Guild Wars 2

Once again I tried to make the rest of the clovers I need for my legendary. But again, I spent 36 globs of ectoplasm, and didn’t got one single clover.

We were told there were 33% chance of getting one clover (every 3 tries, we could get at least one), so I started by making 3 tries that ended up in none clover.
Next I tried my luck in gambling 10 ectoplasm, which got me any clover as well.
I decided to try another 10 and then again, nothing.
One last try, I tried 3 other tries and still got any clover.

Can you explain why it doesn’t work for me?
I’m almost complete at every step to have my legendary but I’m still stuck at the clovers. Is there any problem with the recipe or my account is really unlucky?

Bad luck. RNG is the most fiendish of all enemies in this world.

For me though it took 200 Ectoplasm total for my clovers. I did all of them 10 at a time.

It’s NEVER been guarenteed to work 1 out of 3…ever. Reasearch and you will find many have dumped endless globs into Big Z in hope of a clover, with no dice. It’s RNG pure and simple.

The only thing we might know for sure is that there is better success making the 1 clover recipe rather than the 10 clover one. And it’s also not as big a kick in the gut when it doesn’t succeed. Good luck in your legendary endeavours, I am also working on mine.

8 tries and no clovers isn’t incredible with a bit of bad luck. When getting my 77 clovers, which I did in one sitting, I had several strings of bad luck where I wouldn’t get any clovers with nearly 15 attempts. In the end, it took me 226 Ectos, which is only 5 ecto less than par.

There is no guaranteed 33% chance. The chance is 1/3 that you miight get an Clover. I used 400 tries to get 77. Sometimes I had 4 luck strikes, after that I tried another 10 times and got anything..

Just bad luck.

Lyah.9548:

We were told there were 33% chance of getting one clover (every 3 tries, we could get at least one), so I started by making 3 tries that ended up in none clover.

Not that it helps your problem any, but the 33% does not work that way. The chance is not cumulitive, it is single instance. So 100 tries will not get you 33 successes. What 100 tries will get you is a 33% chance each individual try.

Its like having a 3 cups upside down with a ball under one. Every time they are shuffled,whether it is once or a 100 times, you will have a 1 in 3 chance in picking the cup with a ball under it.

On your Clover thing, that sucks man. Some pretty bad luck there.

Ummm 1/3 (33%) is still a statistical value, therefore any multiple of tries, should statistically, give 1/3 (33%). However, the larger your pool number (i.e. tries), the closer you should get to this statistical value.

It is the same as the coin flip experiment which has a 50/50 statistical chance – the more tests you run the closer you will get to this.

The problem may be that statistics is purely theoretical. The environment, in this case game code, may not be perfect – RNG are never perfect therefore to obtain 33% you would need much more than the result of 70 clovers you are looking for. Perhaps 1000 tries would suffice, however, if by then it was not getting close to 333 clovers then the code needs to be adjusted.

Yeah, sorry about your bad luck but thats just what it was. Every time you try to make clover you got the 1/3 chance.

The single clover recipe is more reliable to get your clovers as with greater number of tries rng will balance out better. The 10 clover recipe is for lucky people (like me) or to those who like to gamble.

If each try gives a 33% chance, out of 8 tries, there’s roughly a 11% chance of getting none. It’s not that surprising. I do 30 at a time. I’ve had bad streaks and good. I’ve gotten 10 in a row without a clover and ended up with 7 out of 30. I’ve also ended up with 13 out of 30. The total is still 20/60 which is 33% (33.33333…)

Clovers have been my only area of very good luck. I had a 40% success rate with 10x recipe and even got 20 corrupted lodestones on one failure.

random chance can suck sometimes. my suggestion would be to never risk the 10x recipe. you are more likely to stick to the averages with the larger sample size. I’ve gone for large stretches with bad runs, but also sometimes the other way around. Just keep at it, i’m up to 73 and i’m about as casual as you can get.

The MC recipe always gives you something useful that you need for your legendary or an item valueable enough to sell.

Next time use the 1 clover try instead of the 10 clover try 2x then 3x on the single.

using the 1x recipe, you’re just allowing that non-guaranteed average ~30% chance have more of a chance to settle in. for my clovers (okay, i accidentally got 81 cause i didn’t have all my clovers in my inv at that time) it took 236 shards / tries. so that gave me about a 34% chance. i would go at times a streak of no clovers, and then later on, a steak of only clovers. so it really is all chance.

with the 10x recipe, it may end up being a similar “ratio” but you’re risking more for higher rewards is all. and that being said, to get as close to that ~30%, it’s best to do it all in one go.

Just used up 10 ectos/shards/coins (using the recipe for 1 ten different times)

Got 1 clover.

FIrstly, when going for a legendary, MAKE CLOVERS FIRST. That way, you get some of the T6 mats that you will need for gift of might and gift of magic. It actually is quite useful.

Secondly, NEVER go for the 10 shot option…always make single clovers.

Finally, always plan to use twice as many mats when dealing with RNG mechanics. The data says 1/3-1/5th? Plan on 1/6th-1/10th.

Xenth.2408:

If each try gives a 33% chance, out of 8 tries, there’s roughly a 11% chance of getting none.

Check your math. It’s about 4%, actually.

Astralporing.1957:

Xenth.2408:

If each try gives a 33% chance, out of 8 tries, there’s roughly a 11% chance of getting none.

Check your math. It’s about 4%, actually.

3.9018442310623380582228318853833% to be more exact lol.

This is an ‘Independant Probability’ relationship.

Those of you who are doing the 10 at once recipe and then are complaining about not getting any need to do some basic probability. Doing 10 at once lowers the sample size because they all are a success or a failure, so it’s much more of a gamble. It’s like entering the lottery and then complaining when you lose, because the much safer 1 clover recipe (Which in a large batch will come extremely close to one third of what you chuck in) is still there.

Lyah.9548:

Once again I tried to make the rest of the clovers I need for my legendary. But again, I spent 36 globs of ectoplasm, and didn’t got one single clover.

We were told there were 33% chance of getting one clover (every 3 tries, we could get at least one), so I started by making 3 tries that ended up in none clover.
Next I tried my luck in gambling 10 ectoplasm, which got me any clover as well.
I decided to try another 10 and then again, nothing.
One last try, I tried 3 other tries and still got any clover.

Can you explain why it doesn’t work for me?
I’m almost complete at every step to have my legendary but I’m still stuck at the clovers. Is there any problem with the recipe or my account is really unlucky?

Stick with the 1 recipe, seriously. I guarantee if you used all 36 ectos with the 1 recipe, you would have at least got 10-12 back. The reason you got none is because you used the 10 ecto recipe. Theoretically it’s the same % and thing but there are several reasons why this recipe shouldn’t be used.

1. You have a higher chance of being left with a stack of more worthless t6 mats
2. The 10 ecto recipe requires you to have a higher pool of sample size in order to feel the 33 % chance. So if you had a bad luck streak then you could very well get no clovers after spending 30 ectos. That is why the 1 ecto recipe is better in this sense. I have made all my mystic clovers and you will see that statistic doesn’t lie. It really isn’t RNG for mystic clovers since you know its a 33 % chance and that if you chucked in 100 ectos you will most likely get about 33 in return. I find I usually am a little luckier and I get about 35-40 back so I beat the % by a tiny bit.

Anyways, stay away from that 10 ecto recipe unless you’re planning to do like at least 200-400 ectos at once.

Randulf.7614:

Clovers have been my only area of very good luck. I had a 40% success rate with 10x recipe and even got 20 corrupted lodestones on one failure.

Wow, that’s a lot of gold. :o Biggest fail reward I got was 20 ectos.