Guild Wars 2

So today two people in my guild threw around 10-20 rares into the mystic forge and got each 1 precursors. This isnt the first time this have happened to them as that seems to be their main source of income rather than grinding or doing dungeons. I just cannot understand how this happens. I have talked to them and they actually have less MF than me, and yet after having put god know how many rares into that kitten ed toilet nothing of real value comes out! Is there a certain trick to this magical toilet? or is it all simply based on the random rng who for some reason seem to favor the same players over and over while completely ignoring someone else?

When a person in the time of a week manage to get 5 precursors out of the forge and at that not even using 100 gold to do it, while others use close to 400-500 gold in there and not get anything… there has to be something WRONG with it… at least that is my opinion!

Precursor acquisition is rather broken atm, and some people have proven to have better luck than others. Idk the system,. but I too have seen people get them quite easily even though I have done countless temples, dungeons, and world events in general.

It’s a broken system that’s abused by those who know they have the luck. Not saying they’re hackers, but that’s the outcome of this kitten.

I’ve spent countless gold in the mystic forge trying to get a precursor. I actually got so mad one day that I deleted a few of my characters and put all of their items in the guild bank…. and I haven’t been back since except to check in on the game every once in awhile.

Just the mere fact that the mystic forge was included at release shows me that Anet really doesn’t have any idea how bad the RNG system is broken. The RNG in this game works like this: If you are lucky, you are lucky for the rest of your gaming days. If you are not lucky, then you will receive practically nothing for the rest of your gaming days. That’s my opinion on this.

Galtrix.7369:

Just the mere fact that the mystic forge was included at release shows me that Anet really doesn’t have any idea how bad the RNG system is broken. The RNG in this game works like this: If you are lucky, you are lucky for the rest of your gaming days. If you are not lucky, then you will receive practically nothing for the rest of your gaming days. That’s my opinion on this.

Many people in my guild say I’m foolish to npc my greens or salvage my yellows. I say, “have you seen my luck? I get nothing”. Some people really don’t understand this rng kitten and its horrible feedback. It’s not rewarding at all, and furthermore it serves no purpose other than a gold sink. I can have 1000 more hours than some random new comer and they will have a better chance at a precursor from the mystic toilet than me. That’s not to say all new comers will have that luck, but even 1 person having a better shot than me with less effort is terrible enough. Playtime shouldn’t equal better stats, well legendary precursor’s aren’t stat boosts. I’ve played well enough to earn at least 1 precursor.

Magic find doesn’t affect the forge.

NinjaEd.3946:

Galtrix.7369:

Just the mere fact that the mystic forge was included at release shows me that Anet really doesn’t have any idea how bad the RNG system is broken. The RNG in this game works like this: If you are lucky, you are lucky for the rest of your gaming days. If you are not lucky, then you will receive practically nothing for the rest of your gaming days. That’s my opinion on this.

Many people in my guild say I’m foolish to npc my greens or salvage my yellows. I say, “have you seen my luck? I get nothing”. Some people really don’t understand this rng kitten and its horrible feedback. It’s not rewarding at all, and furthermore it serves no purpose other than a gold sink. I can have 1000 more hours than some random new comer and they will have a better chance at a precursor from the mystic toilet than me. That’s not to say all new comers will have that luck, but even 1 person having a better shot than me with less effort is terrible enough. Playtime shouldn’t equal better stats, well legendary precursor’s aren’t stat boosts. I’ve played well enough to earn at least 1 precursor.

I’ve dumped at least 2k rares into the MF and haven’t even gotten a good exotic. The last straw was when my friend had just hit level 80, and a couple of days later was running Arah and got a precursor drop. He literally put about 100 hours into the game where I put in close to 2,500 hours. I never used the Mystic Forge again after that.

I’ve been playing since release, and spent about a month doing two mystic forge combines on rare greatswords a day (total of ~480 greatswords), nothing. So I decided to just save up my money. After more than a year I have 650g, still not enough for a competitive buy order for Dusk. I can’t grind for hours a day like some people, and for a while the price of Dusk was going up faster than I could earn money.

Doesn’t it seem weird that a guy who’s been playing for a few weeks might, through random chance, have an item drop that’s worth more than what I’ve been able to save up in a year? I’m not a game designer but that doesn’t seem right to me.

Wow. 8 comments and not one person in yet to condescendingly claim “It’s just RNG” or to accuse you of “your sample size is too small”.

The RNG Acolytes are losing their grip.

There was another NCsoft game which abused RNG for top-tier/valued items. I remember thinking at the time that the idiotic idea for such a system was a fluke of game design which would likely never occur again. It alienated and decimated the population.

However that game didnt offer you the chance of real world money to try and try again…

Sometimes I am tempted to use the MF, when using it is one of the daily achievements. However, I have been sucked in too often. I’m sure I’ve spent about 300g for rares/exotics to throw into it and never got anything good out of it. So now, I must remind myself to never use it, as I am one of those “unlucky” accounts.

Thankfully, I have seen my mob drops get better at least from increasing my MF (at 119%) and using MF boosters. The first year I played I never saw one exotic, and barely any rares. Now I’m getting rares often and exotics maybe 1 or 2 times a week; some “good”, some no so good.

Almost a thousand hours into the game and have never seen a precursor. I have come to the conclusion that if I ever did want a legendary weapon I would farm enough gold to just buy the thing, because at least I KNOW I can do that.

Edit: I also spent the first year actually playing the game and not “farming” to be fair. I started doing the FGS champ train and nightly reset world boss train, which has increased my “good” drops exponentially.

Ortumbra.7490:

A lot of people think that the rng in guild wars is similar to the wi-flag that happened in Asheron’s Call in the early 2000s, where some people just have better odds than others in the rng system based on their character data. The only problem being that if this is the case, then A-net either doesn’t know how to fix it, doesn’t care enough to fix it, or doesn’t know if their rng is even affected or not by wi-flag. For those that don’t know what wi-flag is, here is an article explaining it: http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag.

While there may very well be some sort of bug in the RNG algorithm that Arena.net uses, there are two issues that make it difficult for me (or anyone) to empirically say “yes, there is.”

1) The % that a precursor is generated is so low that the sample size needed to prove that it truly is more than dumb luck is likely never going to be reached within a feasible amount of time.

2) People have a natural tendency to exaggerate just what they put in to do something. Perception muddies the numbers, if you will. Claims of “I got 5 precursors in like… 10 tries” and someone who says, “I’ve put 10000g worth of rares into the Forge and got nothing!” probably aren’t being exactly accurate. Without actual measurement of who has put in what and for how long, the testamonials that have been cited in these forums would not pass statistical muster.

The Wi-Flag demonstrated in the link is a case where there was something that was supposed to behave one way, but was demonstrably behaving in a completely different way. Someone could quite clearly point at it and say, “Yeah, that’s not how it’s supposed to work.”

In THIS case… the Mystic Forge and precursor hunt by the very percentages we know, is SUPPOSED to leave the majority of players frustrated by it. The numbers suggest you AREN’T going to get one very quickly or easily. That there are outlying data points is not particularly unusual, nor is there any evidence to believe there are more outlying points than there really should be.

Ortumbra.7490:

A lot of people think that the rng in guild wars is similar to the wi-flag that happened in Asheron’s Call in the early 2000s, where some people just have better odds than others in the rng system based on their character data. The only problem being that if this is the case, then A-net either doesn’t know how to fix it, doesn’t care enough to fix it, or doesn’t know if their rng is even affected or not by wi-flag. For those that don’t know what wi-flag is, here is an article explaining it: http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag.

All three of those. If it has gone on for a year without Anet doing anything about it, I think it’s safe to say that all three of those things are occurring.

People do not understand the concept of variance. A lesson in probability theory would help.

Lotteries are fair. From an ex-ante point of view everyone has the same chances for the prize. Further, it’s safe to assume that precursors are reasonable priced, reflecting the true chances of the gamble with a little mark-up due to risk averse individuals.

Is random. Stop the conspiracy.

Yonarq.1072:

Is random. Stop the conspiracy.

Couldnt agree more. Hate all these people blaming the Mystic Forge their misfortune. Getting a precursor out of the MF is a 1/x % chance. Some people get very lucky, some dont. The majority doesnt get lucky, thats why it’s not smart to try and get it out of the MF. If you’re still stupid enough to try it after 400g+, you have no one but yourself to blame. Seriously, do a little research before trying to get your precursor, there are countless forums telling you it’s not smart to try and get it from the MF.

MaxTheWrecker.5832:

Yonarq.1072:

Is random. Stop the conspiracy.

Couldnt agree more. Hate all these people blaming the Mystic Forge their misfortune. Getting a precursor out of the MF is a 1/x % chance. Some people get very lucky, some dont. The majority doesnt get lucky, thats why it’s not smart to try and get it out of the MF. If you’re still stupid enough to try it after 400g+, you have no one but yourself to blame. Seriously, do a little research before trying to get your precursor, there are countless forums telling you it’s not smart to try and get it from the MF.

I’ve seen posts in the past that claim to of spent more money trying to get a precursor from the MF than buying it whole from the trade post. If that were true, then said person is a kitten.

Point being, the mf isn’t entirely rng where everyone has the same chance. Some people have much better chance at it than others, the luck itself appears to be RNG and that’s disgusting. I’ve even seen posts of people telling others “pay this person and they will get you a precursor”. If that seriously was true, then they should just reset all loot and start over. I’m almost 3k hours play time and havn’t gotten 1 precursor, think it’s safe to say I will never get 1 because time invested = no reward. Not even skin reward, nothing. You get nothing for playing long hours if you’re an unlucky account.

NinjaEd.3946:

MaxTheWrecker.5832:

Yonarq.1072:

Is random. Stop the conspiracy.

Couldnt agree more. Hate all these people blaming the Mystic Forge their misfortune. Getting a precursor out of the MF is a 1/x % chance. Some people get very lucky, some dont. The majority doesnt get lucky, thats why it’s not smart to try and get it out of the MF. If you’re still stupid enough to try it after 400g+, you have no one but yourself to blame. Seriously, do a little research before trying to get your precursor, there are countless forums telling you it’s not smart to try and get it from the MF.

I’ve seen posts in the past that claim to of spent more money trying to get a precursor from the MF than buying it whole from the trade post. If that were true, then said person is a kitten.

Point being, the mf isn’t entirely rng where everyone has the same chance. Some people have much better chance at it than others, the luck itself appears to be RNG and that’s disgusting. I’ve even seen posts of people telling others “pay this person and they will get you a precursor”. If that seriously was true, then they should just reset all loot and start over. I’m almost 3k hours play time and havn’t gotten 1 precursor, think it’s safe to say I will never get 1 because time invested = no reward. Not even skin reward, nothing. You get nothing for playing long hours if you’re an unlucky account.

In my opinion, its all speculation, and untill its proven with solid numbers, i wont believe it. I wont believe something just because i few people are angry and claiming its all RNG based.

Within the last year I’ve seen 6-7 precursors all from the forge. All using exotics in order to get them. Out of those I got lucky once and got the hammer after only 20 Exos. All the others took 450+g to get them out of the forge. Very little if any profit in it for me. That 1 lucky one allowed me to make the rest of them, eventually I lost all of it dumping 700g into making daggers to get that precursor.

What upsets me the most about it all is that it seems to be the same persons that get the precursors! I know for a fact that she has had at least 7 precursor drops in the last MONTH. Which i was present in JP’s. I do to to twenty jps a day and all i ever get are greens and blues and after 172 days of doing this i have gotten 1 rare…. 1 RARE! She doesnt really do many jps and prefer to spend her time in wvw or in dungeons. It is the fact that some people seems by the fact that they are the ones getting the precursors that only a handful of people are actually ‘lucky’ enough to get them. RNG (which is a system i loathe more than math and my ex girlfriend) or not, it just seems wierd to me that the same people keep getting the best loot over and over and over again while some people have clocked several thousand hours trying daily to get it and yet havent seen a singel one.

Started when the game launched.
Farmed Orr like nobody’s business from September’12 to January’13
Farmed Fractal till Lv35
Forged countless rare and exotic and green and blues that dropped from boss from Feb-June
Bought >200g worth of rare (all greatswords), to further forge
Bought >400g worth of exotic (random cheap exotic weapons), to further forge

I have no Precursor to show for it. So you are not alone…

However, the last few days I was mulling quitting since after a year+ I got no precursor. But I decided, to just not rely on luck, and take control of the situation. This is taken today, when I looked at my BLTP…

For those who need a bit of information about how RNG works in general:

I will simplify greatly for clarity’s sake.

Let’s say that the given ratio is 1 chance out of 500 that you will get a precursor. This does not mean that if you try 500 times, you should at least get 1 precursor. This means that every time you try, you have the same 1 in 500 chance. Your chances don’t “improve” with more tries.

Similar to rolling a die and expecting to get a 6. You have a 1 in 6 chance. If you roll a 4, that doesn’t mean that the 4 is taken out of rotation so that you will not get it again. You might roll another 4 on the very next try, or you may not roll one again in a hundred tries. As for that six, the chances are, you will probably get one eventually if you keep rolling, but your percentages don’t actually change. It’s just that the laws of probability says that if you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, you also have that same 1 in 6 chance of rolling any other number on that die…

Now, if you take that simple example to another level, back in tabletop D&D you had a “chance” table that said if you rolled percentile dice and got from 1-65% you get nothing, and then smaller chances for the “good stuff” as you roll a higher percentile. Eventually, yes, you could probably roll a 99 and get the Uber Sword of Greatness, but you still had the same chance of rolling nothing on the 200th roll as you did on the 1st.

(OPINION ALERT!)
I don’t think it’s an issue with the algorithm. I do think that the chances are so low, that I can see where some would try hundreds or even thousands of times with no drop, and others get it in just a few tries. As for me, I think I have about the same chance as I do to win a 500 million dollar Powerball all by myself.

I do think that there would be much happier people if precursors were something that you had to make with a specific MF recipe (with a chance of failure,) and that there was a reasonable chance of success for that recipe in order to keep the rarity intact without making it utterly impossible.

if you think about it, some people get bugged achievements like wvw dawn of season not activating and merc camp not registering etc…

so , what if RNG was bugged for some people? will we ever know or is it just RNG?

Put your tinfoil hats on everyone.

Galtrix.7369:

NinjaEd.3946:

Galtrix.7369:

Just the mere fact that the mystic forge was included at release shows me that Anet really doesn’t have any idea how bad the RNG system is broken. The RNG in this game works like this: If you are lucky, you are lucky for the rest of your gaming days. If you are not lucky, then you will receive practically nothing for the rest of your gaming days. That’s my opinion on this.

Many people in my guild say I’m foolish to npc my greens or salvage my yellows. I say, “have you seen my luck? I get nothing”. Some people really don’t understand this rng kitten and its horrible feedback. It’s not rewarding at all, and furthermore it serves no purpose other than a gold sink. I can have 1000 more hours than some random new comer and they will have a better chance at a precursor from the mystic toilet than me. That’s not to say all new comers will have that luck, but even 1 person having a better shot than me with less effort is terrible enough. Playtime shouldn’t equal better stats, well legendary precursor’s aren’t stat boosts. I’ve played well enough to earn at least 1 precursor.

I’ve dumped at least 2k rares into the MF and haven’t even gotten a good exotic. The last straw was when my friend had just hit level 80, and a couple of days later was running Arah and got a precursor drop. He literally put about 100 hours into the game where I put in close to 2,500 hours. I never used the Mystic Forge again after that.

You were only just getting to the upper barrier. On average it appears to be around 2k rares = precursor (1 in 500 tries) or 400 exo = precursor (1 in 100 tries). Obviously RNG plays it part so it may be less or more but on average

I really think they should change the way that we acquire the precursors, image someone that have done everything has all the gifts and he just spends hundreds of gold all the time for weeks and still not getting it because of bad luck!!!! something like that shouldnt be matter of luck….

Ever game has RNG, and i can live with that. I got over 1k hour in this game, 7 lv80 and only below 10 times i got exotic gear as drops. Therefore i have give up legendary and working slowly towards ascended weapon.

But RNG is RNG, i got a DAWN from a lv60 shark 2 days ago.

I kinda wish they would remove any kind of RNG that involves such low probabilities so I can stop hearing about everyone’s terrible math, failure to understand probability, not knowing what qualifies as statistically significant data, “luck” (not the in game mechanic), and crazy conspiracy theories.

Well, all the RNG acolytes have come out. This thread will now turn into statistics class discussion.

Ehhh.. technically nothing is truly random. Traditional lotteries where they drew a ticket/etc. out of a basket or whatever could be calculated if we understood all the variables involved.

Random number generators in games are all run off of some algorithm; it’s just a lazy kitten way of doing something because most people think it’s some kind of “magic” sorcery thing and don’t understand that it’s really just all mathematics, and thus it excites them because they can’t see the simple logic behind it.

As for me, I don’t mess with rng too often anymore; past experiences have led to me figuring out probability is not in my favor.

I just salvage rares and sell any exotics I get on the TP for the little guaranteed gold that it provides than messing with the Mystic Toilet. I might even stop salvaging rare weapons and sell them for the 20-30 silver instead of that like 25% chance at ectoplasm (although, when I do get ectos, I seem to get them in 3s a lot lol)

Crossaber.8934:

Ever game has RNG, and i can live with that. I got over 1k hour in this game, 7 lv80 and only below 10 times i got exotic gear as drops. Therefore i have give up legendary and working slowly towards ascended weapon.

But RNG is RNG, i got a DAWN from a lv60 shark 2 days ago.

Exterminating all sharks now!

Guildwars 2, now teaching valuable life lessons… like “You are not lucky, get over it.”

The Mystic forge has been something HIGHLY talked about since release. Some people like the RNG, most do not. But the way precursors are acquired right now is FINE. IT keeps them high value, very rare, and VERY saught after. ArenaNet is totally in the right to make them so hard to get because it is only a COSMETIC upgrade. You don’t need it. It wont make you hit harder, or play better. It’s just something nice to have.

Ive played the mystic forge A TON. More than most people. I love the gamble, the thrill. But i have had my fair share of HUGE wins and HUGE let downs. People will complain about spending 3, 4, 5 hundred gold and getting nothing. Then they come here and complain. Well let me say something. We ALL have the EXACT same chance of getting precursors. I have more experience than most and even I have had a streak of 800g where ive got nothing. But I’ve also had huge wins like yesterday, I got 4 Precursors from it in one day. (Dawn, Dusk, Spark, The Lover). I first got dawn, sold it, then got dusk, sold it, then got Spark and The Lover. Total gold spent? About 700g total. I got The Lover in just 4 attempts while Dawn was about 200g, Dusk about 300g, and Spark in about 180g. So yes, EVERYONE has low points, and everyone has high points. Im just here to say if you stick with it, the forge will usually reward you well. I’ve got 28 precursors total from the forge. It’s my main source of income, and I’m thrilled it’s in this game.

And if anyone is curious the precursors ive got and how many are as follow.
10x Dusk, 4x Dawn, 3x The Lover, 8x Spark, 1x The Hunter, 1x Rage, and 1x The Legend.

JUST STICK WITH IT.

Yougottawanna.7420:

Doesn’t it seem weird that a guy who’s been playing for a few weeks might, through random chance, have an item drop that’s worth more than what I’ve been able to save up in a year? I’m not a game designer but that doesn’t seem right to me.

Of course its not and the game shouldn’t have even launch without an alternative method. Its even more unbelievable that this long after launch there still isn’t an alternative.

Isha.4278:

What upsets me the most about it all is that it seems to be the same persons that get the precursors! I know for a fact that she has had at least 7 precursor drops in the last MONTH.

Which does lead one to the quite reasonable conclusion that drop rates are different for some accounts.

I know for a fact on another game that RNG in that game (ie it came from a dev on that game) was deliberately done so that some accounts were lucky, this was obviously done to show others that it was possible to get the ultra rare drop so they would keep working on them whilst still keeping the rarity intact. I would hate to think that anet are doing the same thing.

Neural.1824:

Wow. 8 comments and not one person in yet to condescendingly claim “It’s just RNG” or to accuse you of “your sample size is too small”.

The RNG Acolytes are losing their grip.

There’s no point, since it’s rather obvious. In any high variance system, when you use a small sample size (yes, i used those dirty words) there will be groups consistently getting results below average, and groups consistently getting results above average. Only when the sample size gets big enough, we’ll see the end results start to converge. Also, the more people are “tested”, the more chance for low and high results. With the high number of people trying their hands at Forge in GW2, and with the median size of forge sample being rather low, existence of “lucky” and “unlucky” people is a statistical certainty.

Of course that won’t prevent some people from believing in different conspiracy theories.

There are other reasons why this system is at the same time both unfair and a badly designed part of a legendary creation process. None of those have anything to do with “uneven” chances of forge results. No, there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that those are uneven in any way for different accounts.

zBluRrYz.1347:

The Mystic forge has been something HIGHLY talked about since release. Some people like the RNG, most do not. But the way precursors are acquired right now is FINE. IT keeps them high value, very rare, and VERY saught after. ArenaNet is totally in the right to make them so hard to get because it is only a COSMETIC upgrade. You don’t need it. It wont make you hit harder, or play better. It’s just something nice to have.

Ive played the mystic forge A TON. More than most people. I love the gamble, the thrill. But i have had my fair share of HUGE wins and HUGE let downs. People will complain about spending 3, 4, 5 hundred gold and getting nothing. Then they come here and complain. Well let me say something. We ALL have the EXACT same chance of getting precursors. I have more experience than most and even I have had a streak of 800g where ive got nothing. But I’ve also had huge wins like yesterday, I got 4 Precursors from it in one day. (Dawn, Dusk, Spark, The Lover). I first got dawn, sold it, then got dusk, sold it, then got Spark and The Lover. Total gold spent? About 700g total. I got The Lover in just 4 attempts while Dawn was about 200g, Dusk about 300g, and Spark in about 180g. So yes, EVERYONE has low points, and everyone has high points. Im just here to say if you stick with it, the forge will usually reward you well. I’ve got 28 precursors total from the forge. It’s my main source of income, and I’m thrilled it’s in this game.

And if anyone is curious the precursors ive got and how many are as follow.
10x Dusk, 4x Dawn, 3x The Lover, 8x Spark, 1x The Hunter, 1x Rage, and 1x The Legend.

JUST STICK WITH IT.

That’s not 100% true unless u break down the game code and make sure there are no bugs. There might not be it could simply be that programming it self adds in a false variable to the RNG for some people. I read this article a few days ago and found it to be very fascinating http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag .

I do find it extremely unusually some people seem to be exponentially luckier then others. There are two friends that come to mind that are examples of this. One friend has used the mystic forge 3 times the following are there returns

1. Precursor The Chosen
2. Pearl Berserkers Staff
3. The Legend

I have another friend who has black lion keys drop all the time. On average they get 2-3 a week. I would assume lion keys would have a extremely extremely low drop chance. I personally have only gotten 3 since I started playing when the game launched. The fact there a cash shop item tells me anet wants u spending real money on them.

I do personally think there is something wrong with RNG in this game. That does not mean I can prove it just like you cant prove its working. I do not see anet owning up to it if it is.

zBluRrYz.1347:

The Mystic forge has been something HIGHLY talked about since release. Some people like the RNG, most do not. But the way precursors are acquired right now is FINE. IT keeps them high value, very rare, and VERY saught after. ArenaNet is totally in the right to make them so hard to get because it is only a COSMETIC upgrade. You don’t need it. It wont make you hit harder, or play better. It’s just something nice to have.

Ive played the mystic forge A TON. More than most people. I love the gamble, the thrill. But i have had my fair share of HUGE wins and HUGE let downs. People will complain about spending 3, 4, 5 hundred gold and getting nothing. Then they come here and complain. Well let me say something. We ALL have the EXACT same chance of getting precursors. I have more experience than most and even I have had a streak of 800g where ive got nothing. But I’ve also had huge wins like yesterday, I got 4 Precursors from it in one day. (Dawn, Dusk, Spark, The Lover). I first got dawn, sold it, then got dusk, sold it, then got Spark and The Lover. Total gold spent? About 700g total. I got The Lover in just 4 attempts while Dawn was about 200g, Dusk about 300g, and Spark in about 180g. So yes, EVERYONE has low points, and everyone has high points. Im just here to say if you stick with it, the forge will usually reward you well. I’ve got 28 precursors total from the forge. It’s my main source of income, and I’m thrilled it’s in this game.

And if anyone is curious the precursors ive got and how many are as follow.
10x Dusk, 4x Dawn, 3x The Lover, 8x Spark, 1x The Hunter, 1x Rage, and 1x The Legend.

JUST STICK WITH IT.

I wouldn’t advice anyone to gamble. From the sound of it, you play the market and are rather successful, so you have ~700g to throw down and just toss things in. Most people don’t. The problem I see with this is all is that the legendary weapon is like end game for gw2. It IS just a skin, but it’s also any stat you want (ty for that update btw) and the highest quality (asc).

We don’t have quests, or goals in pve, it’s just get skins that look cool and are unique. The low number of legendary skins is an issue but not what makes the mystic forge such lunacy. We shouldn’t have to cross our fingers in a dungeon run hoping one will drop, and we shouldn’t have to gamble to gain a precursor. It should be rare, but not because its random. Making the biggest key to a puzzle, rng is just being lazy. Make us explore, make us do various tasks, the grind and lucky loot is no fun and should be discouraged.

At least most mystic weapons you have a recipe and something to collect, you know that over time you will get it whether it be farming them or collecting gold to buy them piece by piece. Precursor’s you either gamble, get an extremely lucky drop, or save up an insane amount of gold to just buy it. It’s about as bad as the zhaitify -> wings merchant during dragon bash. Sure there was an alternative, but it wasn’t reasonable at all for how much it cost (believe it was 100,000 zhaitaffy for the wing skin, it cost less to just buy the skin itself eventually).

OP! THANK YOU! You made me go to the mystic golden toilet!"!!!!

I’ve never understood why people try to gamble for their precursor. So many horror stories on the forum, where people throw in the cost of the precursor and get nothing to show for it, with someone only coming out on top once in a blue moon.

Yet people still do it and complain, I laugh.

“OMG U NEED PRECURSOR DROP OR GR8 RNG TO GET LEGGIES”

My best drop ever was my beloved Mini, Mr Fahrenheit, on my first run of Molten Foundry. Of course, he wasn’t sold, so it’s hardly contributed to anything.

Apart from that, I’ve had maybe 2 drops worth over 10g, the highest being 15g.

Look at the picture below, and tell me again you need good RNG to get nice things.

RNG is RNG, if you don’t like it, don’t participate in it.

zBluRrYz.1347:

ArenaNet is totally in the right to make them so hard to get because it is only a COSMETIC upgrade. You don’t need it.

Ive played the mystic forge A TON. More than most people. I love the gamble, the thrill.

First of all the argument that it’s “cosmetic and therefore not needed” is about the most ridiculous argument I ever hear on forums… of course it’s “not” needed, but then again why are we playing these games; they are “not” needed either. There are plenty of things we could be doing that are actually meaningful, but then again what is and isn’t meaningful is just a point of ones perspective. Nothing is really meaningful except while in direct correlation to a desired outcome.

Secondly, I do agree that they shouldn’t be just handing out precursors, but there are plenty of other ways to do this kind of thing. They could easily tie in achievement point rewards and different activities throughout the game to give players pieces they can use to craft a precursor and still keep them as commo… I mean unique as they are supposed to be.

The average player only really sticks with a game for about 2-3 months at most before moving on to something else (and maybe returning eventually). Therefore all they would need to do is calculate an achievement tier beyond what most players obtain in about a 3 month time period (most players seem to have somewhere between 1-5k AP, a handful that have played pretty much since launch somewhere above 9k+). After getting the initial achievements done and you have to rely on Living Stories, dailies and monthlies; the average player will probably obtain about 500-600 Achievement points per month. Therefore a good place for a Piece of Precursor would probably be somewhere between 8-10k AP (and of course one would have to obtain the other pieces by completing other objectives in game and personally I would put the AP piece at 10k or so just to keep it a bit more out of reach…). Something similar to this could work very well as a non rng reliant alternative to Precursor acquisition.

Also, good for you if you get a thrill out of gambling; there are just as many people that don’t find any excitement whatsoever in such activities.

Sollith.3502:

The average player only really sticks with a game for about 2-3 months at most before moving on to something else (and maybe returning eventually). Therefore all they would need to do is calculate an achievement tier beyond what most players obtain in about a 3 month time period (most players seem to have somewhere between 1-5k AP, a handful that have played pretty much since launch somewhere above 9k+). After getting the initial achievements done and you have to rely on Living Stories, dailies and monthlies; the average player will probably obtain about 500-600 Achievement points per month. Therefore a good place for a Piece of Precursor would probably be somewhere between 8-10k AP (and of course one would have to obtain the other pieces by completing other objectives in game and personally I would put the AP piece at 10k or so just to keep it a bit more out of reach…).

Seeing as 90% of the player population has below 4k ap, and 10k is likely around 1% now, i would put those breaking points at each 5k (so 5k, 10k, 15k…).

morrolan.9608:

Isha.4278:

What upsets me the most about it all is that it seems to be the same persons that get the precursors! I know for a fact that she has had at least 7 precursor drops in the last MONTH.

Which does lead one to the quite reasonable conclusion that drop rates are different for some accounts.

I know for a fact on another game that RNG in that game (ie it came from a dev on that game) was deliberately done so that some accounts were lucky, this was obviously done to show others that it was possible to get the ultra rare drop so they would keep working on them whilst still keeping the rarity intact. I would hate to think that anet are doing the same thing.

Which game is this? I can’t imagine any dev would actually admit to that. It would be absolutely suicidal.

you’re not forced to use the mystic forge. When I read how much money some people spend, I wonder if they need a medical exam. If you realized you’re unlucky save your gold and buy the weapon from the TP. It does not take 5000g before figuring out if you’re lucky or unlucky.

The only reason we having a complaint thread again, is that people that are “unlucky” search for a reason to blame anet, gm’s, devs and hey newer players. Reason unknown. I promise you that if you would of gotten a precursor after the 2nd try, this thread wouldn’t even exist. Don’t hate the System….

Already got 30 Pre-Cursors from the MF and still counting, playing since day 1 of the game.

RNG is a kitten and I like it.

You have an equal chance of a ‘pre’ using 4 rares as you do 400 or 4,000.

Like Fractal Weapons, it would be nice if you could get some sort of commendation that you could stack enough of to outright buy the item of choice if luck is not on your side. It wouldn’t be low, because it would have to preserve the existing precursor market. In this way with a guarantee of it after forging so many times, as well, the commendation may serve to even stabilize the existing market and make fluctuations less likely.

Let’s say Legend costs 750g, and exotic staves are 2.3g. A perfect world would allow you to forge (750/2.3) 326 exotic staves over 81 forges to guarantee reward, but it is not so. In a pleasant world, perhaps each forge would reward 1 staff commendation with a merchant to exchange 80 staff commendations for the Legend (rudimentary numbers pulled out of Spidy on a phone with bad math and no economic training gg I stock market how I want). And in our current world, we just wait another 6 months or whatever until they implement scavenger hunt.

Mm yea

Flissy.4093:

I’ve never understood why people try to gamble for their precursor. So many horror stories on the forum, where people throw in the cost of the precursor and get nothing to show for it, with someone only coming out on top once in a blue moon.
.

For the same reason that people line up to throw their money away when the Powerball jackpot hits 200 million. Out of the millions of people buying tickets, a handful will become rich. It’s just human nature to think you’re somehow better or more deserving and will be one of those few instead of the millions who are left holding a worthless scrap of paper.

As for the “you don’t need it” argument, the same thing is happening with players who feel that Anet “owes” them a Legendary for simply playing the game, when the process was set up from the beginning to be a long and difficult road. They confuse “need” with “want” and look for shortcuts to the goal and complain when their attempted shortcuts actually end up making it more difficult.

Even with a specific, incremental process to obtaining a precursor, most players will never own a Legendary. And that’s okay because it’s an optional goal instead of a necessity. The problem happens when players confuse the two.

tolunart.2095:

Flissy.4093:

I’ve never understood why people try to gamble for their precursor. So many horror stories on the forum, where people throw in the cost of the precursor and get nothing to show for it, with someone only coming out on top once in a blue moon.
.

For the same reason that people line up to throw their money away when the Powerball jackpot hits 200 million. Out of the millions of people buying tickets, a handful will become rich. It’s just human nature to think you’re somehow better or more deserving and will be one of those few instead of the millions who are left holding a worthless scrap of paper.

As for the “you don’t need it” argument, the same thing is happening with players who feel that Anet “owes” them a Legendary for simply playing the game, when the process was set up from the beginning to be a long and difficult road. They confuse “need” with “want” and look for shortcuts to the goal and complain when their attempted shortcuts actually end up making it more difficult.

Even with a specific, incremental process to obtaining a precursor, most players will never own a Legendary. And that’s okay because it’s an optional goal instead of a necessity. The problem happens when players confuse the two.

Except the lottery is random, while the mystic forge seems to favor some people more than others. Zommoros must live in a lake cuz it smells fishy in there.

The rich keep getting richer and the poor stay poor. Some people are bragging about their 100’s of gold and I see a ton of people who play daily (guildies) and they struggle. Hell I play all the time and I’m only at 120g, 9k ap’s. Not saying I need a precursor, but I feel like I earned one at this point. Even if its account bound, atleast let me pick 1 so I can work on something.

NinjaEd.3946:

Except the lottery is random, while the mystic forge seems to favor some people more than others. Zommoros must live in a lake cuz it smells fishy in there.

The rich keep getting richer and the poor stay poor. Some people are bragging about their 100’s of gold and I see a ton of people who play daily (guildies) and they struggle. Hell I play all the time and I’m only at 120g, 9k ap’s. Not saying I need a precursor, but I feel like I earned one at this point. Even if its account bound, atleast let me pick 1 so I can work on something.

“Seems” is the most important word in that sentence, because what seems to be is not really what is happening. Your second paragraph… human nature in action.

When I get bored, I do a key run – create a new toon (human, middle class origin, usually a ranger or thief) and run the personal story to level 10 and get a BLC key. I’ve gotten four tickets this way and I’m halfway to a fifth. I’ve made over 200 gold just from doing this, and hundreds more just standing around opening bags. Work smarter, not harder.

Ive wasted a lot of money in the forge. Its quasi fun to gamble I guess…as is if you do so in AC or Vegas. But then you pull back the layers of the onion and see that arenanet relies on RNG to make aspects of the game last longer.. It is pretty lazy if you ask me.