Guild Wars 2

After a total of roughly 600 rare lvl 80 GS, in fact as you all would guess it was a complete net loss and a waste of time.

Before you jump on me about the chances of getting it blah blah kittening blah, some people have got the precursor in less tries and people have failed at even more than 600 swords. Buying the precursor on the TP is out of the question, even the cheapest Dawn is at around 450g (lets not even mention Dusk prices). So this leaves the average person with the gamble.

So after 600 swords I got squat. Less swords have been used and people have got the precursor. Is it luck? or is there an actual % drop rate out there for these precursors? Doesn’t seem like there is to me it just appears that its fair for some players and useless for others.

Im not complaining about how long it takes to obtain a legendary, as far as im concerned every other ingredient where easy to collect. Now here I am sitting, wondering what I should do to get this precursor because the Mystic Forge just isnt workin out.

Don’t you have to throw exotic Greatswords into the forge?

No. Rare or Exotic work.

If you sold those 600 swords for a gold a piece….

Well I spend 780g worth of rares and exotics on my task to either get dawn dusk or colossus. I ended up with colossus today, keep trying!

Rare is much cheaper, but a lower probability, as first it (probably, YMMV) has to roll to see if it’s going to upgrade, then roll again to see what it’ll upgrade to.

Malediktus.9250:

Well I spend 780g worth of rares and exotics on my task to either get dawn dusk or colossus. I ended up with colossus today, keep trying!

I dont want the hammer. 780g is absurd. You would have bought any precursor with that amount spent. Im not looking to either A) Spend 600+g to just out right buy the precursor, or Spend another possible 500g to obtain it. Something needs to be done.

Mike.7320:

Malediktus.9250:

Well I spend 780g worth of rares and exotics on my task to either get dawn dusk or colossus. I ended up with colossus today, keep trying!

I dont want the hammer. 780g is absurd. You would have bought any precursor with that amount spent. Im not looking to either A) Spend 600+g to just out right buy the precursor, or Spend another possible 500g to obtain it. Something needs to be done.

Its all about luck, there are several people in my guild who got it in the first 10 tries or even several precursors already.
In the end it has to even out (Law of large noumbers). So there will be incredble lucky and incredibly unlucky people (like me).

I rather gamble more than rewarding trader or lucky people by buying it on the trading post, but that might be just me.

Its all a chance, i tossed in a bunch of low level(50-70ish) karma trinkets and a green 80 dagger and got a 80 rare shortbow. Havent gotten any exos or legends yet but illkeep trying bc ill never just outright buy one.

Hopefully theyll implement that other route to get one soon.

if you can be patient, wait for the scavenger hunt. it has been confirmed many times over it is in development

It’s a gamble. What in the world were you expecting?

Those who get it within their first few tries are so happy and they’re lucky
Those who don’t get it whine and complain.

I’ve thrown 300g worth of rares since release in the forge. And I haven’t got any precursors. Yet I don’t whine because I understood the low probability.

Vol.5241:

It’s a gamble. What in the world were you expecting?

Those who get it within their first few tries are so happy and they’re lucky
Those who don’t get it whine and complain.

I’ve thrown 300g worth of rares since release in the forge. And I haven’t got any precursors. Yet I don’t whine because I understood the low probability.

There is no probability, its all luck EG the players who get it in under 300 swords or even in under 100 swords. This is about luck which the game dishes out unequally.

There is probability. Almost everything in universe is based on probability if you consider quantum physics.

Malediktus.9250:

There is probability. Almost everything in universe is based on probability if you consider quantum physics.

I’m not sure how that guy could not understand the relationship between luck and probability

Probability takes math, cold unfeeling calculations. Luck makes you feel special, or cursed. They have absolutely nothing in common.

Alloy.2839:

Probability takes math, cold unfeeling calculations. Luck makes you feel special, or cursed. They have absolutely nothing in common.

You win $50 million in the lottery, and you’ll feel pretty lucky right?

The odds are 1 in x number of people who bought the ticket.

The probability is 1/x

That’s what they have in common.

Luck is the human brain’s way of trying to explain probability. The brain is wired to try to understand the world the best way that it can.

Needless to say ‘luck’ doesnt actually exist, only probability. The probability of gaining a pre-curser per attempt is a set percentage. Think of it as each roll of the dice is a play at the lottery. The majority lose but some people can win. Just because certain people win and you do not doesnt mean theres some strange force at work.

Vol.5241:

Alloy.2839:

Probability takes math, cold unfeeling calculations. Luck makes you feel special, or cursed. They have absolutely nothing in common.

You win $50 million in the lottery, and you’ll feel pretty lucky right?

The odds are 1 in x number of people who bought the ticket.

The probability is 1/x

That’s what they have in common.

The point he was making so subtly is that probability is about people interacting with actual reality, while luck is about people dealing in superstition. More of a psychological/philosophical point than a mathematical/practical one.

Mike.7320:

Vol.5241:

It’s a gamble. What in the world were you expecting?

Those who get it within their first few tries are so happy and they’re lucky
Those who don’t get it whine and complain.

I’ve thrown 300g worth of rares since release in the forge. And I haven’t got any precursors. Yet I don’t whine because I understood the low probability.

There is no probability, its all luck EG the players who get it in under 300 swords or even in under 100 swords. This is about luck which the game dishes out unequally.

You do realize your entire statement talks about mathmatical probability, correct? I’ve argued with Vol on other threads today but this one I have to agree with.

Knowing that there are changes coming soon to legendary crafting and ascended crafting and how pre-cursors are obtained, it’s sort of silly to be wasting time and resources on making one now.

I’d recommend holding off on it until at least Feb to see if the changes go live then. Could end up saving you hundreds of gold and freeing up the time to work on some other things.

Throwing rares is actually stupid.

When you throw 4 rares, you have like 5% chance to get an exotic.
When you throw 4 exotic, you are guaranted to get an exotic.

So your chance to get a precursor, whatever they are, are divided by 20 whenever you use rares. Are exotics 20x more expensive than rares? No. Conclusion: it’s much cheaper to use exotics.

Also, when you use the 4 cheaper exotics of the TP, (ex: worth 2g/ea), you have a chance to get an exotic that worth much more. Like 5 gold. So in the end, it will only cost you 3 gold.

But I agree that precursors should NOT be acquired that way. Luck is the worst thing that exists in the universe.

When talking about probability vs luck we have to keep in mind that when we’re dealing with such low probabilities for success, it’s starts to feel like luck.

I pretty much refuse to play any game that way. There is no set means to gain everything needed for a particular Legendary so I’m simply not going after one. This will undoubtedly shorten the length of time I play this game, and help me to decide if I ever buy any expansions. I’ve already decided I’m never spending money on the coin mall.

Keiran.1896:

Throwing rares is actually stupid.

When you throw 4 rares, you have like 5% chance to get an exotic.
When you throw 4 exotic, you are guaranted to get an exotic.

So your chance to get a precursor, whatever they are, are divided by 20 whenever you use rares. Are exotics 20x more expensive than rares? No. Conclusion: it’s much cheaper to use exotics.

Also, when you use the 4 cheaper exotics of the TP, (ex: worth 2g/ea), you have a chance to get an exotic that worth much more. Like 5 gold. So in the end, it will only cost you 3 gold.

Someone else posted a good trick a while back that was confirmed by others to work. Just tried searching but couldn’t find it, maybe someone here remembers…

It was something along the lines of being able to use three level 70 rares (which were significantly cheaper since they are below the ecto salvage min) and one level 80 exotic could make precursors and was significantly cheaper than buying four level 75+ exotics or rares.

Mind you, that might not have been the exact trick, but it was close to that so I’m hoping it sparks someones memory that can recall more accurately or remembers the name of the thread.

AcidicVision.5498:

Someone else posted a good trick a while back that was confirmed by others to work. Just tried searching but couldn’t find it, maybe someone here remembers…

It was something along the lines of being able to use three level 70 rares (which were significantly cheaper since they are below the ecto salvage min) and one level 80 exotic could make precursors and was significantly cheaper than buying four level 75+ exotics or rares.

Mind you, that might not have been the exact trick, but it was close to that so I’m hoping it sparks someones memory that can recall more accurately or remembers the name of the thread.

That would be classified as an Exploit; the Forge is supposed to require 4 items of the same rarity.

Malediktus.9250:

Well I spend 780g worth of rares and exotics on my task to either get dawn dusk or colossus. I ended up with colossus today, keep trying!

Keep trying to do what exactly? Spend twice as much as you should to get the same item, through gambling instead?

In the name of logic, please do not keep trying and save your gold to buy the precursor directly.

Got mine with less than 30 gold worth of rares. Nothing wrong with this RNG system n_n!

Still feel your pain though, unless you’re a hardcore farmer the precursors will go up in price faster than you can accumulate gold. Leaving the MF as probably the only viable way some people have to get precursors.

Spend around 200g on the mystic forge, I got dawn and dusk among a bunch of other worthless crap out of it, while many of my guildies did the same, even used the same greatsword combination as me, got nothing.

It’s really all just about luck.

i have forged around 1,000 rare gs and so far only gotten 1 named exotic, an ebonblade. The drop rate is utterly insane, i would just make weapons, break them down for ectos, and wait for the scavenger hunt

Vol.5241:

Alloy.2839:

Probability takes math, cold unfeeling calculations. Luck makes you feel special, or cursed. They have absolutely nothing in common.

You win $50 million in the lottery, and you’ll feel pretty lucky right?

The odds are 1 in x number of people who bought the ticket.

The probability is 1/x

That’s what they have in common.

That is NOT how the lottery works. It is based on the statistical number of possible combinations that, say for example, 6 particular numbers will be drawn out of 45. It has nothing to do with how many people buy tickets.

Based on the fact that OP had so many items, it would have worked in his favour to sell as many of them on TP. I’m sure he would have made >100G

I got my dawn 4 days ago in mystic forge, and I only did it once out of sheer luck. Cost me only 10g.

Too funny. With the gold spent making the swords to waste, and it is a waste, you could have done what many folks pointed out or sold enough to nearly buy a fully finished, worthless representation of whom Anet targets for primary customers. Or you can simply not pander to Anet and not worry about a bad game mechanic and stigmatized being called a farmer and grinder.

Your choice though. Entertainment is entertainment, for all of us, Grin.

Precursors can be pretty brutal, I agree on that.

That said, I imagine the cost to make a legendary would just disperse itself across the board if precursors were easier to get. If the desirable precursors were common enough that you could buy them for 50g or something, it’d just increase demand for all the other stuff. T6 mats would cost 4s more each, lodestones an extra 30s, ectos another 5s, and so on (just made up some numbers).

Which probably isn’t good for the game since that impacts the non legendary market pretty meaningfully.

Minion of Vey.4398:

Precursors can be pretty brutal, I agree on that.

That said, I imagine the cost to make a legendary would just disperse itself across the board if precursors were easier to get. If the desirable precursors were common enough that you could buy them for 50g or something, it’d just increase demand for all the other stuff. T6 mats would cost 4s more each, lodestones an extra 30s, ectos another 5s, and so on (just made up some numbers).

Which probably isn’t good for the game since that impacts the non legendary market pretty meaningfully.

Any recipe which requires charged or corrupted lodestones is already producing exotics which cost more to create than it does to sell the mats and buy a precursor.

I feel like I was so cheated reading these posts of people claiming to have gotten the precursor in 1 try or in under 50g or under 100 swords when ive put so much into it and got kitten back from it.

I’m on the same boat. Roughly 1100+ rare GS’s and about 50+ exotic in the mystic toilet. lalalalalalalala

Vol.5241:

It’s a gamble. What in the world were you expecting?

Those who get it within their first few tries are so happy and they’re lucky
Those who don’t get it whine and complain.

I’ve thrown 300g worth of rares since release in the forge. And I haven’t got any precursors. Yet I don’t whine because I understood the low probability.

except its not really random, and its not really probabability. Its a random number generator, which, depending on its implementation can be really bad. Going by anecdotal evidence, it seems like this random number generator is that way.

I have done mystic forge for for other items probably more than 3000 times across multiple charachters, i notice that one charachter got 7 of one item and another got zero, i also notice that if i roll one item in a sitting, its more likely that i will roll that item again than some other new item.

the whole issue is, its not really random, it seems random when you look at large pools, and look at the data a certain way, but you end up getting a distribution that isnt really random.

translation, some people are really going to be more or less lucky with Random number generators. Some people will have a pattern that is consitently better output than others. And some people will have consistently worse performance.

that aside, even the idea that precursors should be random is poor, because it makes it so that you have no good clear means to progress along a path. How much of a good idea would it be to make it so the main ingredient in becoming a doctor be picking 6 random numbers out of 2 million possibilities. How attractive is it to study hard, go to school for 6 years, do a residency, and then have to wait or hope you can get that ticket.

now those who say you can buy a precursor, lets say that the same was true; people who won can sell the ticket, but keeping in mind only say 4% of people win each year, it will probably be priced for what the top 4% of people make money wise. IE a lot of money.

Its a bad system for being the main goal of the game post 80

Nearly 200 greatswords and i got my Dusk

Malediktus.9250:

There is probability. Almost everything in universe is based on probability if you consider quantum physics.

Probably but until i can make heads or tails of that im sticking to good ol’ fashioned superstition and luck

After about 20 exotics I saved my gold and bought it off the TP.

remember just because you have lost x amount to the forge so far.. it does Not increase your chances..

as in head always showing and saying tails is sure to come up next it’s been head th last 30 times It must hit it this time..

(I learnt this the hard way from using martingale betting systems on roulette)

Using rares in the forge is like trying to become rich using scratch tickets.

Medazolam.3058:

if you can be patient, wait for the scavenger hunt. it has been confirmed many times over it is in development

I really doubt the scavenger hunt will help much. It may be a new way to get a precursor, which could be fun for some, but I expect the actual chances to be identical to or less probable than using the mystic forge.

phys.7689:

except its not really random, and its not really probabability. Its a random number generator, which, depending on its implementation can be really bad. Going by anecdotal evidence, it seems like this random number generator is that way.

I have done mystic forge for for other items probably more than 3000 times across multiple charachters, i notice that one charachter got 7 of one item and another got zero, i also notice that if i roll one item in a sitting, its more likely that i will roll that item again than some other new item.

the whole issue is, its not really random, it seems random when you look at large pools, and look at the data a certain way, but you end up getting a distribution that isnt really random.

It’s like you almost know what you’re talking about, but you really don’t. Getting an RNG right (and this could be truly random or pseudo-random, you have no way of telling, and it doesn’t really matter) is actually not that hard. It’s possibly to screw up the results of it (google “wi flag”) but that’s pretty unlikely here.

You’re trying to use anecdotal evidence to evaluate a situation that can really only be analyzed on a much larger scale in aggregate. Yes you’ll see patterns, but that’s largely because your brain is designed to, not because they’re there. Or to think about it another way, yes there are patterns but any random system will contain patterns; however they have no relevance and do not offer any way to predict future events.

Your analysis of what’s going on (“I’m more likely to get the same item twice on one character”) is akin to those folks that think they can detect patterns in slot machines (“that second one from the end always pays out more” or “I raise my bet when I’m on a streak and lower it when I’m not”).

The fact that it only appears random when you look at large pools is because it is, and that’s the only valid way to look at it.

Here’s a page you might consider reading: http://www.problemgambling.ca/EN/ResourcesForProfessionals/Pages/ErroneousBeliefs.aspx

Didn’t Colin say that even thought the scavenger hunt was planned, it’s not actually being worked on at the moment? I was thinking he basically said that its going to take a while.

Wasn’t Colin, serious use a search people.

The lady who’s job it is posted that it was in early sketch design but not being implemented by a team yet, and then the internet turned special and went “Waaaaah no hunt waaaaaaaah you said next patch”… which they didn’t.

Its a carrot to keep you hoping until they fix the real problem, one day the balanced precursor market will be close enough to real and the only people wanting the hunt will be cheap/lazy folks who stopped otherwise trying when it was “announced”.

If you search the hundreds of scavenger hunt / precursor topics since the game’s launch this is (IMO) the core of the situation:

Lindesy Murdock, October 2012

We’ve seen players discussing the topic of crafting legendary precursor weapons and claiming that we’ve made changes to make this more difficult. We’d like to be clear that we did not make any across the board changes to reduce the drop rate, nor was it our intention to significantly increase the difficulty in acquiring these precursor weapons.

We did fix a few bugged recipes that were rewarding Legendary precursors more often than they should have been. These recipes were mostly using Rares in the level 70-75 range and mostly affected the precursors for the greatswords and the dagger. This has had some effect on the drop rate when using lower level rares to attempt to get a precursor but it was never intended for that to be the best way of acquiring these weapons. The recipes for throwing in level 80 exotics have not changed at all.

We have been watching the prices climbing on Legendary precursors and share your concerns about some of them becoming too expensive. We will continue to monitor the situation and will make any adjustments we feel are necessary.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Official-Response-Drop-Rate-of-Legendary-Precursors/first#post378176

(note: this when Dusk and Dawn were starting to reach 300g ea)

John Smith, November 2012

We’ve received a large amount of feedback about Legendaries becoming unreachable. This is actually a topic we’ve been tracking for quite some time. To ease your minds I am here to say that it’s something we’ve been watching and we’ve been listening to your feedback. You can expect to begin to see changes addressing the issue starting with our next build.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Recent-Market-Shifts-Follow-up-Precursors/first#post682213

Lindey Murdock, November 2012

I am definitely working on the precursor scavenger hunt, but like others have said, things like this take time and I want to get it right. Not to mention, it’s not the only thing on my plate. Please do not expect to see the precursor scavenger hunt in the next patch. I may be awesome, but I am still only human and this is a fairly large amount of work to get done and done right. Please be patient!

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Patch-fixing-precursors/first#post761776

Colin Johanson, December 2012

Hey guys,

Just a quick update on where the whole scavenger hunt system stands since I know that’s a topic many of you have brought up recently. We’re not currently actively working on building any sort of legendary precursor scavenger hunt, this is something we want to do in the future and we’re in the midst of designing how this would function, but no one is actively building this feature and you should not expect in the Jan/Feb/March releases at this point.

We are however working on expanding reward systems to make them more re-rewarding across all parts of the game, making the open world more rewarding, and adding new ways you can earn precursors as rewards via new reward systems taking advantage of our open persistent world.

Some of these additions will come as early as the January release, and will get covered in more detail in the next week or two as well release all the details about this release once testing has signed off it’s all ready to go in January. (we’ll also provide a high level summary of our goals with reward systems, etc. in our 2013 blog post, which should be out next week)

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Where-s-the-Scavenger-Hunt-post/first#post1190541

…continued from post above

A few eyebrows were raised. Colin promptly responded with:

To clarify since I think these two statements could be confusing without context, Linsey is indeed working on designing the system by which we’d add precursor scavenger hunts to the game. We are not actively implementing that design yet, it hasn’t been finalized, and building it that will involve a much larger team.
No conflicting statements here, as a game designer when they are working on something, usually that means they are designing it, as that is their job.
Good catch and thank you for asking for clarity!

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Where-s-the-Scavenger-Hunt-post/first#post1191312

Colin Johanson, December 2012

I just want to quickly clarify to set expectations, nothing in the blog post, nor nothing we’ve said anywhere has said you will be able to buy precursor items directly for crowns, this is not the case. We’ve simply said we’ll try and find some other places to add a chance to get them to the game until we’ve implemented the eventual precursor scavenger hunt.

Long term we’ll be working on the scavenger hunt concept to track down and earn a precursor item as a direct form of earning the reward. We’ll discuss that in more detail in the future once a design and implementation has been finalized.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/How-many-crowns-for-precurser/first#post1217085

(note: laurels were referred to as “crowns” for a short time)

And that’s most of the important bits of info we have from Anet around scavenger hunt or precursor price monitoring.
18 March, 2013.

thisolderhead.5127:

Wasn’t Colin, serious use a search people.

The lady who’s job it is posted that it was in early sketch design but not being implemented by a team yet, and then the internet turned special and went “Waaaaah no hunt waaaaaaaah you said next patch”… which they didn’t.

Its a carrot to keep you hoping until they fix the real problem, one day the balanced precursor market will be close enough to real and the only people wanting the hunt will be cheap/lazy folks who stopped otherwise trying when it was “announced”.

Maybe, you Sir, should take your own advice before calling someone else out.

Colin Johanson, December 2012
Hey guys,
Just a quick update on where the whole scavenger hunt system stands since I know that’s a topic many of you have brought up recently. We’re not currently actively working on building any sort of legendary precursor scavenger hunt, this is something we want to do in the future and we’re in the midst of designing how this would function, but no one is actively building this feature and you should not expect in the Jan/Feb/March releases at this point.
We are however working on expanding reward systems to make them more re-rewarding across all parts of the game, making the open world more rewarding, and adding new ways you can earn precursors as rewards via new reward systems taking advantage of our open persistent world.
Some of these additions will come as early as the January release, and will get covered in more detail in the next week or two as well release all the details about this release once testing has signed off it’s all ready to go in January. (we’ll also provide a high level summary of our goals with reward systems, etc. in our 2013 blog post, which should be out next week)

Nothing is wrong with precursor prices.

Go look at Venom – quite a reasonable price. Go use that if you don’t like the more expensive ones.

Vol.5241:

Nothing is wrong with precursor prices.

Go look at Venom – quite a reasonable price. Go use that if you don’t like the more expensive ones.

Sarcasm or serious?

If serious… /sadface