Guild Wars 2

Just a suggestion from someone who wasted 200g hoping to get some good shadow dyes and mostly got masterwork dyes from it, It would be nice if something called shadow dye kit actually gave shadow dyes.

Each dye kit costs 18g and the price of shadow dyes varies from 7g-198g. Theres enough rng and price variation in shadow dyes that its already a gamble from making less than half back to way more. Now i’ve never bought a dye pack before so i just went off the title in the gem store thinking id get some ok dyes back and got nothing. Im not asking for a refund or anything but it’d be nice if rng items werent so bad. Getting a ton of dyes worth at max 1s is really disappointing. I cant imagine how people who spent real money on it feel.

They are gamblers….

RNG junkiez

And I do not mind.

It’s not that bad.
Bought a 5-pack, got 3 shadow dyes from it, one of them being shadow abyss.

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

Totally a fraud! Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

seriously, this is why I don’t buy limited edition dyes on the gem store. for the price at least give us a ganantee of getting an exclusive dye, by all means make some rarer than others for the rng lovers, but don’t make them drop normal dyes 2/3 of the time.
As is if there’s an exclusive dye I really like I just save up my gold and buy it on the trade post.

Styxx.1564:

It’s not that bad.
Bought a 5-pack, got 3 shadow dyes from it, one of them being shadow abyss.

Its not so bad for some people, i know one person who bought only a 5 pack and got two shadow abyss

Im not asking that they give me a shadow abyss im just asking that they make shadow dye set a shadow dye set not shadow dyes and these other random crap dyes. Im one of those people who enjoys rng to an extent, but it just doesnt seem reasonable in anyway that they include horrible dyes in the gamble.

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

Totally a fraud! Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

Then if you do happen to get that 1%, you then have a second set of rng determining which of the new dyes you get.

skullmount.1758:

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

Totally a fraud! Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

Then if you do happen to get that 1%, you then have a second set of rng determining which of the new dyes you get.

I know I’m being exaggerated, but can’t you see what’s the real issue here?
These RNG items are falsely presented… They should have out-right tell you those 10 new dyes has lower chance of acquisition among those 25 dyes.

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.

Nowhere and I mean NOWHERE does it say all dyes are equally weighted. And if you’d looked at the results from ANY previous dye kit you’d know they aren’t and never have been.

Totally a fraud!

Totally a delusion conjured up by your own mind.

Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

If you managed to learn that lesson here, it may actually serve you well in the rest of the world where odds tables aren’t published either.

I spent 35 dollars on gems yesterday. Bought 25 black lion keys and a 5 pack of the shadow dyes.
The keys netted me 8 BL ticket scraps, some mini’s worth 6 gold altogether and a bunch of boosts (useless). If i had just converted to gold i would have 250 gold and could have bought 2.5 shadow weapons.
The shadow dye kit got me a shadow magenta and a bunch of crappy blue dyes. I could have bought shadow magenta for 10 gold, and again just traded my gems for 90ish gold.

I’m not a gambler. I rarely spend cash on the game and I’ve never bought dye kits or BL keys before, and i was extremely underwhelmed. I figured the chances were much higher of receiving actual usable loot. Instead it looks like trading gems for gold is generally the only way to go for a risk free purchase.

Nike.2631:

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.

No where and I mean NOWHERE does it say all dyes are equally weighted. And if you’d looked at the results from ANY previous dye kit you’d know they aren’t and never have been.

Totally a fraud!

Totally a delusion conjured up by your own mind.

Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

If you managed to learn that lesson here, it may actually serve you well in the rest of the world where odds tables aren’t published either.

Whatever you say man.
I learned my lesson.
You can go feed Anet your money to this fraud RNG, I do not care.

I’m hear to warn those innocent and clueless people about how Anet scam their money. I do not care if you believe my theory or not, but other more rational people may listen.

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

Totally a fraud! Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

You gambled and ‘lost’. If you are not willing to lose, then don’t play the RNG. If you were looking for a specific shadow dye (I suspect Shad. Abyss), then you may have been better off just buying it off the TP.

RNG Sucks, and the odds are not in the player’s favour.

Every time these dye packs come out, these types of posts shortly follow. I wish Anet would just put these special dyes in pre-made kits for 1800 gems (or whatever) and save the rest of us from these frustration threads/posts.

Not a fraud, but rather a carrot to be dangled for your inner gambler to bite, and bite, and bite again.

NoxInfernus.2361:

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

Totally a fraud! Anet, thank you for tricking your customer, that I’ll never fall to your RNG fraud again. I will never spend a penny on those RNG related things you have created.

You gambled and ‘lost’. If you are not willing to lose, then don’t play the RNG. If you were looking for a specific shadow dye (I suspect Shad. Abyss), then you may have been better off just buying it off the TP.

RNG Sucks, and the odds are not in the player’s favour.

Every time these dye packs come out, these types of posts shortly follow. I wish Anet would just put these special dyes in pre-made kits for 1800 gems (or whatever) and save the rest of us from these frustration threads/posts.

Not a fraud, but rather a carrot to be dangled for your inner gambler to bite, and bite, and bite again.

I do not look for the most expensive dye, just any new dye and I’d be happy, despite losing money in the process. It is the feeling of getting SOMETHING from the kit that I decide to buy it. But truth is I can’t even get one single new dye from 5 bags, not even the cheapest one, that feeling of you pay for something yet getting nothing is really horrible. It doesn’t has to break-even the cost, but at least make player feel like they’re rewarded with something…

Like I said, I post here to warn people. You can keep feeding your money to this scam. It is actually beneficial to the company for your sincere “donation”

Aomine.5012:

You can go feed Anet your money to this fraud RNG, I do not care.

You think I’m crazy? I don’t buy those things. I pick the colors I want up off the TP early before the prices really settle in . When I buy dye packs its strictly on a lark and frankly I go in expecting to get trash.

I got shadow blue, shadow magenta, and shadow green.

Pretty happy with those; shadow abyss is way too dark for my coat, but shadow blue gives a deep, saturated look to the accent parts of my outfit, and is almost indistinguishable in anything but the brightest light.

bought 10 and got a shadow abyss and shadow indigo. My new revenant might be a shadow dye character.

bought two 5pack got four shadows including abyss

Just because.. why not. I just bought a second 5-pack.

Got my second Shadow Abyss. I’m rich!

In Map chat yesterday people were comparing their Shadow dye drop rates. One guy opened 80 dyes and got 21 Shadows, including more than one Shadow Abyss. Someone else opened 40 and got 9 or 10 of the dyes.

I opened 25 total. The first 4 sets of 5 each gave me at least one Shadow (my first 5 gave me 3 Shadows including an Abyss, so I kept on going). The last set was on a different alt later in the day, and just had regular dyes in it. I ended up with 8 Shadows, Magenta my only duplicate. Before I opened the last set I had the best drop rate of anyone who’d commented, 8/20, but at the end I was 8/25 and thus more in line with what others reported.

A guildie of mine opened some, I’m not sure how many. Her very first one was Abyss, then she got another one and sold it. I had been hoping for a second one as well. Alas I am actually down quite a bit of gold thanks to buying 100 gems with gold (for that last set of five, boo) and putting in buy orders for two of my three missing dyes … but the reason I keep a gold reserve around is so I can buy special items I want when they appear. If I won’t spend it I might as well not have it, hey?

i bought a dye 5 pack yesterday and got a shadow abyss and then bought one more single just to try my luck (no dice i got like a common green).

but the dye pack is problematic as i could have missed…i don’t understand why anet doesnt offer the 5 pack at a certain price and then specific dyes at a higher gem price (4-500 for the pack and 800-1000 for a specific dye out of the set).

as it is i’m happy but if i had missed i probably would have gone to tp (200gp + ^^;….) for shadow abyss.

Nyx.7342:

Each dye kit costs 18g and the price of shadow dyes varies from 7g-198g.

if you were guaranteed to get a shadow dye, that sentence would look something more like: “Each dye kit costs 18g and the price of shadow dyes varies from 2g-15g, with one at 50g”

So.. you saw RNG, decided to buy RNG and successfully got RNG. If you really wanted a specific dye – why didn’t you buy the color you want off the TP instead of RNGing?

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

The problem is that you are looking at all 5 items as a whole. But it doesn’t matter at all that you opened 5 or that you opened them consecutively. The game does not remember what you got from opening the first item or any of them. So each time you open the item you have a blank slate chance to get any one of the 25 dyes. Random means you could fail to get any Shadow Dye, it even means that you can get the same dye 5 times in a row.

well 225 gp on tp is pretty pricey. so the 50 gp investment for the rng paid off but admittedly i got lucky and some of the thinking was if i buy 5 pack and get another shadow i don’t want i can sell it and recoup at least some of my investment.

but it was a one off thing-if i didn’t get shadow abyss on the 5 pack i wasn’t going for another dye pack i was going to grind for the 225 gp and buy on tp. puts the player in a tough spot really but if they offered choice of a select shadow dye for more gems it would be fairer (again say 800-1000 gems for your choice of shadow dyes).

with the rng on dye packs anet created the 200 gp dye and it’s only been out like what 2 days or so…

Djinn.9245:

Aomine.5012:

I bought 5 of them, and ended up 4 blues and 1 green.
Anet said there’re 10 new dyes out of 25 choices lol…
But instead of having 10/25 chance of getting the new dye, I bet the actual percentage to get those new dye is like 1%.
If the chance is really 10/25, the chance of not getting any shadow dyes in 5 consecutive rounds is 7.7% (0.6 to the power of 5).

The problem is that you are looking at all 5 items as a whole. But it doesn’t matter at all that you opened 5 or that you opened them consecutively. The game does not remember what you got from opening the first item or any of them. So each time you open the item you have a blank slate chance to get any one of the 25 dyes. Random means you could fail to get any Shadow Dye, it even means that you can get the same dye 5 times in a row.

Someone already said the statistic is around 1/5 chance for getting any of the 10 new dyes.

Also people who kept on looking at the probability separately does not know how probability works. Suppose you flip a coin for 100 times. The probability of not getting a head for 100 times flip is much lower because you flip so many times, it is hard to not get at least a few heads. If I open 5 bags and IF the chance is really 10/25 like the product was advertised, The probability of trying 5 times and NOT get new dye is 7.7% because I tried many times, so it is harder for me to not at least get one new dye.

Remember, I’m NOT looking at the instantaneous probability, but looking at 5 opportunities at once. People who do not know how probability works often mistake the chance and say the chance always remain the same, but that is only when you look at the “instantaneous probability”. I didn’t just try one time, nor do I only count for the last time I try.

the thing is the probability is actually much lower because the only dye you want is shadow abyss (the other shadow dyes are on tp for 14-25 gp or so and it would make more sense just to buy them rather than use gems).

RNG is never going to pay off for you. Just grind grind grind and then buy off the TP.

This isn’t one of those “other” MMO’s where you have to earn your rewards. Here it is just mindless grinding until you can buy the item.

I do not understand the purpose of releasing these hues. This game is colorful. Its not a dark themed game. There is also no underworld for us to face the “shadow”. Is this a hint from ANET that “Underworld” is coming in GW2????

I do not like the dyes that kill/hide textures. Shadow dyes are just that. Hence, I did not bother buying anything other than shadow orange and green from TP, thanks to somewhat less fortunate people selling them, while I was feeling charitable last night.

After getting lucky with the last kits (I got 4 golden lion and a few of the others out of 20 kits), I bought 10 shadow kits and only got two of the blue. Kept one, gave the other to a friend and decided not to buy more besides, the shadow blue looks a lot like midnight ice, on some fabrics I can’t see a difference at all. I don’t see the draw to these dyes.

Aomine.5012:

-snip-

Two things, 5 trials is hardly enough for you to be claiming “fraud” or anything similar, and if there really is a 1/25 chance for every dye, your 7.8% chance of getting zero Shadow dyes isn’t really enough to shout “scam” either, you just got unlucky, deal with it.

Jack.5012:

Aomine.5012:

-snip-

Two things, 5 trials is hardly enough for you to be claiming “fraud” or anything similar, and if there really is a 1/25 chance for every dye, your 7.8% chance of getting zero Shadow dyes isn’t really enough to shout “scam” either, you just got unlucky, deal with it.

I really don’t care what you think, You can believe it and avoid the scam, or you can feed the money to Anet. Your choice, I’m not stopping you.

It’s ok. Nobody cares about your scam conspiracy either Aomine.

I bought three 5-packs, I got 7 shadow dyes, two of them being Abyss.
I’d love to have more scams like that! I’m scammed rich!

Mystic.5934:

Nyx.7342:

Each dye kit costs 18g and the price of shadow dyes varies from 7g-198g.

if you were guaranteed to get a shadow dye, that sentence would look something more like: “Each dye kit costs 18g and the price of shadow dyes varies from 2g-15g, with one at 50g”

Is that bad? Shouldnt 200g for a dye be the price after its inaccesible and only a limited supply remains. Obviously something is wrong if its one of the most expensive dyes on the TP right when it comes out.

Again im not complaining about the RNG so much as im asking them to change the way these dye packs are handled. If they have to include other worse dyes in order to make artificial prices why not include ones that are higher tier, like the 1-10g ones on the TP? My vote of course goes to just having shadow dyes only in the packs with maybe the better colors having a lower drop rate.

Styxx.1564:

It’s ok. Nobody cares about your scam conspiracy either Aomine.

I bought three 5-packs, I got 7 shadow dyes, two of them being Abyss.
I’d love to have more scams like that! I’m scammed rich!

Why stop at 3 if you know you’re going to earn money from this?
Start buying 25 pack x 5 already! I know you’ll make big money from this!
Believe in Anet! Believe in RNG!

Because I treat GW2 as a game.
I don’t freak out unnecessarily about trivial things.
And I don’t need to spend my money in a game. I’m happy with 3, that’s enough.

I believe in a good game, you can continue ranting.

Styxx.1564:

Because I treat GW2 as a game.
I don’t freak out unnecessarily about trivial things.
And I don’t need to spend my money in a game. I’m happy with 3, that’s enough.

I believe in a good game, you can continue ranting.

See, you’re just the “minority” who got lucky this time.
You do not trust this RNG either. That’s why you said it’s a good deal while you can’t afford or dare to buy more kits.

Hypocritical at a maximum

So basically, probability is a scam for you?
I can afford, and I can buy if I want to. I don’t NEED to.
I’d rather spend my money on more important stuff for me, ya know? Like.. Stuff that goes outside the edge of my screen? Going out, my family, my hobbies, etc..

No hypocrisy here.

I wonder how high the price of shadow abyss dye will rise in the tp?

Just some math for the gold-gm vs gold-dye conversion:

Assuming you have a fair chance for all 25 dyes and you buy 25 kits for 2.5k gems.
The gems would cost more than 400 gold, with the conversion rate from the previous days roughly 340 gold.

In addition you pay more in the tp for the non-gambling but get other dyes on the other hand if you gamble.

All in all I would expect the dye to go up to around 300+ gold very fast in the tp.
Did I miss something or is now a good time to buy the color while it is cheap for some gold instead of gambling lots of gems?

Oniatus.5869:

I wonder how high the price of shadow abyss dye will rise in the tp?

Just some math for the gold-gm vs gold-dye conversion:

Assuming you have a fair chance for all 25 dyes and you buy 25 kits for 2.5k gems.
The gems would cost more than 400 gold, with the conversion rate from the previous days roughly 340 gold.

In addition you pay more in the tp for the non-gambling but get other dyes on the other hand if you gamble.

All in all I would expect the dye to go up to around 300+ gold very fast in the tp.
Did I miss something or is now a good time to buy the color while it is cheap for some gold instead of gambling lots of gems?

Actually im not sure if this makes total sense. Sure mathematically it should go up a lot, but theres a price cap for how much people are willing to pay for a dye. Its totaly possible this dyes price will stay at the same place its at, or maybe even drop as hype goes down. But then again i could be wrong

Oniatus.5869:

I wonder how high the price of shadow abyss dye will rise in the tp?

Just some math for the gold-gm vs gold-dye conversion:

Assuming you have a fair chance for all 25 dyes and you buy 25 kits for 2.5k gems.
The gems would cost more than 400 gold, with the conversion rate from the previous days roughly 340 gold.

In addition you pay more in the tp for the non-gambling but get other dyes on the other hand if you gamble.

All in all I would expect the dye to go up to around 300+ gold very fast in the tp.
Did I miss something or is now a good time to buy the color while it is cheap for some gold instead of gambling lots of gems?

Dyes are hard to predict since there is supply from multiple sources.

Technically you have an equal chance to get abyss dye yet it is not 300g. It is all about perceived value. There are more Shadow Abyss dyes on the TP then the others yet it is 10x more expensive.