Guild Wars 2

I asked around and people are torn as to what recipe is better for getting clovers 1 or 10, So I wanted to ask here before I begin my quest I have seen people get great rng with the 10 clover recipe getting all of the clovers they needed in only 9 tries but I have also seen people get destroyed by rng.

So from those who have done it what recipe is better in terms of risk do I risk more mats for more reward or just take the slow and t safer way?

I think early on doing it by 10s is better but later on like if you’re at 60 clovers then individually is better. Let’s say you have 40 obsidian shards, mystic coins, and ectoplasms. You can so totally get junk for all those four tries whereas if you do it individually with that few resources you’ll almost certainly come out with at least some clovers.

When I’ve made clovers, I did the 10 recipe until I got to 60 or 70. Then I switch to the 1 recipe. There’s no reason why I do it that way, though. It just works for me.

Some PvP reward tracks give clovers at the end chest. So if you want say all of the Glorious armor set you’d get clovers with every armor box, I think its 3 or 4. So you’d be killing 2 birds with one stone there. When I did clovers via MF I mixed between 1 and 10. I had good results from both. But I would say if you are doing the forge. Do it first. The T6 mats you’ll get will give you a leg up on the mats you’ll need to farm or buy later.

Zaiato.7346:

So from those who have done it what recipe is better in terms of risk do I risk more mats for more reward or just take the slow and t safer way?

For both, they have the same odds of success. The 10 clovers, though, will have higher variance because it requires less tries, and thus a smaller sample size. So 10 is a bit riskier, even though they have the same rates. Personally, I’d do the 1 recipe; I don’t think the fewer tries is worth the higher variance.

1clover is safer as the 33% odds are better. Although what was interesting for me last time I tried was my first 4tries I only got t6 mats back but then i went on a streak getting clovers 5times in a row. I spent a total of 14tries for my 80clovers. It’s all rng some people swear by the one clover recipe while other people do a mixture, i prefer just doing the 10clover recipe since i’m rich and lazy XD

Zaiato.7346:

I asked around and people are torn as to what recipe is better for getting clovers 1 or 10, So I wanted to ask here before I begin my quest I have seen people get great rng with the 10 clover recipe getting all of the clovers they needed in only 9 tries but I have also seen people get destroyed by rng.

So from those who have done it what recipe is better in terms of risk do I risk more mats for more reward or just take the slow and t safer way?

“Better” depends entirely on your luck. If you get clovers popping often, the 10-per recipe is ‘better’ — you spend less and get results faster and with fewer clicks. If your luck is worse than average, you’ll do better with the 1-per option: you’ll spend a lot less and get results faster (although with more clicks probably).

Which is “better” for you personally depends on how you personally view risk:

• How upset will you be if you end up over-spending on the 10-clover recipe?
• How joyful will you be if you end up saving a ton that way?

If your feeling about the first question is stronger, go with the 1-per (and vice-versa).

If you do it before you get your T6 mats or other items that require gold, doing the 10 method probably isn’t too horrible. You’ll get useful mats back. Either to turn to gold to turn to the appropriate mats, or you’ll get mats you need.

If you’re down to just the clovers, you may want to do the 1 clover per or look at the other means to get clovers. There’s the once a month Legendary chest that will give 7 clovers, so you’ll get enough clovers in 11 months. Then there are also PvP tracks that award clovers.

Once you get to 70 clovers, if you don’t want any clovers left over and are using the 10 clover recipe, switch to the 1 clover recipe. Or choose the Legendary chest option once at the end of your log in reward month cycle.

I’ve always been partial to the 1 clover recipe. I figured I need the Clovers, and I need the T6 Mats, so I always went one Clover. It may seem to take awhile, and it does, but you watch your T6 Building up quick, and if you have any plans to build a second legendary, Why stop at 77? I went to 152, In that I then had the clovers need, and almost a quite a few T6 mats needed for the second weapon.

I always start with a stack of 250 clovers/Globs/Mystic Coins

I do the 10 recipe- i have always finished with about 30-40 of each mats left, and around 80 clovers.

do it 1 clover at a time, to be in line with the 33% chance….

Do it by 10’s. Better outcomes and quicker to finish. This is from my experience from making 14 legendaries.

The only difference between those recipes is variance. Using 10 clovers one you are more likely to come out ahead, but you are also equally likely to need more forges. 1 clover recipe will have results closer to the expected average.

I’ve done a mix, but usually 1 at a time.

In my personal RNG hell experience, I’ve found the best way to get clovers is to not need them, and attempt to get T6 mats from the recipe.

Zaiato.7346:

but I have also seen people get destroyed by rng.

I think ‘getting destroyed’ is a bit of an over-exaggeration here. If you don’t get the 10 Mystic Clovers, you still walk away with a handful of rather valuable T6 items.

I’d probably do the 10 Clover thing early, as in, before you’ve already got all the T6 items you need. If you’ve already got the 2 Gifts, then I’d probably go for the 1 Clover technique.

Neither the 1-clover or 10-clover recipe is any “better” or “luckier” than the other. They are identical in results for an equal number of attempts (in probability terms, they both have the same expected value). The only difference is that the 10-clover recipe requires 10 times the inputs to deliver 10 times the output.

If your risk tolerance is low (you only have a single stack of ecto/shards/coins to use and you really need 77 clovers), use the 1-clover recipe. With 250 attempts, you will almost certainly average out the RNG variation and achieve the total expected return of a bit over 80 clovers.

Tamasan.6457:

Neither the 1-clover or 10-clover recipe is any “better” or “luckier” than the other. They are identical in results for an equal number of attempts (in probability terms, they both have the same expected value).

The second statement is a bit misleading: having the same “expected value” means that they have identical averages for 1,000s of attempts. Over the short term, the variance is going to be very different and the short term is what matters for legendary crafting.

• 1-clover version: in 250 tries, there’s a 68% chance of getting 77 successes. For 300 tries, the chance of getting enough goes up to just under 100%.
• 10-clover version: in 25 tries, there’s less than a 58% chance of getting 8 successes (enough for the 77 clovers). For 30 tries, the chances of finishing are still below 80%.

Or put another way, you have to have pretty good luck on the 10-clover recipe to finish using fewer resources than average.

In the long run, neither is any better than the other, but we don’t roll for clovers in the long run; we only roll only a few dozen times (10-clover) or a few dozen dozen times (1-clover) — “long run” in stats is much, much longer than most of us are patient to wait for.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Or put another way, you have to have pretty good luck on the 10-clover recipe to finish using fewer resources than average.

Actually, as i have mentioned already, when comparing to the 1-clover recipe, you do have a greater chance to finish using fewer resources than average – but at the same time you also have greater chance to need more resources. 10-clover recipe is for those that feel lucky, or like gambling (or don’t mind the additional T6 mats). The 1-clover recipe is for those that prefer surety.

Most people have mentioned the difference and given good advice as to when 1 or 10 recepies are viable or recommended. Now from my personal experience:

- crafted 3 legendarys so far. I go by 1 clover at a time even though it is a big hassle
- I did try the 10 clover recepie 4 times, never had luck. Yes getting some materials back is nice, but you still lose out on a lot of gold and the last thing you want while hunting these things down is more bad luck shoved down your throat (subjective I know, but my guess is a lot of people will feel this way)
- while doing single clovers I’ve had everything from luckstreaks where I made 9 clovers one after the other to bad luck streaks where I made 14 attempts at clovers and got nothing back. (the bad luck streak is what I keep reminding myself of every time I think about trying the 10 recepie)

The major difference between both is:

- single clovers – closer to the 33% chance but a lot more tedious
- 10x clovers – wild swings in both ways (higher variance – Illconceived Was Na explained it very nicely 2 posts up).

I always use the 10 clover recipe and actually hope to NOT get clovers as the T6 rewards can be fabulous. Once I get 70 I go back to the single recipe.

10 if you’re feeling lucky, 1 if you want to minimise the chances of RNG hating you. It’s called the law of large numbers.

Depending how fast you want the clovers. I do pvp tracks that give them as an end reward. 100% promise you’ll get them. Though not the fastest way.

do pvp, pick reward tracks that give clovers and you eliminate the rng altogether

I had a streak doing the 10x recipe where I got so many lodestones I was kind of annoyed when clovers popped.

Astralporing.1957:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Or put another way, you have to have pretty good luck on the 10-clover recipe to finish using fewer resources than average.

Actually, as i have mentioned already, when comparing to the 1-clover recipe, you do have a greater chance to finish using fewer resources than average – but at the same time you also have greater chance to need more resources. 10-clover recipe is for those that feel lucky, or like gambling (or don’t mind the additional T6 mats). The 1-clover recipe is for those that prefer surety.

It’s more nuanced than any of us are stating. The truth remains: it depends what you are willing to risk, measured in time, resources, and/or personal frustration.

• The 1-clover recipe offers more reliable results.
• The 10-clover recipe offers more variable results, which could be very good (for a third of those using it), average (over half the time), or very bad (for roughly a fifth) (numbers don’t add up to 100% due to rounding & overlapping cohorts).

You need 77 clover, so that requires 8 successes at the 10-clover recipe and 77 with the 1-clover version. Let’s assume a 32% success rate (the wiki states the range is 30-32%; my own experience is just under 30%). We can use a binomial distribution to predict the odds, since you either get a clover or you don’t (there are no 2+clover results).

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx is what I’m using, although there are plenty of other methods.

For average results:

• For 250 trials, the 1-clover recipe has a 68% chance of 77+ successes.
• For 25 trials, the 10-clover recipe has <58% chance of 8+ successes.

For less than average results:

• 300 trials, 1-clover, 77+ successes: over 99%
• 30 trials, 10-clover, 8+ success: just over 79%

For better than average results:

• 200 trials, 1 clover, 77+ successes: 3%
• 20 trials, 10 clover, 8+ successes: 29%

In other words, the one clover recipe is much more reliable in getting you to the finish line without over-using your resources. The 10-clover recipe is more likely to give you all the clover you want, but it’s not very likely to do so; it’s more likely that you’ll end up over-spending.

my best result of clover gambling was when i crafted my Bolt. 80 clover from 11 tries (10-clover shot ). I was expecting to get T6 from it but got the clovers too fast lol…