anet: “GW2 expansion coming next week!”
Players: “Wait what?”

I personally would not mind in the least if they did this.

“Nintendo style.” Anet announced GW2 five years before it was released… we’ll get the expansion announcement five months (or five weeks) before it’s released. :p

Jgr.8765:

Yargesh.4965:

maddoctor.2738:

Again a thread about expansions… haven’t you heard? They don’t reveal any information about upcoming releases so we will get the expansion announcement a week before it’s released :P

Anet: “GW2 expansion coming next week!”
Players: “Wait what?”

I personally would not mind in the least if they did this.

“Nintendo style.” Anet announced GW2 five years before it was released… we’ll get the expansion announcement five months (or five weeks) before it’s released. :p

it really would be horrible if they did do that. that would mean they are going to release a very poorly marketed expansion, also not taking advantage of the anticipation to fuel sales/player numbers leading up to said expansion.

I suppose in theory one might get some sort of viral surprise reaction, but i doubt it can make up for the aforementioned losses of oppourtunity

Bloodstealer.5978:

Vayne.8563:

phys.7689:

Behellagh.1468:

phys.7689:

Vayne.8563:

So according to this report, Guild Wars 2 is making $5,968,222 per month…roughly anyway.

Seems pretty good for a two year old game without an expansion…to me anyway.

~SNIP ~

~SNIP~

~SNIP~

The second you said Guild Wars 2 would be right next to Wildstar, a game that didn’t make six months before they laid off people and canceled their holiday updates, you lost any credibility.

Even if Guild Wars 2 spiraled down now (and there’s no real sign of that) it’s far more successful than Wildstar was. Comparing the two on any level can’t be anything but disingenuous.

It’s like saying that if the game hasn’t been moderately successful for the last couple of years, it would have been the same as a failure. Terrible comparison.

All MMO’s reduce their staffing a short whiles after launch.. staffing levels through development are always larger prior to launch.. after launch many positions are simply suplus requirments and are most likely contractually designed to be terminated at that point.. nothing new to report here I am afraid.

Focus more on the actual relevance of the report not what you surmise it to be Vayne. Face facts qtr on qtr there is a downward trend to GW2, some of which coincides at points with other launches that have so say now bombed.. so where is the upspike in players coming back to GW2 that should theoretically affect future earning … unless of course they are coming back but more leave .. not the kind of balance I would want in my own businesses finances.
I am not saying GW2 is doomed, in fact I agree with you I don’t think it is (yet) in that sense as all MMO’s see drop offs, plateauing and upsurge’s but facts remain GW2 appears to be struggling to curb the decline albeit it’s still generating a decent amount of money (profit.. not known) in its launch market… does this however represent the players left are being generous shoppers or has the game been pushing more to the cash shop of late to maybe stretch out some figures running up to the latest report… we all are guessing in part but using what we can draw from the game, the press, the players and the results, but the fact remains GW2 has had a poorer than expected year, lets hope the next Q on Q period can ignite the upsurge in both content quality and player interest like it did this time last year, but with a view to maintaining it going forward because 2 years still doesn’t make the game a success.

I am hoping they have content plans at least a year in advance of this and are working hard to seeing such plans come to fruition (maybe in the form of traditional expansion or maybe something else), but it needs something because even though these figures show a decent generating pull, downward trends cant really be expected to keep pulling those numbers and there is only so much shopping players will do until even the most loyal either run out of coin or simply get fed up with it and look elsewhere.

Focus on facts, not speculation.

Fact…NCsoft West and Wildstar suffered a layoff of people. Anet didn’t. That’s a fact.

You keep talking about the business going down or comparing it to failed games. If that’s the case why was Anet unaffected by layoffs.

I worked in the publishing industry. In almost any creative field you expect lower sales as time goes on. That’s normal for the industry I worked in. This isn’t some theory I’m spouting off the top of my head. It’s absolutely normal for games to sell less as time goes on and games that don’t are the rarest of exceptions.

So I’m not even sure what you’re on about.

No need to force layoffs when 1) people are leaving on their own, and 2) losses can be offset, to an extent, by cutting salaries (and benefits) at the mid/lower end of the staff.

phys.7689:

lordkrall.7241:

If it were on the “lower end of OK” why didn’t they lose a single one during the recent lay-offs?

Seeing as lower end of OK would suggest it is not doing well enough and as such it would make sense to lay-off a bunch of people, which very clearly didn’t happen (despite happening to all the other western companies of NCSoft.)

gw2 has been coasting on a huge release for a long time. The fact that other western projects failed is not a bonus. It would imply they may be better off not publishing in the west. If my home brew games are making me more money, with less costs/risks why should i invest overseas?

also, i would say this is the turning point, up till now, i would personally be taking more of a wait and see approach, but now? the game with 165kmw in 2 quarters has dropped off to the point its earnings are only 19kmw in a quarter. Aion many consider a flop, but fact remains, 3 -5 years into its development, it doesnt seem to go below 20kmw and has hills and valleys up to 30kmw. It also has a smaller staff.

but now, with consistent downward earnings, averaging 5-10% per quarter, (which would put it at 17 mill next quarter if this trend continues, having probably reached saturation on new box sales.

nah this is not good. Swtor made 165million last year, compared to gw2 reporting 90million US in the last 4 quarters, FFXI which is supposedly nearing 3 million players, would be pulling 3×15million per month, or 45 mill. even if its inaccurate and they only have 2 mill, thats still 30 mil per month, or 120 mil a year, not counting box sales.

for comparison, 19krm translates to roughly 17 million. So yeah, they are doing lower side of OK right now.

Like i said though this isnt the end of the world, as long as they turn the trend around, by some means, its no big deal to have one or two lukewarm quarters. The key thing people are looking to see, is what is arenanets bottom (earnings) going to be?

“Which would put it at 17 mill next quarter if this trend continues.” Q4 tents to be higher. So lets say 16 mill Q1. If things don’t change. What would put it at the same place as the failed Wildstar is now. Of course that does not mean GW2 would be failed as it took GW2 2,5 years to get there but it does show that they need to change things or it will end up dead.

Compare this to GW1 where on average every expansion did bring in about the same amount of money as the original sale. They would have earned so much more money if they only would have done that. Well at least they can’t say I did not warn them.

phys.7689:

Jgr.8765:

Yargesh.4965:

maddoctor.2738:

Again a thread about expansions… haven’t you heard? They don’t reveal any information about upcoming releases so we will get the expansion announcement a week before it’s released :P

Anet: “GW2 expansion coming next week!”
Players: “Wait what?”

I personally would not mind in the least if they did this.

“Nintendo style.” Anet announced GW2 five years before it was released… we’ll get the expansion announcement five months (or five weeks) before it’s released. :p

it really would be horrible if they did do that. that would mean they are going to release a very poorly marketed expansion, also not taking advantage of the anticipation to fuel sales/player numbers leading up to said expansion.

I suppose in theory one might get some sort of viral surprise reaction, but i doubt it can make up for the aforementioned losses of oppourtunity

5 months is enough for this, after a while the hype always goes away. A few years upfront is just annoying and old fashioned.

aspirine.6852:

phys.7689:

Jgr.8765:

Yargesh.4965:

maddoctor.2738:

Again a thread about expansions… haven’t you heard? They don’t reveal any information about upcoming releases so we will get the expansion announcement a week before it’s released :P

Anet: “GW2 expansion coming next week!”
Players: “Wait what?”

I personally would not mind in the least if they did this.

“Nintendo style.” Anet announced GW2 five years before it was released… we’ll get the expansion announcement five months (or five weeks) before it’s released. :p

it really would be horrible if they did do that. that would mean they are going to release a very poorly marketed expansion, also not taking advantage of the anticipation to fuel sales/player numbers leading up to said expansion.

I suppose in theory one might get some sort of viral surprise reaction, but i doubt it can make up for the aforementioned losses of oppourtunity

5 months is enough for this, after a while the hype always goes away. A few years upfront is just annoying and old fashioned.

yes

But there is a difference between hyping things up too soon, and just letting players know that they are actually working on something, e.g. giving us something to look forward to.

I don’t care about details like location, theme, etc. Just “hey, we are working on an expansion, with new zones, races, bosses, and dungeons.” or whatever. Especially with the overwhelmingly negative attitude players have towards the game, something like this would soothe a lot of misgivings.

I’m not so sure about that. Even one sentence announcing something in the past has been labeled as ‘over-hyping’. I can’t imagine the fall-out over something like information about a possible expansion.

It would either be considered ‘hype’ or ‘broken promises’…one or the other. =/

Yet in all this talk no mention of exchange rate …the strengthening of the won has weakened profits when returned to korea for all korean companies .If they report a 6 per cent fall in income from a mainly english game it would mean that sales are actually increasing in numbers as the won variation is about 13 percent .
The opposite of this was Toyotas 27 percent increase in income with no extra sales due to the weakening of the yen .

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

I’m not so sure about that. Even one sentence announcing something in the past has been labeled as ‘over-hyping’. I can’t imagine the fall-out over something like information about a possible expansion.

It would either be considered ‘hype’ or ‘broken promises’…one or the other. =/

I started a reply with my thoughts on this, but made it into a topic instead:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Is-it-time-for-a-new-manifesto

Dondarrion.2748:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Just look at the quarterly reports corresponding to the release of each of the major titles over the past 2 years and you will see a dip in profit for GW2 that never recovers.

In particular look for:

WoW expansions
Wildstar
ESO
Archage
FF some large number

Now correlate that with the ‘I just recently returned to GW2’ threads on Reddit / GW2 forum that occur 2-3 months after those other MMO launches…

Speaks volumes of the quality of GW2 over its peers in the MMO market – GW2 has a great platform and Anet should see the golden opportunity they have to further strengthen their position with a great xpac annoucement to reel in other players who left.

A few forum posts is just that I am afraid.. a few forum posts.
Sure some come and go between titles, that’s the beauty of the GW2 model.. but if the number leaving outways the number joining/coming back each quarter then it might correlate something a little less desirable.. and the figures they have put out there seem to suggest that might be the issue.
A cash shop can help spike the figures over the short term but it needs something a little more than fluff items in a shop window to keep the game above the OK line, it needs something a little more substantial to drive some impetus back into the game and I hope it does have that in its armoury because I agree with you the game has a decent enough platform and past experience to draw on in keeping a stellar title fresh and interesting..

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

But as we saw with AION’s numbers this quarter, which have been poor since B&S came out in Korea implying players jumped from AION to B&S, a subscription game (AION still is in Korea) can bounce back.

@Middzz – average exchange rate for 3Q was 1023.19 KrW per USD, 2Q was 1027.78 (Oanda historical data, average bid for each quarter). That’s less than 1/2 of one percent.

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

But as we saw with AION’s numbers this quarter, which have been poor since B&S came out in Korea implying players jumped from AION to B&S, a subscription game (AION still is in Korea) can bounce back.

@Middzz – average exchange rate for 3Q was 1023.19 KrW per USD, 2Q was 1027.78 (Oanda historical data, average bid for each quarter). That’s less than 1/2 of one percent.

it is true wildstar caught a really bad reputation for no reason.

Although a lot of gamers were talking about it, it appears the hype was never real. They also didnt start out with an insane starting amount of players, and they retained a decent amount of those, to be reporting 14 million earnings (15 a month means they have about a 200k-300k) because some of that is still box sales. This for a start up MMO with no established franchise or liscence (gw WoW ffxi SWTOR)

that said, this is if it stabilizes, the worry is probably that it will continue to go down.

That said, expectations matter. Doesnt always make sense, but you see the same thing in music. If beyonce makes 600 thousand, her album is a flop. If joe shmoe makes 500 thousand, hes a rising star

*edit.
whoops careless mistake, a quarter is 3 months.

wildstar is looking at about 300k players most likely.

kitten thats interesting, subscription probably isnt as dead as people think based on this

i think buy2play could be just as big if you can put out good expansions at decent clip.(12-16 months)

interesting

An official word on upcoming content would really help clear things up.

Middzz.1490:

Yet in all this talk no mention of exchange rate …the strengthening of the won has weakened profits when returned to korea for all korean companies .If they report a 6 per cent fall in income from a mainly english game it would mean that sales are actually increasing in numbers as the won variation is about 13 percent .
The opposite of this was Toyotas 27 percent increase in income with no extra sales due to the weakening of the yen .

This is a really good observation that needs to be highlighted. The worrisome number here is not QoQ, but the 20% drop YoY. And that drop is definitely attributable in part to exchange rate changes. When you look at that specific period compared, it’s a huge, huge difference. Would also explain at least in part why the two primarily Korean games didn’t have much change at all and actually made serious gains.

Also worth remembering that this was a time during which Guild Wars 2 was on sale for an extended period of time. The idea being to get less short-term revenue in the hopes of building the player base and future gem sales. And really, to build player base for an upcoming expansion.

All of this is complete speculation and for all we know, there was actually some degree of panic at Arenanet that went well beyond the Great Player Revolt of September 2014. Maybe these numbers are a huge worry and surprising. But I don’t see any loss of confidence, and I’m betting the reason is that there IS, in fact, an expansion coming sooner rather than later. There are so many signs pointing towards one, and I haven’t seen anything at all that contradicts this theory.

Xillllix.3485:

An official word on upcoming content would really help clear things up.

Upcoming content on November 18th:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/tangled-paths-begins-november-18/

Xillllix.3485:

An official word on upcoming content would really help clear things up.

Well except for their policy of not saying anything until it’s too late to change direction.

Pretty much every earnings report weve seen from NCSoft since day one has mentioned the word “expansion” in relation to GW2.

I really dont think they mean it in the sense many believe – that is, a traditional expansion like those we see in other games. I wouldn’t read too much into one line from the earnings report.

Anet would have to make some really hard decisions if they ever decided to develop an official expansion. They’ve touted their aggressive and free update business model to a point where an expansion doesnt really make sense unless theyve changed their entire approach to the game.

The big question is, where would they draw the line between what could be in an expansion and what could be trickled out in bi-weekly updates. I still have faith they can make the free update model work – in ways that both bring in new customers and end up giving us a full expansion worth of content in more timely fashions.

3Q14 exchange rate – 1023.19 KrW per 1 USD – $19.24 million USD
3Q13 exchange rate – 1106.16 KrW per 1 USD – $22.13 million USD

This make the drop is dollars only 13.1% instead of 19.6% in KrW.

KarlaGrey.5903:

No need to force layoffs when 1) people are leaving on their own, and 2) losses can be offset, to an extent, by cutting salaries (and benefits) at the mid/lower end of the staff.

So tell me. How many people have left? And how does that compare to normal attrition of any company?

I’m thinking that the attrition rate is relatively normal for a company of Anet’s size. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

nice article (tinfoilhattime)
http://www.tentonhammer.com/editorial/are-arenanet-working-guild-wars-2-expansion

maddoctor.2738:

Again a thread about expansions… haven’t you heard? They don’t reveal any information about upcoming releases so we will get the expansion announcement a week before it’s released :P

Anet: “GW2 expansion coming next week!”
Players: “Wait what?”

The way it should be. I don’t need the hype just quality so take your time and do it right. I like the mentality that they had when GW2 was in development. It will be out when its ready. +1

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

But as we saw with AION’s numbers this quarter, which have been poor since B&S came out in Korea implying players jumped from AION to B&S, a subscription game (AION still is in Korea) can bounce back.

@Middzz – average exchange rate for 3Q was 1023.19 KrW per USD, 2Q was 1027.78 (Oanda historical data, average bid for each quarter). That’s less than 1/2 of one percent.

Please 0.5 percent !!!!!…http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=KRW

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

Isn’t failing expectations what you can consider failing? They already had to send people home.

It’s not like the game hat to be shut down or anything but it did not preform like it should and I think you can say thats failing.

Middzz.1490:

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

But as we saw with AION’s numbers this quarter, which have been poor since B&S came out in Korea implying players jumped from AION to B&S, a subscription game (AION still is in Korea) can bounce back.

@Middzz – average exchange rate for 3Q was 1023.19 KrW per USD, 2Q was 1027.78 (Oanda historical data, average bid for each quarter). That’s less than 1/2 of one percent.

Please 0.5 percent !!!!!…http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=KRW

Not sure what you are trying to show here? I listed my sources. April 1, 2014 to June 30, 2014 (2nd quarter) the average bid during that time was 1027.78 per dollar and from July 1, 2014 to September 30, 2014 (3rd quarter) the average bid was 1023.19. That’s less than 0.5 percent.

The range during those periods were 1000.40-1059.77 for 2nd quarter and 995.917-1046.24 for 3rd quarter. Then ending values were 1013.17 for 2nd quarter and 1046.24 for 3rd quarter. In that case it’s 3.16%. But I chose the numerical average of the daily exchange rate for the entire quarter, each quarter to use to convert the quarterly numbers into dollars. But sure lets use the end of quarter rates.

2Q14 – 21,506 million KrW – $21.226 million USD
3Q14 – 19,686 million KrW – $18.816 million USD

Down 11.354% QoQ in USD. Happy now Mister Doom and Gloom.

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

Isn’t failing expectations what you can consider failing? They already had to send people home.

It’s not like the game hat to be shut down or anything but it did not preform like it should and I think you can say thats failing.

How can you even make comment on the policy of sending people home.. you know nothing of the circumstance, you know nothing of the internal make up of the teams, you nothing of the internal/external demands/requirements of the game after launch and you certainly have no knowledge of the individual contractual tie ups .. bottom line – you know nothing.
Take a look at any MMO through its development process then take a look 6 months after launch.. I will hazard a big guess every single one of them “sends people home” as you so delicately put it, but that is nothing new even for stellar performing MMO’s.
WHY? – Because during development, just like many other products out there, there is a requirement to get it done, meet shifting deadlines, larger initial budgeting, need for specialist elements etc etc… once all that is done and the product launches, many of those positions are no longer required and were likely always going to become surplus to requirement at that point, hence contracts are tied in to that effect… just because ‘X’ MMO sheds people at that point it does not necessarily mean its a pre-cursor for doom.. in fact what is also then common is a shuffling of internal responsibilities, new positions get recruited in to meet the changes of the business model as it moves from initial concept/development to live generation/evolution, sales and support.

To note though I wouldn’t be at all surprised if ANET’s business model had the same things forecasted to happen at some point after launch as well.

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

Isn’t failing expectations what you can consider failing? They already had to send people home.

It’s not like the game hat to be shut down or anything but it did not preform like it should and I think you can say thats failing.

It’s like declaring a movie a flop because it’s opening weekend didn’t live up to the hype or set a new record. I didn’t say it was wildly successful, just not a flaming pile of dren.

There are almost always layoffs within six months of launch. Build up during the last year of development and then transitioning to a smaller staff to push out content updates. Go to Massively and search for layoffs.

Bloodstealer.5978:

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

Isn’t failing expectations what you can consider failing? They already had to send people home.

It’s not like the game hat to be shut down or anything but it did not preform like it should and I think you can say thats failing.

How can you even make comment on the policy of sending people home.. you know nothing of the circumstance, you know nothing of the internal make up of the teams, you nothing of the internal/external demands/requirements of the game after launch and you certainly have no knowledge of the individual contractual tie ups .. bottom line – you know nothing.
Take a look at any MMO through its development process then take a look 6 months after launch.. I will hazard a big guess every single one of them “sends people home” as you so delicately put it, but that is nothing new even for stellar performing MMO’s.
WHY? – Because during development, just like many other products out there, there is a requirement to get it done, meet shifting deadlines, larger initial budgeting, need for specialist elements etc etc… once all that is done and the product launches, many of those positions are no longer required and were likely always going to become surplus to requirement at that point, hence contracts are tied in to that effect… just because ‘X’ MMO sheds people at that point it does not necessarily mean its a pre-cursor for doom.. in fact what is also then common is a shuffling of internal responsibilities, new positions get recruited in to meet the changes of the business model as it moves from initial concept/development to live generation/evolution, sales and support.

To note though I wouldn’t be at all surprised if ANET’s business model had the same things forecasted to happen at some point after launch as well.

Oke, I know nothing and Wildstar is doing great! No problems there, everything go’s as planned and they got rid of people because they where only needed up until release.

Also the fact that Carbine was especially hard-hit by the layoffs has nothing to do with the fact that the game did not meat expectations because it did.

Better?

Behellagh.1468:

Devata.6589:

Behellagh.1468:

Wildstar hasn’t failed other than expectations and hype. It’s first full quarter numbers are still better than any of NCSOFT’s previous subscription MMOs marketed only in NA/EU.

Isn’t failing expectations what you can consider failing? They already had to send people home.

It’s not like the game hat to be shut down or anything but it did not preform like it should and I think you can say thats failing.

It’s like declaring a movie a flop because it’s opening weekend didn’t live up to the hype or set a new record. I didn’t say it was wildly successful, just not a flaming pile of dren.

There are almost always layoffs within six months of launch. Build up during the last year of development and then transitioning to a smaller staff to push out content updates. Go to Massively and search for layoffs.

Sure but It was kinda high. And I do think that a movie is a flop when it does not meet it’s expectations yes. That might not be in it’s opening weekend but usually the first few weeks is the highest and after that it usually only go’s down. So the openings-weekend is very important for sure.

What you would really want to know are the developing cost, running cost and netto profit to get a better idea but if the newest game get’s the lowest income (except of one) of all the other games and then already in it’s second quarter then I would indeed think you can consider it a fail.

Again not in a sense that the game is completely dead and the server will shut down, but from a financial viewpoint. I’m sure they expected much more from it even if they manage to still make some money on it.

That’s because you probably don’t remember the time a movie could run for a season in a first run theater as oppose the 4-6 weeks today. Star Wars in 77 didn’t start taking in a huge amount of money for the time until weeks 5-13. By 1989 after the notion of block busters and tent pole movies became the way it reverted more toward i]what we see today but Batman lasted 11 weeks in first run theaters.

The current feeling of failure is due to how movie ticket income is split between the theater and studio. Usually the first two weeks it’s now 10/90 between theater and studio. So it’s in the studio’s interest that the opening week or two is huge because after that the split becomes fairer for theaters. Their is a reason a liter of soda is $5 and a couple of cups of popped popcorn is $6.

So now even the public believes that if the opening weekend is poor that the movie isn’t worth seeing. It has become a self-fulling prophecy.

That’s why I don’t dismiss only after one full quarter’s of income. Let’s see where that game is in a year. They may be able to turn it around but I would still think that they will have to be forced into F2P/Hybrid simply because in NA/EU, that’s the income model players are willing to support. There is only room for one game with a subscription and we know which one that is.

Behellagh.1468:

That’s because you probably don’t remember the time a movie could run for a season in a first run theater as oppose the 4-6 weeks today. Star Wars in 77 didn’t start taking in a huge amount of money for the time until weeks 5-13. By 1989 after the notion of block busters and tent pole movies became the way it reverted more toward i]what we see today but Batman lasted 11 weeks in first run theaters.

The current feeling of failure is due to how movie ticket income is split between the theater and studio. Usually the first two weeks it’s now 10/90 between theater and studio. So it’s in the studio’s interest that the opening week or two is huge because after that the split becomes fairer for theaters. Their is a reason a liter of soda is $5 and a couple of cups of popped popcorn is $6.

So now even the public believes that if the opening weekend is poor that the movie isn’t worth seeing. It has become a self-fulling prophecy.

That’s why I don’t dismiss only after one full quarter’s of income. Let’s see where that game is in a year. They may be able to turn it around but I would still think that they will have to be forced into F2P/Hybrid simply because in NA/EU, that’s the income model players are willing to support. There is only room for one game with a subscription and we know which one that is.

“but I would still think that they will have to be forced into F2P/Hybrid simply because in NA/EU, that’s the income model players are willing to support.”
So you first tell you would want to wait a year before you decide if the game ‘failed’. But then tell you think they have to go F2P because the current model does not work.

Part of there package was the P2P. If they have to change that into something else again I see that again as a fail because what they envisioned did not worked / failed.

What you seem to be talking about is more the question if they can make the correct changes (inducing payment model) to turn the tide (what would not be needed in the first place if everything was going fine!). And if they then manage to get things going again you still consider it a success. So maybe our definition is different.

In that case I see it as a game that (from a commercial viewpoint) did (originally) fail but after some changes they managed to get it back on the rails. Meaning it was off the rails and if something go’s of the rails that is kinda a fail. I never said the game was dead. It simply did imho not meat the expectation and so in that way it failed.

BTW the other way around is also possible. GW2 was a success and I don’t know what Anet and NcSoft do see as long term goals for GW2 but I do feel (and have for a long time) that the game has a problem if it comes to the long term. What those numbers seem to back up. So it’s also possible a game is a success but the in the long run it is still a fail (See destiny, they have plants for 10 years I think, so far it’s a success but if the game pretty much dies after 5 years that part would still be a fail) or the game dies anyway. I also think Anet needs to make changes to keep GW2 healthy for the long term and I have said that from about half a year after release. However it’s clear that (at least for the shorter term (2/3 years) GW2 was a huge success.