Guild Wars 2

So far I’ve Salvaged 7 Rare lvl 80 items and have gotten no ectos. I did not have this problem before… Anyone else having this problem?

I just salvage a rare i got. 3 ecto’s.

Not sure if just lucky or nothing changed ;P

Nothing changed.

if you’re not already, use bl kits, masters, or mystic kits. I usually average out to 1 ecto per rare… maybe a little higher but not much

Pretty certain the rate has been nerfed. I just sell my rares on the TP now.

Aeth.5348:

So far I’ve Salvaged 7 Rare lvl 80 items and have gotten no ectos. I did not have this problem before… Anyone else having this problem?

So after you salvaged 7 rares and you got unlucky, you just asume that it got nerfed ?

NO? you just got unlucky.

I almost consistently get at least 1 ecto per salvage. Sounds liek you may have just angered the RNG gods somehow. They are quite the fickle bunch.

you’re right OP. Prior to nov 16th no one had this issue. You are right they changed it.

But that’s okay these people who keep claiming it’s bad luck haven’t been hit with it yet so they’ll just keep on believing there’s nothing wrong.

Yargh…seriously unluckly it seems. I’ve just tried 4 more level 80 rares with Master Salvage kit and nothing again…RNG gods must definitely hate me QQ

Aeth.5348:

Yargh…seriously unluckly it seems. I’ve just tried 4 more level 80 rares with Master Salvage kit and nothing again…RNG gods must definitely hate me QQ

Well since you are getting them I can’t say it’s the new permaDR bug or you would be getting nothing but porous skulls instead of rares.

I’d send them a support ticket because that’s 11 now with 0 globs there’s something wrong

It is working though 11 with nothing sounds terrible

I have also seen a decline of Ectos from Rares 76 and above, obviously something changed, they do still give them but its much rarer now. Why who knows but i salvaged many more than 7 to get my conclusion..

Why Anet is bound by this nerf everything boggles the mind, players will only tolerate it for so long..

As a person who used to buy Rares off the TP specifically to salvage them for ectos to sell back on the TP; I can say with 100% certainty the salvage rate was nerfed .

DR applies to salvaging stuff too.

Kacigarka.5176:

Aeth.5348:

So far I’ve Salvaged 7 Rare lvl 80 items and have gotten no ectos. I did not have this problem before… Anyone else having this problem?

So after you salvaged 7 rares and you got unlucky, you just asume that it got nerfed ?

NO? you just got unlucky.

Considering Arenanet’s stance on nerfing ingame monetary gain with DR and drop rate nerfs to make people rely on buying gems it’s a valid concern.

tigirius.9014:

you’re right OP. Prior to nov 16th no one had this issue. You are right they changed it.

But that’s okay these people who keep claiming it’s bad luck haven’t been hit with it yet so they’ll just keep on believing there’s nothing wrong.

If it changed…how come not everybody is feeling it? We all download the same patches.

Salvaged 4 yellow level 80’s, got 6 ectos a few minutes ago, just RNG again. I pop a omnom tart just to take the superstition equation away and use only black lion salavage kits, i NEVER use a yellow kit or less, black lion or nothing.

6 ectos out of 2 rares, think nothing changed

TWMagimay.9057:

tigirius.9014:

you’re right OP. Prior to nov 16th no one had this issue. You are right they changed it.

But that’s okay these people who keep claiming it’s bad luck haven’t been hit with it yet so they’ll just keep on believing there’s nothing wrong.

If it changed…how come not everybody is feeling it? We all download the same patches.

yes we o – but salvage is server side controlled same as MF

I also noticed a decrease when salvaging rares for ectos. It was quite good before last week and now it seems to be “bugged”. ^^

It’s all RNG.

My record for most salvages gone awry is 11 exotics in a row and nothing. At that point, I was nearly ready to make sacrifices to the RNG gods and post pointless conspiracy theories. Then a miracle happened. The remaining 14 salvages netted me nearly 30 Ecto and I reverted back to a Sane GW2 Atheist.

Damador.4397:

yes we o – but salvage is server side controlled same as MF

And since we have the same server side…

I’ve salvaged over 900 rares in the last 48 hours and still get ~0.91 ectos per rare. Just as stated within a few weeks of release.

RNG is RNG. A sample size of 7 is useless in this case.

Small Sample Size.

apparently – just went through 6 (1 was a 77, others were 80s) with the best salvage kit = 0 ecto

find the probability of getting no rare after 7 consecutive times.

Assume its 40%

This is the chance it will happen: 0.0016384
1.6 in a thousand

You’ve just been unlucky.

Grundle.7302:

I’ve salvaged over 900 rares in the last 48 hours.

No, you haven’t.

Grundle.7302:

I’ve salvaged over 900 rares in the last 48 hours and still get ~0.91 ectos per rare. Just as stated within a few weeks of release.

RNG is RNG. A sample size of 7 is useless in this case.

not trying to disagree with you but what sample size is useful ? and explain what the difference is between a sample size of 7 and the sample size of 900 is exactly?

I’m interested in what your response will be, I for one would like to know.

Like many others, things seem different know with regards to salvaging as well as drop rates, your insight would be most welcome.

thanks in advance for your response Grundle.7302

I’ve salvaged over 900 rares in the last 48 hours and still get ~0.91 ectos per rare. Just as stated within a few weeks of release.

RNG is RNG. A sample size of 7 is useless in this case.

I salvaged close to 500 in much less time than 48 hours so I hardly understand what you 2 others are saying about this. What’s the big deal? :W

not trying to disagree with you but what sample size is useful ? and explain what the difference is between a sample size of 7 and the sample size of 900 is exactly?

huh…. Normally for samples to be taken into account they have to be run lots of times. The larger the amount of sampling you do , the more accurate the probability of something happening. And I agree 7 tries isn’t enough to build any prediction on it.

Hmm a couple of days ago I salvaged 7 rares in a row and I only got 3 ectos I was using Mystic Salvage Kit.

Ath.2531:

find the probability of getting no rare after 7 consecutive times.

Assume its 40%

This is the chance it will happen: 0.0016384
1.6 in a thousand

You’ve just been unlucky.

Not very. The way I understand it, according to info:

If using master or mystic kits, failure chance is 75%. So probability of getting no rare after 7 consecutive tries (or for 8 consecutive tries) = 0.10011291503 or 10%

If using BL, 50% chance of failure per try. Probability of getting no rare for 8 tries = 0.00390625 or 0.39%

Given these figures, it would be more accurate to say that either a.) it was actually our luck in getting rares in salvaging up to this point that was the one broken or b.) the info written in the kits’ tool tips were wrong. If it was, in fact, nerfed, maybe it’s just to make it right. Idk.

I stopped making ectos a few weeks ago because of this reason. I used to get at least 1 ecto per rare, but I went through an entire BL salvage kit to only get 1 ecto. At that point I gave up because it was starting to affect real money.

I don’t think they would put DR on something like black lion salvage kits, which most people use real money to buy. That seems like a cheat to have people buy items with real money, then turn around and make them useless.

Agenteusa.6380:

I’ve salvaged over 900 rares in the last 48 hours and still get ~0.91 ectos per rare. Just as stated within a few weeks of release.

RNG is RNG. A sample size of 7 is useless in this case.

I salvaged close to 500 in much less time than 48 hours so I hardly understand what you 2 others are saying about this. What’s the big deal? :W

not trying to disagree with you but what sample size is useful ? and explain what the difference is between a sample size of 7 and the sample size of 900 is exactly?

huh…. Normally for samples to be taken into account they have to be run lots of times. The larger the amount of sampling you do , the more accurate the probability of something happening. And I agree 7 tries isn’t enough to build any prediction on it.

not trying to disagree with you but what sample size is useful ? and explain what the difference is between a sample size of 7 and the sample size of 900 is exactly?

you said yourself that you did 500 and you said " 7 tries isn’t enough to build any prediction on it." so how much is enough and WHY?

It’s nice to hear what you have to say about sample sizes but why are you saying what you say about the size of the sample and why that is relevant?

“I salvaged close to 500 in much less time than 48 hours so I hardly understand what you 2 others are saying about this. What’s the big deal? :W”

it’s great that you posted this in the thread and all but what is the significance- according to you- between a sample size of 500 or 900 or 7?

Are you able to explain your reasoning or back up anything you say?

If not, then thanks for your opinion and have a nice day

edit: spelling

The 500 I salvaged was to reply to another post of people questioning one could salvaged so many rares in that time. Dunno what the problem with it is.

Now for the sampling I can’t tell you irrefutably why, but the more tries you do the more accuracy you’re gonna have with the real probability of a glob to be salvaged.

Simply because with just a couple of tries you might not be really sure what the odds are.

“Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters” is a sentence I searched and describes it.

Agenteusa.6380:

The 500 I salvaged was to reply to another post of people questioning one could salvaged so many rares in that time. Dunno what the problem with it is.

Now for the sampling I can’t tell you irrefutably why, but the more tries you do the more accuracy you’re gonna have with the real probability of a glob to be salvaged.

Simply because with just a couple of tries you might not be really sure what the odds are.

“Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters” is a sentence I searched and describes it.

no disrespect to you brother, but you’re simply not helping the conversation- you’re hurting the conversation. It’s great that you have an opinion and that you’re willing to express your opinion. “Now for the sampling I can’t tell you irrefutably why…” yes we know you can’t tell us irrefutably why and we can’t tell you irrefutably why either…

Kyosji.8961:

I stopped making ectos a few weeks ago because of this reason. I used to get at least 1 ecto per rare, but I went through an entire BL salvage kit to only get 1 ecto. At that point I gave up because it was starting to affect real money.

I don’t think they would put DR on something like black lion salvage kits, which most people use real money to buy. That seems like a cheat to have people buy items with real money, then turn around and make them useless.

the whole point is no one knows except for the people at Anet- who aren’t telling us because they hope more people will spend real money and if they believe it is just bad RNG luck or that their “sample size” is not large enough, then they will spend more real money to buy more from ANET.

“I don’t think they would put DR on something like black lion salvage kits, which most people use real money to buy. That seems like a cheat to have people buy items with real money, then turn around and make them useless”

When you go to a store to buy something, or buy something from a vending machine, and you get an empty container, would you simply say “oh that’s bad RNG”?

Is this what you want from games? Shouldn’t you be saying something other than “math is dictating this particular outcome” ? Tell me that you would not be seriously kitten off if you bought something- with real money- from anywhere other than Guild Wars 2 and got an empty container…

I asked for you to provide the math responsible and you were not able to- I asked you to provide some type of evidence or reasoning. Your response was that larger sample sizes were needed… thanks for that.

Things have changed.

You offer no evidence or even any reasoning for your case. If things haven’t changed than offer some evidence or reasoning that they haven’t changed.

The only thing I know for sure is that people are saying they are not getting what they used to get from salvaging, and the way to get a “larger” sample size is to pay real money to the cash shop.

Mahaedros.7085:

you said yourself that you did 500 and you said " 7 tries isn’t enough to build any prediction on it." so how much is enough and WHY?

It’s nice to hear what you have to say about sample sizes but why are you saying what you say about the size of the sample and why that is relevant?

“I salvaged close to 500 in much less time than 48 hours so I hardly understand what you 2 others are saying about this. What’s the big deal? :W”

it’s great that you posted this in the thread and all but what is the significance- according to you- between a sample size of 500 or 900 or 7?

Are you able to explain your reasoning or back up anything you say?

If not, then thanks for your opinion and have a nice day

edit: spelling

It’s a general rule in statistics. There is a deviation when you are counting probabilities. The explanation is so long winded, but just take it that when you are trying to determine the probability of an event through statistics, the bigger your sample size, the more accurate is your probability.

And the difference between 500 and 7 is very big.

You can think about it like this:

Just now, you are trying to determine what really is the chance of getting an ecto from a rare or exotic. BY RIGHT it should be 25% or 50% depending on which kit you use. But if you make a conclusion based on your 7 sample size (in which you didn’t get any), that means that the chance is completely 0%. Not even 1%! So it’s not accurate at all.

If you do 500 tries, BY RIGHT you should get 125 or 250 ectos, but this will not be the case. For Master Kit, it will probably be in a range of 90-300, idk, something like that – instead of 125. So the difference is called deviation.

So the bigger the sample size, the smaller this range and deviation is and the closer to the exact value that the probability will determine.

What is the ideal sample size? A few hundred thousands. A million. Infinity.

no disrespect to you brother, but you’re simply not helping the conversation- you’re hurting the conversation. It’s great that you have an opinion and that you’re willing to express your opinion. “Now for the sampling I can’t tell you irrefutably why…” yes we know you can’t tell us irrefutably why and we can’t tell you irrefutably why either…

No disrespect taken.

But as I and projectcedric have explained the more tries you make the more accurate your results will be.

ANet can´t reply to you on that as well as statistics stand out for themselves. They have a base chance for ectos to drop and that’s it, they can´t tell you for certain how many will drop in an X number of attempts.

Although it’s almost impossible it could happen that you made 5 tries and got ectos everytime and I salvaged 500 and got 0 ectos.

RNG is about that. It’s random even if based on a fixed percentage.

Agenteusa.6380:

no disrespect to you brother, but you’re simply not helping the conversation- you’re hurting the conversation. It’s great that you have an opinion and that you’re willing to express your opinion. “Now for the sampling I can’t tell you irrefutably why…” yes we know you can’t tell us irrefutably why and we can’t tell you irrefutably why either…

No disrespect taken.

But as I and projectcedric have explained the more tries you make the more accurate your results will be.

ANet can´t reply to you on that as well as statistics stand out for themselves. They have a base chance for ectos to drop and that’s it, they can´t tell you for certain how many will drop in an X number of attempts.

Although it’s almost impossible it could happen that you made 5 tries and got ectos everytime and I salvaged 500 and got 0 ectos.

RNG is about that. It’s random even if based on a fixed percentage.

Your statement would be the true if ANet was flipping coins or Rolling Dice but the reality is that there is nothing Random about a Computer Random Number Generator. Computers do not spit out random numbers. The output only appears random. Computers have to operate within a specific set of guidelines.

I am glad we are keeping this respectful, because I am the one who has failed to explain what I am trying to get across…

Of course larger sample sizes are better in some cases. Now go read about polls taken that politicians pay attention to- they have a specific (in my opinion, remarkably low) sample size of people they ask questions. When they ask more and more people the results will be the same- the larger sample size in this case is statistically insignificant. The difference is “randomness” here (where poll taking has less “randomness”).

So, in Guild wars 2 we have random chance- i.e., RNG. you tried to salvage 500, another guy tried 7 and another guy tried 900… approximately 2 million + people bought the game…

when you play WoW or a WoW clone, you pay a set amount of real life money per month (subscription) … low RNG might be a way to make you subscribe again next month to keep playing, but once you pay your sub, you keep playing but don’t keep paying…

that’s the whole point. You’re considered a sucker and if your 99 friends aren’t they can bank on the next guy to be a sucker

I bought an MMORPG and I want to adventure, not gamble

It would be less insulting if they did not change the rates and chances in order to manipulate the players to spend real cash to get things in the game.

As I mentioned before, would you accept this RNG manipulation from any other company you do business with? Would you buy a product from a store and laugh it off as “just RNG” when you got home and discovered the box you purchased was empty?

Math and statistics and probability are all nice and they are able to be understood by people. All can be manipulated to one’s advantage- especially if one’s opponent accepts that the rules and numbers can be changed without warning———> is this really necessary for your adventures in Tyria? is this what you signed up for when you bought the game?

If you say yes, then this B.S. will continue in MMORPGs. If you don’t say “well that’s RNG for ya…har har” and don’t put up with this crap then things might change in our little genre of MMORPG’s.

A sucker is born every minute… a fool and his money are soon parted… the automobile salesman, automobile repairmen and automobile insurance salesmen know this well. Don’t put up with this B.S. in your adventures in MMORPG’s.

It’s a scam

I salvage massive numbers of items. I blow through stacks of mystic salvage kits at an alarming rate. I get about 1 ecto per item on average with them. There are streaks where i get none for a while, but that’s later made up by getting 2’s and 3’s.

Theplayboy.6417:

Your statement would be the true if ANet was flipping coins or Rolling Dice but the reality is that there is nothing Random about a Computer Random Number Generator. Computers do not spit out random numbers. The output only appears random. Computers have to operate within a specific set of guidelines.

You can get a computer to spit out random numbers… Random.org does it by using atmospheric noise to produce the numbers instead of just a formula.

I’m sure this game doesn’t do that though… :P

The RNG in this game isn’t at all bad at being random from what I can tell. What I think the problem is that most people expect far fewer streaks than what will happen in a random situation.

People expect 4 upgrades when they do 20 flushes of the mystic toilet, every set of 20 rares salvaged to produce a total of 20 ectos, etc… because that’s the average. But that’s just not how it works. The sample sizes are just too small. Within a small sample you can have all sorts of results which… don’t really mean anything.

Manipulation of the chances… is a totally different beast…

I agree with people that don’t like the randomness in their game… I would prefer a set 1 ecto per rare and for the mystic toilet to just require a set # of the same quality item to produce an upgrade. But oh well : /

Aberrant.6749:

I salvage massive numbers of items. I blow through stacks of mystic salvage kits at an alarming rate. I get about 1 ecto per item on average with them. There are streaks where i get none for a while, but that’s later made up by getting 2’s and 3’s.

Theplayboy.6417:

Your statement would be the true if ANet was flipping coins or Rolling Dice but the reality is that there is nothing Random about a Computer Random Number Generator. Computers do not spit out random numbers. The output only appears random. Computers have to operate within a specific set of guidelines.

You can get a computer to spit out random numbers… Random.org does it by using atmospheric noise to produce the numbers instead of just a formula.

I’m sure this game doesn’t do that though… :P

The RNG in this game isn’t at all bad at being random from what I can tell. What I think the problem is that most people expect far fewer streaks than what will happen in a random situation.

People expect 4 upgrades when they do 20 flushes of the mystic toilet, every set of 20 rares salvaged to produce a total of 20 ectos, etc… because that’s the average. But that’s just not how it works. The sample sizes are just too small. Within a small sample you can have all sorts of results which… don’t really mean anything.

Manipulation of the chances… is a totally different beast…

I agree with people that don’t like the randomness in their game… I would prefer a set 1 ecto per rare and for the mystic toilet to just require a set # of the same quality item to produce an upgrade. But oh well : /

Thank you. After reading this post I did another couple hundred rares, and got 10 in a row that didn’t give me any ectos. But if you look at my spreadsheet at the end of the mystic salvage kit I received 0.89 ectos per rare which is well within the standard deviation of the originally reported .90 drop rate from around release.

If you increase your sample size you will increase your chances of breaking away from RNG and pushing yourself closer to the intended drop rate. The guy with the explanation of standard deviation nailed it.

And guy with the “computers can’t generate random numbers”: your argument is irrelevant. Of course nothing can systematically generate something completely random and this isn’t a secret, but the flaws in any computer’s RNG aren’t what is giving you kitten loot. ANET’s DR is what is giving you kitten loot.

Aberrant.6749:

I salvage massive numbers of items. I blow through stacks of mystic salvage kits at an alarming rate. I get about 1 ecto per item on average with them. There are streaks where i get none for a while, but that’s later made up by getting 2’s and 3’s.

cool and all but do you pay real money to get the mystic salvage kits? I get them from playing in-game but i don’t do whatever it takes to get a lot of them :p

Aberrant.6749:

You can get a computer to spit out random numbers…

Manipulation of the chances… is a totally different beast…

I agree with people that don’t like the randomness in their game… I would prefer a set 1 ecto per rare and for the mystic toilet to just require a set # of the same quality item to produce an upgrade. But oh well : /

ya man i totally agree with you

my suspicion is that they have changed the % of chance for drops and now it would seem that i suspect they changed it for salvaging too. Of course I don’t know and without being a tin-foil hat nut job i can’t say for certain…but with diminishing returns and all that farming nerfs etc…

lets just say Anet is like a girlfriend that is really sweet and alluring …but I think she’s cheating on me (bad analogy I know but it’s a company- and not my babe… so I’m a bit more unforgiving of a game that I love cheating on me, than a human being O.0 )

Nayru.4537:

Grundle.7302:

Aberrant.6749:

I salvage massive numbers of items. I blow through stacks of mystic salvage kits at an alarming rate. I get about 1 ecto per item on average with them. There are streaks where i get none for a while, but that’s later made up by getting 2’s and 3’s.

Theplayboy.6417:

Your statement would be the true if ANet was flipping coins or Rolling Dice but the reality is that there is nothing Random about a Computer Random Number Generator. Computers do not spit out random numbers. The output only appears random. Computers have to operate within a specific set of guidelines.

You can get a computer to spit out random numbers… Random.org does it by using atmospheric noise to produce the numbers instead of just a formula.

I’m sure this game doesn’t do that though… :P

The RNG in this game isn’t at all bad at being random from what I can tell. What I think the problem is that most people expect far fewer streaks than what will happen in a random situation.

People expect 4 upgrades when they do 20 flushes of the mystic toilet, every set of 20 rares salvaged to produce a total of 20 ectos, etc… because that’s the average. But that’s just not how it works. The sample sizes are just too small. Within a small sample you can have all sorts of results which… don’t really mean anything.

Manipulation of the chances… is a totally different beast…

I agree with people that don’t like the randomness in their game… I would prefer a set 1 ecto per rare and for the mystic toilet to just require a set # of the same quality item to produce an upgrade. But oh well : /

Thank you. After reading this post I did another couple hundred rares, and got 10 in a row that didn’t give me any ectos. But if you look at my spreadsheet at the end of the mystic salvage kit I received 0.89 ectos per rare which is well within the standard deviation of the originally reported .90 drop rate from around release.

If you increase your sample size you will increase your chances of breaking away from RNG and pushing yourself closer to the intended drop rate. The guy with the explanation of standard deviation nailed it.

And guy with the “computers can’t generate random numbers”: your argument is irrelevant. Of course nothing can systematically generate something completely random and this isn’t a secret, but the flaws in any computer’s RNG aren’t what is giving you kitten loot. ANET’s DR is what is giving you kitten loot.

Do you realise in this thread you have said you have salvaged over 1000 rares just to check the ecto rate?

Guess what, I just salvaged 2000 rares and got no ecto. Proof that it has been nerfed.

Where did I say that I salvaged the rares JUST TO CHECK THE ECTO RATE? I believe I stated I salvaged the rares, which anyone should have been able to pick up was probably not for an experiment. I found a market where I can make about 25% ROI on salvaging some rares. Because of this, I salvage a lot of rares. The way this market works is on calculated odds of dropped materials from each item and because of this I keep records on each run of salvages I do. If I didn’t I could lose a couple hundred gold before I noticed the downswing.

Didn’t think that needed to be explained but lowest common denominator and all, I guess.

Mahaedros.7085:

cool and all but do you pay real money to get the mystic salvage kits? I get them from playing in-game but i don’t do whatever it takes to get a lot of them :p

I haven’t spent anything on this game other than the game itself.

I bought a lot of gems early on when they weren’t expensive, then during the thanksgiving sale I bought tons of mystic forge stones at a discounted price. I still have about 3k gems left… but after I blow through these last 20 mystic stones… I’ll have to go do the math to see if it’s even worth it to do what I’ve been doing for ecto’s/gold anymore (which I doubt).

Btw… a good thing to do… when you do happen to get those BL kits for free from your daily… don’t use them on rares! Instead search the TP for exotic items where the sigil/rune value is greater than that of the item you’re buying. That way you’ll get a profit on the upgrade no matter what happens… and the extra ecto’s are just very nice icing (do not try this with non-BL kits!!!!)

holy crap i’ve never get so many rares—— sorry to keep going off topic

for a while i was saving every rare I got from dragon killing in my bank but I never got near to what you guys have been blowing through…

oh well, maybe I am wrong but I’d still like some reassurance from Anet as to what some indications of our chances are for salvaging and drop rates… however, other players who are saying that things are within the standard deviation make me feel better about things because I know that not only are they being completely honest, they are also, without any doubt, completely accurate in everything they say without providing the math behind their claims…

i’m out good luck and have fun all

@ Aberrant —--oh man that is good advice thank you
ya i was not able to play as much for a few months as I did for the gabillion hours I played in pre-launch and the first month… I’m struggling at times to get more mystic stones for the kits… just got my 3rd 80 so my revenue should go up and expenses of leveling crafting etc will go down O_O

@ grundle —- i did not mean to direct any of my comment towards you, (i only read your post after I posted mine so please do not think I was referring to your posts)

Aberrant.6749:

Mahaedros.7085:

cool and all but do you pay real money to get the mystic salvage kits? I get them from playing in-game but i don’t do whatever it takes to get a lot of them :p

I haven’t spent anything on this game other than the game itself.

I bought a lot of gems early on when they weren’t expensive, then during the thanksgiving sale I bought tons of mystic forge stones at a discounted price. I still have about 3k gems left… but after I blow through these last 20 mystic stones… I’ll have to go do the math to see if it’s even worth it to do what I’ve been doing for ecto’s/gold anymore (which I doubt).

I just did the math for myself, it comes out to 1.12s per charge of a mystic kit and ~62c for a charge of a master’s. It’s up to you if the rate increase is THAT much better, but for me it’s master’s kits until the price on gems drops back down.

To the other guy: no one salvaging 1000 rares is looting them all. They are all getting bought up off the TP

Mahaedros.7085:

holy crap i’ve never get so many rares—— sorry to keep going off topic

for a while i was saving every rare I got from dragon killing in my bank but I never got near to what you guys have been blowing through…

oh well, maybe I am wrong but I’d still like some reassurance from Anet as to what some indications of our chances are for salvaging and drop rates… however, other players who are saying that things are within the standard deviation make me feel better about things because I know that not only are they being completely honest, they are also, without any doubt, completely accurate in everything they say without providing the math behind their claims…

i’m out good luck and have fun all

It’s a good idea not to salvage them one at a time… helps to stop you from getting upset when you don’t get anything from them.

I don’t just depend on dragons or farming for my rares… although I know people that do.

We all have 3 toons that just sit at the dragons to avoid the WP costs (which add up). They kill every dragon they can when they pop up (it’s kitten nice to have that announcement in guild hahahaha) The ones that only do dragons generally save them up for 1-2 weeks then salvage them all for a payday and get the same general results.

Grundle.7302:

Aberrant.6749:

Mahaedros.7085:

cool and all but do you pay real money to get the mystic salvage kits? I get them from playing in-game but i don’t do whatever it takes to get a lot of them :p

I haven’t spent anything on this game other than the game itself.

I bought a lot of gems early on when they weren’t expensive, then during the thanksgiving sale I bought tons of mystic forge stones at a discounted price. I still have about 3k gems left… but after I blow through these last 20 mystic stones… I’ll have to go do the math to see if it’s even worth it to do what I’ve been doing for ecto’s/gold anymore (which I doubt).

I just did the math for myself, it comes out to 1.12s per charge of a mystic kit and ~62c for a charge of a master’s. It’s up to you if the rate increase is THAT much better, but for me it’s master’s kits until the price on gems drops back down.

To the other guy: no one salvaging 1000 rares is looting them all. They are all getting bought up off the TP

Thanks for the info ^^ I’ll probably go back to flipping/market manipulation for cash after I run through these T.T

TWMagimay.9057:

tigirius.9014:

you’re right OP. Prior to nov 16th no one had this issue. You are right they changed it.

But that’s okay these people who keep claiming it’s bad luck haven’t been hit with it yet so they’ll just keep on believing there’s nothing wrong.

If it changed…how come not everybody is feeling it? We all download the same patches.

We dunno and that’s why we think it’s a bug. half the people running a dungeon with regular gear on will get 9 rares while the other half gets absolutely nothing but greys when the people who get greys get trash most of the time from open world, it can’t be luck and it can’t be random when it happens all the time to people’s accounts. Some people like the OP never see anything. I know I have one of those accounts, none of my characters EVER get anything good from drops unless they reset the servers for a patch and then bam i get two items before it returns to it’s normal trash pickup.

I suspect it’s the same for salvages.

Grundle.7302:

Nayru.4537:

Grundle.7302:

Aberrant.6749:

I salvage massive numbers of items. I blow through stacks of mystic salvage kits at an alarming rate. I get about 1 ecto per item on average with them. There are streaks where i get none for a while, but that’s later made up by getting 2’s and 3’s.

Theplayboy.6417:

Your statement would be the true if ANet was flipping coins or Rolling Dice but the reality is that there is nothing Random about a Computer Random Number Generator. Computers do not spit out random numbers. The output only appears random. Computers have to operate within a specific set of guidelines.

You can get a computer to spit out random numbers… Random.org does it by using atmospheric noise to produce the numbers instead of just a formula.

I’m sure this game doesn’t do that though… :P

The RNG in this game isn’t at all bad at being random from what I can tell. What I think the problem is that most people expect far fewer streaks than what will happen in a random situation.

People expect 4 upgrades when they do 20 flushes of the mystic toilet, every set of 20 rares salvaged to produce a total of 20 ectos, etc… because that’s the average. But that’s just not how it works. The sample sizes are just too small. Within a small sample you can have all sorts of results which… don’t really mean anything.

Manipulation of the chances… is a totally different beast…

I agree with people that don’t like the randomness in their game… I would prefer a set 1 ecto per rare and for the mystic toilet to just require a set # of the same quality item to produce an upgrade. But oh well : /

Thank you. After reading this post I did another couple hundred rares, and got 10 in a row that didn’t give me any ectos. But if you look at my spreadsheet at the end of the mystic salvage kit I received 0.89 ectos per rare which is well within the standard deviation of the originally reported .90 drop rate from around release.

If you increase your sample size you will increase your chances of breaking away from RNG and pushing yourself closer to the intended drop rate. The guy with the explanation of standard deviation nailed it.

And guy with the “computers can’t generate random numbers”: your argument is irrelevant. Of course nothing can systematically generate something completely random and this isn’t a secret, but the flaws in any computer’s RNG aren’t what is giving you kitten loot. ANET’s DR is what is giving you kitten loot.

Do you realise in this thread you have said you have salvaged over 1000 rares just to check the ecto rate?

Guess what, I just salvaged 2000 rares and got no ecto. Proof that it has been nerfed.

Where did I say that I salvaged the rares JUST TO CHECK THE ECTO RATE? I believe I stated I salvaged the rares, which anyone should have been able to pick up was probably not for an experiment. I found a market where I can make about 25% ROI on salvaging some rares. Because of this, I salvage a lot of rares. The way this market works is on calculated odds of dropped materials from each item and because of this I keep records on each run of salvages I do. If I didn’t I could lose a couple hundred gold before I noticed the downswing.

Didn’t think that needed to be explained but lowest common denominator and all, I guess.

Tsk. You just got trolled, man. But thanks for the info

In any case, I don’t know whats so improbable about salvaging a thousand rares. It’s not like there are any other use for them.