Guild Wars 2

Last two weeks i wasted ~2400 gold in MF. I craft rare items, sell exotics. So last two weeks i got 0 precursors. With normal rates should be ~3-4, expected to get at least 1… BUT ZERO!

Anyone had luck last two weeks or it is bugged?

Sorry for stupid topic, but i must know.

I had two tries with rare lvl 80 gs last week, got dawn, rng is rng

Funny part is first try gave me the golden sword (troll dawn)

=/
I think you could have bought 2 maybe 3 precursors

RNG is RNG.

Khalisto.5780:

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I think you could have bought 2 maybe 3 precursors

5 if he bought chaos gun, or 20 if he bought underwater!

@ezd: the 2-3 redditors who forge for precursors on an industrial level have reported being down up to 5,000 gold during their worst streaks (and iirc, that was during periods where it cost less to acquire the required rares). In that context, 2,400 spent without a pre isn’t that bad.

Khalisto.5780:

=/
I think you could have bought 2 maybe 3 precursors

This…
If you use the MF to get a precursor (expecting to get one)… you will be very unhappy.
Personally I have gotten two out of it, the Lover and Dusk, in the last 8 months.
But I know people who have dropped 3k to 7k trying to get it.
Smarter use of the money…. just buy the precursor….
as they said before… RNG is RNG

lol….I just bought my precursor for waaaaaaaaay less than that just selling mats I got from Silverwastes. ;O

I don’t get why people flush their money like that. If you have 2500g, then just BUY IT. WTH is wrong with you!?

I’d never spend that amount of money in the MF. Occasionally I drop in what i find(rare 80 drops) or buy cheap rares from the Tp for less than 50g just for the fun of it.

Gave me 4 pre drops in the last 4 months: horn, harpoongun, longbow and shortbow.

RNG is RNG, but if anything is broken, keep it that way, it’s working out for me ;P

I actually wonder what people are accumulating wealth for. :s

Got it. I am unlucky

Thx all.

penelopehannibal.8947:

I actually wonder what people are accumulating wealth for. :s

Personally, in preparation of new legendaries/collections/other crafting stuff. The precursors are hitting the crafting stations, but T6 and other materials will still hit the wallet. And if I don’t care for any of the new legendaries, there are a lot of other things I’d still like to have.

I crafted 7 daggers, first 4 attempts some random trash dagger. Used it and 3 more crafted pearl daggers got Spark. RNG is RNG, I literally didn’t spend anything and got spark on my second try.

I’ve also known people who wasted close to 3 to 5k on the mystic lottery over the years for nothing.

ezd.6359:

Last two weeks i wasted ~2400 gold in MF. I craft rare items, sell exotics. So last two weeks i got 0 precursors. With normal rates should be ~3-4, expected to get at least 1… BUT ZERO!

Nice, the “they nerfed ecto salvage rate!” topic returns with a new skin.

You do realize that you are far more likely to get a precursor if you use exotics in the forge instead of rares, right?

Test.8734:

ezd.6359:

Last two weeks i wasted ~2400 gold in MF. I craft rare items, sell exotics. So last two weeks i got 0 precursors. With normal rates should be ~3-4, expected to get at least 1… BUT ZERO!

Nice, the “they nerfed ecto salvage rate!” topic returns with a new skin.

You do realize that you are far more likely to get a precursor if you use exotics in the forge instead of rares, right?

1) As a programmer i know bugs happen. Someone said he had luck. So i have no questions any more.

2) Same chances i think. Of course it is 20% chance to get exotic, but it is 5 times cheaper.

I’ll never understand why people will feed this much into a toilet of an RNG system and then complain about it, when obviously they could have just bought the item they want (especially with that much disposable gold within a 2-week time span.)

MrRuin.9740:

I’ll never understand why people will feed this much into a toilet of an RNG system and then complain about it, when obviously they could have just bought the item they want (especially with that much disposable gold within a 2-week time span.)

It is lottery, i know. I just wanted to know it is a bug or not.

I was going to spend my last 100g on the forge and break till HoT comes out, so I bought a 100g of rare hammers, got The Colossus on the first try, salvaged the rest for ectos

ezd.6359:

1) As a programmer i know bugs happen. Someone said he had luck. So i have no questions any more.

2) Same chances i think. Of course it is 20% chance to get exotic, but it is 5 times cheaper.

Well, it’s a 20% upgrade to exotic, true. But you have to get a Lv80 exotic though for a chance on a precursor.
When you put in 4 exotics of Lv75 or something like that, you’ll always get a Lv80 exotic. If you put in 4 rares (of any level, even 80) you have to get lucky twice: a) get an exotic (20%) and b) get a Lv80 one. So I’d say the chance on a Lv80 exotic isn’t 20%, more like 10 or less.

Thanathos.2063:

ezd.6359:

1) As a programmer i know bugs happen. Someone said he had luck. So i have no questions any more.

2) Same chances i think. Of course it is 20% chance to get exotic, but it is 5 times cheaper.

Well, it’s a 20% upgrade to exotic, true. But you have to get a Lv80 exotic though for a chance on a precursor.
When you put in 4 exotics of Lv75 or something like that, you’ll always get a Lv80 exotic. If you put in 4 rares (of any level, even 80) you have to get lucky twice: a) get an exotic (20%) and b) get a Lv80 one. So I’d say the chance on a Lv80 exotic isn’t 20%, more like 10 or less.

2) When you forge 4 × 80 exotics you can receive 75 lvl exotic back too. People say it does not matter the chance to get precursors remains the same.

Or you can be me 0 Pre’s since launch + 3 days head-start. About $3000 Gold in Forge. Countless Dungeon runs. Countless Fractal runs. Uncountable Champ Runs. NO PRE’s.

If you have had them and haven’t managed to get some in the last week well I think you should re-access…….

Yes it is the RnG hammer not falling in your favour, BUT

I do play the forge a lot, and ive went threw a dry spell now for probably well over 6-8weeks, I have noticed that even when using only lvl 80 exo’s it seems to throw back a lot more lvl 76-78 weapons, I know this can happen but the last 2 months it seems more than ever before,

Ive stopped playing the forge for now so yea,

Also all those people that shout just buy the pre, where do you think them pre’s come from, you have a way higher chance from the forge than dropping in game, if people didn’t play the forge for pre’s you wouldn’t have them on the TP to buy in the first place.

Anyway advice going forward for anyone wanting to play the forge for a pre they want, DONT, Anet has told us that precursor crafting is coming to the game with the HoT expansion, just save your mats and gold and wait for it, then you will be ready to go.

Another player that does not really understand how probability works….

You understanding of the math is broken, not the MF…..

I got Zap last week with 18g worth of rare swords

I got Dusk and Zap yesterday. In the past 2 weeks ive gotten around 15.

Got Dawn from it last week using 50g~ of exotic GSs, good thing it was the one I needed, you just had bad luck I guess.

ezd.6359:

!
Anyone had luck last two weeks or it is bugged?

hmm I play since release of the game, so in 3 yrs, I have spend gold, dungeon tokens, farm cursed shore, burned my brain for months on every world boss……and I got nothing, nada, the BIG ZERO,

Probably me and many others like me, we do not have luck for years not months.

(I wonder what should I do with a bank full of ascended chests)

:)

ezd.6359:

With normal rates

snort

I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist.

Edit: I got three dusks and a dawn from the forge yesterday, Idk what’s up with your RNG

After reading this thread, bought 12 exotic greatswords off mp. Got dusk on second try.

I got torch precursor a few days back, my first precursor ever in 2 something years. I crafted around 12 rare gs, used my 8 mf stones, torch pre poped up. When tp took the fees, it left me with little less than 80 gold. So…yea

ezd.6359:

Thanathos.2063:

ezd.6359:

2) Same chances i think. Of course it is 20% chance to get exotic, but it is 5 times cheaper.

Well, it’s a 20% upgrade to exotic, true. But you have to get a Lv80 exotic though for a chance on a precursor.
When you put in 4 exotics of Lv75 or something like that, you’ll always get a Lv80 exotic. If you put in 4 rares (of any level, even 80) you have to get lucky twice: a) get an exotic (20%) and b) get a Lv80 one. So I’d say the chance on a Lv80 exotic isn’t 20%, more like 10 or less.

2) When you forge 4 × 80 exotics you can receive 75 lvl exotic back too. People say it does not matter the chance to get precursors remains the same.

Those who do industrial forging of precursors didn’t see any change in the drop rate for precursors after the change to the drop table:

• The number of different skins increased.
• For the forging of four rares of average L75:
  • The percent of upgrades to exotic was unchanged at ~20%.
  • The percent of rare L80 weapons was unchanged at ~80%.
  • The fraction of exotics that were also L80 dropped from 100% (i.e. 20% of total) to ~55% (i.e. 11% of total tries).

In other words, nothing changed about the precursor drop rate. What changed instead was how many different weapons might drop. (Initially, the value of the outputs was, on average about the same — that’s because some of the skins were new to most people’s wardrobes. Now, of course, the skins are common so the value of the outputs is down.)

ezd.6359:

Last two weeks i wasted ~2400 gold in MF. I craft rare items, sell exotics. So last two weeks i got 0 precursors. With normal rates should be ~3-4, expected to get at least 1… BUT ZERO!

Anyone had luck last two weeks or it is bugged?

Sorry for stupid topic, but i must know.

The odds of a given streak going at least that long are around 3%. If this was a single shot experiment I’d say that’s odd, but since you’ve been doing this for a while the odds of seeing a streak like that at some point are pretty high.

Chalk it up to a streak of bad luck and stick with it.

—

If the chance of getting a precursor from a particular forge are 1 in X, then the odds of seeing 0 precursors instead of the expected ‘3-4’ (say 3.5) are

((X-1)/X)^(3.5*X) ~= 0.03 for large (>80 or so) values of X.

update : I sold my colossus, and just now mystic forged a dusk for around 250-300 gold, cant remember the exact amount I spent

I like to see topics like this pop up. When in a long dry streak myself, it’s reassuring (if disheartening) to find out that the mystic forge drop rate hasn’t been messed with (yeah, I’ve got a tin foil hat!), and that’s it’s just my own bad luck.

Of course this kind of RNG is a prime reason why I stopped feeding the mystic forge so much. Too much gold and too many clicks for less than stellar results.

I got Tsunami recently which is the fake Monsoon (precursor for meteorologicus). I added it to may wardrobe and salvaged it.

But this is coming from someone that does most of their forges for practically free with crafting rares and then flushing, yet in this case, I bought random exotics on the cheap to get rid of a few champ bag exotics I could not sell because I added them to my collections.

I sure gotten a lot of usoku’s needles (fake spark) though and etched blades for corrupted daggers (even a lv 78 one that dashed my hopes of making money off it and leveling my weapon smith a hair). So I am getting close!

Rng is Rng.

I got leaf of kudzu last Saturday from the forge for under 200g

They don’t call it the mystic toilet for nothing!

Hence why I’ve never attempted to get a precursor from it. RNG just does not favour me.

Jenstone.6891:

Khalisto.5780:

=/
I think you could have bought 2 maybe 3 precursors

This…
If you use the MF to get a precursor (expecting to get one)… you will be very unhappy.
Personally I have gotten two out of it, the Lover and Dusk, in the last 8 months.
But I know people who have dropped 3k to 7k trying to get it.
Smarter use of the money…. just buy the precursor….
as they said before… RNG is RNG

Heh…
When I got my precursor, I was like “I need an exotic shortbow. I only have tier 5 mats and I got no ectos whatsoever. Let’s see, whether I can get one by tossing 20 rare shortbows into the forge. Those materials are rotting here anyway.”
Well, the shortbow certainly WAS an exotic.

Loading.4503:

update : I sold my colossus, and just now mystic forged a dusk for around 250-300 gold, cant remember the exact amount I spent

I spent 50g to see if I can forge a pre for rodgort for a buddy, had 3 torches left over so I threw in a mystic stone, made another dusk

I can hear the jelly rage coming in now

thats why i always use my dungeon tokens only.
If i get a worthless exo i just sell and make gold that way

Its a guaranteed profit.

Along with the gold i gain from doing the dungeons it will eventually leed you to the sum you need to buy whatever pre it is you need.

Win win

Well, I got the hunter yesterday after much gold over the past few weeks spent on forge. But yesterday bought 30 rare rifles and got it on 3rd attempt.

Can add to this.
Last July I had a run of RNG ‘luck’ with the mystic forge. Picked up 4 precursors in one night. Two dusk’s within 4 minutes of one another. My gold went up significantly from selling those items.
Thought to myself. “Now have an opportunity to get the precursor needed, plus have gold left over for mats”.
Never got the precursor, lost most of my gold down the forge (approx 2800g). Since then I have thrown at least another 2500g worth of items into the forge with nothing in return.
Learned my lesson. Should have held onto the gold from those 4 precursors & let my gold increase from doing events, selling junk & bought a legendary from the tp.
As no precursors ever dropped for me outside of the mystic forge, it seemed like the only avenue for gaining one, outside of farming gold for weeks on end & buying one.

alwinp.2791:

thats why i always use my dungeon tokens only.
If i get a worthless exo i just sell and make gold that way

Its a guaranteed profit.

Along with the gold i gain from doing the dungeons it will eventually leed you to the sum you need to buy whatever pre it is you need.

Win win

Well yes and no, it’s a guaranteed return on your investment, but you do take a severe hit in profitability. Those tokens used have value, and so do the items you buy with them (could be salvaged for ectos for example, even more if it’s lvl 68+ rares).

Still, it is probably the “easiest” method to justify the mt since people don’t think about the gold value of tokens directly.

rng is rng. i never got a precursor from MF, but got a Dusk from a veteran guard in WvW.

JackSpacer.4320:

lol….I just bought my precursor for waaaaaaaaay less than that just selling mats I got from Silverwastes. ;O

I don’t get why people flush their money like that. If you have 2500g, then just BUY IT. WTH is wrong with you!?

First of all, you can’t be sure that 2500g won’t get you 10 precursors. It’s a risk that can reward you a lot.

Also, imagine how much the price will raise if people just bought their precursors and no one tried for the MF.

If you had 2100g to throw into the toilet, you could’ve just bought it.