Guild Wars 2

Maybe it’s just me, but when using the Mystic Forge, I have noticed that if I use my necro, I rarely get anything of value. Been farming SW for awhile, and getting tons of rares to toss in. Most times I get another rare, and very very rarely will I get an exotic.
So I decided to hand over all my rares my warrior to my warrior, and lo and behold, I started getting exotics. In 12 rares that I tossed in I got 2 exotics. I tossed in nearly 3 times that number on my necro with no exotics.
Maybe it’s confirmation biased and RNG. But it seems that with necro I don’t get near as good returns from the MF.
Has anyone else noticed this? Or am I trippin’?

Anet might be out to get necro, but I’m pretty sure you’re just being screwed over by RNG.

Cecilia.5179:

Anet might be out to get necro, but I’m pretty sure you’re just being screwed over by RNG.

That may be the case, but after I switched to my warrior to toss in rares, I’ve gotten more exotics. I may just keep doing that because it seems my necro has terribad luck and Zomorros hates him for whatever reason. :P

Zomorros is all about elitism and time sinks so he of course hates necros, second only to rangers ~ (J/k)

Probably just rng being rng as normal for the mystic toilet.

pdavis.8031:

Maybe it’s just me, but when using the Mystic Forge, I have noticed that if I use my necro, I rarely get anything of value. Been farming SW for awhile, and getting tons of rares to toss in. Most times I get another rare, and very very rarely will I get an exotic.
So I decided to hand over all my rares my warrior to my warrior, and lo and behold, I started getting exotics. In 12 rares that I tossed in I got 2 exotics. I tossed in nearly 3 times that number on my necro with no exotics.
Maybe it’s confirmation biased and RNG. But it seems that with necro I don’t get near as good returns from the MF.
Has anyone else noticed this? Or am I trippin’?

During my last spree of forging precursors and tossing in rare weapons, my worst streak was 23 forges without getting an exotic, my best streak was 7/9 forges giving exotics.

Both with the same character at the same day.

Its rng.

You’re tripping.
First forging on my necro last month got me The Legend. Second got me another one.
RNG at it’s finest.

With a 20% chance of promotion, it’s not that unusual to see streaks. If you want to know if your necro is getting worse luck, you’d need to track 200-300 attempts on each character. A few months ago, I had a weird streak with forging masterwork daggers:

• 30 attempts (120 daggers): 1 rare (expected: 6).
• 8 attempts (32 daggers): 6 rares (expected 1.5)

The first 30: looked like a drop in the promotion rate. The last 8: looked like an increase. Taken as a whole, the two streaks ended up delivering almost exactly the number predicted. Imagine if those streaks occurred on two different characters — it might appear that there was some connection between profession and the promotion rate, when instead it was just luck.

Just goes to show how bad we humans are at estimating odds or understanding patterns by gut alone. We need to write down our observations for a while before we can start to say whether there’s a new pattern or not.

If you flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row (totally possible), it doesn’t mean the odds are not 50%.

Tip: Google “Law of Large Numbers”

This is pretty much how luck superstitions start. One char gets better drops/forging than another and rather than attributing it to RNG, it becomes one char is luckier than another. In real life the luck superstition will attach itself to “lucky shirts” or hats or whatever else the person might have been wearing that they can consider as giving them good luck. People try to see patterns in randomness and figure out how to beat the odds, but it’s random.

Might not be necromancer that’s the problem but certain characters have a different luck when it comes to RNG, there has always been rumours saying an account/character as set luck for precursors some accounts/characters are fixed to never get one and other a fixed to get one easily. Meaning that character might just been own of the RNG list.

MadOtaku.8532:

Might not be necromancer that’s the problem but certain characters have a different luck when it comes to RNG, there has always been rumours saying an account/character as set luck for precursors some accounts/characters are fixed to never get one and other a fixed to get one easily. Meaning that character might just been own of the RNG list.

Thats only rumors and Anet already stated that nothing like account rng modifiers exist.

Wanze.8410:

MadOtaku.8532:

Might not be necromancer that’s the problem but certain characters have a different luck when it comes to RNG, there has always been rumours saying an account/character as set luck for precursors some accounts/characters are fixed to never get one and other a fixed to get one easily. Meaning that character might just been own of the RNG list.

Thats only rumors and Anet already stated that nothing like account rng modifiers exist.

like they would tell us, its a conspiracy i tells ya, a conspiracy XD

MadOtaku.8532:

Wanze.8410:

MadOtaku.8532:

Might not be necromancer that’s the problem but certain characters have a different luck when it comes to RNG, there has always been rumours saying an account/character as set luck for precursors some accounts/characters are fixed to never get one and other a fixed to get one easily. Meaning that character might just been own of the RNG list.

Thats only rumors and Anet already stated that nothing like account rng modifiers exist.

like they would tell us, its a conspiracy i tells ya, a conspiracy XD

I am excited to learn what Anet is trying to achieve with this, according to your theory.

Wanze.8410:

MadOtaku.8532:

Wanze.8410:

MadOtaku.8532:

Might not be necromancer that’s the problem but certain characters have a different luck when it comes to RNG, there has always been rumours saying an account/character as set luck for precursors some accounts/characters are fixed to never get one and other a fixed to get one easily. Meaning that character might just been own of the RNG list.

Thats only rumors and Anet already stated that nothing like account rng modifiers exist.

like they would tell us, its a conspiracy i tells ya, a conspiracy XD

I am excited to learn what Anet is trying to achieve with this, according to your theory.

Well from a business stand point RNG is foolish, controlling the entire games drops would be if you ask me easier and better.
Also if one guy comes along and say i got a pre in one try then thousands proceed to try and thus creating a monopolised game economy.

MadOtaku.8532:

Wanze.8410:

MadOtaku.8532:

Wanze.8410:

MadOtaku.8532:

Might not be necromancer that’s the problem but certain characters have a different luck when it comes to RNG, there has always been rumours saying an account/character as set luck for precursors some accounts/characters are fixed to never get one and other a fixed to get one easily. Meaning that character might just been own of the RNG list.

Thats only rumors and Anet already stated that nothing like account rng modifiers exist.

like they would tell us, its a conspiracy i tells ya, a conspiracy XD

I am excited to learn what Anet is trying to achieve with this, according to your theory.

Well from a business stand point RNG is foolish, controlling the entire games drops would be if you ask me easier and better.
Also if one guy comes along and say i got a pre in one try then thousands proceed to try and thus creating a monopolised game economy.

I think from a business stand point it would be foolish to put you in charge of a game economy, if you truly believe what you just wrote.

First of all, it would take dozens, if not hundreds of people if you were trying to micro manage the game economy. And they would probably have a harder time to micro manage it than a single guy in charge of balancing it. That many employees mean alot of pay roll, employee turnover and possibilities to muck up or leak insider info.

They already have total power over gold and material faucets, so no need to aim for a “monopolised game economy”, whatever that may be.

Four Necros in the Forge would probably return five Revs with maybe enough left over for a couple of Warriors. ;P

*Joking (there’d only be enough left over for one Warrior).

nolop.8095:

What happens if 4 necros jump into the forge ? Is there a chance they get transformed into one good character like a Warrior or something ?

RNg being RNG, the likelyhood of getting a good character from 4 necros is about the same as getting a legendary (not a precursor) from 4 fine pieces of gear. No, you’ll get a worse character if you forge 4 necromancers. :P

Another RNG conspiracy thread?

I’m surprised nobody has put the sign up yet.

Crimson Clouds.4853:

Another RNG conspiracy thread?

I’m surprised nobody has put the sign up yet.

I wouldn’t say it was an RNG conspiracy. The only reason I mention it was because of this thread:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/support/bugs/Necro-loot-drops-are-bugged/first#post4462317

It seems that people were having issues with loot in general with necro.

Cecilia.5179:

Anet might be out to get necro, but I’m pretty sure you’re just being screwed over by RNG.

There is a hidden “luck” stat. Some characters are luckier than others.

Svarty.8019:

Cecilia.5179:

Anet might be out to get necro, but I’m pretty sure you’re just being screwed over by RNG.

There is a hidden “luck” stat. Some characters are luckier than others.

Your source?

Because JS said something different about DR and account modifiers.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/page/5#post4491110

Your necro is born under a bad sign.

velmeister.4187:

Your necro is born under a bad sign.

Well he does follow Grenth so…..

Maybe thats the “Hidden” modifier. The choices in character creation. Maybe if he was a follower of Dwayna instead he would have much better luck. :P

pdavis.8031:

nolop.8095:

What happens if 4 necros jump into the forge ? Is there a chance they get transformed into one good character like a Warrior or something ?

RNg being RNG, the likelyhood of getting a good character from 4 necros is about the same as getting a legendary (not a precursor) from 4 fine pieces of gear. No, you’ll get a worse character if you forge 4 necromancers. :P

do you think you get a quaggan when you do that?

Oreithyia.3064:

pdavis.8031:

nolop.8095:

What happens if 4 necros jump into the forge ? Is there a chance they get transformed into one good character like a Warrior or something ?

RNg being RNG, the likelyhood of getting a good character from 4 necros is about the same as getting a legendary (not a precursor) from 4 fine pieces of gear. No, you’ll get a worse character if you forge 4 necromancers. :P

do you think you get a quaggan when you do that?

A Quaggen would be an upgrade so no. A Skritt or Risen grub would be more likely. :P

I swear to God necros will complain about anything.

Iconik.8712:

I swear to God necros will complain about anything.

It wasn’t so much of a complaint as it was an observation. One that was wrong as it turns out. I don’t complain much. Even though much of the necro community complains about how bad necros are.

Wanze.8410:

Svarty.8019:

Cecilia.5179:

Anet might be out to get necro, but I’m pretty sure you’re just being screwed over by RNG.

There is a hidden “luck” stat. Some characters are luckier than others.

Your source?

Because JS said something different about DR and account modifiers.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/page/5#post4491110

Where does he say something different? It’s not on that link.

Random number generator is random.

Svarty.8019:

Wanze.8410:

Svarty.8019:

Cecilia.5179:

Anet might be out to get necro, but I’m pretty sure you’re just being screwed over by RNG.

There is a hidden “luck” stat. Some characters are luckier than others.

Your source?

Because JS said something different about DR and account modifiers.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/page/5#post4491110

Where does he say something different? It’s not on that link.

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

You didnt link your source yet.