Guild Wars 2

Hi all!

I just got my 77th Mystic Clover today, and i noticed that in the beginning of my “Farming” i got about 8/10 all the time. Then when i hit about 20-30, the rate i received Clovers fell to 3-4/10, and at 40 it was down at 0-2/10. When i hit the 20th Clover i decided to do it over time, to see it the rates would increase again, which they didn’t.

Now, lately I’ve been low on Skill Points on my main character, so today went to my Warrior and used his Skill Points, and i got 9 Clovers out of the 10 i made, which means i now have all 77! But this just strengthens the theory I’ve had since the beginning, of the rates you get Clovers at, decreases the more you try. I’ve also heard of other people experiencing the same or even the opposite, where they are unlucky in the beginning and get luckier and luckier. I don’t think this is a coincidence as i hear this too often.

So what do you think? Have you experienced the same or something else? I’d love to hear your stories

Have a nice day!

/Gammarik

Interesting theory. Dunno if I agree, but I was hitting around 60-70% success rate creating them up until the last 20. Then my success dropped to almost 10% — it took 17 tries to get my final 20 clovers.

I had pretty much the same experience; up until 50 clovers, the return was fairly predictable, but after that it dropped off severely. I know I exceeded the expected amount of obby shards by quite a lot.
However, with a random number generator, you do have to take variance into account. It may feel like the game’s against you, but chances are, you just got lucky initially.

What’s really kitten me off at the moment is the ludicrous amount of cash I’m wasting throwing hammers into the Mystic Forge. It’s soul destroying. I got so close last night, getting Magmaton instead of The Colossus.

Mungrul.9358:

I had pretty much the same experience; up until 50 clovers, the return was fairly predictable, but after that it dropped off severely. I know I exceeded the expected amount of obby shards by quite a lot.
However, with a random number generator, you do have to take variance into account. It may feel like the game’s against you, but chances are, you just got lucky initially.

What’s really kitten me off at the moment is the ludicrous amount of cash I’m wasting throwing hammers into the Mystic Forge. It’s soul destroying. I got so close last night, getting Magmaton instead of The Colossus.

Feel sorry for ya man :/. But yeah, a lot of the legendary process sadly is luck based.. And if they even have a script that makes your luck decrease/increase it makes it a lot tougher. Hopefully when i get to the point where i just need Spark, the scavenger hunt has been added

It’s just RNG. The odds (if you do it 1 by 1) are 33% to get a clover, as the average of ecto/mystic coins you need is 231 for 77 clovers.

I had more clovers as I neared the final 20 then what I had gotten in the beginning. It’s nothing more than RNG for this. (At least, I haven’t seen anything so suggest otherwise)

My problem is the opposite, at least so far. I’m getting the clovers too fast. I already have 77 for my first legendary and I figured I’d go for a second, since I bought the precusor on the marketplace.

What I really wanted was tier 6 mats instead of clovers, so I could get the first legendary weapon. Well over 50% of the time I get clovers. I’m up to like 60 of the second 77.

I just think Zomorros is a sadist.

Random Number Generator is (psuedo) Random.

Random results will have patterns, but the patterns are meaningless. It’s just coincidence. People who get roughly a 1/3 rate at the beginning, middle, and end aren’t coming here posting their results. (I’m up to 36 clovers and have had both very lucky streaks and unlucky so far, and I certainly wasn’t getting anything like 80% at the beginning. )

So no. Nothing like this is happening.

It’s called small sample size. And only 77 attempts is a ridiculously small. I’ve done over 300 clover combines and that still is too small a sample size.

You got 8/10? The accepted “norm” has been ~3/10 for…pretty much ever.

If you got 8/10 you were just supremely lucky, nothing more.

I’ve got 36 clovers and statistically I’ve been at pretty much spot-on 3-in-10 since I started making them.

timmyf.1490:

Random Number Generator is (psuedo) Random.

Random results will have patterns, but the patterns are meaningless. It’s just coincidence. People who get roughly a 1/3 rate at the beginning, middle, and end aren’t coming here posting their results. (I’m up to 36 clovers and have had both very lucky streaks and unlucky so far, and I certainly wasn’t getting anything like 80% at the beginning. )

So no. Nothing like this is happening.

this

also, if you still don’t believe it, I had my worst rate at the start rather than the end

I’m on my 47th clover and I’m steadily riding the 3/10-ish average.

Read up on probability. What you’re seeing is very likely to happen and doesn’t means rates change. It’s a common mistake that people see like when someone gets nothing with MF gear and then gets a good drop the second they take it off.

I did the 10 recipe in the end. I tried a few times on the 1 a pop recipe but didn’t get much luck. On the 10 recipe I hit a streak of 5 in a row missed on the next two tries and hit another streak that got me the rest. Ended up with 82.

I flipped a coin three times and got heads each time. Obviously, the tails side is broken.

Okay, okay i get it, i get it I’ve just heard from many others that they’ve had same experience and wanted to see what others thought. Thanks for your feedback. This has been bothering me for a long time, and i can finally lie it to rest :P

Have a nice day!

/Gammarik

As a side note, I finally got my precursor, “The Colossus”, on Friday evening.
I’m well chuffed, but still think the Mystic Forge acquisition method is horrible.
I’m also very tempted to sell it, as it’s worth a silly amount of gold.
But no, I’m now working on the other stupidly expensive gifts. I just need a ridiculous amount of over-priced ingredients now.

I recently got my 77 Clovers in 1 go, and didn’t notice that much of a drop near the end.

I think it took me around 260-270 tries to get them. Just over a stack of Ectos.

I don’t think so, from my experience. I’ve completed two sets of clovers, and in both cases I actually got increased success rates towards the end. But, in the end, it’s all just luck; some people will get 30 in one go and then none for a while, and some will get the exact opposite.