Guild Wars 2

Fallen Healer Hun.9638:

Neither me, nor him wont craft and put in into MF hundreds of rares,
he simply puts his dropped yellows from into MF.

I didn’t said i have problem with the current RNG system and I didn’t think it’s broken,
just wanted to point out the thing is happening and exists, as Tom said earlier:

“True randomness means there needs to be some extremely “unlucky” streaks, and some extremely “lucky” streaks. If there weren’t, it would not be truly random.”

and I think it would be great to make the RNG like he mentioned:

“Finally, I would like to say true randomness in an MMO probably isn’t the best way of handling progression and loot. A good system would be random, but would also include a so-called “streak-killer” algorithm, that would cut (at least) bad streaks eventually, guaranteeing a “hit” after enough “misses”.

Fair enough, I agree with the need for alternative to pure RNG, that’s why I think the coming precursor collection is a good idea (will need to wait to judge the execution though).

However, if the title of your thread says “Lucky account is a thing” then you imply you don’t believe the RNG is working as it should, so that’s the sentiment I got when coming into this thread.

Sometimes I wonder if the last 4 number on our accounts is the seed for the random number generator. If that’s the case it’s still random… but we are just stuck with the seed that was randomly generated forever. They might be lucky and unlucky seeds. There is no such thing as a perfect RNG generator. Just equations and theorems that give the appearance of random.

Whether they are random or not, Precursors are not worth any of the time and money required to actively pursue them. At the end of the day, either you got a meaningless lucky drop that marked the beginning of a month long task to actually make the weapon “legendary”, or you paid > 100 dollars in gems / gold for it.

None of those actions makes the wielder special. or are hallmarks of the user’s dedication, skill, or overall competence, so it may as well be “some accounts are lucky.”

We’re getting a guaranteed way to get precursors…I just hope the collections for each of the precursors doesn’t rely too heavily on RNG.

We have a guildie that at last count had pulled 35 precursors from the Forge. He used a very specific recipe: 3 exotic weapons of any type, level 70 and above, with one mystic forge stone. For each pull he consumed 3 exotics, but got one back in return, so net loss of 2 exotics. With this recipe the mystic forge stone makes the draw random — you can throw in 3 foci or shields and have a chance to get a greatsword precursor in return. Following this recipe we had one guildie receive a precursor after 32 pulls, another after 49 pulls, and one that said they didn’t keep track but did eventually get the hammer precursor.

The best I can say of the one who got so many precursor is he tossed a LOT of stuff into the forge, and he ended up VERY wealthy.

I’ve personally just started the process and I’m up to 13 pulls doing just one or two a day and no luck so far, but I’m a patient type person… It’ll happen eventually.

Mireles Lore.5942:

Sometimes I wonder if the last 4 number on our accounts is the seed for the random number generator. If that’s the case it’s still random… but we are just stuck with the seed that was randomly generated forever. They might be lucky and unlucky seeds. There is no such thing as a perfect RNG generator. Just equations and theorems that give the appearance of random.

Wonder no more. John Smith has confirmed that absolutely nothing related to your account in any way shape or form determines or influences your “luck” other than your “Magic Find” stat.

I’d link you the quote, but I’m busy right now. You can look through John’s or my post history to find it though (I’ve linked it a few times).

EDIT: I broke down and found the quote: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/I-have-a-question-about-the-economy/page/15#post4487484

mtpelion.4562:

Mireles Lore.5942:

Sometimes I wonder if the last 4 number on our accounts is the seed for the random number generator. If that’s the case it’s still random… but we are just stuck with the seed that was randomly generated forever. They might be lucky and unlucky seeds. There is no such thing as a perfect RNG generator. Just equations and theorems that give the appearance of random.

Wonder no more. John Smith has confirmed that absolutely nothing related to your account in any way shape or form determines or influences your “luck” other than your “Magic Find” stat.

I’d link you the quote, but I’m busy right now. You can look through John’s or my post history to find it though (I’ve linked it a few times).

EDIT: I broke down and found the quote: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/I-have-a-question-about-the-economy/page/15#post4487484

And there is also this…

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

I had none. Ever.

Remember the Ancient Karka chest?

That thing was supposed to give two exotics and two rares. Many people got precursos.

I got ONE rare level 78 and ONE exotic level 76. And that was my first exotic drop ever.

I don’t know if unlucky accounts exist or not. But if there is such thing, by account must be a black hole of bad luck.

Khal Drogo.9631:

Since we are on the subject, why do some single player non online games with RNG have the same results immediately after loading / save skitten, and different when some additional action or turn is taken?

Beautiful explanation right here:
http://tasvideos.org/LuckManipulation.html

BTW, some excellent game-‘play’ vids here.

pdavis.8031:

And there is also this…

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

That’s not a good one to quote as it contradicts itself. Streaks and outliers are essentially accounts being stuck.

Essence Snow.3194:

pdavis.8031:

And there is also this…

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

That’s not a good one to quote as it contradicts itself. Streaks and outliers are essentially accounts being stuck.

But those “stuck” accounts arent pre-determined and they could become unstuck with the next roll.

They may and then again they may not. The best forecast of future occurrences we have is the past.

Essence Snow.3194:

pdavis.8031:

And there is also this…

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

That’s not a good one to quote as it contradicts itself. Streaks and outliers are essentially accounts being stuck.

As wanze pointed out, an account can get “unstuck” the very next roll. However what this quote does show is that there are no “lucky” accounts. (That is accounts who have been determined to be more “lucky” than any other).

i am one of the “lucky accounts” to some people as ive had 10 precursers on my account now 8 being form the MF. to do this though i mf all green weapons and all yellow weapons and since my last precurser about 2 weeks ago ive started saving exotics ive unlocked skins off to put in also. i do sometimes see patters in the mf like if im gonna put 10 rounds off greens in some days it goes g,y,g,g,y,y,g,y somtimes i can put 100 trys and only get 2 yellows so i always try and put yellows back in on the times im getitng more yellows then green and this is the method i used to get my precurser, if your on a lucky streak i sergest abuseing it as much as possible and also straight after and befor patch seams tobe the best times which has always lead me to beleave the RNG system is used against uptime/server time were as some hours give higher chance of better drops.

pdavis.8031:

Essence Snow.3194:

pdavis.8031:

And there is also this…

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

That’s not a good one to quote as it contradicts itself. Streaks and outliers are essentially accounts being stuck.

As wanze pointed out, an account can get “unstuck” the very next roll. However what this quote does show is that there are no “lucky” accounts. (That is accounts who have been determined to be more “lucky” than any other).

What it shows is that “they” believe there are no accounts determined (prior to rng) to be luckier or unluckier, but there are, in actuality, accounts that are luckier and unluckier. That’s what ouliers in this scenario are.

So what is it about these outliers (admitted to exist) to become so? The RNG algorithm correct? So the RNG algorithm determines that some accounts become outliers.

Draknar.5748:

Sort of. There’s the one set of odds you’re talking about “what is the probability the 8th flip is heads”—that is 1/2, yes. But then there’s a different set of odds: “what is the probability you will get 8 heads in a row”. That is not 50%. That would be (1/2)^8 or ~.4% probability that heads will land 8 times in a row on a coin flip. While each flip can be considered independent of each other, probability is based on the larger set of data. It can happen that you get 8 heads in a row, but it is certainly not common.

Yes, the chance of 8 heads in a row is 1 out of 256. The flip side of that is that for any specific string of 8 coin flips, the chance is exactly the same, 1 in 256.

HHHHHHHH = 1/256
HTHTHTHT = 1/256
HHTHTTTH = 1/256

Whats my point? That 8 heads in a row is nothing special. But because the human mind is really good at finding patterns, we want to attach some special significance to it.

I have little doubt that RNG is working perfectly fine as designed and coded. There’s a decent amount of evidence* showing that in aggregate over the entire game, precursors drop at a fairly steady, predictable rate from the MF.

That doesn’t mean that the actual design is “fair” or “good”, though. That’s a whole different question – and you can’t answer that question by looking at the math. I am not at all a fan of RNG being used for the extremely low chance events that we’ve got currently. Luckily, when HoT comes out, this will be a mostly moot issue as we’re being given a guaranteed way to acquire precursors.

So back to the topic – which is effectively statistics. The largest and most reliable datasets I’ve seen on mystic forge precursor drops put the chance of getting a precursor by putting 4 sufficiently high level rares into the forge is somewhere around 1 in 800 attempts*. That is an extremely small chance – so in order to get a typical and reliable distribution curve requires tens of thousands of attempts. A normal player, even putting every rare they get into the forge is unlikely to reach that threshhold – in other words, any single player’s (or even a small group’s) experience is not likely to match the aggregate of all players.

(*This is why TP data is useful for seeing the aggregate. So some people have kept track of large numbers of attempts and given us 1/800 or so. So one data point is that putting 3200 rares into the forge will give out 1 precursor. In the attempts 2400 rares are destroyed[4 rares in, 1 rare/exotic/precursor out]. If we then compare that expected rate to TP prices, we see that it holds up. Once you factor in TP costs and profit taking, the most desired precursors and prices of high level rares track very close to that expected rate. If there was some bug either raising or lowering that rate, it is not reflected in the TP.)

You are all forgetting one thing. People, (in particular gamers) are ego driven, and they want you to think about them all the time, it validates their existance.

I have a guild mate who I see logging in about 4 times a week for a couple hours, but each time he does he boasts finding this item, and that item, the whole guild is in awe of this person for his amazing luck. – They practically worship him.

I happen to know he is full of crap.

I could show you how I get a precurser everyday, at great expence to myself. Truth is, that expense isnt that great for others. If it sounds too good to be true, it is probably a fabrication of the truth.

Essence Snow.3194:

pdavis.8031:

Essence Snow.3194:

pdavis.8031:

And there is also this…

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

That’s not a good one to quote as it contradicts itself. Streaks and outliers are essentially accounts being stuck.

As wanze pointed out, an account can get “unstuck” the very next roll. However what this quote does show is that there are no “lucky” accounts. (That is accounts who have been determined to be more “lucky” than any other).

What it shows is that “they” believe there are no accounts determined (prior to rng) to be luckier or unluckier, but there are, in actuality, accounts that are luckier and unluckier. That’s what ouliers in this scenario are.

So what is it about these outliers (admitted to exist) to become so? The RNG algorithm correct? So the RNG algorithm determines that some accounts become outliers.

True, while some accounts do become outliers, but RNG being RNG these accounts do not always remain outliers. While there may be a streak, by the nature of RNG that streak cannot last. Thus all accounts have the possibility of being outliers and it’s not limited to just certain accounts.

I will just sit on the street, besides Hobo-tron, and ask fellow adventurers to donate me a Spark. Probably, I will get it sooner this way.

Tamasan.6457:

Draknar.5748:

Sort of. There’s the one set of odds you’re talking about “what is the probability the 8th flip is heads”—that is 1/2, yes. But then there’s a different set of odds: “what is the probability you will get 8 heads in a row”. That is not 50%. That would be (1/2)^8 or ~.4% probability that heads will land 8 times in a row on a coin flip. While each flip can be considered independent of each other, probability is based on the larger set of data. It can happen that you get 8 heads in a row, but it is certainly not common.

Yes, the chance of 8 heads in a row is 1 out of 256. The flip side of that is that for any specific string of 8 coin flips, the chance is exactly the same, 1 in 256.

HHHHHHHH = 1/256
HTHTHTHT = 1/256
HHTHTTTH = 1/256

Whats my point? That 8 heads in a row is nothing special. But because the human mind is really good at finding patterns, we want to attach some special significance to it.

For all intensive purposes any combination of an odds is essentially the same thing no?
Example:
There are 16 possibilities of 1/8
THHHHHHH, HTHHHHHH, HHTHHHHH, HHHTHHHH, HHHHTHHH, HHHHHHTHH, HHHHHHHTH, HHHHHHHT, HTTTTTTT, THTTTTTT, TTHTTTTT, TTTHTTTT, TTTTHTTT, TTTTHTTT, TTTTTHTT, TTTTTTHT, and TTTTTTTH
There are only 2 possibilities of 8/8 HHHHHHHH and TTTTTTTT

It’s why the bell curve is a bell ya?

These players have the money to attempt probably 500% more then you. Thats why its snowballing for them. Once you get one or two you generally can use the gold from them to get 1-2 more and still hold a profit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generation

True Random number generation in computers can be difficult, if not impossible to achieve currently. If Anet is employing some of the more commonly used methods, it could theoretically be possible to “cheat” the system and get better odds at success. In its simplest form, if pressing forge at exactly 1.98 seconds after the minute gives a higher seed value, then you would have a greater chance at the precursor, or pressing forge at exactly 8.765843 seconds gives the highest value, instant pre. This would be pretty difficult to pull off.

A more likely scenario is that they are simply throwing more kittens in the forge than a sane person should do. Or somewhere deep in the RNG code, Anet made the mistake of basing part of the equation on a value in the character file. Can’t remember the exact incident, but another mmo had that problem. Aggro range was random, but they messed up and based the rng off of a piece of data in the character file, so some characters could aggro everything no matter who/what was currently attempting to fight the mobs.

Tom Gore.4035:

But since it seems you don’t understand randomness or standard distribution, let’s try to reason with you, then.

Could you tell me, from a business perspective, why would Anet EVER want to assign some accounts with extremely bad luck and some accounts with extremely good luck? Tell me ONE way that would make any sense.

Because that would be a surefire way to lose BOTH players. One would quit because he already got everything in the game quickly and has nothing to look forward to. Other would quit because he didn’t get anything and felt betrayed.

If anything, PREVENTING that from happening would be the only smart business decision, but as it happens, we know that they are not fudging with the RNG. It’s just RNG at its best (and worst).

I think someone has explained this before but….

This RNG system might be designed this way solely as a means to put precursors on the market. If you are one of those people (1-3%) who get multiple precursors every month, you will most likely not have the time to turn them all into Legendaries. So you will most likely put them on the TP to sell them. You will have the money from the precursors and expensive exos to sell them easily.

While that is going on, you have the other half of the spectrum where players will never get one as a random occurrence. These players with such an amazingly extreme “unlucky streak” will be more likely to breakdown and spend money to get a precursor because the thought of a player getting all the precursors is not only unfair but aggravating. This aggravation will motivate players to pull out the credit card.

I would like to point out to everyone that randomness is the definition of chaos. Nobody in the history of forever has successfully put chaos into numbers simply because numbers are a form of order. A simple number generation machine will eventually produce a noticeable bell curve. (the reason why I say bellcurve is because the results usually average out to the medium and I’ve seen this in action many times.)

So instead of assuming that this game’s loot table is purely RNG, it is better to think that there are some mechanisms within the code that intentionally produce these instances of “rare extremely lucky” and “commonplace extremely unlucky”. Because it is a very real thing.

Aeolus.3615:

get the stuff, give to your friend and ask him/her to pull a miracle from the mystic toillet.

I will certainly try that , who knows

BrotherBelial.3094:

Fallen Healer Hun.9638:

My Guildmate had his 10th or 11th precursor this weekend, simply logged in for an our, dropped his yellows into the forge. he doesnt even remember it’s name, because in the last half year he got one every month, so precursor is a pretty common thing to him.

I had one, Venom, almost 2 years ago

In our guild, with 30 ppl, there are not one other, with this luck.

Anyone has similar experiences?

(Yes, I’m jealous)

Or they are just linking them in guild chat to troll you.

Unfortunately don’t, he has 4 or more legendaries, he made it from farm/sold the other precursors, if I remember well, theres Quip, Incinerator,The Dreamer and Kudzu.

using chat codes is easy.

Tamasan.6457:

Draknar.5748:

Sort of. There’s the one set of odds you’re talking about “what is the probability the 8th flip is heads”—that is 1/2, yes. But then there’s a different set of odds: “what is the probability you will get 8 heads in a row”. That is not 50%. That would be (1/2)^8 or ~.4% probability that heads will land 8 times in a row on a coin flip. While each flip can be considered independent of each other, probability is based on the larger set of data. It can happen that you get 8 heads in a row, but it is certainly not common.

Yes, the chance of 8 heads in a row is 1 out of 256. The flip side of that is that for any specific string of 8 coin flips, the chance is exactly the same, 1 in 256.

HHHHHHHH = 1/256
HTHTHTHT = 1/256
HHTHTTTH = 1/256

Whats my point? That 8 heads in a row is nothing special. But because the human mind is really good at finding patterns, we want to attach some special significance to it.

It is special if you are asking about a specific outcome. In your examples you are listing a specific outcome. As in, what are the odds, that in 8 coin flips, that they will land in this exact order HTHTHTHT. That’s why it is the same probability as HHHHHHHH. You’re thinking of it as being random, but you’re actually asking about a specific order of coin flips in your examples. Which makes it as unlikely as getting all heads.

The probability of flipping a coin 8 times and having them land in completely random order is obviously a much higher probability than asking what the probability is that it will land in a very specific order HHHTTTHH, TTHHTHTH, whatever really. But in order for it to be that 1/256, the coin flips need to land in the exact order you are wanting to see. Otherwise we aren’t talking about probability really.

So essentially in your example, it would be like writing down on a piece of paper what you predict the next 8 coin flips will be, then flipping a coin and actually trying to get them in that order. Even if it is just alternating HTHTHTHT, it’s actually pretty difficult to get them to land in that specific sequence. As difficult as getting HHHHHHHH as you pointed out.

But now we’re off topic lol

In response to this thread and the mathematicians lurking around, has it ever occurred that the algorithm might not be perfect? I’m sure RNG in MMOs (notwithstanding single player games too) have complicated algorithms that can be faulty – it’s not just a matter of theory, after all, it’s a matter of code as well.

I have read so much kitten in this thread and not a single one brings up applicable fault, instead taking extremism to the fullest with theoretical outcomes and any offset of a theoretical outcome is as absurd as thinking ANet management is handpicking winners. Newsflash: not all implementation is perfect. I think that, theoretically, monsters shouldn’t get stuck inside a rock either and “obstructed” from my ranged attacks, but it happens because coding anything isn’t perfect.

Khal Drogo.9631:

Since we are on the subject, why do some single player non online games with RNG have the same results immediately after loading

God this has always bothered me. In BioShock 1 there are some slot machines and you’re more likely to get jackpot in the first few rolls even though it’s supposed to be “random” it almost always yields a jackpot when you close the client and reopen it but if you throw $600 into the machine you’re lucky to get even 4 jackpots.

I can only speak for myself, but I do not claim the RNG in this game is 100% perfect. Unless my knowledge is outdated, it is not possible to create “perfect” RNG by coding (or by extension any human means). I can only assume that if the imperfection were large enough to be noticeable (statistically, not in anecdotes), Anet would already be aware of this. And if it were really big, the players themselves would be able to show it by pooling the data of people who have had a relatively large amount of attempts.

I have no proof of anything regarding faulty RNG algorithms or “un/lucky seeds,” but I really have to wonder. I started playing at launch, and except for a 4-month break in the middle, have played heavily: dungeon runs, world boss trains, WvW, EotM, FGS champ trains — pretty much everything except fractals (I never cared for those).

And since launch, I’ve looted exactly 13 exotics. Not precursors, exotics. These threads always amaze me.

Spiral Architect.6540:

I have no proof of anything regarding faulty RNG algorithms or “un/lucky seeds,” but I really have to wonder. I started playing at launch, and except for a 4-month break in the middle, have played heavily: dungeon runs, world boss trains, WvW, EotM, FGS champ trains — pretty much everything except fractals (I never cared for those).

And since launch, I’ve looted exactly 13 exotics. Not precursors, exotics. These threads always amaze me.

Either you’re flat-out lying, or you have a very different definition of “playing heavily” than I do. How in the hell can you have been doing all of that and only gotten 13 exotics the whole time?

Well, call me a liar if it makes you feel better, but I know what the truth is.

I guess “playing heavily” has different definitions. I have a full-time job, so I don’t play all day. Usually a few hours in the evening, a bit longer on weekends. Sometimes I wake up early and play a couple of hours if I can’t get back to sleep. Maybe that’s not “playing heavily.” It seems like a fair amount to me, though.

Spiral Architect.6540:

Well, call me a liar if it makes you feel better, but I know what the truth is.

I guess “playing heavily” has different definitions. I have a full-time job, so I don’t play all day. Usually a few hours in the evening, a bit longer on weekends. Sometimes I wake up early and play a couple of hours if I can’t get back to sleep. Maybe that’s not “playing heavily.” It seems like a fair amount to me, though.

But you’re also comparing your drops to people who have the time to play all day.

You have say 10 chances to get an exotic. The people you’re comparing to have 100 chances. They’re going to get more exotics on average than you are. Just out of sheer chances.

I don’t think you’re lying. Although i did a ton of Scarlett invasion wish yielded a nice chuck of Exotics, but in general i’ve gotten very few, maybe a couple dozen.

Galespark.7835:

I can only assume that if the imperfection were large enough to be noticeable (statistically, not in anecdotes), Anet would already be aware of this.

It might also be in a direct conflict with DR. Since we don’t see drop tables we have no relative comparison of what should happen.

Spiral Architect.6540:

I have no proof of anything regarding faulty RNG algorithms or “un/lucky seeds,” but I really have to wonder. I started playing at launch, and except for a 4-month break in the middle, have played heavily: dungeon runs, world boss trains, WvW, EotM, FGS champ trains — pretty much everything except fractals (I never cared for those).

And since launch, I’ve looted exactly 13 exotics. Not precursors, exotics. These threads always amaze me.

I used to play quite often, especially when I was mapping on all of my characters (three – so many slots, right?) and I stopped being active for a long time and now I’m active daily to get the daily chest (but not for very long unless the 10AP seems absurdly easy to achieve)…and all I can say is since I started playing less, I see a lot better drops. Just this week I’ve gotten 3 runes of the Traveler and 26 ectos in 5 days across maybe 4-6 hours.

Lazaar.9123:

Why has there been so many conspiracy theorists active lately?

Because people like to believe that their bad luck is something that other people do to them (and thus it can be changed if they shout loud enough). It’s just more comforting for them if they have someone else to blame.

Khal Drogo.9631:

Well if the chances of each possibility is equal, then you should have an equal distribution in a large sample.

No. What you get is so called gaussian (or normal) distribution, which is definitely not equal.

Cuddy.6247:

In response to this thread and the mathematicians lurking around, has it ever occurred that the algorithm might not be perfect?

Yes. But then i think, that with the huge numbers of forges happening every day, if there was some significant deviation from the expected results, the pattern would be glaringly apparent. Since it is not, i can safely assume that even if a flaw in the algorithm exists, it is not significant enough to be a problem.

Cuddy.6247:

I used to play quite often, especially when I was mapping on all of my characters (three – so many slots, right?) and I stopped being active for a long time and now I’m active daily to get the daily chest (but not for very long unless the 10AP seems absurdly easy to achieve)…and all I can say is since I started playing less, I see a lot better drops. Just this week I’ve gotten 3 runes of the Traveler and 26 ectos in 5 days across maybe 4-6 hours.

If you haven’t played for a long time, it’s no wonder you get better drops now – it has nothing to do however with your playing time now, and a lot to do with the fact that drops were generally improved compared to the first year of the game.

aspirine.6852:

Olvendred.3027:

Lazaar.9123:

Why has there been so many conspiracy theorists active lately?

It’s well known that instead of coding the one loot table for everyone, games developers prefer to spend vast amounts of time making fiendishly complicated systems so that some of their players get better stuff than others. Accounts of this are always supported by large quantities of well-documented evidence, which takes into account all other factors that might be influential, so there’s really very little doubt about it.

On the other hand it’s pretty obvious that if someone gets 11 pre-cursors, and others who play everyday since release and got nothing. That there might be something wrong with the rng system.

Not if those others are like me. I’ve played almost every day since launch, but I’ve put maybe 30 rares into the Forge in total so it’s hardly surprising I’ve never gotten a precursor.