Guild Wars 2

Sister thread here!

So after analyzing both side’s arguments I’ve come to the conclusion that it is not going to be resolved until each side understands that they have yet to get past a serious obstacle in their arguments. And I shall describe them here…

“RNG is borked”
The issue here is lack of proof. But more importantly, how impractical it is to get this proof. It would require a large number of account experiences that all had a large sample size of loot drops for the information to be considered evidence. There is so much that is needed that resorting to ad Populum is a better method. Granted, ad Populum is a logical fallacy but its only power in an argument is limited to show that an issue exists.

“RNG is RNG”
The main issue here is a lack of understanding regarding the nature of programming. This is a videogame. It is completely possible to program a discriminating loot system, automated or not. Doesn’t mean the company is going to admit it. In fact, from a business standpoint it would be a good idea to have one and keep something like that a secret.

• Having <1% of accounts get multiple precursors (flagged accounts) in the game every week keeps the distribution of high value items to a minimum and goads unflagged accounts to purchase them by buying gems and then with gem-to-gold exchanges.

• Keeping droprates abyssmal to impossible for accounts known to get on regardless is a good way to increase the chance they will buy gems to make up for the lack of drops.

• Modifying droprates to randomly produce high-end but highly undesirable items will keep those with unlucky accounts playing by making them think that it is possible to get the good stuff. The morale boost keeps them playing.

Again it is completely possible to design a borked loot system. While “RNG is RNG” is a sensible argument it is not enough to argue that “RNG is borked” is false. While its supported by not having to burden as much proof as its competitor, it is shot down by the fact I stated above.

As I said “main”, there is also another argument that is made by the same group that doesn’t work either.

“Humans have a natural tendency to find patterns where there are none.”

The problem is that patterns exist whether you see them or not. In fact there is an algorithm that predicts the future (here) so you can almost say there is never not a pattern. While reality can’t be engineered, computers can. They’re limited in that there is no “human factor” involved beyond the guy typing. The computer runs on a set programming, a pattern. It will go through this pattern a trillion times a day and start over each time it completes its programming until its turned off. (Read this.)

Now even though technology has made it possible to generate “truely” random numbers, it doesn’t mean anet has that technology. In fact, that is highly improbable. It would be financially impractical and unprofitable compared to the bullet points I provided above.

Now I am not saying Anet is doing this, but the thought of it happening is nowhere near conspiracy material. It is real. It can happen.

<insert conclusion paragraph here>

Just buy a new account. You’ll get dozens of precursors. Mine did.

yolo swaggins.2570:

“RNG is RNG”
The main issue here is a lack of understanding regarding the nature of programming. This is a videogame. It is completely possible to program a discriminating loot system, automated or not. Doesn’t mean the company is going to admit it. In fact, from a business standpoint it would be a good idea to have one and keep something like that a secret.

Thank you for having the guts to point this out, even though I’m sure you’ll get flamed for it.

The fact is that from a business standpoint, Anet has a lot to gain by gaming the system, and doing so is not illegal. Nor is it stated anywhere in the EULA that the loot system is fair or impartial. People have simply assumed that Anet is this pristine snowflake of a company that is apparently staffed by individuals who are the most philanthropic, blameless, infallible, perfect individuals to ever walk the earth, who would never for a moment consider doing such things, even if they can be proven to increase profits.

One of the things that would help RNG in favor of players is for ArenaNet to get rid of bags. Bags are unaffected in most spots(according to ArenaNet)by Magic Find.

“Working as intended” is another coy way of saying, “It’s working as we want it to.” That doesn’t mean that it’s working in your favor. Seriously guys, this is a game that encourages you to gamble by purchasing lockboxes with real money for a very slim chance of receiving expensive fake items in a fake world.

The in-game economy is directly tied to ArenaNet’s real world income. This game will never have drop rates geared towards players getting the high price tag items they want in game. It’s why the precursor system took so long to incorporate.

I personally would like them to incorporate a mechanic that flagged each account and your chance of getting a precursor would go up incrementally(very slowly)over time so that it would get rid of the outliers in the game. All people deserve to get the item they want without having to find the fastest way to make gold and do it ad nauseam until they get enough money to buy what they want.

For a company that claims to want to do things in a more innovative way than everyone else, they sure employ a very run of the mill rewards system and it’s all because the game economy is tied to their real life coffers. It’s a bummer.

Iason Evan.3806:

One of the things that would help RNG in favor of players is for ArenaNet to get rid of bags. Bags are unaffected in most spots(according to ArenaNet)by Magic Find.

“Working as intended” is another coy way of saying, “It’s working as we want it to.” That doesn’t mean that it’s working in your favor. Seriously guys, this is a game that encourages you to gamble by purchasing lockboxes with real money for a very slim chance of receiving expensive fake items in a fake world.

The in-game economy is directly tied to ArenaNet’s real world income. This game will never have drop rates geared towards players getting the high price tag items they want in game. It’s why the precursor system took so long to incorporate.

I personally would like them to incorporate a mechanic that flagged each account and your chance of getting a precursor would go up incrementally(very slowly)over time so that it would get rid of the outliers in the game. All people deserve to get the item they want without having to find the fastest way to make gold and do it ad nauseam until they get enough money to buy what they want.

For a company that claims to want to do things in a more innovative way than everyone else, they sure employ a very run of the mill rewards system and it’s all because the game economy is tied to their real life coffers. It’s a bummer.

I actually like the bags, good thing about a bag is unless you open it you don’t know if what’s inside the bag is worth more than the unopened bag. Players like to see what drops, with bags you get that bit extra in terms of what was it I got.

Imo drop rates are low so that you don’t gain to much gold too quickly, so if you’re impatient you’re more likely to get gems to trade for gold or just buy gems for the latest limited offer (bear cub). It must work quite well for them, it also keeps the player trading between gold and gems and gems and gold in a lively state.

This game does encourage gambling with some of the items, which is why I don’t usually buy that type of item. I don’t gamble in RL so tend not to in-game either.

Neural.1824:

The fact is that from a business standpoint, Anet has a lot to gain by gaming the system, and doing so is not illegal.

Problem is, i have yet to see a “rng conspiracy” thread where the suggested way in which drops were supposed to be manipulated would be sensible to Anet. There’s always the “???” step before “Profit!” one, with no explanation whatsoever why Anet would profit.
Also, while the lack of understanding of the nature of both programming and rng is indeed present on both sides of debate, it is glaringly evident on the side of conspiracy theorists.

TL/DR: No, RNG conspiracy theory side cannot prove their ideas not because they can’t present enough data to make it obvious, but because 90% of those theories have only passable connection to reality (and i am being generous here).

Just go out there and kill some Centaurs and Dragon minions, instead of worrying about loot and wealth. True heroes seek no reward!!

“Working as intended” is actually developer speak for – “We know what we’re doing because we’re making an MMO and since you’re not, nothing of what you say can ever be right. Or we can’t be kitten d to take a look at it because it’s simply not high enough of a priority.”

Of course making something a priority equivalates to “Can we make money by fixing this.” or “Is it blowing up the forums so much that by not answering it makes us look like we don’t care or know what we’re doing and players are leaving the game.”

Shivan.9438:

“Working as intended” is actually developer speak for – “We know what we’re doing because we’re making an MMO and since you’re not, nothing of what you say can ever be right. Or we can’t be kitten d to take a look at it because it’s simply not high enough of a priority.”

Of course making something a priority equivalates to “Can we make money by fixing this.” or “Is it blowing up the forums so much that by not answering it makes us look like we don’t care or know what we’re doing and players are leaving the game.”

Actually, the forums represent such a small slice of the games population, that they don’t even have to care if things are blowing up here. If that were the case, they’d be introducing Cantha in the expansion (based on the number of replies and activity that the Cantha thread had over the past 2 years).

Neural.1824:

Actually, the forums represent such a small slice of the games population, that they don’t even have to care if things are blowing up here. If that were the case, they’d be introducing Cantha in the expansion (based on the number of replies and activity that the Cantha thread had over the past 2 years).

Also, 96.3% of the changes made to the game would have been reversed within two weeks, and there would be a permanent staff member who did nothing but post apologies on behalf of the devs.

There’s 4 threads on page 1 relating to this issue. I don’t care much because honestly I grinded out everything and I’m done grinding as I have everything I’d want. Maybe that makes me somewhat biased but I do feel there is some type of issue occurring here but as I’ve said in other threads to test this would be difficult and a grind so I’m not gonna bother. It doesn’t matter to me personally if anything comes out of it either way. But anyone who is saying its a totally non issue is annoying because there’s no way you know that. And if you are so set on it being a non issue then you put effort into testing it.

“Actually” This very same thing happened at Blizzard regarding Vanish with Rogues. It took two years of the same thread bumped to the top and multiple threads for it to happen, and finally when Blizzard said “Ok, we’ll look at it.” They found out that there was indeed server/client lag and admitted that there was a problem.

This forum has yet to reach that limit though.

Its kinda obvious that there is something wrong with the RNG in this game. People with new accounts and 1k AP getting precursors all the time people like me with 27,5k AP and 8k+ hours have 1 precursor (I got Rage precursor after 7400h) drop if lucky.
My other accounts (got 30 for daily login rewards) have vastly different drop results, too. Some have 4 or 5 black lion kits from dailies already, a few still at 0. I am tempted to play mystic forge casino at one of the accounts with 5 kits :/

Andraus.3874:

There’s 4 threads on page 1 relating to this issue. I don’t care much because honestly I grinded out everything and I’m done grinding as I have everything I’d want. Maybe that makes me somewhat biased but I do feel there is some type of issue occurring here

Yes, there is an issue. It is however not a game issue, but a psychological one.

It seems to me that loot will be much easier to get in the Xpac. They’re still adding a system to basically craft precursors right?

Astralporing.1957:

Andraus.3874:

There’s 4 threads on page 1 relating to this issue. I don’t care much because honestly I grinded out everything and I’m done grinding as I have everything I’d want. Maybe that makes me somewhat biased but I do feel there is some type of issue occurring here

Yes, there is an issue. It is however not a game issue, but a psychological one.

Really? Black and white thinking is also a psychological issue. What do you have to lose by this being investigated? Besides a ego trip in proving everyone else is wrong. Otherwise why post something trollsy like this that does nothing to add to the conversation. If you’re so sure then go test it yourself otherwise neither side has room to say this is a definite issue or definitely not and issue.

The opening sentiments are just, well, problematic. RNG can work exactly as intended and still to be too abysmal and unrewarding to be worth something. Which, in my opinion, is exactly Guild Wars 2’s problem.

Andraus.3874:

Astralporing.1957:

Andraus.3874:

There’s 4 threads on page 1 relating to this issue. I don’t care much because honestly I grinded out everything and I’m done grinding as I have everything I’d want. Maybe that makes me somewhat biased but I do feel there is some type of issue occurring here

Yes, there is an issue. It is however not a game issue, but a psychological one.

Really? Black and white thinking is also a psychological issue. What do you have to lose by this being investigated? Besides a ego trip in proving everyone else is wrong. Otherwise why post something trollsy like this that does nothing to add to the conversation. If you’re so sure then go test it yourself otherwise neither side has room to say this is a definite issue or definitely not and issue.

Astral has a valid point.

Sure, I wouldn’t mind the topic being officially investigated with some transparency from A-net.

I’ve seen similar experiences here to those seen in gambling though, due to a load of different cognitive biases and I’d be willing to bet that the majority of annecdotal evidence is due to this, the rest is due to a natural deviance in RNG. Gambling can be likened to gaming- in particular the reward system and random rewards.

Take it this way, this is me applying fact and logic (from researched psychology) to this problem. Unfortunately for now the opposing argument hasn’t got any evidence apart from what can be explained with cognitive bias (apart from a distrust in A-net’s/A-net’s ability).

I would take down drop-rate notes, but it would require so much other info that it would end up interrupting game-play, and thus it wouldn’t be valid. Researching and data collecting for this would very much interest me, I’d like to see the results and the analysis.

But it seems like we’re all repeating ourselves. Why is there another thread about this, again?

But while it’s completely possible the question would then be why expend that effort. If their plans are to distribute X number of precursors per number of drops it works just as well targeting everyone than a small subset.

Also depending on the activity you are doing can alter your chances. You may have a better chance using the MF than hitting boss chest after boss chest.

If you have a whole lot of gold and a gambler at heart you may play the Mystic Forge a lot more than most, and without qualifying or relying on memory Vs an accurate track other players may end up with a false idea about the actual frequency of success. You could get one on your 1st try or your 101st and then your 102nd try. So is it a 100% chance, a 1.98% chance or a 2.94% chance? Maybe the next gap is 250 or 500 tries and you were just lucky.

Others hearing your success try it and when they don’t get one after 60 or 70 tries they cry that RNG is broken or there are lucky accounts.

Humans simply aren’t wired to understand chance, we fixate on patterns even if they aren’t there. If you have a 1 in 100 chance to “win” you only have a 50/50 chance on the 69th try to win at least once, not the 50th. After 109 tries you still only have a 2/3rds chance of winning at least once. And after 229 tries 10% still would not win at least once, but two out of 100 player would win 6 times and there’s a good chance one player won 7 times.

So we have 10 players out of 100 saying it’s horribly broken while 3 players saying the opposite and 70 with 1 to 3 wins relatively content. Drop the odds to 1 in a 1000, the 50/50 mark is now at 693 tries. But 2 to 3 players out of 100 trying that many times would win 3 times. Again cries of unfair, broken and fixed is raised.

And that’s the thing about RNG, gross results, total number of successes versus odds will be inline with expectations while from the individual’s perspective it can seem grossly broken or some players simply very lucky.

From our point of view in the trenches, we will never know if it’s okay or not. And we don’t know if ANet checks if the distribution of wins versus tries match projections or if they simply putting their faith in mt19937 (Mersenne Twister) which is considered to be an excellent PRNG that has a 6001 digit repeat period (1 with 6001 zeros).

That’s why there’s the sticky thread on altering RNG rewards to toss a bone to the unlucky.

Crimson Clouds.4853:

But it seems like we’re all repeating ourselves. Why is there another thread about this, again?

Because yolo, of course.

It shouldn’t be too disruptive to take a screen shot of every loot screen, then go back later to catalog the drops, some players have been documenting every drop, salvage, boss chest, whatever for months or even years.

Or set up some kind of recording software to document everything you do and post the footage on Youtube or something. Not sure how that works because I personally have no interest in doing this, but thousands of people have done it already so it must be possible.

This thread is better. The OP offers all sides of the argument and isn’t dead set on pointing the finger saying you’re wrong. Being only for or against in a debatable topic is not constructive which is what I pointed out earlier. Striving for the gray area on topics where people want it to be black and white is always the best.

Except that a screenshot of your bags doesn’t document how much you’ve killed, what level and a lot of other variables. X player could report they got much better loot than Y player, but this was because X was tagging more foes in a specified time period.

Video capturing would be the best method, currently. It would be a very lengthy process of transcribing all data from the video though.

I’ve already mentioned this twice. In a perfect world, there would be a community made overlay for GW2 that recorded all of this data, and then can be collated and analysed. This would mean minimal effort for the user (bar uploading data) and no interruption to game-play.

It seems this ‘issue’ has come up this week over the Portal drops.

The expected outcome (from ArenaNet) is surely the majority of players will not receive a Portal (it would be an Open Beta, rather than a Closed Beta, were that not the case), and that is what is seen in threads. The absence of Portal drops. If most posts were about getting a drop, then we would surely have some questions about RNG being ‘borked’, no?

Crimson Clouds.4853:

Except that a screenshot of your bags doesn’t document how much you’ve killed, what level and a lot of other variables. X player could report they got much better loot than Y player, but this was because X was tagging more foes in a specified time period.

Video capturing would be the best method, currently. It would be a very lengthy process of transcribing all data from the video though.

I’ve already mentioned this twice. In a perfect world, there would be a community made overlay for GW2 that recorded all of this data, and then can be collated and analysed. This would mean minimal effort for the user (bar uploading data) and no interruption to game-play.

When many players were posting claims that ecto salvaging was broken, some person or persons stepped forward with real data from a sufficiently large sample of salvages to suggest there may be some truth to the claims. Devs investigated, a bug was found and the bug was squashed.

It was not a record of millions of salvages, nor was it absolute proof of a problem, but it was sufficient to cause John Smith to investigate, using tools that can perform millions of salvages and analyze the data. Without numbers, he has no reason to stop what he is working on and perform rng testing every time someone throws a fit on the forums.

This is not a court of law, and the loot system is not on trial for murder. Something along the lines of “here’s a video of me looting three exotics and a precursor in an hour, stuff like this shouldn’t be happening,” is enough to raise suspicion that something is wrong, where statements like “my buddy gets exotics ALL THE TIME, this shouldn’t be happening,” does not.

If the loot disparity between different accounts that are online at the same time and in the same place is real, as people have been claiming, it is not that hard to document a few examples of this happening.

The loot disparity is, quite literally, supposed to happen between different accounts. So what are you documenting? That it works?

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

It seems this ‘issue’ has come up this week over the Portal drops.

The expected outcome (from ArenaNet) is surely the majority of players will not receive a Portal (it would be an Open Beta, rather than a Closed Beta, were that not the case), and that is what is seen in threads. The absence of Portal drops. If most posts were about getting a drop, then we would surely have some questions about RNG being ‘borked’, no?

Of course it is.

Posting during their spare time takes very little effort and they were going to complain about something anyway. And there is a chance, however small, that if they raise a big enough stink about it that Anet will placate them with a piece of candy… er, a free pass to the beta… to shut them up.

Sorin.4310:

The loot disparity is, quite literally, supposed to happen between different accounts. So what are you documenting? That it works?

That there is a consistent difference in loot drops between those accounts. Saying “he gets better loot than me,” is meaningless. Show me. More importantly, show the devs.

Sorin is saying you’re proposed design in recording someone looting a few exotics and a precursor is really not an experimental design at all. There’s YouTube videos of guys pulling back to back precursors out of the forge but that doesn’t mean anything is broken.

Andraus.3874:

Sorin is saying you’re proposed design in recording someone looting a few exotics and a precursor is really not an experimental design at all. There’s YouTube videos of guys pulling back to back precursors out of the forge but that doesn’t mean anything is broken.

It becomes increasing unrealistic as the streak continues. I can accept two precursors as a random event, but if someone demonstrates the ability to do it consistently then it at least raises the suspicion that there is a problem. This would be enough to cause the devs to investigate the situation, you don’t have to do their work for them. But you do have to convince them there’s more to it than bad memories and jealousy.

For example, it’s absolutely possible for the same person to win the Powerball Lottery jackpot for four drawings in a row. But if it happened you can be sure that he is going to be turned upside down and inside out by authorities investigating whether or not the results of the lottery were manipulated. Even if there is no evidence the system was tampered with, they can’t just let it go without an investigation.

And as I stated in my last post, people are horrible at understanding probabilities. With a low enough chance you can get a significant percentage getting nothing while a relative few get a boatload given enough trys. That’s the nature of randomness. There isn’t a discernible pattern. There will always be “unlucky” and very “lucky”.

Behellagh.1468:

And as I stated in my last post, people are horrible at understanding probabilities. With a low enough chance you can get a significant percentage getting nothing while a relative few get a boatload given enough trys. That’s the nature of randomness. There isn’t a discernible pattern. There will always be “unlucky” and very “lucky”.

Everything else in these threads aside…Why is that a good thing to have in a game? (accounts that remain on the low end of the curve)

Behellagh.1468:

And as I stated in my last post, people are horrible at understanding probabilities. With a low enough chance you can get a significant percentage getting nothing while a relative few get a boatload given enough trys. That’s the nature of randomness. There isn’t a discernible pattern. There will always be “unlucky” and very “lucky”.

Just to be clear here, I know that there is nothing wrong with the loot system and that it truly is sufficiently random, and that any extremely lucky streak can end at any time. The anecdotes about accounts that collect precursors like popcorn on movie night are just simple trolls or exaggerations. I know it will never happen, but I’d like to see those who claim otherwise “put up or shut up.” I know that any real experiment of this nature will only reinforce the realization that loot is random and occasionally people get lucky but over a period of time results are pretty much what you would expect.

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And as I stated in my last post, people are horrible at understanding probabilities. With a low enough chance you can get a significant percentage getting nothing while a relative few get a boatload given enough trys. That’s the nature of randomness. There isn’t a discernible pattern. There will always be “unlucky” and very “lucky”.

Just to be clear here, I know that there is nothing wrong with the loot system and that it truly is sufficiently random, and that any extremely lucky streak can end at any time.

Just out of curiosity…How do you “know” this to be true?

Essence Snow.3194:

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And as I stated in my last post, people are horrible at understanding probabilities. With a low enough chance you can get a significant percentage getting nothing while a relative few get a boatload given enough trys. That’s the nature of randomness. There isn’t a discernible pattern. There will always be “unlucky” and very “lucky”.

Just to be clear here, I know that there is nothing wrong with the loot system and that it truly is sufficiently random, and that any extremely lucky streak can end at any time.

Just out of curiosity…How do you “know” this to be true?

I’ve never thought of a computer program as really being capable of truly being random.

But even if it can’t it doesn’t really matter, because the program doesn’t have emotions and will just work the same way for everyone.

Essence Snow.3194:

Behellagh.1468:

And as I stated in my last post, people are horrible at understanding probabilities. With a low enough chance you can get a significant percentage getting nothing while a relative few get a boatload given enough trys. That’s the nature of randomness. There isn’t a discernible pattern. There will always be “unlucky” and very “lucky”.

Everything else in these threads aside…Why is that a good thing to have in a game? (accounts that remain on the low end of the curve)

RNG loot and the TP was meant to be the great equalizer. No tying of item to specific content.

If you tie doing X to get Y, Y will need to be account bound or Y will be farmed to death if good. But for something like precursors then Y will need to be a ticket you can trade for the exact precursor you want.

And if you can’t do X, well no Y for you. Ever. How fun is that? More or less than one day getting one out of the blue? Same if you never get one but now there’s a chance. And since they are not account bound, they are tradable on the TP so you can get one if you save enough.

Azala Yar.7693:

I’ve never thought of a computer program as really being capable of truly being random.

But even if it can’t it doesn’t really matter, because the program doesn’t have emotions and will just work the same way for everyone.

I said sufficiently random. I can’t predict what loot will drop, nor can anyone else. The “seed” has been confirmed not to be connected to account number, or age, or the height of your character or any other number that would permanently kitten any particular account.

The same complaints pop up every so often since the game was released, and if the system was bugged they would have found it by now. Nor was it secretly created to favor new accounts, old accounts, or people named Charles or whatever. As long as you vary your in-game activities to avoid triggering DR you have the same chance at getting a particular piece of loot as everyone else. Anet gains nothing and loses much if they deliberately cheat players out of pixels that are ultimately worthless anyway.

tolunart.2095:

Azala Yar.7693:

I’ve never thought of a computer program as really being capable of truly being random.

But even if it can’t it doesn’t really matter, because the program doesn’t have emotions and will just work the same way for everyone.

I said sufficiently random. I can’t predict what loot will drop, nor can anyone else. The “seed” has been confirmed not to be connected to account number, or age, or the height of your character or any other number that would permanently kitten any particular account.

The same complaints pop up every so often since the game was released, and if the system was bugged they would have found it by now. Nor was it secretly created to favor new accounts, old accounts, or people named Charles or whatever. As long as you vary your in-game activities to avoid triggering DR you have the same chance at getting a particular piece of loot as everyone else. Anet gains nothing and loses much if they deliberately cheat players out of pixels that are ultimately worthless anyway.

Good point, but about the seed numbers. We know thats its not tied to character or account number or anything but…(puts on tinfoil hat) what if it’s tied to the activation code? Apparently thats a randomly generated number as well, and some parts of that number if they fall in a certain range, it makes that accout more “lucky” than another account.

Just a thought….

pdavis.8031:

tolunart.2095:

Azala Yar.7693:

I’ve never thought of a computer program as really being capable of truly being random.

But even if it can’t it doesn’t really matter, because the program doesn’t have emotions and will just work the same way for everyone.

I said sufficiently random. I can’t predict what loot will drop, nor can anyone else. The “seed” has been confirmed not to be connected to account number, or age, or the height of your character or any other number that would permanently kitten any particular account.

The same complaints pop up every so often since the game was released, and if the system was bugged they would have found it by now. Nor was it secretly created to favor new accounts, old accounts, or people named Charles or whatever. As long as you vary your in-game activities to avoid triggering DR you have the same chance at getting a particular piece of loot as everyone else. Anet gains nothing and loses much if they deliberately cheat players out of pixels that are ultimately worthless anyway.

Good point, but about the seed numbers. We know thats its not tied to character or account number or anything but…(puts on tinfoil hat) what if it’s tied to the activation code? Apparently thats a randomly generated number as well, and some parts of that number if they fall in a certain range, it makes that accout more “lucky” than another account.

Just a thought….

And/Or the rng is fine but it has to interact with other account modifiers to produce loot and a product of that interaction causes discrepancies.

Its not a conspiracy.

NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)

Another thread, another failure to understand statistical variance.

Also, your presented dichotomy is a false equivalence. You admit in your very first paragraph that there is no evidence to support “RNG is Borked”. To quote Christopher Hitchens, “That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”

But it’s worse than that. We can not only dismiss the claim without evidence because it has none supporting it, we have evidence to indicate it is not the case. Even a cursory understanding of statistics would allow one to see that just by pure chance on a sample size as large as the player population would lead to many (a large number, but a small percent) having an uncanny drop rate for good loot (in both directions, lots and none). What we see is exactly what would be expected from a reasonable, working, unbiased RNG.

Furthermore, any suggestion that ANet would actually have an incentive to create an intentionally, and secretly, broken RNG system is specious at best. The cost benefit of such a move is wholly in the red. Even if you think that the arguments for its effectiveness at making ANet more money would actually work (which I do not think they would), the additional amount that it would make the company is far outweighed by the negative repercussions that would follow should such a plan actually come to light.

I’m also quite sure that some one at ANet actually has gone and run the numbers (because they actually have access to the data) to detect if there is a problem as described. And I’m sure that what they’ve found very closely matches the distribution that would be expected from an unbiased RNG, and that the only reason they haven’t come forward with their data is because there would be no point. Those conspiracy theorists that defend the idea that there are “cursed” and “blessed” accounts are not going to be convinced by the math because people like me have already tried. ANet trying to do so would only fall on deaf ears who would only see ANet’s attempt to assuage their concerns as an attempt to cover up the truth, because that’s how conspiracies are fed; how conspiracy theorists react to cognitive the dissonance of confronting evidence that does not conform to their beliefs. It all must be part of the conspiracy.

Knighthonor.4061:

Its not a conspiracy.

NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)

True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable. Plus it only repeats it’s sequence after 4×10^6001 numbers.

Here, wear this. You’ll be in good company.

Hey another think I want to point out, is that IF (big IF) the RNG is rigged for flagged accounts, Anet likely wouldnt tell us anyway. would you agree?

Behellagh.1468:

Knighthonor.4061:

Its not a conspiracy.

NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)

True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable. Plus it only repeats it’s sequence after 4×10^6001 numbers.

Here, where this. You’ll be in good company.

I cant find the story on the internet. originally saw this story on TV. Was a Programmer that designed the RNG code for Casino Slot Machines and was going broke, and decided to play the slot machines he had designed the code for. he was able to win lots of money because he knew the secret RNG algorithm code for the Slot Machine.

Knighthonor.4061:

Behellagh.1468:

Knighthonor.4061:

Its not a conspiracy.

NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)

True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable. Plus it only repeats it’s sequence after 4×10^6001 numbers.

Here, where this. You’ll be in good company.

I cant find the story on the internet. originally saw this story on TV. Was a Programmer that designed the RNG code for Casino Slot Machines and was going broke, and decided to play the slot machines he had designed the code for. he was able to win lots of money because he knew the secret RNG algorithm code for the Slot Machine.

I don’t think I would put much stock in something I sort of remember happening in some tv show and use it to back up anything.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Knighthonor.4061:

Behellagh.1468:

Knighthonor.4061:

Its not a conspiracy.

NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)

True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable. Plus it only repeats it’s sequence after 4×10^6001 numbers.

Here, where this. You’ll be in good company.

I cant find the story on the internet. originally saw this story on TV. Was a Programmer that designed the RNG code for Casino Slot Machines and was going broke, and decided to play the slot machines he had designed the code for. he was able to win lots of money because he knew the secret RNG algorithm code for the Slot Machine.

I don’t think I would put much stock in something I sort of remember happening in some tv show and use it to back up anything.

It was a documentary. I wouldnt dismiss that simply because its on TV. thats like dismissing history because it posted on Wikipedia…

Knighthonor.4061:

Hey another think I want to point out, is that IF (big IF) the RNG is rigged for flagged accounts, Anet likely wouldnt tell us anyway. would you agree?

You mean if you asked someone “Are you cheating?” and they answer “No.”, how would you know if they are telling the truth? It’s often pointless to ask someone a question you don’t expect them to answer. You should approach the issue from another direction.

RNG is just that. Random Number Generator. You get a 5 and wanted a 7, too bad. You get gold instead of grey, good for you! It is a luck of the draw.

There have been people with 300+% Magic Find that have yet to find a Precursor, make one, or even see anything close to it’s worth. Sure they find more greens and yellows out of loot drops, but that equals to but a trickle of gold for them. And thus is the poor unlucky.

And then there are people like me who randomly toss in the couple of account-bound rares/exotics and pop out 2x Zaps in the span of a month. Not just two Precursors, but the same Precursor twice. No, that’s not a joke. It may be a sick joke against those that get nothing at all, but such is the way with luck. Ended up selling both and finally making a Bifrost.

Does that make me lucky? In some areas, sure. However I’ve also spent well over 20 … 30ish+ hours between Silverwastes and Dry Top this week with not a single Beta Portal to show for it. I swear I might have actually spent more time grinding for that thing than my Bifrost, and yet… See the results? R.N.G. Numbers are good in some cases but bad in others.

Knighthonor.4061:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Knighthonor.4061:

Behellagh.1468:

Knighthonor.4061:

Its not a conspiracy.

NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)

True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable. Plus it only repeats it’s sequence after 4×10^6001 numbers.

Here, where this. You’ll be in good company.

I cant find the story on the internet. originally saw this story on TV. Was a Programmer that designed the RNG code for Casino Slot Machines and was going broke, and decided to play the slot machines he had designed the code for. he was able to win lots of money because he knew the secret RNG algorithm code for the Slot Machine.

I don’t think I would put much stock in something I sort of remember happening in some tv show and use it to back up anything.

It was a documentary. I wouldnt dismiss that simply because its on TV. thats like dismissing history because it posted on Wikipedia…

So someone who developed a program with loopholes or bad RNG in it later took advantage of that and you are using this as an example of RNG problems? It sounds more like he was planning to do that, did it and got caught. Not quite the same.

The RNG for a slot machine with one person playing on it is likely far simpler than the RNG of a mmorpg with unknown numbers of people playing at one time.

Edit: later post said this happened 20 years ago. That makes a huge difference in the quality of RNG. Computer programing has come a very long way in 20 years.

Broken forums are broken

Shufflepants.9785:

stuff

The thing is there is proof but the legitimate stuff it is out of reach for both parties which still leaves both sides completely discredited. One side can point to an issue to investigating but cannot provide enough evidence that makes it worth it. The other side can easily dismiss it due to weak opposition but their counterpoint is as weak as their competitor’s simply because they can only chant phrases that are by default based on common sense to boost their point before they start sounding like they are BSing.

Christopher’s quote goes both ways. Neither side anything of substance to go on so both are dismissable.

RNG hasn’t changed since launch but the staff roster has. What makes you so sure then know exactly how it works? What makes you so sure that they’ve run the numbers? Arenanet isn’t going to come out and tell us and even if they did it wouldn’t be enough.

The only thing keeping the flagged account conspiracy going the the lack of information. You can’t simply dismiss it for sounding so farfetched because the fact is that it can happen. There can be an RNG system designed that way and companies can withhold information about it. They are allowed to and it happens. Until someone actually looks at the original code themselves, speculation is going to continue to run rampant.