Guild Wars 2

So, there is a run on thick leather that began on Oct 10th.

https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19729-thick-leather-section

Use month view.

Price goes from 11c to 45c in the span of a few days moving over 6M out of the market supply.

Price starts to slowly settle prior to Halloween event then BOOM. It skyrockets to 80c based upon the need for Thick Leather or the Cured Thick Leather to be partnered with the Halloween Essence.

Please don’t argue this is normal market speculative behavior….it’s foreknowledge.

Gaviston Hawkington.9647:

Please don’t argue this is normal market speculative behavior….it’s foreknowledge.

It’s normal market speculative behavior.

It’s normal market speculative behavior.

Larynx.2453:

Gaviston Hawkington.9647:

Please don’t argue this is normal market speculative behavior….it’s foreknowledge.

It’s normal market speculative behavior.

I agree , It’s normal market speculative behavior.

It’s because you need 3 stacks of refined leather and some stuff from halloween to craft some other stuff.

ETA: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Cured_Thick_Leather_Square
Essence of Halloween.

I couldn’t remember when John Smith’s blog post was released. Thick leather was one of the materials players most expected to see a change made to. https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/the-guild-wars-2-heart-of-thorns-economy/

It’s normal market speculative behavior. How do I know?

I did it.

A long time ago I knew someone who was on the Test Servers and he always invested in items he knew were going to get more expensive. so it’s not impossible, but in this case everybody and their mothers invested in Leather

So, I’m curious. If this is normal speculative behavior could you show me other items that have a similar curve based upon recent or past speculations?

Gaviston, read the blog post from John Smith, the link is in my previous post. A post like that, while called for, will lead to speculation. If you look more closely at the GW2tp timeline that you posted a link for, it is clear the increase in the price of thick leather follows that post.

An item that was stuck mostly at 8c, an expansion on the horizon, and you didnt think the item was going to go up in price? I didnt need insider knowledge to know this, I just regret not buying more

Found the Oct 13 interview on Dulfy.

<i>Q.Are your efforts more aimed toward bringing down the value of over inflated items such as certain cloths or things like charged lodestones or is the goal to bring up under-utilized and over supplied materials like thick leather sections? or both? I guess in short. Which one would you be manipulating more? supply or demand?

A. there is a mix of both, but we swing more towards the latter than the former.</i>

I’ll concede the linkage, but I’ll ask again…where are the charts for the other under priced over supplied items? Did folks simply laser in on Thick Leather because that was the item mentioned by the interviewer???

Thick leather was specifically mentioned and is the market most often described in the forums as being ‘broken’. I wouldn’t invest any angst in the rapid increase in the price of thick leather.

That being said, insider trading is something every game development company has to protect itself and the player base from. I remember a post by John Smith intimating that he actually ran a sting operation to trap players who were suspected of trading on insider information.

edit: 6 million sections would be 24,000 stacks. Consider how many players would need to be involved just to store that many stacks.

I bought a bunch during that time and had no insider knowledge. I also sweeped up some charged cores the day HoT launched.

Thick Leather was plentiful and available at vendor +15.01% — it’s the most obvious choice for anyone to have bought prior to launch. The only surprising thing is that the price didn’t drop right after launch, due to overspeculation.

More important question:

Why do you care which it is?

Are you really under the assumption you can expose some sort of insider trading scandal that will have any measurable effect?

Let’s say the worst was true, and that you had uncovered some sort of insider trade. Nobody’s getting fired over it. No further market corrections are being made. You’re not getting a shiny medal. At worst someone at arenanet gets told “hey man, don’t do that” because it’s a video game and the comparative values aren’t enough to destabalize the economy.

One person getting rich in an MMO doesn’t matter. When that person getting rich seriously screws up the value of goods for others, that’s when it becomes a problem.

Gaviston Hawkington.9647:

So, I’m curious. If this is normal speculative behavior could you show me other items that have a similar curve based upon recent or past speculations?

Smart TP players can foresee certain things. If you’d like a sample of a previous speculation that came true, look at the history of Silk before and after the Ascended crafting hit.

I was hesitate to buy unlimited batwing tonic because I did not expect the nightfury to require them. Even thought player were posting half recipes for it. That was when it cost 60-75g. I saw it coming but did not expect the nightfury to cost as much as a legendary. Now those tonics costs what 400g. Would had made a huge profit if I invested early.

The item that the thick leather mystic forge recipe leads to is more of a convenience item. Like the mystic forge conduit only a few players will want it. I just hope the recipe stays in the game.

I bought up a ton of thick leather well before before October simply because I noticed how cheap it was and I remembered what happened to silk. I don’t even the intention to resell it for profit. This was purely done to secure my own supply. Although, that being said, a decent chunk of it ended up in guild hall upgrades, but I still have a nice stockpile left.

This is completely normal market speculation. If I could see this coming, anybody could see this coming. All the signs were there.

Gaviston Hawkington.9647:

I’ll concede the linkage, but I’ll ask again…where are the charts for the other under priced over supplied items? Did folks simply laser in on Thick Leather because that was the item mentioned by the interviewer???

Seriously, what was the only really broken market amongst the most basic crafting materials? Ding ding ding! Thick Leather Sections!
When I read the blog post by John Smith on Oct 12, I instantly thought “Thick Leather Sections will go up in price”. Out of all the markets this was the single most obvious one to get a price increase.
So it’s not “someone knew” but more like “everyone that read the news page knew”.