Guild Wars 2

Don’t bother with them anymore, it’s not worth the karma → gold ratio anymore. I just spent 300k karma on an alt and received 80k back. I only got 1 lodestone + 7 obsidian shards and nothing else aswell.

You do know that Orrian Boxes are a gamble right? its not 100% you get good items.

I got 20g from 100 orso boxes once, after saving up 400k karma tried it again and got 3-4g worth of items. Its all about luck nothing more, same goes for the Mistic forge, dragon chests, dungeon chest etc etc.

I thought those boxes was for the players who came here to the forums complaining about having X amount of Karma and nothing good to spend it on and for those lookin’ to score some Lodestones?

personally I stopped spending my weekly earnings for one box after I got the Minipet. bought 4 boxes and out pops this dude. Now I don’t wanna risk getting another box cause of that kitten mini. it’s account you see.

You would need a much bigger dataset to confirm that this actual was an actual “nerf”. 380k(assuming you rechugged) karma is what? Next to 83 boxes.

To accurately see if this is actually the case as opposed to RNG: You’d have to do a test like:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1bs9ki/for_boredom_8071700_karma_spent_on_1774_lost/

or

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/188dll/just_spent_1405436_karma_on_lost_orrian_jewelry/ (still not too big of a sample TBH.)

The 1 lodestone and 7 obby shards you got sounds just a little below what it normally is. Funny thing is before I saw this thread, I just went on my thief and blew all 40k karma on 9~ boxes and got 3 shard and a bunch of junk.

RNG will be RNG sometimes. I’m planning on spending about 3 million karma (with full karma boost modifiers so I’ll be getting even more than just 3 million after rechug) in a week and a half, i’ll let you know if it actually is nerfed (even then I could just be having horrible luck).

First day these boxes came i spend about 400k karma and got like 1,5 gold.
Your drops sound completely normal to me.

Well, what else is there to spend karma on if you already bought all the karma items you want?

I’ll still end up doing the boxes when I have a stack of jugs.

Has anyone tried these since the most recent patch that was put forth to fix a problem with the globs ratio? There was a bug that they are being vague about but they said they fixed it. I would hope that was the reason for these boxes not giving anything.

ArkisTruefire.1746:

You would need a much bigger dataset to confirm that this actual was an actual “nerf”. 380k(assuming you rechugged) karma is what? Next to 83 boxes.

To accurately see if this is actually the case as opposed to RNG: You’d have to do a test like:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1bs9ki/for_boredom_8071700_karma_spent_on_1774_lost/

or

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/188dll/just_spent_1405436_karma_on_lost_orrian_jewelry/ (still not too big of a sample TBH.)

The 1 lodestone and 7 obby shards you got sounds just a little below what it normally is. Funny thing is before I saw this thread, I just went on my thief and blew all 40k karma on 9~ boxes and got 3 shard and a bunch of junk.

RNG will be RNG sometimes. I’m planning on spending about 3 million karma (with full karma boost modifiers so I’ll be getting even more than just 3 million after rechug) in a week and a half, i’ll let you know if it actually is nerfed (even then I could just be having horrible luck).

Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.

Large data sets aren’t necessary

I opened 300 boxes last night post patch and got an 8g return. Considering karma is completely worthless otherwise, I consider this a good investment. Was kinda disappointed I didn’t get more lodestones but I did get 3 mini Balth Priests…yay?

I did something around a million and a half to 2 milion karma recently, I ended up making 7g+ just off the vendor trash, got about 57 obsidians, at least one of every lodestone, and three mini balths. I know for sure I got 4 corrupted and two charged lodestones, b/c they were the reason I was doing it.

I also got a sore finger from all that clicking.

my orrians are crap and have always been crap , all normal for me

Xuro.5861:

Don’t bother with them anymore, it’s not worth the karma -> gold ratio anymore. I just spent 300k karma on an alt and received 80k back. I only got 1 lodestone + 7 obsidian shards and nothing else aswell.

I have come out this unlucky before. The first time I spent karma it was about 400k and I got 2 glacials 1 molten and about 10 obisidian shards. I felt completely ripped off. Went back with 100k and got 4 moltens and 3 glacials and the mini. It’s pretty dang random.

Looks to me like you probably got mostly more karma from it. And some junk woth 50c. This is not a RNG item. Just statistically not in your favor.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lost_Orrian_Jewelry_Box/Drop_rate

Considering Karma is really only used for cooking Orr armor and Racial Weapons I still think that your karma was still spent.

They didn’t used to be this way actually when they first released them they were actually quite filled with T6 mats. Now you’re basically screwed. 1-6 1-10 will drop something but nothing of value and definitely not the most rare of items that need the most fixing in the game like dusts or lodestones or any of the items one might actually need for anything.

I keep seeing these pesky RNG posts in response to the OP.

As a response to anyone who keeps saying “That’s not a large enough sample” or “that’s RNG for you” please take a look.

This really doesn’t happen like this in any other game. In WoW for example they had real stealing. ( I know I spent hours doing it on my Rogue) and they had epics you could get from boxes you stole from the enemies. I had two of those jokers in about a month’s time which were selling pretty well. That doesn’t happen in this game. The RNG here is weird lopsided and definitely not Random in the least for some players.

tigirius.9014:

ArkisTruefire.1746:

You would need a much bigger dataset to confirm that this actual was an actual “nerf”. 380k(assuming you rechugged) karma is what? Next to 83 boxes.

To accurately see if this is actually the case as opposed to RNG: You’d have to do a test like:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1bs9ki/for_boredom_8071700_karma_spent_on_1774_lost/

or

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/188dll/just_spent_1405436_karma_on_lost_orrian_jewelry/ (still not too big of a sample TBH.)

The 1 lodestone and 7 obby shards you got sounds just a little below what it normally is. Funny thing is before I saw this thread, I just went on my thief and blew all 40k karma on 9~ boxes and got 3 shard and a bunch of junk.

RNG will be RNG sometimes. I’m planning on spending about 3 million karma (with full karma boost modifiers so I’ll be getting even more than just 3 million after rechug) in a week and a half, i’ll let you know if it actually is nerfed (even then I could just be having horrible luck).

Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.

Large data sets aren’t necessary

LOL Do you know how John Smith would have determined there was a bug? He would have looked at every single ecto salvage and noticed a discrepancy. If every single salvage is not a large data set then I don’t know what is.

LOL.

Considering you have a VERY small chance of getting the T6 mats, as shown by the drop rate page, you certainly CAN have very bad luck with the drops. The RNG is working fine, seriously, 8g is around what I’ve always gotten doing ~300 boxes. That’s why I never do less than 100 boxes, any less than that and you’ve got a real low chance of actually hitting T6 mats.

Your experience stealing stuff in WoW has no bearing on the RNG in this game.

tigirius.9014:

They didn’t used to be this way actually when they first released them they were actually quite filled with T6 mats. Now you’re basically screwed. 1-6 1-10 will drop something but nothing of value and definitely not the most rare of items that need the most fixing in the game like dusts or lodestones or any of the items one might actually need for anything.

I keep seeing these pesky RNG posts in response to the OP.

As a response to anyone who keeps saying “That’s not a large enough sample” or “that’s RNG for you” please take a look.

This really doesn’t happen like this in any other game. In WoW for example they had real stealing. ( I know I spent hours doing it on my Rogue) and they had epics you could get from boxes you stole from the enemies. I had two of those jokers in about a month’s time which were selling pretty well. That doesn’t happen in this game. The RNG here is weird lopsided and definitely not Random in the least for some players.

A lot of it has to do with the fact that they have a different definition of RNG here. In other games they use it to prevent inflation. In this game they use it to prevent you from accomplishing anything, having fun, farming or playing how you want. There is a fine line, and I don’t think Anet is even in sight of it yet.

Aeonblade.8709:

tigirius.9014:

They didn’t used to be this way actually when they first released them they were actually quite filled with T6 mats. Now you’re basically screwed. 1-6 1-10 will drop something but nothing of value and definitely not the most rare of items that need the most fixing in the game like dusts or lodestones or any of the items one might actually need for anything.

I keep seeing these pesky RNG posts in response to the OP.

As a response to anyone who keeps saying “That’s not a large enough sample” or “that’s RNG for you” please take a look.

This really doesn’t happen like this in any other game. In WoW for example they had real stealing. ( I know I spent hours doing it on my Rogue) and they had epics you could get from boxes you stole from the enemies. I had two of those jokers in about a month’s time which were selling pretty well. That doesn’t happen in this game. The RNG here is weird lopsided and definitely not Random in the least for some players.

A lot of it has to do with the fact that they have a different definition of RNG here. In other games they use it to prevent inflation. In this game they use it to prevent you from accomplishing anything, having fun, farming or playing how you want. There is a fine line, and I don’t think Anet is even in sight of it yet.

Atually, I don’t think Anet is using RNG to prevent you from having fun or accomplishing anything. I think you and people like you are looking for a type of fun that this game isn’t really designed for, and you’re blaming the game for not matching your personal criteria. No game will be for all people. If you try to make a game for all people, it will naturally fail. This game is already too divided, and as a result, it has less focus than it should.

Unfortunately, the words play your own way are simply taken completely out of context, considering how many times Anet explained it long before the game went on sale. This is what they said (and I’m paraphrasing here).

In most games, the way to get the best gear was to do dungeons, then raid. In Guild Wars 2, they want people to be able to play different ways to get that gear. So in SPvP, well you don’t have to PvE at all to play that. And in WvW, you can get the best armor and weapons without actually doing PvE. And in PvE you can do dungeons, or events to get karma, or buy exotics off the auction house, or craft them.

This is what they meant (and said they meant) by play it your way. It didn’t mean that anything you could conceivably want to do you’ll be able to, because that makes no sense. If you want to stand in Lion’s Arch and do nothing and have everything handed to you…well that’s playing your way so they should allow it, right?

Vayne.8563:

Aeonblade.8709:

tigirius.9014:

They didn’t used to be this way actually when they first released them they were actually quite filled with T6 mats. Now you’re basically screwed. 1-6 1-10 will drop something but nothing of value and definitely not the most rare of items that need the most fixing in the game like dusts or lodestones or any of the items one might actually need for anything.

I keep seeing these pesky RNG posts in response to the OP.

As a response to anyone who keeps saying “That’s not a large enough sample” or “that’s RNG for you” please take a look.

This really doesn’t happen like this in any other game. In WoW for example they had real stealing. ( I know I spent hours doing it on my Rogue) and they had epics you could get from boxes you stole from the enemies. I had two of those jokers in about a month’s time which were selling pretty well. That doesn’t happen in this game. The RNG here is weird lopsided and definitely not Random in the least for some players.

A lot of it has to do with the fact that they have a different definition of RNG here. In other games they use it to prevent inflation. In this game they use it to prevent you from accomplishing anything, having fun, farming or playing how you want. There is a fine line, and I don’t think Anet is even in sight of it yet.

Atually, I don’t think Anet is using RNG to prevent you from having fun or accomplishing anything. I think you and people like you are looking for a type of fun that this game isn’t really designed for, and you’re blaming the game for not matching your personal criteria. No game will be for all people. If you try to make a game for all people, it will naturally fail. This game is already too divided, and as a result, it has less focus than it should.

Unfortunately, the words play your own way are simply taken completely out of context, considering how many times Anet explained it long before the game went on sale. This is what they said (and I’m paraphrasing here).

In most games, the way to get the best gear was to do dungeons, then raid. In Guild Wars 2, they want people to be able to play different ways to get that gear. So in SPvP, well you don’t have to PvE at all to play that. And in WvW, you can get the best armor and weapons without actually doing PvE. And in PvE you can do dungeons, or events to get karma, or buy exotics off the auction house, or craft them.

This is what they meant (and said they meant) by play it your way. It didn’t mean that anything you could conceivably want to do you’ll be able to, because that makes no sense. If you want to stand in Lion’s Arch and do nothing and have everything handed to you…well that’s playing your way so they should allow it, right?

There was no reason to have 4 paragraphs to say “I don’t agree with you.”

We already know you love this game no matter what they do. I don’t want any handouts, I just want to be able to kill things in a game designed around killing things and not be punished for it. Also, getting something for farming hundreds of thousands of karma reliably instead of a .9% chance would be nice too.

Ha you with the ninja edit.

Anyhow the Boxes are fine, or were as of last night.

Aeonblade.8709:

Vayne.8563:

Aeonblade.8709:

tigirius.9014:

They didn’t used to be this way actually when they first released them they were actually quite filled with T6 mats. Now you’re basically screwed. 1-6 1-10 will drop something but nothing of value and definitely not the most rare of items that need the most fixing in the game like dusts or lodestones or any of the items one might actually need for anything.

I keep seeing these pesky RNG posts in response to the OP.

As a response to anyone who keeps saying “That’s not a large enough sample” or “that’s RNG for you” please take a look.

This really doesn’t happen like this in any other game. In WoW for example they had real stealing. ( I know I spent hours doing it on my Rogue) and they had epics you could get from boxes you stole from the enemies. I had two of those jokers in about a month’s time which were selling pretty well. That doesn’t happen in this game. The RNG here is weird lopsided and definitely not Random in the least for some players.

A lot of it has to do with the fact that they have a different definition of RNG here. In other games they use it to prevent inflation. In this game they use it to prevent you from accomplishing anything, having fun, farming or playing how you want. There is a fine line, and I don’t think Anet is even in sight of it yet.

Atually, I don’t think Anet is using RNG to prevent you from having fun or accomplishing anything. I think you and people like you are looking for a type of fun that this game isn’t really designed for, and you’re blaming the game for not matching your personal criteria. No game will be for all people. If you try to make a game for all people, it will naturally fail. This game is already too divided, and as a result, it has less focus than it should.

Unfortunately, the words play your own way are simply taken completely out of context, considering how many times Anet explained it long before the game went on sale. This is what they said (and I’m paraphrasing here).

In most games, the way to get the best gear was to do dungeons, then raid. In Guild Wars 2, they want people to be able to play different ways to get that gear. So in SPvP, well you don’t have to PvE at all to play that. And in WvW, you can get the best armor and weapons without actually doing PvE. And in PvE you can do dungeons, or events to get karma, or buy exotics off the auction house, or craft them.

This is what they meant (and said they meant) by play it your way. It didn’t mean that anything you could conceivably want to do you’ll be able to, because that makes no sense. If you want to stand in Lion’s Arch and do nothing and have everything handed to you…well that’s playing your way so they should allow it, right?

There was no reason to have 4 paragraphs to say “I don’t agree with you.”

We already know you love this game no matter what they do. I don’t want any handouts, I just want to be able to kill things in a game designed around killing things and not be punished for it. Also, getting something for farming hundreds of thousands of karma reliably instead of a .9% chance would be nice too.

YOU were the one who used the line play your way (which many people quote, but continue to misuse).

I was just pointing it out.

tigirius.9014:

Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.

Large data sets aren’t necessary

Large data sets aren’t necessary?

In a roll where certain events can happen 1/1,000 of the time (Source: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lost_Orrian_Jewelry_Box/Drop_rate. All the lodestone are 0.1% or lower) you think 83 rolls is enough to get an accurate distribution? Are you serious?

Ursan.7846:

tigirius.9014:

Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.

Large data sets aren’t necessary

Large data sets aren’t necessary?

In a roll where certain events can happen 1/1,000 of the time (Source: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lost_Orrian_Jewelry_Box/Drop_rate. All the lodestone are 0.1% or lower) you think 83 rolls is enough to get an accurate distribution? Are you serious?

I was going to respond, but thanks Ursan.

I just spent about 2.8m karma with +60% karma boost (yes I forgot about ice cream, infusion, guild buff, and outmanned) opened about 1,600 boxes. The result were decent, 1 of each tonic, 10 of each lodestone, 240 ob stone, 24g worth of unid crap, 14 mini.

Ursan.7846:

tigirius.9014:

Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.

Large data sets aren’t necessary

Large data sets aren’t necessary?

In a roll where certain events can happen 1/1,000 of the time (Source: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lost_Orrian_Jewelry_Box/Drop_rate. All the lodestone are 0.1% or lower) you think 83 rolls is enough to get an accurate distribution? Are you serious?

This is the crux of the difference between salvaging ectos and opening these boxes. Since the success rate is already exceedingly small, to detect a decrease in this rate (which is necessarily also small), you need a much larger sample size to make a statistically significant statement about some kind of change in the rate.

With ectos, the prior rate was about .9 per item and dropped to around .5 per item, making a relatively small sample just fine. However, if we consider the 1/1000 drops from the Lost Orrian Jewelry Box, we would need to open about 3,000 boxes to be 95% assured to get at least one of those drops. As a corollary, we would need a sample slightly higher than that to make any conclusions about a statistically significant change, if there is one.

I appreciate you using my post in the other thread to try to shed light on an issue, but I’m afraid the examples aren’t exactly compatible.

250k karma at +80% → 3 charged lodestones, 2 onyx and 2 corrupted.

Aeonblade.8709:

There was no reason to have 4 paragraphs to say “I don’t agree with you.”

We already know you love this game no matter what they do. I don’t want any handouts, I just want to be able to kill things in a game designed around killing things and not be punished for it. Also, getting something for farming hundreds of thousands of karma reliably instead of a .9% chance would be nice too.

I agree with Aeon. Games are made for players to have fun, mmo’s are made for players to feel rewarded or are you Vayne seriously going to tell us that ascended gear, legendaries, achievements and such aren’t the attempt by the devs to make players feel rewarded for some effort in game? seriously?

The problem isn’t limited to farming. It’s also with the design of DR and just what it does limit and when. It’s with what doesn’t give rewards in place of farming. And it’s also with just what rewards what.
I’ll give you three examples of things they say they want us to do that are not rewarding with loot that’s appropriate to the content:

1. Map Completion = 5 silver and a lower level cosmetic change item that becomes obsolete after you reach level 80. Possibly a green item if you’re lucky which holds a value of 1 silver with a vendor and 1 copper in the TP.
2. Event Mobs = should never been affected by DR but they are, have no idea who thought this was a good idea, but there’s countless hours of footage and documentation of it happening. Nothing drops for most players from these enemies after killing things to get to the event area, and then killing 8-10 mobs (the other design flaw in Orr being that every single mob is considered a Risen thus adds naturally to the DR count on the way there).
3. Exploration Chests = you might get a green if you’re lucky. This is especially bad design when you’ve told players that that jumping puzzle is what you should be doing, or that short puzzle with a Champion mob at the end guarding the chest are what they’d like you to be doing. Most players end up either getting really worthless drops or getting no drops at all (killcredit bug is supposedly gone, but some of us still get 0 drops off champion in any level zone we’re in 100% of the time, not even a blue).

So I’ll say it again. This game isn’t rewarding “enough”. It doesn’t even reward you for the things the devs want you to be doing much less the things that people usually find in these types of mmo’s

tigirius.9014:

So I’ll say it again. This game isn’t rewarding “enough”. It doesn’t even reward you for the things the devs want you to be doing much less the things that people usually find in these types of mmo’s

Sorry to hear. I’m having a great time though, because playing the game is a reward in itself (I PvP/WvW heavily, probably the least “rewarding” aspects of the game, eh?)

But discussion about the game’s reward structure is somewhat off-topic, no? Do you have anything new to contribute to this topic? (Orrian Jewelry Boxes. Any other statistical insights you’d like to share?)

I opened 20 last night and got 1 shard, and a couple of lodestones plus the usual karma and gold converting trakitten

didn’t make me upset. I think it remains to be the least laborious way to get those all so important and profitable lodestones.

Karma is a kitten.

It seems they were nerfed indeed at the same time as the salvage kits.

they are as RNG as they used to be before, i havent noticed anything different, spent 70k karma today and got 2 priests, 3 different lodestones and few shards, didnt feel nerfed, just rng.

Ursan.7846:

tigirius.9014:

Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.

Large data sets aren’t necessary

Large data sets aren’t necessary?

In a roll where certain events can happen 1/1,000 of the time (Source: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lost_Orrian_Jewelry_Box/Drop_rate. All the lodestone are 0.1% or lower) you think 83 rolls is enough to get an accurate distribution? Are you serious?

But with CI testing you can confirm whether or not what you got or didn’t at least fits withing observed data. Of course with such a low observed percentage you can only tell something is off if you got more than one of them with such a small sample.

Has anyone tried these boxes since they fixed the salvage rates yesterday? I haven’t logged in yet today.

I’d like to know because I have limited currency right now.

After what happened to the BLKs, I’m gonna believe everybody with a tinfoil hat now. Funny how people still come up with stochastics without even considering that something may indeed be broken. If you really want to be helpful: stop talking about theory and do some actual research instead, providing real results from a large amount of tries.

Aeonblade.8709:

Also, getting something for farming hundreds of thousands of karma reliably instead of a .9% chance would be nice too.

You deserve as much for farming “hundreds of thousands of karma” as a Skinner’s rat deverses for reliably pressing its cute little lever one hundred times. When you do something that requires skill instead of mindless farming, please let us know.

Erasculio.2914:

Aeonblade.8709:

Also, getting something for farming hundreds of thousands of karma reliably instead of a .9% chance would be nice too.

You deserve as much for farming “hundreds of thousands of karma” as a Skinner’s rat deverses for reliably pressing its cute little lever one hundred times. When you do something that requires skill instead of mindless farming, please let us know.

He didn’t even use the word deserve. You’re just rude, that’s all.

Erasculio.2914:

Aeonblade.8709:

Also, getting something for farming hundreds of thousands of karma reliably instead of a .9% chance would be nice too.

You deserve as much for farming “hundreds of thousands of karma” as a Skinner’s rat deverses for reliably pressing its cute little lever one hundred times. When you do something that requires skill instead of mindless farming, please let us know.

Nothing will require skill in GW2. Because if it does then the reward would have to be better. When the rewards become better it becomes the new farm spot.

So no one’s tried these boxes from Orr or the bags from Laurels since they implemented the patch?

The reason I ask is because since I haven’t been on, I don’t have the currency for them AND I noticed yesterday suddenly I was getting a fair amount of rares unlike what I normally get which is 0. so I’d love to know.