Guild Wars 2

I think the Guild Wars team needs to consider the impact of the in game rewards they gave out during the Lost Shore event. I took part in the Lost Shores event and received about 4 gold worth of items. There were at least 5-6 people on the overflow I was on who received precursors. Assuming they sell it for around 120 gold as they are now priced that chest contained well over $100 of in game currency for about 1-3% of the community.

Let me be clear I am not complaining that I got left out, I am suggesting that by being so reckless with the Guild Wars 2 in game economy you are turning a certain portion of players off. You have spiked the gem market by 50% over the weekend as the players who have made hundreds of gold convert it into gems. This excludes the rest of the players from being able to purchase gem store items with in game money at anywhere near the same level as we could just a few days ago.

Driving up gem prices means less access to gem store content for the majority of players, and in turn will make more players decide they will have to purchase gems to get the items they want in game.

This kind of poor market control, or if it’s true intentional hyperinflation of the games gem market has made me decide not to support Guild Wars 2 with gem purchases until they show they have some understanding of how the in game markets work, and show they are not trying to exclude non-cash players from being able to access content.

The reason I am being so critical is that anyone who takes a few seconds to think about it realizes that dumping such a large amount of wealth into a minority of the economy in one burst will raise gem prices by a very large amount. If they were trying to lower precursors there were so many ways to do it without destroying the market integrity. This was the best possible way to justify a large gem price raise, and lower precursor prices. It was also one of the least fair ways to completely redistribute the wealth of the game.

I think it’s one of the responsibilities of a game designer to consider fairness, and rewards when making game choices. I feel like the Lost Shore shows a failure on the part of both reward vs. effort, and fairness. Most of the anger seems to stem from the fact that the event only rewarded people in the right timezones, and of those players rewarded a small minority with lot of gold, while the majority got modest amounts. I hope they don’t just brush all of this anger off as entitled players whining, but rather take a moment and question their own game design choices that caused the anger and frustration.

I hope this was somewhat constructive. I still love the game, and I think Fractals are up there among the best content I have ever experienced in a game, so Lost Shore really was a mixed bag for me.

I can’t get on the game so I can’t confirm, but a 50% spike in gem prices? I remain doubtful. Care to post the graph of gem exchange rates on that one tab in the BLT?

Another reason why I’m doubtful is that, yes, some rare items were introduced, but no new sources of gold was introduced to the economy. So overall, I don’t think inflation should happen since the amount of gold in the overall economy is still about the same.

Well, it’s more like a 25% spike since Sunday, but still significant:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/gem

The reason I am suggeting 50% is that if you look at Halloween after the event items and hype died off, the gem prices fell back to pre-event levels. In this case it is rising to 25% over the event levels. Right now it is trading at 50% over the pre-event levels (which is should have returned to)

It’s true the overall money in the system is the same. What changed is the wealth distribution.

I think this is a good example of what happened. Say there are the ultra-wealthy (the botters, mass traders, and early forge glitches) They each have 1,000 gold. They have little demand for anything because they already own everything they want. They make up .1% of the community.

Now Lost Shore comes along and gives items worth 100 gold to 3% users. Those 3% sell their items and receive 100 gold mostly from those who have massive wealth already, enough to buy precursors.

Now instead of the .1% that had gained wealth but wasn’t having much impact on the market, you now have 3% all with significant trading power. That is much worse for the 97% who got nothing. Now they are in competition with many more wealthy traders. Sure there may still be the same wealth out there, but you are in a much worse position in terms of trading.

Just checked the market data and there has been no spike in currencies in game since Friday, nor would I expect any to grow out of the weekend event. Damage to the economy as a result of rare drops is pretty much a non-starter as an issue growing out of the patch.

I think your comment about “fairness, and rewards” is probably more to the point as to why you have a problem with rare drops in the event. Personally, I don’t want everyone to get rare drops “fairly” and I speak as one who has never seen anything like a precursor drop. What I would like to see is a loot system that functions in such a way as to make players feel generally rewarded for playing the game. Rare drops should be rare and there is nothing fair about how you drop rare items. And, personally, I celebrate the good fortune of those who got a precursor—gratz to them all.

I am suggesting that gem prices are going up because of it. I think the graph posted above speaks for itself, and clearly shows the market data.

lDeadeyesl.9156:

The reason I am suggeting 50% is that if you look at Halloween after the event items and hype died off, the gem prices fell back to pre-event levels. In this case it is rising to 25% over the event levels. Right now it is trading at 50% over the pre-event levels (which is should have returned to)

It’s true the overall money in the system is the same. What changed is the wealth distribution.

I think this is a good example of what happened. Say there are the ultra-wealthy (the botters, mass traders, and early forge glitches) They each have 1,000 gold. They have little demand for anything because they already own everything they want. They make up .1% of the community.

Now Lost Shore comes along and gives items worth 100 gold to 3% users. Those 3% sell their items and receive 100 gold mostly from those who have massive wealth already, enough to buy precursors.

Now instead of the .1% that had gained wealth but wasn’t having much impact on the market, you now have 3% all with significant trading power. That is much worse for the 97% who got nothing. Now they are in competition with many more wealthy traders. Sure there may still be the same wealth out there, but you are in a much worse position in terms of trading.

Ah, so now it’s not a spike (which didn’t actually happen) it’s a change in wealth distribution. And since we have no possible way to know the actual numbers you are suggesting that the wealthy (those with trading power) have moved from 1% to 3%. Actually, you have no way of possibly knowing any of this, right? What I see in terms of actual evidence is a tendency to evaluate events in terms of class warfare. There are the rich and the only thing rich people do is exploit poor people, right? But, the rich didn’t even get richer here, probably the poor got richer. And that disadvantages you and you want justice, all because a miniscule number of players had good fortune in a game on Sunday. Sometimes you just need to shake your head and shake it off (luckily I have a warrior so I can do this.)

rolls eyes at the drama

I am saying giving lots of gold to players that didn’t have that much before will spike gem sales as they buy stuff the want from the gem store with the new wealth they now have. It’s not a giant conspiracy, and they are not taking advantage of anything. They are being logical and buying things they want. I am suggesting this move made it harder for people to convert gold to gems. So yes people are directly hurt from the Lost Shore loot. The numbers I used were made up, but I think its fair to say a lot of players got a lot of wealth randomly over the weekend. It’s common sense some of that is going into the gem store.

lDeadeyesl.9156:

rolls eyes at the drama

I am saying giving lots of gold to players that didn’t have that much before will spike gem sales as they buy stuff the want from the gem store with the new wealth they now have. It’s not a giant conspiracy, and they are not taking advantage of anything. They are being logical and buying things they want. I am suggesting this move made it harder for people to convert gold to gems. So yes people are directly hurt from the Lost Shore loot. The numbers I used were made up, but I think its fair to say a lot of players got a lot of wealth randomly over the weekend. It’s common sense some of that is going into the gem store.

I think you’re making a small mistake here. Players weren’t given a lot of gold, they were giving a rare item which they then sold to other players for gold.

Yes, some people got wealthier. But other people who bought these items got poorer. So like I said in my previous post, the overall amount of gold in the economy remained about the same. Which is why you aren’t seeing this “50% spike” you’ve been talking about. Just a gradual ~15% increase, which we don’t even know is due to the event.

I’ve been watching the gem prices recently, too. I actually have a very different take.

Look at GW2Spidy again. Select the 1 month view. From November 2nd to November 12th, gem prices are flat — extremely stable.

Take a look at November 13. That’s the beginning of the rise. It’s been rising since then. November 13 is also the date of Linsey’s post on Ascended gear.

Let’s go back to the climb in prices starting on November 13. There could be two explanations for this:

(1) Players started buying gems with in-game gold in anticipation of the Lost Shores release. Supply stays the same. Demand increases. Prices rise.

(2) Players angered by Linsey’s post on ascended gear stopped buying gems with real money. Supply dwindles. Demand remains the same. Prices rise.

I take the second view for two reasons:

(a) Players already knew when Lost Shores would be released. Having a sudden rise on the 13th and NOT having it be a result of Linsey’s post would make the timing coincidence. And you know what they say about coincidences.

(b) There is simply not that many things to buy on the BLTC that is anything of value, really. Character slots, bank slots. What else? Those idiotic chests? This event is indisputably worse in terms of items you can buy. Even minipets are stuck as a RNG reward in a chest that is widely touted by players as an obvious, moneygrabbing scheme.

Yet gem prices continue to skyrocket. Again, I ask. What are they spending that many gems on?

I go with the theory that supply is far, far down, and demand hovers around normal.

lDeadeyesl.9156:

rolls eyes at the drama

I am saying giving lots of gold to players that didn’t have that much before will spike gem sales as they buy stuff the want from the gem store with the new wealth they now have. It’s not a giant conspiracy, and they are not taking advantage of anything. They are being logical and buying things they want. I am suggesting this move made it harder for people to convert gold to gems. So yes people are directly hurt from the Lost Shore loot. The numbers I used were made up, but I think its fair to say a lot of players got a lot of wealth randomly over the weekend. It’s common sense some of that is going into the gem store.

Your initial problem is demonstrating a problem. I mentioned I looked at the market data. I see no indication of a currency spike associated, even remotely, with the very rare drop of precursor items on Sunday. And, you admit you have no basis for your numbers and therefore no basis for your drama. There were many significant issues growing out the the weekend patch. This is not one of them.

Lirael.2603:

I’ve been watching the gem prices recently, too. I actually have a very different take.

Look at GW2Spidy again. Select the 1 month view. From November 2nd to November 12th, gem prices are flat — extremely stable.

Take a look at November 13. That’s the beginning of the rise. It’s been rising since then. November 13 is also the date of Linsey’s post on Ascended gear.

Let’s go back to the climb in prices starting on November 13. There could be two explanations for this:

(1) Players started buying gems with in-game gold in anticipation of the Lost Shores release. Supply stays the same. Demand increases. Prices rise.

(2) Players angered by Linsey’s post on ascended gear stopped buying gems with real money. Supply dwindles. Demand remains the same. Prices rise.

I take the second view for two reasons:

(a) Players already knew when Lost Shores would be released. Having a sudden rise on the 13th and NOT having it be a result of Linsey’s post would make the timing coincidence. And you know what they say about coincidences.

(b) There is simply not that many things to buy on the BLTC that is anything of value, really. Character slots, bank slots. What else? Those idiotic chests? This event is indisputably worse in terms of items you can buy. Even minipets are stuck as a RNG reward in a chest that is widely touted by players as an obvious, moneygrabbing scheme.

Yet gem prices continue to skyrocket. Again, I ask. What are they spending that many gems on?

I go with the theory that supply is far, far down, and demand hovers around normal.

Yeah looking closer at the data I think you are probably correct. When they realized that the top gear in the game is a random drop from fractals there is really no point to buy gems to trade for gold anymore, and I’m sure there was a large group who decided not to support the game out of anger.

Anyhow I’m pretty sure you guys are right, and the influx of rare drops are not the culprit at this point.