Guild Wars 2

What’s the general consensus on Precursors? Is the assumption the price will go up or down with the release of HoT and the ability to obtain precursors through collections?

General consensus is that prices will go down. Question is if that is correct.

Since almost no one knows details about how precursor crafting will work, it’s a swing and a miss situation. It can go either way.

If precursor crafting is insanely hard (and/or expensive) we might see precursor prices remain the same or even rise (on the cheap ones at least).

If precursor crafting is a valid alternativ the prices should fall.

Considering a lot of people are saving up for the new legendarys or expect to finish their old ones for whom they are only missing the precursor. The trading post going crazy over the first couple of days post expansion is likely.

Unless they make precursor hunt practically impossible, prices should drop by a fair bit. The real question is the limitations? If you can gather all precursors once in a reasonable time span, then that will satisfy most players which would reduce demand on the AH precursor ALOT. If you only can make say one, then the impact wont be so hard.

If AH tradeable materials is needed, then the prices will balance out and players will raise the cost of precursor mats to match the current precursors (if nothing else out of greed, heh)… But that would probably ruin the economy, imagine if its a common material :S

I don’t know if you saw some pictures from scavenger precursor hunt, it has loads of stuff to to do but it seems fun, one of the tasks was dancing in front of queen i think it will be fun.

Precursor prices are tied intimately to T5 fine material prices (which turn into bulk rares to forge).

Precursors from collections will increase the supply, which will in turn increase demand for complementary commodities, namely T6 fine materials – which are also tied to the price of T5 fine materials. If the supply of precursors from collections is high enough, the price of T6 could force the price of forging a precursor even higher – which would crater the supply on the trading post, and raise its price.

It’s also possible that the supply from collections is modest, that T6 demand does not increase appreciably compared to that drop in demand for forging precursors, and the price of precursors on the TP drops correspondingly.

Basically there are a bunch of different moving pieces, and for different levels of the real price of collection precursors you could see the price of TP precursors go up or down.

Ensign.2189:

If the supply of precursors from collections is high enough.

Supply wouldnt increase because of that. I have little doubt that precursor hunt weapons will be accountbound…

Dawdler.8521:

Ensign.2189:

If the supply of precursors from collections is high enough.

Supply wouldnt increase because of that. I have little doubt that precursor hunt weapons will be accountbound…

Go read the blog post again, while the intermediate precursors are account bound, the final product (for the current legendaries) will be tradeable on the tp. But, you can only get each precursor once.

Dawdler.8521:

Ensign.2189:

If the supply of precursors from collections is high enough.

Supply wouldnt increase because of that. I have little doubt that precursor hunt weapons will be accountbound…

He meant the demand for t6 mats that is needed to forge the account bound precursors from collections to legendaries.

Ensign.2189:

Precursor prices are tied intimately to T5 fine material prices (which turn into bulk rares to forge).

Precursors from collections will increase the supply, which will in turn increase demand for complementary commodities, namely T6 fine materials – which are also tied to the price of T5 fine materials. If the supply of precursors from collections is high enough, the price of T6 could force the price of forging a precursor even higher – which would crater the supply on the trading post, and raise its price.

It’s also possible that the supply from collections is modest, that T6 demand does not increase appreciably compared to that drop in demand for forging precursors, and the price of precursors on the TP drops correspondingly.

Basically there are a bunch of different moving pieces, and for different levels of the real price of collection precursors you could see the price of TP precursors go up or down.

I agree, t5 mats are probably the best indicator for precursor prices. The supply of precursors from loot drops cant really be influenced by the player base but the rate of forged precursors can. After the HoT announcement, many said that precursor prices will crash but it didnt happen. The lower prices in january were subject to the big influx of cheap t5 snowflakes, which since then has dried out and prices stabilized again. Silverwastes farming still gives a high influx of t5 mats but it remains to be seen, if that high influx continues, once HoT goes live and the mayority of the player base migrates to the jungle of maguuma. Of course, it is an lvl 80 zone but will the old t5 mats still drop there in abundance to support cheaply forged precursors? Or will the loot tables introduce new mats (which I think), which are needed to craft the new legendaries/precursors?

Another big source of precursors are rare weapons from drops, which atm have a big faucet from the daily chests of world bosses. But how many people will still run the WBT when HoT comes out and how much rare weapons will drop in Maguuma?

I also think, it will take quite some time, until people start completing precursor collections in order the sell the precursors, so there wont be a sudden influx, once HoT releases. People will use their mastery points for different masteries, other than precursors, unless they intent to use that precursor for themselves.

Just for some info and to illustrate the connection between the value of t5 mats and precursors, I attached some graphs of the prices of 2 precursors (dusk and legend, upper screenshots) and 2 t5 mats (claws and totems, lower screenshots) from January14 until now: