Guild Wars 2

Hi All,

I know this question comes up time and time again – how much does it cost via the mystic forge to make pre-cursors?

Well there has been lots of research on the cost of making these items and most of them are comparable to the RNG forging prices.

There is a website which you may want to check out:
http://gw2profits.com

In some with average RNG – you’ll be > 300g/pre-cursor in profit.
I know it takes some significant gold to play the RNG Route – but will allow you to see how closely the rare prices/exotic prices and ecto salvaging prices are tied to maintain a market.

Have fun !

It could cost you <2-3g (the cost of 4 rares) or 2000-3000g (if you’re seriously screwed by rngesus and dont keep track of what you spent) depending on how your RNG goes. Also, to get this out of the way, not specifically at OP unless they bring up this point, there are no such things as lucky and/or unlucky accounts.

I have heard of someone claimed as ‘lucky’. People give this person gold/weapons and get whatever precursor that supposedly comes out back.

What I am suspicious of is the possibility they hand over a low value precursor they have bought earlier, then pocket the difference.

I won’t say it actually happens as I don’t know. There is no way of telling, but there is always the suspicion.

This site worked with the average drop rates over a longer period of time – some precursors will cost more via the Mystic Forge route – some less over a RNG average.

There is no magic number its pure RnG I used to play the forge a lot and I mean ALOT, ive probably had over 20,000 gold into that thing, and ive had a fair number of pre’s from it, but its complete hit and miss,

1 time I got 3 pre’s in 30 minutes with less than 200gold, another time I put in 2500gold and didn’t get anything out, so the average on that is around 1 pre per 900g

The only pre I never got from the forge even to this day is the Chaos Gun, ( and 2 of the under water ones )

I would say my average is around 1 pre per 500-600g which back in the day was good, with pre prices falling hard its not so much now,

Anet never should have made it that the only way to get a pre was from crafting, they always should have been drops ingame and from forge.

@Aidan Savage, I do believe there are lucky/unlucky accounts, some people I know in this game have had extreme luck, like way off the bounds of what RnG should get you, the only thing I will say is that Anet can never admit to that, as it would single handily destroy there game, as why would you buy an account if it was only ever going to get back RnG, I had to gamble hard for my pre’s other seems to get them fall from enemies all over the game.

TPMN.1483:

This site worked with the average drop rates over a longer period of time – some precursors will cost more via the Mystic Forge route – some less over a RNG average.

yeah, it’s more to identify the best items to throw in, and give you an idea of your return. people that MF precursors for profit know what it’s all about, this just helps identify items for them. It has too high initial gold investment for most people to just pick it up as a way to toss around some extra currency they had floating around with a few throws for the forge. It’s for people who throw in 1,000’s of gold.

[quote=6040103;Aidan Savage.2078:. Also, to get this out of the way, not specifically at OP unless they bring up this point, there are no such things as lucky and/or unlucky accounts.[/quote]

Yes there is—outlier accounts!!!!!

Blude.6812:

Aidan Savage.2078:

. Also, to get this out of the way, not specifically at OP unless they bring up this point, there are no such things as lucky and/or unlucky accounts.

Yes there is—outlier accounts!!!!!

Outliers =/= un/lucky accounts.

Aidan Savage.2078:

Blude.6812:

Aidan Savage.2078:

. Also, to get this out of the way, not specifically at OP unless they bring up this point, there are no such things as lucky and/or unlucky accounts.

Yes there is—outlier accounts!!!!!

Outliers =/= un/lucky accounts.

This.

An outlier is an account which has during the period being recorded had worse than average results from RNG. But that could change at any point. Whereas an unlucky account is (or would be if any existed) an account that will always have bad RNG results.

If you tracked all the drops across all the accounts then after 1,000 drops both an outlier and an unlucky account would have worse than average results, but if you ran the experiment again with another 1,000 drops the outlier would move – they might end up in the middle of the curve or even getting better than average drops.

Whereas an unlucky account would just keep falling further and further behind everyone else because they would always get worse drops.

The problem is that the only way to definitively tell the difference between the two is either to check the code and see that there’s no way for different accounts to get different RNG (which only Anet can do and apparently people don’t trust them when they tell us that they have) or to keep running the experiment so you can track the changes and it’s extremely rare to find player run ‘experiments’ into drops that have enough data for a single statistically significant study, let alone a series of them over time.

The droprate research is good if you have massive amounts of gold and want to make many precursor. If you only want to make one it’s just about luck. You can get one in you first try or have thousands of tries without any precursor. Average drop rates have only value for significantly high enough numbers of tries.

Nugkill is one of the biggest researchers in this area. Here

https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1efwu1/just_some_more_mystic_forge_and_precursor/

is a bit info about his lucky and unlucky stretches. I think not many could have survived a bad stretch with 11,844 rares before a precursor like the one he had to endure.