Guild Wars 2

My first precursors was only one try which was the rifle . However i used the mulah to upgrade my account several ways. Now i do the group events to sell rares to fund buying cheap exotics which have a higher chance of giving a precursor which im about 10 in no luck.

900 rare staffs in and still no Legend. Guild mate got 4 precursors (2 dawn, 1 dusk, 1 frostfang) within 1 month and using about 60 rares in total. Talk about luck….

SadieDeAtreia.8912:

Vol.5241:

Nothing is wrong with precursor prices.

Go look at Venom – quite a reasonable price. Go use that if you don’t like the more expensive ones.

Sarcasm or serious?

If serious… /sadface

Should be serious. Kraitkin is sweet, much better than these glorified GS giant paintbrushes that everyone and their dog has now.

No, I’m serious.

There’s nothing wrong with dusk/dawn prices. They are driven by supply/demand

If you are only willing to buy my dusk for 30g, but someone out there is willing to pay me 600g, why in the world would I choose to sell to you.

Venom is cheap because no one wants it. Dusk/Dawn is expensive because more people want it. Simple.

There’s nothing wrong with dusk/dawn prices. They are driven by supply/demand

Thanks doc.

This is Dawn. Looks legit to me.

Mike.7320:

After a total of roughly 600 rare lvl 80 GS, in fact as you all would guess it was a complete net loss and a waste of time.

Before you jump on me about the chances of getting it blah blah kittening blah, some people have got the precursor in less tries and people have failed at even more than 600 swords. Buying the precursor on the TP is out of the question, even the cheapest Dawn is at around 450g (lets not even mention Dusk prices). So this leaves the average person with the gamble.

So after 600 swords I got squat. Less swords have been used and people have got the precursor. Is it luck? or is there an actual % drop rate out there for these precursors? Doesn’t seem like there is to me it just appears that its fair for some players and useless for others.

Im not complaining about how long it takes to obtain a legendary, as far as im concerned every other ingredient where easy to collect. Now here I am sitting, wondering what I should do to get this precursor because the Mystic Forge just isnt workin out.

For the average person, you need to throw at least 3000-4000 rare GS into the forge to have a decent chance of being assured to get one. Needless to say, this is well above the cost of the precursor. So unless you’re feeling lucky, be prepared to lose.

Also, to clarify luck and probability, they’re related things. Saying someone is lucky just means they were lucky in terms of beating the probability. Imagine a sea of swords where 4000 GS where one of them is a dusk. The people who got lucky were the ones who had dusk early in the line while the others who were unlucky had dusk at the END of the line. If those people continued to throw GS after they got the dusk, they would most likely find themselves at a lost. Of course, just like gambling, it’s smart to leave the table while you’re winning.

The price of dawn and dusk are reasonable in terms of the price to get it in the mystic forge. There is a high chance you won’t get one even if you spend 600g on rares (that is about 1500 rare GS, approximately 400 attempts and only one 1/5 will be exotics so making it approximately 80 attempts. In exotic GS terms, it is roughly 220 exotics which is 60 attempts.

Do you see now? it may seem like you threw a lot of swords in but from 1500 GS, you’ve only had ~80 attempts. That is saying if a precursor had a 1 % drop rate (and it isn’t, it’s something around 0.3 %), you still wouldn’t be guaranteed one. If my above % from other peoples statistics is true then you’ll need to have at least 2-3 times the amount of GS to get a guaranteed precursor.

And here’s Dusk.

Iehova.9518:

There’s nothing wrong with dusk/dawn prices. They are driven by supply/demand

Thanks doc.

This is Dawn. Looks legit to me.

What that graph doesn’t show you is that the price is roughly at equilibrium where demand/supply are at a price point that is suitable for both sides.

We know because Dawn has been in the 600-700g price range for a few months now. Of course, with an item that is not considered a commodity, price fluctuations of +-50g are expected.

What that graph doesn’t show you is that the price is roughly at equilibrium where demand/supply are at a price point that is suitable for both sides.

Thanks cap’n.

Vol.5241:

We know because Dawn has been in the 600-700g price range for a few months now. Of course, with an item that is not considered a commodity, price fluctuations of +-50g are expected.

You funny guy.

Are we arguing over semantics now?

No, I’m merely showing the error of your statements.

Iehova.9518:

No, I’m merely showing the error of your statements.

I’m sorry that I mispoke and it appears Dawn has had that price range for only a month and a half. Big whoop.

Oh, and I originally meant Dusk. Dawn traditionally is cheaper.

Meanwhile, goldsellers have 10+ of each precursor and Kormir knows how many legendaries.

Keep telling us it’s not an issue.

Iehova.9518:

Meanwhile, goldsellers have 10+ of each precursor and Kormir knows how many legendaries.

Keep telling us it’s not an issue.

But of course, you can ignore that thread a month ago that showed all of the dusks sold in three days came from unique sellers

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Attention-to-the-price-of-Dusk/page/4

Which surely implies that all the precursors sold now come from unique sellers. Oh wait,

from different individuals

There’s no mention of distinct sellers.

To end this pointless argument: Gimme a finite, deterministic, skill-dependent, difficult way to obtain an account bound precursor of my choice. I wouldn’t even be half mad if this was possible once per character.