Guild Wars 2

I’m reminded of the vendor from the Lunar Festival. Players could trade in gold for a chance envelope that could give prizes. If you had extra tokens (regional currency), you could buy a second batch of envelopes.

In retrospect, that’s a really good delivery system. It takes overabundance resources and turns them into option, targeted loot chances. The once-per-day limitation gives the markets time to adjust. It also stops the rewards from flooding in, similar to how much the Ascended material eaters work.

So.. here’s a thought on a multi-tiered reward system:

Tier 1: Overabundant resources trade to vendors.
This removes gold/material from the game at a decent pace, limited by a daily number of purchases.
Rewards at this tier are rare, but it provides a high chance to get tokens for the next tier up. The RNG nature of it keeps it from being guaranteed and calculated, but the high chance of advancement tokens gives a feeling of progression. (Because variable reward structures are evil but effective that way. >_>)

Tier 2: Reward Tokens from Tier 1 become higher opportunities for the same rare rewards, but at a higher success rate. Depending on factor, this could scale in tiers until “guaranteed” actually happens. But say, for example, a .01% chance on Tier 1 becomes .1% at Tier 2. As it goes forward, ‘failures’ on getting the rare drop still have a high chance to drop a Tier 3 token.

Tier X-1: Iterate Tier 2 until there is a guaranteed chance to get a random item of the highest tier. (As an example, a random exotic weapon skin.) If it’s account bound, also pitch in a very low chance to get a box with a full guarantee of reward, a box with a rare item of choice. It it remains unbound, then expect it to enter the trading post pool to help moderate market values.

I think it would be useful to explore how much of a benefit magic find really is. Myself and others experienced much better drops when we were below 50% magic find. I am now at 190% and I haven’t had an exotic drop from a boss bonus chest for a long time.

Does magic find really work?

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

I think it would be useful to explore how much of a benefit magic find really is. Myself and others experienced much better drops when we were below 50% magic find. I am now at 190% and I haven’t had an exotic drop from a boss bonus chest for a long time.

Does magic find really work?

It only affects drops directly off monsters, SW chests, and PvP boxes. It will have no impact on bonus chests. Essentially, MF became useless when champ bags were released and all loot centered around containers.

Maudey had a good balance of work/fun/reward loved doping it.
Considering RNG option 2 looks really great.

Ayrilana.1396:

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

I think it would be useful to explore how much of a benefit magic find really is. Myself and others experienced much better drops when we were below 50% magic find. I am now at 190% and I haven’t had an exotic drop from a boss bonus chest for a long time.

Does magic find really work?

It only affects drops directly off monsters, SW chests, and PvP boxes. It will have no impact on bonus chests. Essentially, MF became useless when champ bags were released and all loot centered around containers.

Might be time to fix that, then.

Zergs.9715:

I think that Anet hit the jackpot with introduction of Mawdrey. It removed rng and added complex but meaningful mix of interaction with environment and gathering. Its challenging but not in a “hurr durr get 250 charged lodestones” kind of way.

Yes, but it’s way easy to acquire, all things said.

The problem with relying less on RNG always comes down to how creative rarity and as a result of that bragging rights or a feeling of accomplishment.

Hey John! 20 pages or so of people not caring much for the RNG in this game and you add ecto gambling? You can do better and should do better.

Iason Evan.3806:

Hey John! 20 pages or so of people not caring much for the RNG in this game and you add ecto gambling? You can do better and should do better.

Um, no, that’s not what I read. I see people not enjoying some of the specific effects of RNG, but no where does someone offer an alternative that people prefer. People admit that there’s some excitement in not knowing exactly what drops and there’s a greater sense of grind with the fixed rewards of token systems. Plus, different people have different tolerances, which is why the game offers a mix of reward systems: tokens, RNG, player skill, etc. This game has changed the balance across such systems and might yet have to do it again; it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

Further, with regard to the ecto vendor, that is specifically designed as a sink, with enough incentives to get people to throw their wealth at it. It’s different from the idea of offering RNG rewards for content.

Rauderi.8706:

Ayrilana.1396:

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

I think it would be useful to explore how much of a benefit magic find really is. Myself and others experienced much better drops when we were below 50% magic find. I am now at 190% and I haven’t had an exotic drop from a boss bonus chest for a long time.

Does magic find really work?

It only affects drops directly off monsters, SW chests, and PvP boxes. It will have no impact on bonus chests. Essentially, MF became useless when champ bags were released and all loot centered around containers.

Might be time to fix that, then.

I don’t believe that the fact that more and more drops are being delivered in a way that completely bypasses MF is a mistake or accident. Quite the opposite.

Astralporing.1957:

I don’t believe that the fact that more and more drops are being delivered in a way that completely bypasses MF is a mistake or accident. Quite the opposite.

Oh, of course it isn’t an accident. I understand it was done as a choke on the rewards-faucet. But it’s still a rat-droppings thing to do after re-introducing magic find away from gear.

While locking magic find out of containers is a deliberate, morally-grey area, it does call back to Silverwastes and its progressive magic-find system. I can get behind that for more maps, actually.

To think of it, it might be nice to see other maps take that strategy on. Successfully complete dynamic events, get increasing stacks of MF bonus while on that map that includes bags. A potentially more equitable solution: make the bonus per stack equal to a portion of the account’s Magic Find.
Shrug and some easy math as an example: Stacks squared, max of 10 stacks, as a percentage of one’s magic find. So, with +300%MF, 1 stack is +3%, 8 stacks is +192%, etc. It would encourage players to stay on a map to do events.

RNG is very cruel with items when ur dealing with % of below 1%

Iason Evan.3806:

Hey John! 20 pages or so of people not caring much for the RNG in this game and you add ecto gambling? You can do better and should do better.

Actually its pretty clear they can’t or won’t do better.

I’d rather work towards a goal rather than deal with this games RNG anymore. Teq’s Hoard has been very infuriating for me to acquire, i’ve done it countless times, yet guidmates that just started playing got Hoard + Ascended chests. Grats to them, but the RNG system of this game can go to hell.

Carighan.6758:

Zergs.9715:

I think that Anet hit the jackpot with introduction of Mawdrey. It removed rng and added complex but meaningful mix of interaction with environment and gathering. Its challenging but not in a “hurr durr get 250 charged lodestones” kind of way.

Yes, but it’s way easy to acquire, all things said.

The problem with relying less on RNG always comes down to how creative rarity and as a result of that bragging rights or a feeling of accomplishment.

I wouldn’t say easy, but reasonable. There are multiple factors here that should be taken into account.

1. It still takes decent amount of time to complete it if you decide to craft everything.

2. Not everyone has all the crafts which can be an obstacle

3. Yes, ppl can just straight up buy everything but it still requires time to gather gold for all the required mats. This goes more in line with the initial “Play how you want” philosophy than anything else. This is what we were promised.

4. This is just one item we’re talking about here, with one set of stats of your choosing. Now imagine if all good items had such good structured crafting. It’d take quite some time to complete a full set. Of course with less artificial time gating and more player involvement which in itself would be a form of soft gating.

I know all this above may sound completely off topic, but I think it ties to RNG quite nicely. Post 80 progression has to be meaningful with a clear set of goals and ironed out path ahead. RNG provides none of that and just turns game into an elaborate slot machine.

To me the biggest issue with random drop chance is that the activities you have to do to get that chance are overly specific usually. If there is a 0.2% chance to get a certain item from a certain world boss and I really want that item then I have to fight that same boss as often as I possibly can. Every single time it’s up I have to schlog there and fight it, every day, multiple times per day if possible.

That’s what ultimately kills the fun in “random drops” because it really isn’t all that random. If the item had just as much of a chance to appear on a bandit as it did on some world boss there would still be that possibility of it suddenly showing up and totally making someones day, without absolutely trashing the freedom to play their own way of people who really want the item. You simply don’t encounter the item randomly if you know exactly what monster you have to farm for it, the only thing that’s random at that point is how much of your time you have to invest into an activity that most likely isn’t your favorite thing in the game.

Maybe instead of dropping stuff like precursors from specific monsters there should simply be a random loot reward whenever an 80 goes up a level. You could still farm levels if you want to generate a lot of chances to get the item, but at least you could do whatever you enjoy to get those.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

First of all I’d like to apologize, since I’ve not had the time to read the past 20 pages…

Personally, I think the main problem with being unlucky in terms of RNG is, that you’ll be level 80 without equipment which has the Max. Stats, which will especially upset the players of GW1.

Also, while GW2 features the Dynamic Level Adjustment, which by all means is a great idea, you’ll rarely find lvl 80 players in low level environment, as the loot just doesn’t give them anything promising. Given the rather fast level-gain in GW2, this usually leaves the low-level areas a bit underpopulated, which may even spoil the impression of new Players.

So… would it not be a good idea to give some form of currency to high-level players for playing in low-level areas (let’s say 40 or below), which they could use to obtain Armor and Weapons with the highest stats?

Of course it should have very simple skins and Players should have to use skins/transmutation charges if they want it to look like something, and the time needed to gain enough of the currency to purchase something with it should be appropriate.

I think this would allow high lvls without the “good stuff” to play in an environment where they don’t feel inferior and don’t have to depend on RNG. While at the same time populating the lower lvl areas with expirienced players.

You don’t go to boss events much do you because it’s full of level 80s in low level zones. Also dailies drive level 80 players into low level zones. The last exotic drop I got was from killing some random thing in Wayfarer Foothills while I was strip mining the map waiting for Maw.

Behellagh.1468:

You don’t go to boss events much do you because it’s full of level 80s in low level zones. Also dailies drive level 80 players into low level zones. The last exotic drop I got was from killing some random thing in Wayfarer Foothills while I was strip mining the map waiting for Maw.

^

On top of that, you don’t know what the other char’s level is unless you party up with them. They will be down leveled and the adjusted level will be all you see. You don’t know if they are a level 80 or if they are low level. The low level maps can have a lot of level 80s in them, farming or doing dailies.

I personally think that there are several good systems that would work to bypass the negatives of RNG. But I don’t see them working right now cause it comes down on judging what item is a lucky item and what isn’t.

to explain a small example. The game currently sees the pile of putrid essence as equall (in value) as a charged lodestone. Reality is that the value of a charged lodestone is much higher.

The problem with RNG is not the RNG itself. it is that some items can only be found by RNG and are so rare they are extremely high priced. Luck is a bad rewardsystem for a game.

In my system there would change a few things. The first is that RNG only drops items that are not extreme rare. So all things that drop from foes should atleast drop once every 10 hours of active gameplay. Anything that drops less should not drop at all.

The second thing to change would be the exit of karma. Not all of a sudden, but slowly by just stopping to reward it. currently karma is used in parts of legendaries, certain gearsets and for some minor items like food. These food items could actually be moved to RNG-drops. As for the rest:

The thrid thing would be the introduction of a replacement currency for karma. You gain it in the same way as karma, the only difference is that you can purchase non-accountbound items (bound on equip) with it and. This includes the very rare RNG-items (including precursors). This means that getting a precursor requires you to play the game (a lot) and not just dumb luck.

Why not just keep karma? the reason is that it will increase the usefullness of karma a lot. till now a lot of people have been stacking it. This would be an advantage that is too big.

How to prevent trading newkarma for gold and vice versa??
The way to fix this is by recognising three stages of a product in game.
1: raw materials
2: intermediate goods
3: end products

While raw materials and (most) endproducts are sellable for gold. intermediate goods are not. the things you can buy with newkarma would always be intermediate goods. You can mix them with raw materials (dropped by RNG) to create end products. The end products have a gold value (except for certain items you dont want on the market like the karma skins), but the intermediate goods only have value for the crafter.

So for example (filling in some random numbers). to make a legendary you still need a lot of raw materials to make the 3 gifts as well as a precursor. The precursor can be bought for e.g. 2,000,000 karma and will be accountbound. Only if you also get the raw materials and actually craft the legendary, you will be able to craft a legendary.

Why this “newkarma”. The idea behind it is that RNG is bad for extreme rare items. This is a system where you can choose your own reward instead of getting a lotteryticket as a reward. You can use your newkarma on small nitbits all the time, or you can spare it up to buy something big. For those who want to be lucky, I’m all up for still having a lottery with tickets you can buy with newkarma (take the halloween raffle as an example).

Just my two cents.

Zergs.9715:

I know all this above may sound completely off topic, but I think it ties to RNG quite nicely. Post 80 progression has to be meaningful with a clear set of goals and ironed out path ahead. RNG provides none of that and just turns game into an elaborate slot machine.

Hrm, true. Hadn’t considered how the total effort would be if basically every item had its own Mawdrey-chain.

Fair enough.

I agree then, more like this please!

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Behellagh.1468:

You don’t go to boss events much do you because it’s full of level 80s in low level zones. Also dailies drive level 80 players into low level zones. The last exotic drop I got was from killing some random thing in Wayfarer Foothills while I was strip mining the map waiting for Maw.

^

On top of that, you don’t know what the other char’s level is unless you party up with them. They will be down leveled and the adjusted level will be all you see. You don’t know if they are a level 80 or if they are low level. The low level maps can have a lot of level 80s in them, farming or doing dailies.

I’m not referring to Boss Events etc. but the low-level Zones etc. as a whole.

Mike.3460:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Behellagh.1468:

You don’t go to boss events much do you because it’s full of level 80s in low level zones. Also dailies drive level 80 players into low level zones. The last exotic drop I got was from killing some random thing in Wayfarer Foothills while I was strip mining the map waiting for Maw.

^

On top of that, you don’t know what the other char’s level is unless you party up with them. They will be down leveled and the adjusted level will be all you see. You don’t know if they are a level 80 or if they are low level. The low level maps can have a lot of level 80s in them, farming or doing dailies.

I’m not referring to Boss Events etc. but the low-level Zones etc. as a whole.

And I was talking about the low level zones as a whole. For example,my level 80s are rarely in the level 80 maps. They tend to be in the mid to upper level maps but they are in the low level maps also. And you would never know if saw me, since you can’t tell by the char level. I doubt that I’m unusual. I see my friends chars in the non 80 zones also a lot.

If we’re still discussing this; the second concept sounds very good, I know that diablo 3 does it and it works out very well, if you haven’t had a legendary drop in 2 hours, the drop rate starts increasing until you find one (that’s two hours of active play). Of course… that is a game without a trading economy, I’m not too sure how it’d affect the economy but I really wouldn’t like to be that one receiving no rewards either.

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Luck does play a part. There is a chance of course, that one player could never have an equipment drop, or exotic, It wouldn’t matter how much you play, what you’re saying right now is gambler’s fallacy, there ARE unlucky accounts, and people do quit because of it.

Xbon.9086:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Luck does play a part. There is a chance of course, that one player could never have an equipment drop, or exotic, It wouldn’t matter how much you play, what you’re saying right now is gambler’s fallacy, there ARE unlucky accounts, and people do quit because of it.

One account is not inherently different than another. The chance of one account getting 10 precursor drops is the same as any other account getting the same. There’s no internal variable or flag that makes a particular account “luckier” than another.

Ayrilana.1396:

Xbon.9086:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Luck does play a part. There is a chance of course, that one player could never have an equipment drop, or exotic, It wouldn’t matter how much you play, what you’re saying right now is gambler’s fallacy, there ARE unlucky accounts, and people do quit because of it.

One account is not inherently different than another. The chance of one account getting 10 precursor drops is the same as any other account getting the same. There’s no internal variable or flag that makes a particular account “luckier” than another.

There is no need to have a “flag” on an account to be “luckier” or “unluckier”. RNG being what it is, there is (very few) edge cases where the account almost get nothing. So in theory yup, the chances are the same (and you can count on the devs to try to make it the closest possible). In practice, you’ll have an edge case “10 pre drops” and and edge case “nothing drop”, and a lot of case in between.

Kordash.2197:

Ayrilana.1396:

Xbon.9086:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Luck does play a part. There is a chance of course, that one player could never have an equipment drop, or exotic, It wouldn’t matter how much you play, what you’re saying right now is gambler’s fallacy, there ARE unlucky accounts, and people do quit because of it.

One account is not inherently different than another. The chance of one account getting 10 precursor drops is the same as any other account getting the same. There’s no internal variable or flag that makes a particular account “luckier” than another.

There is no need to have a “flag” on an account to be “luckier” or “unluckier”. RNG being what it is, there is (very few) edge cases where the account almost get nothing. So in theory yup, the chances are the same (and you can count on the devs to try to make it the closest possible). In practice, you’ll have an edge case “10 pre drops” and and edge case “nothing drop”, and a lot of case in between.

The argument was about some accounts being inherently luckier than others which is untrue. Your qualitative observations of one account being luckier than another (in the sense that I believe you’re using it) is based on what’s observered in the short run rather than long run where things tend to average out. You may still have a few outliers due to chance of probability. The chance of any account being one of those outliers is the same as another.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Of course there are unlucky accounts, even if its not because of something in the code they can still be simply unlucky.

Ayrilana.1396:

Kordash.2197:

Ayrilana.1396:

Xbon.9086:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Luck does play a part. There is a chance of course, that one player could never have an equipment drop, or exotic, It wouldn’t matter how much you play, what you’re saying right now is gambler’s fallacy, there ARE unlucky accounts, and people do quit because of it.

One account is not inherently different than another. The chance of one account getting 10 precursor drops is the same as any other account getting the same. There’s no internal variable or flag that makes a particular account “luckier” than another.

There is no need to have a “flag” on an account to be “luckier” or “unluckier”. RNG being what it is, there is (very few) edge cases where the account almost get nothing. So in theory yup, the chances are the same (and you can count on the devs to try to make it the closest possible). In practice, you’ll have an edge case “10 pre drops” and and edge case “nothing drop”, and a lot of case in between.

The argument was about some accounts being inherently luckier than others which is untrue. Your qualitative observations of one account being luckier than another (in the sense that I believe you’re using it) is based on what’s observered in the short run rather than long run where things tend to average out. You may still have a few outliers due to chance of probability. The chance of any account being one of those outliers is the same as another.

Once again, mathematically speaking, you’re right. Read again, and read the OP of this thread, it’s clearly stated that edge cases (though very rare) DOES happen (on the long run).

That doesn’t mean the accounts doesn’t have the same chances at getting precursors. That just mean they falls in the edge case of the RNG.

In short :
- All accounts have the same chance at getting precursors
- In practice (confirmed by devs), edge cases with very lucky ones and very unlucky ones happen (they still have the same chance at getting precursors, but in practice some gets more)

Kordash.2197:

Ayrilana.1396:

Kordash.2197:

Ayrilana.1396:

Xbon.9086:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Zok.4956:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

it’s not likely to be as “fun” if they entirely remove RNG from the reward system.

For the “unlucky accounts” it would be much more fun without RNG.

Except that there aren’t any “unlucky” accounts; all accounts have the same chances. Play enough, you’ll get good drops and bad ones. If you don’t play often, then it hardly matters.

Luck does play a part. There is a chance of course, that one player could never have an equipment drop, or exotic, It wouldn’t matter how much you play, what you’re saying right now is gambler’s fallacy, there ARE unlucky accounts, and people do quit because of it.

One account is not inherently different than another. The chance of one account getting 10 precursor drops is the same as any other account getting the same. There’s no internal variable or flag that makes a particular account “luckier” than another.

There is no need to have a “flag” on an account to be “luckier” or “unluckier”. RNG being what it is, there is (very few) edge cases where the account almost get nothing. So in theory yup, the chances are the same (and you can count on the devs to try to make it the closest possible). In practice, you’ll have an edge case “10 pre drops” and and edge case “nothing drop”, and a lot of case in between.

The argument was about some accounts being inherently luckier than others which is untrue. Your qualitative observations of one account being luckier than another (in the sense that I believe you’re using it) is based on what’s observered in the short run rather than long run where things tend to average out. You may still have a few outliers due to chance of probability. The chance of any account being one of those outliers is the same as another.

Once again, mathematically speaking, you’re right. Read again, and read the OP of this thread, it’s clearly stated that edge cases (though very rare) DOES happen (on the long run).

That doesn’t mean the accounts doesn’t have the same chances at getting precursors. That just mean they falls in the edge case of the RNG.

In short :
- All accounts have the same chance at getting precursors
- In practice (confirmed by devs), edge cases with very lucky ones and very unlucky ones happen (they still have the same chance at getting precursors, but in practice some gets more)

I was not referring to the OP’s post…

And everything else you said was pretty much what I had already said more or less. What’s your point?

Misread your first post seems. End of the week is hard, sorry for that ><

Kordash.2197:

Misread your first post seems. End of the week is hard, sorry for that ><

It’s no problem. I’ve done it many times before as well.

Ayrilana.1396:

Kordash.2197:

Misread your first post seems. End of the week is hard, sorry for that ><

It’s no problem. I’ve done it many times before as well.

when I say unlucly accounts, you should know what I mean by that; rather, unlucky players, people can be unlucky, and what you explained in what I initially quoted is gambler’s fallacy, think if something has a 1/250 chance, by a simple formula you can see that the way to get 99% chance (should you not have had a drop yet) is about 1130~ tries, however, there is no way to get 100% chance, there’s a possibility that one person never gets something that is very common to others, those outliers should be fixed.

Didn’t read all of the posts, but I’m kinda catching the vibe…

How about letting players decide if they want their randomly-generated high risk/high reward result OR their “slow and steady wins the race” result?

For example, combining 4 exotics for a precursor in the Mystic Forge can either let you go for the prec straightforward, or give you some sort of currency that you can trade in for a prec in the long run.

Same with known specific drops (from World Bosses, for example). We can either gamble and try to get the weapon, or start saving small amounts of currency for that weapon, but not both.

That might shift the attention from the CONSTANT chestfarming that’s been the plague of GW lately (since anything you need can be bought with gold, which can be gained in the Silverwastes more easily than anywhere else).

And let the player live with their “gambly” or safe choice.

PS: This is different than the forementioned “give the loser something to keep him going”, since it involves consciously giving up your right to small rewards in order to try your luck for the big fish. Something like opening your champ bags on a level 50 (steady rewards) vs a level 80 (chance at a precursor) character.

Xbon.9086:

Ayrilana.1396:

Kordash.2197:

Misread your first post seems. End of the week is hard, sorry for that ><

It’s no problem. I’ve done it many times before as well.

when I say unlucly accounts, you should know what I mean by that; rather, unlucky players, people can be unlucky, and what you explained in what I initially quoted is gambler’s fallacy, think if something has a 1/250 chance, by a simple formula you can see that the way to get 99% chance (should you not have had a drop yet) is about 1130~ tries, however, there is no way to get 100% chance, there’s a possibility that one person never gets something that is very common to others, those outliers should be fixed.

Please don’t throw “gambler’s fallacy” around without understanding it or what people are saying.

Ayrilana.1396:

Xbon.9086:

Ayrilana.1396:

Kordash.2197:

Misread your first post seems. End of the week is hard, sorry for that ><

It’s no problem. I’ve done it many times before as well.

when I say unlucly accounts, you should know what I mean by that; rather, unlucky players, people can be unlucky, and what you explained in what I initially quoted is gambler’s fallacy, think if something has a 1/250 chance, by a simple formula you can see that the way to get 99% chance (should you not have had a drop yet) is about 1130~ tries, however, there is no way to get 100% chance, there’s a possibility that one person never gets something that is very common to others, those outliers should be fixed.

Please don’t throw “gambler’s fallacy” around without understanding it or what people are saying.

There is so much wrong there.. Gamblers fallacy is when you throw a dice 6 times you always pick the same number because it must drop at some point.. While not picking random numbers because the 1 might drop when you guessed 6 and the 6 dropped when you guessed 1.

This is a false idea.. You simply have 6 times a 1/6 possibility the number you pick drops, whatever number you pick

Another example would be the Roulette, where it was 3 times red and so now you pick black because black has to drop at some point.. But in reality it does not matter what you pick. The possibility red or black drops is the same.

At the same time, many people also use that wrong by suggesting RNG is always completely random because your previous runs don’t increase your chance that the next one will be bigger.

And this is right and false at the same time.. Yes, the possibility it drops stays the same.. however the possibility it keeps not dropping drops, because your total number of runs gets higher. (will come back on that later).

RNG can be great.. It creates a rush of “Will it drop” and if it does “Yes it dropped”. Something currency and direct rewards won’t do. (While really challenging content can create a similar feeling for beetling it). But RNG needs to be reasonable or doable. What this really means is that the drop-rate is within decent numbers compared to the times you would do the content.

Many talk here about how RNG means you need to pray to the RNG-gods, but this would only be true when it’s unreasonable RNG, so like when you have 12 tries to guess a number between 0 and 1000. Then you have to pray to the RNG-gods yes (not that it will help anything).

But with the 1/250 Xbon’s example it is false, especially the way he uses it (while it depends on the content.. is it something you would be fine with doing 250 times?). First of all, you should not try to get to 100% but to get >50% (the possibility is higher to get it, then it is to not get it).

With a drop-rate of 1/250 it means then when you do 173 runs the chance it has dropped is higher then that it did not drop. Basically you start praying to the RNG-gods if you would NOT want it to drop when doing 173 runs or more!
So trying to dismiss that drop-rate (by making it look bad) with numbers as 1130 because you try to get to 100% only shows how you don’t understand how it works.. and frankly that is true for most of the RNG-haters. Yes it’s possible it did not drop after 1130 runs, but the chance it did NOT drop after those 1130 runs is about 1%.

RNG is fine, it’s even great. It creates re-playability and adds the rush of “Will it drop” as long as the drop-rate is reasonable! The hate for it is just based on incorrect assumptions / not understanding the maths or focusing to much on the 1% it can not drop in 1130 runs (in this last example) instead of the >50% it will drop in 173 runs.

If I had to pick between content that required me to do it 173 times to earn the currency to buy the item, or that has a drop-rate for the item I like of 1/250, I would take that RNG version every time. If you do that with all the content your average number of runs will be about the same as with the currency (some times you might only need 50 runs, another time you need 300), so not much changes there. But the currency feels like a boring grind while the RNG version always gives you the rush of “Will it drop.”.

[Interesting link for those who have a hard time getting these numbers: http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/ ]

Disclaimer This post is based in my opinion so if I ever say “we” don´t assume I´m speaking for all f the comunity.This post considers “getting a reward” as getting the item as the prize of some activity so TP is excluded. Also forgive the salt (and bad english).

Now the Mordrem events have passed and the keyfarm is heavily nerfed, let´s have a talk about the reward we can (or cannot) get on GW2.
This game bases a big part of its rewards on RNG based drops. This means that the only thin you can do in orde to get the item you want is hope that you are lucky and repeat the same content over and over again.
This is not right.
RNG sistems are cool as an alternative way to get things “Oh while i was doing X to get Y I got this shiny Z by random .Cool!” but it isn´t right when RNG is the only way to get those things you want. It doesn´t give the player the progress sensation. It´s simply yes or not. And almost always is not.
So we could say the Rules of a Good Reward are the following:

-Make sure the amount of things you have to do to get the reward is fair and fun. The experience of playing the game to get the shiny can be part of the reward.

-The player gets to know the progression to their goal such as collections or token sistems.

-No reward should be gone forever.

So let´s see what is done good and what´s bad.

The good(-ish):
-Legendary weapons: (This one takes the precursor hunting from HoT as a fact.) Legendaries are unique, rare and expensive. You have to travel around the world, collect the finest materials and find a precursor. Ypu can get it by RNG or by the safe route of the precursor hunting. At the end of the journey you are sure you get that weapon you long for. It was hard and time consuming but it was worth wasn´t it?

-Mystic weapons (The anomaly-ish): As Legendries you get what you want at the end. can be expensive but fair.

-Dungeon weapons/armor: The currency is always given when u finish a path or go trough a PVP route. You know what you´ll get and when.

-PVP routes:As dungeon tokens you know that no matter what at the end of the glorous route you will get a box of armor of your choice.

(I am aware that there are other well done reward types but let´s focus on the most remarkable)

The okay(-ish):
-Elemental weapons: Some recipes as Volcanus are done by a static recipe on the mistyc forge such as the Anomaly type. The flaw of these are the loadstones. There are RNG based and really rare so there´s no a real way to get these (Tp excluded look at the disclaimer). If loadstones could be farmed by any way these weapons would be good.

-Spinal blades like content: If you wanted these you had to be there. Even if you didn´t know GW2 at that time. If u have a watchwork mining node and the blueprints you can still get those today though. Making the essential parts available again by any (non RNG) means would make these fair.

The bad (and ugly): Note: Fair reward systems that have RNG at some point such as Elemental weapons aren´t right. The whole process must follow the rules.
-Actual exotic skins: There are dropped everywhere and nowhere at the same time. You have a chance these will drop.. or not. Things as Bonetti´s rappier or Genesis don´t have an actual way to get them more than RNG. This is not right. Create new mystic reciper for them or some form of token system so we can get´em.

-Unreachable content (tribal armor and such): These were lost with the wardrove overhaul (I guess) and are no longer available. There ´s no reason to not to be able to get these. They could be back as a reward of a PVP track.

-Black Lion ticket skins (Unexpected right?): These are the worst of all reward systems I´ve ever seen. Its a RNG dropped key that opens a RNG dropped chest in order to give you a RNG number of RNG items. One of these items may (or may not) be tickets wich also come as a RNG pieces. This makes four layers of RNG. This makes a lot of chances of not being happy with your reward. Because lots of those items aren´t even worth it.
Yes yes you can buy keys in order to get past off the first of the four RNG layers. But there´s still three chances of being sad plus the overpriced cost of a key. Black Lion skins still break the two first Good Reward Rules.
Now that keyfarm is almost dead, there´s no way to get keys that is worth. I´m not willing to spend gems on a chance because opening a chest is not worth the cost of the key. Also the key drops are too low.
This should be adressed by restoring keyfarm (optional but IMO cool) or/and over all the rest measures getting a safe way to get the tickets. I want to be sure that after the journey I will get my skin.

TLDR: There should be a safe and sure way to get the reward and never should be RNG based. RNG is cool as an alternative way but never as the only way.

I am aware of a post made by anet where they discussed (more or less) this issue but seems it got forgotten. Here it is if someone want o read it or necro it:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first
I support the 2.5-ish.

Please discuss. I´m sure Anet read our opinions and all together can make this game better. For a more rewarding game.

I would +1 this more than once if I could.

IndigoSundown.5419:

You’re a little late to the party.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first

This just went to page 2…

That´s why I linked that post. I saw that one fall into oblivion and i though that a fresh discussion would let us advance in a good direction.

stale.9785:

I would +1 this more than once if I could.

Thank u man. Do you have any idea that would make rewards better?

Regarding the black lion chest I completely agree with the statement there is terrible price/reward ratio, but I think the nerf to key farming is a good thing. Now they can seriously buff the drops from the chest to make them good. (For example 2-3 scraps from every chest and the rest random)
Regarding the rest of the post, I agree with some, but not all. Cool thing would be that specific items would drop more on specific places. Flame skin like Volcanus could drop as low chance drop from CoF. Low chance, but much higher than other skins. For example there is 0,1% to drop random exotic, but 1%chance to drop Volcanus.

On the other hand there will be a lot of people who are happy with the system as it is, because they can do whatever they want and have a chance to get the stuff as opposite to system where specific stuff has chance to drop on specific places.

Ihales.3820:

Regarding the black lion chest I completely agree with the statement there is terrible price/reward ratio, but I think the nerf to key farming is a good thing. Now they can seriously buff the drops from the chest to make them good. (For example 2-3 scraps from every chest and the rest random)
Regarding the rest of the post, I agree with some, but not all. Cool thing would be that specific items would drop more on specific places. Flame skin like Volcanus could drop as low chance drop from CoF. Low chance, but much higher than other skins. For example there is 0,1% to drop random exotic, but 1%chance to drop Volcanus.

On the other hand there will be a lot of people who are happy with the system as it is, because they can do whatever they want and have a chance to get the stuff as opposite to system where specific stuff has chance to drop on specific places.

The issue for me is that the rewards in the chests haven’t scaled well with the inflation. When 5 keys cost me 25-35 gold, I was fine with what was in them. They rewards haven’t gotten much better and the keys cost way more in terms of gold. Buying gems with gold and with real money were both supposed to be what ArenaNet intended so scale the rewards to match the cost.*

If I am gonna buy gems with money I sure as heck am not going to gamble on BL chests when I can just get gold with my gems and buy the weapons skins since they are the only thing of any worth in the chests anyways.

As far as drops go, I just got back into playing the game after a 7 month absence where I was just getting my login reward off of my two accounts. The RNG in PvP is awful. I can be running 300% magic find and I get blues and greens. In the last 3 days in PvP I have gotten 3 golds. That is nowhere near what I have gotten in PvE and I have spent less than 25% of my time in the last 3 days doing PvE. The RNG needs to be better for PvP. The people who could care less about rewards in PvP won’t mind and those of us that play PvP and PvE will really appreciate it.

I am also so incredibly tired of the arbitrary gold sinks. Stop belittling our intelligence by saying that reward vendors like the one in the Mrrdremoth Invasion Event are Reward Vendors. They are gold sinks. To me, the RNG goes hand in hand with how you are using your words to describe what we are doing. *

My advice to ArenaNet: Be honest in describing events, rewards, and odds of winning. Make the game more fun by making it more rewarding, and stop layering RNG on top of RNG.

Disclaimer: I base my answers on math.
This comment is mainly to show how most of the RNG-haters focus way to much on the RNG as being used in GW2, forgetting that is can also be used in a good way. It has really become a blind hate where the focus has moved to the unrealistic low chance something might never drop instead of the mathematical numbers of runs a RNG item would take you to drop based on a given drop-rate.

Arkanthor.2307:

This game bases a big part of its rewards on RNG based drops.

Mostly extremely low RNG but with items that drop from a lot of places.. Something I am also against.. But that type of RNG is hugely different from a more doable RNG where one item drops from one place (when an item drops from one place the RNG can also be more doable).

So not all the RNG is the same.. seeing how you talk about the RNG in GW2 I presume you are talking about the RNG as we see it mostly in GW2 (or you might not clearly thouth about the different types).

Arkanthor.2307:

This means that the only thin you can do in orde to get the item you want is hope that you are lucky and repeat the same content over and over again.

For the RNG as mostly applied in GW2 this is true. It’s even worse.. Hoping something drops is pretty meaningless, better you look at what grinds reward the best currency, grind that and buy the item.

For the more doable RNG for one item that drops from one place this is false. With a 1/250 drop-rate it’s not really anything about hope.. On average you will need to do those things 173 times for it to drop, you might be very unlucky and drops the 500th run, or very lucky and it drops the first run. But the possibility it does never drop for you (when doing the right amount of runs) is extremely low.. You would have to hope for it not to drop.. not hope for it to drop.

Arkanthor.2307:

RNG sistems are cool as an alternative way to get things _"Oh while i was doing X to get Y I got this shiny Z by random .

This is indeed bad and something you have with the RNG as implemented in GW2. Again, not so much with the RNG as I suggest. I however think (my) RNG can be a good way to get things, where you also have a currency to get other things along the way. And there should be guaranteed rewards as well. That is a good mix.

Arkanthor.2307:

Cool!"_ but it isn´t right when RNG is the only way to get those things you want.

However, there should only be one way per item ideally. Else people will just do whatever turns out to be the fastest / easiest creating a grind.

Arkanthor.2307:

It doesn´t give the player the progress sensation. It´s simply yes or not. And almost always is not.

Again, with the RNG as used now yeah true. With the RNG I talked about no.. When you know the drop-rate is 1 / 250 there is the magical number of 173 to focus on. That is no grantee but it is something you can focus on. It’s fictional but it works. How does it work.. well as you say “And almost always is not” doing more runs then 172 and getting the drop is almost always a yes.

Arkanthor.2307:

-Make sure the amount of things you have to do to get the reward is fair and fun. The experience of playing the game to get the shiny can be part of the reward.

That, I sort of agree with. With RNG there is the possibility it does drop the first run what is first.. I am guessing you are more focusing on the possibility it did still not drop after 345 runs. But overall it’s fine if you use the correct RNG. So lets say you think an item should require you to do about 173 runs, you make the drop-rate 1/250.. Not 1/10 or 1/10000.

Arkanthor.2307:

-The player gets to know the progression to their goal such as collections or token sistems.

Very much no to this! Well for a few items, but not exactly knowing that makes it more fun. Currency (tokens are a currency) is boring and feels like a grind.

Again the 1/250 drop-rate would require about 173 runs of the content where every run rewards you 1 token.

Doing that you just simply see this number slowly going up, one by one by one. This is extremely boring and feels grindy.. Reward-wise there is nothing interesting about doing the first run, or the second, or the third. The drop is not exciting and when you do finally get to the 173th run it’s still not very exciting because you know (for the last 172 runs) that you will get the reward after that run. Only thinking about it already makes me feel boring and wants me pull me hair out.

With the RNG version of a 1/250 drop-rate there is always the rush of “Will it drop”, and the “YEAAHH!! It dropped.” That little uncertainty makes it more fun, while at the same time it’s not completely uncertain.

Arkanthor.2307:

-No reward should be gone forever.

True.

Arkanthor.2307:

-Mystic weapons (The anomaly-ish): As Legendries you get what you want at the end. can be expensive but fair.

You forget that many of those weapons require material you can’t really work towards other then grinding (what is also RNG-based) for gold to but them.. This because those items you need are being rewarded with the bad RNG-system.

So for the weapons where this applies (what is most of them) is is in fact an example of a bad, not a good. Now if there would be more direct less general bad RNG /grind to get those mats.. then this would be a good example.. But currently it’s a bad one.
PS: I noticed now that a little later you indeed say this is bad.

Arkanthor.2307:

-Dungeon weapons/armor: The currency is always given when u finish a path or go trough a PVP route. You know what you´ll get and when.

As a side reward from a dungeon, yes. As the main reward people would be after no. Personally I see most of those items as side rewards (while the dungeon lacking main rewards). So yeah then it’s good.

Arkanthor.2307:

-Actual exotic skins: There are dropped everywhere and nowhere at the same time. You have a chance these will drop.. or not. Things as Bonetti´s rappier or Genesis don´t have an actual way to get them more than RNG. This is not right.

I completely agree.. But want to mention again.. this is because of the way RNG and drops are implemented.. not just because RNG is involved. With good RNG this would not be a problem.

Arkanthor.2307:

-Unreachable content (tribal armor and such): These were lost with the wardrove overhaul (I guess) and are no longer available.

Agree but not related to any RNG.

Arkanthor.2307:

-Black Lion ticket skins (Unexpected right?):

Agree.

Arkanthor.2307:

TLDR: There should be a safe and sure way to get the reward and never should be RNG based. RNG is cool as an alternative way but never as the only way.

RNG can be pretty safe and secure. It’s not, the way it’s implemented but in GW2 mostly, but good RNG is very (not 100%, but still very) safe and secure.

Arkanthor.2307:

For a more rewarding game.

The game rewards a lot, biggest problem is does not feel rewarding, and the rewarding needs to be fun.. Be careful with your words, before we know it we get free chests for every 10 min we are online, and get a stack of 250 purses for every kill. And that will not make it feel any more rewarding.

Arkanthor.2307:

I support the 2.5-ish.

Me too.. if the token-system is also for a secondary reward.. not for the same one as the main reward obviously. But honestly, seeing how RNG is implemented in GW2, 1, 2 and 2.5 are all bad.

To prevent a person from really having to do something to many times you could make it so if it did not drop after x run (with the 1/250 I would think a number between 345 and 500), it will always drop one for sure..

As developer I would not tell the player this but say something like “We have a system in place to prevent you from never getting the reward if you really do it a lot but are very unlucky” There is no real need for it, but it might help to take away this unfounded fair some people have about the possibility RNG results in never dropping a reward for you.

Serious question for the players.

Players: Do you like RNG stacked on top of RNG? What is the context? Halloween last year. We got Trick or Treat Bags that had an RNG chance at a lottery ticket that gave you a separate RNG Lottery odds chance at getting a weapon skin. 2nd Example: Black Lion Keys that you purchase or get very rarely as a drop give you a chance at a ticket or a scrap that you could combine with 9 other scraps to get a weapon. Is that the type of RNG you want to see employed in this game? Do you enjoy RNG that gives you a chance for another chance or would you rather it be a single chance?

What I personally am seeing from this is not design that challenges existing norms in the MMO space. I see the design of RNG as towing the line and even dipping below the lines of quality of the standard of the MMO space into mobile quality style RNG.

Here’s an article that sheds some light on some of the tactics that mobile devs employ to sqeeze as much water from the whale rock as they possibly can and it’s super gross and I feel like ArenaNet has gravitated more to this style of RNG than away from it in recent years.

http://toucharcade.com/2015/09/16/we-own-you-confessions-of-a-free-to-play-producer/

Iason Evan.3806:

Serious question for the players.

Players: Do you like RNG stacked on top of RNG? What is the context? Halloween last year. We got Trick or Treat Bags that had an RNG chance at a lottery ticket that gave you a separate RNG Lottery odds chance at getting a weapon skin. 2nd Example: Black Lion Keys that you purchase or get very rarely as a drop give you a chance at a ticket or a scrap that you could combine with 9 other scraps to get a weapon. Is that the type of RNG you want to see employed in this game? Do you enjoy RNG that gives you a chance for another chance or would you rather it be a single chance?

What I personally am seeing from this is not design that challenges existing norms in the MMO space. I see the design of RNG as towing the line and even dipping below the lines of quality of the standard of the MMO space into mobile quality style RNG.

Here’s an article that sheds some light on some of the tactics that mobile devs employ to sqeeze as much water from the whale rock as they possibly can and it’s super gross and I feel like ArenaNet has gravitated more to this style of RNG than away from it in recent years.

http://toucharcade.com/2015/09/16/we-own-you-confessions-of-a-free-to-play-producer/

Considering I spoke to a player today who told me he had FIFTY tickets, bought when gold—>gems was cheaper, I would say that there are people out there who don’t mind being Whales buying RNG items.

I prefer concept #2 implementation. It gives hope, even if only a little, to those of us sitting at the lower-end that we might actually get those cool drops everyone else gets

Devata.6589:

Disclaimer: I base my answers on math.
This comment is mainly to show how most of the RNG-hater focus way to much on the RNG as being used in GW2, forgetting that is can also be used in a good way. It has really become a blind hate where the focus has moved to the unrealistic low chance something might never drop instead of the mathematical numbers of runs a RNG item would take you to drop based on a given drop-rate.

(…)

I like your post. But let me ask you one thing: How does your RNG concept works? It is like “if I dont get it I will be more likely to get it next time”?

Arkanthor.2307:

Devata.6589:

Disclaimer: I base my answers on math.
This comment is mainly to show how most of the RNG-hater focus way to much on the RNG as being used in GW2, forgetting that is can also be used in a good way. It has really become a blind hate where the focus has moved to the unrealistic low chance something might never drop instead of the mathematical numbers of runs a RNG item would take you to drop based on a given drop-rate.

(…)

I like your post. But let me ask you one thing: How does your RNG concept works? It is like “if I dont get it I will be more likely to get it next time”?

Well yes and no.. It’s not so much “my RNG” is just how RNG works when it’s more doable.. (so reasonable drop-rate) and when you make a reward drop from one place it can be lower then when it drops from many places.

The problem here is that people look at the RNG the way it’s used in GW2 and then start to hate it, not seeing it for what it is.. When you talk about 1/250 drop-rate what they see is 1/250 what is a lot, and the next run it’s again 1/250 so the possibility it drops is always far away in their eyes.

But while every run indeed is 1/250 (your previous run dos not increase your change for the next run) it’s still a mathematical truth that if you do 173 or more runs, there is a bigger possibility it will have dropped for you then it did not.

It’s this truth people just can’t seem to see because of the blind hate for RNG. Like you see in this thread, they are like.. Well even with 1130 runs you are not 100% sure it drops, it might never drop.. And yes that is truth.. But the possibility it did not drop after 1130% is about 1%.. So they are focusing on this one percent (or do not understand the math) and base their idea’s about RNG on that.. Well it’s not a good idea to base your idea’s on incorrect information.

Having an one specific item drop from one specific boss with a drop-rate of 1/250 is similar (not exactly the same, but similar) to having that boss drop one currency every time you kill is and selling that weapon for 173 of that currency. And you should understand that while theoretically indeed you might need > 1130 kills and still not have the items.. that is very unlikely.

So that is really how it should be viewed.. And when you can do that, you can have a decent discussion about about the pro’s and con’s or RNG (when implemented in that way). And then honestly the pro’s are bigger then the cons when compared with a currency.