Guild Wars 2

Why the sudden tank in Ecto prices? I take my eyes off of them for a few days after buying thousands of them, and now they’ve lost 25% of their value. There couldn’t be that many Ecto hoarders just waiting for the update, right? In order to affect the price to this extent, there would have to be hundreds of thousands of Ectos being released into the supply.

Did players find something more profitable than AB in the new release? Or is it more along the lines of depression because there’s nothing new to spend Ectos on? Whatever the reason, I now have a choice to either hold onto them until the market recovers, or just go crazy with Tarrktun and pray I don’t lose my shirt.

Well I didn’t farm the new map that much yet, but rares seem to be popping like crazy from event rewards and stuff. Probably everyone trying out the new map cause a too big supply. I expect it will stabilize when people go back to their daily routines.

Nansen.4631:

Well I didn’t farm the new map that much yet, but rares seem to be popping like crazy from event rewards and stuff. Probably everyone trying out the new map cause a too big supply. I expect it will stabilize when people go back to their daily routines.

I think this is a very reasonable assumption.

I got more ectos in a couple of days than I have done in 9 months!!!!11!!

(I haven’t played in 9 months)

But yes, a rare drops for every event you complete (until DR kick in?) but it still means on a good map or if you’re being vigilant, you can chain events and get a rare every few minutes.

• AB multiloot farm didn’t get adjusted, as many predicted — many had been saving ecto in anticipation of a price boost. Since that didn’t happen, many of those decided to dump supply before it dropped too much — textbook example of market panic, caused by self-fulfilling fears.
• Lots of people returned to the game to play the new story, map. Many return finding a lot of wealth in storage, gold in the TP pick up window. That often leads to people being willing to accept lower prices for commodities (and pay more for luxuries).

In short, this is what a lot of gw2economy watchers would have predicted:

• AB ML nerf → (somewhat) higher ecto prices
• No nerf → lower ecto prices

New 80 map plus quick salvage = flood of ectos and enhancements. Rare enhancements are near NPC value on many.

Insta-sell drives down the buy order price quickly and the sell price follow down to stay attractive.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

• AB multiloot farm didn’t get adjusted, as many predicted — many had been saving ecto in anticipation of a price boost. Since that didn’t happen, many of those decided to dump supply before it dropped too much — textbook example of market panic, caused by self-fulfilling fears.
• Lots of people returned to the game to play the new story, map. Many return finding a lot of wealth in storage, gold in the TP pick up window. That often leads to people being willing to accept lower prices for commodities (and pay more for luxuries).

In short, this is what a lot of gw2economy watchers would have predicted:

• AB ML nerf -> (somewhat) higher ecto prices
• No nerf -> lower ecto prices

with new autosalvage it is even an buff of AB mulitloot
i expect that ectos now drop even far deeper in price soon.
doubt that the acutally price is the end….

With the Auric Basin multimap meta, I acquired 100 ectos in less than 3 days. So, it’s safe to say that ectos are very easy to acquire nowadays.

It’s ridiculous. AB multi-map meta has been around for a long time now, and Ecto prices were pretty stable even with all the looting. I know markets have their ups and downs, but I wasn’t expecting prices to be impacted so quickly.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

It’s ridiculous. AB multi-map meta has been around for a long time now, and Ecto prices were pretty stable even with all the looting. I know markets have their ups and downs, but I wasn’t expecting prices to be impacted so quickly.

I think it depends on what you mean by stable. If you go to Glob of ectoplasm then select ‘all’ at top left, you’ll see that it’s been on a steady downward slide since July 15th. Seen from that scale the recent drop is an intensification of what was already happening rather than something new.

The question is, what happened on July 15th? Possibly the ectos from AB finally caused the market to be oversupplied, thus causing prices to drop.

There is a reason ectos spike around the weekly raid reset…. Much of the ecto demand stems from players buying raids, majority of the raid exchanges are paid in ectoplasms.

At patch day it became apperant we need to wait another 5-8 months for the next raid and the final collection for legendary armor. In otherwords more time to collect legendary insights and thus less demand for buying a raid.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

It’s ridiculous. AB multi-map meta has been around for a long time now, and Ecto prices were pretty stable even with all the looting. I know markets have their ups and downs, but I wasn’t expecting prices to be impacted so quickly.

It’s not ridiculous — it’s “almost” predictable. People hoard stuff if they think it’s going to suddenly increase in value (or that they’ll need more) and then dump it when those concerns are proven wrong.

Markets have ups or downs when they are stable — a new release changes the equilibrium, both in actual supply|demand and psychological supply|demand. So the market will anticipate changes prior to a patch and then reset its expectations after. In business news, it’s often referred to as “market correction,” although I think that’s misleading.

Anyhow, the point is that ecto are probably going to drop some more before they start finding a new equilibrium price. And, if history is any guide, within 6-12 months, the price will steadily rise until its back to where it was before. This has happened several times in GW2 (and it happened even more often in GW1).

Mithril has dropped a lot in price too. I think largely because it’s just to easy to get these days with all the level 80 maps. I wouldn’t be surprised if we started having to sell it at merchants at some point.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

So the market will anticipate changes prior to a patch and then reset its expectations after. In business news, it’s often referred to as “market correction,” although I think that’s misleading.

It sounds better than the informal term, “Oh kitten! Do you know how much money I just lost?”

Smooth Penguin.5294:

It’s ridiculous. AB multi-map meta has been around for a long time now, and Ecto prices were pretty stable even with all the looting. I know markets have their ups and downs, but I wasn’t expecting prices to be impacted so quickly.

It isn’t likely just the AB multi-map meta.

ANet just released LWS3. This has players that had been sitting out for months returning to the game to play. And it appears the new map is very generous in awarding rares that players can salvage for ectos to sell.

New stuff means influx of returning players which means loads more drops which will yield loads more supply. It or it’s salvage will get dumped onto the TP. A supply spike will drive down prices if it exceeds daily demand.

So OP did you sell or still holding on to them?

I am perfectly fine with ecto prices dropping, still need 200 to infuse backpack = w=)

There’s actually a lot less people doing AB multimap now since new map/frac content/pvp title etc.

The problem is, most people I know have hoarded stacks and stacks of ectos and now there’s no new sink + no AB nerf means most people are probably going to sell some off if they want money. Money for what you ask? Regearing all their alts with proper AR or upgrading by buying matrices

Other people see the tanking price and sell too, thinking it’ll be the end of days for ecto which in turn causes panic sales and perpetuates a cycle making it worse than it really is. If you don’t really need money then don’t sell, there really isn’t a reason to cash out ectos when the prices are so low, it’s just not worth it.

Based on orders being filled, I think another influx and therefore reduction in ectos is due to the sudden increase in leather and cloth from the new zone. People are again crafting and selling exotics.

People are probably selling their load to stock up on stabilizing matrices, which have doubled in price (for good reason), in combination with the fact that there are no new ecto sinks with this update like Chuka

lolololol panic!

Reminds me of when Mystic Coins dropped to 50’ish silver a few weeks ago; there was all these chicken littles and people wanting to SELL SELL SELL. But if you were to just calm down and either do nothing or buy the coins that were being sold you’d be in great shape. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were people that deliberately post these trends to spread even more panic. (Not referring to this thread, but I’ve seen some blatant examples) This is insanely exploitable and no I don’t flip crap. I just find these trends amusing.

Honestly, unless you invested all your wealth in a certain thing (which you really shouldn’t), it’s no big deal. Yea, there’s that time your stack of something became useless but what about when that stack of that thingy rapidly rises in price? Can’t always win them all.

Anyhow, if you want to do ascended gear, I think it would be a good chance atm.

I believe players are returning and causing more ectos to enter the game.

However, there is nothing new to use them for — no new legendary or such.

There is an increase in supply without a corresponding increase in demand.

Also, what happened to the people complaining about inflation?

ekarat.1085:

Also, what happened to the people complaining about inflation?

They’ll still complain; they just won’t use ectos as an example. Gold:Gem ratio is a popular alternative (and the worst — there’s plenty of evidence that the conversion rate is subject more to gem shop sales and WvW server hopping than to any sort of inflation).

Remember that ecto can be manufactured – indirectly of course, but ecto is affected by the cost and availability of many items, some of those have taken quite a dip in price recently.

I have no idea what keeps ecto prices afloat. I looked in my bank recently and saw I had 300+ ecto so I made mirage. Looked again the other day and have over 250 again. Inflation?

Needed for leveling crafting. Converted into T6 dust which is used in T5→T6 mat promotion. T6 fine mats needed for specialty infusions. Plus there’s ecto gambling …

Ecto only has 2 sources: 1. salvaging rares and 2. salvaging exotics.

Some rares are more valuable than others and the most valuable types of rares are manufactured in large quantities.

With so many people returning to the game, the supply of mats used to make those rares has increased so the cost of manufacture has gone down. This has pushed down the prices of other (less desired) rares and in turn, the price of ecto.

Darn it, Gaile. Quit manipulating the ecto prices!

The Quaggans put you up to it, didn’t they? This is why we can’t have nice things.

~EW

Ardenwolfe.8590:

People came back to play the new map and flooded the market with all those delicious rares. Plus, it’s now super easy to salvage everything with one click too.

That’s precisely it.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19721

Note the volume moving average sharply going up the day following LS3 release.

The question you should really be asking is, “Why does it always ‘seem’ like salvage rates on rares drop in response.”

Everytime.

This thread makes no sense. I just checked spidy and ecto prices have been pretty stable overall for more than a year.

carabidus.6214:

This thread makes no sense. I just checked spidy and ecto prices have been pretty stable overall for more than a year.

I suggest you check again. Prices showed a steady upward climb in until June 15 where it reached about 60 silver. After that it reversed and showed a steady decline in price until a few days ago where it suddenly had a 5 silver drop in price and is now at 35 silver.

Go to graph. Select all on the left side. https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19721-glob-of-ectoplasm

carabidus.6214:

This thread makes no sense. I just checked spidy and ecto prices have been pretty stable overall for more than a year.

Really? Cause you must of looked at something other than ectos. This is the GWTP chart for the last year. 2nd one is from GW2Spidy if you doubt the GWTP one.

So what it comes down to is that I underestimated how much backstock returning players would bring. AB multi map groups bring in a steady supply of Ectos already, but the current drop in value is sheer insanity. Something like this happened before, and yes the economy will recover. I don’t know if it’s by design, or if MO bit off more than he expected when he decided to increase rewards across the board.

I find the new map good for rares aswell, vs the AB map, and its all the time vs every 2 hours, but that aside,

The massive influx of ecto is probably more down to the fact that people are not forging the rares anymore, be it they have the legendary they want, or the fact you cannot forge the newer ones, so people don’t need to gamble anymore, so they salvage the rares, back when I used to gamble the forge I could have thrown 1000 rares a week into it, now they all get salvaged, if you get more and more people doing this now, it adds up real fast to ecto being dumped into the market,

Which for now isn’t a bad thing, as it wont be long until something is added that requires a lot of it again, and prices sky rocket, its always been that way with ecto.

The ghosts in the new map drop crystalline dust. So that may have altered the price of those. Which will have an impact on ecto prices, since they salvage into dust.

If you look the price of ecto since release, they were on average between 30 and 40s. The price increase since HoT was actually very high compared to what it used to be so the drop was, I think, intended. Let it stabilize first, they may go back to their what I’d call “normal value”.

Squee Squashington.5189:

The question you should really be asking is, “Why does it always ‘seem’ like salvage rates on rares drop in response.”

Everytime.

There’s zero evidence for this. People who salvage 100s of rares per day see the same rates. Those of us who savlage only a dozen or so will see more variation, which is exactly what happens with random drop rates.

carabidus.6214:

This thread makes no sense. I just checked spidy and ecto prices have been pretty stable overall for more than a year.

Look again. The price has varied up & down by over 20 silver, from ~30s lowest buy (15 Nov 2015) to ~50s (11 Jun 2016).