Guild Wars 2

I have been in this game since Beta in 2012 and… ya know, this rant may be useless, maybe not, don’t get mad at me or slam me on anything, I insult no one here.

But in this time I have seen many people, friends and random people, heck, even my husband, my own husband… pull a high-value precursor out of the mystic toilet.

My husband on his very 4th try of the MF ever – he gets Zap in 2014. Then, last week, a friend of mine got Dusk from it, I ask her how, I share this with my husband, her good fortune, and…

He says, “Sweetie, it’s a gimick, it’s all random. Watch, I’ll do it again, and you’ll see, I’ll get nada…” 5 tries into it, he gets Spark. Then he looks at me and was like, “Uhhh… heh… err…”

Um, okay, uh… I have had my own tries, I have dumped about 2,000 to 3,000 gold int the mystic forge worth of lvl 68 to lvl 80 rare and exotic gear in there, which I just tried again tonight, and… nada. NADA! After almost 3 years officially, I get NOTHING… yet everyone I know in this game, MF smiles on them, or there get theirs in battle or… ugh… I have a 181% Magic Find percentage, when buffed, I run about at 450% MF, I just, I swear to Grenth, I am vexed. That in 3 years time I have gotten nothing of the sort from any of those two methods, Mystic Forging or Farming and.. I’m just about convinced I am the butt of someone’s joke here.

If I am doing something wrong, someone, please please enlighten me?

Did you kill Ancient Karka long ago?

No? I got lagged out before I could get within 20 feet of it.

Curious question here lol…. are you still married? I bet you could have killed him when he did that! Joking aside, I am sure you have good fortune right around the corner!

Jaymee.1560:

No? I got lagged out before I could get within 20 feet of it.

Ah.. if only. if only.

All this could of been avoided. u.u

Doggie.3184:

Jaymee.1560:

No? I got lagged out before I could get within 20 feet of it.

Ah.. if only. if only.

All this could of been avoided. u.u

Why? Did you get a lucky karka foot that increased precursor drop rates?

anx.7549:

Curious question here lol…. are you still married? I bet you could have killed him when he did that! Joking aside, I am sure you have good fortune right around the corner!

LMAO!!!! I knew that was going to get a reaction. I couldn’t kill him, he gave me the Spark, but that’s not the point. I don’t wanna run around saying, “My husband got lucky at the MF, look, he gave me Spark!”

No, just ONCE, I would like to have the MF smile upon me, ya know? But, it seems to insist on giving me the finger.

No, but a lot of players got precursors during the Ancient Karka event from the end chest. If your character was 80 and not being upscaled like mine was (got a lvl 60 exotic instead…)…

But I know the pain. Been playing since the earliest BWE possible, but it wasn’t until the Lunar New Year that I got my first drop worth anything more than 15g. Of course, I’m 99.999% sure that the months of February and March ate up my luck for not only the past three years but the next three as well as during that time I got Fractal Shortbow, Fractal Sword, Dawn, Chaos Gun, and The Chosen (not in that order) – all about a week apart. Ironically I got them all just after I finally finished making Kraitkin (bought that precursor as it’s semi-cheap). I did get lucky about last month with a Tequatl Hoard though, and yesterday/saturday with my first ascended box from Fractals lvl 45 personal reward (lvl 49 run). So maybe my luck isn’t all eaten up…

Doggie.3184:

Jaymee.1560:

No? I got lagged out before I could get within 20 feet of it.

Ah.. if only. if only.

All this could of been avoided. u.u

The point he is making is that a lot of people got a precursor during that. It in no way has any effect on your precursor drops.

The only real answer anyone can give you is that it’s RNG. There’s been a lot of post over the psat 3 years giving anecdotal evidence “proving” it’s broken. But obviously that’s worthless. Other posts have given more concrete data to prove RNG is broken, but miss something – like their sample size not being big enough. Or failing to understand that their results are within the realm of possibility, even if they are unlikely.

Jaymee.1560:

anx.7549:

Curious question here lol…. are you still married? I bet you could have killed him when he did that! Joking aside, I am sure you have good fortune right around the corner!

LMAO!!!! I knew that was going to get a reaction. I couldn’t kill him, he gave me the Spark, but that’s not the point. I don’t wanna run around saying, “My husband got lucky at the MF, look, he gave me Spark!”

No, just ONCE, I would like to have the MF smile upon me, ya know? But, it seems to insist on giving me the finger.

Sounds like he’s a great hubby… If he ever gets a spare and wants to throw it in my direction lol… Keep us updated when you do get good fortune, I’d love to say, yep told you so

Okay, that’s all I wanted to know, guys, and thank you for the sincere answers here. Cause, you have to look at it from my shoes. Everyone in the game, everyone you know it the game, EVEN the man you’re MARRIED to hits the jackpot – TWICE in 3 years, but you never do. It really just seemed as if there was a proper sequence to this, one that I would obviously be doing improperly…

But, if it IS actually all 100% RNG, then the question of whether or not I should keep trying from time to time is completely up to my discretion?

serenke.4806:

Doggie.3184:

Jaymee.1560:

No? I got lagged out before I could get within 20 feet of it.

Ah.. if only. if only.

All this could of been avoided. u.u

Why? Did you get a lucky karka foot that increased precursor drop rates?

That beautiful creature is probably the only thing to ever bless me with good luck all these years and got me Incinerator. It’s why I still visit it’s grave with flowers. Outside of that~ farming and RNGing anything in this game has given me 0 odds of any success. I miss my little crab angel.

Well, the best method is to use the forge on sundays. Always approach the forge from the south, run around it twice in a complete circle, then turn until you look to towards it. Then perform a /bow emote. While putting in rares, always pick them in a diagonal pattern never straight.

If you throw in enough rares, this will work 100%

When you put 4 exotic/rare items into the forge, the average level of the four items has to be at least 75 (not 74.9, doesn’t round up), for a chance of a precursor. When you said level 68-80, the average may have not been high enough to register for a chance at a precursor. I’ve forged over 200 precursors myself, and the tries per precursor stat averages out once you’ve put in a sufficient sample size. That being said, you are working with too small of a sample size (but I would not advise gambling any more than you’ve actually have, should just buy it with gold next time or wait for HoT)

Jaymee, if it makes you feel better, I’ve thrown in I don’t know how many thousands of weapons into the MF, never gotten a precursor from it or as a drop, have 300% MF from luck and have had that for I think about a year now, and have over 10k hours in the game.

And I did that old karka event on an 80 and got two kittenty exotics from it.

Still sitting at 0 precursors earned. Only one I’ve gotten, I bought. lol

My guildies at half my MF ping their drops to me to teasingly rub it in that RNGesus likes them more than me. XD They get more rares and exotics than I do.

lmao, I use my guardian, she has the most bag space, I feel her up with 139 lvl 80 rares and you’re telling me that’s “not enough”?

Hey Jaymee
For “hexed” people, there would be a option – check it out : https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/a-legendary-journey/

btw. Welcome to the club of “hexed” people.

Why do you keep shoving that money down the forge if it’s already clear that you won’t be getting one? With the money you’ve gambled away you could’ve easily bought pretty much any legendary straight from the TP with no rng involved. Or better yet you could’ve probably crafted 2 or 3 legendaries if you used your own materials.

I’ve never had good RNG in this game yet I have 9 legendaries and 10th on the way once I get the motivation to finish it. Just stop gambling and start investing.

I know how you feel Jaymee. My boyfriend has received 6 precursor drops from MF all in all, including expensive ones like the Legend and he only ever threw in rares. On top of that he gets a fairly priced exotic usually once a week and he’s sitting on top of 3 Tequatl hoards.

I have only ever received one precursor, Venom. It was worth 20g at the time. Usually when I get an exotic it’s an underwater weapon. I have one Tequatl’s hoard and I’ve been doing Tequatl nearly everyday after the update. I have 9 fractal skins, 3 of them are underwater skins and the first one I ever received was the speargun skin. I don’t throw stuff in the mystic forge, I don’t have that kind of luck. At best I’d probably get Rage, after throwing in thousands of gold. So… waiting for precursor hunt

Pretty much the same here. Been here since closed beta, never got a precursor anywhere. Husband tries the mystic fountain with some random rares, gets a precursor.

Some accounts, apparently, are extremely lucky. And some are anything but.

Jaymee.1560:

No, just ONCE, I would like to have the MF smile upon me, ya know? But, it seems to insist on giving me the finger.

Go into it without expecting to get a precursor. I dont, and I’ve pulled 6 precs out that I’ve turned around and sold, funding my outfit purchases and the precursors that followed.

You’re not alone, My Mrs is in the exact same situation as you. She has played 1000s of hours, MF a boatload of items and nothing where as myself and our group of friends have all gotten pre’s from the forge.

TBH she hasn’t even got any decent drops, nothing above 10g ever from memory.
Plus she was stuffed over with the portal stone. She farmed for DAYS and nothing. I got one from the very 1st mob i killed. (i let her use my account to play beta <3 )

I buy/make her everything she wants in the game but I know she really wants RNG to stop fracking her over. We both honestly believe that some people just have horrendous RNG, you and her both seem to be in that category.

I got a Dusk when the MF was virtually empty. One or 2 ppl maybe. I would try when it’s quiet and no one’s there. You never know.

if it makes you feel better. Playing gw2 since beta and never got any percursor yet. Used to throw several hundred lvl 80 rares from time to time (usually crafted by myself) and tens (hundreds?) of exotics (recently 3x coupled with mystic stone). My best out was 8-g worth exotic. Spend about 3k gold, could buy a legendary weapon by now or a few precursors. Unfortunately I feel like some of rng is tied to accounts themselves. I have bad rng in almost everything: like scarlet event where mystery quaggan tonic dropped, after hours I got none (my brother went in for 10 minutes to see the event, got it after 7); Luminescent armor? took me 49 boss runs to drop first chest box… worry not, there is always someone with worse luck
PS: and yes, I joined ancient karka event, had lvl 80 for ages, got exotic from chest, but it was a trash spear

a member of my guild get precursor quite frequently, most of his tries were using the rare he got from world boss hunting.

1 thing we noticed is that he did his magic in the Royal Terrace… i know, rng is rng, but could that be a factor ? i don’t know….

this is the massive downside to true RNG chances with minuscule rates and is why there are so many conspiracy theories about some accounts being “luckier” than others.

I’ve also never seen a pre, doubt I ever will, and I’ve accepted that as pretty much inevitable until precursor crafting due to the terrible way in which precursors are found (ie, 100% pure RNG).

Never seen a precursor in all my play time, BUT RNGesus has been faithful and i’ve landed a Teq Hoard, Zoija Wep Box, and 2 Ascended SoldierArmor chests.

Remain stout in your disbelief/belief in the power of the RNG my friends

We need Loot 2.0 in this game.

I don’t care for economy. I care for fun.

A friend and guildmate of mine she got Dusk from the MF twice in a row. I hava played almost everyday since headstart (Not done any MF stuff) and I have never got a precursor. My brother almost never plays GW2 but about 1 hour a week max and he looted a precursor from a Moa or something in Gendarran Fields.

Another Guildmate got an Infinite Hairstylist thingy… For me that is worth more than any Precursor.

…. I shouldn’t complain becouse I looted scarlets Kiss and Scarlets Rainbow right after eachother.

I don’t beleave in what others say but I think RNG in this game is wako, if you loot a precursor, the chances seems to be greater that you will loot another and mostly it is a duplicate. So it feels like that when you loot good stuff sometimes the lucko’meeter is stuck at ‘really lucky’!

I’m fully convinced there are lucky accounts where that account has a better chance to get desirable items. If luck was equal across all accounts then drops would even out but instead we hear all the time about people getting multiple drops of precursors.

The ’multiple drop’ phenomenon was clearly highlighted during the last closed beta testing for HoT where people farmed in SW for hours for an access key and got nothing but others got lots in a relatively short time.

I’m in the ’never lucky’ group so have had to earn anything I have by grinding but that’s fine, no one ever said life is fair. I’m currently saving everything I get on the off chance it becomes part of the crafted precursor recipe.

I have been ridiculed for stating this view before and expect to be again but kitten it, I believe what I see.

Jaymee,

I am in a very similar boat. I have played since prerelease (admittedly, not solidly in that time), and have also not had that ‘RNG’ drop. I introduced my girlfriend to the game about a year after release, and we generally play together, doing the same content, about 90% of the time. And yet in all that time, she received (in this order): permanent hair contract from BLC from personal story key, dusk from achievement linked chest, dusk from SW greater nightmare chest.

My highest value item ever was when i got white dye (last week), worth 40g. The three drops listed has made my girlfriend’s account worth 4k gold.

Now for the other similarity between us. She felt bad for getting the second dusk, so sent it to me, and I sold it to try and get my money up and save for the HoT stuff. But still….MY account still hasnt had that lucky drop.

Oh, and I MF every rare weapon that I find. My girlfriend never mystic forges…

Fairness, it does not exist.

Spirited Was Eceni.3869:

I’m fully convinced there are lucky accounts where that account has a better chance to get desirable items. If luck was equal across all accounts then drops would even out but instead we hear all the time about people getting multiple drops of precursors.

The ‘multiple drop’ phenomenon was clearly highlighted during the last closed beta testing for HoT where people farmed in SW for hours for an access key and got nothing but others got lots in a relatively short time.

I’m in the ‘never lucky’ group so have had to earn anything I have by grinding but that’s fine, no one ever said life is fair. I’m currently saving everything I get on the off chance it becomes part of the crafted precursor recipe.

I have been ridiculed for stating this view before and expect to be again but kitten it, I believe what I see.

I’m in the club too.

However I believe I don’t get good drops or a precursor because I am a sinner. It is merely how many poor souls I have decked and killed in Spvp+WvW that is probably coming back to haunt me.

Maybe I should PvE more and help my comrades out rather than opting to put a flag (Or in this case a super adventure nuke) through their pleading defeated form.

I’m in your situation too but after 3 years just found out on wiki you don’t use just any high level rare or exotic gear but only weapons. Not one of my proudest moments. This whole time I was never going for a legendary so i was just tossing stuff into the forge expecting a wild precursor to appear at some point.

You PVE’ers should consider yourselves all lucky.

In WvW we get spoons.

Spirited Was Eceni.3869:

I’m fully convinced there are lucky accounts where that account has a better chance to get desirable items. If luck was equal across all accounts then drops would even out but instead we hear all the time about people getting multiple drops of precursors.

The ‘multiple drop’ phenomenon was clearly highlighted during the last closed beta testing for HoT where people farmed in SW for hours for an access key and got nothing but others got lots in a relatively short time.

I’m in the ‘never lucky’ group so have had to earn anything I have by grinding but that’s fine, no one ever said life is fair. I’m currently saving everything I get on the off chance it becomes part of the crafted precursor recipe.

I have been ridiculed for stating this view before and expect to be again but kitten it, I believe what I see.

RNG does not mean ‘fair’. There are no luck accounts. There are too small sample sizes.

The problem is, that the drop chances are very small and the sample sizes – even if you do thousands of attempts – are still way too small to even out the fluctuations in the random distribution. Do a million attempts several times and you will see that the random chance is evenly spread on that sample size. If you do smaller sample sizes, streaks start dominating the distribution. That’s normal and in the nature of randomness.

This would only go away if the drop chances would rise significantly. Then the sample sizes we can achieve by playing would be big enough. So… if instead of directly dropping a precursor you would receive a precursor shard at 100x the drop chance and you’d need 100 shards – there would be way less people feeling they are unlucky.

Jaymee.1560:

I have been in this game since Beta in 2012 and… ya know, this rant may be useless, maybe not, don’t get mad at me or slam me on anything, I insult no one here.

But in this time I have seen many people, friends and random people, heck, even my husband, my own husband… pull a high-value precursor out of the mystic toilet.

My husband on his very 4th try of the MF ever – he gets Zap in 2014. Then, last week, a friend of mine got Dusk from it, I ask her how, I share this with my husband, her good fortune, and…

He says, “Sweetie, it’s a gimick, it’s all random. Watch, I’ll do it again, and you’ll see, I’ll get nada…” 5 tries into it, he gets Spark. Then he looks at me and was like, “Uhhh… heh… err…”

Um, okay, uh… I have had my own tries, I have dumped about 2,000 to 3,000 gold int the mystic forge worth of lvl 68 to lvl 80 rare and exotic gear in there, which I just tried again tonight, and… nada. NADA! After almost 3 years officially, I get NOTHING… yet everyone I know in this game, MF smiles on them, or there get theirs in battle or… ugh… I have a 181% Magic Find percentage, when buffed, I run about at 450% MF, I just, I swear to Grenth, I am vexed. That in 3 years time I have gotten nothing of the sort from any of those two methods, Mystic Forging or Farming and.. I’m just about convinced I am the butt of someone’s joke here.

If I am doing something wrong, someone, please please enlighten me?

I’ve been told that with the mystic toilet they pretty much have to be level 80 rares, but that your odds go up with level 80 exotics. I have a friend who has spent roughly 200 gold each time she decided to get something, using all exotics, and would by the time she reached around the 200 gold mark she got what she was trying to get. Done it three times now.

I have had 200 gold precisely once, and I used it on other things. I hate farming, despise it, I have serious gamer ADHD, so I figured it would be highly unlikely I’d ever get a precursor via the toilet.

But with HoT coming out we don’t have to anymore.

RNG is RNG. RNG is always RNG. Statistics only tell you probabilities, not realities. All possible outcomes are possible, so never getting anything is just something that can happen, and does.

Jaymee.1560:

5 tries into it, he gets Spark.

Zommoros is top tier troll.

That is rule #1. He giveth to those not seeking and to those seeking he leaveth salt.

Just want to say, that if your husband gave you spark, that you not the one that’s been hexed. ^^

You know what, I think they have some bugs there somewhere. There was a rumour going around how vet people were less lucky than new players.

I myself never got squat, which eventually led me to post a rage post on the forums. After that I got ‘some’ stuff => I started getting exotic items out of champ bags now and then, and I got 2 fractal skins :O It’s died down a bit since then but it makes me suspect they are working on their RNG and they might be tweaking things in the background. Eg if there was a bug that was affecting me they might have gone and done something.

It’s easy to think there might be a bug affecting vet players luck because 3 years after launch they fixed the percentages on salvage kits

The only way to know really is to get official statement from them stating there were no such tweaks, and they do not know of such bugs (which doesn’t mean bugs don’t exist).

I’m in general in favor of minimizing RNG, so for precursor at least you’ll be able to craft one with HoT And your hb hopefully gave you one of his? :O

Kal Spiro.9745:

RNG is RNG. RNG is always RNG. Statistics only tell you probabilities, not realities. All possible outcomes are possible, so never getting anything is just something that can happen, and does.

I remember Brian Cox explaining, how, as he made a sandcastle on a beach. That there is no Law in Physics that says that that same sandcastle, when blown away by the wind, can’t reform itself somewhere else, in ‘exactly’ the same shape as he made it with his bucket.

Billions to one? Maybe. but purely ‘random’.

Interesting subject. RNG.

yorick.1305:

Kal Spiro.9745:

RNG is RNG. RNG is always RNG. Statistics only tell you probabilities, not realities. All possible outcomes are possible, so never getting anything is just something that can happen, and does.

I remember Brian Cox explaining, how, as he made a sandcastle on a beach. That there is no Law in Physics that says that that same sandcastle, when blown away by the wind, can’t reform itself somewhere else, in ‘exactly’ the same shape as he made it with his bucket.

Billions to one? Maybe. but purely ‘random’.

Interesting subject. RNG.

I have always followed the assertion that whenever I flip a coin it could come up broccoli.

Gimli.9461:

You know what, I think they have some bugs there somewhere. There was a rumour going around how vet people were less lucky than new players.

:O

Actually , not a rumor but it affected all accounts not just vets. RNG creates ‘outliers’ (to use a term referred to by Anet) that results with some accounts getting more on a regular basis and some accounts the get nothing. Once you are tagged as an outlier account—your are stuck with getting nothing.

Halvorn.9831:

Spirited Was Eceni.3869:

I’m fully convinced there are lucky accounts where that account has a better chance to get desirable items. If luck was equal across all accounts then drops would even out but instead we hear all the time about people getting multiple drops of precursors.

The ‘multiple drop’ phenomenon was clearly highlighted during the last closed beta testing for HoT where people farmed in SW for hours for an access key and got nothing but others got lots in a relatively short time.

I’m in the ‘never lucky’ group so have had to earn anything I have by grinding but that’s fine, no one ever said life is fair. I’m currently saving everything I get on the off chance it becomes part of the crafted precursor recipe.

I have been ridiculed for stating this view before and expect to be again but kitten it, I believe what I see.

RNG does not mean ‘fair’. There are no luck accounts. There are too small sample sizes.

The problem is, that the drop chances are very small and the sample sizes – even if you do thousands of attempts – are still way too small to even out the fluctuations in the random distribution. Do a million attempts several times and you will see that the random chance is evenly spread on that sample size. If you do smaller sample sizes, streaks start dominating the distribution. That’s normal and in the nature of randomness.

This would only go away if the drop chances would rise significantly. Then the sample sizes we can achieve by playing would be big enough. So… if instead of directly dropping a precursor you would receive a precursor shard at 100x the drop chance and you’d need 100 shards – there would be way less people feeling they are unlucky.

Then how would you call a guy who spends 1 hour farming champions and gets 3 precursors? I was with him in TS, he was giggling like a maniac. And he already owned 10+ legendaries, by his guildmates’ account.

RNG. Don’t do it.

Broom.2561:

Then how would you call a guy who spends 1 hour farming champions and gets 3 precursors? I was with him in TS, he was giggling like a maniac. And he already owned 10+ legendaries, by his guildmates’ account.

I would be skeptical that he actually got those drops and suspect that he was giggling in TS because he was just pasting the item link into chat to troll. But it is possible for it to randomly happen. Some people even win the lottery multiple times…

http://gawker.com/virgina-couple-wins-lottery-three-times-in-a-month-1555788806