RNG, what are the chances?
That sounds exactly like RNG: sometimes you get some nice streaks. (Sometimes they aren’t so nice.)
If you are sure the rate has changed, start keeping track. Whenever I do, I get the same results over 100s of trials (and variable amounts for less than 40-50 tries)…and it hasn’t changed since I started playing.
The named exotics you’re getting are linked to the type of champ bag you’re opening, since it’s always the same bags in SW you get the same weapons.
Truth and Stardust are pretty common from champion bags, they have the highest supply among exotic weapons:
Also, drop rates in mystic from rares seems to have dropped, and having played for 3 and a half years, I notice after every patch it gets worse.
Smart developers do use a formula based on the number of players or participants to determine an outcome. For instance if you want only 20% of whatever to upgrade if only 100 people use it your odds are one in five attempts but if 1,000 people use it your odds are one in fifty. A sliding scale is likely what could be used (for instance, at 100 people, 20%, at 1,000 maybe 18%) to keep the rates from slipping too suddenly too fast.
I need to stop building systems and sets.